A British RC-135 is once again operating over the Black Sea near Crimea, the third deployment of a British surveillance aircraft to the region in the last seven days.
Before this deployment, the most recent was a flight that left the UK on the morning of the 29th to the Black Sea before returning to RAF Waddington in the afternoon. Five days before, on the 23rd of December, another RC-135 ‘Rivet Joint’ intelligence-gathering aircraft was deployed to monitor Russian forces around Crimea.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1476605691456598018
British surveillance aircraft being in the region isn’t unusual but we’re seeing a significant increase in the frequency of missions to the coast of Crimea. American assets are also present.
🇺🇸 US Air Force
E-8C JSTARS
REDEYE6Battlefield Management and Command and Control over Eastern Ukraine pic.twitter.com/KeZGj6rJ1x
— Zaes (@ZaesADSB) December 30, 2021
It should also be noted that these flights are designed to be visible so that the public and Russia know they’re happening.
What does the RC-135W do?
According to the Royal Air Force website, the RC-135W Rivet Joint is a dedicated electronic surveillance aircraft that can be employed in all theatres on strategic and tactical missions. Its sensors ‘soak up’ electronic emissions from communications, radar and other systems.
“RC-135W Rivet Joint employs multidiscipline Weapons System Officer (WSO) and Weapons System Operator (WSOp) specialists whose mission is to survey elements of the electromagnetic spectrum in order to derive intelligence for commanders.”
The Royal Air Force say that Rivet Joint has been deployed extensively for Operation Shader and on other operational taskings. It had been formally named Airseeker, but is almost universally known in service as the RC-135W Rivet Joint.
The UK operates three of these aircraft.
A peaceful new year?
Allies are being brought together and everybody is showing their true colours, even here on the board. Vlady should’ve done it when Trump was being impeached (Sept. 2019) for trying to use US Military Aid to bribe the Ukranian President. Now he’s just looking for attention it seems.
The Elint mission being done by the RAF in the Black Sea is fine. The USAF Redeye mission, over Ukrainian airspace, though is a major escalation from NATO. Hopefully it sends the right message to the Soviets (I say Soviets intentionally because they are obviously intent on rebuilding the Soviet empire). Although NATO won’t go to war over Ukraine, all other measures are on the table.
Without a NATO no fly zone over Ukraine the Ukrainians will struggle to resist a Russian incursion. We can’t gift them an air force over night but we can get them some Sky Sabre and Patriot batteries to give their ground forces some kind of air defence bubble to operate in though, get it done.
Rapier would be more appropriate. You have to assume some of it is going to end up in Russian hands.
Yes Chris. I doubt we have any Sky Sabre free to gift. Rapier is probably the best we can do from the UK but it isn’t a good missile. I remember doing some rapier training at Larkhill which involved tracking aircraft in a large shadow theatre; we struggled to track A4’s, Mig 29s would be a whole different ball game.
If it’s good enough for Washington and fifteen other countries! A useful bit of kit to have if you ask me.
“NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is the world’s first operational Network Centric Short to Medium Range Ground Based Air Defence System.
NASAMS is by nature a highly mobile system designed with a focus on operational flexibility for protection of Air Bases, Sea Ports, Populated Areas, other High-Value Assets and Army Forces.
NASAMS has proven interoperability with Higher Echelon units and longer range systems, such as Patriot. The modular design permits mission-oriented task force organization of NASAMS, allowing the operators to maximize the effect of the components and tailor the system to the task.
NASAMS has been protecting Washington DC 24/7 since 2005 demonstrating extreme reliability and with very high availability. NASAMS is designed for operations in the artic, sub-tropic and desert conditions.”
https://www.kongsberg.com/kda/products/defence-and-security/integrated-air-and-missile-defence/nasams-air-defence-system/
No Rapier is a 50 year old missile. Began design in 1963, introduced in 1971 to British Forces. Yes the software has changed but little else.
He’s not talking about Rapier.
Correct!
I was talking about the Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System.
The imperialism didn’t start with the Soviets, many of their arguments for expansion are based on their previous territorial extent as the Russian Empire.
So give Putin a chance, he will occupy Sweden and Poland than!
In 1945 when Stalin was congratulated on Russia capturing Berlin he grumpily replied that Tsar Alexander reached Paris !
