The British Ministry of Defence has released an update on the escalating conflict in Ukraine, dated June 18, 2023, which indicates that heavy fighting has been persistent, especially in certain regions.

According to the intelligence report, the most intense bouts of fighting are centred in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and around the city of Bakhmut.

The update states, “In recent days, heavy fighting has continued, with the most intense combat focused in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and around Bakhmut.”

Ukrainian forces appear to be on the offensive in these areas, making modest territorial gains. The report notes, “In all these areas, Ukraine continues to pursue offensive operations and has made small advances.”

The update also provides insight into the situation in the southern region, where Russian forces have been actively engaging in defensive operations, which are described as relatively effective. Moreover, both parties are incurring high numbers of casualties.

The UK Defence Intelligence suggests that the Russian forces’ losses might be at their most substantial since the pinnacle of the conflict for Bakhmut in March, stating “Both sides are suffering high casualties, with Russian losses likely the highest since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March.”

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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160 COMMENTS

  1. I’m wondering when the Ukrainians will pick there main focus of advance and break through, I still expect a drive south east to the coast and a pivot into Crimea.

    If the Russians loose the Crimea, they may as well call it a day and withdraw.

    I do worry about their little side deal of providing nuclear weapons to the Belarusians, one wonders if they will persuade those idiots to target Kiev with Moscow saying
    “nothing to do with us mate”

    I wonder what NATO would do then???

      • I hope it’s not behind the kids old bikes, right pain in the arse to get too, does it look like the bat phone?

      • The westerm world needs to accept that Crimea is Russia, and Russia needs a land bridge from the mainland to it, through Ukraine. That is the real reason for the special military operation. Ukraine alone will not be able to stop this, no matter how many western weapons are supplied. A new world order is emerging, with the east becoming increasingly powerful. Sanctions against Russia are doing nothing other making Russia stronger, more resilient, and closer to China. NATO have failed, Belarus is now a nuclear power. What should of happened was a no fly zone enforced as soon as the build up started.

        • Do behave comrade🙄 crimea is an illegally occupied territory of a sovereign state! Belarus has no more control of those nuc,s than I have! Back to your handlers and try again.

        • Interesting take on it, tell me, do actually believe the Neo Nazi propaganda you are writing, or are you just writing down what the screaming voices in your head dictate….

          It’s a fair question, as you would actually have to suffer form a serious delusional disorder, like your little big man ‘dear leader’ Putin….

          Russia is utterly screwed, a washed up ex superpower, an alcohol fueled failed state that’s rapidly becoming China’s bitch….

          Go share a bottle of vodka with John in Minsk…

        • The Russians need to accept the vast majority of the Russian federation don’t want to be in Russia . Kiev was a city long before Moscow! Russia will break up after being defeated or settling for a draw after peace talks on Ukraine terms .

          • Exactly Peter. The pessimists here in the west and further abroad present Russia has having a solidity it just does not have. True, many other countries have unsettled issues but none pretend they don’t as apologists for Putin tend to do for Russia.

        • hahaha. There is a part of me that wants to believe that no thinking person believes any of what you just wrote here but you never know. Regarding Belarus, stationing nuclear weapons there is just Russia basically declaring that it controls Belarus militarily if it didn’t already. Having nuclear weapons in Belarus does not change anything strategically and shows more recklessness and desperation from Russia. Regarding China, Russia and China are not friends, they don’t trust each other and this current partnership does not bode well for future Russia. Russia is now the junior partner in that arrangement and it’s only a matter of time before it becomes a vassal state of China economically.

          • China & Russia have one common goal, to remove US influence upon their political decision. That is enough to unite them. I don’t agree with anything I post really, I am playing agent provacteur….trying to see the world through Russian eyes.

          • You’re just playing Jim’l fix it! Yawn very similar excuse as our other sad Russian troll! Big test, condemn the illegal Russian invasion by Putin and call him a nonce nobber?

          • Ah but Prince freaky Andrew is under scrutiny by the free press, your gangster nonce pal isn’t is he, as they are not able to! Under real scrutiny Putin Hitler would be as bad as your pal Jimmy.

          • Here you go: I condemn the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine. I also condemn the illegal invasion of Iraq by the UK/US.

          • Me too, well done, now is Putin a nonce nobber in your opinion? We may be getting somewhere here my old China.

          • Bet that’s easy, seeing the world through Russian eyes. Being as your eyes are most likely Russian. And if not, at least Russian rose tinted.

