Russian media has issued threats against Type 45 Destroyer HMS Diamond.
This follows the recent attack on Russia’s Novocherkassk large landing ship in Crimea, for which Russia holds the UK responsible.
Russian analysts are of the opinion that the United Kingdom played a pivotal role in the destruction of the Russian warship Novocherkassk in Crimea. It is believed that Ukraine, supported by British missiles, satellite reconnaissance, and target guidance, executed the strike.
Amidst this furore, HMS Diamond is currently stationed in the Red Sea as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, shielding international shipping from missile attacks by Houthi rebels.
In the article from Pravda.ru, Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik suggested an aggressive strategy, proposing that Russia could target HMS Diamond either directly or indirectly through proxies like the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
He even mentioned the possibility of using advanced weaponry such as MiG-31s or Tu-22M2/TU-22M2M aircraft armed with Kinzhal missiles, although this can’t be a serious remark given it would likely result in the Russian armed forces no longer existing in combat-capable state due to the response invited by striking a British warship directly
Pravda.ru is a Russian news website that is often regarded as state-aligned media, known for its perspective that supports the Russian government’s views. This website is distinct from the original “Pravda” newspaper, which was the official publication of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and ceased operation in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Established in the early 2000s, Pravda.ru aligns closely with the Russian government.
£2m is a very affordable price to live rent free in Russia’s head
Does seem Storm Shadow has burnt itself into the awareness of Russian psyche. Which is excellent. HMG should follow up by ordering a thousand more.
That would make sense. Let’s see.
It also wouldn’t take much to use newer low-observable materials, tweak the airframe a bit to further lower RCS based on feedback from the Ukrainians. The Storm Shadow/SCALP the UK and France use today were ordered more than 10-years ago. I’m sure there will have been some development since then. And then integrate them on the F-35 as well…although that would require forward thinking and a pro-active mindset in Whitehall.
That then turns into a development program rather than a manufacturing exercise.
As is stated below there was/is an upgrade program to replace obsolescent parts, increase range and other good things.
The ones that were gifted were the very early ones that were very difficult to upgrade.
StormShadow is being upgraded under the SPEAR 4 project. Longer range. More survivable. Can be re-targeted In flight. And can loiter in a kill box. StormShadow will then be replaced with FC/ASW around 2030.
That’s good to hear, but are building new ones or just upgrading existing ones? Ordering another batch or three wouldn’t be bad idea at this point
I don’t know. But we have over 900 available. And they are pretty expensive
Doubt we have anywhere near 900 now since they have been used extensively over the last 20 years.
I think 900 was the original order, considering we’ve used a number and given the Ukrainians a number would think that the total available is somewhat smaller today.
I believe they were working on a serious upgrade to it before it proved so effective in Ukraine.
Bigger warhead, improved accuracy, longer range , stealth and electronic warfare.
The Storm Shadow is a 30 year old design so unlikely that the manufacturer has the capability to make more. I suspect that we were willing to provide them partly because their replacement is already under development.
There’s been a consistent restraint on providing our latest designs when they risk providing intellectual property or intelligence to the enemy. Thus further delays on MBTs with the latest composite armour for example. Old reaction armour is all that’s available.
“although this can’t be a serious remark given it would likely result in the Russian armed forces no longer existing in combat-capable state due to the response invited by striking a British warship directly”
Love that, George!
Those Kinzhal missiles have crap precision. They could fire dozens off and still miss.
Accuracy measured within a few miles. Not convinced they could target a moving warship, firing back with the world’s best air defence weapons system with ECM, chaff, flares etc bring put up.
unfortunately the Houthi have pretty much shown that the anti shipping guidance package on the Qiam ballistic missile does work…Iran has a lot of Qiams to give away to proxies. Unfortunately as most of these Ballistic missiles are essentially shared tec between, Iran, china, Russia and North Korea so it does mean that if Iran can make a working anti ship ballistic missile from the Qiam ( which is a decade old modification of the scud line, but with modern form aka no fins and thrust vector controls) then Russia, North Korea and especially china can…it means the just released Chinese YJ-21 is a very very big problem for western fleet air defence..
What we are seeing is that a future Chinese axis in any war with the west will have very significant reach.
remember at present the RN has zero defence against anti shipping ballistic missiles…
Also remember there are other proxies available who have ballistic missiles and would happy lob them at western ships..including one parked in the Med.
I would say it has become an immediate need for T45 to be equipped with Aster Block1 NT so it has the ability to defend RN task groups against the now realised threat of anti ship ballistic missiles…this was a need identified a decade ago that our government did nothing about. To be honest it’s shite.
one final point of joy is that Iran has shown a capability to create ballistic missile silos that are very very difficult to identify/find…western intelligence thinks there is no way Iran did this on its own..as it’s a very very clever and complex set of engineering…so the thought is china did it…which means china probably has more ICBM and IRBM silos than the obvious 1500 it has built….it also means we don’t know where Iran has stashed all its Ballistic missiles….
The key take home is this…China on its own can drag the US into a war of attrition that china thinks it would win ( due to political and public will to suffer more hurt than the US).Add in an axis of Russia, Iran, North Korea, all the proxy forces in the levant and Africa and you have a world war the west is not prepared for in any domain that is important in winning.
China has told us it’s going to go to war within the next 4-5 years..it’s spending a fortune ( literally spaffing many hundreds of billions in both expenditure and lost growth) preparing its economy, population, industrial base and armed forces for this..we have to start taking these threats seriously and not just have the attitude we can take them…Russia, Iran, China and North Korea can create a storm that could and probably would end western hegemony.