We and most likely the whole of NATO will monitor, gather intelligence, spend an awful lot on fuel and then let Russia get on with things. Its what they and we do.
100% correct. If there is an invasion, sanctions and perhaps provision of Intel are the only response. Everything else is just pretending – which of course is what the West does best … very angry sounding press releases and then continue to import Russian gas.
We are not doing nothing. The UK has trained 1000s of Ukrainian soldiers, provided 1000s of infantry soldier protection kits, shared intel, provided javelin missiles, provided naval training and has agreed a deal to provide corvettes. Other NATO countries have stepped up too. The thing is, if Russia does invade, we either go to war (ie WW3) or provide all assistance short of war.
However you need to consider this; what / how will Russia gain from occupying the Ukraine? It would cost several 1000 casualties and then require a large occupation army that would gradually be whittled away by Ukrainian insurgents supplied by the west.
It’s a bluff. Putin isn’t that stupid.
Agreed. I just wonder what the Russian military are making of all this posturing. That is a wild card that Putin should be more worried about than NATO.
For now, a lot of them have been brainwashed. Russian media have done a ‘good’ job with the propaganda with a significant number of the Russian people.
But should sons (and daughters to a lesser degree) start not coming home in large numbers, that could very quickly change. And Putin knows that.
Completely agree! Ukraine now has a far better trained and equipped military than it did in 2014 and could most likely give any Russian invasion a bloody nose.
They could no doubt win by sheer weight of numbers but at what cost? Russia has a smaller GDP than Italy and the prospective of war isn’t popular on the streets. Thousands dead and then a country of 40 million people to try and subjugate are headache’s Putin can’t afford.
It’s all a bluff to try and get concessions from the west.
I don’t think it would ever be wise to try and bring Ukraine into NATO but providing everything short of actual boots on the ground to ensure they remain robust in the face of Russian aggression is very much in our interest.
Although they won’t particularly want to start fighting without their radars and other emitters running, and they won’t particularly want to do that while we’re there to soak it all in.
This could be a great opportunity for us to learn their strengths and weaknesses, and they know it.
And we can stuff them up with EW too.
There is a lot we can do without missiles and bombs: they know that.
Think back when the Israelis bombed various places with Russian SAM’s in place. Essentially switched them off and turned on when they left.
Sure we don’t want to reveal too much but Vlad knows if he pushes too hard all we have to do is stall him and leave him exposed for the losses to mount up.
Helped with a bit of kit.
Frankly Stinger SAM’s would be enough to down most of the Soviet era junk.
Public opinion then defeats him.
Rapier wasn’t much use, in my experience. So I’d say it was in the fig lead department.
I’ve gone back and forth over whether NATO or individual countries within NATO should deploy forces to help Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack, and i’m still not sure. I watched numerous lectures last night about the Ukrainian conflict, and today i’m of the thought that NATO or members of it shouldn’t get involved in any fighting. Ukraine should be left as a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Like it always should have been.
If NATO keeps pushing, but without helping in an actual fight, I feel Ukraine is just going to get beaten down bit by bit by Russia and the country completely ruined beyond what it already is.
Crimea is part of Russia now! It isn’t going back to being part of Ukraine any time soon, if ever. Ukraine should forget the idea and all the rhetoric about taking it back. As for Eastern Ukraine, I can’t see that going back into Ukraine’s hands either, but the situation there is more complicated than that of Crimea.
Is this appeasement? No, not at all, it’s the logical thing to do. The two countries are historically very intertwined, and many people fail to realise this.
As for our likely response, ie more sanctions, it will have little effect in the long run whilst those in power in Russia still have the Soviet mentality.
“Ukraine should be left as a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Like it always should have been.”
Spot on. It’s like deliberately moving into a house next door to an arch enemy and expecting no trouble. Not a wise thing to do.
Good Morning Daniele! Logic as in Challengers post above makes sense but don’t discount pissing off one little man into acting in a moment of personal anger and sparking Armageddon!
I hear you are enjoying 15 degrees down South! All the Best for the New Year.
ps did i ever tell you Summer is the worst time to visit Durban? Pissing with rain here..
Morning geoff!
Yes! You did. And its pissing with rain here too.
Thanks Daniele, wise words Let’s not keep Poking the Bear so too speak
You have forgotten Daniele, or is it another case of you back sliding again, is the Budapest Memorandum to give Ukraine security in exchange for giving up Nukes.