          • Frost China & Russia combined don’t have anywhere near enough power to remove any American influence ! Putin had to take in on ‘the chin when Turkey shot down the Russian fighter jet . The Royal Navy .US Navy. Jap Navy not long ago sailed right past China with a serious force strike group China couldn’t do anything about it but talk BS. . The only realistic threats China and Russia can offer is propaganda trying to effect elections and create mischief within our western countries . China will be hoping for a huge collapse in Russia then a possible snatch of Russian federation land China in the future seeing how weak Russia really is will be a very aggressive noisy threat to moscow.

        • What’s it going to feel like when the Chinese start telling you what you can and can’t do and you do what your told? And please don’t say like USA and Britain as we often have the same interests, so it’s going to be Russia BIG country little influence.

        • A very pessimistic view. Your thesis is that Russia must have Crimea. Why? On the other hand a no-fly zone was the answer this time last year. Why? Belarus having nuclear weapons is relevant in what way? What would the impact of a Russian ‘victory’ look like for the prospects of that country except in ways more disastrous than now? Meanwhile a vast ‘coalition of the willing’ has been formed against Russia, and the objective of ‘pushing back NATO’ that Putin shared with the world has backfired. Geopolitically and strategically by any objective assessment the position has moved away from both Russia and its new best friend, Xi’s China. The economic consequences are going to present themselves with even more force as time passes and the west responds. The most economically significant part of the global economy is swivelling away from both. The greatest weapon the west possesses is its historically unprecedented agility to deal with crisis and inherent potential. Russia nor China (or any other single party state) has had this quality. Change in those societies leads always to collapse and chaos.

        • Oh my! By that comment and calling it a special military operation confirms your Jim’l fix it badge is pinned on your board! Confirmed sad troll, but never mind eh, I’m sure you will try to prove your a man in other practical ways.

          • Why do you keep on mentioning “Jim’l fix it”? Do you share a lot in common with him? What is it with the UK, you all love the Royal family and shout God Save the King, yet his brother should be in jail. Tell me do you condemn the illegal invasion of Iraq, or was it a “special military operation”?

          • First I’ve always condemned the illegal invasion of Iraq, take some time and have a look at my previous posts, second by supporting this illegal invasion of Ukraine shows you have much in common with old Jim, third, you still have not condemned the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Putin! Over to you my troll….

          • Oh, and I’m not a big fan of the extended royal family, my naughty republican side! So, Maybe try again in your rather weak response, maybe a response which will have an impact as opposed to a damp squib! Good troll, it’s hot, that lead must be chafing on your neck.

          • You just don’t understand Frosty. Most people do not really care about the royal family, least of all sweat boy prince Andrew. So your comment has no bite whatsover, and no relevance to the destruction of Ukraine. many condemn the Iraq war, it’s called a democracy where people oppose things and don’t agree. That war finished Tony Blair forever, and when people are not happy they vote people out. But as stupid as your eggs v eggs comparison is, let’s just address that Iraq comment, the invasion of Iraq was not for land conquest and not for the enlargement of the USA or Britain, whereas the Ukrainian invasion was, big bloody difference frosty, now is Putin a nonce nobber?

          • Boom 😂👍 Don’t hold your breathe for a response! To call Putin a nonce nobber he has to flag it up to head sheds, who may authorise its use, only once, to gain credibility for “operational reasons”…….

          • Thanks for the link, but, sorry, I glazed over after I read “growing numbers of Western experts are predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation itself”. Well a growing number of experts in China and Russia are thinking similar things about NATO. The only solution is a NATO enforced no fly zone over Ukraine.

          • First, you are side stepping the issue, not very well, but marks for trying.

            We Brits can choose to distain our Royal family as we wish and no one will poison us, arrange for us to fall out of a window or victimise our children. Lots of people agree Prince Andrew is a bad lot and say so. They likewise will not suffer ‘accidents’ with tea cups or windows. A growing number of experts in China and Russia are mere parrots who dare not say anything to counter the official narrative unlike here in the west. If they ever do they will meet with accidents like tea cups and carelessly left open windows.

            Iraq? Iraq invaded and raped Kuwait, fellow Arabs. Almost the entire United Nations politely asked them to leave. Ring any bells?

            Advice: Don’t keep digging if you find yourself in a hole.

          • I am sorry you think Mr Blair was correct about WMD. Perhaps Iraq did in fact have missiles that could reach the UK? Anyhow Iraq is now a better place right? US/UK created a power vacuum that spawned terror. The fact is, the democracy in the UK is thin. There is nothing between Labour and Conservative. The British people are oppressed, where freedom is being eroded. There is cctv everywhere, knife crime on the rise, no one is allowed to truly express their views any longer. Nobody in the House of Lords has anything in common with the common man. The UK has been a downward slope since the 70s, Brexit took it to a whole new level. America says jump, you do it.