I recall there’s a project to upgrade the Aster missle to offer Ballistic missile defence not sure where that project is at, it commenced in 2022 I beleive but I think the original time frame was 2026 for first hull to recieve updated missiles
The T45 was able to track BM in execises and performed beyond expecations, as the updates to Aster include software and electronics and a new warhead, so I wonder if Aster could under some conditions intercept a BM as is just with a lower probability of kill.
Hi expat, I don’t believe it can, It would have been published if it could, MBDA and all the navy’s that us Aster 30 block 0 ( what the RN has) are pretty clear it cannot engage Even short range BMs..it needs the block 1 upgrade to do that, which is a new seeker head and warhead designed intercepting short range BMs..there is no way they would hid that capability if it was there as it just encourages nutters to use BMs.
What present version are the French using, because I have long read comments in defence publications that they do have some capability to take out short to perhaps even medium range ballistic missiles though that latter might have been referring to future NT versions. Was used years ago as evidence Britain should upgrade its Asters, Is this merely hype?
Hi the French use block 1 in its land based systems but not sea based..in jan 2023 they order block 1 and block 1 NT for their fleet as well. The RN has ordered block 1 only.
block 1 was first tested and intercepted a BM ( short range) in 2010.
work on the block 1 NT started in 2016, with a firm development contract from France and Italy in 2017..final production contract was Jan 2023 with France and Italy…we really should be joining that contract as well to be honest..
we could but block 1 on T45 reasonably quickly, NT is a few years away.
There are ballistic missiles and then there are ballistic missiles. The kind of very short range anti-ship ballistic missiles being fired by the Houthis can even be taken out with a Block 0 Aster 15, as we have recently seen. Long-distance ones need more than the post-upgrade Aster 30 Bk1 can handle. However they will be able to tackle short range ballistic missiles coming from less than 600km.
We are also subscribed (whatever that means) to the following upgrade, which will be Aster 30 Bk1 NT and that will have ABM capability up to medium range missile (1000 mile class). It will be the eventual Aster 30 Bk2 BMD that will be able to take out longer range (up to 2000 mile class) ballistic missiles.
Aster 30 can intercept ballistic missiles and Sampson can easily track them.
Question is very much which anti ship ballistic missile is being used until the NT comes along. Aster 30 can hit SRBM’s which are most of the ASM ballistic missiles.
Hi Jim, not the RN verson. the block 0 does not have the seeker head or warhead required to engage a Mach-6-8 Speed short range ballistic missile in its terminal phase. Block 1 upgrades its seeker head and warhead to manage short range ballistic missiles, but not medium range that will require the block 1 NT upgrade. At present the RN uses aster 30 block 0 and does not have ABM capacity.
As I recall, UK signed a contract to upgrade to Aster 30 block 1, but this was only in late 2022, so I’d assume its not anywhere near ready yet.
block 1 is a pretty old missile now..it’s first success engagement was in 2010, so it could be expedited.
On China I agree, we need to seriously look at our manufacturing base. In paticular net zero policies are playing right into China’s hands as we will have very limited capabilites to retool to manufacture military equipment. There is no way a battery plant can be retooled to manaufacture diesel ICE engines or components for instance. China is building 1200 coal plants to ensure it can keep manufacturing even when the sun doesn’t shine or wind doesn’t blow. Whilst we are placing more intermittent energy infrastructure in harder to defend places.
It doesn’t mean we abandon net zero but our completely blinkered apporach is not helping our security.
I imagine Xi is rubbing his hands in glee watching a number of useful idiots in the UK doing his work for him. This may be a bit tin foil hat but its not beyond possibility he has army social media users and sponsors dedicated to push certain net zero policies over others to create a narative and push us into developing single use tech rather than dual use civilain and miltary tech.
Also don’t forget our utter inability to move away from Neoliberalism and the belief the market is always right..if china is willing to sell us stuff cheaper..we happily drop our own industries and buy cheap..even though we are buying it from an enemy using a mercantilist strategy against us as part of its sub kinetic war against the west…neoliberalism and market driven dogma works great between western democracies, who all play by the rules…not with an enemy state with a plan to subvert our industrial capabilities.
The threat from CCP suggests that our economy must be instrumented to value sovereign capability so that the narrow business perspective will reach the right conclusions regardless of that narrow perspective.
Finding a rationale less explicit to that intent would be key to its acceptance.
I feel an Industrial Strategy coming on…
Sadly it was the Democrats in the US that sanctioned hints rise and access to western markets. They thought it would bring about change in China’s political system but all they have done is use it against us. Ironically Trump was the one who rolled back this in the US blocking many Chinese products but not nearly enough. The more socialist EU has been much slower to act being more reliant on the Chinese markets, France for instance is very reliant on China to support it luxury brands.
There’s nothing wrong with free markets if they are truely free but China state back businesses should not be considered part of it.
Indeed, I think it was appropriate to try and bring china in, we don’t want to create enemies. But I think the big problem was hubris…as one expert stated while China industrialised the west de industrialised…china now hold 50% of the worlds ship building capacity the US has 1%….just from that it’s clear which nation will win a protracted navel conflict.
As this guy pointed out this weakness has been decades in the making and there is now no meaningful way to make up the deficit in the next five years, which is the maximum time of risk….in any war the U.S. will run out of ships and munitions before china, that’s a pretty simple and fact that is now acknowledged by most experts in the field.
Its also now acknowledged that any war will be a bloodbath that the U.S. and the west has no will to fight.
I do agree free markets are important, but that can only really happen for elements of you industry that are not strategically important to you as a nation, if an industry is required for your self protection you had better ensure you keep the ability…one thing we seem to have forgotten is your friend today is your enemy tomorrow and if you cannot make the things to defend yourself against your enemies you are roundly buggered…the West ended up with this profoundly wrong headed belief called the “end of history” in which the west had won and everyone would become the west…infact the sad irony is that the blindness caused by the whole “end of history” and “victory of neoliberalism” may infact be the downfall of the west…
i consider Trump a complete idiot with no understanding of geopolitics or geostratey, but I agree he did get one thing right, a nation needs a level of self sufficiency in its industrial capabilities…and outsourcing industrial capacity has profoundly weakened the west….
