The UK Ministry of Defence reported that between 12 and 18 June, Russian long-range aviation shifted its cruise missile strikes to target Ukrainian air bases.
This change in strategy is “almost certainly borne out of frustration of continued Ukrainian air strike successes whilst also likely highlighting Russia’s concerns about the future employment of F-16 aircraft,” the update stated.
Throughout June 2024, the Russian air force maintained pressure on the frontline in Ukraine with tactical aviation, while one-way attack drones continued to strike deeper infrastructure and military-related targets.
The Ministry of Defence noted, “A series of coordinated Ukrainian attacks against targets in Crimea resulted in the destruction of critical elements of Russian SA-20 and SA-21 surface-to-air missile systems.”
These successful Ukrainian operations demonstrate Russia’s struggle to defend its assets in Crimea, despite substantial economic investment in air defence systems.
The Ministry added, “While it is likely that Russia can replace systems quickly, continued attrition will likely force Russia to draw on equipment from other areas, as it has done previously if it wishes to maintain its density of air defence coverage. Alternatively, Russia may be forced to accept a reduction in capability, placing its forces on Crimea at increased risk.”
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 20 June 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/rdsFLqcOYi #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/0orZRdk2lq
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 20, 2024
This has taken how long? Strategically the operations that Russia are conducting against Ukraine, do not seem to form a strategic plan. On a strategic focus, Russia is not targeting key military infrastructure or the means to maintain the logistical flow of materiel. They seem to be concentrating on making the lives of the ordinary civilian as harsh as possible by targeting power, water treatment, dock facilities and town/city apartment blocks. Whereas Ukraine is using long range drones to target both military bases and military manufacturing facilities. But also Russia’s means of making capital, by targeting its oil and gas… Read more »
Russia has strategic goals. Crawl forward on the current frontline, bleed Ukraine’s (aging) manpower, destroy Ukraine’s will and ability to fight (with strikes on all manner of infrastructure behind the lines) and extend the front as wide as possible to further strain Ukrainian manpower. … they wait and hope for Western resolve (critical for Ukraine) to break. The outcome of November in America looms big for all sides.
The problem seems to me to be the willingness of NATO to stand by & let them, while supplying some of UKRs needs & censoring Russia. Until we’re ready to actually step in to defeat Russian forces within UKR this will just go on, decimating & traumatising UKR & a generation of Russian cannon fodder. Russian & Chinese aggression counts on the West backing off rather than blocking them.
The US knows that any direct intervention by US forces (and US forces are the only ones who can credibly do anything), risks nuclear escalation. That is why Biden has ruled it out.
Which leave Putin free to do whatever he wants within UKR. Until someone puts new forces up against the invaders they’ve got effective carte blanch. Yes the risk is there, but it was there in the Korean war & Vietnam where US & allied forces went up against Soviet pilots. Turkey has downed Russian warplanes, Israel too, at least Egyptian AF, Russian piloted planes.
I think all we’re achieving is appeasing both Russia & China as they bully & attack their neighbours. Finger wagging & holding our friends coat just doesn’t stop them.
Oh, Putin has been trying but Ukraine has deployed what limited air defence it has to protect its military assets leaving its civilian infrastructure vulnerable.
Remember, if something doesn’t go ‘boom’, news tends to ignore it.
Can you imagine the fuss Russian media is going to make when they finally destroy an F-16. They’re going to make a field day out of it. Will it save their arms exports? … I doubt it.
Ukraine only needs to keep F16s on the ground in Ukraine when a strike is being organised. Aircraft not immediately required can be kept at airfields over the border in Poland. Let Russia strike them if they dare.