          • Hi Frosty, trading insults will not help so I’ll just correct you to help you understand about the UK as I suspect you have never been to Britain. This is the home of democracy and parliament rules here, not the royal family and not the House of Lords (which has no power as it is just a revising chamber). People are voted to Parliament where all decisions are made, anyone can stand to be an MP.
            The House of Lords makes no decisions. In terms of us being a democracy, thats has not changed at all. We have a very long history of being a democracy, Look at how many countries were a democracy at the outbreak of WW2, very few. I bet that whatever crud country you come from it is not a democracy or not long been one. Britain still has one of the biggest GDP in the world so it’s not really on the decline in the way you try to suggest, in the end the culture you you enjoy will be from Britain and the language you have had to learn my friend, is our language English.

          • I find his posts and weak responses sadly amusing, it’s hard to find such delusional and ignorant trolls/commentators who are so desperate in their efforts at supporting Putin and Russia yet to afraid to blatantly say so! Always look forward to his amusing replies. If desperation had a smell…..😂👍

          • Thanks for the kind words Mr. Borne, I am happy I bring you joy. Isn’t it amazing that we can all connect. On our Chinese phones, our Chinese keyboards, our Chinese microchips. What is it you make in the UK again? How is life in Brexit land, enjoying being self reliant and paying double? What the hell has Nigel Farage done to your country.

          • And yet we see NATO is stronger than ever with one and soon another new member🙄 you really are good at contradicting posts aren’t you? One minute your ‘seeing ‘ the Orc side and then the other🤔

          • NATO has failed Ukraine. They are victims of Russian aggression, and NATO just watch. Yes of course the weapons supplied help prolong the war, but they will not ensure victory for Ukraine, only direct NATO intervention will. This needs to start with the enforcement of a no fly zone over Ukraine.

          • And I see you ignored Jackos information that Putins illegal invasion has strengthened, enlarged and ensured NATOs TTPs are getting reviewed and updated! Cheers Putler and his Nazis, done more for NATO than any of us could have hoped!

          • Yes, they will, as politics and military advice from subject matter professionals is very different, and, out of interest what nationality are you?

          • You might have already said but which country do you come from? It must be awfully nice in your paradise! I mean costs half of what we pay got to be good hasn’t it. Funny isn’t it yet over here in NI we get people coming up from the south on booze trips cause it’s cheaper,people who live south of the border but work here love their NI number better than paying for health care down south!

        • If land bridges are all the rage, then why not a land bridge to Kaliningrad? Or should I say konigsberg but with Germans removed. Or would that mean attacking an NATO country. We all love land bridges, why not a land bridge for USA to connect Alaska, attack Canada as after all its people are also English speaking so should be part of USA. so let the tanks roll into Alberta. I need a land bridge, can I have one too?

          • The fate of the Crimea is what will decide the new world order. The Kerch Bridge is not the solution. Can anybody see beyond the war?

          • Fuck me top yawn that one! At least Frosty the sad snowman condemned the illegal invasion of Ukraine (but still not allowed to personally critique head Nazi Putin) unlike your lack of condemnation. You have zero credibility, but at least your amusing.

          • John stop talking to yourself, I know it’s the only way you’ll get away with a conversation the doesn’t demand that you denounce Putin and his invasion, but it’s pathetic, even for your sorry troll ass.

          • I find it most amusing he cannot criticise Putin, as he is a 76 year old, living in good old Blighty, MK, in spitting distance of the grand union canal, with a history of being a pad brat with parents in the RAF! And he can never condemn this horrendous illegal invasion of Ukraine by Putin and even state Putin is a bell-end. He is at least amusing, along with our new “random” new troll Frosty the fuckwit! 👍

          • I don’t even bother reading his responses anymore, it’s entirely predictable what they will be:
            Anti-West, Pro-Russian dribble, “critcal” analysis of Kyiv (which he’ll spell Kiev), and swallowing Putins BS whole, and then a claim of being “the only balanced one.” I bet he even believes the single image of a damaged Leopard Moscow keeps parading from different angles represents the entire Ukranian stock.

            I do hope one day he’s found lying under a window where he deserves to end up.

          • You are massively overplaying Russia, this is not a defining moment in history, some great pivot where Russia and China create a grubby new order and the west are reduced. Nothing will change after this my friend , except the unbearable shame that will follow every single Russian for generations, and the millions of collective muttered apologies they will make to anyone who mentions this crime, in order to distance themselves from it. But for now, you jolly it along and say it is something else, when really it is just a simple straight forward invasion to rule another country.

