British minister has expressed ‘significant concerns’ about Russia’s ‘aggressive build-up’ of 92,000 troops at Ukraine’s borders amid concern that a Russian invasion of the country is imminent.
MilitaryTimes have reported here that a Ukrainian defense intelligence agency chief believes that Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine by late January.
Jim Shannon asked via a Parliamentary written question:
“To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, what support is being offered to Ukraine to help counter any military action by Russia.”
James Heappey, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence, responded:
“Defence has a longstanding relationship with our Ukrainian counterparts and continues to provide support in many areas including security assistance and defence reform. Since 2015, the UK has helped build the resilience and capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through Operation ORBITAL which has trained around 21,000 Ukrainian troops.
We have significant concerns about Russia’s aggressive pattern of military build-ups on Ukraine’s border and in illegally-annexed Crimea. We remain clear that Russia’s threatening and destabilising behaviour is unacceptable and continue to monitor events on the ground closely.”
This comes as the U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade. Bloomberg report here:
“That intelligence has been conveyed to some NATO members over the past week to back up U.S. concerns about Putin’s possible intentions and an increasingly frantic diplomatic effort to deter him from any incursion, with European leaders engaging directly with the Russian president. The diplomacy is informed by an American assessment that Putin could be weighing an invasion early next year as his troops again mass near the border.”
Russian’s do like their military equipment big, just look at that hovercraft.
Sure beats our LCAC. Which are now gone.
I had a butchers at the map, the Ukrianians have pushed out regards the Russian build up, I get the impression they (if they go in) are going to take the land corridorto the Crimeria in which to ease the pressure on it. (currently all supplies cross a wee rail bridge, are shipped in or flown in) If they do go in, I can’t see much what anybody can do, I mean would NATO (never mind the UK) send in troops?
Do you think the UK would go to full scale war with Russia over Ukraine?
We didn’t go to war over Czecho in 1938… but we ended up going to war anyway. If Putin is allowed to take Ukraine he will not stop there.
True but Putin isnt on the war path needing ‘living room’ either. If and its a big IF he moves in it will only be a short distance with some obscure justification for it.
He doesnt want and cant afford a full war hence any possible movement will be minimal and within what he expects the west to tolerate.
Putin has said that Ethnic Russians are threatened, that Russia will defend them wherever they are and their right to space as part of a Russian World. It
True.
A sane man would say no, and then there’s Boris.
As nuts as he is he doesnt come across as a person craving a war, fortunately.
Still if Corbyn had got in we would have had no choice but to let them get on with it as the armed forces would have been disbanded.
Well he would have penned a strongly worded letter probably congratulating Putin 😀
It’s a NATO move. The days of waiting a few years for the Americans to see the light are probably over.
Absolutely no chance whatsoever ,even if the Political will was there what could we go to War with ?.
A small specialised force and that would be it.
It would not happen under Article 5 as Ukraine is not a NATO member.
HMG would consider joining a non-NATO, US-led operation – but thats doubtful – and there would be many in Parliament who would not want war, probably most MPs.
I could not see any western country taking military action – just apply more sanctions to Russia.
I doubt any western governments would go with the war answer unless Russia went literally all out and did a full scale invasion of Ukraine and looked as though it would not stop at the Polish border.
Many wonder if the US would go to war against China to save Taiwan from invasion or to liberate Taiwan aftern Chinese invasion.
Russia/Ukraine is a similar situation, in some ways. Would the US or a US-led coalition go to war with Russia over Ukraine? I doubt it.
Its all different if Russia (for what reason?) invaded Poland – thats a NATO country and Article 5 would be triggered.
Would they go to war with both over Taiwan or Ukraine?
Little green and yellow men springs to mind!
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/terror-insurgent-group/latest/china-russia-approve-202125-road-map-to-increase-military-co-operation
Oh the UK cant do that! They’ve just ditched more soldiers, and are focussing on some hair brained Ranger regiment. That should scare the bejesus out of the russians and the chinese when they start next.
