Over 170 British Army soldiers have taken part in a major training exercise in Japan over the last two weeks.
The British Army say here that Exercise Vigilant Isles has taken place annually for the last few years, except during the Covid pandemic.
“But this year was the first time British troops have been embedded with their Japanese counterparts during the biggest ever exercise. Previously the two nations’ troops did not fully integrate with each other while training on Honshu, the largest and most populated island in Japan. Under the umbrella of 16 Air Assault Brigade ISTAR, troops from 21 Air Assault Battery, 32 Regiment Royal Artillery deployed a Puma unmanned aircraft system (UAS) while working with a 1RGR mortar platoon.
In addition, a Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC), from 7 Para Royal Horse Artillery, operated in Misawa in the far north where the soldier directed close air support from F-2 fighter jets belonging to the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF). The largest British Army unit that took part in the exercise was 1 Royal Gurkha Rifles’ (1RGR) B (Sari Bair) Company, based in Brunei, who contributed 130 troops.”
Other firsts during Exercise Vigilant Isles 23 (Ex VI23) included:
- Joint live fire training carried out by the British Army and Japanese forces.
- A British Army drone flown in Japan which directed mortar fire during live firing.
The largest British Army unit that took part in the exercise was 1 Royal Gurkha Rifles’ (1RGR) B (Sari Bair) Company, based in Brunei, who contributed 130 troops.
“This partnership began in October 2018 when the Honourable Artillery Company (HAC) trained with the JGSDF on the slopes of Mount Fuji for the first Vigilant Isles exercise.
At that time, apart from the US, no foreign troops had ever conducted military exercises on Japanese soil. The increasing importance of Japan to the UK as a partner in the Indo-Pacific, and the signing of the Hiroshima Accord in May 2023, has seen the exercise grow in scope and ambition.
The British Army is a global force. One that is persistently engaged around the world, training and operating with its partners. And training to be more lethal, agile, digitised and expeditionary. The Indo-Pacific is critical to the UK’s economy, security and global ambition to support open societies. The UK is therefore deepening engagement in the region in support of shared prosperity and regional stability. Japan is one of the UK’s closest strategic partners and, by taking part in Ex VI23, the British Army has shown its commitment to enhancing this partnership.”
Before others on the site discount the value of this exercise, wish to state that a detailed account has undoubtedly been noted and logged both in Beijing and Pyongyang. Similar in geopolitical intent to the relatively recent participation of RM in SK exercise. Always pleased when the level of paranoia in the chief muppets of totalitarian regimes can be increased. 😁
Well said. This kind of exchange needs to be encouraged in the region. Perhaps next year we can start doing the very same thing with Taiwan and rebuild SEATO. But this time with some regionally deployed nuclear teeth!
Interesting listening to Yuki Tatsumi at CSIS the other day assessing just how intent Japan & South Korea are in striving to consign traditional antagonism in the light of growing Chinese / North Korean belligerence.
Indeed ensuring the greatest possible deterrent to prevent a catastrophic war in the pacific is vitally important for the whole world..most people don’t seem to consider the profound level of contagion that would come from a china, Taiwan or china Japan conflict….it would immediately suck in the U.S. ( infact it’s likely china would simply kick off with a massive attack on all US military assets in the pacific theatre as a way to gain advantage using strategic surprise as they have been practicing with mock ups of the key US navel bases)..the conflict would then slip into the two superpowers slogging it out until strategic exhaustion…and if anyone thinks that will not involve the whole planet and a very long time they are being very hopeful.
The only way we can prevent a catastrophic war is by making sure china does not think it can win…and than means using all the elements of deterrence..showing will, showing capability and making sure the enemy can see that capability….because the very moment china thinks it can win a war of strategic exhaustion with the U.S and allies it will kick it off…it knows it cannot win a swift military war, but China is not aiming for that …it thinks at present it’s economy and population would out last the US and once it’s convinced it can outlast the US and allies will to fight it will probably attack Taiwan….via massive strikes against Japan and the pacific forces.
