The Ministry of Defence say here that the decision comes after the successful use of UK multiple-launch rocket systems by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, gifted earlier this year.
The UK will send further multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Ukraine “as part of an enduring commitment to help the country defend itself against Russia’s illegal invasion, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has announced”.
“Britain will also give a significant number of precision guided M31A1 missiles which can strike targets up to 80km away, enabling Ukraine to continue to defend itself against Russian heavy artillery. The decision comes following the successful use of multiple-launch rocket systems by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, gifted by the UK earlier this year.”
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1557681449767165952
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP said:
“This latest tranche of military support will enable the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue to defend against Russian aggression and the indiscriminate use of long-range artillery. Our continued support sends a very clear message, Britain and the international community remain opposed to this illegal war and will stand shoulder-to-shoulder, providing defensive military aid to Ukraine to help them defend against Putin’s invasion.”
Ukrainian troops have been trained in the UK on how to use the launchers so that they can maximise the effectiveness of the systems. This is in addition to the UK’s commitment to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in infantry battlefield skills over the coming months. Canada, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands have all announced they will be supporting the programme.
“Building on this effort, the Defence Secretary will co-host the Copenhagen Conference for Northern European Defence Allies of Ukraine on Thursday 11 August, to discuss further, long-term support for Ukraine on training, equipment, and funding.
Recognising the relentless courage and determination of the Ukrainian people, the UK and its allies will begin to establish a plan of action to support Ukraine into 2023 and beyond for as long as necessary, as they continue to fight for their freedom and sovereignty.”
Surprised we have any spare to give. I do hope all of this equipment is being replaced.
A good question. I fear the answer is no or only slowly (none of this stuff is built/delivered quickly) and likely from the existing defence budget. Hopefully I am wrong.
Likewise. Wishful thinking would suggest it’s a good opportunity to reassess and reequip what was already an under resourced part of the British army.
Should all come out of the foreign aid budget !!!
We are being backfilled by Norway who are giving us theirs from storage (though they require upgrading).
I wonder how many? Norway transferred 3 leaving 9 that they still have in storage. Given they no longer operate them then potentially they could transfer the lot depending on their state and condition.
The more the better.
I’d read 3. Unsure if that is accurate.
Yes just heard 3 on BBC, announced at a conference as part of our latest aid package.
Seems a bit backwards to send our stock, then replace them from units in storage that would require upgrades. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for us to send the Norwegian stocks? Unless they would need the upgrades to be sent to Ukraine due to ammunition being provided and that would take too long to do?
The Norwegian stock has been in storage for two decades so hasnt seen the software upgrades that other users provided for the new cluster weapon ban compliant ammunition M30, M31 rockets and GMLRS missiles replacing M26 rocket ammunition which was physically disabled in software for treaty compliance. The vehicles could also do with physical reconditioning.
Britain is in the process of mechanical upgrades to all its own existing M270 vehicles over the next couple of years with more powerful engines and to be able to fire the new 500km cruise missile like Precision Strike ammunition which is replacing the GMLRS missile ammunition.
Two ways to look at it, the simplistic way which is all the kit we give away weakens the country or the wholisitc way which is to say that the only realistic threat where we would be required to use this kit (required and not just decide to join a war) is against Russia and if Russia comes out of the war a shadow of themselves and no longer a conventional warefarw threat to NATO, then the equipment’s job has been done.
Totally agree, the purpose of the weapons is being fulfilled, they are weakening Russia so thus automatically strengthening our position. We can backfill in the pace that suits us but it doesn’t weaken us.
I remember reading in recent years that our MLRS are in desperate need for updates to keep them competitive, though this war has rather shown that case building somewhat overstated perhaps. But it asks the question have they been, considering the snail pace of updating anything and defence spending pressures generally I presume not. So maybe using them in this way makes the need for reasons that others mention, less urgent while leaving us actually less of them to upgrade anyway, which I’m sure the accountants will love. Or are only Norwegian ones being delivered.
