Argentina has spent two years rebuilding an air force it let wither for a decade, and every new arrival brings back the question of what it means for the Falklands.
Argentina agreed in 2024 to buy 24 second-hand F-16AM/BMs from Denmark for around $300 million, a deal the Milei goverment called the most important military acquisition in fifty years. The first six arrived at Río Cuarto in Córdoba on 5 December 2025. Six more follow each December to 2028, and the fleet is working up with VI Air Brigade at Tandil.
Argentina retired it’s last supersonic fighters in 2015 and had no interceptor capability at all for nearly a decade after that. The F-16 closes the gap and brings Argentine aircrew onto Western avionics, weapons and logistics standards for the first time in a generation.
The first of a batch of American M1126 Strykers has also arrived, for an army still running TAM medium tanks and M113s, and there’s also a contract with Terma of Denmark for F-16 electronic warfare work covering software, mission planning and ground support. The 2026 budget carries a number of capital lines for hangars, ground support equipment and base protection at Tandil and Río Cuarto out to 2028.
The navy has had very little of this, as readers will know. The surface fleet is MEKO 360 destroyers and MEKO 140 corvettes, most of them needing maintenance or mid-life work that hasn’t been funded, the last S-2T Turbo Trackers are under evaluation for retirement, and there has been no submarine force since the ARA San Juan was lost in 2017.
Range, fuel, tankers
The nearest Argentine airfields are around 300 nautical miles from the islands. An F-16 flying that out, holding for any useful time and returning has very little margin left, and the tanker fleet that could support it is a small number of ageing KC-130Hs. That same geography shaped 1982, when Skyhawks and Daggers reached San Carlos with minutes of fuel and attacked at low level because they had no other option.
Defence spending is around 0.7 to 0.8 per cent of GDP. The 2026 budget aims to push defence and internal security together towards 2 per cent, though economic volatility has broken Argentine procurement timelines before and will probably do it again. There are about 72,000 active personnel and wages take the largest share of the budget, as they often do.
What’s on the islands
British Forces South Atlantic Islands is a permanent joint command, set up so that 1982, when the islands were held by a Royal Marines detachment and had to be retaken by a task force sailing 8,000 miles, cannot happen again.
Four Typhoon FGR4s of 1435 Flight hold QRA round the clock over the Falklands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, with A400M and Voyager providing transport and tanking. British fighters in the area have the refuelling Argentine ones lack.
Ground defence is a roulement infantry company, currently form 5th Battalion The Rifles, working with the locally recruited Falkland Islands Defence Force. Sky Sabre provides ground-based air defence, with radar coverage from Mount Byron among other sites. HMS Medway holds the South Atlantic Patrol Task and Mount Pleasant is hardened, able to take reinforcement direct from the UK. Cape Upholder in early July ran mortars, snipers and machine guns on the range with a section attack supported by simulated CAS from the Typhoons.
Taking an airfield defended by fast jets, modern GBAD and infantry, across 300 nautical miles, without air superiority, without tanking and without any way of supplying a lodgement, from a country that has fought for the islands once and now garrisons them permanently, is not a plan anybody in Buenos Aires is seriously working on. Not outside of the internet forums, anyway
Could you please copy and paste to Sky,BBC,ITN,GB news and talk tv just to mention a few please?
No point. Those outlets aren’t interested in facts, their fortunes are dependent on getting people’s attention in a crowded media landscape. Making up nonsense is the easiest way to achieve that. Milei is making a lot of noise because his fiscal reforms aren’t doing what he’d hoped, which certainly doesn’t indicate any material change to the actual threat to the islands. But one can’t whip up media hysteria with such dry observations.
As we speak, Argentina is in a poor financial position, but it has changed the law to allow the mining of gold, silver, copper & lithium. If this holds & Argentina has a poor record on that, Argentina may end up with large revenues on that mining.
The expected replacement of Lithium in batteries with cheaper alternatives like sodium may well limit their potential income from that. However gold, silver & copper seem likely to bring in a decent amount of money. I thought I had read somewhere they still had oil reserves although I’m getting the impression that demand for oil might well diminish quite quickly due to issues in the middle east.
These new safer solid state batteries use a lot of silver.