Its odd really as the rise of both the British empire and the U.S. then taking over hegemony was based on industrial capacity…the defeat of the empire of the third Reich and imperial japan was based around overwhelming industrial capacity….the victory of the west in the Cold War was again based on the greater industrial and tec might of the west….we then decided industrial capacity was not needed out sourced it to china and wondered why China is able to challenge the west for primacy.
We can have free markets in defence in 2 ways, firstly maintain more than one supplier. Ship building has really turned a corner since we introduced a compettive element. Secondly build products or platforms that we can export not bespoke UK weapons. Its reality is only competitve industries that will be agile emough to expand capactiy, state run industries historically don’t do so well they tend to look for all the reason why something can’t be done rather than why it can. Too much top down planning means things just take too long.
What we need to have is capabilty to retool, Britain between the wars got this right, we had a economic policies that ecouraged growth and factories were used to expanding, the US on the other hand had put in price controls and over regulated so had to do a serious u-turn to up capacity when it entered the war.
I disagree China just overtook Japan in car exports mainly on the back of electric cars, going back to yesterdays industrial policies won’t help us indeed we declined when we had a large steel and coal industries and had the 5th biggest car producer so that won’t head anything off. Yes we must retain what we have for as long as it takes to make them redundant but that World of the uk as major industrial power has gone and China and India own much of what we have. We need to invest big time into new and generally greener (even if some won’t be for some years) industries. And it’s much more difficult to target wind turbines or wave generators than power stations et al. If this Country has the will we could do so much more, we have large deposits of Lithium if we do want to mine but fact is battery technology will gradually move away from that to silicon, aluminium and solid state batteries some of which are coming to market later this year. We produce some of the most advanced electric motors in the World due to our advanced research activities, and though sadly this is still woefully under utilised we still produce World leaders like Arm and DeepMind and could do so much more. That’s where need to be headed not back to an undefined future, where we in our imaginations dig up tons and tons of coal to reignite that industry would be horrendously expensive at scale if it were feasible and workers could be found. Gas from the North Sea is now a fraction of what we use so where do we get that from, and oil even if we increase it is sold on the World markets we have no control over and none of it can be processed for petrol I believe so only a temporary future there whatever we do.
No future technologies are vital to us. I don’t know when electric options will be viable for military vehicles not with lithium I suspect but I suspect the time scale when they will isn’t going to be much different to attempting to upscale diesel activities to a war footing based on the fact few wish to invest in it at all currently. Finally if we want to retain steel production which we do need I believe then there is still much need to do so futuristically. I read last year about another British originated solution that claimed (indeed has demonstrated on a small scale) to be able to radically update our furnaces to be far greener and as a side effect produce hydrogen as a sellable fuel if we bother to invest in that greener alternative. And that’s the point you have to move forward on a broad front so one aspect feeds off of another but as Alan Bond said Britain is damned good at proving we can do something but thereafter better still at closing down the funding thereafter using Black Knight as his reference point. After all we are the only Country to develop a satellite launch system and then decide to give it up even if we did get a small amount by selling off some of the tech to the US as usual.
The decline in the UK is as a result, as you are saying, due to poor decision making at the highest levels of Government and industry/finance. An obsession with net zero is merely the icing on the cake. Take Spain; they are building up their old style industry and keeping everything in nation as much as they can. We go out to tender with everything like we are stupid. Makes me jealous when I see ARM and everything else being sold off to bolywood! You know the USA or India. We really are rather pathetic.
You completely misunderstood my comment. I didn’t say we should go back to coal or stop progressing to net zero.
I’m saying our obession and regulation of a few technologies is damaging us and therefore our security.
China’s move to EV was to cut local emmisions in cities as they had huge smog problems, so they just use coal power stations outside the cities so they just shft where they produce carbon, nothing green about that. And as Jonathan point out that part of China’s strategy to reduce manufacturing in the West by offering cheap products. And of course banning competing tecnologies is playing right into their hands.
JCB ICE hydrogen engine is cutting edge, certainly no throw back and such an engine manufacturing plant would be far easy to retrool to produce a engine to power heavy miltary vehicle military that could run on availble fuels. The one thing an ICE configuaration is flexible, its core technology can use synthetic fuel, gas, deisel, petrol, veg oil, alchole, ammonia, hydrogen. Some of which can be made using electricity. The same goes for gas turbines btw
Offshore wind has been touted as secure energy which it isn’t, it extremely vunerable and interfers with radar, Japan has banned wind farms in some areas for this very reason. Wind is secure in as much as we don’t need to procure it from anyone else thats about it. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have wind farms but it can’t be such a large part of the mix.
Solid state batteries are coming but realistically it will take a decade for them to be at the same volume and price bracket as lithium. But still for heavy equipement even if you get the same power density as diesel the problem is electricity isn’t potatable unless stored in a battery so how do you rechage a MBT on the front line? You either have to have a generation source near by, erecting a 50ft wind turbine or 30m squaer solar array next to you dug in and concealed MBT isn’t an option. Perhaps huge battery truck that stop off and rechage the tanks? You can see it not just electrification but the logisitcs of electrity don’t really work very well outside of an establish infrastructure thats not under attack, you need a portable fuel source, even better if that can be transported in a low tech container, like a big container on the back of truck :). So its not about upscalling electric motor and battery production its not the right source of energy, not for the foreseable future anyway.