          • Actually I have to say I am quite hoping it will turn out to be a defining moment in history. From a certain perspective the Ukrainians are draining the pus from a Russian abscess which began when the Bolshevist infection took root after 1917. Let’s be clear, its Ukrainians who are making this sacrifice for all of us. We must do all we can to make sure they succeed. When the infected tissue is cut out the world will be a better place and the Russian people can heal too,

          • Having seen Ukrainian people defend themselves and having met them over here now, I have nothing but admiration.

          • You have outdone yourself this time haven’t you! Is it the west that is wantonly trying to bomb a country back to the Stone Age? Even if and this is a very big IF the orcs prevailed in this madness how on earth would you expect a country of 40m to just accept Pootins rule with a shrug of the shoulders and except what he has done to their country and people? In theory Ukr won’t even have to go into Crimea,get to the northern border cut the Kerch bridge and due to Pootins stupid act of blowing the dam Crimea will whither on the vine with no water and supplies getting in! So in effect Pootin has already sealed the fate of Crimea!

          • Oh dear,avoiding the civilian infrastructure that’s why any ‘liberated’ village has been wiped off the map! have you seen any of the heavy brigades being used yet? All small unit tactics at the moment. As for being a fortress well now they are in Storm Shadow,HIMARs and the GLSDB range. As is likely when the F16s turn up you can add JDAM to the mix as well. By your continuing support of Pootin you really are showing what an absolute arsehole you are!(not a compliment)

          • Crimea is russian? Ask Denys on YouTube who was born and brought up in Crimea. Watch the video when he states out of over 50 people he was friends with only 2 were happy with Russia coming 2014.
            Watch some of the videos smuggled out (yes smuggled as Russia doesn’t allow free speech) saying they voted to with Russia but have lived to regret that. A zoo keeper, an guy that worked at an animal sanctuary, a dinner lady and a teacher were among some describing the situations they have found themselves in.
            The quicker some sensible presidents who understands free and fair elections gets power in Russia the better.
            The world is a much better place when we all work together.

        • Then next step: Russia ‘needs’ a land bridge to Kalinigrad. WW3. Or perhaps someone should give nukes to Ukraine to replace those they gave up. You know, because states including Russia guaranteed that Ukrainewould be safe from invasion? And of course, every treaty Russia ever signed is invalid because – get this – Crimea is Ukranian. The USSR gave Crimea to Ukraine back in 1954!
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Union

    • The rhetoric in Russia is already changing. The state TV channels are discussing what victory looks like, and it is nowhere near their lofty ambitions at the start of the war. They have also amazingly concluded that they have demilitarised Ukraine, after all it is now mainly NATO weapons being used. It seems they are searching for an equilibrium, one they can sell to the populace.

      if Ukraine was willing, the war could end with the cementing of lines pre-Feb 2022. Russia will say missions accomplished, especially if Ukraine isn’t allowed to join NATO. If NATO provides what Ukraine needs to push Russia out completely, then who knows what will happen as the power balance in the Kremlin shifts. We are then in dangerous territory and perhaps that is one step too far for the west. We’ll see.

      I can’t imagine a scenario though where Russia retains the backing, or at least supposed neutrality, of China and India if it uses nukes.

      • I don’t think Ukraine will accept anything less than a full withdrawal from its internationally recognised sovereign territory as an end of hostilities.

        If the Russians loose Crimea, they have no capacity to take it back, their military capability is so degraded and getting worse, while Ukraine is going the other way, capability, with Western equipment and just as important, the training and western tactics that go with it.

        There are many dangers ahead, Putin’s mental condition as he starts to loose is a major concern, one wonders if his senior military head shed will blindly follow his orders….

        If he goes, what happens next in Russia?

        • Personally I hope Ukraine push them out, but politically I can’t see the US funding that type escalation. Definitely not if they haven’t got it done by the next election. Let’s hope the current offensive can make significant breakthroughs.

          • It’s only a hand full of barking mad extremist Putin puppets in the Rebulocan party and a couple of cranks in the Dems making all the noise about stopping funding.. 85% in both parties support the funding .whoever wins the election the President will have to conform with the 85%. Remember Trumps talk before he won the election scrapping Nato and the F35 program all utter BS to bring in the Converted Putin crank vote loony people… Americans who had been brainwashed with Russian and Chinese social media fake news and propaganda.

      • Agreed. Leave Crimea, retake the mainland to the initial jumping off points in Feb 22. Pushing too far might well fail us all.

        I wonder if the MoD use Denys Davydovs daily video updates, they say much the same thing!

        • Daniele Imo Crimea will have to be taken back by the Ukraine or this storey going to happen time and time again but I agree taking back Crimea could end up with loony Russian coward midget using a tactical Nuke that’s the real danger . But I also believe something serious will eventually happen down that Nuke line if this Crimea fire not put out for good this time round catch 22 .

