December 8, 2024, marked a historic turning point in the Syrian Civil War as President Bashar al-Assad fled the country amidst the fall of Damascus to opposition forces.
Reports indicate that Assad departed from Damascus International Airport to an undisclosed location, with his regime crumbling under the weight of coordinated opposition offensives.
Senior officials from Assad’s government are reportedly engaging in talks with opposition representatives, with many preparing to defect. In a statement, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali vowed to remain in Syria and oversee a peaceful transition of power.
He urged rebel forces to avoid targeting state institutions or harming civilians in Damascus.
The Syrian Army officially declared the end of Assad’s rule, ordering all troops to lay down arms and cease hostilities. Meanwhile, opposition fighters seized control of key sites in the capital, including state television, where they announced the toppling of the regime and plans to form a new government. Rebel forces also stormed the Presidential Palace and Sednaya Prison, releasing thousands of prisoners, including political detainees.
Celebrations erupted across Damascus, with thousands gathering in Umayyad Square to mark the fall of the regime. Videos circulating on social media showed citizens tearing down portraits of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani at the Iranian embassy. Statues of former Syrian president Hafez al-Assad were also toppled.
Elsewhere in Syria, the conflict continued to reshape territorial control. Turkish-backed forces claimed significant advances in Manbij, while regime troops reportedly surrendered Deir ez-Zor to opposition fighters.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a stark warning against Kurdish groups, vowing that Ankara would never permit their influence over Syria’s government.
In a separate development, Israeli forces crossed into Syria’s Quneitra Governorate, reportedly to establish a buffer zone—the first such action in 50 years. This move adds a complex new dimension to the evolving conflict, further underscoring the geopolitical stakes of Syria’s unfolding transformation.
As Damascus transitions into opposition hands, the country is at a critical juncture, with questions of governance, reconstruction, and reconciliation looming large. The fall of Assad’s regime signals an end to an era, but the path forward remains uncertain.
Ff Assad is gone why did they see the need to invade another country for a buffer zone? Crossed is putting it lightly.
Turkey and Israel had estabilshed border zones with the old Assad regime and the views of the new Syrian leadership are unknown. For example the Israeli/Syrian DMZ was agreed 50 years ago, and Israel moving troops into it is just getting there first, to allow negotiations from strength. Given Iranian influence in the area, and an Islamicist group with a terrorist past taking control of Damascus, being cautious is only sensible. This isn’t about establishing a new border zone and much as militarizing the current one. Turkey on the other hand have supported the rebel groups over years, in part to create and maintain the buffer zones that they want to separate Turkish Kurds from Syrian Kurds. The bufer zones were created early in the Syrian war, around 2016. Although Ankara claim to have used their influence to delay the attack on Damascus, for them this must be seen as win, and I’m sure they’ll be wanting to return Syrian refugees as soon as possible.
For both Turkey and Israel a stable transition of power with the minimum amount of Iranian influence will be goal.
You do realise the moderate head choppers are an Israeli operation right? AQ and ISIS pretty much never carry out operations against Israel. IIRC they even apologised to them for a rocket that went astray and hit somewhere near Israeli property. Now we can enjoy another Libya-esque failed state spewing jihadists in the guise of asylum seekers into Europe. Also, bad luck to the Kurds, the Turks are going to finish you off now.
Are you suggesting HTS are Israeli backed? Or Al Qaeda are? Both assertions sound extremely unlikely to me.
The rebels have already declared that then intend to invade Israel and Saudi Arabia to take Jerusalem and Mecca for their new Islamic state.
I wonder what this means for the Russian naval base.
Russia has abandoned its naval base at Tartus leaving Russia without access to a warm water port. The ships stationed at Tartus cannot proceed into the Black Sea because of the Montreux Convention and will have to make for one of the Russian ports in the Baltic Sea. Most importantly, the loss of the Russian naval and air bases in Syria mean that Russia can no longer project power into the Middle East and is a catastrophic blow to Putin’s imperial ambitions.
Indeed. All in all a bad day for Russia and Iran means a good day for the west and Israel.
Most likely civil war, bad day for everyone !
…and the other Russian base, an air base.
It is being reported that most of the Russian ship left Tartus on 3rd December
Assad replaced by Al Qaeda affiliated rebels.
Jihadists.
What is worse?
Although Islamist, they’ve been trying to distance themselves from their Al Quaeda past. Maybe we should let them.
Yeah, I’m sure they are lovely people hell bent on bringing freedom and prosperity to their people.
🤨
In truth, it’s not relevant if they are nice people or not, the fact is Syria probably needs a pretty authoritarian groups to pull it back together. the only questions are:
1) can they unite Syrian and end the civil war
2) with they keep their noses out of other countries and not promote the international Islamist movement
3) will they help combat isis and Iran
4) will they be more in the western hemisphere or the Chinese/Russia hemisphere.
I disagree with your basic ascertain that it doesn’t matter whether they are nice people or not…it does and it will.
They have purportedly distanced themselves from ISIS- I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’d like to see how that pans out before joining in any celebrations as I fear it will be exposed for the facade many people believe it to be.
To that end my answers are:
No
No
No
and errr…
No.
As happened in Iraq I fully expect to happen in Syria.
If I was overlord of the West I’d back the Kurds and ‘ask’ Turkey to step back from any conflict with them.
Let us know how that goes when the 14 going on 28 year old “former ISIS” asylum seeker is put in your daughters school.
Well it appears to be mixed bag of rebel fractions, even the DRUZE(religion) are fighting
And many have said about distancing themselves from IS, AQ
Hell of a lot of video footage coming out of Syria
It’s a bit in the balance at present, that particular group has spent the last 8 years working quite hard to move itself away from al-Qaeda and the internal Islamist movement. They have very much said that their only interest is the set out of a stable Islamic state in Syria that follows sharia law, but would be tolerant in their approach, they say will be around the Saudi approach.