By the way have the Norwegians replaced this capacity with something else or just feel they are less threatened since they utilised them so took them out of service? Think we are seeing how vital they are when Russian numbers so much greater if by far, not the quality clearly.
The Norwegians took their 12 out of service back in 2005 and simply put them in storage. That’s why we’re having to update them to replace the ones we’re supplying to Ukraine.
On the plus side, having been in storage, the Norwegian ones will have had less usage than ours so should have more life left in them.
Lovely Jubbly eh
Spy wrote:
from March 2021:
The MLRS is a highly mobile automatic system that fires 12 surface-to-surface missiles in less than a minute.
Upgrades will be made to 44 launchers, which are currently in-service, and will include a new armoured cab and upgraded automotive and launch mechanism components.
The upgrades will ensure that the Army’s Land Deep Fires capability remains strong for the next three decades and that the British Army has the technological capability to quickly meet the threats of today and tomorrow.
Taking advantage of the long-standing MLRS collaboration with the US and key allies, work will start on upgrading the first tranche of launchers in March 2022 with the fleet going through production over a four-year period. The upgrades will keep the equipment in service until 2050.
The work will be carried out under an existing production contract with Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control with the work being carried out at Red River Army Depot and Lockheed Martin’s facility in Camden, Arkansas.
The UK is also developing UK-specific systems for the new launchers, including Composite Rubber Tracks (CRT), and a vehicle camera and radar system. A new Fire Control System will be developed collaboratively with the US, UK, Italy, and Finland.
The CRT will provide better fuel economy and allow the launcher to travel further, giving greater operational and tactical mobility to support deployed troops in a range of operating environments. A single launcher will be used to fire many payloads.
To ensure soldiers are not outranged, the Army will develop a new extended range missile with MLRS partners, to be fired from the updated launchers, which should be in-service by 2025. The Guided MLRS Extended Range (GMLRS-ER) missile will extend the Army’s reach from 84 to 150km.
The 44 updated launchers will also be able to fire the US’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) which has a range of 499km and is expected in-service from 2024. These weapons will place the British Army at the cutting edge of global deep fires capability, ready to respond to long range air defence and missile threats presented by hostile actors.
MLRS is owned by the Royal Artillery and is operated by 26 Regiment RA from Larkhill, Wiltshire and 101 Regiment RA (Reserves) of Gateshead, Tyne & Wear.
499km distance makes that a very handy weapon.
The PrSM looks the bees knees and the Uk signed up for it from the very start:
The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is our next-generation, long-range precision-strike missile designed for the U.S. Army’s PrSM program. This new surface-to-surface weapon system will deliver enhanced capabilities to attack, neutralize, suppress and destroy targets using missile-delivered indirect fires out to 499+ kilometers. PrSM provides the Joint Force Commander with increased range, lethality, survivability and missile load out. These enhanced capabilities are critical to the successful execution of Fires in support of Multi-Domain Operations.
Lockheed Martin’s PrSM missile contains an insensitive munition (IM) propulsion system and IM energetic payload capable of defeating the PrSM target set. It also features an open systems architecture design for maximum affordability and flexibility, is modular for future growth and HIMARS and M270 compatible.
Lockheed Martin PrSM Specifics:
I thought 499 km range limitation had been scrapped after withdrawal from the INF treaty? So can probably go further than we’ll ever be allowed to know
They will keep the number in the hope of a future treaty with China.
Word on the street is ‘at least 800km…’
Cheers for that and rather impressive upgrades, as mentioned above upgrading ones that have been in storage could be a distinct bonus. Nice timing for us even if these upgrades would have been useful for Ukraine though arguable such superior versions would have been passed on. At least my cynicism is quashed on the matter.
The UK’s M270B1 were actually the most capable version out there up to 2 weeks ago…when the first US M270A2 was rolled out.
