The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that the United Kingdom expects to have taken delivery of its 75th F-35 Lightning aircraft by the end of 2033, according to a written parliamentary answer.

Responding to a question from Lord West of Spithead on 5 January 2026, Defence Minister Lord Coaker said “the Department expects to take delivery of its 75th F-35 aircraft by the end of 2033.” The question asked when the government expected to have taken delivery of 74 F-35 jets.

The answer provides an updated indication of the long-term delivery timeline for the UK’s F-35 fleet, which underpins both the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy’s carrier strike capability. The UK has committed to purchasing at least 74 aircraft, with options for further buys beyond that baseline.

As of January 2026, progress on deliveries remains focused on completing the current tranche. According to a separate parliamentary answer from Veterans and People Minister Louise Sandher-Jones, the UK had received 41 F-35 aircraft as of 12 November 2025, out of 48 planned to be delivered by the end of that year.

The F-35 Lightning II is operated jointly by the RAF and Royal Navy, with aircraft assigned to RAF Marham and routinely embarked aboard the Royal Navy’s Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers. Deliveries beyond the initial 48 aircraft are expected to continue through the 2030s as the programme transitions from early operational capability to a fully mature fleet.

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216 COMMENTS

    • What’s the urgency of the threat that means that this is order need expediting? I see loads of this kind of commentary but no-one bothers to explain what exactly the issue is and how procuring stuff asap addresses it.

      Our allies across Europe already have enough aircraft, including F35s, to deter the Russians from invasion. Besides, there are already many other gaps that need to be addressed. For example, in boosting our industrial production capacity (not least for basic things like munitions) and building capabilities in areas like C4I and airlift (where we have allowed ourselves to become dependent on the USA). In addition, we in the UK also need to improve our capabilities for basic things like homeland and infrastructure defence (SAMs, mine hunting, ASW).

      All of this is needed just for the purposes of countering the very clear and imminent threat from Russia.

      So, what am I missing? Who else are we in the UK threatened by, so much so that we have to accelerate our purchase of F35s? China? It’s too far away and not our bag. Helping Oz develop its own SSNs is already a pretty good contribution.

      • Missing a lot. As history will tell you it takes days and weeks for conflict to brew but years to build capabilities and train a pilot. Without the US (no longer a reliable NATO partner) we lack mass and resilience. We’ve plenty of centres of gravity emailed by a lack of GBAD and ASuW capability. Without more mass we’ve no ability to regenerate capabilities within short time scales. Pilot training a good example.

      • You have got it right.
        I am more worried about politicians volunteering the soldiers that we don’t need anymore. PBI.
        Boots are always required on the ground.
        Drones do not empty bins, drive fire engines or do the donkey work for olympic games. Neither can they provide support in disaster areas.
        Boots are always required on the ground.

      • Correct and very well expressed. Our only adversary, Russia, can only survive by hanging on. Our priority is at home, defending our borders and civil society. I don’t see a role for the F35. The Far East is an American affair.

        • Indeed, though I would feel happier if more of that kit that is urgent and not US dominated were being acquired. The F-35 question is certainly a hot potato at the moment, we don’t even know how compromised they will be in any given conflict. It’s difficult to feel easy about putting immense future, especially if it’s speeded up investment in a platform with such question marks. If we knew sanity will return in the US after Trump fine, but far too many doubts exist presently to clarify the situation.

          • Thank you. I completely agree when it comes to national sovereignty and control over our armed forces; Canada is facing this issue as I write. After Suez (oddly enough!) the British accepted we would never do anything to cross U.S. leadership of the west. France took another route. We may mock their half and half stance but as time rolls on, it seems to me the French have played their limited national interest cards better than we. Specifically on the F35, I wouldn’t have bothered; ditto the carriers!

            • As of today the Carriers and the F35 combination is the only means by which the UK can project airpower into the far North (Svalbard Greenland etc) . If their is ever a Euro NATO flashpoint with Russia than that is where it will come…especially Svalbard given the history.

          • If Harris or Biden was in charge do these woke weak Liberals not be worse than Trump. Democrats pinned their anti British colours to the mast when we had a dispute with Ireland. As for Afghanistan Biden shafted us and the Europeans.

      • Apparently when in 2024 the SDR team reached out to our allies asked them what UK military capabilities they valued the most, the answers from Nordic and Northern European countries were unanimous – firstly naval and secondly air. Land was a very poor third – the British Army just doesn’t make a difference. Regarding air, large numbers of F-35B’s (or even F-35As) are a poor match to the requirements, the real need is for Tranche 4 Typhoon’s, more P-8s and E-7’s, and a dedicated large and long legged maritime patrol UAV. I wouldn’t have been surprised if SDR had said no more 48 F-35B’s.

    • How quickly do you think you can order an F35? Once the start arriving no point in getting them all in a single Lot as you can’t train pilots without a continuous flow.