The Ukrainians voted in a referendum to join NATO and EU.
Why should the big powers decide the fate of minor countries that are young democracies? They are being treated like no better than children!
As I have said before, the Iron Lady would be very disappointed in you!
Morning M.
Actually I had forgotten that, In which case we are in a bit of a corner aren’t we. I admit I have never read up on it apart from posters comments on here.
But how many other treaties have nations ignored as the situation changes?
I’m curious, where please have I “again backslided” ? As far as I’m aware my comments have not changed regards Ukraine and NATO membership.
Can you dig up an example in the comments history.
Why should big powers decide the fate of minor countries that are young democracies? Because that is what big powers do?
Let me give you one, cat amongst the pigeons! Why should the western powers ( that’s us, the USA, and so on ) be able to invade other nations with impunity but other nations cannot?
Now Russia is a threat to world peace, and yet we were not in our actions in the Middle East?
What would we have thought if China, Russia, Iran, any country opposed to us, had decided to face us down and move to the brink of war because we illegally
invaded Iraq?
We would not have liked it would we?
I think this is what is seen by so many as western hypocricy.
And I supported the Iraq invasion myself, wrongly it turns out.
The Iron lady? I actually think she had a bit more sense! And then GSFG was at NATOs front door. Russian forces are now at Ukraine’s front door, not NATOs.
This is the sticking point I think. How far to go to oppose an expansionist Russia without open war.
And just having read your typical insult to me below, I’m sooooo getting the popcorn out waiting to see what sort of reply I’m going to get.
I predict an evasive one, with lots if insults and ignoring points raised, if your other comment below is anything to go by.
I’m waiting.
“What would we have thought if China, Russia, Iran, any country opposed to us, had decided to face us down and move to the brink of war because we illegally
invaded Iraq?”
The Russians had voted for the UN resolutions on Iraq, so it would of been hypocritical for them to had challenged the invasion of Iraq.
😀 The resolutions were irrelevant. My hypothetical point on rushing to confrontation still stands.
And you’ve evaded all of my points, with a weak reply to but one, as I predicted.
At least you’re being civil and not throwing “traitor” and other insults around.
But if you do that matey you’ll get it back with interest. After all, who are you to define a traitor?
Meirion X, anybody defending a mafia state invading it’s own neighbors is not even worthy of a response from you. The gaslighting in this thread is extreme. Russia is a mafia state full stop.
Usual comments from the usual suspects here.
Don’t show fear in the face of the bear, if you don’t poke he’ll take a bite.
In a few years I expect to see similar comments along the lines of “Poland should be a buffer state, as it always should have been”
I completely agree with you, Russia has already taken Crimea, any more Russian aggression must be met with force.
“Don’t show fear in the face of the bear, if you don’t poke he’ll take a bite.”
I shall look forward to you swimming in the ocean off S Africa and showing no fear to the Great White Sharks who live there. If they bite, who’s fault is it? Not theirs. They live there. You went there, you takes your chances.
Ukraine is not NATO territory and NATO facing off against Russia over it risks war.
This is 1962 in reverse in Russia’s eyes regards NATO involvement. Russia went too far then parking missiles off Florida and had to back down as Kennedy was ready to react to Russian missiles next door.
But the reverse never seems to apply.
Now Russia were acting like it is against a NATO nation that is a different story, then by all means confront and deter a bully.
There is a big difference from arming Ukraine to the teeth and NATO providing assistance as a proxy and openly facing Russia over it with missions right over its airspace, as outlined by a poster above.
We rushed to war against Iraq in 2003 while other European nations hesitated, said so, and were slated or it. They were correct.
Finally, “usual suspects here”
Suspects of what? I’m no suspect of anything, thanks. Just a person with a different opinion to you.
Finally a traitor, I see?
Did Ukraine say, once they had joined NATO, they will allow another country to attack Russia from its territory, really?
I am really disappointed a intelligent person like you has swallowed all the Dis- information that is out there.
I think you have “Reds under the Beds”syndrome Merion. I recall you threw that at me a few years back when you appeared here.
Or maybe you just cannot stomach a differing opinion and talk in a civil manner like I’m trying to without resorting to accusations?
Unlike you, im here, with a real name. Look me up! Lets have a beer and talk sensibly, unlike yourself with a nameless , faceless account on here throwing accusations about.
