Ministers have warned that Scottish independence would weaken UK and NATO security in the North Atlantic and Arctic, amid growing concern over Russian and Chinese activity in the High North.

Speaking in the Commons, Armed Forces Minister Al Carns responded to a question from Liberal Democrat MP Angus MacDonald on the UK’s responsibilities in the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, a critical maritime choke point for NATO. Carns argued that fragmentation of the UK would undermine collective defence at a time of heightened geopolitical risk.

“An independent Scotland would weaken not just the security of the UK—of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland—but the whole European security architecture and NATO as a whole,” he said, adding that such a move would come at a moment when security challenges in the North Atlantic were intensifying.

Carns said that the UK effectively had a frontline with Russia in the North Atlantic, pointing to increased Russian naval and submarine activity near critical national infrastructure. He emphasised that NATO forces closely monitor such movements and that allied vessels operate routinely in response. The Minister also set out the Government’s assessment of the changing strategic environment in the Arctic, describing the region as increasingly contested as climate change opens new sea routes and access to resources. He noted that Russia controls more than half of the Arctic coastline and has expanded its military presence by reopening Cold War-era bases and establishing a new northern joint strategic command.

“Russian submarine activity is nearing the highest levels since the Cold War,” Carns said, adding that developments in the Arctic directly affected UK security, particularly through activity in the GIUK gap involving surface and sub-surface vessels and aircraft.

Related concerns were raised in the House of Lords, where former Foreign Office minister Lord Swire questioned the Scottish National Party’s position on defence. He highlighted the apparent tension between support for Faslane as a naval base and opposition to nuclear weapons in an independent Scotland. Responding, Defence Minister Lord Coaker said that thousands of jobs in Scotland depended on the UK’s nuclear deterrent and associated submarine programmes. He also pointed to what he described as inconsistencies in the SNP’s defence policy.

“The SNP needs to be reminded that NATO is a nuclear alliance,” Lord Coaker said, noting that the party had previously opposed NATO membership before changing its stance.

Ministers in both Houses framed their comments against a backdrop of increased focus on Arctic and North Atlantic security, with the region now seen as central to NATO deterrence and the protection of undersea infrastructure linking Europe and North America.

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42 COMMENTS

  1. Wow, who knew breaking up NATO’s second biggest power and stripping NATO and the rUK of its most important naval and air bases in the North Atlantic would weaken the alliance 🤔

    I’m guessing Russia and China figured this out a while back which is why Russia paid Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage bribes and set up Radio Sputnik in Edinburgh and China built a massive consulate covered in satellite dishes in Edinburgh.

    I think the Plantaginates and Tudors had a bit of an idea how important Scotland was as well.

    Jackie Fischer also had some what of an idea when he moved most of the Royal Navy to Scotland too.

    • Well he does have a soft spot for Scotland and if it should become ‘available’ I doubt even an offer of the Crown Jewels would stop him on the basis his golf courses are in immediate danger.

    • Donald Trump is currently killing the SNP in Scotland and making the case for better together, however if you boys f**k it up down south and elect mini Trump then all bets are off.

      • ‘On the constituency vote, 19% of voters said they would back Reform UK, compared to 16% for Scottish Labour. The SNP remains comfortably ahead on 34%. On the regional list vote, the SNP is on 28%, while Reform UK and Scottish Labour are both on 18%’

        The jocks are doing a good job of royally stuffing themselves unaided….health and education hopeless, ingestion of harmful chemicals worst in Europe….deja vu all over again.

        No wonder President Trump is buying Greenland.

  3. Very true though Starmer’s silence on the far more immediate dangers of Trump invading Greenland and completely upsetting the balance in the high north rather says everything we need to know about his abject cowardice and attraction to easy targets. Fact is nearly all NATO arctic capabilities lie in Canada and Europe. US military are woefully ill equipped or trained or have the moral for such a job. But then that’s not the point of his threats is it. Like Hitler this will not be his last demand so we better grow a pair while we still can.

    • Well the new US ambassador to Iceland apparently just told everyone it would not be long before he was the governor of Iceland.. Iceland did not take it well.

      • Europe has several countries dedicated to Arctic Operations

        Unlike the US forces dedicated to Arctic Operations, Europes are actually stationed in the Arctic circle as opposed to Fort Drum New York which is about the same latitude as Italy but with no mountains.

      • “The US has an entire division. Europe doesn’t.” Bit of a dishonest comparison.
        The 11th Airborne has two brigades, 4 Infantry Battalions and two Cavalry Squadrons on Humvee between them. Just Norway’s Brigade North and the 19th Arctic Brigade from Sweden match that, with 3 All Arms mechanised battalions each. That’s before you start counting other Swedish formations that would get task organised into their division, or any Finish Units or the Royals.

