NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday stressed the importance of continued NATO Allied support to Ukraine as it faces Russia’s war of aggression.
Addressing the Financial Times’ Global Boardroom event via video link, Mr Stoltenberg said the conflict would likely enter a quieter phase over winter but that Russia is showing no sign of seeking a peaceful end to the conflict.
“Russia is trying to freeze the conflict” in order to “regroup and launch a bigger offensive later on because Ukraine now has the momentum,” Mr Stoltenberg said. He reiterated that Ukraine would decide on the timing and contents of any negotiation with Russia.
“The more we want a peaceful solution, the more urgent it is that we provide military support to Ukraine,” he said. Mr Stoltenberg spoke to the Editor of the Financial Times, Roula Khalaf.
Asked about the possibility of peace agreements, Stoltenberg said that “Russia has shown no sign of engaging in negotiations which are respecting the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” but insisted that it was not up to Brussels to decide.
“It has to be Ukraine that decides when and the conditions for negotiations,” he said at the event.
Back in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled that he was preparing for a prolonged war, acknowledging that “this might be a long process”.
Russia is hoping to freeze the conflict in the hope that in 2024 the U.S. will get a new administration which might scale-back support for Ukraine. While support has been generally non-partisan so far, there are the the usual extremists in the Republican Party (eg Rand Paul) who want to curtail support. Although many countries have contributed funds and weapons to Ukraine, those provided by the U.S. dwarfs these.
If U.S. support for Ukraine ended, then it’s chances of recovering all its territory would be greatly diminished.
Putin can’t win ,and yet he keeps been a right pain in the 🤗
Its important Ukraine keeps up the tempo during winter and keep stretching the Russians.
A little off topic but 10 months in and I do wonder when Ukraine will get western jets, having them for the winter could have really helped reduce pressure on ground forces. Even if there was a ceasefire Ukraine needs an airforce and it will be made up of Western aircraft. We’ve pretty much supplied them with everything else.
He’s right. I just hope Ukraine can push them back
What is currently happening in Ukraine is most interesting in that the situation on the ground has turned into a huge game of poker. The Ukraine did just that when it bluffed Moscow into thinking that its main objective would be to recapture Kherson, then after Moscow relocated the vast majority of its best troops there, the Ukraine fixed them into place, by launching a weak attack and then cutting the bridges across the river, allowing it to launch its counter attack in Kharkiv, where in 48 hours they pushed back the Russians around 50 miles (since then they have gained an extra 30 miles), this they followed by then moving their focus to Kherson, where due to the cutting of supply lines, Moscow found its position there untenable and they ended up pulling out lock stock and barrel from that side of the river.
Since the initial gains Moscow made up to the end of March, Moscow has achieved very little, yes it has made gains in the Donbas, but for an army built around fast deep strikes in enemy territory since the end of March all its advances across the Ukraine have measured around 100 feet a day. Look at Bakhmut Moscow has been trying to take it for these past 5 months, according to the Russian SOP, a BTG should be fixing the defenders whilst additional BTGs out flank them, but the thing is Moscow is no longer using mass tank tactics like we saw at the start of their campaign. Tanks supported by infantry, but instead what we are now seeing from the Russians is infantry supported by Tanks. Which points in the direction that Moscow has come to the conclusion that its mainstay MBT (the T72B3) is extremely vulnerable to Anti-armour missiles, hence the slow pace of Russian advances since April simply because Ivan can’t move as fast with his plates of meat, then armour designed for rapid mobility .
So the hints of a new front to be opened from Belarus , well seeing as the Ukrainians are now adept at taking on tanks with ATGM and the troops manning those tanks are relatively untrained (hence the 300K press gang) are we looking at a blood bath in the making? So back to that game of poker. Since Moscow was kicked out of Kherson, it has been on the backfoot simply because it has lost a lot of trained men and equipment, the only advances it has made is a few hundred feet in front of Bahkmut and just in front of Donetsk city in the town of Mar’inka which is 14 miles from the centre of Donetsk city. Which explains why Moscow needs to capture Bahkmut simply to be able to say look we are winning to an increasingly growing war weary public who were fed a diet of a 3 day special mission and have seen nothing but:
defeat (kyiv)
defeat (Chernihiv and Sumy)
defeat (landship strikes)
defeat (Moskova)
defeat (Crimean airbase strikes)
defeat (Snake Island)
defeat (Kerch Bridge)
defeat (Sevastopol Harbour)
defeat (Kharkiv)
defeat (Kherson)
So as mentioned it is the Ukrainians who have most of the upper hand across the country regards moving forward and currently they are advancing in the north of the country and making it look like that they have their sights on Melitopol of late they have been numerous strikes on ammo dumps, artillery pieces roads, bridges and as of the other day a Hotel used by Moscow for R&R, Moscow knowing how weak it is, has been building defensive lines all across the south on the otherside of Kherson with one on the isthmus which joins Crimea to the mainland . The irony here is just as Moscow sent its best troops to Kherson, it has done exactly the same with the troops it pulled out of Kherson by sending them to Bahkmut. If The Ukraine does start a new offensive in the south and takes Melitopol, they cut the Crimea off from the land corridor it also put them in a position to target the kerch bridge from a much shorter distance cutting the other major link to the Crimea. If that was to happen Putins position as leader would become dicey (might explain why there are reports he and his besties have been buying up land in Venezuela)
So send troops and equipment to Belarus in which to give the impression that you are going to have another go at Kyiv. It would force the Ukraine to keep a sizable force in the north, a force that it would need to take and hold any thrust towards melitopol. Now here is where it gets very interesting virtually the entire northern Ukrainian border with Belarus is a thick belt of marsh land (Pinsk Marshes) with very few roads crossing it during WW2 both the Germans and Russians had to work around it and we saw similar in feb when Russian forces had to go round it, that means bottle necks and unlike feb, this time the Ukrainians will be ready and they have already dug defensive lines .
Another thing is the Ukraine have become adept (with western Aid) at taking out cruise missiles and loitering munitions (the attack the other day of 13 LM saw 13 shot down) Moscow knows this and may try to stun the Ukrainians into submission by launching a huge devastating ballistic missile attack (of which they have supposed to have purchased quite a few hundred off of Iran and which is why the US is looking at supplying Kyiv with a Patriot missile system and France and Italy with SAMP/T)
if they are all launched over a few days at civilian targets, Kyiv may be forced to sign a ceasefire by western leaders in which to stop the death toll. Or even sue for peace, now if Kyiv refuses (as I suspect it would), Moscow’s aim may be to sever links between the west and the Ukraine thus cutting all aid. The thing is any such move would give Putin the breathing space he desperately needs in which to allow his troops to consolidate their positions inside Ukraine , allow him to train and build his forces up again affording him a position of strength for the future.
I’m not saying that the Russians will or won’t invade only they know the answer to that, but as I stated at the start this has become a huge poker game with both sides guessing where the next move will take place.