Rumours circulating on secure social media “east of the Balkans” are beginning to suggest that Vladimir Putin may not be as secure as President of the Russian Federation as he might think he is.
“Mad Vlad”, as the tabloids are wont to call him these days, is being circled by the vultures who are the siloviki (the ‘strong men’) in the Kremlin who are reportedly planning and preparing a change of control.
This appears to be being prompted by the desire to find an exit from the increasingly embarrassing Ukraine debacle. The scenario being wargamed would seem to be this: any planned escalation of military operations in Ukraine by Russia will be halted; Putin will retire due to a sudden and debilitating illness (real or pretend); and Russia will seek to negotiate some sort of successful termination of the war that will satisfy their political elite and general public.
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In return, Ukraine will agree to opt for a non-NATO security arrangement, whether that is as part of an EU defence structure or some other body. No doubt Russia will ideally like to hold on to its territorial gains as part of this negotiated peace compromise, but I don’t think Ukraine is any mood for giving up any of its territory at the moment. After all, they are winning now, and hope to be able to sustain their success; they will not settle for the status quo ante bellum, I suspect, but might, just might, settle for the pre-2014 status quo, before the annexation of Crimea and part of the Donbas.
And who might replace Putin as President? Step forward one Nikolai Patrushev, politician, security officer and intelligence officer, who has been secretary of the Security Council of Russia since 2008. Not particularly well known internationally, he’s probably seen as an ‘acceptable face’ or stalking horse, internally at least, in any exit game for Russia from the Ukraine fiasco. One of Putin’s inner circle, he is understood to be one of the President’s closest advisers and an influential figure in Russia’s national security policies.
His accession might, however, turn out to be an out of the frying pan into the fire moment for the West. The seventy-one year old has been consistently hawkish in his public views, especially with regard to the USA, since then-prime minister Putin lobbied his appointment as director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in 1999.
However, Patrushev has not always been as hostile toward the West as he is today. In fact, he was once seen as so constructive in his attitudes toward the US that in 2010 Jim Jones, Barack Obama’s national security adviser, was happy to speak of him as his friend. Patrushev was also one of the few top Russian officials who did not initially support the immediate recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” as independent following their annexation by Russia in 2014.
But he has since proved to be wholly supportive of Putin’s “special military operation” which launched into Ukraine in February this year, publicly justifying the invasion and promoting Moscow’s war aims during a number of trips and interviews. Such public demonstrations of support illustrate that Patrushev feels happy and secure to explain what Putin’s thoughts and strategy vis a vis Ukraine are, whatever they may be.
If Patrushev does come to become President in the fullness of time, his main strength may be that he is not Putin; close to him in thought and deed, yes, but not him. It’s hard to envisage President Zelensky of Ukraine sitting down across the negotiating table from President Putin of Russia, but Patrushev may be another matter, perhaps seen as a lesser evil with whom peace talks might be just palatable.
All this is conjecture, of course, but the vibes coming out of eastern Europe suggest there may be some truth in the rumours. We’ll have to wait and see, but from a Russian point of view, the accession of a replacement to their current President, who is rightly vilified globally, might just secure them the first tentative steps on the path to rehabilitation in the eyes of the rest of the world?
This article first appeared in the Express and has been published here with the authors permission.
Things are looking pretty bad for Putin. His only hope now is that Trump gets re-elected. I’m not optimistic about the UK’s relationship with the Russian state though. I think it’s broken for a generation.
Russia has respected military strength in its view points for many years. The uk has been on a decline in strength and importance since the end of ww2 in there eyes.
What on Earth does your first sentence mean? Your second sentence is a bit ropey too. Check your spelling.
Is it spelling or grammar when you put a real word in the wrong context?
If you can say what words or the wording you have a problem with that would be helpful.
The first sentence means Russia’s leadership especially under putin views countries with a strong leader and strong military with more respect than a country with a weak or declining military.
The second sentence is stating that since WW2 the UK forces have got smaller and the UK goes influence/empire has got smaller from a Russian view point.
Not sure what your issue is so if you can post what it is that would be helpful.
One final point I’m not stating this is my view.