      • We need a plan for greater mass – fast tracking pilot training as well as acceleration of orders. Leaving us with c45 jets to 2030 gives us near minimal capability

        • The problem is they have limited capability in weaponry till then as things stand at least, they look like a Maserati (too compromised in all round performance to be considered a Ferrari) but furnished with Lambretta tyres till the early thirties. I would be interested to have a detailed breakdown of their present role and how they would be used in a conflict, it’s difficult ascertain as things stand, the military or Govt are hardly going to be up front about it. Their stealth will be vital in any strike role but how much immunity will it give them? I have read of late that Iran had the S-400 with the supposed ‘stealth detecting’ radar additions but it seems this technology was of little to no use in Israeli strikes. What do we take from that? Can we feel confident of similar success against Russia targets, considering the limited offensive weaponry. Hope so but don’t want us to be buying loads of Fairey Battles just because they are available. Badly need those with expertise to get this one right when there’s such a call on available funds, not easy mind when you add in the unpredictability of the US.

    • What’s the point? They can barely carry any any useful weapon load. When they are ready to be seriously useful then we need more. Until then the whole things a turkey.

      • Blame Lockheed Martin for such long wait times. They need to open more assembly lines to increase out put. By the time we get get that 75th F-35b (did the MOD order any of the F-35a variant yet) we hopefully will have a technology demonstrator of Tempest flying, hopefully!

        • Well considering they need F-35 work to drag out as long as possible they need all the orders they can get, but I do wonder if they want to drag the programme out as long as possible with no present future fast jet programme to replace it, so be it lots of orders restricting availability and delivery slots, or managed production doing so, it does put doubts on how soon we can get them as and when ordered. If Canada cancels as seems very possible and with others too, it all has unpredictable implications. Just hope Tempest can stay on schedule but that’s probably optimistic.

    • Takes 5 years to make a F-35 from the ordering of materials to final assembly. The 2nd lot were ordered last year so the first will be delivered 2030 at the earliest and that’s if we’re at the head of the assembly queue. So 2033 for all of them seems about right. The only way to get more jets quicker is to order Fighters from another source which is why Germany and Italy have ordered more Typhoons as well as F-35’s and Spain is just ordering more Typhoon having scrapped plans to buy F-35s.

    • To be fair it’s not entirely down to us. It’s also the ability of Lockheed Martin to produce enough at pace, and we’re not the only customers.

      If we said right now we want an additional 50 and placed the order today it’d likely still be 5-10 years before we took delivery of all of them.

      Personally I’d rather we order more Typhoons. We can get them more on our own time and it boosts UK economy and production. Also, they can use stand-off strike weapons. Right now the only strike weapon our F-35s can use are Paveway bombs. Kind of defies the point of having stealth aircraft when they have to get within a dozen or so miles of the target – the stealth would be negated at those ranges.

      • I tend to agree Steve. Stand off weapons are improving rapidly while the F-35s compromised weapon load and range will only be more stark by 2030 onwards and its stealth an unknown quantity too so what once seemed a no brainer is more nuanced now in terms of what we receive by 2030 and beyond. Having read so much about the F-35 v Gripen selection for Canada (a different set of requirements to us mind) shows that the balance has nuance especially when you consider the Grippen’s widening weapon capabilities now and coming soon.

          • He’s not suggesting that.

            Instead he is questioning the balance between 4th and 5th generation aircraft thinking that the penalties imposed by 5th gen stealth can be offset by the advantages of 4th gen.

            Much as the US is still buying F-15’s to fight alongside F-35’s.

  3. Its pretty bad when Australia, Norway, Japan and the Netherlands all have more F 35s than we do.

    The Tempest can’t come soon enough but I hope we order a decent amount of them at least

    • Simply comparing F35 numbers ignores the 102 Typhoons in the RAF inventory. We do not have enough fast jets, but the RAF is still more capable than those you list.

      I agree that Tempest is desperately needed in greater number than the Typhoons they will replace. Given the age of Typhoon and likely Tempest delivery timescales, I fear the RAF will shrink further as older Typhoons are withdrawn from service. The RAF could do with F35A squadrons to bridge that gap. I had hoped that the investment plan would make such an announcement, but it seems unlikely given the lack of budget uplift.

      • I very much doubt that Tempest will be cheap enough to exceed the current stocks of Typhoon in terms of numbers.

        The future RAF combat air fleet will consist of a small core of manned Tempest jets, presumably about 100-150, alongside 70-100 F-35A/B, with a host of CCA.

        • I’ve hear more like 70 Tempests to replace the remaining Typhoons by the time they’re introduced. Would be surprised at more than 100

          • Leonardo expect an initial production order of about 300 airframes. I really doubt the Italians will be picking up the slack if we order just 70, so I think it’d be more reasonable to assume 130 for the Japanese, 100 for the UK and 70 for the Italians.

            But who knows?

          • All we know is that Edgewing have made a planning assumption that 350 Tempest aircraft will be ordered by 2035. They had to come up with some number in order then establish basic information such as unit cost. Maybe 100 will be for the RAF, but will probably be 2030 before that is certain.

          • “I’ve hear more like 70 Tempests to replace the remaining Typhoons by the time they’re introduced”

            Completely unestablished nonsense. The UK is nowhere near being able to size the eventual order.

      • I’d suggest a purchase of Typhoons to cover that gap.

