Russian forces have now fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine say the British Ministry of Defence in an intelligence update.

The intelligence update advises that some of these forces will be transferred to the east to fight in Donbas.

The forces will require replenishment before being deployed further east, with any mass redeployment from the north likely to take at least a week, the ministry added.

The latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine reads as follows.

  1. In the north, Russian forces have now fully withdrawn from Ukraine to Belarus and Russia. At least some of these forces will be transferred to East Ukraine to fight in the Donbas.
  2. Many of these forces will require significant replenishment before being ready to deploy further east, with any mass redeployment from the north likely to take at least a week minimum.
  3. Russian shelling of cities in the east and south continues and Russian forces have advanced further south from the strategically important city of Izium which remains under their control.

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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39 COMMENTS

  1. That’s all very good. The question is though. What Russian Federation formations are there remaining close to the border in order to tie Ukranian forces down? Will the Ukrainians be able to move sufficient forces to help with the defence of the south and east?

    • The answer is a probable no, the issues being serious problems with the availability of diesel and the vulnerability of transit routes to interdiction.

      Whilst the Russian forces both sides of Kiev kept the UkA from moving east to reinforce Donbas, Russian Aerospace destroyed much of Ukraine’s fuel stocks and refineries and hence its ability to move its army long distances.

      The route, equivalent to at least London to Inverness (as the crow flies) is mainly over open flat land so vulnerable to air attack and the destruction of vehicles, roads and railways. Key points of the latter have already been hit. Russian Aerospace has destroyed much of Ukraine’s AD and protecting convoys could expose more.

      If Russia’s objectives in its attacks to Kiev and feints to Odessa were to keep the UkA in the west from moving to bolster the east, then it looks like they have pretty much succeeded. Similarily, forces in the east will face difficulty if they try to fall back west.

      • No, the Russian army hasn’t succeeded in any of its objectives, apart from, of course the wholesale murder of civilians and the destruction of housing, hospitals and schools. You sound so proud of the murdering scum.

        • I agree with you. Putin and Moscow and Russia must be demilitarized. NATO should immediately accept Ukraine and drive the Ruski’s back to MOSCOW HELL 🔥

      • Maybe the European countries that are still buyting diesel from Mad Vlad and the Oligarchs should be ‘encouraged’ to donate half of it to the Ukraine…as a sort of apeasement tax so to speak …The irony wouldnt be wasted on me

        • Estonia has already set aside 5M euros to purchase diesel for Ukraine. Problem will be delivery, tankers are relatively easy targets.

          • Tankers are only east targets if you can distinguish between them and school buses. And that seems to be beyond the ability of the Russian Air Force.

      • The answer is probably not as Ukraine already had its best units in the South and East. The units in the North that repelled Russia’s advance from Belarus were far from being Ukraine’s best – and yet they still won….

        Russian units from the north will be delayed as to when they can be relocated to the East as they’re too busy in Belarus trying to sell all the property they looted from Ukraine.

  2. Undoubtedly some will remain up north so that ukraine needs to hold forces back to defend a potential push.

    I assume even the Russian army isn’t incompetent enough to not see the value of a zero cost way of tying up enemy forces. Especially if they use their lesser capable units up there to do it.

    On a positive though, nato intel will be able to give ukraine accurate info on Russian numbers, movement and signs of intent to move. Hopefully it will enable some of ukraines forces to redeploy south and east.

    The priority has to be avoiding encirclement of their donbas forces.

  3. And with tails between legs. Good riddance.

    Hope the sabotage on the Belarus railways continues and UKR start hitting railway lines and their rolling stock in the Donbas.

    • Railway lines in Donbas are relatively short and don’t play a big part. Most stuff comes from Russia under its own power.

        • Hi Danielle

          Well I wanted the RN to sink the Russian amphibious fleet when it was off Margate a couple of months ago. But you thought it would trigger WW3 and a nuclear response….now you advocate taking the fight to the Russian mainland….lol

          I also thought the Ukraine should have launched a massive preemptive surprise air attack on Russian forces as they were forming up in Belarus, rather than waiting for them to invade. Attack is deffo the best form of defence.

          • Yep just ask the Israeli’s…won the 7 day war with that strategy …The Egyptian air force were still in bed….

