UK explores possible future where Russia wins, China leads

The Ministry of Defence’s (MOD) newly released Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 outlines several possible future global scenarios, one of which envisions a world where Russia wins the war in Ukraine and China rises to global dominance, leading a new world order.

This potential future, among others explored in the report, highlights how global power dynamics could shift dramatically in the coming decades. These scenarios are part of a broader effort by the MOD to help policymakers prepare for an uncertain and volatile future.

Released on 27 September 2024, the 456-page document presents a range of potential futures. Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 describes key drivers of change and illustrates alternative future worlds to test planning assumptions and help decision-makers prepare for an uncertain world.

The Ministry of Defence are keen to note:

“The findings and deductions do not represent the official policy of the UK government or that of the MOD, but the findings will be considered as part of the Strategic Defence Review, which will make sure our Armed Forces are bolstered and that our country has the capabilities needed to ensure the UK’s resilience for the long term.”

The document indicates an abundance of opportunities, alongside new and existing challenges in the global outlook. Notable areas of potential future trends for Defence include:

• A highly uncertain future for Russia, with the outcome of its war in Ukraine and the implications of this being key to its future power and status.
• China will continue to use economic interdependencies, underpinned by military strength, as core means to achieve its objectives.
• In an age of increasing uncertainty, the need to build resilience, agility and new forms of deterrence will be paramount.
• An expansion in the number of nuclear-armed states fielding more powerful weapons, combined with new weapons of mass effect, could create new challenges.
• Military shaping power will remain one of the ultimate levers of power. Space and cyberspace will increasingly be a key factor in battlefield success.

In Pathway 3 – Changing Spheres of Influence, Russia’s victory in Ukraine acts as a key turning point, signalling a decline in Western power. The report suggests that China would seize this opportunity, strengthening its influence and leading a Eurasian bloc that could reshape global power dynamics. Although Russia’s success is not essential for this scenario, the MOD notes that “Russia wins the war in Ukraine” would highlight Western weakness and give China room to grow its global leadership.

The report outlines how “China becomes the biggest economy and the renminbi becomes the leading global currency,” displacing the US dollar and further diminishing Western influence. If China manages its domestic challenges and continues to grow economically, it could extend its reach through trade agreements and technological dominance, while Western nations struggle to maintain their social and economic stability.

Key indicators of this possible future include “emerging middle powers cooperate more closely with China” and “the US retreats from international institutions and its global presence declines.” The report suggests this would lead to a world where influence is divided into different spheres, with China at the centre of a new, more transactional global order.

In this future, China would successfully build a Eurasian bloc, leading a number of emerging powers. As the MOD notes, “China gains influence over a weakened Russia and succeeds in building a Eurasian bloc, involving a number of emerging powers, which then evolves into a new world order operating under strong Chinese influence.” Rather than simply replacing the US, this scenario sees a multipolar world emerge, where global power is distributed more evenly, and Western dominance fades.

The report does point out that, even under this scenario, “other powers will still act in their own interests.” The future described here is not one of ideological alignment but of pragmatism and transactional relationships, where countries seek their own advantages within a shifting global framework.

Global Strategic Trends also highlights that this scenario would not bring global stability. Instead, competition would grow across different spheres of influence, with military and technological power becoming increasingly important. The development of Chinese-led military alliances and advances in space and cyberspace warfare would present new challenges to global security. As the report warns, “Military shaping power will remain one of the ultimate levers of power,” and technological superiority would be critical in future military engagements.

This edition of Global Strategic Trends is the MOD’s seventh in a series that has been running for over two decades. The aim is to help policymakers avoid making decisions based on outdated assumptions. The report stresses that “Without context, there is a risk that planners, policymakers and capability developers will assume a future that conforms to preconceived ideas and assumptions.”

Beyond the scenario where Russia wins and China leads, the report explores several other futures shaped by different global forces.

• In Pathway 1 – Existential threats drive a new multilateral accommodation, global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and organised crime push states to cooperate. The scenario imagines a new multilateral order where global cooperation becomes essential to tackle these existential threats.
• Pathway 2 – The current system endures in a multipolar world sees the US, supported by its democratic allies, maintain its global leadership. In this future, democratic societies remain attractive, and despite rising competition, global conflict is avoided, allowing the current international system to continue.
• Pathway 4 – Competition and decoupling leads to conflict and a deglobalised world foresees rising tensions and competition for resources. Trade wars, protectionism, and the decoupling of global value chains lead to a devastating regional conflict, resulting in the collapse of the current international order.
• Pathway 5 – Incremental instability leads to a new networked order describes a world where state governments struggle to address creeping crises, leading to instability. In this scenario, non-state actors, such as corporations and powerful cities, rise to fill the void left by faltering governments.

These scenarios highlight the unpredictability of the future and the complex forces at play. The MOD’s analysis urges policymakers to prepare for a range of potential outcomes, reminding them that no one can predict exactly what the world will look like in 2055.