        F35s do not come from a reliable ally, so my inclination would have been to keep the Typhoon production rolling, and not take F35s further – especially given the Block 4 chaos – until we know what is happening post-Trump, whether he has popped his clogs or is in a mental health facility for the criminally insane.

          • The RAF would welcome new Typhoons with open arms. After all the RAF is spending a huge chunk of its budget upgrading as many Typhoons as it can to the latest standard.

            But not if it meant a reduced or delayed Tempest.

      • Well, Japan has about 200 F15s and 91 Mitsubishis based on the F16. Add that to the 147 F-35 As and Bs makes that 102 Typhoons look a bit silly. Australia, Norway and the Netherlands have not been considered heavyweights as far as military power goes, but that’s changing.

      • We don’t need more Tempests than we do Typhoons, as long as they can control drones as advertised, and as long as the number of Tempests plus drones significantly exceeds the number of Typhoons we currently have.

        100 Tempests would be fine if we also had, say, 3-4 accompanying drones for each one. That should build up mass cheaper.

      • Whatever my reservations, we need to make that choice and soon, we can’t afford a large capability gap developing when we are already low on numbers, so decide on more Typhoons or/and more F-35s can’t just sit on our hands much longer.

      • Japan operates over 320 fast jets in total with @260 being front line.

        Australia operates 96 highly capable fast jets of which 72 are F35, with a population 1/3 that of the UK. The have got / ordered higher volumes of P8 and Wedgetail and are now ordering operational loyal wingmen aircraft having achieved key development milestones.

        Meanwhile RAF is stretched thin, needs additional Typhoon T4 and radar upgrades for T2 / T3 to maintain capabilities pending Tempest being available on mass.

      • Yes, but it may not be the best choice to help Denmark Friends to deter USA appetite for territorial expansion. What is the UK plan in that regard is a very good question… I don’t like the way things are going.

        • Doesn’t bear thinking about does it. Even my cynicism a year ago looks under estimation now. Will even Iceland be up for grabs?

          • Do we really want to ally with US on army material, do they really have to money from us on top of things when they behave this way against us… I think they should not. They just don’t behave like alies. They deal with us as ennemies and are ready to invade us as ennemies. This is problematic. I believe this is no longer an issue of technological prowess, this is about how they look at us, not as Friends, not even as canon fodder, but as target and sheep. Time to say their are no free lunch. I don’t think it will happen any time soon, in UK or Germany. France and smaller European nation are on their own against Tyranic behavior once again, and it’s not gonna be pretty.
            This sentence of Churchill, I whish he did never said it, especially considering what it entailed for Englismen psyche, a lack of right mindness over whatever come from out there. An impossibility to have it enter the field of the debatable… This is wrong, just wrong. And what they say can’t be accepted.
            Sorry, my english is not so good. I am not in position to rejoice about it. I thought European security would be build around France and UK against Russia. I did not expect attacks from USA. Now I see more and more clearly that will have to get ready on two front. Dark days are coming and they will become even darker.

          • Greenland by US and Svalbard by Russia !! Carriers and F35 / Rafael only European options for control of relevant airspace. ..especially Svalbard.

            European led QRA (cough ….training areas) could be established on Greenland and regular / rotational sub patrols would be a real deterrent

      • “A model is produced at a faster rate than B”

        What relevance is this to the rest of the discussion? It’s not even true. Yes, it takes longer to build an F-35B by a couple of months or so but that has zero impact on the ability of the UK to order more or less.

  4. Question is that 75 A’s and B’s or 75 B’s +12 A’s? If it is 75 in total that is not enough if the two carriers need to go to sea at the same time and we should no longer count on the USMC to make up the numbers.

  5. In one sense buying loads now that need an expensive upgrade to B4 standard makes sense.
    The limited weapons options means buying more might be pointless.
    Having so few will burn the fleet out more quickly but if you look at the F16, the A was a different beat than the various blocks of C. Presumably the F35 will get incremental models?

    Typhoon numbers are too low. Starmer just can’t give a toss about defence to order more.

    We need SEAD, anti ship missiles and more platforms for Storm shadow and Stratus.
    Pathetic really.

  6. Financially, Trident is killing defence. The best thing HMG could do is reverse the George Osborne decision taken in 2010 on nuclear costs.

    • Far from the only damage done by Osborne. The blame for the current sorry state of UK Defence can be firmly placed at the feet of him and Gordon Brown. Traitors both.

            • I cannot recollect if Trident’s reallocation into the Defence budget by Osborne into was in the Tory manifesto but , even if so , it was purely sleight of hand accounting to meet the NATO defence spend criteria. I cannot stand either Cameron or Osborne – a right pair of Oxford hooray Henry rich boys and the epitome of all that’s wrong with UK politics on the right, but even I think its a little tenuous to suggest the state of UK Defence is the British publics fault for voting in Cameron and Osborne at the expense of The Labour Party of Miliband & Corbyn.

    • If its removed which budget would the cost them be consumed out of? Defence would end up being reduced to cover it.

      Taking money from the NHS or Education to buy Nuclear weapons would not be a vote winner!

