Vladimir Putin’s image as an unassailable ‘strong man’ has been a vital component of his political narrative.
This persona, meticulously constructed over two decades, is being undermined by a series of recent events.
In the latest episode od The OSINT Bunker, the panel discuss the Russian Wagner PMC march towards Moscow and the possible fall-out of that incident, the ongoing fighting in Ukraine and the Oryx Team’s OSINT work tracking equipment losses on both sides in the conflict.
The panel includes @DefenceGeek, @geoallison and @AnAustinThing2 with a guest appearance from Jakub Janovsky of the Oryx Project (@Rebel44CZ)
George Allison touched upon this transformation in a recent episode of the OSINT Bunker podcast, stating, “I think one thing, you know, is very clear from this and that’s Putin no longer has a ‘strong man’ image.”
Over the years, Putin has been successful in building a narrative of unassailable leadership. His public persona—aided by images of him bare-chested on horseback or showcasing judo expertise—was carefully crafted to depict invincibility and unyielding control.
This paradigm shift, experts Jakub and Austin argue, has been significantly influenced by the dramatic march of the Wagner Group, a private military company, into Moscow. The spectacle not only threatened the stability of Putin’s regime but also tarnished Russia’s global reputation.
Jakub acknowledged the absurdity of the situation, saying, “I think Russia is going to look weakened and quite ridiculous.” He argued that even with the Wagner Group’s 5000 troops marching into Moscow, their impact would have been minimal due to the city’s scale: “5000 troops is not [enough] in such a large city, they could have occupied some buildings…but their forces would be either so diluted, in such a large city, or they would be controlling a very small area.”
Austin concurred with Jakub’s analysis, pointing out the ineffectiveness of the Wagner Group’s approach. In his opinion, successful coup attempts don’t aim to seize territory but to “dominate telecommunication centres,” “dominate the narrative,” and “disable or remove decision-makers.” However, despite the rapid advance of the Wagner troops, there was ample time for Russian leadership to evacuate, rendering their march ultimately fruitless.
Despite the coup’s failure, its implications have been far-reaching. It exposed the fragility of Putin’s administration and his diminished influence, both domestically and internationally. As Jakub aptly concluded, “There is a reasonable case to be made that this showed how weaker Russia is.”
These discussions provide an insightful exploration of the eroding image of Putin’s ‘strong man’ persona, revealing the seismic political shifts occurring within Russia and you can hear more by clicking here.
Like all such leaders, he will do what is necessary to survive the rest will be down to gravity.
That farcical coup or whatever it was might have done Putin some brief minor damage, but I am sure he’ll ride it out and probably do something horrific to rebuild his Stalin-esque image.
It’s depressing how as each day passes, it becomes clearer and clearer that this conflict will continue for many many years to come. The Russians will not walk away, no matter what military and financial hits they take and Ukraine will continue to fight for all their occupied land. Simply being at war (or at special military operation) is what Putin needs to continue to hold power. It’s just wishful thinking that he could be ousted. And even if he was, there’s a high chance that something even worse follows. Grim times.
… ah just give me loads of money and another 10 years and I can beat this Country – backed by most other Countries on the planet. Surely you can’t want peace, prosperity & the lives of your children.
He is hardly Stalinesque. The dweeb strives to be a Tsar Ivan the Terrible figure cursed with an unhealthy Napoleon Complex. Like Ivan he is either “terrible” or a national hero depending who one asks. Either a saintly figure and father of the new Rodina or the Antichrist incarnate, who breaks his fast by devouring Ukrainian children and puppies in equal numbers!
Had world events since 2013 turned out differently and then the Minsk agreements adhered to. The invasion of Feb 2022 would never have happened. 20/20 hindsight and a pair of rose tinted glasses are wonderful things.
A lion never needs to convince anyone that it’s a lion….
Lion. I’d say a turd never needs to convince anyone it’s a turd on account it looks like a turd, smells like a turd and is generally unpleasant in all respects.
Agreed 😂👍
Russian people want stability and order. Russia with sanctions will still thrive thanks to China. Putin’s successor will be the same as him. The downfall of Putin does not mean Russia gets closer to the West, as the west have zero influence in Russian politics.
The difference is during the Cold War Russia was still a proud country to be seriously reckoned with.
In 2023, it’s an international joke, not respected by anyone with only it’s nuclear weapons giving it any credence.
It’s more like an African tin pot dictatorship, Putin might as well wear a Generals uniform covered in medals and mirrored sunglasses.
So you agree then, Russian people want stability, not some half backed western inspired student revolt.