I am getting the impression that cost is likely to be a major factor. Sodium which is plentiful should be really cheap and easily extracted without need of expensive items. Initial results appear encouraging and are at the very least matching Lithium. The are so many research projects going on using so many materials it is fascinating. We will see. Solid state is also interesting and Toyota seem to have made a serious breakthrough there.
I agree with your comments about Argentina’s financial position but there are other considerations. despite the bluster Argentina has no military tradition which as ex military myself I understand how important it is. Apart from a few local wars in the 19th Century the biggest campaigns the military have waged have been the slaughter of the indigenous Mapuche people and the dirty war against its own civilians in the 1970s. It’s not a matter of kit but of the quality of the people being recruited to the military and the better more qualified persons find careers elsewhere.
Or maybe to somewhere that gets Trump attention.
1.7 billion barrels of light crude already has his attention….
Argentina will not mount a full scale invasion, but some sort of propaganda stunt is quite likely, so Britain should not be complacent. Ideally, UK forces there need an extra Typhoon, some light armoured vehicle & an anti ship missile.
If Argentina had one ounce of sense they would stop the stunts and push good relations with the islands. I doubt the islanders will at any point accept Argentina having any form of sovereignty they might well move for some form of mutually beneficial trading relationship.
Agree. A couple more typhoon.
NSM or air launched for typhoon.
An additional few platoon of troops and 2-3 chinnoks with a battery of 105mm light guns would be a useful reminder to Argentina we can reinforce at will. Quicker than they can ship a military force too the islands.
If it came to it I guess an SSN might be found from the tied up Astute boats, additional Typhoon made available and more Infantry flown in, do not call it Training however. No monies for that! If the Falklands were ‘lost’ as in 1982, we would never be able to regain them militarily.
The above are all pretty obvious statements.
All you would need to stop a sea borne force is some land NSM which are the same missile in the same box launcher controlled slightly differently.
Some though does need to be given to a joint stockpile of those for RN and Army – that stops that aspect before it starts.
4 Typhoon is thin. So it is either more Typhoon or a bootstrapped Land/Sea Ceptor setup that has a wider coverable bubble with remote launcher sites. To prevent and kind of ‘get-near’.
Deterrence is the strongest investment. If it can be made clear that the 1st hour losses are going to be enormous and take out all momentum as well as spear tip then nobody would go near it.
The problem last time was that the reverse happened.
IRL our AAW with T45 and carrier with F35B and Merlin is so far in advance of ’82 or what Argentina could dream of operating that it bears zero comparison. We do also have P8 and RIVET that can fly long range and provide overwatch. The AAR weaknesses has been identified and is being addressed.
So long as the Argentines are not permitted standoff weapons then the existing Land Ceptor fire group is sufficient. If they cannot incapacitate Mount Pleasant by air, any other invasion would end in disaster.
They cannot be refuelled.
They can be refuelled with a boom.
It was announced this week that RAF would get boom refuelling. Which is no surprise with F35A.
To shut up Trump and Milia we should send down a couple of Astutes and a Squadron of Typhoons as an exercise
And just how is the UK going to pay for that? If you think a third-rate power UK heading into bankruptcy and controlled by Islamists and delusional far lefties straight out of the 1970s is going to frighten Trump, then I suggest medication.
Medication is needed, just not sure you picked the right person to recommend it to.
You are quite accurate in your current assessment of the UK, but that does not detract from the fact you continue to be a bell-end.
It’s not really true.. it would be possible to send a SSN down or some more typhoons on an exercise.. but resources are so limited its not a priority.. because there is no threat and Russia is.. your right about the cockwomble..
I believe it is true, as we can all agree that the military is an absolute shadow of itself, modern capabilities withstanding, and wafer thin in all areas. We have an economy, delivered by a Government which believes you can tax your way to growth (which you cannot, Laffer curve) and a Government who is showing they are absolutely disinterested regarding defence and project a typical socialist ideology in all areas. Yes we may drag out an SSN and a few more Typhoons, but we have no depth, as you say its not a priority and due to the above, we cannot cover more than one small scale escalation or operation.
Yep I think in the end it’s depth that is the problem.. if I was that Argentinian rabble rouser I would build my capability and wait.. because if Russia really kicks off and NATO politically folds like a pack of cards due to US led rot, that would be when I would go for it.. wait until the UK is totally engaged with and focused on Russia, because there would truly be sod all we could do then. I think counter intuitively the more likely Russia is to make a move the more there is a need to strengthen the airbridge defences with extra troops, because the more likely it is Argentina would take a chance.
