In a recent conversation among defence experts on ‘The OSINT Bunker‘ podcast, China’s military capabilities and global logistics were put under the spotlight following the Sudan crisis.
In Season 5, Episode 5 of the podcast ‘Countries in Crisis’, defence experts discuss the ongoing civil war in Sudan and the Khartoum Airlift, updates on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the ongoing crisis in Haiti and its impact on the rest of South America.
The episode features @DefenceGeek and @AnAustinThing2, with a guest appearance from @All_Source_News. You can listen at the link below for Spotify or by clicking here for RSS.
The discussions highlighted the limitations of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in executing complex evacuations, as compared to their Western counterparts.
One expert, @All_Source_News, stated, “I think a lot of observers were looking to see, okay, is this sort of the moment where China deploys military forces substantially to do an evacuation, because they have a military presence in Djibouti? And they’ve participated in the anti-piracy coalitions since the early 2010s.”
However, he added, it was during the Sudan crisis that “we saw ships of the PLA Navy deployed to the port of Sudan, right, forcing Chinese citizens to basically drive all the way and even their embassy to drive all the way to the port of Sudan to launch that evacuation.”
DefenceGeek (Jon) replied, “We’ve witnessed the US and many of the Western Allies having to evacuate embassies in the likes of Afghanistan, and Iraq. And we’ve seen it in Ukraine and so on in the last just the last few years. Whereas it’s fair to say China hasn’t really had something as significant as this to deal with before.”
The conversation revealed that China’s reliance on naval forces for evacuation, instead of air operations like the US and France, showcases the PLA’s limited capabilities in handling such crises. @All_Source_News emphasised that “the Sudan crisis should cause some pause, and acknowledgement that the PLA is nowhere near the capabilities that a lot of Western militaries have, and executing very complex embassy evacuations and citizen evacuations.”
DefenceGeek further elaborated, “your point about people overestimating the PLA’s military capability is a very, very good point, because it’s something we’ve already seen with Russia, we had this genuine thought process that Russia was a very capable and very competent military for so long. And the last year of fighting in Ukraine is very much showed that perhaps that wasn’t the case.”
The conversation has raised concerns regarding China’s focus and capabilities, especially for countries like Taiwan, which are witnessing increased Chinese military buildup in the region.
DefenceGeek asked, “How much of a threat really is China? And if they can’t even mount an evacuation operation by air in the way that the US and France and so on have? Where is their focus on what really is their capability?”
While the PLA’s limitations in the Sudan crisis may not necessarily reflect their overall combat capabilities, it is essential to reassess and better understand China’s true military potential and its implications on global security.
I think the real limitation for the Chinese is the lack of military bases dotted around the globe. I would also suggest that the Chinese foriegn policy behaviour in recent years may have had an impact on their ability to arrange overflight even with friendly countries. Basically, if the PLA had to fly in international airspace from China to Sudan they would need a lot of airborne refueling…
So I think the lack of a Chinese airlift in Sudan may have as much to do with their diplomacy – or lack of it – as much as a military capability gap. I still think they would be more than able to threaten Taiwan given that there is less than 100miles between the two countries.
Cheers CR
I agree on the bases, indeed sovereign basing is possibly the greates power the UK has, for all America’s bases around the world virtually every one requires host permission which juts as with Libya in 1986 would not be forth coming in a war with China.
Obviously the narrative is the the UK is useless and America is an omnipotent uber power but imagine a world where, as would happen pre 1945, the UK switch sides.
Imagine the potency of a Chinese UK partnership with all that global basing at every choke point around the planet.
Wonder if sleepy Joe would consider a trade deal then or if he still be calling his mates in Dublin.
PLEASE NOTE IM NOT SUGGESTING WE WOULD OR SHOULD EVER DO THIS SIMPLY PLAYING A HYPOTHETICAL.
No i agree, long since said if Europe gets invaded again we should step back and say Have It, as they were so so Grateful the last time. and quite frankly fed up with old Jelly Sucker Joe.
Most people forget that the UK is still the second most potent global power…we are in really the only global power other than the US that could go half way across the globe and make a realistic threat against a regional power….I know it’s an old one but the simple reality is the reason the Falkland’s and its EEZ have not been gobbled up by the various South American regional powers is they now very well the RN and RAF and other forces that could be deployed to the falklands is not something they could come close to overcoming.