Basically the UK M270B1 is the same as the US M270A1, only it has additional armour protection for the crew (a good thing). The UK has already contracted to upgrade all of its B1 to A2 standard.
The A2 standard brings in the newer HIMARS style control system with the ability to use GMLRS-ER (tail control) and the new PrSM rocket that should arrive in 2023.
So basically the ones we have are tip top at present, and will be at the highest standard as anyone’s in the near future.
If you haven’t realised by now, everything runs on money. Accountants are simply there to tell you what can and can not be accomplished.
Thank you for your patronisation Matt I will paste it on a wall and refer to it every time I comment in future.🧨
One can hope.
Precisely
Agreed, have to look at the bigger picture. Ukraine in defending itself is doing us a favour, least we can do is equip them.
Exactly, existential threat to us all, the more we can do to help the Ukrainians the better. It is kit, they are losing actually combatants and population daily.
Hopefully funds will be found to enhance and increase our own capabilities, and adjust our tactics to suit lessons learned, it will be sheer madness if it isn’t.
👍
Very well out.
I think Russia has already passed that point where it has shown the world it is not a conventional power which could threaten NATO. I remember reading here a few years ago, people speculating that Russia would be able to significantly penetrate NATO’s defences. Personally, I did not believe it then and it’s clear that once NATO had reinforced Europe after an attack, Russia would have been in deep trouble. Putin and Lavrov has done so much damage to their country that it will take generations before Russia can be trusted and taken seriously again. As you mentioned, each day, Russia weakens itself in this pointless and barbaric war!
I think you are fundamentally correct though had the US not been there to feed through reinforcements Russias shear flow of equipment obsolete or not would I suspect have caused serious problems esp over time. Thankfully and finally Europe appears to be waking up and it needs to there is a growing if stupidly short sighted view in the US that it should not defend Europe and as the whole integrity over the pond is increasingly in question we really need to make sure we have both the quality and reserves/resources to deal with them in a protracted conflict. Even the US is concerned with the supply of javelins and Himars rockets.
Well, this is clearer now but only a year before in Feb 2021 Poland’s Ministry of Defense sought to see how its forces would fare in the event of an all-out Russian invasion (including having the yet-to-be-delivered F-35, Patriot air-defense system, and M142 HIMARS). It didn’t go well. It sought answers to what could happen were Russia to throw all of the forces it had in its Western Military District against Poland in a wargame called “Winter-20.” Polish forces sufferred a crushing defeat.
The wargame served as a reminder – at that time – that NATO’s Eastern flank was weak and vulnerable to Russian aggression. Poland’s plains have made it susceptible to invasion throughout history. By the fifth day of the mock conflict, Russian troops had reached the Polish defensive line along the Vistula River, while fighting to take Warsaw. Poland’s navy and air force faced complete obliteration and ceased to exist. Front-line Polish army units faced the loss of between 60 and 80 percent of their equipment. Russia obtained complete victory within five days.
Several thousand Polish military officers participated in the exercise; the scale was unprecedented in the history of post-Cold War Poland. They concluded Russia would presently easily overwhelm Polish and Baltic NATO units unless the United States and other allies beef up their troop commitments.
We now know of course that Putin’s much vaunted armed forces were nothing like the threat they appeared in 2021. But NATO also had weaknesses.
‘holistic’
Anyway, yes. And I’m very much in the camp that we are very unlikely to need to use them, and the Ukrainians need them. Ukraine weakening Russia benefits us greatly too.
We, of course, need to keep some for ourselves for training and in the very rare case we do need them.
Russia has never been a threat to NATO.Russia applied to JOIN NATO.That was vetoed by USA as they wished to solely dominate the minion nations.ie Britain,Germany,Italy ,Spain,which are part of the Grand Area.
Russia is no threat to anyone, useless wankers, apart from maybe young females and boys, but you Russian peasants have a history of raping your way through Europe!
