British surveillance aircraft keeping an eye on Russian forces

He has a mate who cleans the stripper pole at Putins mansion on the black sea. But keep it to yourself.🕵

lol Ulya a she.

😯

Translates to Julia if easier for you David

My Russian isn’t what it used to be. lol

😃

My source is the same as yours Dave, nothing but speculation, but taking all Ukraine is pointless, as you say it will be hostile population in much of it and Putin would not get domestic support for it and be a massive financial burden, but supporting Donbass republics more openly is most likely, maybe moving west a little more but not much, NATOs own rules already exclude Ukraine joining.
If countries like Poland, UK etc try and force Ukrainian entry and break NATO rules it will be interesting to see how France, Germany etc accept that. I assume then both west and Russia will increase tensions supporting each side and we will continue proxy war fighting to the last Ukrainian. It’s all quite silly really but these talks will go no where and neither side will back down. I also expect Ukraine to stop being transit country once gas contract runs out, or maybe we will just ignore contract and stop it early but that will depend on whatever new sanctions are made, either way, Putin has tried to maintain good trade with Ukraine, I expect that to change and try to make them more dependent on European money. The most interesting part for me is how Putin’s attitude and language has changed, he has always been positive and friendly when publicly talking about the west, now he is hostile by his standards, it is interesting

It is Gazprom that is restricting gas supplies to the rest of Europe all because Putin is sulking about the new gas pipeline to Germany is not approved.

I can’t find any evidence that Gazprom is not supplying gas that has been contracted for. On the contrary it is the Euopeans that are not ordering gas due to the high price on the spot market. Unfortunately the EU took a decision to ‘encourage’ EU countries to abandon their long term contracts and go spot back in 2014. Worked OK until last year when there was a bad winter and the operators in the gas futures market saw an opportunity for big profits and cranked the prices up. Alone, Hungary saw the writing on the wall and last September went back to contract, at the old price. Nothing to do with NS2 and Putin, this is European speculators working the market that is totally unsuited for pipeline gas.

In the “Gas Wars’ of 2000’s Russia regularly cut gas supply to both Belarus and Ukraine which resulted in gas supplies to Central Europe being interrupted with being under contract.
So good luck to Hungary with that new contract!

I’d like some links on that. The accepted history seem to be that the gas supply was only interrupted when the Ukrainians broke the contract and stole too much or didn’t pay for what they had taken legally. The Russians did it to force their European customers to put pressure on Ukraine. I had not heard of the Belarus pipeline being interrupted but if it was I assume it was for the same reason. The Russians are proud of their continuing to supply to contract all through the Cold War. Hungary will be getting their gas through Turksteam so there will not be a Ukrainian issue, whilst at the moment they are saving a small fortune compared to some of their neighbours.

All contracts are being honoured but if you can prove otherwise I will be interested. Europe main problem with gas price is buying on spot market instead of contract and no forward planning. Who is hurting more by NS2 not being in operation?

See my comment above on gas cut off’s by Russia. So it is an untrustworthy supplier of gas.

It maybe Hungary that’s holding up Ukraine’s entry into NATO, there’s a election coming up in the Spring there Ulya.

Correct me if I am wrong but NATO cannot accept new member with on going border dispute and all NATO members must agree. NATO might try to speak with one voice but individual governments will decide. Part of Putin’s idea I think is getting agreement for what happens once peace deal can be found between Kiev and Donbas but if no agreement for Russia then no peace in Donbas, keep the war going at low level, increase it if necessary

Good to get a Russian viewpoint. The Russian military seems to now have sufficient ‘stuff’ in place to rapidly counter any strike into Donbas, which is, they have said, the only reason to attack Ukraine.
 
Whilst they will probably turn most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure to rubble across the whole country I suspect that they will want to make a point to NATO about what they are facing, so it will be by missiles not boots on the ground. The militia in the Donbas, by all accounts, looks pretty capable so with the help of Russian artillery they can themselves move their area forward to the Oblast borders, no need to go further, with as few as they need Russians crossing the border.
 
Fortunately its unlikely to happen as the Ukrainians are not that stupid an,d after the meetings this week, Russia will want to make a point to the US in an area they are not necessarily expecting.

You are correct I think, no boots on the ground, although Putin is still very popular president many Russian do not support some of his overseas involvment that is why company like wagner is useful. Syria we understand and he has kept that limited, Libya I don’t know why we involved, supporting Donbas yes, attacking all Ukraine and there would be protests in Moscow, he must keep Russia body count low for domestic support to remain dispute the usual western view Russia is dictatorship, Putin still has to answer at the polls, last election United Russia lost seats in duma. Cruise missile and supporting militia is a good minimal risk approach while sending simple message

Sorry I must go out now to place with no internet connection, thank you for interesting talk

Libya is easy. Russia was double crossed in the UNSC where the move on Libya was proposed as a human rights etc issue but once approved turned into a full bloodied assault and regime change job. That was never forgiven so now official Russia is there, albeit very much in the background, whilst Wagner carries the flag.