I can play that game too. Are you British? Doubtful, with your use of English.
Are you a Chinese bot? Urging war on other nations?
See, it’s not nice is it.
By the way, I replied in detail to your other post. I wonder if you’ll answer all the points raised.
“Traitor….” deary me.
‘I shall look forward to you swimming in the ocean off S Africa and showing no fear to the Great White Sharks who live there. If they bite, who’s fault is it? Not theirs. They live there. You went there, you takes your chances…”
What if Europeans had not explored or had gone to Africa, would it be better or worse? Lost opportunities? No gold mines. The Chinese might have gone there first.
The comment was not about Africa, Merion! 😀 You don’t seem to be understanding my meanings regards Ukraine.
Then again, if your a bot, Chinese, Ukranian, or Iranian you wouldn’t….! 😂
Your point on Europeans and Africa. I myself would not change history there at all, and I’m proud of Europeans role in world history. Who knows how history would have turned out differently with all these ifs?
Now, yes, China is exploiting for all its worth and I’m against it as they are against the west.
Then Germany after that!
As I said, I am unsure about where I stand. Only a few weeks ago I actually wrote a post on here saying that we should poke the bear and stick two fingers up at Putin. I still stand by that.
But Ukraine is an unusual subject. It isn’t Poland or the Baltic States, which are NATO countries.
I still feel Putin’s long game is to eventually take Kiev. It is culturally very significant to him. It is the home of the Kievan Rus: “The modern nations of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus’ as their cultural ancestors, with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it.” And Kiev was it’s capital from 882-1240.
In the short term, as has been stated by some others, he may just try and take all the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine.
Its alright NATO saying there will be serious consequences, but we all know that there won’t be. So it makes al the rhetoric just empty words.
It’s like saying, ” We’ve got your back!”, but then not actually having their backs.
What will we do when Russia takes Belarus? Nothing! Although Belarus is all but part of Russia already.
On that basis then, Transylvania belongs to Hungary, since it was the first area,settled by the Magyar.
I agree. Vlady is just really upset about the fact that his S-Ten Thousand System can’t shoot down a Turkish drone so he feels the need to invade more territory to soothe his militarily fragile ego. At this point, the West should just offer him a deal to leave his post and play the villain in a series of Bond films. Everybody’s happy and problem solved!
What Nonsense!
Is it M? He says he has lived in Russia and has Russian family. If that’s true I’m interested in his words. I’ve never lived there, so my comments are a simple opinion, but have little weight.
It is true!! If anyone doesn’t believe me, I am willing to meet you in person. A date? LOL
I lived half my adult life in Russia, which was definitely not in the plan LOL Came back to the UK with a wife, kids and a new language. I’ve met many great people in Russia, and many not so great too. Living in Russia/abroad has allowed me to see things from the other person’s view and to understand the mentality inside out. One thing that has not happened, is that I have not gone ‘native’, ie i don’t blindly think Russia is a great place and shouldn’t have a word said against it. I’ve seen foreigners fall into this trap, and it’s not pleasant to see.
Russia, internally, is a mess… from my point of view! Low standard of living, low wages, rife corruption, low male life expectancy, highest suicide rate in the world among men, lots of alcoholism, less and less personal freedoms, no rule of law, no accountability and the list goes on. I’d had enough of the place, and don’t want my kids growing up there.
I’ve met numerous people, many in fact, that want to leave, but that doesn’t mean they don’t love their country, just what’s happening to it. Conversely, I’ve met many who want to stay and who want to improve their country from within.
I have nothing against the country, and I will always go back there. It’s a great experience, sometimes good and sometimes bad.
I’m not doubting you mate. Just saying as you have lived there I respect your view as you know the bear!
Yes RM has gone very wishy-washy lately, was good a while back ago.
I am sure he been taken over by the GRU, or composed, I think?
As I said though, I’m divided myself on the subject of Ukraine. One can just look back through some of my posts from recent weeks.
I just don’t feel Ukraine is that important to us that it’s worth getting into a firefight for. That said, much can be said about numerous conflicts we’ve gotten ourselves into.
I’m in agreement. Appeasement does not work. Nor in my opinion is WW3 the answer over non NATO territory. So what is the answer?
There must be some middle ground, and supporting Ukraine with money, intelligence, and modern arms and, as SB suggests above, non lethal cyber and EW stuff could be an answer.
