The UK Ministry of Defence has acknowledged the growing challenges facing submarines in an era of rapid technological change, following comments from Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee, commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, who warned of a likely future where oceans become “effectively transparent and submarines are no longer allowed to hide.”
In a written question to the House of Lords, Liberal Democrat peer Lord Lee of Trafford asked the government to assess Topshee’s remarks. Responding on 29 September, Defence Minister Lord Coaker said:
“We recognise that there are increasing threats to maritime security, including the underwater battlespace, from technological change and the proliferation of advanced capabilities. Assessments of these threats directly inform how we pursue technological advancements across all domains, including in the way we design, build and operate our submarines, to ensure the effectiveness of our capabilities in complex and challenging environments.”
In addition, the Defence Committee was recently told that short-term pressures on U.S. and UK submarine fleets could complicate the delivery of AUKUS commitments, particularly the planned Submarine Rotational Force-West in Australia.
Giving evidence on 9 September, Dr Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute outlined the geopolitical trade-offs facing the trilateral pact.
He told MPs that “in the relatively short term, there are real geopolitical trade-offs that the pact, and meeting its terms, entails. Getting past that short-term period of uncertainty will be absolutely critical.”
Dr Kaushal highlighted the limits of U.S. capacity to operate in two major theatres simultaneously. In the Indo-Pacific, he noted, the U.S. faces China as “an economic peer and arguably an industrial superior” for the first time, while also confronting a “trough in capability” as older attack submarines are retired faster than new Virginias can be built.
For the UK, he said, this coincides with the strengthening of Russia’s Northern Fleet, including the growing availability of Yasen-class submarines. That development, he argued, will drive demand for Astute-class submarines in the Atlantic at the same time as London is expected to commit an Astute to the Indo-Pacific rotation.
“There will be serious questions, particularly given issues around the readiness of the UK’s SSN fleet, about whether a rotational deployment in the Indo-Pacific is viable,” he told MPs. Failure to deliver, he warned, could undermine AUKUS domestically in Australia, while success would represent a major draw on UK assets in the North Atlantic.
Committee member Fred Thomas MP raised the broader question of U.S. expectations, recalling that during a recent visit to Washington the Committee was told by Pentagon officials that the priority was for Britain to “take care of Europe and the High North.”
Dr Kaushal indicated his agreement, underlining the strategic dilemma facing the UK as it balances commitments under AUKUS with its role in countering Russian naval activity closer to home.
The Russians have been dealing with this threat for years by the use of Bastions. The UK could and would do the same probably in the area it already trains in around the western isles.