          • Exactly. One can push too far, in all areas of life. I hope Ukraine think very carefully on this and not end up losing everything, that is, both nations irradiated and much of Europe.
            Over a piece of territory both sides can live without, and for Ukraine already long lost before Feb 22 and over which there is claim from both sides.

          • Hi M8, You are on same page as myself and I know you love a few stats and a bit of analysis. Have a wee look at what I have put further down. You may find it interesting.
            On a far more important note my 1st Raspberries of the year are sat in the fridge 🤣

    • I think that there has been one overlooked consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that is that Russia, having failed to subjugate and take over Ukraine, has instead effectively invaded and taken over Belarus.

      • That is exactly what has happened. Belarus is now a nuclear power, under total Russian control. The West have been utterly powerless in preventing this.

        • Very true, they have effectively been a Russian puppet state since 1991, a northern buffer for Russia against the West.

          Putin was obviously hoping to do the same in Ukraine, no doubt followed by Georgia.

          Since it’s Ukrainian adventure has gone spectacularly wrong, it’s absolutely ensured that at least Belarus is fully controlled.

          I fear for Georgia next, as they will likely also apply for EU and NATO membership.

          The only thing in their favour is Russian military capacity is severely damaged.

        • You misunderstand/misrepresent the facts. Belarus is not a nuclear power. It was always a Russian vassal state, but now Russia has invaded and has garrisoned its troops and nuclear weapons there. Belarus has no control over them nor any command authority.

        • Yes I know, but it is a depressing moment in history. Another state now has nuclear weapons on it’s soil in Europe.

        • ‘The West have been utterly powerless in preventing this.’

          Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. If Putin’s ‘war aim’ was pushing NATO back, i.e. getting nuclear weapons from off his (sic) borders, this is a really stupid action. It only underlines to the wavers, if any still exist in the frontline, just who they are up against. In geo-politics you must never take a step that means self destruction if you have to step back from it. Putin get more stuck with each passing month.

        • Nuclear host rather than a nuclear power, but it’s all academic really, it’s basically Russia anyway and makes no difference in the scheme of things. A move designed to look more profound than it actually is.

      • I don’t see that there has been any great change in the status of Belarus or its relationship with Russia. It was a vassal state and remains so. No ‘takeover’ was ever needed.

      • Talking of attempted regime change, the Russian Neo Nazis attempt in Ukraine isn’t going well is it, any possibility of your unreserved condemnation of the Russian invasion yet John in Minsk?

        We’ve been waiting a year and half you know?

        • Accurate and unbiased, you say, calling an invasion of vodka soaked rapist murdering Russians ‘Neo Nazis’ is I believe accurate John, did I miss something, thieves perhaps???

          We can live harmony when you and your basement work colleague Frost002 condem the Russian administration for invading a sovereign independent Country…..

          I know, difficult to condem when the MSB are monitoring your every thought, better to fan Kremlin propaganda than have an AK74 placed in your hands and get shot to bits by Ukrainians I guess.

          You and your mate are pitiful creatures, just drones really.

        • “I love the patience, tolerance and general welcoming of different views on this site. Add that to accurate. unbiased comments…”

          Yeah. Just the kind of thing you’d find in Putins Russia as evidenced by the hundreds of political prisoners locked up without trial. The ones who haven’t been murdered.
          You misread an awful lot.

        • You possess none of the qualities you claim but then you have the prefect defence. You don’t believe a word of what you write.

      • Ah Sergei, you forgot to answer the question I asked you earlier…

        I’ll ask again.

        Just how in denial of facts do you have to be to overlook the nakedly expansionist aims of Russia’s invasion, its promotion of a narrow ethnic Russian nationalist agenda, the harassment, imprisonment, torture and murder of political opposition, the constant aggression against neighbours, the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, the casual, summary rape, torture and execution of Ukrainian civilians, the abduction of children, the filtration camps, the use of proxy, extremist militias, punishment without trial, torture, imprisonment and warcrimes etc. And then somehow conclude that it is Ukraine with its democratically elected government and Jewish president that is nazi ?

      • Telling isn’t it how autocratic regimes are so terrified of and intolerant to the expressed will of the people….

      • People wanting the same rights and prospects that you enjoy (perhaps) is ‘regime change’ – of course it is, since no better possibility beyond gangster statehood exists! When are you moving to Belarus?

    • Ukraine would need to make their gains in south east more secure before concentrating on the south West and Crimea. They wouldn’t want to get hit on their sides or from behind by Russian forces. Diversions, distractions all part of tactics of both sides. Hope Ukraine can break through to the Asov and split the Russian forces in two. Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦!