The rush by some to go to WW3 over Ukraine who just cannot see that sometimes its sensible to tread carefully is frightening.
My initial response was to just say to Russia, “Come on big boy, let’s see what you’ve got” as I know the mentality. But now, specifically in regard to Ukraine, I don’t think that is the correct approach. Does Ukraine really mean that much to us? Yes, if it fell into the hands of Putin he could boast about how strong he thinks he is and how weak the West is, but does it really matter to us in the long run?
Maybe, like you say, we should just do what we are now, ie arming the Ukrainians etc. But more sanctions won’t do much.of anything and will be used by Putin as a propaganda tool against us with his own people.
You mention cyber, and I often would at how successful the West’s cyber attacks have been against Russia. We never seem to hear much about them, ie Russia boasts about them under the guise of some made up group. Surely we have the ability to do the same and more?
Given my understanding of other areas of the intelligence community, the might of GCHQ/NSA, and the UK military elements supporting them, more, lots more!
Much of our cyber effort is defensive in nature. The offensive stuff has only been hinted at before, but exists. Now with the NCF National Cyber Force standing up to take on the offensive side that area will only increase.
But why reveal our hand. That traitor Snowden revealed too much already. ( Merion take note…a real traitor there, not just some poor sod with a differing opinion. )
Do you have a background in security?
Yeah, Snowden makes me laugh. Releases all these secrets, then runs off to Russia to hide.
At least I went to Russia for different reasons lol
I realise, that when reading some of the comments ion this site, that there is loads i don’t know about, well, everything.
Only thing I can bring is a deep understanding of the Russian mentality.
No mate. None whatsoever.
I’m just very well read on certain areas and I research stuff, as a hobby.
It is surprising what you can find if you look into things.
I have only been to Russia once. We went to St Petersburg, then train to Finland. I thought St P was fantastic, but I could see the differences from the areas aimed at the western tourist and other areas of Russia we saw on TV and in the suburbs.
I remember the atmosphere going into a stationers, like their version of WH Smiths. Eyes on you everywhere you went, like the old mentality had never left.
Also, the girls! I have never seen so many stunners in one place. A friend told me later they are often call girls after the western businessmen in hotels. So that’s why every woman I saw in the hotel was a stunner!
Beyond that, I’m really interested in the history of the Great Patriotic War / Eastern front of WW2, and have sympathy with Russia’s side of things regards that, so I’m aware of the geography and the various places in Russia through studying that. I’d love to go to Volgograd, for example, to the Mamayev Kurgan. I have had enjoyable discussions with Ulya on here regards that.
So I myself appreciate your input. You know them, after all.
Cheers.
I was amazed when as a passenger in a taxi the driver started talking to me about Lend Lease. He knew the amounts and numbers of pretty much everything that went to the USSR from the British and the US. He was particularly grateful to the British. He even said that the USSR wouldn’t have been able to have beaten Germany back without Lend Lease.
Another chap I talked to told how his father thought it would have been better if the Germans would have won and that the USSR and now Russia would be better for it. This is how much he thought Stalin and the USSR was worse than you know who…
I’ve visited many military museum here. Often they have T-34s and Katushkas, which have become part of folklore in Russia.
I never made it to Volgograd, but I often thought about going. It’s one of many places in Russia still on the list.
It’s probably true. While the Soviet industry out produced Germany on Tanks and other stuff they relied on the wests aid for things like trucks which gavethem the mobility.
Yes, Stalin’s Organs! We visited the closest point the Germans got to South East of Leningrad. A Soviet Anti Tank Gun still marks the spot.
Considering the Nazi Generalplan Ost envisiged murdering 30 million slavs, or was it 70 million, don’t think they would have been better off. But what a position to be in, facing Germany for your survival and a leader in Stalin who killed millions more than the Nazis did.
Where were you in Russia, if you can say?
Rather not say, not that it’s a secret LOL I travelled to many places, but there’s loads more I would like to visit.
Russia outside of the big two is a different world in many respects. Many different nationalities and cultures all living under one roof. Most people outside of Russia call them all Russians, ie the word Russians covers both people from Russia and the Slavic people the Russians, but in Russia they have separate words for all those from Russia – Rossiyan (pl. Rossiyane) – and those who are specifically Russian/Slavic – Russki (pl.Russkii). Russians are both Russki and Rossiyan, and some people nowadays use the term Russki even if ethnically they are not due to the Russification of the peoples of Russia.