We had a government that didn’t believe in taxing to growth as you put it and the country was a mess, they were in power for over 10years and had plenty of seats in that time
Given that as a matter of record – how do you square that against what you’re driving at?
More and more white British working people are indeed in work but still meet benefits requirements — that’s what we’re working with after your exalted preferred group
It’s best not to treat this stuff like it’s a football match
What are you on about? You will see my previous posts on the basket case Tories, but the fact of the matter is this rabble think taxing people to poverty is the way! It’s a socialist thing by the way, as long as the rich get a little less rich they don’t mind the poor staying poor! Not sure where you linked your final 2 paragraphs too, that has feck all to do with taxation and my post.
Pkcasimir, Putin’s favourite Troll 😂
A lot easier than the US, a near bankrupt state run by religious extremists and kleptocrats are going to find replacing their munitions wasted in the 47th victory over Iran.
A third rate power cannot turn cities into radioactive glass!
We don’t have any operational Astutes to send…
Don’t forget the Argentine Airforce has ordered 2 x KC135 tankers as well.
Wow, 2 1960’s tankers and 14 1970’s vintage jets.
The RAF should be sh**ting sits pants with its 14 tankers and 180 4.5 and 5th Gen jets then 😀
Nice to see a publication publishing the actual facts on the Falkland Islands instead of the nonsense espoused by ex Generals and the Talking heads in the click bate media.
That being said given the current rhetoric from Buenos Aries it makes sense to reinforce the Falklands. A small squadron of wild cat helicopters armed with sea venom would give a very potent anti ship capability in the region that would up gun the capability of HMS Medway and offer a limited ability move soldiers around with Javelin to rapidly defend any landing zones.
It’s likely the Argentine economy will soon collapse and mini Trump will be gone soon and the risk will pass.
Good idea unless the UK does away with the Wildcat as planned for 2027? Any chance of an extension of service after the deployment to Cyprus and the threats from Argentina?
Containerised NSM would be a statement of intent you might hope.
Upgrade the Medway patrol with a T31 replacement once we have enough?
There is no plan to retire the naval wildcat and we have 28 active. Given the small number of frigates we currently have the fleet is underused and trains regularly in anti ship operations against landing forces in Fijords which is exactly what you would need in the Falklands.
My mistake on the Wildcats. Excellent news. Agree that a small number (4?) forward deployed on the Falklands makes good sense for the reasons you suggested.
I was thinking four as well.
Unfortunately Jim, they have announced Wildcat will be scrapped as a radical fleet cut across the Army and Navy.
Don’t worry, drones, AI and suchlike will see us through!
The Army Wildcats are being scrapped, not the Navy ones.
Hi David, interesting, I could sware I read one of the post defence review articles on here appeared to confirm the RN Wildcats were being withdrawn too??
Got no issues with the Argie lads, just as ever its the stupid politicians who gob off and use any and all issues to suit themselves or there own ideological agendas. In fact of all the Argies in 82, the Air Force was most impressive, showing some serious courage and skill despite having capability gaps. An Argie fast jet pilot, in a decent jet in a close up game would give others a hard fight. But its the getting close that would be the issue.
You obviously didn’t watch the World Cup, especially the Final. I think most people despise them now.
They really did show how bad professional football can be and how weak and woke/corrupt the head sheds of the FIFA etc are.
It’s not just football; it’s rugby as well.
Diving, cheating, spitting, biting, kicking players when their backs are turned. Their sports teams are indicative of the national character. Their fans were the only one’s to riot during WC. Fighting, not the English or Scots, but amongst themselves.
No wonder they are loathed and detested by most other South Americans.
They are arrogant scum in all arenas. Simple.
Mate, argentinians speak about falklands all the Time. It’s not just the politicians.
Many do, as its in their genes but most are more concerned about their tanking economy, and the FI are the usual political spin to detract their observations and concerns.