    • Yes and for Ukraine to capture the ground across to Mariupol makes it difficult for Russia to hold Crimea. If Crimea is recaptured, I don’t see how Putin can stay in office.

        • Very true but Putin stands to be the victim of his own propaganda. If his ‘3 day special military operation‘ ends in him having to give back land that he stole before, I don’t see that going down well in Russia.

    • If it went nuclear NATO would do nothing, they have already decided not to get involved beyond equipment support. Going in after it’s gone nuclear would risk russia nuking them, since once you have made the call once the second time will be a lot easier.

      However the odds of Russia doing it are close to zero as it would mean no climbing back from it. I still think Russia’s game plan is to take as.much land as they can and then try and arrange a peace deal that involves the west lifting sanctions and more importantly releasing their oligarchy money, which would be a hard sell if it went nuclear.

      I am also curious what is going on with the counter attack, it’s not the style we were expecting. Distributing it across many fronts seems suboptimal, but it’s possible they have had to as they couldn’t find an attack vector that is weak enough to go all out on.

    • Somehow I doubt that Russia has ‘given’ nukes to Belarus. More likely they have based some nukes in Belarus that can be used by Belarus if Russia wants – same as some German aircraft are nuclear capable and can use US nukes when the US wants thewm to. Nukes are no good without the relevant security codes, Russia isn’t going to give them up!

    • I don’t think any nukes have been moved to Belarus more Putin bluff Yanks UK and France will be monitoring every move .

      • I just cannot see Russia withdrawing from Crimea. I can’t see Ukraine taking it back by force alone. The West has a choice, which is let Ukraine join Nato and enforce a no fly zone. Why do Nato stand by and watch Russia invade Ukraine and allow Russia to position nuclear weapons in Belarus? Nuclear deterence is failing the innocent civilians in Ukraine. Nuclear deterence only protects the civilians of Nato member states and Russians. The UN also is a failing organisation as it has zero influence upon the actions of nuclear states. A no fly zone is not a direct attack on Russia and I don’t believe it would escalate into nuclear war.

    • JC wrote:

      “”I’m wondering when the Ukrainians will pick there main focus of advance and break through, I still expect a drive south east to the coast and a pivot into Crimea.””

      If looked at from above we see 3 main attack points.
      https://i.postimg.cc/kGyqG2KZ/Untitled-1.jpg

      How I see things, from right to left
      1) Used as a blocking force
      2) To run riot and drive for the coast and to be used as support for serial 1
      3) Used as a blocking force and also if possible, drive for the coast
      Not mentioned above, the Ukrainians have crossed from Kherson and landed on the opposite bank taking control of land the Russians vacated, due to the belief that flooding the area would secure their back.

        • I totally concur Farouk, loose Crimea and it’s really all over for Ivan, it’s the only strategic objective worth having for Russia really, if it’s gone, they won’t be able to retake it and it’s effectively game over.

          • If and when the land and Kerch bridge are cut Crimea and the Orcs will be truly up the creek without a paddle🤞

          • I think we will know if it’s definitely the Crimea, if they leave the Kerch bridge alone.

            I suspect they will leave a line of retreat for the Russians. Use it as a pressure release valve as taking large numbers of Russians prisoner might seriously inflame the situation.

            Only if massive reinforcement comes from the bridge will they knock it out. I think the Ukrainians are well aware that loosing the Crimea is unthinkable red line for the Russians and some sort of extreme reaction could well be provoked.

            From an international perspective, it will be the most dangerous point of this dreadful period.

            They will destroy the bride after Ivan’s been dislodged

          • Be nice to see Russia send massive reinforcements over the 19 Km long kerch bridge and have the Ukrainians destroy one end, followed by the other end.

    • Russia could try for something again once its rebuilt its forces helped with restocking with more modern equipment and lots of it from its “friends”.

      • Well if you mean China I don’t think that’s on the cards as modern Chinese maps have the original Chinese names for Siberia on them! They just might play Russia at their own game over reclaiming lost territory.

  2. Realistically we can only offer the Ukraine our support. We have a lot of kit in the UK that will probably never be used again. Supply it now. The Ukrainians are fighting for themselves certainly but also for the future of Europe. Probably even for the people of Belarus in the longer term.

    • You are quite right. The Russian air force in particular has shown itself to be quite disorganised and ineffective. I don’t think it is the equipment, rather the tactics and procedures that are at fault.

      • 50-60 hrs per annum, fuck me those morons have mastered take off, fly in a line and try not to crash on landing! The rest, ie fighting their platforms, is none existent!

  4. Heavens. So Denmark have said Ukraine can have F16 but have to wait for US permission..

    I thought the US has already said yes.