  7. To be expected: MoD incompetence.
    .
    .
    Add that to the decision to add F-35As at the expense of carrier deployable F-35Bs..
    .
    .
    Of course, it goes without saying, HMG also has no idea about defence too – Gone are the days when leaders came from a military background and had a set 🙃

          • RAF want Alpha rather than Typhoon as it is available now for delivery at a known cost and performance.

            They cannot order Tempest knowing either of those things now!

          • it is unfortunate the HMG and commenters cannot comprehend the utility of having the airwings for the CVFs over the light-blue taking the Goering stance (”if it flies”).
            .
            .
            The sooner someone in charge divests the F-35Bs from the junior service and assign it to the RN, the better.
            .
            .
            [The UK really missed a step not developing its own Sea Harrier replacement – Just another example of small mindedness and irrelevance].

            • I don’t think we missed a step. An evolved sea harrier still wouldnt vibe as capable as F35 and would not have the customer base to support us buying any more than we are planning. Reality is who’s picking the subsonic/low supersonic jump jet over the VTOL stealth fighter.

              • You are speculating that any Sea Harrier replacement would not have been as capable as the F-35. It would have come down to the the pound available and the requirements specification. It is that simple.
                .
                .
                I do recall (no references) talk of any replacement being supersonic, while any replacement one could expect would have been compatible with weapon systems in service and those in development (at the time Sea Eagle was a UK ASM), so it would be relatively safe to assume any replacement programme would have had guided strike munitions; while it should be noted the yank Strike Fighter (sic) is limited to iron bombs until SW v4 is available, and even then the UK will need to fork our hundreds of millions (conservatively!) to integrate weapons on a glacial delivery schedule. The point is, a UK developed replacement in hindsight would have been good bet, and given the competition (F-35) is much over-priced, one could expect exports (Spain, Italy, Japan, Thailand, Australia …perhaps not Turkey!) would be on the cards.
                .
                .
                The last point again, is, the UK missed that step, entered into the F-35 programme, paid for development then AGAIN dropped the ball and got itself booted as a Tier 1 partner. Just like the BIOT, the UK seems to like paying for something it hasn’t got (enough of).
                .
                .
                I laugh from afar at such stupidity.

                • Seriously suggesting we’d be able to make a stealth supersonic harrier alone? Dream on.

                  Why would any of those countries invest in an aircraft that would be more expensive and nominally less capable as warfare evolved without features like stealth.

                  A limited UK production would have massive cost and result in the factories shutting down afterwards.

                  • You forget which country provided the us with a a lot of research into stealth technologies, while noting a supersonic VSTOL Sea Harrier replacement would have evolutionally and not revolutionary, as you seem to think.
                    .
                    .
                    Stealth though is relative and isn’t the be-all and end-all; given that stealth in some spectra does not mean so in others [note the ‘coat hanger’ low band radars on the chinese destroyers would be used to do what the LW08/1022 transceivers did in the 1st gulf war]; while noting there are a number of 4/4+ gen aircraft which have had export success.
                    .
                    .
                    End of the day it is an academic exercise, as one [including yourself] cannot say what a Sea Harrier replacement might have looked like.

                • IMO the British Aerospace P1216 would have made a superb Harrier replacement. STOVL, supersonic capability a decade before the F-35B

  8. By then how old will the first ones delivered be? stop buying stuff from the USA they are over priced, they limit what we can do or weapons we can use on them and are very un reliable friends at the best of times.
    Might need them to defend Greenland from Trump, after all Norway is a better friend the USA, one we can count on in war, when did Norway drag us in to a war? or make up WMD’s? Drop a nuc on any one? etc, etc

    • Err… Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, not Norway.

      Unfortunately if the USA goes after Greenland, the rest of NATO can’t stop them militarily. But it would result in the USA effectively being thrown out of the alliance (something Trump seems ambivalent about) and the weakening of the USA in terms of having nations to back them up in a face-off against China. Though that being said, if China moves on Taiwan then I expect we’ll see more TACO 🌮

      • My mistake, still the same thing counts, the USA does what it wants and only cares about its self, and Trump never had a go at Russia invading Ukraine as to him International Law is for only non super powers to stick to.
        Hes a bully, a bigot and he crap on any one as and when it suits him, the world is in more danger from him than Russis or China. Out side of the old easten Europe Russia has never started a war, not siding with them but the Yanks are trigger happy and are school yard bullies.
        We sadly rely on them too much when they can not be trusted. All we are is some one sell stuff to at higher prices and get basing rights from. in return we buy thier over priced stuff, which they control and go in wars just be seen as a friend.

        • “Out side of the old easten Europe Russia has never started a war”

          Afghanistan 1979 springs to mind…

          and it’s certainly doesn’t mind getting involved in wars outside Europe, (eg Vietnam) or civil-wars (eg Syria).

          Russia is a land power, with relatively limited naval forces, so it’s only ever going to invade near neighbours.

          The USA only has two neighbours (both of which it has invaded at various points) but is the leading naval power. So the majority of its wars will be overseas.

