Russian invasion has ‘largely stalled on all fronts’

Been reading about the views of some Russians in a small town where they were burying a commander of a mechanised division and the more I listen to indoctrinated Russians continue to peddle the load of BS that the fighting is justified because NATO “wants to place nukes in Ukraine”, the more I hope the Ukranians give Russian forces a bloody good hiding. I seriously question if these people are even capable of independent thought and opinion.

I was watching some YouTube videos that raise some interesting questions. The short of it is most of the info we have about russian progress is from Ukrainian tweets and social media, which are unlikely to post about Russia successes. Additionally a lot of pro Russian media sources have been closed down in the west. Meaning we don’t really have a accurate picture of progress or lack there off.

It reminded me of gulf war 1. at the time I was switching between news channels, and you had CNN reporting of US forces destroying Iraq forces, very much flag flying reporting, and then you had BBC/ABC (Australian version as I was there at the time) reporting about the alliance making slower progres than expected and meeting some resistance. You then had other broadcasters talking about civilian casualties. It’s only decades later that we know that BBC/abc was more accurate.

All I can really say is I hope the broadcasted picture is worse than it is, and Ukraine is resisting, without massive civilian casualties.

Anyone catch anything of Putin’s latest rambling speech? Truly terrifying stuff and reminiscent of certain far right leaders of old. He’s talking about purging the “fifth column” of people who are supposedly anti Russian, basically anyone who has the courage to voice their disapproval of the war and his regime. His state of mind is a huge concern.

This is most probably why they have turned to using these.

I hope the monies seized from Russian oligarchs will help to pay for the damage caused to Ukraine and help rebuild it once the war is over.

“Evidence is emerging from the conflict in Ukraine appearing to show that Russian forces are utilizing guided rockets – the 9M544 and 9M549 – with video and photographs of the remains of these types appearing across social media.

The 9M544 and 9M549 are understood to be the latest guided rockets fired from Russia’s Tornado-S system. According to official information, these have a range of 120 km and a circular error probable (CEP) of 5–10 m.

Images of rocket fragments with the guidance and control unit code 9B706 have appeared in areas where the 9K515 Tornado-S multiple rocket launch (MRL) system has been active.”

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/weapons-headlines/latest/ukraine-conflict-russian-forces-employ-guided-rockets

90% of Russians get their entire news from either totally government controlled TV or TV controlled by oligarchs beholden to Putin. Only a small proportion have internet and access to western media when it’s not being blocked. They tend to be the younger generation. Evidently Putin’s strongest support base is women over the age of 50.
But at some point the number of casualties will start to become a talking point as sons etc die. Eventually someone wants to know what happened to a son, brother, father etc.
Dont know about everyone else but I am getting fed up watching civilian Ukrainians dying while we sit on our hands worrying that Putin has nuclear weapons when we have exactly the same and it doesn’t impact on him. I still think Putin going nuclear is a very real threat and just maybe if we let the Russian senior command know we will retaliate in kind they might just eliminate the problem at its source.

Fear controls Russia. Lots of good folks there but with Tyrants like Putin the state is bound to fail and it is. Not only hurting outside the borders but destroying the state itself, surly someone with a back bone can see that and stand up for all concerned and put Putin down. ONLY WAY is to rid the World of him and his kind. Human Race civilised, not by a long long way………….

Russia is a nation of chavs and trailer trash and much the same as MAGA in the USA or the BNP in the UK no amount of truth from independent media will open their eyes. The only difference is in the UK or the USA such people are 20% of the population and in Russia they are 80%. Such people are generally so hate filled and badly educated that nothing short of total military failure with their own children lying dead at their feet will change their minds on anything aka Germany and Japan 1945. Putin will be around until he dies. Most Russians support this war and will continue to do so and will always hate NATO and Europe. It’s simple politics of envy and xenophobia. Main thing we can do is continue to accelerate Russians complete economic collapse and make sure they have no access to military industrial resources to replace their losses.