That is an interesting point, though: to what extent can this kind of distraction eventually become irresistible? When you whip a population up into a frenzy, it seems hard to turn back. After all, South America is the only continent to have seen a war sparked by a soccer match.😬
Argentina is not a credible power able to threaten the Falklands… Government ministers and their staff said than in 1982! Things are only going to heat up in that neck of the woods, given that the ‘Sea Lion Field’ is estimated to contain up to 60billion barrels of oil, which could potentially provide £4billion in revenue, over 35 years.
Add to that whatever mineral wealth there is, which has not been fully evaluated yet. An independent report on the ‘North Falklands Basin’, has suggested that further investigations relating to recoverable oil resources, indicate between 790 to 900 million barrels, which is twice the output of all North Sea fields.
With Argentina’s hairy misfit PM best mates with the orange one in the US, and his vision for a pan-american partnership, are we really sure the Falklands are safe??
He does look like a 70s porn star!
Haha I thought that too but was too timid to say as much!
This is not really about now, as there is no way Argentina can fight a successful war with the UK. No matter how weakened the UK could field a carrier battle group and Argentine has no response to that and it could do as it willed.
The problem is the wider geopolitical context.. that’s Russia pushing hard at the UK and Europe and the US doing its best to stitch Europe as a cohesive defensive alliance. In two years maybe Russia pushes the Uk kinetically, a moribund NATO collapses and the US walks away from Europe ( with a secret job done smile).. the UK has to use every resource to fight Russia.. bang Argentina takes its opportunity with its 24 f16s.. and no re enforcements from the Uk.
I would like to see extra Typhoons down south and some drone defence… perhaps Rapid Sentry….
This is ok but rests on the assumption that Argentina would be operating alone against the UK which in the era we now live in, and with global adversaries looking for any opportunity to spread our resources thinly is not entirely safe. Ironically Trump may have done the UK a small favour by removing Maduro in Venezuala who was the most vocal supporter of Argentina’s ‘claims’. Argentina is quite resource rich and it’s hardly out of the question that countries like China or Russian might start investing. For the moment Argentina is probably on it’s own but we should not assume that will always be the case.
Javier Milei is not as stupid as he looks and a more comprehensive opponent than the 1980’s Junta.
He is focussed on Argentina gaining the Falklands. Step by step.
His position has some sympathy in Latin America, which he will aim to increase.
What worries me is more the UK HMG and Foreign Office likely responses to events. Hesitation. No imagination.
People say that the Falklands garrison is strong etc, and list reasons why it could defeat any Argentinian aggression.
Say the Argies land on one of the unoccupied islands. They set up camp.
They don’t shoot anyone. Maybe a sheep or two.
Will we engage the enemy and kill them? Or, ask them to leave politely.
There are so many possibilities for low level hokey pokey…all designed to feed international opinion.
Would be a massive gamble if they put a move on the Falklands, but what about their other claims of South Georgia or South Sandwich Islands, maybe even British Antartic Territory? Not sure if they have that cold weather capability, but could see them pulling some sort of stunt to big up nationalistic support.
Another reason for the UK to develop an Ice Breaker fleet like the proposed Seaspan Canadian Coast Guard vessels.
There are two, possibly three things that have made Argentina bang the proverbial drum again. The first is that Milei’s popularity as President is waning. By raising the ownership of the Falkand’s raises public interest and his ratings. The second which is tied to the third is the Sea Lion oil project. Where drilling is expected to start in Jan 2027. The current estimate is that there is over 1.2 billion barrels worth of oil in that one field alone. Which means the Falkland’s will be having a bit of a gold rush. Argentina has incredibly high debt and inflation, where most of the GDP is used to pay off loans, which they regularly renege on. Seeing that the Falklands is going to have a bit of a windfall obviously has not escaped their notice. So envious eyes are watching what is happening and possibly licking their lips at a possible opportunity!
The F16 deal was delivered by the US. It was used as a means to make sure Argentina did not fall into the pocket of China. The UK was “told” not to get in the way. China had been cosying up to Argentina offering trade deals on fishing in exchange for currency. There was talk that China was offering assistance in rebuilding their military, which would have included materiel for all three arms, along with the “training advisors” to support the restructuring. The US believed that there was a danger, that China could embed itself in the strategically important country. As its the main route the USN carriers use to get from the Atlantic to the Pacific and vice versa. The US had to do something to stop this from happening, which led to the F16 deal.