          It’s largely due to geography 🤷🏻‍♂️

          • Yes Afghan but more of an intervention that went badly wrong, and yes Russia is not a navel power so it tends to fund wars or supply kit but not troops.
            The great USA and Russia/China have had may wars with each other on other peoples land, the big 3 really do what they want in the world. We have relied on the USA too much and it will take years to get out of every thing we need them for, they do not need us just our bases.
            Strange kidnap a countries leader and its all fine no one too up set or got the balls to say it.

            • Which countries has China invaded recently?

              The Vietnam scrap was several decades ago, since then it’s just been bullying Taiwan and The Philippines mostly…

              • Well does the USA bully any one with tariffs? changing the gulf of Mexeco, Kidnapping leaders. China has it invaded any one 70’s? not defending China merely saying in world who is the biggest bully?. Russia bullys its nabours as does China. The USA bullies the world with tariffs and has started a few wars and made up things to get us involved in a few wars.
                International law is for every countyry apart from those 3, Starmer quite as a churh mouse over the kidnapping of a countries leader even though he clearly knows it was illegal. As was flogging of an set of island to a nation that never wown them, i say flogging we paid them.

                • Starmer is keeping quiet because Trump is a vindictive child that is libel to lash-out in anger at anyone who criticises him. Unfortunately we’re more closely linked to the USA than any other European country, so Trump can inflict proportionately more damage upon us.
                  Starmer’s policy is to hunker-down and try and placate Trump until the USA gets a new president that isn’t bonkers.

                  • Hes a waek leader but sadly you are very right Trump gets up set very quickly and is like spoilt child. Strarmer is weak grey man who runs from any ballle unless its about civil rights in the UK and then hes all in if its any thing a bit mad or left.
                    Hidding from Trump and saying nothing although wet and weak is about the best he can do, Trump does what he wants as does China or Russia. That is the world order and we have long since not mattered.

                    • Politics, the art of the possible.

                      Every other country is in the same position, apart from China and Russia. Heck look how petrified Norway was of a backlash simply because Trump didn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize 🤦🏻‍♂️

              • Tibet (1950), India (1962), Vietnam (1979), Philippines (Ongoing)…

                It’s also constantly nibbling bits of land from Bhutan too, but they pretend it’s not happening for fear of provoking the Chinese.

              • Well and India, but these arguments do get rather circular. But of course their present very effective policy is to control economically, once they achieve that we will see how they play the military game. I would suspect that they will behave very similarly to the way Trump is doing now certainly if it feels beneficial. It will be transactional in nature I suspect, economic pressure with limited military action to up the threat. Few would resist and actually fight. It would be how the Ottomans exercised power over much more than ground they physically controlled. Britain did likewise as its Empire grew.

                If Trump’s real aim is to split the World three ways where does it all leave the rest of us is the big question between these three Imperial entities. Being ‘forced’ out of NATO by his actions might actually suit him or at least those like Miller who are the real power behind the throne. Be happy as before to sell arms to both sides I fear and makes our US weapons of limited value if they do indeed want a Triumvirate of World Powers to deal with. Russia and Europe fighting each other to virtual irrelevance might be seen as a long term advantage for them I fear. Madness perhaps but Trumps present policies are already mad beyond personal profit and power and he does love a big idea like the USS Defiant that no logical military expert source has supported so who knows.

              • In the SCS it’s invaded & annexed teritories of Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia etc, back up Myanmar junta waging war on ots own people, Tibet of course, couipkle of attempts at Vietnamn, several at India, opposed the UN in Korea, backed the genocide by the Khmer Rouge, tore upthe HK agreement & butchered many at Tienaman square.When it comes to the likes iof Russia, China & now Trump, ignore what they say & look at what they do.

  10. So if Trump’s America attacks/invades either or both Greenland and Canada. Do we
    1. Send UK forces to fight the Americans
    2. Seize and close all US airfields and assets in the UK i.e. Menwith Hill close to Harrogate, Mildenhall, Lakenheath and Fairford. I hope our MoD have a contingency for this.
    3. Cancel all F35 orders and other US weapons orders.
    4. Take part in trade sanctions imposed by much of the rest of the world against the US.
    5. How we maintain our CASD
    6. Go into cooperation, for the long term replacement of US SLBMs Trudent, with European partners – France, both Poland and Sweden are reported to be interested in going nuclear. A common submarine and land silo missile

    America is not our friend.

    • I had quite a fun conversation about this with Copilot AI yesterday to see what it said.

      It cautioned me to see the Americans as “unpredictable” rather than unreliable at this point. I disagree with that as the US military and US government seem to take unilateral action, and I wonder if Venezuela is a precursor for Greenland.

      Even with Brexit, we should have loudly announced that Britain is still a friend and military ally of Europe, we will co-operate fully on matters of European security, and of course we should probably have kept some options open in terms of buying European tanks and aircraft (including Typhoon).

      Having 75 F35s might be a great thing, provided their capabilities act as a force multiplier to a much greater extent than the Typhoon, but we should have that many already by now. It seems the Americans are having massive difficulties getting the F35s ready.