One other thing people don’t realise is that china has burnt literally hundreds of billions on hardening its economy and population to a long drawn out war…that is not including its military spend…its been shaping its economy to ensure maximum internal supply lines to industrial capacity as well as focusing on hardening internal markets ( a china first policy) the estimates are that this hardening has reduced china’s growth by around 2-4% a year..for around the last 10 years….consider that it’s knowingly damaged its economy by arouns 2-4% growth per year…just to harden it against a conflict with the west…it’s scary , that is convincing china is getting ready for war even if your not convinced by the massive re-armament process, or the fact that every year China practices it’s entire process of wartime mobilisation or even the fact it’s government has actually openly said that if it cannot re integrate tiawan using political means that it will use force, or it’s build mock ups of the US, Japanese and tawainese key Military infrastructure and then practices knocking out out…I don’t know what will
The danger you outline so frentically is real, and I believe the best counter is supporting Ukraine. If the US, the UK, France and Germany put aside Ukrainian budget lines for the next five years, with assurances that funding will continue beyond that should the war not be over, not only will it give Putin pause for thought, even Xi will get that the West isn’t going to get exhausted by time.
Current global instability has been caused by the perception of the West as weak and indecisive. The first step to calming it all down is to demonstrate the opposite. Not as a mad one-off reaction, but as a business as usual ramp up that we can sustain indefinitely.
That is an interesting way to justify the financing of a former privileged founding communist state, Ukraine. It’s logically sound too. Hmmm, food for thought Jonathan and Jon, thanks.
The western powers must also collectively defend against our home grown domestic threats. Whilst juggling all the other issues mentioned above. Not an easy task given the transient nature of western politicians and their changing fashionable directions. Potentially after every election cycle.
The CCP learned a lesson from the USSR. That sowing seeds of marxism in higher education, trade unionism and the civil service. Pays huge dividends decades later. They are also in the process of exploiting as many of democracies inherent weaknesses as possible, while exploring strategies to weaken our strengths and use them against us. It’s straight out of Sun Zu. Or should I say Jiang Zemin.
I once had the pleasure of attending a closed summer series of lectures on geopolitics. Subject : How the leadership of the communist world viewed the West and their plans to spread marxism. It was the mid 90’s, the USSR had just imploded and talking about such things was popular. To make a long story short. I recall one of the lectures because of it’s title and Peoples Republic of China subject matter. “Chinks in the Armour.” It was a less politically correct time, mid 1990’s and the lecturer was of Hong Kong origin. It was a tense time for the Hong Kong people.
The lecture correctly predicted the rise of the CCP to super power status (not hard) quickly surpassing the defunct USSR. The then General Secretary of the Central Committee was Jiang Zemin. He also help top portfolios in the military and interestingly the electronics industry. Zemin is very likely the author of the current strategy being advanced by Xi Jinping. He wrote the Three Represents. Rather important ideas that were written into the CCP manifesto. (for want of a better term) Taking 19th and 20th century Marxist theory into the 21st century. But with a very Sino tilt.
The entire transcript may have been published and I’m going to do my best to find it for both of you. It will blow your minds! The CCP have been playing the long game while we in the west are destroying ourselves from within.
It is certainly prudent to conduct as much research re capabilities and intent of potential opponents as feasible. Believe UKR conflict has adequately demonstrated that UK/US tactical ISR capabilities are top tier, not nearly as convinced re analytical capabilities dealing w/ strategic geopolitical matters. 🤔
Agree that Mad Vlad and the Orcs should be sent packing from UKR, but less certain that the ChiComs are not executing an at least quasi-Independent strategy. 🤔
Yes totally agreed but we don’t do we? We scurry around trying to please every little faction that decides to raise its voice whilst handing out huge chunks of cash to ensure that our ever ballooning population continues to live in the manner to which it has become accustomed. We could be so much stronger than this in every way if only we could somehow come to our senses.