          • The Ukrainians, not us, taking the fight to the mainland. That was my point then and still is. They have been attacked and entitled to fight back. We have not been attacked yet unless I missed it.
            As they’ve done already hitting an airfield near Rostov with a SRBM and a fuel farm in Belgorod.
            It’s not a matter that needs a LOL BTW as I made my point quite clear then. NATO attacking Russia over Ukraine will indeed result in WW3.

          • You are right Daniele, I think that the Ukrainians would love to hit Russia proper but, with the virtual elimination of their air force’s ability to operate, they either lack the weapons with the range to do so or do not want to risk them. Now the Russians are forewarned I doubt that there will be another Mi-24 sortie.

            They have now lost 5 helicopters trying to extract high value people out of Mariupol. They will no doubt want to keep some back to do similar rescue ops out of Donbas over the next few weeks.

          • What a load of rubbish you write. In actual fact, it’s the VDV that are unable to operate over Ukraine, they regularly get shot down. As for Donbas, how many civilians do you think the Russian military will murder ? How many schools and hospitals will be bombed and shelled by the Russian nazis?

            I note that you are quick to come on to a post about Ukrainian success and try to deflect. You were nowhere to be seen in the posts about warcrimes.

        • Ukraine definitely needs offensive weaponry to start hitting Russia’s logistics and supporting infrastructure across the boarder in Russia.

          Taking out the Kersch Bridge etc would also be a good move if they’re to take back Crimea too.

          • Yes, I believe they will have more chance continuing to strangle the supply lines ads I believe has been part of their defensive plan so far, as I fear for Ukraine in a pitched mechanized battle Tank vs Tank with harder ground post Rasputitsa.

            Despite the Russians failures they are many more and in a war of attrition head to head…? Germany lost that way despite repeatedly besting the Soviets tactically in many areas. Numbers told.

            I hope I am wrong and they continue to defy the odds with NATO’s help. Supply and the state of their supply trucks seems to be the Russians biggest of many weak links.

            Slava Ukraini.

        • DM. the internet seems to think the Russians are regrouping at Belgorod, before they move East & South.

  4. Nothing Russia claims can mask this epic defeat. Confront Putin with a simple message: You won’t win and the west will make absolutely certain you won’t. Let him wonder what that means.

  5. Difficult. RusMil deploying artillery behind an infantry screen in Belorus would enable them to shell UkrMil without counter battery fire; this would attrite dug in positions, however, transitioning new volunteer forces through the border would allow some seasoning of raw recruits.

    Regular forces could join in the defence of the Eastern sector but there would a need for mobility if intelligence suggested Russia was building again on the northern border.

    We should follow the Czechs and supply offensive aid to smash Russian air and artillery superiority.

  6. You have to wonder what this remarkable Ukrainian force has done to Russian morale. What’s to say the Russian brass will even be able to order the Russian army to redeploy to the SE of the country?

  7. Hopefully the Ukrainian forces can still pursue the withdrawing Russian forces shooting up their heal and flanks so they have even less regroup with. And looking forward to any news that some AShMs have taken out more of the Russian fleet!
    Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦. What a country of fighters!

    • Don’t think any Russian ship has been hit by an AshM yet. All I have seen is a small attack craft hit with a ATGM and the landing craft probably with a Tochka.

      • Give it time John, expect the Russian Navy to next in the queue for a good mauling ….

        The Russians are going to carry on getting their arses handed to them until they withdraw …

        Ironically, they very well might end up having to withdraw from Crimea too (eventually) to get the pressing sanctions boot off their neck.

        Russia has been utterly humiliated by Ukraine….

        • Well I for one hope the current sanctions against Russia are carried forwards until Crimea and the Dondas are fully returned to The Ukraine…better late than never !

        • I admire your faith in the Ukrainians but it is probably misplaced as you have been lulled into a false place by the events around Kiev.

          Cast your eyes to the other aspects of the war, the navy has ceased to exist, the airforce are virtually confined to base, the AD are slowly being whittled away, the Russian Army is moving forward slowly but inexorably on the eastern front, the defence of Mariupol is now down to a few areas, concentrated on the steel factory with its deep, USSR built, bunkers.

          Then there is the issue of how they get the weapons and other gear pouring across the Polish and other borders to somewhere hundreds of miles away where they might be of use.

          Ukraine is a lost cause, regardless of their obvious bravery they have no hope against the Russian military machine grinding its way forward.

          You may not have noticed but the ruble today is now stronger than when the war started whilst we are going to be hit hard with big energy and food price increases (seen any sunflower oil in the shops recently?). Someone seriously misjudged things.