    • We will do nothing, but look upset and Starmer can fly off some where and hide and avoid any issues here for a bit long. We will just be powerless and Trump knows that. Europe as a whole will sound upset, but be careful not up set the USA, we will have a lot of meetings talk a lot but do nothing just like now.

    • 7. None of the above. There is too much reliance on the US to do anything meaningful.

      A few empty words is all we’ll be able to provide. Any wholesale move from US weapon systems will take decades and need to be done incrementally to avoid kneecapping our armed forces.

      The uncomfortable truth is that the US can annex Greenland if it wishes, and there is precious little the rest of NATO can do.

    • If Trump’s America attacks/invades either or both Greenland and Canada we should nuke Moscow. The rationale being that Trump is a Putin agent, and any attack by Trump’s America is an attack on NATO by Russia.

    • If we’re decent then if he does, 1 to 4. Otherwise we become complicit & will lose most our freedoms as Trump/Putin clones take over here. We must not stand by if our “special” friend goes rogue & starts cutting our allies throats. The USA never should have put us in this position. Our “leaders” should never have made us so weak, so reliant on the USA & on Chinese manufacturing.
      I’ve never seen anything that persuaded me Trump was anything except totally unqualified for any public office, let alone POTUS.

  12. I’m utterly bewildered by the timescale of this.

    By the time our purchase is complete, surely a number of F35s will be retired and our Typhoon fleet will have shrunk to such a point that the survivors are at the end of their service life.

    I doubt the Typhoons will be obsolete for a while as the Americans drag their feet over F35S and Tempest etc seem a long way off. It seems to me like we could have done with a whole new tranche of them, as we are likely to have quite an issue with the number of serviceable fighters over the coming years.

  13. Are we in danger in future years of seeing the RAF suffer the same issue that the Royal Navy currently faces? Namely the RN has LOTS of frigates in build at the moment, but it’s ancient existing frigates are having to be withdrawn sooner than hoped because of their state, resulting in a continual reduction in the number of frigates available.

    Could the RAF find itself with diminishing numbers of front-line fighters as Typhoons age and the inevitable development issues push back production manufacturing of Tempest. That gap could be filled by more F35s but production lots are booked-up years in advance, meaning that even if we decide to buy more we may have years to wait before delivery.

    It’s shameful and stupid that the situation was allowed to arise with the frigates. It would be criminal and outrageous if the same situation was allowed to arise with fighters.

    • It would hardly surprise would it! The RAF threw away around 200 combat aircraft without replacement the last 15 years. GCAP will now take all the Combat Air Budget apart from the extra F35 order.
      They have their excuses in though, just like the RN with their toy boats. Drones are the way to go.

      • Toy Boats and Toy Planes are the future, They will make a film and call it Toy Story.

        “To Infinity and beyond”

      • Despite not having a navy, Ukraine has sunk a large portion of the Russia Black Sea Fleet and frightened the remainder away from its base in Crimea with drone toy boats…

        • Of course, they have their uses, and they have used the autonomous attack boats to great effect in an enclosed sea.
          But, with respect, I suggest that UKR does not have a blue water navy, has no worldwide commitments like we do, and is not using the new tech as an excuse for either explaining away the reduction in the RN escort fleet from 35 to 13 as HMG does repeatedly, or dodging the issue full stop. I don’t think the 1SL is not talking about those autonomous speed boats we helped UKR create full of explosives either.
          Talking of the Bastion, I saw on X today a figure of 15 gliders have been acquired.

          • Yes the Ukraine only has a Black Sea coast with no global commitments. Which is why the U.K. has carriers, destroyers, SSNs, etc.
            Yes it’s f@cking annoying that we’re going to see a decline in frigates while the F26s and F31s are built. But thats spilt milk under the bridge to mix metaphors. It’s down to decisions made 10 to 20 years ago, and unless someone invents a time-machine there’s nothing can be done.
            UAVs can be produced faster, more, cheaply, and more numerous than frigates, so they’re an obvious band-aid. Ultimately they’ll be of greater use one the frigate fleet has recovered.

            I’m really surprised at you being on it Twatter/X. It’s a cesspit of conspiracy/ disinformation/ and rubbish.
            You’re one of the most sensible and informed commentators here, I honestly think you’re wasting your valuable time there.

            • Here here, yes It’s notable that DM, myself and a couple of others are sensible, informed and serious about all things defence related, It’s hard to understand the mentality of some members here at times especially with the entire World watching and waiting on every word in this comment section. I do wonder what the people at GCSEIQ and M5 (southbound) thing when they see such dribble being written on such an Important site. 🤔

              • Overall, regards X, I’d agree.
                There are always exceptions to the rule, though. Sir Humphrey
                ( Thin Pinstriped Line), UKAFC, so Gabs Blog, The other Chris, Britsky, Francis Tusa, Sky’s Deborah Haynes, Think Defence, I don’t see any of those as conspiracy rubbish. And I also follow the feeds of the MoD, CSOC, the services themselves, and a few others, just so I can see what spin they’re putting out, though I do find some morsals amongst the general stuff.
                And as I class myself as a researcher more than just someone with an interest, due to my endless studies and delving into the orbat and places, you’d be surprised what titbits you can find on such things as chat forums , Linkedin, and such, I’ve found certain places that way, idle chat of mere rumour that was fact. It’s why all theee services and the UKIC watch such forums to see what is said. Overall, yes, rubbish. But not always so.
                Back to the Escorts. Of course, this won’t change overnight. I’ve listed the slippery slope of decline here many times when posters blame one party, where both are to blame.
                Cheers.