As the invasion stalls, Russian troops are beginning to take it out on Ukranian civilians with multiple reported cases in the media of unprovoked killings. We need to give the Ukrainians the ability to protect themselves from air attack, and to be ready to sanction Chinese businesses if China provides support to Putin.

It seems now Russia is resorting to theft….why am I not surprised. They have seized many aircraft ( civvy) leased by Western companies to Russian companies effectively nationalising them.

Surely, rather than a “No-Fly” Zone, the west should be helping Ukraine obtain higher altitude/longer-range SAM systems that they are familiar with or can be quickly trained on. e.g. S-400s or something so that they can impose their own Zone. I thought there was talk of doing that? Start off in the far West of Ukraine to protect civilians and grow it across to the East ASAP – protected with nests of Stingers/Starstreak whatever. There seems to be an IFF issue identifying who is who, but the lower-level Ukranian drones should get through to do the business, so just concentrate on SAMs to keep the Russian air force out of the equation.

This is pleasantly surprising. Unlike some I never expected the Russians to be able to overwhelm Ukraine in a week, but with Mariupol mostly in their hands and a land bridge between the eastern and southern fronts, I did think they would be able to advance rapidly to the Dnieper as the Ukrainians withdrew under threat of encirclement. Probably, that was the the Russian plan, since their best equipment and personnel were in the south and the northern attack on Kyiv with second rate troops appears to have been a diversion.

So hearing that the invasion has fully stalled now is reassuring news. It’s been 3 weeks now, so I suppose this is the point significant numbers of Ukrainian reservists have been mobilised and are reaching the lines. That might be what’s tipping the balance. Just a hypothesis

As Steve (above) comments, we are seeing one side only of the conflict. The fact is that Russia has achieved some of its targets but the tempo dropped off soon after these early successes. However, they are still well inside Ukraine and, evidently, lethal. A war of attrition is replacing blitzkrieg. The issue now it seems to me is who can last longest. That is rash, spiteful and deluded adventure has failed in its strategic goals – the reverse is true – is now obvious. It is what comes next. Ignoring Russia and China for the moment, the west has to comprehend that is is part of the world’s system not any longer the dominant one. The ‘1945’ or later ‘1989’ moment has come and gone. We need a governing class that is up to the task ahead and the first issue is strengthening the defences, external and internal, of the open and plural societies – now a clear minority in this century.

UK deploying a Sky Sabre battery to the Poland/Ukraine border according to BBC News.

I’d have thought some pincer from Belarus down the Polish Border cutting off re-resupply should have happened putting pressure on Slovakia and Hungary to step up.

With the electrified railway line from Humenne flowing into the Ukraine, can that OHLE not be used to supply power from Europe to Ukrainian settlements?

Does anyone know what is the status of the Russian Black Sea amphibious group ? Those troops and their equipment have been embarked on those ships for a long time now, I would expect that there has been some degradation in their combat effectiveness being cooped up for so long.

Ukraine say that 12,000+ Russians have been killed. The US say 7000+. Taking the US figure and adding on the wounded at the normal military ratio of 3 wounded for every 1 killed tells us that Russia has suffered 28,000 casualties thus far; that is more than 1000 casualties a day. How long will Russia put up with this attrition rate?

Ukraine has lost about 2000 troops killed, so that’s about 8000 total (military) casualties but unlike Russia their war is a popular defence of the homeland. They have conscripted well over a million men since the war began so they can replace their casualties. Russia, on the other hand, can only replace casualties by conscription (will the April intake turn up at the training depots?), calling out reserves (how many turn up?) or bringing thugs in from Syria.

Interesting read:
A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs
VOZNESENSK, Ukraine—A Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder, Voznesensk’s funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, spent this Tuesday driving through fields and forests, picking up dead Russian soldiers and taking them to a freezer railway car piled with Russian bodies—the casualties of one of the most comprehensive routs President Vladimir Putin’s forces have suffered since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.
Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armour, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.