There is a school of thought that says that the British army will not be pivotal to any hypothetical future conflict with Russia, our main contribution being naval and in the air, plus special forces, etc. This same thinking suggests that the war with Russia has started already, here and now and in Ukraine, never mind some hypothetical future conflict and that therefore these weapons are better there now than held back here for something that will be too late and might never happen if the right side wins now. I have some sympathy with this view. It’s difficult to know for sure
Indeed though I would guarantee that had this all gone as plan and NATO stood aside as he anticipated far worse would have developed in a few years as Putin wanted even greater status by humiliating the West to boost his worth to China while effectively establishing fuel and food domination over Europe. With the possibility of Trump or a clone returning to the White House in that timescale I’m sure he was thinking he would have us by the short and curlies at little real risk and Europe would capitulate and the US not really care looking only to China without any consideration that this is all a plan by the China/Russia axis to effectively take joint control of World events, ignore Europe and the US is writing and ensuring its own death warrant, just the date is in question. Democrats understand that while Trumpist Republicans can’t do lateral thinking despite the axis of evil pretty much advertising it this year.
As an aside and as cynical and critical of ignoring developing events as I am about the fall of Taiwan, even I was shocked to hear this week it’s not just commercial numbers but that up to 80% of US Military chips are manufactured in Taiwan, who the hell thought that was a good idea in light of China’s inevitable invasion, you really could not make it up. And we mock the Russians for being so reliant on the West. You can see how Xi and Mad Vlad thought their plan would succeed, it still might even if the US is belatedly trying to establish a Western alliance in chip production. That will take years at best.
Totally agree with this Spy
Legislation signed into law this week to promote onshore production of chips in the future. Current status ensures US will strenuously object to ChiCom annexation of Taiwan. 😁
TSMC a major SC manufacturer is just completing two plants in the US (Phoenix & New York).
The former owners of ARM and Imagination Technologies are finalising the permission to build a new plant to manufacture SC’s in a new manufacturing facility in a brand new start-up next to a new EV Battery factory in Coventry, West Midlands. They are leaders in AI tech and the SC factory squares their circle.
Thanks to Trump for doing those deals. Oh yea, we aren’t allowed to give Trump credit for anything he did while in office. Just like we can’t say under him the economy grew faster than ever with little to no inflation. Things sure have changed in 2 years for the worst.
Across multiple sites all ive ever seen is you licking trump’s ass and crying about the ‘libs’ give it a rest
High inflation is everywhere. Not just a problem in America. If Trump was president now, he would be dealing with the same problems.
Yeah because Trump did such an outstanding job dealing with a pandemic that killed millions of Americans. The world economy has problems due to the pandemic and Ukraine. It’s not been caused by anything Biden has done.
Yep – ARM Technologies – just up the road from me design a lot of very sophisticated Chips – virtually every Smart Phone and Computer has an ARM Chip or two in them.
It is the Programming Design that is important – they are currently being made cheaply elsewhere – Silicon Valley and the New facilities you have mentioned are both equally capable of manufacturing them……
That’s good to hear haven’t heard that one, considering Arm are the designer of the largest number of chips used in the World, it seems ridiculous if predictable that we have virtually no production of chips here, though I did just read a world leader in one particular if less complex sector is based here… though predictably again I read it only because it was likely to be bought by a foreign competitor.
Long live Herman Hauser who bemoaned our lack of commitment here in particular personally with Arm, it Generally takes a naturalised citizen to tell us how it is.