You tell me Merion, it is the west that claims we are about to invade, I think we have already passed 2 dates that I saw in your media

Ulya Are not all those 90k squaddies holed up near Ukraine not complaining about not being home for Xmas and New Year’s celebrations, and also wondering what are they doing there?

I am not, currently I am in far north, but I have brother and nephew there. As far as I know they are aware of why they are there, on Russian territory. If Russia is expected to be happy about NATO being on our borders, why the concern about us being in the border region?

I think the same would apply if the US deployed 90k troops in the Baltics. A lot questions would be asked what they are doing there, and when they be moved across the border.

You do not see the difference between Russia troops in Russia territory and American troops on Russian border?

Would you be asking the same questions if China concatenated 500k troops on Russian For East border, what are all those troops doing near the same area?

Good morning, you increase numbers from 90,000 to 500,000 for dramatic effect? If 90,000 Chinese troops in border region in Chinese territory then no issue, if increased to 500,000 then yes concern, but numbers alone is narrow view, it would depend of what the political situation is between Russia/China. Right now our relationship is friendly. Russian and western relationship is hostile and 90,000 US troops in Baltics is very different to 90,000 from the 3 states in their own territory

UIya, I increased the figure due to the PRC ground forces about 4X Russia GF, I may be wrong? Yes 90k GF on PRC boarder is no issue, but 300k or 400k or more would be a issue I think.
Why cannot Russia decrease GF’s near Ukraine to average concentration across Russia?

My guess is the Russians are not moving so that they maintain the pressure on Ukraine not to do something stupid. Lavrov yesterday said that it was costing a lot of money to have them out in the open rather than in their barracks. Apparently on Monday the US even told them which routes they should send them home on, which didn’t go down well. Incidentally, Lavrov talked for an hour on what went on, they are being very open on the discussions.

Would you be asking the same questions if China concatenated 500k troops on Russian Far East border, what are all those troops doing there near the same area?
And China saying the same they are on Chinese territory?
Maybe the Chinese might just do this one day, on Russia’s boarder.

Chinese territory question, I rubbed most of the repeat out. Also a spelling error, ‘concentrated’.

My apologies, this question had disappeared for a while, I mistakenly resubmitted it, sorry! Ho dear twice now again!

I just think the gas card is all Putin has got .

Economically gas is the most important Dave, military there are some simple things Russia can do very easily, one being converting Iskandar brigades to nuclear warheads, we already have the missiles and warheads in storage. Nuclear option is the corner stone of our defence, like I have said before, we cannot compete in population or money spent against NATO and going back to spending 40% of GDP like soviet days is just silly, so we must use nuclear, having several hundred short range nukes on our border will ruin west security, but having NATO on our border ruins ours. It is also in our interests to support China/US hostility, get the US to focus more on China and get the US to spend more, NATO is nothing without US leadership. The west is starting to run out of options to threaten Russia with, be interesting to see what happens

A bigger prize than Ukraine joining NATO, would be Finland joining! F-35’s based in Finland could destroy the Russian Northern Fleet in a short time.

The Finnish PM said on Thursday that they would not, followed by the Swedes yesterday. Life is so much better being neutral as the Finns noticed watching Sweden prosper in WW2.

Sorry for slow reply, have been away from internet connection. We have learned much about F35 operation in Syria, There is a reason why they send S400 radar there, if we learn enough to make a difference is open to speculation

Malware! You forgot malware! And trolls!

True , and world of tanks.

Malware, from what I read both sides play this game. Trolls, from just what I have seen on this site a troll is anyone who has an opinion different from yours and it is easier to try and shut conversation down with troll comment than counter their view with intelligence

Damn, the Russian state propaganda has gotten you good.

NATO has absolutely zero interest in invading Russia. They are however interested in helping ensure the independence of countries neighbouring Russia, partly because it reassures members that Russia won’t risk invading.

Russia complain about NATO activity near their borders, but that activity is solely because Russia has shown herself to be completely untrustworthy and potentially a threat.

Move your forces back to their bases and watch NATO ease off in response.

I’m not sure if having you here is good or bad. On one hand you’re spreading FUD and propaganda, but on the other hand perhaps being here will open your eyes to what the situation really is like.

Hello Tam,

Why is my opinion state propaganda and your isn’t? You don’t think Russian is capable of research and seeing situation and make up their own mind? You believe the west is keeper of truth?

You are correct, NATO has no interest in invading Russia, NATO is also incapable of doing it without destroying itself in the process. I have never seen Russian article suggesting the west would invade but please correct me if wrong.
What Russia is wanting is national security, the same security you want.
To Russian NATO had no purpose once Warsaw pact and CCCP finished, and NATO is nothing more than extension of US military.