The reality is for the UK is the green energy boat has sailed 20 years ago, China has a 10 year lead on EVs, even Musk admitts Tesla may not be top 10 Global EV maker in the years ahead. Other countries have more advanced solar and wind industries. Our export figures show we export very little of these technologies. We’d be far better focussing on technologies like modular reactors for instance somethoing where we still have a lead on and would not be easy to shift production elsewhere.
Sadly the green arguement is framed in a binary fashion without any consdieration to induistries it impacts, the freedoms it erodes and the physical security of the country.
And increasingly we have a US outlook that seems with delusion that Russia can be ignored to concentrate on China. As you say this is becoming a united front of evil that could make even Hitler seem like an amateur. The Ukranian invasion was all about breaking the trans Atlantic front and effectively taking Europe into its sphere directly or indirectly by imposed threat, fear and blackmail. If that were achieved any US/China threatened conflict would be essentially meaningless the process and balance of World hegemony would be on an inevitable road to that new World Order run by those countries with many others throughout the World jumping on board. The blindness of many politicians is less understandable than the essentially worse informed and ignorant masses.
Unfortunately you are correct, we have shifted to a bipolar geopolitical world with an enemy that is clearly planning to destroy western hegemony…but the west will not see..anything that impacts on growth, wealth and the bottom line is being ignored. The reality is the new Chinese axis has far greater ability than the USSR to fight the west in every possible domain of war…political,kinetic militarily, economically, industrial capacity, access to markets, information technology, cyber.global reach etc…the USSR was essentially a one domain power and lost the war before it ever started due to western domination of all other domains..china is planing to fight a war with the west across very domain and has aready started winning in many areas.
I can assure you, the Block 0 Aster has been able to take out ballistic missile targets during live firing trials. This was on the back of testing Aster against very high diving drone targets that specifically replicate anti-ship missiles like the Kh-22/32. Which is done using the Coyote target drone.
S1850M, Sampson and the PAAMS CMS can track ballistic threats. I won’t go into the issues. But Aster Block 0 can hit a ballistic target.
MBDA and the MoD have launched the Sea Viper Evolution (SVE) program, which was signed off in April last year. This is a two phased upgrade program. Where the 1st phase is known as SVE Capability 1. This replaces the current warhead with the one used in Block 1, which I believe has better variable timed fusing plus more bang (and insensitive munition). But also the missile (Block 0) gets additional software/firmware updates. There are also updates to Sampson and PAAMS (SMS). All Block 0 Asters in UK stock will be upgraded to the Block 1 standard.
Phase 2 of SVE Capability 2, sees the introduction of the Aster Block 1NT missile. It will also need further upgrades to Sampson and the PAAMS (CMS). This is a completely separate program to the CAMM installation.
Hi Davey are you sure, there is a great deal of difference between a high diving air breathing drone, maybe managing a transonic steep dive from 10-15k meters and the short range ballistic missile plunging from its 50km apogee and doing Mach 7+. I know they have tested block 1 against that target set but never seen anything close related to block 0.
Hi Jon, the Coyote drone being rocket then ramjet powered reaches speeds well over Mach 3. Not quite the Mach 4+ of the Kh22/32. However like the Kh-22/32 it can be programmed to dive in to a target at various angles, including very steep dives of 80 degrees.
A ballistic missile will be falling on to a target from anything between 60 and 85 degrees. Granted they will be diving a lot faster. But a lot will depend on the type of missile and the height it reaches, or if it’s a re-entry vehicle targeting the ship.
I can’t give you precise details. But the T45 has been tested against ballistic missile target drones and Aster was used.
Hi Davey, that is really interesting thanks, so it’s not within the realm of impossible for an intercept. The ballistic missiles the Houthi are using seems to be the fatah 313 at present, so apogee of around 40-50km and about Mach 7…but Iran have so many varieties of BM, you cannot be sure what they will hand Houthi next….seems like Russia is also looking to source Iranian BMs..but is a bit worried that the U.S. will hand Ukraine long range systems if it does.
Because as I understand it every missile has to recalculate when it gets near its target. The problem is the hyposonic missile is too fast for its own good. So it does not have enough time to do so or it has to slow down making it vulnerable to be intercepted. I can only speculate that the reason the US has not fielded such missiles is they trying to overcome this problem.
Ignore. Such comments are aimed at domestic consumption by Putin’s many supporters, usually the older generations who want the USSR back, trust the government to do what’s right, and don’t want to rock the boat.
Basically, clueless, or indifferent.
Putin knows such an attack means article 5, a NATO response, and the end of him, and probably the end of us.
Means he’s worried firstly. And secondly as you say, saber rattling to please coffin dodgers domestically.
I saw a street interview of an 84 year old Russian woman. She said Putin was an idiot & a crook. She was fed up with her fellow Russians letting Putin away with it. She said she was too old to care what they did to her & that was why she was willing to speak out. In public, many Russians spout Putin’s propaganda, but in private they know it is false.
She’s taken 84 years to realise ?????
Its taken 84 years for someone to ask her.
It’s taken 84 years for someone to listen to her!
Can’t remember which Type 45 Destroyer it was a few years back when Russia were harass it think it was HMS Duncan .So mybe on that day we need was again a cool headed Captain 🇬🇧
Defender…. She made a great Picture at full chat off the Crimean Peninsular. Rumour had it, she was at 33 Knots !
He had a cool head because he was in command of one of the world’s best air defence destroyers being buzzed by 17 stupid Russian pilots who would have been toast in a real conflict scenario.
17 jets Vs 48 Aster15/30s. I favour the missiles.
In reality the government need to get serious. Get sea ceptor onto the type 45s pronto.
Fit NSM across the entire fleet.
Refit the river batch 1+2s with the excellent 40mm Bofors or 56mm bae gun.
Order type 32 and another batch of type 31s and at least another 4 type 26s.
