A new Big Ask feature from Britain’s World, the Council on Geostrategy’s online magazine, explores whether the Russian Navy remains a credible threat to the United Kingdom after years of setbacks in Ukraine and mounting mechanical failures.
The discussion follows comments by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who joked about a Russian submarine “limping” through the North Sea under escort. Yet several contributors warned that technical issues should not be mistaken for strategic weakness.
Benedict Baxendale-Smith argued that Russia’s continued investment of more than £77 billion in naval modernisation shows clear intent, saying Britain still faces risks from nuclear submarines, long-range missiles, and a “shadow fleet” that threatens undersea infrastructure.
John Foreman, former British Defence Attaché to Moscow, said the Russian Northern Fleet remains “a credible and capable threat,” citing its submarine-launched nuclear forces and modern missile systems. Professor Basil Germond of Lancaster University noted that while Russia would struggle to match NATO in open-ocean warfare, its submarines and civilian “research vessels” are well suited to sabotage and sub-threshold operations that could disrupt British interests.
Some contributors, including defence analyst H. I. Sutton, urged continued caution, pointing to evolving Russian submarine and mine warfare technology as potential dangers in the North Atlantic. Matthew Palmer, a Council on Geostrategy fellow, added that despite poor maintenance and morale, “the Russian Navy remains a dangerous conventional adversary that Britain cannot ignore.”
The consensus, according to the feature, is that while Russia’s surface fleet has weakened, its submarines, covert operations, and capacity for disruption mean it remains a capable and unpredictable force.
Read the full discussion at Britain’s World, the Council on Geostrategy’s magazine on Britain’s role and security.
Yes.
No.
Maybe.
There you have it.
The Russian navy is the only serious current naval threat we have to counter. China’s growing fleet is a concern to neighbouring countries and their US alliy but hardly to Europe.
Rebuilding our ASW frigate capability, expanding modernised MCM operations and adding to seabed infrastructure protection should be top priorities.
PeterS, the Chinese Navy is already sailing in our waters, and I fear they intend to keep us in check for the foreseeable future. There appears to be no evidence that the growth of their navy is slowing; in fact, on the contrary, it’s expanding at a worrying rate.
as long as the Russians have the ability to rain down cruise missiles on preselected targets,, they will be a k serious threat although they can’t seem to hit anything with them and rely nowadays on mass drone attacks, drones seem to be very easily shot down and stealth in that area doesn’t appear to be very high on the agenda.threat
Simple answer yes. It only takes one cruise missile armed sub to get into the Atlantic undetected.
Arrogance has been the cause of many a defeat…..The US has found this out many times…
The HS2 money would be better spent on UK air defences and ASW !
Don’t agree, surely it’s important, vitally so indeed, to get the home guard to Birmingham as soon as possible.
You have it all wrong, HS2 lets the Birmingham Yeomanry deploy rapidly to old oak common and once the Huston end is finished they will be able to rapidly deploy anywhere in Europe 😀
So you think the UK invests too much in infrastructure?
u. knair defences? to protest all the MP’homes?
No… the Russian Navy is not a threat to the UK.
The surface fleet really isn’t a threat outside of the Barents Sea and marginal even there for long I suspect. But I would like to see the Norwegian coast and Greenland’s eastern coast more asset rich to make sure it can be neutralised asap. Submarines are the problem but if they become vulnerable even there then that can help negate their effectiveness as much as possible.
The Russian navy is probably the only direct threat in the world that can threaten the British mainland.
However it’s not much of a threat and even the diminished current Royal Navy is able to counter it much less the entire weight of NATO in the Atlantic.
Russian Navy Combat Ship Inventory (2025)
Aircraft Carrier 1 Admiral Kuznetsov
Battlecruisers 2 Pyotr Velikiy, Admiral Nakhimov (modernized)
Cruisers 3 Slava-class (Marshal Ustinov, Varyag, Moskva lost in 2022)
Destroyers 8 Primarily Sovremenny-class, aging fleet
Frigates 11 Includes Admiral Gorshkov and Grigorovich classes
Corvettes 88 Steregushchiy, Buyan-M, Karakurt classes dominate
Submarines (Total) 58
• Ballistic Missile (SSBN) 11 Borei and Delta IV classes
• Cruise Missile (SSGN) 9 Oscar II class
• Nuclear Attack (SSN) 10 Akula, Sierra, Yasen classes
• Diesel Attack (SSK) 24 Kilo and Improved Kilo classes
• Special Purpose 4 Intelligence and deep-sea missions
Amphibious Ships 19 Ropucha, Ivan Gren, Alligator classes
Mine Warfare Vessels 51 Includes minesweepers and minehunters
Patrol Ships & Boats 31 Offshore patrol vessels and fast attack craft
even though it is so decrepit , and very poorly run t will be neutralised very quickly. even the land capacity which has been utterly trashed by the Ukrainians would be a fish in a barrel shooting game. the losses of their army and air force have been totally ineffective the areas of the russian threat, I believe would come from the vast artillery it has. the outlawing of cluster munitions has reduced the lethality of NATO. for attacking ground targets supply convoys e. t. c
I’m not so sure. Never underestimate your enemy.
Take a look at the bigger picture.
Yes, they have enormous losses in Ukraine, but they keep coming, they keep attacking on many fronts, they are slowly gaining territory.
There is no sign of them slowing down or stopping. Does that look like a country that is on its last legs? I don’t think so.
Russia’s strength is in its ability to absorb huge losses and yet keep this attritional war going.
NATO needs to be ready for a long and costly war meaning:
Improving military industrial capacity and speedy procurement
Having a strong Economy to weather a long war.
Convincing the general public to support the war until it ends.
The main threat from the russian Navy is its Submarine fleet
Also, keep in mind Russia still has a lot of combat aircraft, that do not appear to have been used in Ukraine.
Not all of those ships are present in the Northern Fleet, and so would not be directed against the UK.
anyone who downplays Russia’s sub fleet is missing the plot and a threat for being naive
a threat not just for Britain
MATO SSN’S WILL MAKE SHORT WORK OF ANY THAT GETS INTO OPEN WATERS
one would hope, but ocean is big and subs are not easy to find, that is why SSBN is the preferred nuclear weapons delivery system
only 3 NATO members operate SSN (US 22xVirginia + 24xLos Angeles, UK 6xAtute and Fra 3xSuffren + 2xRubis) and Russia has a pretty big sub fleet with around 60 subs (SSBN, SSN and SSK). Atlantic and Indo-Pacific make it a lot of ground to cover for just 3 Nato countries
and Arctic
Yes it is a threat. Even if half is servicable, it is a threat. To deny it is plain stupidity.
As long as we stay (or get back on) the course of rearmament they will still pose a threat, but not an existential one.
The biggest danger is defeatism leading to inaction or declaring victory early and trying to scrape a peace dividend out of the defence budget.
In short: Keep calm and carry on (rebuilding the armed forces.)