The Ukrainian defenders’ performance against a much-better-armed enemy in an overwhelmingly Russian-speaking region was successful in part because of widespread popular support for the Ukrainian cause—one reason the Russian invasion across the country has failed to achieve its principal goals so far. Ukraine on Wednesday said it was launching a counteroffensive on several fronts.
“Everyone is united against the common enemy,” said Voznesensk’s 32-year-old mayor, Yevheni Velichko, a former real-estate developer turned wartime commander, who, like other local officials, moves around with a gun. “We are defending our own land. We are at home.”

The Russian military says its Ukraine offensive is developing successfully and according to plan. Moscow hasn’t released updated casualty figures since acknowledging on March 2 the death of 498 troops, before the Voznesensk battle.

Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 vehicles—tanks, armoured personnel carriers, multiple-rocket launchers, trucks—as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armour were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday.

Russian forces retreated more than 40 miles to the southeast, where other Ukrainian units have continued pounding them. Some dispersed in nearby forests, where local officials said 10 soldiers have been captured.

“We didn’t have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery,” said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident. “The Russians didn’t expect us to be so strong. It was a surprise for them. If they had taken Voznesensk, they would have cut off the whole south of Ukraine.”

Ukrainian officers estimated that some 100 Russian troops died in Voznesensk, including those whose bodies were taken by retreating Russian troops or burned inside carbonized vehicles. As of Tuesday, 11 dead Russian soldiers were in the railway car turned morgue, with search parties looking for other bodies in nearby forests. Villagers buried some others.
“Sometimes, I wish I could put these bodies on a plane and drop them all onto Moscow, so they realize what is happening here,” said Mr. Sokurenko, the funeral director, as he put Tuesday’s fifth Russian cadaver on blue-plastic sheeting inside his van marked “Cargo 200”—Soviet military slang for killed in action. A Ukrainian military explosives specialist accompanied him, because some bodies had been booby trapped.

About 10 Ukrainian civilians died in Voznesensk during the combat and two more after hitting a land mine afterward, local officials said. Ukraine doesn’t disclose its military losses. There were fatalities, mostly among the Territorial Defense volunteer forces, local residents said.

The Russian operation to seize Voznesensk, 20 miles from the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant, was ambitious and well-equipped. It began after Russian forces fanned out of the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow severed from Ukraine and annexed in 2014, and thrust northward to seize the regional capital of Kherson on March 1. They pushed to the edge of Mykolaiv, the last major city before Odessa, Ukraine’s main port.

About 55 miles north of Mykolaiv, Voznesensk offered an alternative bridge over the Southern Bug river and access to the main highway linking Odessa with the rest of Ukraine. Russian forces raced toward the town at the same time as they made a successful push northeast to seize the city of Enerhodar, where another major Ukrainian nuclear power plant is located. Voznesensk’s fall would have made defending the nuclear plant to the north of here nearly impossible, military officials said.
https://i.postimg.cc/5NLTz27c/Untitled-1.jpg
Mayor Velichko worked with local businessmen to dig up the shores of the Mertvovod river that cuts through town so armoured personnel vehicles couldn’t ford it. He got other businessmen who owned a quarry and a construction company to block off most streets to channel the Russian column into areas that would be easier to hit with artillery.

Ahead of the Russian advance, military engineers blew up the bridge over the Mertvovod and a railroad bridge on the town’s edge. Waiting for the Russians in and around Voznesensk were Ukrainian regular army troops and members of the Territorial Defence force, which Ukraine established in January, recruiting and arming volunteers to help protect local communities. Local witnesses, officials and Ukrainian combat participants recounted what happened next.
Outside Rakove, Volodymyr Kichuk, a guard at a walnut plantation, woke to find five Russian airborne troops in his hut. They took his phone and forced him to lie on the ground, said his wife, Hanna. “Once they realized there was nothing to steal, they told him: You can get up after we leave,” she said. By day’s end, the couple were gone from the village.

Russian soldiers took over villagers’ homes in Rakove and created a sniper position on a roof. They looked for sacks to fill with soil for fortifications, burned hay to create a smoke screen and demanded food.

A local woman who agreed to cook for the Russians is now under investigation, said Mr. Dombrovsky. “A traitor—she did it for money,” he said. “I don’t think the village will forgive her and let her live here.”