We are heading for war. Everyone knows it. Only our government is uniquely sticking it’s head in the sand and pretending everything is fine.
Take a leaf out of Poland’s book. Crash rearmaments programme needed since Feb 2021.
Happy New Year to you Mr Bell, love the passion, but please add 1mm to your 56mm for the lovely 57mm Bofors… 😆
It was HMS Duncan.
Nope, it was Defender.
There were two seperate incidents that happened in the Black Sea – one involved Duncan in 2018,the other one Defender in 2021, it depends which one the OP was referring too,but the Duncan one being buzzed by Russian Warplanes is the most commonly known.
To be honest, I think we have to take notice of these. What dictators say to their populations tend to come to fruition at some point…yes the individual comment is just rhetoric…but rhetoric creates “a truth” in a population..the rhetoric around Ukraine ended in war…every one of these comments build a greater pressure in that society to “do something” about the enemy.We need to stop seeing this as just isolated bluster and see the truth..Russia, china, Iran and North Korea are our enemies they see the west as the enemy and are attacking the west using sub kinetic warfare and proxies for kinetic warfare…they are also preparing their populations for conflict using this dialogue…at some point it’s going to flip, unless a direction is changed in the west…
Not really. As the OP said this is aimed at domestic audiences (like the “nuke Britain” calls).
A direct attack by Russian forces would trigger an article 5 NATO response and war.
That’s the point, it’s for the domestic audience…if it was just bluster at the UK that’s actually less of an issue…think about what this is doing to the social pressure in Russia for a war with the west…china is doing the same.
You have to remember these are totalitarian states, they use communications in a different way to the west. They use state media purposefully to create a narrative for their population preparing the way for the future. Both china and Russia are creating a narrative of war with the west, just think about that for a second..then consider the social pressure in these totalitarian states where literally billions of people think we the UK, US etc are the enemies of their ways of life…what do you think likely happens next ( within the next decade):
1) social pressure rips the totalitarian state apart..AKA the Soviet Union.
2) it launches a war of aggression…this is by far the most common historic outcome.
Yes but not much we can do, they struck first and they started their anti western rhetoric to cover their own totalitarianism.
Both Russia and China will end up as failed states
They must not perceive us as weak or we will have a problem but we must only contain them for a while then thy will implode through demographics and uncompetitive industry.
I agree, but what the west is not doing is acting like it’s taking the threat seriously or is prepared in anyway to fight a long devastating war..the west beat the USSR by simply being willing and able to go all the way, the USSR had no doubt that the west would engage in a world war to either mutual destruction or mutual strategic exhaustion.
move forward 35 years and you have a west that shows every indication it has no intention of ever fighting a world war over anything…it’s every behaviour re-enforces this.
1) Political weakness and unwillingness to tell its populations hard truths.
2) populations unwilling to suffer any loss of income or lifestyle.
3) unwillingness to ensure manufacturing is secure and lines of supply are resistant to blockage or disruption.
4) unwillingness to engage in sub kinetic conflict, including political and economic warfare…
basically everything China is willing to do and sees as a strength.
As for demographic timebomb…yes and that’s why unless we change our behaviour a world war is a very real possibility…china knows it’s point of maximum strength will be around 2027-2029…that’s when it’s aiming for war.
Chinese industry is larger that the west and has been purposefully made inefficient as policy…it’s lost around 2% of growth each year on purpose to harden itself and create internal markets and supply chains to harden itself against conflict and world wide supply chain disruption..it’s also forced changes on every industry to make sure it can be turned into wartime production…just consider that for a second a totalitarian state has purposeful moved from an economic model of growth as a primary driver to development of an effective wartime economy as a goal, accepting significant loss of growth and income.
as part of its plan…while changing the law around mobilisation, annually practicing mobilisation, practicing every year how it will attack its enemies, putting over 10 major warships a year into commission, while telling its population to prepare for war by 2027..if everyone knew what Hitler was doing but somehow held out for peace, actually creating the opening and belief in Hitler to plunge the world into war..what are we doing with china..will china just go ohhh well we were just about there in 2027 but now we are going down hill..or will it at the hight of its power, with a belief the west is weak and a population educated in Han exceptionalism..instead plow strait into the west with everything it has….I know which answer history says is more likely.
Meanwhile our principal lead nation actually has a completely senile and grossly incompetent leadership set up. You couldn’t make it up. Someone needs to actually do something FFS. I blame the MSM who could do this but wont for the most part. KC3 is a navel gazer in chief who wont be prompting our PM to do anything but go net zero. We will get net zero all right but not the way we will like.
A shrewd estimation Jim. Much of this discussion reads like a Hollywood script: The villains never make a mistake for the first two reels and then succumb to inspired good luck in the finale. The best weapon the west possesses to use against Iran is the Iranian regime. Russia, that Russia we all feared, was thrashed in public just under two years ago. It can gain mud in Ukraine but as soon as a war of manoeuvre in strength comes to pass, if ever it does, then the results will be the same.
We should remind ourselves (thanks Bob) that some alcohol dependent Russian television celebrity was urging Putin to obliterate the U.K. not so long ago, complete with charts to show how this could be done.
To turn to Storm Shadow & SCALP, I hope, for once at least, a clearly successful project is properly nurtured by the sort of enhancements set out by Michael Hannah above.
Charles, above, is right: Two million a go is a very cost effective way to get inside Putin’s head.
But Chinas industry is not uncompetitive and if it is used to prop up and even develop Russia (and others) in exchange for raw materials et al in which it is generally weak then there is no guarantee it will decline. You can see why they did this alliance with Russia a useful attack dog and a very compatible economy that benefits both for sometime ahead. If China industrialises Russia and through Taiwan takes control of up to 90% of chip production imagine the risk to the West. One thing is for sure the West, especially Europe needs Ukraine to bolster its defences and its food supply as much as it needs us.