I thought you’d not, and respect that completely.
But that overview of the terminology is very simplistic, and many people identify as their ethnic group but at the same time as citizens of the Russian Federation.
.
It has now. As I replied above, I was not doubting you.
Nah, all logical stuff.
Just a different opinion to yours.
“Ukraine should be left as a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Like it always should have been.”
The concept of of ‘buffer zones or states is absurd and illogical!
How do you keep buffer states to your line of thinking, consisting of thousands of people? Impose an autocatic regime? It will only be matter time it will be overthrown and of no longer want to be a buffer and change sides. Even if Russia used it’s own territory to create buffer states, they will eventually turn against it and change sides. And then Russia is back to square one, with the cycle repeating!
It seems like Russia is the only state in the world calling for this idea.
How absurd can you get!
Russia appears to be helping increase defence spending in Europe!
“Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis passed the State Budget for 2022 on 28 December, a week after the Parliament gave its approval.
As a percentage of the budget, this is a move from 15% in 2015 to 32% in 2022 and is projected to reach 41% in 2025, exceeding the 20% NATO target.”
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/romania-passes-state-budget-increases-defence-spending
Correct Nigel. Russia can’t ever out spend NATO. In fact if European members spent the same% of GDP on defence as the USA the Russian armed forces would be completely outmatched. We all need to remember that although Russia is a very large country it is a relatively small (and vulnerable) economy.
Even if a PPP study shows Russia spending 150 billion USD per year, the top five Nato nation (excluding the USA) spend between them 249 billion USD.
Yes, by Europe alone.
I know the Americans have JSTARS aircraft in the area, but if Sentinel was still with the RAF I suspect it would have been deployed too.
Sentinel was way too useful for the MoD to keep!
Best we can hope for in the future is some ISTAR pods that can be added to the RAF’s Posiedon’s for an overland capability.
That is precisely what is happening. JSTAR is increasingly difficult to maintain and the tech is becoming smaller. Zephyr a low orbit craft that can stay airborne for weeks on end and can be deployed anywhere is the new tech. Its also affordable. Alot has been said recently about Russian missiles that can take down low orbit satellites, try taking out a craft like Zephyr.
I may be wrong but my understanding of Zephyr is that it’ll be a communications relay and provide satellite imagery rather than the more detailed battlefield surveillance Sentinel and JSTAR are capable of?
A slow moving, high altitude UAV is surely far easier to take down than faster moving aircraft that can evade radar?
Plug and play systems for Poseidon still seem like the most cost effective solution.
Battlefield surveillance tech has moved on Zephyr is an extremely lightweight ABV with a tiny radar signature, slow moving, Yes. But extremely difficult to detect.
NATO Global Hawk has been deployed over Ukraine from Germany. Does the same job as Sentinel.
The general narrative been promulgated here is that Russia is going to invade the whole of the Ukraine and one Moscow is happy to see banded about. I personally can’t see the above transpire simply as it’s a premise which the West will use in which to appease Moscow by claiming, why its not as bad as we thought it was and Moscow has a point. So what I’m I talking about?
After Moscow annexed the Crimea in 2014 they failed on 2 points:
1) Secure a land bridge to the Crimea
2) Secure the water source
The lack of a land bridge between Russia/The separatist area has resulted in acute shortages in everything and anything, with the only link to Russia being a new railway bridge which only started shifting freight June 2020
Water wise, after Moscow took the Crimea, Kiev cut the water supply, which until then supplied around 80% of the Crimea’s needs. Since then water shortages has been the name of the game and the taps are only on for about 3 hours a day.
The biggest issue for Moscow is water and if they were to carry out a limited land operation in which to secure the land above the Dnieper river which at a stroke would not only resolve the above 2 issues, but also give them a much more easily defendable front line (The Dnieper river) . The Russians have laid the groundwork by:
1) Use of the gas weapon across Europe
2) Use the media to peddle their NATO is the one to blame here propaganda
3) Strike during a time of a much divided Europe (UK ,Brexit issues, France Elections, Poland, Hungary EU diktats, COVID)
4) Complain to the ECHR regards Kiev cutting off water. (which affords to Moscow the legitimate right to strike)
5) A apathetic public who don’t want to see a war in their backyard
Which I feel will result (if Moscow goes in) of appeasement.