Funny that when Trump convinced TSMC to start building their chips in America liberals were mostly against it and said they were given to many tax breaks for building a plant in AZ. Now the liberals are spending 50+ billion on something that doesn’t build 1 single chip just hopes and dreams that one day Intel will use this tax payer charity for good and not waste it like so many others have done. lol
Correction, Intel has already broken ground on the first two SC manufacturing plants of a planned ten plant complex in the metropolitan Columbus, OH area, with a potential investment in excess of one hundred billion dollars. On the negative side of the ledger, targeting priority by Mad Vlad and the ChiComs gas presumably increased commensurately, beyond the baseline dictated by Wright-Patterson AFB. Oh well, the pyrotechnics would be spectacular, if brief…
…has…🙄
I hope you understand that this is a UK website and that ‘liberals/libs’ doesn’t mean the same thing in the UK and Europe.
You use it almost as a slur, when here it is just a political position (and a pretty tame/central one at that).
Like Intel indeed have done, it’s depressing that such a lame duck company is still the only major game in town for the US, through neglect they have little choice other than to support and hope eventually are years of failed hype and promises it can get its act together. Next 6 years will be crucial for them at least they have someone with a focused plan in charge now but the support of legacy and inherently in that their only reliable market it’s a tough job to retain that while adapting to serious changes to its change limiting inherent technology.
Would agree with all you’ve stated apart from the inevitability of an invasion, unless I’ve misinterpreted your intention to portray an attempt rather than a success.
Rgs
Yes you are right we shouldn’t presume an invasion will inevitably succeed though the war games they have been running through ex generals etc it seems in recent years in anticipation, should the US intervene give them victory all bar once I believe but at horrendous loss of two carriers and a quarter of the fleet. Not sure how optimistic that leaves me and the problem immediately would be a massive disruption and cost penalty to chip availability for years thereafter. Then you have the risk of North Korea invading the South … yep whatever the cost we need to radically spread production around the World but do we have time.
Personally:-
We do have time, I’m sure. Looks to me that China will be the US’ and ‘West’s’ only meaningful competitor since Putinia seems to have pretty much shot its bolt. Nigh on brain dead but still twitching.
But that won’t give China carte blanche. If Xi ‘gets’ anything from Russia’s demise, it ought to be – encourage rapport with the rest of us. Don’t hold your breath; Putin had the same chance. May not be too long before he faces the nightmare of being Xi’s puppet. Perhaps viscerally a worse fate than any he’d imagined the west intended.
Just because Taiwan is CURRENTLY manufacturing 80% of US Military Chips – DOESN’T mean that Silicon Valley CANNOT make them if required. The DESIGN of the Chip is the important part – Manufacture is just a reasonable simple Photographic process….
It would make sense if critical military assets like chips are manufactured in countries that use them. Rely on foreign production leaves you exposed – think having to import all the PPE during the pandemic.
Plus chip factories take several years to build and get running – a bit late when the shooting starts.
I think that is somewhat optimistic intel is years behind in certain aspects of what TSMC can do indeed it got 5 years behind its own published timescale by 2015 and why now TSMC is temporarily at least producing some of its chips right now till it can hit ‘new targets’.
It’s true that most of these chips are designed in the West and it’s true production of these chips could be set up anywhere and everywhere within reason if you tolerate costs and I think the current Finfet production machines themselves are mostly procured out of Belgium but it’s the time and cost to do so that would be a massive challenge. We see how gas, oil and grain shortages are hitting us now and sources for them already exist. I hope that TSMC is also depositing its own IP and makes it available off Island if required so should the worst happen it’s unique processes can also be exploited, there really is currently no large scale alternative presently, so as many of its factories and process design facilities can continue in the West the better. This cannot simply be repeated overnight even with the highly skilled specialist chip companies in the west the scale is massive. A worldwide downturn will occur far greater than we have now. For years after any invasion.
Out of interest the original Arm chips designed by Apple were from a company it absorbed that produced specialist chips for ballistic missiles. Not sure what happened to that aspect of their business but I remember the US Govt was pretty spooked about the possibility of losing those unique and vital chips.
We’d be no use in the air. The paltry number of aircraft and pilots would be tied up defending uk airspace. That’s what happens when bean counters use multi role aircraft as an excuse to cull the number of squadrons.