Don’t see anywhere in Johns answer he agrees with you! If you want a stable country with no prospect of things getting any better any time soon good luck to them! How is Russia actually thriving the only thing the Chinese want is oil and the cost of getting that out of the ground with the present price is hardly going to fill the coffers.
China want more than oil from Russia.
I’m sure the Russian people love Putin for their failing state. Rapidly reducing life expectancy. Well over a hundred thousand of their youngest men killed and another hundred thousand maimed in a futile losing war in Ukraine. I’m sure they love Putin for their corruption that is rampant leading to flatlining of investment in Russia for Russia.
Yep all things consider the Russians love him so much the intelligent and best minds left Russia already. 500,000 under 25 year old gled Russia in the last 2 years. Bravo. Your comments are not matched by facts. Russia is a country in terminal decline.
Inflation due to Brexit in the UK is progress right? How is the knife crime there these days?
How is it in Moscow? I’m sure you are well placed to know the answer to that Frostski…
Thousands and thousands of your country’s men dying in a needless war.
Inflation and knife crime.
Yes, these two are exactly the same!
No in all seriousness, I think the Wagner coup had zero effect, and if Putin does go, what will change?
I tend to agree that the Wagner ‘coup’ probably had less effect than many would wish, and also that if Putin does go there’s not going to be some dramatic Westernisation of Russia. I was just trying to point out that your comparison between the domestic issues in Russia at the moment and British inflation and knife crime statistics was a bit ridiculous, and merely deflecting the previous posters points instead of actually having an answer for them.
No in all seriousness aka I will ignore my previous stupid reply to Mr Bell and pretend to Tony it either wasn’t posted or I was joking! Sad sad lack of respect for yourself when you don’t challenge those who challenge your comment! Why not defend your Brexit and knife crime reply? We are waiting…..
Ha ha ha you’re comparing an inflation rise and a bunch of young wannabe gangsters stabbing each other with the shit pit Russia is in! Fuck me you are hilarious! Very weak comeback to Mr Bell, very weak.
Jack wrote:
It never fails to amaze me how internet agent provocateurs such as yourself always invent things in which to try and substantiate their posts. To that end please be so kind as to point to anything in that post by JC which supports your last claim that:
“”Russian people want stability, not some half backed western inspired student revolt.””
It also never fails to amaze me how so many “Internet moral highground champions” claim that all (take your pick) these people want is stability. They allude to less interference from outside agencies but in reality they point their fingers at the West. You know that West they blame for all their ills which they deem as a cess pit of depravity but whom they go begging for when they need a little spending cash.
What you really should be saying is the Russians (as well as the rest) really want is political stability. Because only once you have that can you live in peace and once you have that then country will prosper. The last I looked Russian these past 23 years has been lacking in that attribute.
excellent commentary Farouk- thanks for posting!
🙏
You’re a funny one, an interesting comparison with John in Minsk, slightly different approach, same MSB employers I would guess…..
I do agree the Russian government are revolting, sub human scumbags, is that what you mean?
“…..with only it’s nuclear weapons giving it any credence.” Much like the UK.
“…..with only it’s nuclear weapons giving it any credence.” Much like the UK ”
As Frost 002 typed on his Stalin tone 286 PC, he stared at the words on that old flickering monochrome monitor blanky, his chain-smoking MSB handler playing with his Makarov, looked over his shoulder silently, the smell of BO, vodka and cheap aftershave assaulting Frost 002’s senses….
Would this be enough to keep him from the Ukrainian front, he thought nervously, the single bare lightbulb and the cigarette smoke hanging in the air, only increasing the palpable sense of paranoia and fear in that dim damp Kremlin basement.
Next stall over, John in Minsk cleared his desk, his mission to subvert the West failed … The front line awaiting him patiently like a bird of doom…..
Stay tuned for the next chapter folks…..
😁
I am defecting, I am on the way to Latvia in my Riva, hope they let me through
He’s certainly slightly more nuanced than John in Minsk mate, trying a different approach to avoid the ‘HIMARS handshake’ perhaps…
😂😂👍
Russian people want their children alive with the possibility of grandchildren. They only look for strong leaders to keep their country together not rip it apart. You have clearly accepted that Putin must go. It will be for Russians to decide who replaces him – perhaps it is time for a new start.
Perhaps, but Russia is no democracy. The Kremlin already know who the successor is I am sure. The dream for the West is Russia pull out of Ukraine when the leadership changes and Ukraine becomes a great symbol of progress for nato and the EU, inspiring Russian citizens to topple the leadership and introduce reform in Russia. The reality is different. Western interests in supplying military aid to Ukraine will inevitably fade as Ukraine start to attack targets in Russia. A new border will be established in Ukraine and Crimea will become recognised territory of Russia, in return Ukraine become a member of Nato and the EU. What is the alternative outcome? Nuclear escalation? There is a deluded opinion that if Russia lose the conventional war, they will go home.