Essentially they have been syrianising the organisation..removing foreign Islamists and bring in independent Syrian religions and political groups.
They are also avowed enemies of ISIS and have launched a number of operations to arrest and remove ISIS fighters from its areas. They also hate the Iranians and are unlikely to offer any support to the Iranian backed problem groups…they also don’t like the Russians, while at the same time they have been trying hard to pursued the west that we and they can work something out.
I’m not yet fully convinced this is entirely good for the west and Israel, but I’m fully convinced this is a profound blow to Russian and Iranian influence.
But I thing on balance of probabilities the west could use this to its advantage if it’s willing to look the other way on internal affairs in Syria.
HTS aren’t affiliated with al-Qaeda. Its leader, Al-Jawlani used to, but has for years been distancing himself and his new organisation from it. Maybe it’s genuine, maybe it’s not, we’ll find out soon enough.
On the plus side, hopefully the Russians will-lose/have-lost their bases in Syria.
It’s a serious blow for Russia, after so many years of propping up the vile Assad regime…
Amusing to see Russan warships and the inevitable tug escort, belching black smoke and and doing the long walk of shame all the way to the Baltic though..
I suspect Putin will double down on Iranian support now and try to expand its military presence in Iran.
Seems everyone is starting to see Putin and Russia as a weak joke, except America’s Republican Party who are currently preparing to bend over and surrender to Putin and his “mighty” war machine.
Somehow these people are suppose to be considered a super power yet they have been handsomely beaten in just 50 years by Rice Farmers, Mountain Tribes and now Orcs. (I’m not sure the term surrender with honor was once used by the British empire in 300 years but the Donald about to use it for the third time
It a shame to see a once proud nation with a mighty fighting force and some of the bravest soldiers who ever lived turned into toys soldiers for parades.
This could be very good for the geostrategic goals of the west.
What we know all the sides left standing, cannot stand the Iranian backed groups or Russia…is this a catastrophic for Iran, Hezbollah as they loss their ability to use Syria as supply route and potentially a future route to attack Israel. It’s also profoundly bad for Russia as it losses sea access and bases on the eastern Mediterranean. It shows the extreme stretch of the Iranian backed fighters and Russia as no one could spend resources to save the Syrian government..just this is all very good for the west and Israel, before we get to a future Syrian government’s relations with the west.
But the mix of different groups means it’s going to be touch and go which way Syria goes..it could collapse further into complete failed state territory which it never gets out of..or it could be rebuilt. The problem is the mix and foreign influences trying to maintain proxy wars..
Let’s look
On the rise and they guys who now control the capital Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, this group started life has an al Qaeda affiliate, but broke away in 2016 and decided to dedicate themselves to Syria and forget about the whole international Islamist thing. They have over the last 8 years removed all their leadership who are not Syrians and have been slowly merging in syrian political and religious groups in the areas they controlled. They are also avowed enemies of ISIS and have launched a number of operations to arrest and remove ISIS fighters from its areas. They also hate the Iranians and are unlikely to offer any support to the Iranian backed problem groups…they also don’t like the Russians, while at the same time they have been trying hard to pursued the west that they are not a terrorist threat and they can work with the international community..infact they state although they want a Syrian Islamic state, they see this as a more tolerant state. The question is will they work with the wider secular rebel groups and Kurds…. It’s a bit in the balance at present, the group has spent the last 8 years working quite hard to move itself away from al-Qaeda and the internal Islamist movement. They have very much said that their only interest is the set out of a stable Islamic state in Syria that follows sharia law, but would be tolerant in their approach, they say will be around the Saudi approach.
Essentially they have been syrianising the organisation..removing foreign Islamists and bring in independent Syrian religions and political groups, there is no question if Syria can prevent a general fall into a failed state they will be an authoritarian regime. But will it be a regime the west can work with, which basicly means will it keep its nose out of Israel.
I’m not yet fully convinced this is entirely good for the west and Israel, but I’m fully convinced this is a profound blow to Russian and Iranian influence.
But I thing on balance of probabilities the west could use this to its advantage if it’s willing to look the other way on internal affairs in Syria and just consider the external issues..like it would do during the Cold War.
Thanks J. Lots to consider.
I think it will one of two ways. Either HTS work a coalition deal with the Kurds or they go to war with each other. However, the Kurds have both political and military backing from the US, whilst HTS is “influenced” by Turkey. The other point to consider is that over half of Syria’s oil wells are under Kurdish control in the east. These wells were part of Syria’s main income stream. Without them, a split Syria will be significantly worse off financially. The other consideration is that Turkey cannot allow the Syrian Kurds to form their own state, as this will give more impetus to the Turkish Kurds to break away from Turkey.
I bet HAMAS are feeling pretty stupid right about now lol
The Hamas ugly fly wing flutter collapses the Assad dictatorship.
Interesting contrast.
A minority Sunni dictatorship in Iraq overthrown by Western forces, resulting in weak Shia majority government and continued disorder.
A minority Alawite dictatorship with Shia support is overthrown by Sunni forces,, resulting in…..Sunni dominated government and continued chaos?
Neither of these countries carved out of the collapsed Ottoman empire has had much experience of effective civilian government. Both may become marginally more stable now that the governments will reflect better the majority of the population rather than a minority. But history suggests that any period of relative stability will be short lived.
Strategically, this is a big loss for Iran but even more for Russia which has been a key ally and supporter for decades.
This is a bigger loss for Iran. The whole strategy and raison d’etre is fighting Israel. I am sure there are heated discussion in Teheran and there are
people in disgrace regarding the last developments.
For Russia was an important side show, but not crucial.