The uk has been on a decline in strength and importance since the end of ww2
That must be why Putin is fixated on this country, as are the Iranians. It is either habit or some other reason – fear perhaps?
Putin concerns himself about us because we are a large European economy who have stepped up in supporting Ukraine. That concern is not unique. Germany and France have not stepped up the same way so his actions against them are different.
Unlike Germany, we haven’t been dependent on Russian fossil fuels, so turning off the gas is Putin’s way of putting pressure on Germany. France has run down its military in much the same way Britain has and has far less political and public will to support Ukraine. Their companies are less keen to divest in Russia. Putin’s manipulation of social media to promote indifference is more effective there.
Italy is increasing its support for the Ukraine with the change in regime, and I’d expect Russian grey zone actions against them to ramp up.
Russia I think still sees Germany as it’s main way of dealing with Europe and gaining income so is less likely to fling comments at them. I think Germany has done quite a bit for Ukraine and continues to do so. It appears their laws, politics make it a bit more complicated to gift weapons. They have their own issue with the Swiss ammo to sort out. It’s a bit we will sell you ammo but don’t use it for its intended purpose. Frances best contribution must be its artillery guns. So long as lots of countries keep giving some items it all adds up.
Thank you Jon. My thoughts were focussed on Putin’s early career, his time in the K.G.B. in East Germany. I saw his animosity towards this country expressed forcibly long ago before these recent events, and have always wondered if the British put one over on him back then.
It’s amazing how many people have to keep bringing up the fact we are not an empire anymore even though we have not had an empire for 70 years.
Iran has a historical axe to grind with Britain, all about being shafted decades ago over oil. Putins guru Dugin, and his KGB past influence his attitude to Britain. And Britain’s support for Zelensky. You have the British Army training Ukrainian troops and the equipment sent. Johnson did not help either, the pathetic showboating early on influenced many on both sides. Frankly, when we needed level headed and pragmatic politicians to resolve a crisis? We had a flag shagging narcissist who made it worse. And one who said sweet FA about Crimea in 2014.
Deflection. And your point is?
It is not deflection. If you do not want reaction do not post. Quite simple eh?
Deflection from the question of the origin of Putin’s long term animosity to the U.K. I shall of course trust you on the matter of simple.
😂 Arrogance abounds 😂 Is that you Shaun????
The Ukes rate Johnson highly, as I do for his early and unequivocal support.
Not sure what you mean, russia is much more diminished than the UK since WW2, you could easily switch uk and russia in your sentences and it means the same. Btw UK GDP is much higher than Russia, even with our current issues, so how’s our decline in comparison to russia?
Actually if your looking at relative levels the UK decline bottomed out in the 70’s.
Since then things have gotten much better economically and militarily. Since the early 2000’s the UK has occupied the number 2 and 3 military spending position for the majority of the time.
In 1935 we were not in the top 5.
I’m guessing though your just looking for something to bash the “old empire” with again though rather than any analysis of the situation.
Also just want to point out that on current demographic projections by the end of the century we will be the biggest country in Europe, bigger than Russia or Germany. That’s not a position we have ever held before.
I think Putin respects that fact, indeed it’s the main reason he is going to war in Ukraine.
UK bottomed out in the 1970s….since then things have gotten much better… militarily…. Really? Can’t agree that.
Oh, it’s you and your thoroughly debunked Trump ❤️ Russia troll.
I believe the USA intelligence community has pined the leaking of Hilary Clinton’s emails on Russia. There is reasonable debate as to whether that was pro Trump or just anti Clinton. She has been hawkish on Putin and Russia for a while. She seems to have a well trained eye for deceitful men.
Trump does represent the strand in US politics that is most Putin like. Socially conservative, hostile to international organisations, token support for human rights. Support base of religious right and nationalists veering into outright racists, violently anti democratic.
The Russian media liked him and other such figures. Not least because except for scoring points against Biden he seems cool on Ukraine.
Putin goes for anything that promotes division and discord in the West. As divisive as Hilary was, she was not a patch on Trump.
Not that our country has anything to to be happy about, given government’s fingers-in-the-ears approach to Russian meddling in Brexit.
Interesting, Russia has a massive problem with Ukraine. It’s week long adventure to replace the government has went horribly wrong and what ever way they get out of there it reflects badly on them.