Facts, NATO moved to our border, not us move to you, US pulled out of ABM, INF and open sky’s, US build missile base in Romania and Poland with multi use mk41, we don’t believe their story of protecting Europe from Iran missiles and 3rd party NATO troops are now on our border. To us these are hostile acts.
We can dispute cause of situation in Ukraine but end result is the same, to us a hostile act that not only effects Russia security but ethnic Russian.
The west has history of using military force in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya and I better add old Yugoslavia as that seems important to older Slav.
Basically we have lack of trust in the west, and the west has lack of trust in us especially former Soviet states.
What neither side seems capable off is listening, both side have sins, both sides want to be heard but at the moment we have 2 sides that talk at each other but not too each other.
If you wish to complain to George about me being here feel free but if it is only because I have different view to you and you don’t like it, then suck it up princess

“Facts, NATO moved to our border, not us move to you…”
Fact Wrong! Former states of USSR and Warpac moved to NATO by choice, by being invited, Not forced to join, like the USSR. The Baltic States were independent before 1940, as were Warpac countries before WW2.
If former Warpac countries were given independence post WW2 and had relations with the USSR, they wouldn’t needed to join NATO?
Russia would get it’s national security, if only it would cooperative with it’s neighbours, including NATO. Turkey was a neighbour of the USSR for decades, so why more problem now Ulay?

As we now know for certain from several, including declassified, sources the Russians were told on several occasions at the highest level that NATO would not expand to the east of Germany. That they accepted, in the face of a weak at the time Russia, rather than reject the requests, broke those promises. Russia has now regained its strength as is putting its foot down.

I don’t dispute reason for ex Warsaw pact countries for joining NATO, but does not change the fact NATO is on our border.
I notice you didn’t argue my other points.

I am also not going to try to justify Stalin decision to hold on to those countries, he was a pig. From my perspective Soviet should of pulled out of those countries after the war but Stalin died 40 before I was born so my opinion was not asked.

As for cooperation with NATO, this is a 2 way street, talk to us with respect and we will do the same.

Since CCCP fall it seems to me the west has done as it pleases and there was no one to challenge, now you have both Russia and China as counter balance to western dominance. It is interesting time in geopolitics

All we know is that the Russians have said they will only react if the Ukrainians attack into the Donbas. The have not said how they would do that so all is speculation.

What Russia says and does is a totally different thing Ivan as its past actions have proven under Putin , Salisbury excuse two GRU agents were Russian fitness trainers on holiday visiting the cathedral lol!!!

Our Government seems very reluctant to have that tested in a Court, even the Coroners Court. I wonder why?

Ivan , any body who is a UK national and has all his marbles knows it was the GRU because two GRU agents who have been identified , going to visit Salisbury (a real hotspot for Russian tourist mind lol) seen on CCTV 5min walk away from a ex KGB agents house which just happens to have a Russian made nerve agent on the skirpals door handle ,its pretty obvious and that’s just lightly touching the evidence, as for court hearing Russia will not send the GRU agents for judgement, so you seem to have a unhealthy bias to a mafia state. You are either ill or I more suspect you are Russian lol.

God bless you Dave for believing our totally honest Government.

Salisbury poisonings took place under a different leadership! The overall system of government in the UK, is much more than the leadership in 10 Dowding Street.

I think you are wasting your time with Ivan , johninmk what ever he is , its seem hes couple sails short of the wind lol

Maybe so, it seems!

Sorry Ivan but you have no real comeback I see ,sounds like you need god more.

BBC says a false-flag attack on Rusian forces or ethnic Russians is likely to be employed give Russia the pretext to mount an invasion. Both Japan in Manchuria & Nazi Germany in Poland did the same.

I’d like to see a NATO battlegroup being prepared to be deployed if Russia invades Ukraine, both as a deterrent & counter if Russia attacks.

PRC could be waiting for NATO to get quagmired in Ukraine before attempting to invade Taiwan.

We urgently need to get our act together in our military before the general public wake up to how weak we are.

The BBC being a paragon of truth and accuracy!
 
I kinda doubt, given their own capabilities, that the Russians would regard a NATO battle group with much trepidation.
 
Why would China care if NATO was bogged down in Ukraine? Particularly as the US has already made it clear that they aren’t going in to help.
 
Does the general public care about the state of our military? If it was an app on their phone then they might.

Edit spelling mistake corrected

Not a huge fan of the BBC, their standards have dropped apallingly over the last 30+ years, but my taxes pay for them weather I like what they do or not.
The West needs to do the necessary to effectively deter rather than being all talk, especially after devalueing it’s word by allowing the Syrian Kurds to be attacked by Turkey & abandoning Afghanistan. Hence having a battle group ready for deployment if/when Russia invades Ukraine, again, would I think focus Putin’s mind more than more sanctions. As with Taiwan, we need to get off the fence or surrender to everyone who opposes us.

Ignoring the issue that we would effectively be declaring war on Russia without Article 5 protection. Lets think the logistics through. A battle group ready to deploy to Ukraine.If it was light infantry, possible as a few A-400 or C-17 loads but what if they wanted to take some armour etc? Military power in the World has changed, we have to get used to it.

I think Ukraine has enough boots on the ground with reseves and has a lot of armour in T64MK’s better then T72’s.
It is in the air that more support is needed with extra SAMs or even Iron Dome. Ukraine does have Mig’s and SU’s in various conditions, some in process of repair over 150 potentially be in service again which could be armed with AMRAAM from the West.