Just the QRA armed with meteor would take care of any russian aircraft that managed to make it to the UK leaves plenty of other jets along with our allies to take care of the Soviet junk
Uk QRA has 2 aircraft in the North and 2 in the south. It is easy to provide more low cost targets than we have high cost aircraft/ missiles.
This is specially easy with low cost UAVs.
4 each
Exactly. Russia has cruise missile carrying bombers that can launch from range. Whether they’d use them against the UK mainland is irrelevant. Just the threat of them is enough to tie up aircraft defending against it. Russia knows this and would be very vocal about using them to tie up resources.
Those handful of fancy multi role aircraft will become the most over spec’d interceptors in the world.
Multi role aircraft don’t work as a force multiplier if you don’t have enough of them. Regardless how good they are.
Don’t forget the lack of pilots either, we can’t even get them through bloody training these days! Instructors are having to man front line jets due to lack of pilot numbers. That’s the 21st century RAF for you even without the pressure of actually being at war!
Perhaps we can borrow some Ukrainians, indeed a good reason to start training them on Typhoons as is resentful being considered.
If the RAF would be no use in the air which air force other than the US is of any use exactly?
Good question! The Europeans are as guilty as we are of using the Americans as an excuse to underarm their defences.
Careful don’t show any sign of implied critism of accountants 😋😂😇
simalar to the idea that european forces out gunned hitler and our land forces wernt needed. didnt work out too well
There are spare MLRS not being used across nato countries. If the uk can provide systems that are already running and then backfill it gets systems where they are needed quicker. The uk bought more M270 systems than they use now anyway so there will be spare systems.
Main thing is getting Ukraine what it needs to push the Russians back. If Russia is victorious where will they go next? Who will follow there example and invade who ever they like?
Personally I want more kit to be supplied and the uk to order equipment to fill the gaps left from donations.
This Ukraine situation is on a scale of importance as COVID and should be treated as such. If Ukraine can push russia back it could secure peace in Europe for a long time to come.
There are only spare systems because the UK only have 1 regiment left. That is less than 10% of what would be needed in war at the rate they are being consumed in the Ukraine
Taking them from store or borrowing them from elsewhere in Nato reduces the ability to sustain operations and is a long term Victory for Putin.
Will take years to get it replaced since Britain will have to be in line with America that will need to replace theirs first.
Don’t forget that the US mainly use HIMARS mostly – there will be plenty sitting in the Desert in Utah, New Mexico etc in the Army Equivalent of Davis Montham Storage Area along with theThousands of M1a1 Abrahams that are sitting there- they are delivered direct from the Manufacturer.?….
With Donald Trump in the white house again we will not have guaranteed acess.
Doesn’t look like much of a concern now. Donnie looking more and more likely to be sitting in a cell rather than the Oval Office.
Even longer if we never start.
Being supported by some JEF members. Interesting. We are leading a real and highly capable power bloc in Northern Europe and the North Atlantic. Good people.
Yes vitally important I think the north has been our weak spot which is why I have long supported the Swedes and Fins joining NATO it greatly strengthens this se tor and will give all these northern members confidence in standing jointly up to Russia. Before Norway and the Baltic States were in great danger of being cut off and becoming indefensible without Putin actually having to invade a NATO Country. With a Trump in power would we have had the will to prevent this? Now such an operation is almost entirely cut off while his Baltic fleet effectively neutralised and northern fleet much more under threat. To have risked that NATO strengthening clearly Putin had far greater aims than Ukraine, it was purely the first step and if he had indeed accomplished it in weeks then moving on to the Finnish border would those Countries dared to join as they are?
Salami tactics as Jim Hacker was told I think. Take things a slice at a time. Awful though the war in the Ukraine is it’s been a wake up call for the west and almost certainly the end to Russia’s aggression in Europe.
They are not capable if you look at numbers and stockpiles and not the top trump headline capabilities of single systems.