    Q. How on earth are they going to protect them for maintenance purposes unless they get more GBAD?

    However, once they get them, God willing, I hope they mallet the crap out of the Russians and (listening to some SEAD pilots on YouTube at the mo) sending some good news to the Russians in Belarus and Ukraine – knowing you’re on the end of SEAD strike will be unsettling 😉

  5. The real bad thing about this war if Putin’s own high level staff had been honest with the Cowardly midget and our own western media had done some home work instead of making up headline stories this war would have properly never happened thousands dead on the strength of false information and propaganda. Imo Putin believed the lies and hype his own scientist and Mititarty top brass briefed him with believing that he had weaopns that could fight NATO . Putin would see all the headline stories in the western press about the so called Russian super weapons what in reality are nothing special more like blunder weapons . The T14 tank they don’t have in production Russian propaganda made out 1500 battle ready . The vastly Hyped up S400 what sruggles to shoot down anything in reality. The vastly Hyped 12 in number SU 57 not fit for purpose in reality and Russian air forces scared of using it in Ukraine they know any decent air defence will easy take them out . The so called unstoppable misilies that are getting stopped regular . On top of all these not so wonder weapons the Russian army had very low numbers of well trained troops had to soon bring in conscripts pedos and rapist . Imo if Putin had been told the truth and the real state of the Russian forces he would not been stupid enough to invade Ukraine .. Our own stupid press built Putin and Russia up out of all proportion and imo that helped give Putin great confidence.

  7. For anyone who reads this kindly take into account I am 100% in support of the Ukraine and its right to reestablish it’s independence and reclaim lost Ukrainian soil.

    However I am a pragmatist, realist and something of an amateur Historian. And despite the general perception and rhetoric, I do on this and only on this point, see and understand that Russia has a very strong case for Crimea being Russian and not Ukrainian.

    Historical.

    For nearly 200 years before 1954 Crimea was an integral part of The Russian Empire and later the Russian CSR. Both carried out a programme of ethnic cleansing to remove and eradicate the majority of the majority local Tarter population and replace with Russian and Ukrainian settlers (Stalin did his usual and massacred 000’s).
    In 1795 the Crimean population was 85% Tartar and only 2.2% Russian with zero recorded Ukrainians. By the 1950’s the entire Tartar population was zero they had all been killed off or deported, they have since the fall of the USSR started to return; and are now the 2nd largest ethnic population at 12.6 %.

    In 1856 at the Congress of Paris concluded in a peace treaty to end the Crimea War. It was signed by U.K, France, Austria, Sardinia (Italy), Prussia (Germany), Turkey and Russia. It explicitly recognised the Crimea as part of Russia.
    Odd thing History but U.K tends to stick to old treaties that most people have forgotten even when they make no sense (see 1839 Treaty of London and WW1 for details).

    In 1954 for some very odd reasons the USSR moved Crimea out of the Russian CSR and into the Ukrainian (just remember both were at that point members of the USSR). According to the census at that point Crimea was 75% Ethnic Russian but had no direct land access to the rest of the Russian CSR.

    Population Demographics.

    According to the census of 1939 the population of Crimea totalled 713k of which 49.6% were Russian, 19.4% Tartar and 13.7% Ukrainian.

    The census carried out in 2014 post Russian invasion by the Russian Government is really interesting as it does give a comparison of what has gone in since then. Total population 2.28 million of which 68% were Russian, 12.6% were Tarter and 15.7% were Ukrainian.

    It is now according to the 2021 Russian census 2.5 million of which Russian are 76% and Ukrainians only 7.7%. A lot of Ukrainians sold up and left (well that is the Russian version).

    I’ve looked at previous census info and the highest % Ukrainian was in the 1950’s and that was 26% viz 61% Russian.

    IMHO, as a realist and based on the above I honestly cannot see how the West can support the Ukraine occupying Crimea.
    It is ethnically Russian and it would be just another land grab and could just be the absolute Red line for Russia. Russia would probably interpret that as a direct invasion of Mother Russia. And then God help us all.

    Also as a realist there a lot of ex Army guys on this site and I’d suggest they just take a look at a map. Ukraine has zero amphibious capability and anyone looking at the Isthmus of Perekop will probably go “Bleep that for a Game of Soldiers” it is only 3.5 miles wide, flat as Norfolk and has natural defences.

    On the other hand as a pragmatist I completely support the Ukraine booting Russia back to the pre 2014 Russian border everywhere else and using the threat of invading Crimea as a way to negotiate a Peace Treaty.

      • Hi Paul

        Why ?

        It is now of very little strategic value and certainly not worth the possible massive loss of lives in taking it, nor does is it worth risking the possibility of triggering a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.

        Also even if the Russian Army retreated from Crimea what would you do you do with 1.7 million ethnic Civilian Russians ?