As part of NATO yes. Putin wants Ukraine obviously but it is also true to say he wants the rest of Europe as well. At what point do you say enough is enough?
I can see them pushing across in line an taking Odessa, esentially land locking Ukraine, If the WEST doing anything he would just turn off the gas!!!
Yep – there’s some sort of consensus that even Russia would struggle to occupy all of the Ukraine,but another Land Corridor to Crimea and a de-facto partition of Eastern Ukraine might be possible.
This is the root of the problem, and Putin is taking full advantage of it, European reliance on Russian gas. Europe would need to import gas from somewhere else quickly!
I agree with your thinking, Russia also need to secure the water supply for the Crimea as they are running short and the Ukraine has turned the taps off. It would also mean that the Sea of Azov becomes an inland sea.
You do wonder at Putins logic if it’s water motivating this it would be less risky and cheaper to have built desalination plants than go to war and its not like Russia is short of energy to power them.
Russia has done this before and then it slowly filters away back to a lower level of troops and equipment.
But they’ve also taken parts of Georgia and Ukraine before
True so they dont need to do it again!
To put a perspective that number 92 000, is significantly bigger than the entire British Army!
Brave men that they are they could do with some help-how about these men of steel?
https://youtu.be/thz3DQQNjTwr
Russia has a big army, but they are using old rusty cold war equipment.
What Russia uses tends to work, irrespective of age and condition, and while their Army doesn’t have all the Bells and Whistles as some Western equivalents a lot of their gear has seen significant upgrades
Quantity has a quality of its own. WW2 showed that. They can literally overwhelm just by numbers.
In mid-2015 it was assessed that 60% of the Russian Armed Forces equipment was modern/advanced.
I would be interested in comparing russias night fighting abilty to the west and they still have a fraction of the smart bombs that the west uses there are still big holes in russias fighting abilty compared to western army’s as is shown in Syria but they are still a credible force but in an conflict that the USA was prepared to commit Russia wouldn’t stand a chance
Its a third of Russia’s entire army deployed on that one border.
92K? For an effective, low-casualty invasion they would need much more than that
The Ukrainians had nukes, we took them away. Some say a promise of security was offered in exchange, I have read that is not true. Maybe the US/UK should offer to return them if Putin gets serious, the signal for that would be a build up of Forces in Crimea and the occupied east province. A pincer movement. I cannot see returning Nukes can break the treaty. If not ,NATO need to send a large force on a training exercise with the Ukrainians. A risk yes, but better than the two alternatives. An emboldened Putin is like an emboldened Hitler, we made that mistake once before !
Putin isnt going to go on an all out invasion of the European continent, he has nothing to gain and everything to lose from doing so.
Those Nukes that Ukraine gave up, were dismantled, and used as fuel for nuclear power stations.
Russia took the nukes, not the west. Russia guarenteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine as part of the exchange. That was the treaty they signed.
If we allow Russia or the PRC to invade wherever it likes & to bow to economic pressure(Gas etc) then we’ll just hand over liberties & freedoms across the world & become vassels ourselves. Better we say a clear NO now than years down the line when millions more peoples & nations have been enslaved.
If Russia treated the Ukraine better they may not want to be seperate, but if Ukrainians mostly want to be seperate Russia only have themselves to blame.
Another story is that Ukraine did not want to keep the nukes left on their soil at the dismantling of the Soviet Union. They did no want Russia to have them, so the US offered to take them. The offer was accepted and they were flown Stateside where they were decommissioned. So, which story do we believe?
The one that has been on the record since the 1990’s rather than the latest Russian trolling.