Very interesting (and alarming) information presented re hardening of ChiCom economy; please provide link(s), if available. Previous articles appeared to indicate that the democracies have been somewhat successful in curbing ChiCom access in select high tech areas. Lo, mayhaps not.🤔☹️
Personal belief is that the collective democracies will enter a period of maximum vulnerability during the period from 2025-2040. By 2040 the US will have significantly updated it’s strategic triad, the UK will have deployed the Dreadnought class, increased its nuclear warhead inventory, and possibly increased defence expenditures to 2.5+%, and hopefully, the French will have produced meaningful upgrades to their systems. On the conventional side of the equation, AUKUS Pillar 1 should begin to bear fruit, and the Japanese will have at least doubled current defense expenditures. The real problem is finessing the interim period w/out resort to cataclysmic conflict. Xi has ordered that the state be ready for war by 2027. Even the most generous estimates of rearmament rates of the democracies, will not, I fear, intimidate the ChiComs into peaceful coexistence, presuming they are serious in their intent to dominate the entire SCS. Of course, Mad Vlad (probably) and the Orcs will also be available to generate additional instability, in addition to the Iranians and North Koreans.
On the political front, it currently appears that the US Executive branch will be led by an octogenarian from 2024-2028, regardless of which party wins, and there will probably be a narrowly divided Congressional branch, which has significant difficulty enacting any meaningful legislation during the period. Sincerely hope that political prospects are brighter in the other democracies during this period, history may hang in the balance. Oh yes, also hope there are no ‘black swan’ economic crises during this period, as well. 🤔🤞🤞
Having stated all the above, still hope we will ‘muddle through.’ 😊
…which will have… apology, future tense required. 🙄
Future tension is assured.
Hi former, the best analysis I have read on this is
”The next major war: can the US and its Allies win against china” from Ross Babbage” it’s 40 dollars but a profoundly interesting read for anyone interests in geopolitics and geostrategy in the US china conflict.
His premise is as follows:
1) the west has not taken seriously how totemic Taiwan is to china. The fact it’s been the foundation stone of Chinese nationalism for 20 years means the entire nation expects the government to reunite Taiwan with mainland china….and they as a population are prepared and ready to go to war to achieve it ( it’s like the Falklands to us in the UK…but with an added 20 years of authoritarian mind control telling us it’s a national catastrophe if we lost it or the same with the US southern states suddenly leaving….the chinas government must bring Taiwan into the fold or it will probably end up bring down the government at some point and causing a crisis of national identity.
2) china knows very well that US and western military power is greater than chinas….and it will loss a lot of battles and campaigns. But china remembers something the west keeps on forgetting…and yet keeps showing over and over…in the end it’s not military power that wins major war, it’s industrial capacity, political will and a populations willingness to bleed and suffer…this is important..not just the armed forces willingness to bleed but a nations and the civilians and populace that make it up..we see this over and over…WW2 France had the military power…but no willingness to bleed…then germany had the military power but came up against a nation with the same will to bleed and it was forced into a long war it lost. The U.S. in Nam..a minnow nation willing to bleed more that the US, the Taliban in Afghanistan, Ukraine vs Russia…china is pretty sure that it’s population is far more willing to suffer and bleed that the Wests…infact it has seen this…the west has even started to bleat and whiny over supporting Ukraine…china knows it’s population would suffer profound hardship and death…it thinks the wests population and politicians cannot even accept a small economic hit….