        • Unlike Europe, the American soldiers are full time. Also unlike Europe, the US military is still a serious place, with serious capability. Talk to soldiers or Royal Marines that have done a stint with a US unit, it’s a completely different tempo. UK trains like it will fight in a few years, the US prepares like it will fight tomorrow.

  4. The Scottish electorate is split 50/50, so I wonder why UKDJ keeps on worrying about independence? Unless 51% is thought to be enough. When joined the EU (Common Market back then) we need a 2/3 majority. To leave just a simple majority – which is why it was a swindle and hasn’t worked. I hope the Scots would realise than unless you have 2/3 majority nothing is doable.

    • Nope the issue is if there is a referendum it will be a simple majority referendum and china and Russia will expend and utter fortune to flood the media channels with independence propaganda…. And the reality is if something is said enough times people will believe it..

    • As you rightly say, the EEC referendum, when so many of us voted in favour, was all about a common market.

      Nobody voted for a non democratic anti business pro net zero European Union and so, when given the opportunity, in the absence of any real compromise from Brussels, we then voted to leave.

      As a consequence, during the confected ‘pandemic’, we (effectively via the private sector) were able to vaccinate the entire country a great deal more quickly than the eu vaccination program. That would have saved.many lives, had the vaccines actually prevented contracting the virus or passing it on and, more particularly, had SARS CoV 2 been anything more than a novel common cold coronavirus (as the now Head of the U.S. National Institutes of Health confirmed through sero-prevalence studies).

      So we have a great deal more freedom of action…but, at the moment, we lack the leadership or will to exploit leaving the eu.

      But we will…

        • Well, if you are not on the same planet as the distinguished and cerebral Head of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, then you inhabit a very strange planet indeed.

          • I suggest you do some real research… “As of 2026, the scientific and peer-review community remains deeply divided over the pandemic safety views of Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, currently the Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). While he is championed by some for his focus on the socioeconomic harms of lockdowns, mainstream scientific bodies and prominent virologists have largely rejected his core strategies as unscientific and dangerous. ”
            I’m on planet earth… maybe you’re the extraterrestrial??!!

            • You haven’t looked at his sero-prevalence studies, hsve you?

              And you certainly haven’t looked at the myriad other sero-prevalence studies worldwide that confirm his findings.

              99.95% recovery for those under.seventy years of age.

              You don’t even know who Profesdor John Nicholls is, a Swine Flu and SARS coronavirus expert, who pronounced SARS CoV 2 as a novel common cold coronavirus 06 Feb 2020.

              You haven’t consulted the findings of Britain’s own Common Cold Unit that first identified the coronavirus family. The treatment they recommended was rest for two days to allow the immune system to do its work.

              But you share your ignorance with countless others. So that’s okay then, isn’t it? Give yourself a big pat on the back. I mean that ignorance only cost the country £500 billion…

              Well done anyway…not really…

              • In a spirit of helpfulness:

                ‘In April 2020, Bhattacharya and others conducted a study to measure the prevalence of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Santa Clara County, where Stanford is located. The key finding: “The estimated population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection may be much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.” Every virus has an infection fatality rate that is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of infections. If the number of deaths were known and the number of infected people were higher than previously estimated, mathematics dictated that the infection fatality rate was lower, meaning the virus was less deadly and less scary than repeated media messages communicated.’

              • “The best estimates of covid infection fatality come from seroprevalence studies, which measure the fraction of a population with specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies – providing evidence of past infection. Seroprevalence studies provide better evidence on the total number of people who have been infected than do case reports or positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test counts. The latter both miss infected people who are not identified by the public health authorities or do not volunteer for RT- PCR testing (Cevik et al., 2020). According to a comprehensive meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, worldwide, for people under the age of 70, the infection survival ratio is 99.95%.

          • Dr. Bhattacharya…eighteenth director of the National Institutes of Health…Stanford graduate, B.A., M.A., Ph.D., and M.D. from Stanford, focused on issues from medicine to issues of public health to research to economics, and health economics. So a very wide range. Over 170 published papers. Has spent time at everywhere from RAND to the National Bureau of Economic Research, in terms of the economics part of this, as well as at Stanford. And has spent time on population aging, issues of chronic disease, as well as with a focus on vulnerable populations. Born in Kolkata, India.