I’m sorry Graham. I don’t understand what your saying. It’s probably too hot.😅
Slaughter the Ruskis, slaughter them all!
Thats nasty as only those in power are really in need of shooting as they are also lying and depriving their own population. Most are regular normal folks that at least are not being dictated to by the WOKE Brigade like the West are.
Yes objecting to all that institutionalised mass rape in Prisons is just pandering to the liberals I guess. No wonder they would prefer to fight in Ukraine.
Woke Brigade in the West? You must be referring to the Republican party here in the states, that rigged the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs. Wade, and made abortion illegal in many US states, even in cases of rape and incest of a child. I agree I don’t like being dictated to by these ideologues. Their calculus is that every single additional human fetus is more valuable than entire species being made extinct. I can think of few things less respectful of life on this planet.
Freedom so long as you do what we want. 😂😂😂
Rigged? lol. Just like the last election was rigged. Roe vs Wade should have never been passed in the first place. Try reading the U.S. Constitution and stop getting your news from CNN and the rest of the liberal media.
The USA. A fantastic country, with many friendly, caring, proud, good people. Spoilt by idiotic, simpleton, backward views from brain washed folks on the wrong side of politics. Donald Trump must laugh himself to sleep at night, amazed so many people believe the simplistic crap that comes out of his ridiculous mouth. That man was the worst thing to happen to America on so many levels. It isn’t just about Left vs Right. He is just a man with a low moral compass.
“Sleepy Dan” doesn’t have anywhere else to go now that he has been utterly humiliated by the posters over at the “The War Zone”. McConnell rigging the Supreme Court is plain to see and well-documented. That the Supreme Court previously respected precedent and established constitutional rights (stare decisis) such as the right to abortion, is also well-documented. On the other hand, scores of people are being sent to jail for false claims of a rigged election but Sleepy Dan is still making the claim because he doesn’t believe in the Constitution and the peaceful transfer of power, but rather a Queens Mob Boss who was the agent of the highest bidder among hostile foreign powers. He is stuck in an endless trump/gop > foxnews/russian troll feedback loop, choosing delusion over reality . . .
Well said Ron. I feel a tad sorry about the current state of the Republican party. A party with a great history and some good leaders over the history of the USA. Reduced to proping up a crook like Trump. I’m visiting Boston in 10 days time. I can’t wait! 👍🇬🇧🇺🇲
If violations of the Espionage Act by their Dear Leader don’t give them some pause, nothing will. There has been a lot of good news this summer and the hot, humid nights of the past few weeks are finally behind us now, here in New England. It is a great time to visit. Enjoy your visit!
No how very wrong! Many of the Russian peasants in uniform are cutting about stealing, raping and murdering. Total scum who deserve to be destroyed by the Ukrainian forces!
Exactly this. Snot the lot of them.
Agreed!
That’s war, you don’t win without killing the enemy.
Its not the leaders raping and killing in Ukraine.
It’s not the leaders cheering them on from home.
A dead Russian is no threat tomorrow so keep on killing them.
Agree, but with the proviso that, if the majority (n.b.) of Russians support action in Ukraine, then they are due precious little regard.
Baseline remains; no-one has attacked Russia – even its Kaliningrad exclave.
Rgs
A tad harsh
I blame that knobski Putin the 8=> head.
A400M has flown to the Falklands using aerial refueling for the first time.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/raf-continues-roll-out-of-a400m-capabilities-with-first-operational-aerial-refuelling
This is fine, but it’s time to give the Ukrainians longer distance weapons… Yes even longer than that. Like Hitler, Putin only recognises strength.