As you can predict the future can I have Saturdays lottery Nos?
Military aid may well fade towards and after the US Presidential election. I’m sure Russia and Ukraine have an eye on that. I can’t see European NATO countries being able to make up the difference. Stalemate will ensue if Ukraine cannot take back significant amounts of territory within the next 12 months. If that doesn’t happen the realities on the ground will dictate negotiations.
I have no crystal ball but I think it will end up near to pre-Feb’22 borders, with Russia holding on to a few more areas. In the absence of a complete collapse of their lines and leadership its difficult to see another outcome.
Time will tell.
And the frustrating issue is NATO could do so much more. They should enforce a no fly zone. If Ukraine lose an inch of territory to Russia, NATO have failed in stopping Russia. Presently the war is in a stalemate, it is not sustainable.
Stopping Russia is not the purpose of NATO unless it sets foot on NATO soil. Countries have supported Ukraine to provide it with the kit to defend itself in the face of naked aggression. If Russia are banking on the free world running out of will power that might be wishful thinking. Support will last as long as Ukrainians wish to defend their land – it might ebb and flow but the industrial capacity should not be understated.
The issue here is that with every day the Russian’s are relying on older and older kit, the troops motivation drops whilst their opponents are fighting for their own Country, their experience grows, their home grown kit becomes better and more robust and the flow of heavy armour & aircraft has only just started. Russia is in a poor position if it’s best hope is for a stalemate. The threat to Putin is from Russians not Ukrainians – will he not ultimately cut his losses and attempt to secure his position at home.
Russia will be a democracy. It is the fate of all Governments. The people will decide when.
What you are missing, is that Russia will be completely bankrupt financially well before the US presidential election. Putin is running an unsustainable deficit, financial reserves are running out fast, and they have no access to international debt due to sanctions. Even China is reluctant to catch a falling sword by bailing them out.
So Ukraine don’t actually need need to win the war on the battlefield; they just need to keep the pressure on for a few more months (to ensure Putin maintains unsustainable war spending) and the Russian war effort will inevitably collapse by itself.
There are signs of this emerging already. Putin’s dream of soviet style economic & technological independence carrying the day is pure fantasy.
Putin has always had his enemies ranging from intellectual disidents to defectors to street protestors – they have all been dealt with by assasination, poisoning or incarceration.
In the case of the Wagner Group, it is fanciful to call their ‘march on Moscow’ a coup. It was a demonstration of discontent with the regular army leadership and the defence minister, in frustration after all other approaches failed. Putin was never seriously threatened although he might have been alarmed for a few hours.
It’s all fizzled out – Wagner’s boss is ‘MIA’ (silent and ineffective), by some accounts Prigozhin’s men are either being integrated into the regular forces or are ‘hors de combat’ in tented camps. Putin has (no doubt with assistance from the Byelorussian President) solved the problem of Wagner Group’s attitude and unruliness – quickly and effectively. If anything, further anti-Putin actions by anyone has been deterred.
Putin is not going anywhere soon. He is still playing the strong leader. He has proved that can deal with even a ‘rebel’ private army of 25,000 – let alone troublesome individuals and street rabbles.
Putin’s no strong man. I’d describe him as a psychopathic murdering scum bag myself. Keen to use cowardly acts to try to twist the world around his demented view of Russia being a power ascending back to its rightful place in the world. Whereas the reality is it’s a corrupt state bereft of decency and the common values of humanity.
Now….novichok Tea anyone?
Yes, goes well with a big mac.
UK had to led the way in Ukraine with what’s being suppield . Had the other NATO members been braver from day one and more long range weapons . Tanks . High end fighter jets . Attack helicopters been given to Ukraine this war would have been over within the first month and that’s without a Ukraine navy. Putin would have been strung up in red Square. A few NATO counties like Greece and Hungary have been more than useless and imo should be kicked out NATO .
What could Greece afford to supply? Hungary on the other hand is a liability under their current leadership. Politics and leaders change though.
Greece
The priority access to the port of Alexandroupolis in Northern Greece allowed the U.S. to provide military assistance to Ukraine.[
Infantry fighting vehicles
Anti-tank weapons
Small arms
Ammunition
IT’S for you MR Putin 💣
A sad Nazi nonce, surrounded by other sad Nazis nonces with billions of stolen and corrupt assets and money! If he happens to fall from the 6th floor bungalow balcony while juggling kitchen knives and drinking a large amount of vodka, there will only follow more of the same, bent, corrupt nonces with a different name, same Nazi outlook.