            • And a lot of equally eminent people (and maybe be better scientists?) think he’s wrong. You have a narrow, unscientific, way of dealing with the subject and so there’s not much point in engaging with you. For instance your 99.95% survival rate isn’t wrong, per se, but you seem to think that it’s a clincher. It isn’t. Things are always more complicated and nuanced. He runs the institution he does as political appointee. Never something that fills me with confidence. Compare that with the UK’s CMO
              The UK’s Chief Medical Officer (CMO) is appointed through an external recruitment process, often following an open competition, and is a senior member of the Civil Service, with the final appointment supported by the Prime Minister and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). They must be a qualified, registered medical practitioner with significant leadership experience, providing independent advice on public health to government ministers and acting as a key link with the broader medical profession.
              Key Steps & Requirements:
              External Recruitment: The process involves advertising the senior role externally, ensuring a wide pool of experienced candidates.
              Senior Civil Service Appointment: The successful candidate becomes a senior civil servant, reporting to the Permanent Secretary at the DHSC.
              Prime Ministerial Support: The appointment requires the backing of the Prime Minister.
              Professional Qualifications: Candidates must be registered medical practitioners with substantial experience in healthcare leadership, public health, and financial planning.
              Independent Advisor Role: The CMO provides independent, expert advice to ministers on public health, policy, and research, bridging government and the medical community.
              In essence, it’s a merit-based, competitive appointment for a highly qualified senior doctor, approved at the highest government levels, to serve as the nation’s chief medical advisor.

              • The blustering perennial catch all of the confused and muddle headed: ‘complicated and nuanced’

                You have just summed up why the CMO and the entire health system during the confected ‘pandemic’ in this country was so hopeless. Talk to the British Army medics who built, so swiftly and efficiently, the ‘Nightingale’ hospitals. Get their views on the NHS response.

                Mortality? Read the Amnesty report ‘As If Expendable’. You haven’t even heard of it, have you?

                Then consult the Office for National Statistics and compare average age of mortality from ‘covid’ with average life expectancy for both men and women in this country. The average figures for both are pretty much identical.

                Compare and contrast 2020 with other bad ILI (Influenza Like Illness) years. Britain has an ILI crisis with monotonous regularity. We even tried to have another one this year…but no-one is listening to the overhyped silliness any longer.

                Read the peer reviewed medical papers showing the common cold to be more dangerous than influenza to the elderly and infirm.

                And come back when you know what you are talking about.

  5. Short of a UDI situation (unlikely), Westminster would have to give legal authority to a Scottish Government to hold another vote on Independence, and there’s zero evidence of any of the parties in London allowing such a vote. So why is this a story?

    • The risk is ( and it’s small) that the SNP join a coalition government in a minority parliament on the provision it gets a referendum.. and I can see a real chance of a minority parliament in the next election cycle…..

      • Well then the other parties have choices don’t they, first up if they value the UK, they can refuse and go for another election, failing that set criteria for both the calling of a vote and what the margin should be, and after that actually campaign. Or before that in this cycle actually convince a majority of Scots that the UK is better than an alternative.

        But the constant articles on something that has an extremely remote chance, and requiring several dominos to even start, let alone finish, is a waste.

    • I doubt if I’m the one not knowing what I’m talking.. Your arguments are so erratic, jumbled and jerky… it all makes sense to you, I’m sure. Carry picking is the not science. But there we go. This is me signing over and out and changing changing frequency! Happy landings!

    • I suppose the editorial staff are based in Scotland. Scottish ferries are sort of militarily important. But so is all infrastructure. Why not look at HS2, road building,… or perhaps let’s not go there!! The real strategic hole in the UK is the fact we could provide a great deal more of our own food. But because agriculture is a tiny part of the GDP it is ignored. But then I’m a farmer’s son and would say that, wouldn’t I?! Oh no, now we’ll get the “all farmers are seriously rich” brigade yapping!

  7. As a fervent Unionist, I am against the SNP and the pursuit of any break up of the UK, however as a democracy the UK must respect the rights of those Scots who want Independence to pursue such a goal. Having said that, a break up would be disastrous for the British people in every respect. I would think that most British people understand this and that the arguments against are strong. One can have the best of both worlds within the UK. Obviously the Russians will do all in their power to create ill feelings that promote the destruction of the Union- many, especially the sinister Putin are still pissed off about the breakup of the USSR and are bent on taking it out on us and others!

  8. What a laugh, the continuing none debate whilst replaying Braveheart. Without English taxpayers money Scotland would be even more of a basket case than it is now. Ship building besides, what has it got to offer the UK other than convenient basing? Still, Starmer is letting the Chicoms build a large spy base in London, refusing to fund defence over welfare, recalling vets up to 65 to patrol the nation with broom handles…..
    Said it before, this country is banjaxed, totally.
    Love and hugs
    Light Infantry xx

  9. No country is ever independent as America now knows regarding Greenland.
    Its a pipe dream pushed largely by politicians that wish to increase public spending on non productive bureaucratic jobs and the gravy train
    given by the tax payer.

    The venom on this and many other websites is evidence that there are far more important issues like Discovery, Inventing things, Making for wealth,
    and Exploiting for exports – the independents seem not to give a DIME!

    Opinions should have empirical foundations rather than emotional make believe attractions. Its starts in primary school where the “God of choice”
    in doing anything we like, is rampant. Learning wealth creation via Science and Mathematics requires hard graft which most of our lazy politicians know
    little of and is a contributory factor to their usual career failures. That is one reason why Mr Swinney and his like spend so much time talking about
    – its all they are capable of.

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