    • Even if we had all the T26 & T31 delivered miraculously overnight, you couldn’t call 13 “lots” of frigates. The RN would still be dangerously below minimum peacetime numbers of escorts(inluding the 6 T45).

      • It’s been a long time since I did Maths at Uni, but I’m pretty sure 8 (Type 26s) + 5 (Type 31s) = 13.

        Whether 13 frigates and 6 destroyers is sufficient is another question entirely.

        Personally I’d order more Type 31s to increase fleet numbers. As the cost of a Type26 isn’t far off an Astute, I wouldn’t order more Type 26s and instead go for more SSNs. Unfortunately, our shipbuilding capacity is maxed-out for both surface and underwater vessels.

  17. Planning out to 2033 when this current apology for a Government will be gone long before then. We can only hope that Reform UK will take the defence of this Country seriously unlike the Current and previous Governments

    • Will there be any point in a defense budget when the government are Russian agents?
      They mainly want to boost the army numbers, presumably to round up anyone they do not like.

      • There perhaps needs to be a reckoning for those who have knowingly allowed the invasion of this country and dismantling of our armed forces, politicising of our police and criminalising free speech. All in all subversion, ineptitude and treason has taken over our public institutions?

        • That would of course be the Conservative party? Or perhaps Reform who are currently blocking Labour’s attempts to undo the Tory harm.

          • All of the above have happened under labour and Conservatives (the so called progressives). Reform with just 4 MPs can hardly be blamed unless of course you’re one of those ‘progressives’

        • Really? I’ve not seen any Russian landing-craft deploying heavily armed Russian soldiers on our beaches. Or are you anticipating our former American allies invading?

          As for the rest of your accusations, well that’s just ill informed bollocks. 🤷🏻‍♂️

            • You were the one falsely claiming an ‘invasion’. What I said may not make sense to a hysterical imbecile, but it does to everyone else.

              • The arrival of boat loads containing (>150,000) of fighting aged males could be described as an invasion. That’s not hysteria just fact. Clown.

                • The arrival of 150,000 working-age unarmed males is called illegal immigration.
                  Seeing them as an ‘invasion’ is just hysterical racism.

                  • It’s not racism it’s called common sense. Would you allow someone you didn’t know into your house? Unvetted fighting aged males inc criminal elements getting into this country is dangerous. You’re naive if you think that’s acceptable

                    • It is racism because you wouldn’t be making a fuss if they were white. Or in that 150k are you including Australians, Kiwis, and Canucks that have overstayed their visas in the UK?…
                      Thought not.

                      No I wouldn’t allow someone I didn’t know into my house. But if they tried to break-in I’d call the police as it’s a matter of illegality. I wouldn’t call Hereford and ask for the SAS to come-over.

                      Nations invade nations, not individuals.

                      I’m believe anyone illegally in the UK should be deported. But I’m not as paranoid and hysterical to think they’re a secret army being smuggled into the UK to take over the country as part of some big conspiracy. Which is where the ‘invasion’ tripe comes from.

                      You’re clearly off your meds.

                    • This Is going well, It’s good to see Important things being discussed and changes made.
                      Keep up the great work chaps 👌

  18. You are correct Greg. These figures have been officially announced and confirmed by MOD. It is a little surprising that so many of our fellows on here are still wresting with the figures and getting the wrong answer.

    By 2033,
    There will be 62 F-35B, no more.
    There will be 12 F-35A.

    Total 74.

    We cannot order more Typhoons or F-35s over the next 10 years because the Fast Jet budget only runs to 6 or 7 aircraft a year, so 60-70 new aircraft by end 3035.
    We currently have the equivalent of 59 on order:

    23 F-35B
    12 F-35A
    The equivalent of 24 ‘new” aircraft, due to upgrading the 40 tranche 3 Typhoon to take the ECRS radar and associated upgrades, which is reportedly costing more than £50m per aircraft, i.e. more than half the cosr of a new Tranche 3 Typhoon.
    = 59 aircraft from the budget

    And then the budget from 2033 onwards will need to go to serious funding of Tempest and CCA drones.

    In short, there is NO MORE MONEY for more F-35Bs to adorn the carrier. There has never been either plan or intent to have both carriers operational at the same time, there are not the escorts, SSN or RFA ships to support one carrier strike group, let alone two, there is not crews, there is no budget for more F-35Bs and even if there was, the preference would be for the longer range, double weapons payload, more capable, less troublesome to maintain and considerably less expensive F-35A.

    For those saying HMG must just find more money for defence they already have. £2bn this financial year, ending the March, £5bn over the coming year, £5bn the year after, so £12bn up to March 2028.