Simple facts are they can’t take over Ukraine.
Ukraine is most likely not willing to give up territory. They didn’t agree to it for the past 8 years and now they see that they actually stand a good chance of getting all the territories back under their control.
Now if Ukraine’s advances stall and public opinion in Ukraine changes maybe giving up land might become palatable but just now they say no.
There is also not trust in any thing Russia says and it would take some a lot of gestures from Russia to change that view.
Best case for all sides is Russia pulls out completely and asks for an end to sanctions. Ukraine under international monitoring can agree to hold free elections and allow pro Russia parties to stand etc in the regions held just now. Any more than that is simply not acceptable to Ukraine.
@ Monkey Spanker. I agree. Both Russia and Ukraine are facing horrendous challenges and demographics. Ukraine will get US and EU help. Russia is turning slowly into the next Iran, or even North Korea. Meanwhile, China will be our next problem. Autocrats do only respect strength. Unfortunately HMGs governments of late have been looking a bit incompetent!
Ukraine will surely also continue to get UK’s help, in addition to that from US and EU!
Fingers crossed. The main worry will be the USA cutting back. Hopefully even if they do Ukraine has enough kit to keep going. It will be up to the rest of the supporters to fill the gaps with resupply.
Worst case just now is support for Ukraine drying up and Russia taking the lead again.
@ Graham Moore absolutely. And rightly so. And from other democracies as well.
Even though we’ve changed ministers as frequently as changing underwear, our support for Ukraine has been unwaivering. It doesn’t matter who is at the top, the mood music on Ukraine remains. There’s a strength in that.
You know, I’m starting to find increasing reassurance in our renowned bumbling British way, not that you’d disagree in essence.
Sure, there’s many a frustration caused by the inefficiencies adherence to democratic process engenders, but I’d not exchange those for the single minded path to glory increasingly adopted worldwide by authoritarianism – generally just a cover for kleptocracy. And regardless, outwardly strong but ultimately brittle.
At least our system is multi-branched, more flexible, more tree like. So can bend to extenal pressures but not collapse under them – unless its core becomes rotten. But with our elected representatives needing to regularly look over their shoulders at the closeness of the electorate, there is the opportunity to put a brake on any natural tendencies to self interest (that’s the theory 😑).
Can fully appreciate a UK need for a little, say, German business efficiency, whilst incorrigibly suspicious of greater moves to central control in support of that efficiency. Certainly without being asked beforehand.
Sorry, old bloke rambling.
Rgs
Agreed MS & I had no trouble at all understanding your first post.
Agreed MS, let’s hope for the best case you have outlined.
“And who might replace Putin as President? Step forward one Nikolai Patrushev…”
Did you just foreshadow Patrushev’s assassination?
Worth reading: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-dangerous-decline?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Russia%E2%80%99s%20Dangerous%20Decline&utm_content=20221101&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017
If you speak Russian and pay attention to how Mr Patrushev rose to where he is now you will realise that he is a Putin crony and has little inclination to, or chance of, seizing power. One of the reasons that Putin is so powerful and has been around for so long is that he has employed tactics of “divide and rule” and “appoint and anoint” to make sure that everyone in power owes their power to him, and that no-one has the power or support base to topple him alone. Fortunately for Ukraine and the West, this also means that most of them are hopelessly incompetent (think Boris and Truss’ cabinets, but even worse), and now you start to understand why the Russian state has proved totally incapable of waging what isn’t even “total war”.
Also putin constantly destroying any opposition to his leadership/party for years now causes problems with having a suitable opposition that could take over.
If putin goes it could create a lot of infighting and a power struggle or vacuum.
I don’t think the argument is that Patrushev will sieze power, but the siloviki will depose Putin and use Patrushev as the new front man. If not him, someone else who will promote their interests.
The analogy that comes to mind is when Caligula was assassinated an attempt was made to restore the Roman republic. The Emperor’s guard, the Praetorians, fearing they would lose their privileged jobs, found a reluctant Claudius hiding in the palace and made him the next Emperor.
You can’t turn Russia into a liberal democracy without considering the strong men.