There are clearly regional powers that could concentrate more power on their own region that the UK can project globally, such as china, India etc but if the UK and china had a spat over a resource in a far away place from both nations, china would not likely come out on top as it could not sustain the same force level at distance that the UK could….( for now at least)…but that’s because China is building it’s armed forces to force the strait of Taiwan and lock out the west from the South China Sea, Bohia sea, huanghai sea and East China Sea…which they have a good chance of doing….global deployment of forces is still second fiddle for china.
Do we not think China is simply not revealing its airlift capability? They probably could have deployed military forces to Khartoum to airlift personnel and civilians out but probably chose not too. The airlift capability is a key logistical unknown at the moment that probably does keep Western and allied intelligence guessing.
The Chinese airforce ( PLAAF) does have on paper a fairly impressive order of battle in terms of airlift. Probably superior to France and the UK’s perhaps the differences are in frequency of using them at far reach and on considerable distances away from home nation base support. Training of personnel to undertake such missions and the ability of RAF/ French aircraft to perform air to air refuelling.
PLAAF airlift units- known/confirmed
50x XIan X-7 turboprops equivalent to Antonov A24- so range 1300 with max fuel- only 340miles fully loaded- load capacity 7 tons cargo/ 50 passengers- so distinctly limited and in PLAAF service not obviously equipped for air to air refuelling
35x Shaanxi y9s- equivalent to C130J aircraft- range 2200 kms with 15 ton payload and 106 paratroopers/ civilian airlift capacity- in PLAAF service not obviously equipped for air to air refuelling
50x Xian Y20- strategic airlift- probably the best airlift capacity outside of US air force- range 2400km, 66 tons capacity with airlift of up to 240 personnel. The PLAAF have a stated goal of introducing several hundred of these aircraft into service so if there are in fact “just” 50 in service I would be very surprised.
25x Xian MA60- turboprop aircraft- equivalent to light commercial standards- range 1600km, 62 passenger capacity, 7 tons total payload.
20x Ilyushin Il-76- Russian based strategic airlifter. range= 4400km with a 52 ton payload equivalent to 200+ civilian/ paratrooper carrying capacity.
When you consider this lift capacity known vs probably higher numbers then declared by PLAAF you can see that the PLAAF airlift capacity is highly capable- probably only 2nd to USAAF and superior to RAF/ France in all likelihood- any difference in actual performance is due to training and the familiarity with deployments away from home-base support and in terms of RAF/ French aircraft the key attribute seems to be the ability to undertake air to air refuelling which PLAAF aircraft seem to lack except the Xian Y20 and some of its Ilyushin IL-76s.
The numbers available in the PLAAF inventory and their combined total lift is quite impressive and definitely should be factored into any defence scenario for Taiwan. The PLAAF ability to deliver +10,000 airdropped/ air delivered troops in one large lift is impressive and if repeated via ferrying shuttle runs between a secured airfield and China would be exceptionally difficult to prevent a significant rapid military build up on Taiwan.
Could the PLAAF have supported a civilian airlift out of Khartoum- well reviewing details above most definitely. Did they choose not too because of a lack of expertise, experience at operating at long-range, lack of air to air refuelling, lack of immediate availability with no designated rapid reaction cadre? Who knows? China will keep us guessing. We think they are a paper tiger who appear capable but in operational reality would not deliver but we simply do not know.
Numbers on an ORBAT is one thing, another altogether to actually deploy it far from home in a useful capacity.
Reading the above article, I can’t help but see a failure to grasp the different mindset of other cultures. The Chinese as do Indians, Africans dance to another tune when it comes to their own citizens. For example, the Uk has pulled out more of its citizens than any other western nation and all we have seen is the media continuing to berate the Uk for not doing enough, with some (safe in their living rooms thousands of miles away) asking why hasn’t the Uk been carrying out a bespoke taxis service collecting British citizens from their front doors.
The Chinese (like others) simplified things by saying make your own way to Port Sudan . From where they have ferried people to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia (around 170 miles away) where they have flow them back to China. As of this morning they have rescued 940 Chinese citizens and 231 foreign residents of which 200 were Pakistani.