(Part shaded in red is all that Moscow needs)
Farouk, even in that scenario the Russians would have to occupy an area the size of France and a population of 15 million. Such an operation would take the ongoing commitment of at least a division for10 years – really?
I would say Farouks assesment is accurate and quite possibly entirely achievable.
The vast majority of people in that area are pro Russian, but, there may well be enough resistance to fire up an insurgency post invasion ( supported by Ukraine and others) that Russia will find difficult to deal with and impossible to shut down.
I don’t think they will go further, unless it gets out of control, baring in mind the steady reconstruction of the Ukrainian Armed forces over the last 5 years, the Russians had better steal themselves for serious casualties, the Ukrainians will make them pay for every foot of ground.
Serious Ukrainian counterattacks, could lead to Russia striking into Ukraine in depth, if that happens, then throw the dice, it could rapidly get very out of hand.
One thing’s for sure, Putin is an extremely serious threat to world peace….
Why cannot Russia just pump water across the Kerch Straights?
Would Putin need all of southern Ukraine north of the Azov along the coast?
For those unaware the Kerch Straight is east of the Crimea on F’s map where it joins the Russian landmass. I only know of it because of the film Cross of Iron and the Russian front!!
The Germans also built a bridge across the straight in WW 2.
Russia did not annexed crime. 95% of the people of crime voted to be part of the Russian federation. They invoked resolution 542, the right of self determination. Who gave NATO the right to bomb Yougoslavia and slit the country without asking the people.
Mohamed,
Self determination is enshrined in the founding document of the Law and not Res 542, which pertains to the situation in Lebanon during 1983. But there’s more, the Crimea belonged to the Ukraine, if the population wanted to cede from the Ukraine and become part of Russia then the vote should have been carried out by Kiev and not Moscow. But here is where it gets better, when Chetneya demanded to leave Mother Russia, Moscow bombed the country into the stone age and installed a pro Moscow thug in which to keep the plebs under control. Where was the self determination there.
As for FRY, that is a non sequitur . Oh just for the record I was based in GV when NATO decided to go in after the Serbs tried to play hardball by kidnapping a load of Dutch and British Soldiers in which to stop the UN from carrying out its remit to protect people across FRY. In other words, I’ve got the T-shirt, met the cast and read the script.
Absolute rubbish.
Russia annexed Crimea. Then under Russian occupation a referendum was staged were the result was to become part of Russia. Which is ironic, because the people of Russia know better than anyone else that Putin stuffs ballot boxes to get the result he wants.
This scenario would also make the Azov Sea; an extremely rich source of fish, a purely Russian possession. Given the Russian seizure of Ukrainian Naval vessels the last time they tried to enter it via the Kerch Straight, it would seem Putin already regards the sea as something purely for Russia to control.
No different from what USA does in their own backyard. Read the mondrone document
Do tell when did American warships last seize Cuban warships for daring to sail in the Caribbean?
Are you a troll or simply stupid?
I am not a troll or stupid. If you cannot make any sensible and relevant comment avoid getting personal. That is pure ignorance on your part. Cuba is in the Caribbean in case you did not know, so stating when last did American warships seized Cuban warships sailing in the Caribbean simply does not make sense! Did you read what the mondrone document is?
In case you have difficulty reading, it states the western hemisphere is America’s backyard and all those countries like Caribbean, central America and Latin America ‘belongs’ to the USA.
Now USA is in Russia’s backyard telling Ukraine what to do. Don’t you think Russia has the right to feel threatened? You cannot have security at the expense of the other. Anyone with two brain cells on active duty can see that. I am not saying you belong in that category but you are getting very close to it. Have a nice day!
“The general narrative been promulgated here is that Russia is going to invade the whole of the Ukraine and one Moscow is happy to see banded about.I personally can’t see the above transpire”
You maybe right at present, but the ultimate goal is to take Kiev. Putin can’t stand it being under the influence of the West.
To me this makes no sense at all, the timing doesn’t add up. When Russia captured crimea, it could have easily steamrolled the rest of Ukraine, and Putin made a big point about it at the time. Instead they waited a few years, during which Ukraine has massively built up it’s miltiary, taken lots of western training etc, and therefore will be a significantly harder job to defeat. So what has changed, why did they decide not take the whole country when they first attacked, but decide to take it now.