Former MI6 Chief warns ‘Russia thinks it is at war with us’

The Defence Committee’s inquiry into “Defence in the Grey Zone” featured sobering testimony from Sir Alex Younger, former chief of MI6, who highlighted the increasingly complex threats posed by adversarial states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

Sir Alex outlined how these nations exploit vulnerabilities in liberal democracies, with Russia standing out for its perception of being in a state of conflict with the West.

Sir Alex provided a stark assessment of Russia’s approach to hybrid warfare. “Looking at Russia, the asymmetry in the relationship with Russia is, of course, all about capabilities and systems, but it is fundamentally about the fact that they think they are at war with us, and we do not think we are at war with them,” he said.

He explained how President Vladimir Putin views hybrid tactics as a form of horizontal escalation—a way to retaliate for perceived Western actions in Ukraine. “Putin is seized of the idea of horizontal escalation, which he believes is a reciprocal response to what we are doing in Ukraine. It is completely false and erroneous, but that is how he looks at it,” Sir Alex explained. This mindset drives Russia to actively deploy capabilities just below the threshold of armed conflict, such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sabotage, to undermine the UK and its allies.

In contrast, Sir Alex described China’s hybrid activities as driven by a fundamentally different agenda. “Looking at China, it is a completely different situation,” he said. “They do not conceive of themselves as being at war with us, and Chinese aims are, in fact, very different. They are essentially that China should rise and be allowed to pursue its own interests unfettered.”

Sir Alex pointed to China’s campaign against Taiwan as a prime example of hybrid warfare, describing it as a “textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment.” While less overtly combative than Russia’s approach, China’s sophisticated use of hybrid tactics remains a significant challenge.

Sir Alex emphasised that the UK faces hybrid threats from a “limited and recognisable number of actors.” He identified Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China as the principal sources of concern, each shaping their hybrid strategies based on their unique national situations and objectives.

For Russia, the combination of its belief in an ongoing conflict with the West and its capabilities in disinformation and cyberattacks makes it a particularly potent threat. Meanwhile, countries like North Korea and Iran use hybrid methods to offset their conventional military weaknesses, focusing on asymmetric tactics.

A recurring theme in Sir Alex’s testimony was how authoritarian regimes exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of democratic systems. “One of the manifestations of our values is a set of laws and boundaries,” he explained. Democracies differentiate between wartime and peacetime actions, with legal and institutional frameworks that limit responses during peace.

“If you are from a political dispensation that does not do that stuff, does not have any political accountability and can move at the speed of the autocratic whim, as opposed to the democratic will, you will have some potential advantages,” Sir Alex noted. He warned that adversaries could “do stuff that has the effect of war, but does not cross our threshold, in the knowledge that we will be constrained in our response.”

Sir Alex stressed the importance of recognising and addressing these threats, calling for increased resilience in the face of hybrid warfare. “There are things that you need to run a liberal democracy that are intrinsically vulnerable,” he said, adding that defending against these threats requires a nuanced and robust approach.