NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning that Russia may be ready to launch military action against the Alliance within five years, calling for a “quantum leap” in defence spending and industrial mobilisation to avert future conflict.
Speaking at Chatham House in London, Rutte delivered a detailed address ahead of the NATO Summit in The Hague later this month, outlining a vision for a “stronger, fairer and more lethal” NATO in response to a rapidly deteriorating global security environment.
“Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years,” he stated. “Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the Eastern flank now.”
The comment marks one of the clearest and most urgent warnings yet from the NATO leadership about the scale and speed of the threat posed by Moscow’s ongoing rearmament.
Rutte said Russia, aided by partners including China and North Korea, is rebuilding its military power faster than previously estimated.
“Putin’s war machine is speeding up – not slowing down. Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology, and producing more weapons faster than we thought,” he said.
“In terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year. Its defence industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armoured vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone.”
These figures serve as the foundation for a major shift in NATO’s strategic planning. Rutte confirmed that the upcoming summit will seek approval from Allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP—more than double the previous target set in 2014.
“At the Summit in The Hague, I expect Allied leaders will agree to spend 5% of GDP on defence,” he said, describing the shift as “a defining moment for the Alliance.”
This new target would be split, with 3.5% to go directly toward core military needs such as new platforms, ammunition, and capabilities, while the remaining 1.5% would support industrial investment, infrastructure, and broader defence-related spending.
“5% is not some figure plucked from the air, it is grounded in hard facts,” he said. “The fact is, we need a quantum leap in our collective defence. The fact is, we must have more forces and capabilities to implement our defence plans in full. The fact is, danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends.”
Referencing classified defence planning targets approved by NATO Defence Ministers last week, Rutte outlined the Alliance’s ambitions in concrete terms: a 400% increase in air and missile defences, millions more artillery shells, thousands of new tanks and armoured vehicles, and significant expansion in logistics, transport, and medical capacity.
“Our militaries also need thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks. Millions more artillery shells. And we must double our enabling capabilities, such as logistics, supply, transportation, and medical support,” he said.
Rutte also praised the United Kingdom directly for its support to NATO, highlighting its forward-deployed troops, air policing missions, and naval command roles.
“I want to thank the United Kingdom for more than seven decades of continuous commitment to NATO. It makes vital contributions to our shared security,” he said, adding that he “warmly welcomed” the UK’s new Strategic Defence Review and planned increases in spending.
The Secretary General’s speech comes amid mounting concern over NATO’s industrial readiness. He warned that without rapid increases in production capacity, even higher budgets could be wasted.
“Otherwise the commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence will be lost to production costs, rather than invested in defence,” he cautioned. “We will support increased defence production, remove barriers to cooperation, and harness cutting edge-technologies.”
Rutte also struck a note of urgency about NATO’s overall readiness to confront looming threats.
“To preserve peace, we must prepare for war. Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. We cannot dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy.”
Citing a famous line from Winston Churchill—“Will there be time to put our defences in order? Or will the awful words ‘too late’ be recorded?”—he reinforced the stakes of inaction.
The Hague summit will also address burden-sharing across the Alliance. Rutte stressed that the new approach would not only increase total spending but rebalance contributions, with European and Canadian Allies expected to carry more of the weight.
“America’s Allies have broad shoulders, and Europe and Canada will do more for our shared security,” he said. “And that will be backed by America’s rock-solid commitment to NATO.”
He ended with a call for unity and resolve in the face of rising authoritarian threats, warning that peace cannot be taken for granted.
“There are no second chances when it comes to our security. So, we will deliver in The Hague… Together, we will secure peace through strength. Together, we will build a better NATO.”
I’d suggest they’d strike in 2 or maybe 3. We have too many centres of gravity
Our best defence is looking like a Putin voodoo doll. Get the pins out!
I agree with the increase in defence spending across all NATO countries, but I don’t think Putin would be stupid enough to deliberately get into a war with NATO. He can’t really think he could take on most of Europe and America. Maybe if America got into a full-scale war with China and had to withdraw most of it’s forces?
Russia is even unable even to defeat Ukraine. Please finish hysteria.
It’s not hysteria – they are rearming exceptionally quickly. As Metz says ‘US lawmakers have no idea of the scale of Russian rearmament’… lots of people have their heads in the sand.
So do you think the Russians are just using the donkeys to pull logistics and e scooters for meat assaults for fun then?
Secretly they have this massive armoured vehicle production some where? Anyone seen them make any planes recently? Even if they could make
1500 tanks ( current figure is between 200 and 390) how long would they last in the face of NATO air power with no AirPower and only the S400 to rely on.
One Typhoon can carry 16 Brimestone alone.