          • The ruble is stronger, because Putin has made it nigh on impossible to trade it for any other mainstream currency. Once it is allowed to float freely, watch what happens then.

          • The Ukrainian navy is tiny and was never a factor in the Russian invasion, gloating over its demise shows how desperate you are to present it as a success. You are wrong about the Ukrainian air force, it is still flying and is likely to be augmented with further air assets from friendly nations, the same cannot be said about Russia sanctioned and cut off from technological support. The Russian Air force has been a tactical and strategic failure in Ukraine, capable of bombing only civilian targets and trying to intimidate neighbours.

            I think that the Ukrainians know well how to move material around their country, they’ve shown a remarkable aptitude for it, unlike the comical ineptitude of Russian military logistics.

            The Russian army moving forward?? You’re wrong again. It has been stopped in its tracks. A defeated Russian army has retreated back to Belarus where it will attempt to transport itself to the Donbas region and redeploy. Unfortunately for them, they will use the same equipment, the same useless leadership, the same inept tactics, the same rubbish logistics. Those Javelins, NLAW’s, starstreaks and more will continue to exact a massive toll on Russia.

            So no, you’re listening to Peskov too much, it is Russia that is a lost cause, and you don’t know what you’re talking about.

          • Russia GDP is less than Italy’s and they are up against most of the Western world and South Korea,Japan,Australia and New Zeeland. Only going to be one winner there

          • Here he goes back to his Putin loving chuff! Ukraine isn’t finished as they will just get more and more covert and overt western help, as Putin has shown his forces are absolute shite, and the more losses his crap forces take the better for the west in the future my little troll! The Cold War is about to begin again but no longer is anyone afraid of the conventional Russkie mil, only the nuke option which is controlled by an unstable Nazi small penis madman who likes young girls! Putin has done the west a favour, thank him for us trolly!

  8. Now the real(istic) fight begins, no doubt. Both sides are showing exhaustion, physically and materially, but with many of Russia’s lines of communication issues likely ameliorated, though.
    Regardless, Putin cannot be allowed to annex more eastern or southern territory, whose Ukrainian populace (‘russian-speaking’ or otherwise – always a ridiculous distinction) have fought tooth and nail against his aggression.
    If anything, we have to support Ukraine to an even greater extent than before, impressive though that has been to date.
    The eventual outcome and analysis thereof will have ramifications worldwide:-
    Hopefully, by significant others, a re-regarded assessment of NATO/’Western’ resolve.
    Regretfully, with a Russia that over twenty years will have managed to snatch politically influencial defeat from potential renown. Some may argue yet again.

    • Putin should have “love bombed” Ukraine with cheap oil & gas + restarted joint aviation projects. It would have cost him billions, but not even a tenth the cost of this war. Plus the average Ukrainian would have thought a lot better of Russia. This war will drive Ukraine away from Russia for generations.

  9. The battle of Kyiv was an undoubted victory for Ukraine. However the coming battle in the Donbass will not be as easy. Around Kyiv the topography is such that marshes, woods, tributaries and conurbations allowed the Ukrainians to channel the Russian advance into kill zones and to attack their logistic flanks with their light infantry forces. Down south the ground is very different. We are talking about dead flat agricultural steppe with very little cover, where visibility goes right out to the horizon and that is ideal for large scale armoured manoeuvre warfare. On top of that the Ukrainians will not be able to infiltrate and attack the Russian logistics on anything like the same scale. All supplies of armoured vehicles to Ukraine are now critical to this forthcoming battle. Potentially attack drones and Javelin will be very important too. All things being even the Russians hold all the cards BUT the key factor is morale and it seems this is severely lacking in the Russian forces. I just wish we could somehow get those Polish Migs into Ukraine as well as some long range precision strike rocket artillery (GMLRS or HIMARS preferably) so that they can attack those logistic and artillery areas. The next week is essentially going to be a race between western supplies to Ukraine and the Russian reconstitution and redeployment to the Donbass front.

    • Remember these forces relocating have just had their arses kicked! How will they feel going into round two knowing what’s waiting for them? They will also spread the word to any new replacements coming into their units so hopefully we will see the same lacklustre performance as before.

  10. Hold on, what’s stopping politicians from thinking after this war is over that there will be a peace dividend so they can cut military spending and further weaken our militaries ability to do its job

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