Downhill from Rakove, Russian forces set up base at a gas station at Voznesensk’s entrance. A Russian BTR infantry fighting vehicle drove up to the blown-up bridge over the Mertvovod, opening fire on the Territorial Defense base to the left. Five tanks, supported by a BTR, drove to a wheat field overlooking Voznesensk.

A group of Territorial Defence volunteers armed with Kalashnikovs was hiding in a building at that field’s edge. They didn’t have much of a chance against the BTR’s large-calibre machine gun, said Mykola Rudenko, one of the city’s Territorial Defence officers; some were killed, and others escaped. Russian troops in two Ural trucks were preparing to assemble and set up 120mm mortars on the wheat field, but they got only as far as unloading the ammunition before Ukrainian shelling began.

Missile strikes
The Russian assault began with missile strikes and shelling that hit central Voznesensk, destroying the municipal swimming pool and damaging high-rises. Helicopters dropped Russian air-assault troops in a forested ridge southwest of Voznesensk, as an armoured column drove from the southeast. Mr. Velichko said a local collaborator with the Russians, a woman driving a Hyundai SUV, showed the Russian column a way through back roads.

Ukrainian officers estimate that some 400 Russian troops took part in the attack. The number would have been bigger if these forces—mostly from the 126th naval infantry brigade based in Perevalnoye, Crimea, according to seized documents—hadn’t come under heavy shelling along the way.

Natalia Horchuk, a 25-year-old mother of three, said Russian soldiers appeared in her garden in the village of Rakove in the Voznesensk municipality early March 2. They told her and neighbours to leave for their safety, and parked four tanks and infantry fighting vehicles between the houses. “Do you have anywhere to go?” she recalled them asking. “This place will be hit.”

“We can hide in the cellar,” she replied.

“The cellar won’t help you,” they told her. Hiding valuables, she and her family fled, as did most neighbours.

Phoning in coordinates
As darkness fell March 2, Mr. Rudenko, who owns a company transporting gravel and sand, took cover in a grove on the wheat field’s edge under pouring rain. The Russian tanks there would fire into Voznesensk and immediately drive a few hundred yards away to escape return fire, he said.

Mr. Rudenko was on the phone with a Ukrainian artillery unit. Sending coordinates via the Viber social-messaging app, he directed artillery fire at the Russians. So did other local Territorial Defense volunteers around the city. “Everyone helped,” he said. “Everyone shared the information.”

Ukrainian shelling blew craters in the field, and some Russian vehicles sustained direct hits. Other Ukrainian regular troops and Territorial Defense forces moved toward Russian positions on foot, hitting vehicles with U.S.-supplied Javelin missiles. As Russian armor caught fire—including three of the five tanks in the wheat field—soldiers abandoned functioning vehicles and escaped on foot or sped off in the BTRs that still had fuel. They left crates of ammunition.

Mr. Rudenko picked up a Russian conscript days later, he said, who served as an assistant artillery specialist at a Grad multiple-rocket launcher that attacked Voznesensk from a forest. The 18-year-old conscript, originally from eastern Ukraine and a Crimea resident since 2014, suffered a concussion after a Ukrainian shell hit near him. He woke the next morning, left his weapon and wandered into a village, Mr. Rudenko said. There, a woman took him into her home and called the village head, who informed Territorial Defense. “He’s still in shock about what happened to him,” Mr. Rudenko said.

Mr. Dombrovsky, the reconnaissance-unit commander, said he captured several soldiers in their early 20s and a 31-year-old senior lieutenant from the Russian military intelligence. The lieutenant, he said, had forced a private to swap uniforms but was discovered because of the age discrepancy—and because Ukrainian forces found Russian personnel files in the column’s command vehicle.

“The Russians had orders to come in, seize, and await further instructions,” Mr. Dombrovsky said. “But they had no orders for what to do if they are defeated. That, they didn’t plan for.”

Russian troops had detained a local man on March 2 after they found him to have binoculars, villagers said. “They had put him in a cellar and told him they will execute him in the morning, for correcting artillery fire,” Mr. Dombrovsky said, adding that the detainee wasn’t a spotter. “But in the morning they didn’t have time to execute him. They were too busy fleeing.”