Both RF and CCP have a population demographic decline that will frustrate their imperial delusions.
The CCP efficiency is economic not productive. They do produce smartphones at a price that sells and makes profit however not from automation and industrialization as the west does. Other than within chip fabs where human debris is fatal to product yield.
So scaling up by land and people not productive industrialisation depends on the land and people remaining cheap. A dictatorship has advantage with this but not sustainability.
I agree with you. We lack someone with the stature, respect and long view to be able to speak out and warn the UK and other Western populations of the dangers lying ahead. Churchill did this with his famous ‘Iron Curtain’ speech. Meanwhile the midgets running the UK scrape by with a generally accepted 2% (minus) defence budget. Clueless bunch, who will likely lose us everything.
Spot on, the rhetoric around Ukraine is almost all bluster but as options with proxies strengthens I fear such a provocation will occur and only if it’s against the US is a clear and powerful response assured I suspect and even there the US has held back on retaliation in Iraq and Syria and so far Red Sea so it would have to be pretty serious and Russian involvement very clear to ensure that powerful response I mention above. Some big tests to come I fear esp if Putin’s expectations the West is tiring in support of Ukraine prove not to be as reliable as he hopes. He’s looking to Trump to save his ass.
In fairness they have regularly threatened to nuke the UK so sinking a warship is a reduction for them. 😀
Fair point!
At this point in my life, I’d welcome an Instant end to paying Taxes….lol….. Humankind/hatred, is hell bound either way…………… 😓
Would depend I guess on just how easy it is to categorically guarantee whose missile it was. The Poles ignored a Russian missile flying through their territory last week on the grounds that they did not wish to escalate. I wonder what Putin felt about that from one of the more active anti Russian elements of NATO. Would any of them wish the risk of nuclear war to want to respond other than strong words and threats to a ‘British’ problem. Probably very short sighted but I could see it happen and whatever happens in Ukraine expect Putin to continue to push the limits and perhaps go beyond. The problem is when you keep ignoring the provocations at what point do you respond to one? I fear he will want to test that. Currently I doubt the Houthis have a weapon or set up capable of doing what he would like but for how long will that be the case. He will claim a Russian originated ballistic or other missile (or developed through mutual cooperation as proposed with Iran) in the hands of this group, we will not likely know if Russians are actually firing it for them, is no different to SS in the hands of Ukraine. I fear an incident of this nature may well happen at some stage and Britain will be the most obvious victim
I didn’t understand that. A missile flew over their country. It was in their air space and yet they didn’t shoot it down. Or was it that they couldn’t shoot it down as Poland (like the UK) hasn’t got any viable GBAD?
Personally, I see all that as quite a compliment. Russia absolutely should see this as something the UK was actively involved in; if you want to commit chemical attacks on our soil then expect some response. The only frustration was that it didn’t come at the time- although t shouldn’t have been kinetic just to be clear. It shows how weak our government was at the time that the solidarity responses of the US and EU were more significant than our own. Honestly, I see it as a step on the path to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as well. Weak response encourages greater conflict.
One other interesting point, to me at least, is that the Russian media seem to be considering the Houthis as one of their proxies. That hasn’t been acknowledged in the West, and the Houthis themselves are claiming all their activity is to do with the situation in Gaza and Israel. There’s obviously a link with Iran, and the Houthis attacks on shipping and US Navy ships benefit both Iran and Russia. But I’d be surprised if there was a direct proxy relationship between Russia and the Houthis.
Agree the Houthis are supported by, trained by, funded by and equipped by Iran.
As Russia however has found Iran an ally there is a link, albeit a new fledgling link.
It’s hillarious though as the Iranians would likely want to see Russia destroyed as much as the Western world, being a non Muslim, primarily Christian country.
I guess they are both working off the principle that the enemy of my enemy must be my friend.
Quite a turnaround for ‘religious fundamentalist’.
Fundamentally, only interested in maintaining iron control over their own people. Iran funded Houthis’ a major military organisation, whilst their Yemeni Muslim brothers & sisters remain as dirt poor as ever.
Religion, what a timeless joke.
Interestingly the Islamic extremism do see both the capitalist west and communist east as the enemy of Islam…but Iran is not actually an extremist state..they are a theocracy that is willing to use extremists as a weapon of war.the reality is it’s not a fledgling link…Iran did not gain the knowledge of building advanced ballistic missiles on it a own..china gave them support over a couple of decades.
china, Iran, Russian, North Korea, a couple of other Middle Eastern states and some African and South American states, now essentially form a developing global anti U.S./western axis with china as the acknowledged leader.
There are also a growing body of neutral states, that have fallen out of the western geopolitical pole but not settled in the Chinese anti western pole.
Again spot on.
Good summary, agreed that the world has become a lot more complex over the last few years.
It’s those neutral states that we need to keep an eye on- as they have the potential to tip the balance one way or the other. It’s one of the reasons why I think we should stop blocking western support of Argentina- who I feel falls into the neutral category currently. If we continue to do so without considering the bigger picture, then they’ll just fall into the lap of China.
I would far rather have a frosty but working relationship with Argentina (similar to Spain vis a vis Gib), than a Chinese patsy willing to cause some real ruckus to pay off their hideous belt and road loans…
Exactly so and therefore ripe for exploitation, though I doubt the west has the right people do achieve much at present.
Both regimes are actually shaky, Iran more so than Russia – but the first place swops day by day. Both have been appeased in this present century and now look.
Yup…. That’s exactly it.
Russia to all intents is the least Islamic tolerant Country in the World….. Just look at Chechnya…..