3) industrial capacity…china has made a lot of its industrial infrastructure self reliant or not reliant on the west..while actively making the west reliant on china…its restructures its debt and economics to not be dependent on western systems..while using debt to bind nations with things it needs. In key industries needed for a long war china is well ahead..munitions manufacturing and for a war which will focus on strategic exhaustion and the cutting of trade..china has 20 times the ship building capacity of the U.S….infact china has a few ship builders that on their own are greater than the U.S. capacities…china is able to put large multiples of complex large surface combatants in the water each year….vital in a the long war. Most of the papers connect this economic/industrial hardening to china preparing for an economic war with the west ( CSIS paper “economics indicators of Chinese military action against tiawan” summaries the long term changes in chinas economy to harden it…but like many it feels it’s no indication of war..Babbage is clear that you have to link this long term economic activity to the military build up and what china says it’s going to do…which all indicate war in the near future)
4) china is now openly telling its population to prepare for war and that it will be going to war..the west sees this as putting pressure on the West and Taiwan..Babbage says this is misunderstanding how the communist system in china communicates internally….and it’s not brinksmanship with the west but the CCP actually preparing and communicating its needs to its population.
5) as noted earlier china does not believe the wests political systems or population have the will to fight a world war..we are used to sending our troops out to fight, accepting a few body bags and moving on..but the pain of a world war is not something our political system or population could handle…western civilian deaths..hundreds of thousands of military deaths and the utter destruction of our economies…rationing of goods and resources..china thinks the west would capitulate and seek terms ( and I’m not sure he’s wrong)…where as china believes it’s command and control economy and controlled population could take all that..
6) china will be at the hight of its military and economic power in 2027, that’s when most of the navel and airforce building programmes will have produced a navy and airforce that can out attrition the USN if not out fight it in specific battles or campaigns ( it’s hight of power will be around 2027)
7) nuclear deterrence…one of Chinas problems was not having an adequate nuclear arsenal to match the U.S. in a MAD type stand off…in the end china could face the US using nuclear blackmail to end a world war in its favour)..in the years 2020 to 2022 china increased its ICBM fields by 350%..from 100 to 450 launchers…that is and immense increase…in 2020 china up armed its 6 ballistic missile submarines with sub launched missiles with a range of 10,000km. China likely now has around 500 operational warheads…basically enough to negate the U.S. nuclear arsenal if it tried to end a war with nuclear blackmail or threat ( the US would not survive as a functional nation in case of a nuclear exchange with china )
8) finally China has already started the “sub kinetic” war…information, affecting the will of populations to fight ( psychological warfare on populations etc), manipulation of geopolitical and geostrategic positions across the world ( resource access and allies) .
basically Babage says china is not going to fight the war the west expects…and china is probably going to aim for a world war because it could not win the short focused campaign…it knows the US is the master of the short focused war and has the exquisite military power to always win that type of war..that’s how the U.S. would want to fight so why should china fight a war in the way the west would want, knowing it would loss..so according to Babbage if it decided to fight you will likely see the following.
1) strategic surprise, china now every year runs exercises to such a large level that they are almost indistinguishable from a mobilisation….( infact it does mobilise whole provinces the size of large countries) and they can flick from exercising mobilisation to a major assault with almost no warning.china has been training the west to accept this every year….Tiawan keeps telling the west china will use its military exercises to attack for strategic surprise.
2) china has one of the largest arsenal of conventional theatre level balistic missiles in the world…1350 or so…it’s actually got mock ups of US military bases it practices attacking..it’s very likely as part of its strategic supprise it will unleash that on the wests pacific military infrastructure.
3) Taiwan’s military is a bit of a joke…china has plans in place to subjugate the island in around 7-14 days. But if not that’s fine
4) it knows the first coupe of months will be a blood bath as the USN and allies attempt to break the encircling Plan, again it may loss this campaign and the USN break through…but what it knows is for both sides it will be a navel blood bath not seen in 80 years…many hundreds of thousand dead on both sides..the USN pretty much shattered ( most or all of the available carriers destroyed, most of the SSN fleet loss) and the PLAN shattered to the same or even greater extent…but the China simply does not plan to end it there..whatever the outcome china and the US will lick their wounds, bring in their allies across the world and start a global conflict ( well even if the U.S. does not china will force it )
5) china thinks it can win the world war,because it has great industrial output in regards to the attritional type weapons needed in a long term war as well as a population that can take the pain and an economy hardened to take the pain..basically china is coming to the conclusion that in all out war world where the planet’s economy crashes and we have conflict across the globe with casualties in the 100,000s to millions china would out attrition the west and be more resistant to strategic exhaustion ( politically, population will, economically, attrition). Basically china thinks that although in theory the west would beat china in a short war we will not out suffer china in a long war and so capitulate. Babbages view is that unless we show china that is not the case and we are really to win the long bloody world war ( as apposed to a short sharp conflict) china will likely attack, if it does not see a route to getting Taiwan.