I personally think this option is still on the table. If Argentina is looking at the future prosperity of the Falkland’s and believe it should be theirs. There is a definitive risk that they could go to China asking for military support in exchange for trade rights. It’s something the UK should be cautious about!
There is another thing that needs to be considered.. the Falklands are doing very well indeed and with the oil revenues will be profoundly rich.
It may be time to have an honest conversation with the Falklands about how much the UK sinks into defending them..
The Falklands have no national debt and a 400million sovereign wealth fund just sitting there, that’s going to exponentially increase with the oil.. the UK has spent in the region of 5 billion pounds defending the islands. Really we cannot keep spending close to 100million a year of UK taxpayers money and see the Falklands just build a multi billion pound sovereign wealth fund for 2500 residents..
It’s the Falklands islanders choice and we should support that but as the islanders get richer and richer ( per capita gdp is double the UKs before the oil) the UK needs a good deal for its tax payers.
Interestingly back in 82′ Norman Lamont pushed to get 100% of the potential oil revenues for the UK. I’m pretty sure as our assets seem to continuously stretched the islanders won’t mind contributing to their own safety and way of life. It’s just like getting an insurance policy.
They could do a lot to help support their own defence. There’s already a project for a dual use floating dock, but perhaps they also have the land for a second tarmac runway as their own airport?
I don’t know what the FI Gov’s policy is but making the place more habitable and attractive to British emigration as it becomes richer seems like a good idea and would increase the number of angry Britons that could be pointed to to discourage the Argentines from taking posession.
To be honest you could probably move the population up significantly if the oil reserves provide a lot of income..
The issue is food production as the Falklands have particularly awful soil for agriculture, you stick to many people on the islands and they become at risk of food blockade…
Then the Falklands can lead the way on indoor farming, that’s a useful area for sovereign wealth fund investment right there.
With the age of drones which are now in range from Argentine Mainland and the reverse is true , does Argentina really need a new Navy and Airforce to neutralise Falklands . The big problem i see is the USA and Israel are now drilling for oil in Falklands Waters . The dynamics has changed , now USA and Israel get a say in the Falklands as they now have direct interest and strategic interest in the place . Personally i think this can be a huge error on uk behalf allowing foreign nations drilling for oil in Falkland Waters . We have suddenly seen the possible start of this in play now , being bullied blackmailed by these nations particular when the UK no longer has a functioning Royal Navy which again is a huge weakness for an island nation . The uk is still rapidly declining its navy . And our South Atlanticic islands are of strategic importance ever more so into the future with an eye on the Antarctic for friend and foe alike . For UK to give any island away in South Atlantic would be a strategic and economic disaster
The first post to mention Isreal. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Milei is Bibi’s cousin, Isreal have a big interest in land acquisition in Argentina and clearly also have an even bigger influence in American politics, especially with the current administration.
Yes , and lets not forget the lobbying done by USA and Israel in the UK parliament. It is perfectly possible in the near distant future that the lobbying will assist in handing the Falklands over without a shot being fired. If one goes on google and checks out the Israeli company involved in Falklands oil extraction , from memory it has a headquarters in USA and most of the members of the company board had jobs in highest echlons of Israeli govt . Information freely available.
Didnt know they were cousins . Wonder who agreed to this company being allowed to obtain oil rights in the area
Isreal has an enormous influence in US politics, (and British to be fair, in all of the parties) especially at the moment. Just as an example, Jared Kushner, Trumps son in law is one of the US chief negotiators in the Middle East and with Ukraine/Russia. The close links between Isreal and the US are quite frankly unbelievable, the real ‘Special Relationship?’ It will be interesting to see how these sanctions announced by Milei the other night will affect the Isreali oil company that is working with Rockhopper, it would seem to be in contrast to the current close relationship between Milei & Netanyahu. Isreal is also buying up a tremendous amount of land in Argentina at the moment, one would think that an Israeli oil company involved in drilling for oil near the Falklands would be a positive outcome for Milei, and obviously also for Trump, who is hell bent on grabbing as much oil and precious minerals he can in the western hemisphere.
Another bit of ‘coincidence’ it’s another Kushna (a lawyer) who was involved with the failed attempt with Infantino to sell off 20+% of the World Cup, if I remember rightly Infantino might as well have been wearing an Argentinian footy top during the World Cup! I’m sure it’ll all be put down to coincidence though🙄
If Trump does come down on the side of Argentina in regards to the Falklands though, it will make it tricky for the U.K. Government internationally, regardless of what the Miliband Cooper and Burnham say to the contrary.