Of course, as is China of course. The Chinese despise the Russians who exploited them and stole what they believe to be their land in the east. No coincidence that 15 Russian places of interest have in China been given their old Chinese names again, including Vladivostok. Only hatred of the West keeps those two from animosity.
Agreed, an age old principle, and everyone has subscribed to it at one point or other in time- just look at us and the USSR during WW2.
The Russians can be quite good at subtlety when they want to be, when they aren’t it’s either through incompetence or they want to give a message to intimidate.
That’s a fair point- it’s hard to remember sometimes when you watch them launch attack after attack with lightly armed infantry against dug in positions…
Bring it on, Diamond is quite capable of shooting down multiple incoming threats. On her own
There’s’s rightly been much talk on UKDJ over when would be the most opportune time for, say, China, to strike at the democratic ‘west’.
Multiple demands on the West’s weapon stocks, lethargic manufacturing base & equipment gapping decisions, caused by numerous incited regional conflicts, would be a fairly good softening up strategy beforehand. Maybe.
One positive about he UkR war is that it our equipment manufacturers are learning much about how their products are performing in real time. Like Storm Shadow. And conversely, the whole world can see that Russian equipment is crap. And their officer’s battlefield tactics, Complete crap.
Not to mention the effect that western sanctions are having on Russian body bag manufcturers, thats why multiple sources are saying the battlefields around Andiivka and Bahkmut are littered with decomposing Russian dead
Also interesting to note just how much Chinese military hardware is based on Russian hardware, and if Russian hardware is underperforming in Ukraine (which it is) that might give the Chinese pause for thought. Russia’s much vaunted S400 has not been able to stop Russia from losing half it’s Black Sea fleet (and HQ) and that was just the few dozen missiles we and the French gave Ukraine. One can imagine in a full scale conflict in which China suddenly faces hundreds of such missiles coming at it that the damage would be pretty severe. The US of course has similar missiles to the Storm Shadow class and a single B-1B can carry about 20 LRASM which would be a headache for any Chinese surface task force.
Remember just a few years ago when China was desperate to get S400 and the Russians were holding it back.
It can’t even stop 1 storm showdow, it’s got no chance against the USAF.
Credit is also due to the AFU in building strike packages including drones, HARM, Decoys and Storm Shadow so that S-400 and MANPADS were overwhelmed and the true targets obliterated along with incidental targets.
Our ISTAR support of value too.
We knew Russian gear was wanting after Gulf 1. It is only the quantity and mass that allows Russia to keep replenishing losses. Sadly the UK does not see mass as necessary. We have not been “bogged down” since WW1. Tech wise, yes, we are years ahead. Quantity wise? I guess after two weeks of fighting we would be banjaxed.
China’s army is largely based on the Soviet model, with similar centralised control. In a land war, this could lead to a lack of flexibility and plan C’s. Western armies have learned to challenge their officers and give them agency, whereas Chinese exercises look much more like performances than anything else
True but hasn’t stopped India (and despite their own negativity with Russian weaponry) signing a mutual military production agreement this past week even though I haven’t seen any details of it and how important it might be but still concerning esp as it’s hardly clear how supportive they would be in any conflict with China but then that’s probably why they want to build it in India and likely use plenty of western tech I suspect.
We should not be enabling that. They are not our friends as their support for RF oil revenue has shown. Worse, enablement of sanction evasion with refined oil products.
They are only transactional and push the Hindu nationalist rhetoric including delight in undermining the old imperialists.
Recent attempt to rename the country being an example..
Recent Sunak visit giving rise to an hilarious “Indian in charge of the empire now” trope..
Thoughtful of Putin. In due course Ukraine’s breadbasket status’ll be regained by generously donated manure.
A simple answer is….. The West needs to cease buying from China…. It’s the West that is funding their Expansions…. I’m not alone in this thinking, but I do seem to be in the minority. !
Not alone. Huawei+ panic being a security related nudge to get CCP out of critical infrastructure.
+ You are the CCP.
Unfortunately when you visit a phone store it’s full of products from CCP entities or made in CCP factories. So the general public is fully unaware that the cheap products are really expensive given the loss of Fair Trade, Intellectual Property, Freedom of Navigation and respect for Human Rights that come with CCP global dominance.
That’s before you take account for sustainability and environmental impact..
Amazing that people can’t connect Armistice Day/ Rememberance Sunday to the freedom cost of low prices.
We should be pricing for risk just like the insurance industry since the tax payers will become responsible for the cost..
No longer simple exactly, but undoubtably needs long term rebalancing.
Whilst West tries to be inclusive, Autocrats are perennially revisionist; including some that lodge within our own democratic institutions.
Either way, it’s noteworthy China’s still an onlooker from Djibouti whilst West takes necessary kinetic response and shoulders retaliatory risk – thereby protecting China’s trade as much as our own.
I trust we’ll make them pay in the long run.
It is a very capable vessel which believe now has Sea Ceptor. They’d be daft to attack it.
Diamond hasn’t even had PIP upgrades much less the Sea Viper / Sea Ceptor upgrades. Of course they’d still be daft to attack it.
Multiple yes…. but only up to a point…. We are seeing major tactical leaps at the moment, where Swarm attacks and Decoys would deplete a T45’s effective weapons load in short time….. It’s of huge concern to me that these State of the Art AAW Ships are just so lightly armed. Think about the UKR ambition to produced 1 million Drones this year, look at just how effective a precisely aimed DJI Drone with just a grenade has been against Russian MBT’s ….. This Warfare has moved beyond 1982 …..
I don’t understand the perspective of the Russian media.
Here, they appear to be actively calling for the deaths of Ru service personnel across the globe. To get to the Red Sea and back, their jets would need to pass either near Cyprus and over either Turkey or Greece (both NATO members) or over the UAE, Saudi Arabia, both nominally Western allies and certainly anti-Houthi. If in large enough (10 or so) , the jets might be able to sink Diamond, but they certainly wouldn’t get home again.