Thanks very much for the extensive exposition of Babage’s arguments! 😊 Actually privately concur w/ a majority of them. Considerably less certain when it comes to point 7.) possible nuclear exchanges. Not certain how the particular scenario would develop, but believe that an all out conventional Sino-US conflict would eventually result in a transition above the nuclear threshold. The MAD Doctrine will apply equally to PRC as it did to the former Soviet Union,. The US will cease to exist, but similarly, the same fate will befall the PRC, Russia, DPRK and probably Iran. Stress that this is a private assessment and not necessarily indicative of official US policy. 🤔
Hi, yes essentially the issue is china can now negate the US nuclear arsenal with MAD. Where as before it was always open to nuclear blackmail of the US was willing to go that way (and with a bloodbath world war, I’m pretty sure the U.S. may have considered nuclear blackmail..who would not)… I therefore don’t believe China or the U.S. would go nuclear…MAD prevents it…and neither side would be facing annihilation from invasion..so why go nuclear…it’s the one thing about that potential war..the enemies would be separated and essentially losing would be catastrophic but not involve annihilation…so I don’t think anyone would press the nuclear button….
What makes you think the PL A will fight with the same fanaticism as say the Taliban and other religous forces?.Just because there is a lot of pro PLA information about doesnt mean that they are willing to fight for the force most of them have feared all their lives. This is a case of ‘what goes aro7nd comes around’
What most people don’t get about china is that it a profoundly close to what nazi germany was. The nation has been sculpted by its leaders to create a cult of Han exceptionalism. The culture is created through the education and media. It’s a nation of believers in the greatness of China.
But we are not talking about fanatical fighters here we at talking about a nation’s willingness to suffer.
China has very much prepared its population to suffer, suffer loss of income, reduction in food availability. Consider how the population of the UK has to suffer during WW2…the Chinese’s communist party have prepared their population to suffer that…more importantly they have been telling their population it’s necessary.
There is no real opposition party in China or alternative message and it has the apparatus to remove any alternative message before it’s able to propagate.
Now you take the population of the US and European…will:
1) the population of Europe and the UK be willing to see their living standards and wealth crumble in the face of a years long world war..will they being willing to see the stock markets fall..loss access to all the cheap goods they had before…not have what they had before..see their lives changed completely possibly for a decade or more…even face nuclear extermination….will the populations of London and Newyork really put up with that for a world war that is essentially as they would see it over an island that even the islands population says is part of china ?
Then we have the political will, will the politicians of the west actually support a world war with all its risks the loss of almost everything their populations have come to expect..or will the west’s political classed end up fighting over the right course ?
I would suggest that the Chinese are correct, the public and political will would not be there for a world war, costing millions of lives and destroying everyone’s livelihoods and lifestyles…America would step in there would be a bloodbath china would follow up with a world war and the west at some point would blink..
You have to remember to the Chinese people Taiwan is china it’s totemic they are not going to give up ever unless their nation is utterly and completely destroyed and it would take years on years to reduce china even if the west could win.
we would be fighting a world war, with all its catastrophic harm to our lives and future…for a tiny island enclave across the world…that was formed from a civil war that never ended..china would be fighting for what it’s whole population sees as its own soil…who do you think will blink.
Exactly. This is time and money well spent. More please!
Well said, NATO+ is the strongest military force on the planet and we should encourage more members to train together in a wider context than just leaving it all to the USA.