        The Russian Black Sea Fleet is pretty well neutralised and it will take decades if ever to regenerate it. Nothing that draws more than 4m can get from any Russian Naval base to reinforce it due to the Montreux Convention. They can try and build ships themselves or move small ships through their internal canal system but that’s it.

        Besides which it is pretty meaningless as Russia has an alternative base at Novorossiysk.

        Russia has not only completely failed in its stated war objectives, has strategically underestimated the Wests resolve but has inadvertently achieved something far more important and dangerous to itself.
        We in Europe are all upping our game with a level of economic spending on defence that they cannot match.

        The thing about most wars is that unless the objective is either the total elimination of your enemy or both sides fight themselves to a standstill,

        Then someone has to think about what an acceptable and lasting peace looks like ?

        Answer me this please ? What does peace look like to you and what price or risks is it worth taking to achieve that ? I’m genuinely interested.🤔

        • Perhaps I’m influenced its place in history. If the Russians have an adequate alternative you are probably right.

    • Good point well made ABCRodney.

      If the Ukrainians can cut the land bridge to Crimea they would then be a position to ‘offer’ Crimea in exchange for a Russian withdrawl from the east of Ukraine.

      Certainly if the current offensive is successful all interested parties are going to need to start to think about how this war comes to a close and that will mean compromise – which could be the stumbling block…

      Cheers CR

      • Though I hate to say it there is a ticking time bomb out there. We need to set out to Ukraine what war aims we will support and which we will not.
        For me roll back to the 2014 borders, stop, not 1 foot on Russian territory and dig in. Cut off the Crimea land corridor and retake the coastline on the Azov.
        But other than targeting military targets in Crimea including the Kerch Bridge is a no no.
        If there is one thing we want to avoid it is humiliating Russia, it always rebounds and some Luny tune takes advantage of that (just think Versailles led to Hitler and NATO expansion led to Putin).
        To me peace looks like Ukraine in its old borders and in NATO we all recognise Crimea as Russian and address their real fears.

        Russia has a fundamental and understandable fear of the West which is based on Western powers invading Russia multiple times in the last 200 years.
        France (1812), France/GB/Turkey (1853), Germany (1914 & 1941) and U.K/US/Japan/Poland (1919 !).

        What would a 100 mile 50/50 agreed and monitored demilitarised zone on the 1500km border look like ? And what harm would it be to anyone ?

        • so are you advocating rolling back to 2014 borders or implementing a monitored demilitarised zone as surely they are two different things.
          Who’s side of the 2014 borders would it be – who would finance and man it – and what is the rationale for it?

          • Hi Grizzler, Advocating is perhaps a bit of an overstatement, more a discussion point.
            What I am mooting (love that Olde Saxon word) is that we start to think beyond the immediate aim which is to roll Russia back. And start to ask “what does a lasting, just and secure peace look like ?”.
            We need an agreed war aim, as this is when all is said and done not a total World War with unconditional surrender on the table. Just think of recent History Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan were all limited wars where the West went in with no end objective defined or in sight.

            But other than the Crimea, yes what I am suggesting is the return to all the other 2014 borders as a start point. Then address the underlying but understandable fears most Russians have for the west. If that is publicly acknowledged and addressed IMHO there is a better chance of a long term and permanent peace.
            If that is done then Ukraine stands a chance of not having round 3 10 to 20 years down the line.
            History is full of bad peace agreements that have left I’ll feeling and fear which has then been exploited by little W&n<€£s such as Stalin, Putin and Hitler. Or even by certain politicians in the west who feed on some peoples fear of some folks colour, religion or sexuality, they feed on it and thrive.

            To do that I would talk about a 100 mile de militarised buffer with the border in the middle along the entire 1500 km border. And an open sky’s policy for unarmed recce aircraft / drones to monitor it.
            And as for who would monitor / pay for it, we already have a Blue print for that with how the START treaties were monitored by those with most to lose and gain NATO and Russia.

            There is a great tendency to just blindly shout for victory, Ukraine deserves Justice and a secure future within the Western community of free states.
            That doesn’t happen if they spend every day terrified that the peace is unstable due to a lop sided balance.

  8. Just seen that Ukraine is looking at getting up to a 1000 CV90s! Is this telling us that in the heat of a real battle that tracked is better than wheeled? Hope UK Army bods take note. To many or all Boxers in the mix could be a big strategic mistake! Is it now worth the UK now piggy back on this to get some good value IFV/APCs. Ukraine sorely needs more mobile shorad and Starstreak needs to be ER with more reach. Hate for Ukraine to lose too easily too many donated tanks and ifvs/APCs to helicopter and drone attacks.

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