Followed by the imminent destruction of all of the Russian subs being tailed by NATO navies across the world and the entire at-sea Russian surface fleet.
Only direct assets would be Syria based but as you say would have to be on a flight pattern that would be suicide and clearly fully Russian won’t happen. However smuggling in missiles to Houthi or other ‘helpful’ middlemen would be the obvious solution and very much deniable even if only in Salisbury terms. What would be the response then, well I’m not so sure actually what the response would be, very possibly less assured than some think I fear. And that’s where all the Russian threats and bluster can work it does add fear to the equation of potential response especially in a disparate organisation like NATO where even article 5 doesn’t automatically ensure that all will actively unite and respond. Most worryingly Putin’s failures make him only more keen to see what actions he can take that won’t unite the West in a united and powerful response. Could turn him from laughing stock to victor in many influential eyes and make the west the laughing stock and paper tiger overnight. High stakes, high risk but a cornered dog as they say which is sadly exactly why the West is holding back from what it could do to support Ukraine which only feeds into his feeling that ‘mad’ threats can be effective if not quite the way they espouse.
Now would be a good time for a status update on the various T45 upgrade programs. Please 😊
At least the Russians are all but admitting they are behind encouraging the Houthi’s to target western ships so as to threaten trade and raise the price of oil, as if we didn’t know. I suspect the timing of Venezuela suddenly claiming a part of Guyana and Nth Kore upping its nuclear rhetoric against the South isn’t unrelated too. Do the Americans (or the dimmer ones) really not see how all this is and will increasingly become related including on their own doorstep if Russia gets away with its Ukranian mis-adventure? Reading the ISW report from mid December and recent European statements of Russian intent should be warning enough surely.
Guyana is safe mate, we sent a gunboat 😆
Very cynical take. Clearly it was a message from a ship that happened to be in the area at the time rather more than a threat. Besides which, send more than an OPV and you give yourself fewer avenues to escalate without going to war
In my world you do not tread softly with communist dictators. You give them a strongly worded, easily understood message. And the cynicism is based on experience. Decades of it.
No, the MAGA isolationists don’t get it at all and don’t connect American property and status to global trade and stability.
Prisoner trump has fully demonstrated his disregard for national security and the armed forces. His ongoing 91 indictments show a lack of understanding the facts and dealing with them as a competent person should.
He’s know as the Tangerine Toddler due to his tantrums.
He says that he loves the unintelligent people and cultivates a victim narrative:
The corrupt DoJ is persecuting me because I’m an outsider like you!
I’m not afraid to be prosecuted because I’m doing it for you and America!
Despite being a Billionaire, allegedly, he sells cloth strips of his suit, worn in Court in a relentless grift from the ignorant and vulnerable MAGA supporters.
Although Putin’s spokeperson, the 1970s throwback Dmitry Peskov denies the comment, the ‘small island that no one pays attention to’, seems to get a lot of attention. This contradiction is because Russias understanding of world power is that of a zero sum game of being a so called great power. They rank Britain in a lower tier but that does not fit their idea of power, and so then the state media talks of Britain as the bogeyman of their failures. Wasn’t long ago I saw their state TV showing gleefully nuking Britain with graphics etc, now the Stormshadows are getting quite the reputation, so expect more of this nonsense.
The Global Economy could do with a year of peace. If the fighting stopped in Ukraine & Gaza, there would be a major jump in spending/investment. Sadly, I doubt that will happen. Ukraine & Gaza will drag on, with the Houthis risking conflict with US, UK & others. Don’t forget that the Suez canal is a major source of income for Egypt. Some may think it is pointless striking the Houthis, unless you are willing to strike their Iranian masters. It was recently said that Western Intelligence thinks Iran has enough enriched Uranium for 3x nuclear warheads. Will Israel risk that after Oct 7th? I think it is 50-50, that Iran faces a major air bombardment in 2024.
Sleepy joe ain’t bombing anyone next year and Trump is even less likely to bomb Iran. The US political system no longer cares enough about the Middle East to attack Iran.
More likely an Israeli strike to start, with Sunni nations who hate the mad mullahs, then joining in.
The big problem with this is Putin losing control of his media. In other words the shouts become so loud Putin has to do it or lose face. So no doubt the Kremlin are working on proxy groups to carry out their cowards work in targeting British ships. That’s the only way Putin can satisfy the hawks. But the big worry is them sneaking in biological/ chemical agents into the country. Another reason, like we needed another, one to stop those dinghy’s and search all the lorries thoroughly.
Blimey! Now they were claiming the ship was only damaged and easily repaired and we get all this grief🙄now imagine the strop they would be in if it was actually sunk😂
The people of Russia almost certainly hold us responsible for the destruction of their assets and the death of their sailors.
I doubt very much that HMS Diamond has anything to worry about with her impressive defensive armament. But given their nature, the Russians will retaliate one way or another. They are obstinate, rather cantankerous and don’t easily forget transgressions. More than a little like us British. (See Boris Johnson and his retaliation for the sarin and radioisotope use on British soil.)
It will be interesting to see if Putin’s popularity increases or decreases as a result of the official media coverage.
Hopefully the CAMM can be added to the T45 sooner than later and more than 24. There looks like room for 2*3*6 end on end down the sides if non deck piercing. And why not put in 1-2 MK41s, slot(s) already there! Sorry, my rant carrying over from 2023!
David Cameron just stated on sky that in the last attack 20 +’missiles / UAVs were directed at Diamond!! Not sure if that’s what he intended to say? 7 taken out by Diamond. Anyone know the relative position of the USN / RN vessels.