I’m not sure Russia have committed their best assets yet, and are holding back in favour of sending in the ‘expendables’. All while they hone their TTPs on drone warfare. Merz and Rutte are getting intell that you and I are not privy to. Their message is very clear and the clock is ticking.
This war is costing Poo tin billions of rubies do you honestly think that he would hold back and not try to get this done? His economy is going down the drain and his war manufacturing is operating in the red borrowing money to meet targets with no way of repayment of the loans due to the interest rates etc!
Where do you think they are keeping all these tanks? NATO seems unable to find them with satellites.
Maybe under ground in some giant layer James Bind style 😀
Depends : if the us walk away from Europe or nato, i would not be that confident. After all, Ukraine has been able to resist thanks to us ressources mainly.
The only Author of the SDR who served General Sir Richard Barrons mentioned very clearly that there is no need for panic in the current or predicted threat environment.
Mark Rutte gutted the Netherlands defence budget starting in 2010, he disingenuously signed up for the NATO 2% target in 2014 and made no attempt to meat it. In 2021 when the UK was putting in large budget increases Mark Rutte was cutting the Netherlands defence budget.
And now I have to listen to him telling us that we should spend 5% of GDP, gut our economy, infrastructure, health care and poverty prevention all while having to pay higher taxes in a vane attempt to placate an American president who is clearly not playing with a full deck and changes his mind as often as he changes underwear.
And what a loss leader for NATO the worlds premier airforce to have a 400% increase in ground base air defence. Like that’s the way to win a war against Russia instead of buying more air planes.
Deterrence, at its core, rests on the three H’s –
Hard Power
Heightened Readiness
Hypothetical Retaliation
“I am the Game, and I am that damn good!”
Ukraine is now hitting hard and Russia’s logistics are not finite; in fact, some are dwindling as a result of Ukraine’s far-reaching drone and missile strikes. I would not be surprised by just how damaging their campaign will be if it continues at its current rate, as nowhere in western Russia appears to be safe anymore.
Rutte is just a blowhard. 14 years as Dutch PM during most of which his country spent less than 1.3% of GDP on defence and got rid of all their MBTs. Of course we need to be wary of Russia despite its failure to overcome Ukraine. Of course we need to have effective defence forces. But jumping to 5% of GDP is neither necessary nor achievable.
The build timescales of new warships are so long that nothing not already committed to would reach IOC before 2030. Expanding manpower numbers is not quick or easy either unless conscription is imposed.
Finally, most NATO members have large government debts which make the increase demanded unaffordable.
Making good the years of failure to meet the agreed 2% target should impose greater demands on some countries whilst others who have broadly met the target every year should have a lower increase agreed.
For the UK, finding money for 2.7 then 3% , will be very difficult. Health, schools, universities, local government, housing associations all jockeying for more funding. As to reducing the welfare budget, not going to happen as we have seen today.
And
” From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic,, an iron curtain has descended across Europe”
Now look at the overall strategic position.
The rearmament rate for Russia is far above the last estimate by RUSI at the beginning of the year. Which was a maximum construction rate of 300-400 T-90Ms per annum, 1250-1500 other armoured vehicles. 100 cruise missiles a month.
These figures are exponential more. So I’m guessing Russia are receiving the required micro processors, circuit boards and targeting sensors required from China in large numbers.
If these numbers are right and Russian production hasn’t just peaked but can potentially increase further. I’d think 3 years after the end of the Ukraine war maximum before Russia is set to attack a NATO country and achieve early localised overwhelming numerical superiority.
Long term the debate then is whether NATO can sustain destroying large numbers of Russian hardware with smart munitions and keep doing so faster than Russia can replace loses.
So our industrial base and resilience and persistence as an alliance is vital and yes that will require NATO upping it’s tanks, air defence systems, drones, air defence systems.
Rutte says a 400% increase….yet the SDSRs only new aircraft are some F35As for nuclear strike. No new F35Bs or Typhoons and only £1 billion for ground based air defence. Not enough when a single dragon fire is costing £250 million each.
In summary, the UK will have to go further, faster and harder to reconstitute our armed forces. Labour are certainly being battered by a perfect storm of pent up demand for investment after 15 years of virtually zero investment under the buggering Tories.
Or Mark Ruttes being economical with the truth.
I’m sure Russia “plans” 1500 tanks a year.
Like I plan to marry Sydney Sweeney 😀
Russia is unlikely to launch an all-out attack against NATO any time soon. The country is a mess. I agree that we should take the threat seriously but is a decrepit Putin really going to start that kind of war in 5 years?
In my view the 20 year timeframe is more concerning. Enough time for new aggressive leadership to take over, for Russia to seriously rearm with advanced weapons, and for a new generation of young men to come of age – who have grown up believing Europe to be their enemy.
The sad truth is that according to a lot of intel the Russians are happier than they have been in a long time.. they have more money in their pockets and the war has created jobs and wealth.