    That will take core defence spend from £60.2 bn in 24/25 to £73.5 bn in 2028/9. That is an 18% rise on paper, though the House of Commons Library says a 3.5% reall term growth., which I assume is per year adjusted for inflation (1).

    For any who wonder how we have gone from being the leading European combat air power in Cold War times to 5th of the top 5 today, there is an interesting fact in the HOC Library paper: ‘Defence spending fell by 22% between 2009/10 and 2016/17…’ It only recovered to 3010 levels in 2024. So the Conservative Government’s of the time took something of a holiday on defence and thus we have a big backload of elderly equipment, such as the 26 tranche 1 Typhoons withdrawn.

    (1). House of Commons Library, 10th October, ‘UK Defence Spending

    • I don’t disagree on the Carrier.. 62 odd carrier aircraft will do, but I think HMG MUST find more money for the fast jet budge.. they cannot keep running the number of typhoon squadrons with the present numbers… so I personally think they need the money to buy 20 more typhoons to keep 6 frontline squadrons running because at present there are not enough tranche 2 and 3 aircraft to run 6 front line squadrons and the Falklands flight.

      • British politicians are not interested in the country’s defense; perhaps they think that the USA will come to the aid in case of an attack on the country, which is not clear.

  19. Oh, I’m surprised. I perdonally find Hugo’s posts some of the more knowledgeable, accurate and consise. We don’t need that many comedians on here!

  20. With the US threatening an article 5 attack on Denmark to steal minerals from them why are we buying any weapons systems from them. Seems very short sighted to me

    • We need to wake up & smell the coffee. The USA make their bed but we do not have to lay in it. If Trump. MAGA & the Billionaire backers behind them want to drag the USA into full authoratarian facism we must cut loose or be dragged into hell with them. I hope & pray for better thing for the USA, but we must not give in to the current madness.

  21. CCA is the future for mass. Unfortunately we’re stovl, so I can see 12 f35 on a carrier with 24 Valkyrie type CCA. Probably the same with merlin/ proteus.

    • It’s a fair point. I recall Marham has only 2 HAS sites at present with 9 or 10 HAS each.
      But I recall only 3 front line Sqns planned now, so, rest on flight line, in depth maint, or store.
      I cannot see HMG creating a new MoB for the type, even though options exist.

  25. I don’t see the US invading Greenland, more likely some kind of deal will be made to lease the area like the Hong Kong / Diego Garcia 99 year lease arrangements.

  26. Would prefer to see a more proactive and assertive response from NATO Europe.

    A Typhoon ‘cold-weather training’squadron inserted there, with rotating flights from the 4 Euro Typhoon.nations (UK Germany, Italy and Spain). An Arctic warfare land training base, with rotating Alpine battalions from Italy, Germany and France. Anr Canada, the nearest neighboir. A European air defence destroyer, ASW frigate and submarine in the harbour. All under Danish command.

    Look America, we are taking care of the defence of the high North!

    If we in Europe do nothing but wring our hands and mutter, the pushy acquisitive Americans will be in there like a rat in a barrel of cheese.

    If all greedy Trump wants is to exploit Greenland’s potential mineral wealth, all Denmark need do is offer mining rights commercially, similar to us auctioning off parcels of the Noth Sea for oil and gas drilling. Quite a standard commercial way to do things, that the Trumpistas can hardly object to.

    It would need action this day though from CDS, FCD and our friends in Europe.

  27. For ‘consise’, read ‘concise’. This was a reply to someone above, but the replies often seem to end up in odd places…

  28. So we know the delivery schedule of F 35 out to 2033, we know the timescales of T26,T31, FSSS, and have a clear idea of AUKUS numbers, timing and likely cost. But still we don’t have the long awaited DIP. Why? Even if there are uncertainties around the future of Ajax, the rest of the 10 year equipment plan is pretty much locked in.
    The last 10 year plan in 2023 was virtually useless with different services costing on different bases. So we haven’t had a proper plan published since 2022.
    Like the last budget, this delay gives the impression that the government doesn’t know what to do.

    • Very good at doing impressions, this government. If you close you eyes and listen carefully you could almost believe they were as bad as they seem.

      I always guessed the DIP would be delayed, but all the noises now are pushing it towards March. I just hope it’s so they can sell February as a victory.

  29. All of this assumes that by 2033 we will still have a relationship with the US such that they are willing to continue selling the F-35, among other things. Besides, given that half the weapons we want to put on them are not yet integrated (and won’t be for years) our F-35 fleet is not the potent strike force it really ought be by now.

    • Well yes, but, but, but, when they deliver Block 4 we will all be sorted & that’s just around the corner don’t you know…..

  30. 75th in 7 years, wow!!!
    Am I the only one who finds the procurement schedule for F35s an utter disgrace, Challenger 3 delayed, new medium lift helicopter signing held up, Poseidon maritime patrol, wedge tail , new AWACs for the carriers
    Yet they don’t miss a trick in reminding us to prepare for war. You cannot warn us of the barbarians approaching the gate Meanwhile the MoD attitude seems to be , don’t do today what we can do next year , maybe.

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