And to think, Trump thought Infantino should be in the UN..
To me there us a Trojan Horse feel to this non uk company entering the oil industry in Falklands . If Israel and Trump side with Argentina will make vary awkward for uk. And todays announcement from Miliband about Israeli settlements , well now Israel may suggest they can get a better oil rights deall from Argentina ? . My hunch Trump too busy at the moment , but if Trump or a JD vance type person win the next usa election , i think the heat will turn up considerably over the Falklands
Yeh👍 The Argentines are already in the process of trying to bring legal proceedings against the oil drilling.
Although;-
1. It’ll be Interesting to see what legal proceedings they are actually trying to bring against the company(s) it’s not their EEZ, so they don’t technically even have a say in what goes on, especially if it’s not breaking any international law, and,
2. Will the Isreali company be included as well? Uncle Bibi wouldn’t be pleased with that!
So yes, the Isreali company could well be a ‘Trojan’ company, hedging its bets either way. I can’t see Melei doing anything to upset his self professed love of all things Isreal, especially if that company is also based in the US making money for his new bestie Donald.
To add another aspect to things in the South Atlantic, I’m sure the agreement to not exploit Antarctica for minerals etc is coming to the end of its life very soon. I doubt very much in this age of resource centric politics the desire to keep Antarctica and its environs free from exploration/exploitation will be adhered to like it was, a ‘grateful’ Argentina will be an extremely attractive proposition to the likes of Trump & China.
Who knows we may even give the Falklands to Argentina and pay them for doing so like the Chicago’s island’s 🙄 🇬🇧
What does chicago have to do with anything?
Also, why do we need the Chagos islands? We don’t use them.
The chagos islands are essentially nothing more than an unappreciated favour to the US.. personally I think we should stick the population back on the islands and tell them to sort out what they want to do and sit back with popcorn..
I also think we should tell the island of kiddy fiddlers ( it’s literally so dangerous for children the UK government advises that no Children should be taken to the island) in the Pacific that we are not pissing Uk money up the wall for 40 people to live in their own little kingdom anymore..
Forgive me for spelling mistake 🙄 However does it make sense to pay Billions to another country to have them, specially has the UK is broke . I take it you have an interest in Defence has you post on ukdj ? With the state of our Armed forces would you not prefer to see the money be invested on them etc. Have a good day.
My concern is less a full invasion more and blockade/harassment campaign using air & sea drones, similar to the campaign the Ukrainians are successful waging against the Russians in Crimea.
Sea drones have a range of between 500-2000 nautical miles, and modern aerial drones can have ranges upto 12000km (6479.48 nautical miles) depending on the system. There is no reason to assume that Argentina could not aquire or built these systems.
Currently there are limited cost effective counters to these threats.
Without talking us down (which is incredibly easy to do these days, I mean where are the actual positives), what happens if there is a war and we lose 1 or 2 ships, even small ones? What happens if we lose a Typhoon or two? Shit happens, but how exactly are we supposed to replace such hardware? Especially the planes; when one’s gone, it’s gone. We can’t even get our world-famous display team in the air together.
How would we fill any gaps created in combat?
The typhoon line is still open so we can order more. Won’t be quick but they can be replaced. Unlike our trainers who the tories screwed over with no plan to replace them.
Interestingly all those tranche ones are still stashed, they are actively listed tail numbers.
The absolute crucial difference this time, is our American mmmmm long distant cousins from the black sheep of any family evidenced in there so called republic for 250 years.
My enemy’s enemy is my friend
What is clump trying to say 🤔 apart from what he has already said.
American betrayal is not out of the norm again evidenced in history
The usa always posed the greatest threat. Cept no one would accept it as its to horrible to contemplate
I do wonder if mount pleasant will soon be getting a few RAF reg deployed as Saab have just delivered a load more giraffe radars for anti drone systems as a UOR.
Overconfidence can and does lead to contempt. Such superiority attitudes throughout history have led to disaster.
Uk awareness of dangers is frightening and if / when things go wrong it will be the “man in the street”, not the politicians who will suffer.