The elite in the EU/UK have thought it better to virtue signal, rather than develop affordable, secure sovereign energy for their citizens & industry. Putin has jumped on the West’s stupidity. Germany should never have abandoned nuclear power. Now it is dependent on Russian gas. So Germany might write a letter of complaint if Putin seizes part of Ukraine, but in Winter, the Germans dare not do more. Boris & Rishi have wasted tens of billions on dodgy loans, PPE. I think it would have been better spent on making the UK energy secure. Refurbish closed gas storage, build nuclear power stations, the Severn & Wash barriers. Buy a brand new Korean bulk gas carrier. That way we can make sure the gas comes to Britain rather than chasing higher prices in Asia. More use than a new Royal yacht. Please develop the remaining gas & oil fields in the North Sea. You may not want them in 30 years, but we need the energy now.
One point that you have all missed . Putin has put nukes in Crimea and some are ICBMs so why does he need them there. It’s to hit the west if you don’t comply with his wishes
Don’t believe the Russians would position
ICBM’s in Crimea, they would be too vulnerable to conventional attack, or even to artillery. Static ICBM’s near coastlines, are Not the place to be for ICBM’s.
ICBM’s operated by the U.S
are positioned hundreds of miles inland or under the water out in the ocean.
Remember Putin and his cohorts are living a life of luxury in palace’s, with hookers at their instant service. They certainly want that good life to continue, Not if they started throwing Nukes about!
Putin doesn’t strike me, as the type who believes he will go to paradise when dead!
We do nothing when Mr Putin orders his assassins to use chemical weapons on our own doorstep, we do nothing when Mr Putin orders his spy’s to blow up ammunition storage facilities in Europe, we do nothing when Mr Putin orders the annexation of the Crimea so what will we do when he decides to take a bit more of the Ukraine. I believe it will be the square root of nothing!!
The problem is when will it stop, if he gets a stroll in the park when taking the Ukraine and he sees that NATO is just a paper tiger what then, the Baltic states, Norway any were that might have a few assets that Russia might think it needs!!
I think 2022 will be an eye opener, It is not beyond the realms of impossibility that Mr Putin and Mr Xie talk to each other and Taiwan along with the Ukraine pass out of the geography books and into the history books at the same time.
We shall see said the blind man to his deaf dog!!!!
If you take the Salisbury Poisoning incident our government was caught between a Rock and a Hard Place, any response had to be calm and measured, Sanctions and Rhetoric were pretty much the only option. A response in kind would have meant escalation which leads to War, that is the reality of the situation.
Hello Paul,
Is not using chemical weapons in a foriegn country and act of war, is blowing up foriegn ammunition facility’s an act of war, is not annexing some one else’s coast line and port facility’s an act of war.
We are already at war but the government refuses to believe it and as a consequence it is one we are going to lose.
It was to all intents and purposes an act of War I agree, but can you justify starting WW3 as a response to it ?.
Mr Putin knows we have not got the ability to declare war on Russia or the will power to back it up if we did he now controls our media influences our elections and has inroads into our academic institutions, if we do not act soon it will be to late, WW3 will happen but the way things are going it will be 3rd time lucky for enemy’s.
I very much doubt that Putin is stupid enough to launch an invasion of left bank Ukraine going all the way up to the Dnieper River. To start with, whilst the Ukrainian forces are out matched they have significantly enhanced there capabilities (drones, Javelin, air defence). Any invasion would result in 10s of thousands of Russian casualties. Putin would not be able to hide this. Ever since the massive casualties suffered in WW2 the Russian people have been casualty averse (thus the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Soviet Union). Putin knows this and will not risk his regime in a similar manner. The other thing is, what does Putin do with left bank Ukraine after he’s occupied it? There would certainly be a complete regime of sanctions imposed by the west and the Ukrainians, with western support, could (probably would) instigate a widespread insurgency that would necessitate a continued massive Russian military presence in the region with a drip, drip ongoing casualty list. Now i’m sure Ivan knows this but you can never be sure with leaders as reckless as Putin.
I can see no advantage for Putin to overtly invade Ukraine with massed forces. He can achieve his aims by indirect means – cyber warfare, exerting political and economic pressure and use of ‘little green men’.
Putin must surely remember the debacle of their operation in Afghanistan.
What would be his ‘war aim’ in launching massive invason forces?