But there’s more to the story, China has been sourcing oil from Sudan for a while(5% of its oil passes through Port Sudan) , the main reason for the ethnic cleaning in Darfur was simply to clear the land for the Chinese to operate oil rigs, something they are still doing today , Darfur is currently the fiefdom of the RSF and despite the huge rise increase in attacks on civilians there I would expect Chinese citizens are safe , the vast majority of Oil in Sudan was in the South (now South Sudan) and the Chinese have a strong presence there also (as of Sept 2021 there were 130 Chinese companies operating in Sudan), So I expect a lot of people have sought safety in those 2 locations
IN contrast to the British media here is how the chinese state media is reporting on the evacuation of its citizens from Sudan
Kudos for starting your piece with those two sentences. 👍🙂
Miss a chance to demonstrate to countries in Africa than China can get their just as most of those countries are about to default on Chinese debt.
I really can’t imagine that hiding air lift capability makes any sense.
More likely a problem of logistics operating isn’t he other side of Himalayas, lack of capacity and lack of want to look after their expats.
All those numbers and you double-guessing yourself … 🙄
Let me give you one sentence:
The Chicoms have zero war fighting experience since the Korean war, the bits and bobs that came after count for nothing.
Not that it makes much difference but you are missing China’s incursion into Vietnam in 1979,that didn’t end too well.
Not second guessing myself just presenting the known facts and a counter argument to why China via PLAAF hasn’t responded. That’s all.
What real airlift capability?
It doesn’t have a modern MILSPEC medium or heavy lifter.
The Y-20 is plagued with issues and while it looks a bit like a C-17 it isn’t at that sort of level at all.
BTW most of the Y-20 is an Antonov – Ukranian design. So they won’t be getting a lot of support now.
I’d heard rumours the Y-20 programme might be in trouble. As usual with many Chinese military programmes they take a foreign design and reverse engineer it. In this case the Illyusin Y76.
If the Y-20 programme is dependent on Ukranian supplied hardware then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a massive problem for China. Especially as Ukranian aerospace industrial sites have mostly been bombed or visited by Kalibre cruise missiles.
It is more further and incremental development.
As I said on here a few times. My theory is that Putin’s invasion was more to do with restoring access to certain technologies that were in Ukraine and that Russia couldn’t access.
Prior to 2014, Ukraine were voluntarily selling military tech to Russia. Why would Putin attack to access it? Or are you talking about the 2022 invasion? If so, doesn’t it have to be seen in the context of and as continuation of 2014?
2014 cut that off
An opportunity to hold out the hand of friendship perhaps? I have say I find the strategy of leveraging Modi’s Hindu nationalist India ( which is happy persecute Kerala Christians and to buy Russian oil) as a counterpoint to China very distasteful.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/05/narendra-modi-india-religion-hindu-nationalism/630169/
The Chinese military has a base in Djibouti. It has a port facility for naval ships, and a helicopter landing strip (but I don’t think it has an airfield). I’m not sure why. It might be part of the original agreement struck with the government or a preference for a port instead of having the base further inland (with more land available for an airstrip)?
From Google Earth I measure the PLA Djibouti base airstrip at 400m long. STOL only, though it’s only 4 or 5 miles from Djibouti main airport(Where US/IT/Fr/Jap are based. They lased a USAF jet a few years ago, damaging crew eyesight. But the PRC has a lot of friends between occupied Tibet & the Sudan, so I wouldn’t rule out use of airbases & transit if requested. The Belt & Road program is all about influence & leverage.
We write off the PLA, but we did the same with the Japanese before WW2 & suffered many heavy defeats until the balance was tipped.
The CCP isn’t out for a multipolar World, like the Russians believe. They want a unipolar world, to knock the US off top spot and for the CCP to replace them and dominate the world. We would be fools to underestimate them. This isn’t the time for complacency. But I’m not sure if the Westminster bubble really gets it.
I entirely agree. can you imagine a CCP ruled world, with all the surveillance modern IT allows? The sooner we start pushing the CCP back into its box by confronting its bullying of neighbours the better for a free world.
Lot of 2nd Hand A380s parked in Storage yards, that could provide Airlift quite quickly. as most of the parts were built in China and assembled in France.
Ohhhh and France Pulled 300 nationals out of Sudan. and yet UK has pulled some 3000, admitted some will need to pay for there return flights to the UK from there little Holiday to a war zone. all them NHS doctors will be back in time to join the strike.
China unlike the UK and the USA has a large merchant navy and can and does use it to evacuate citizens, because there will be ships within a few hours steaming time from most ports. It works well. DAMHIKT.