To be honest I don’t think you can turn russia into a liberal democracy full stop. It’s one of the abiding failures of the west foreign policy ( especially in Iraq and Afghanistan) to really get and live with the reality that a lot of the world has little interest in western liberal democracy as a style of government…yes they may wish to overthrow a dictator they don’t like, but that’s only to instal one of the ones they like.
Don’t forget Prigohzin, head of Wagner wankers! Why do you think Wagner are mad recruiting, deploying the dross straight away with minimum training, and always pushing forward (regardless of losses) a few metres, or the odd kilometres or so! To simply show Wagner as the “best” of the Russian Mil on operations in Ukraine and give the Wagner head shed the political kudos to be seen as the only leader, and organisation to be prosecuting the war in Ukraine and therefore as a serious contender to replace the head shed nonce Nazi position currently held by Putin! Simples!
I’m sure that every Russian has considered the possibility of some form of transfer of power. Clearly this will have nudged the population further towards a desire to see the last of the strong men. Gorbachev was a missed opportunity. If there were another one of those waiting in the wings I’m sure a proper deal could and should be done this time to guarantee everyone’s safety.
The response to another strong man would require a withdrawl from Ukraine & NATO membership to facilitate the funds for the rebuilding of the destroyed cities. The cost to Russia would only likely be mitigated by true democracy and disarmament.
I think in the short term it will have to be another hard liner so his age may be a good point. Let the change in name allow a deal without loss of face. Keep the information war on, and when his successor is chosen then maybe someone more reasonable.
You might be right. Russia are clearly looking for a winter truce holding onto what they currently have as a basis for a deal. The Ukrainians might successfully negotiate that to pre 2014 borders & Putin could take that as a victory. The long term goal of the Russian people is likely to be true democracy as that is the only path to prosperity. The only question is how long will that take & who can lead them down that path.Autocratic regimes are not as popular as they once were so the hard liner may struggle to maintain control.
Vlad to get a sudden debilitating illness?
Severe deceleration trauma from a third floor window perhaps?
That illness is nearly as common as poorly discarded cigarettes in ammo dumps.
Ukr will want it all back and will get it along with all of ivans frozen bank and cash assets to rebuild with.
Sanctions will stay in place because it will leave ivan hamstrung and unable to rearm except from the usual suspects.
I can see a relaxation with Oil & Gas possibly in exchange for some form of disarmament with perhaps the profits from that going to rebuilding Ukraine.
Anyone but Putin gives Russia options, they will have their fall guy and will allow some degree of reset.
True. It is difficult to know if the Russian people will want major change. They may already be at breaking point.
Sadly history shows as a population they rarely turn the desire for change into any meaningful outcomes. If ever there was a race who loved being lead by “strongmen” it is the Russ.
I agree. They seem uncomfortable with any type of freedom.
To be honest, only in that they may not see Putin as the strong man anyone. Effectively even after its revolution Russia has only ever replaced one Tsar with another. It’s the typo of government the majority of Russians in the end believe is best for their nation.
Putin is going nowhere – in every sense.
Stuart’s analysis is in danger of precipitating Nikolai Patrushev’s accidental fatal fall from a window if Putin finds him a threat.
Russia needs to stop its criminal aggression before we decide that Russia deserves, very much, the idiom Bomber Harris pronounced when he said Germany entered the war thinking they could bomb everyone else but escape bombing on their own territory in return.
Ukraine & Europe have shown remarkable retraint, but it does have limits.
I don’t think it’s restraint it’s fear of a very large nuclear arsenal attached to a first use policy If Russia has an existential threat placed on it overseen by a dictator who is a bit to far from reality for most people’s comfort. I’m sure Ukraine would love to in an unrestrained way bomb that crap out of the Russian infrastructure supplying the war effort, but in reality we al suspect what that would likely mean in response. So Ukraine has been limited to actions that could be white washed as acts of independent freedom fighters etc.
To lighten the tone a bit does anyone else think ‘ Mad Vlad and the slobbering orcs has to be the best ever name for a thrash metal/ punk band ?!
Mad Vlad? More like Sad Vlad, to my mind. I think any relaxation of Western sanctions will need Russia to agree to reduce its nuclear warhead stockpile. Putin needs to pay a price for all those threats to use nuclear weapons.