The Russians retreat
As the Russian forces retreated on March 3, they shelled the downhill part of Rakove. A direct hit pierced the roof of the local clinic, where Mr. Dombrovsky’s mother, Raisa, worked as a nurse. “We’ve just built a new roof,” she sighed, showing the gaping hole. “But it doesn’t matter. The main thing is that we have kicked them out, and survived.”

When villagers returned to Rakove on March 4, they found their homes ransacked. “Blankets, cutlery, all gone. Lard, milk, cheese, also gone,” said Ms. Horchuk. “They didn’t take the potatoes because they didn’t have time to cook.”This week, village homes still bore traces of Russian soldiers.
Cupboards and closets were still flung open from looting, and Russian military rations and half-eaten jars of pickles and preserves littered floors.

The Ukrainian army’s 80th brigade was towing away the last remaining Russian BTRs with “Z” painted on their sides, the identification markers that in Russia have become the symbol of the invasion. About 15 Russian tanks and other vehicles were in working or salvageable condition, said Mr. Dombrovsky. “We are ready to hit the Russians with their own weapons,” he said. Others, mostly burned-out wrecks, were removed from streets because they scared civilians and contained ordnance, the mayor said.
Electricity, disrupted during combat, has returned in Voznesensk, as have internet, gas and water services. ATMs have been restocked with cash, supermarkets with food.

The only explosions are from bomb squads occasionally disposing ordnance. Mr. Velichko, the mayor, fielded citizen phone calls Tuesday, telling one he would take care of a possibly rabid dog and assuring another that her utilities wouldn’t be cut in wartime even if she was late in paying. He argued with an army commander because Ukrainian soldiers had siphoned fuel from the gas station.

Spartak Hukasian, head of the Voznesensk district council, said the city—no longer near front lines—was starting to get used to relatively peaceful life again. “He who laughs last laughs best,” he said. “We haven’t had a chance to laugh until now.”

I’m coming to the conclusion that we have been too soft on Russia. When he gave the ‘historical consequences’ threat, we should have told him that if was foolish enough to continue we would have made his army cease to exist, then his airforce, then his navy. He won’t stop and China is watching. We’ll pay for this weakness eventually.

Morning threaders ,Are there grounds for Mr Putin too be Sectioned into a state psych hospital, he held a phone briefing with the Turkish ,and laid out Demands F ing Demands he’s forces are getting a good kicking all he is capable of doing to the Ukraine is too destroy buildings Non military whilst his senior Officers get dealt with Ukrainian efficiently And yet he’s making Demands come on Mr Putin you really have flown over the Cuckoo’s Nest Medication time

So Putin has to go to the Chinese to ask for weapons to carry on his madness!
Really telling on their losses so far!
IF the Chinese do supply him then that leaves the door open for the west to supply Ukraine with anything they want, tanks ,aircraft the lot.

Just watched puffer Putin at his rally too celebrate 8 years of what we would call occupation of the Crimea, Shame it was in colour could of been a re run of those Nuremburg Rallies all that was missing was a moustache oh and armband

Afternoon Threaders, Interesting Story coming from the Daily Mail ,Regarding Mobile Phones And our Boys in the Hush hush Service_ squadron How GRU operatives Using Scanning devices around the Bases in question these numbers are captured and put onto a database in Russia when a phone is switched on and links up with its Network from this the GRU have the operators Network Nameand Number , if this is correct I just hope if Our Boys are in the Ukraine they no longer have their phones in Country not even in the Barracks Scarie if true

I know some people on this Thread may disagree ,So here I go ,Our Country has always been a safe Haven for Refugees fleeing fighting legitimately, the foreign Secretary has made a point of security checks on Ukrainian Refugees wishing too come to the UK as not all Persons seeking this status are who they claim too be I say good for her Britians security is Paramount we have too be cautious we only have too get it wrong once and we could have another Salisbury on our hands .So sorry Leftwing hugging do-gooder if you disagree I’ve got plenty of Lemons for you too suck on