Well it’s certainly interesting that the moment Turkey shot down a Russian bomber making our hearts skip a beat they became so much friendlier isn’t it. In reality he knows he can’t take on Turkey so bites his lip and tries to be best buddies. Clearly he isn’t as yet that scared of NATO decision makers though hopefully that is changing. But like this ‘northern alliance’ cooperating so closely Europe generally has to make sure it can defend against Russia alone if required, thankfully this war has shown that is achievable it’s the willpower to do so that may still be in doubt in Putin’s mind. But with Poland developing its abilities and others stiffening their stance and capabilities this is very achievable now if complacency in France and Germany doesn’t return.
Just need the US to supply rockets with the reach to hit that bridge now.
That would severely p!ss Putin off 😏
I suspect this will happen if in limited fashion both parties support the idea. It’s interesting that HARM missiles are being supplied without it being announced, these too were deemed a potentially dangerous escalation so I suspect longer range missiles will get there but with joint agreement over potential targets. After seeing all those Russian holidaymakers desperately running back to Russia on that bridge after the Crimea attack it sure would be great to see that bridge hit. I think it will happen even if bringing it down is quite a difficult complex business. But the pr in just hitting it will be massive and holiday makers will have their own personal view of this war that they dont get through their lying media.
In a related matter, has anyone noted online reports of potential damage inflicted in Saki {Saky?) airfield “incident”? Preliminary reports list the damage/destruction of the following aircraft assigned to the 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment:
– Five SU-24 (bombers)
– Eight SU-27 (fighters)
– Four SU-30M (fighter-bombers)
– One IL-20RT (telemetry aircraft)
– Eight Mi-8 (helicopters)
Ukrainian government sources stated all munitions utilized were of Ukrainian origin (Neptune? suicide drones?)
If this list proves to be even remotely accurate, the 43rd is now combat ineffective. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving group of slobbering Orcs! 😁
Apologies, errata…six Mi-8 helicopters
A lot of talk about it being hrim-2 maybe. Whatever was I hope they have plenty more
I couldn’t believe there was actually Russians holidaying in Crimea. It’s part of a war zone! They must be getting brain washed by the media back home still. Hopefully the truth will start to filter through the ordinary population. It’s a tough fight to let normal Russians know what’s happening.
Reminiscent of the first Battle of Bull Run in the American Civil War. The landed gentry of Washington D.C. and nearby cities decided to attend and observe the Union forces dispatch the Confederates, while enjoying a picnic. The Rebs had a different idea of what constituted a pleasant ibterlude, and routed the Yanks. The gentry were forced into an unceremonious, rather hurried departure. Believe some spilled their afternoon tea. 😁
I couldn’t actually believe ordinary Russians were on holiday in crimea! There was clips of them upset, annoyed they were leaving holiday early and stuck in traffic to get out. They must still be getting brain washed by the media at home. Fingers crossed some truth starts to trickle through. I have no doubt there are a lot of nice peaceful Russians that would not want the war if they could speak freely
The footage of sunbathing holiday makers will never make it onto the media in Russia itself.
Ive spoken to a few Russians recently and they genuinely are of a completely different opinion to what is going on to what we are. These are people who dont even live in Russia and they genuinely have bought the media from Russia.
Knock me down with a feather. Most Russians believe their media. Just as most Brits believe our media. And they are poles apart. Quelle surprise.
Well bugger me with a christmas tree, the Russian troll knows sarcasm. Have you been on a advanced online course recently to try hide the true roots?
Well if Russians who have access to all media wish to believe the ‘special operation’ to eradicate ‘Nazism’ that ‘threatens’ the motherland that just highlights the type of idiots the world has to deal with.
No feathers involved in knocking Russians and their lick spittle hangers on down, just Javs, NLAWS and a lot of skilled brave Ukrainians. No feathers old troll, no feathers.
The allied disinformation campaign continues space: today’s rumor mill has op carried out by Ukrainian special forces trained by SAS. Presumably not totally implausible, but really….,🙄
….apace…. autocorrect does me again.
I think both Ourselves, who hardly need it, and Russia are being conditioned to that inevitability by recent attacks close to & within Crimea. Of course, Raz can always clear off as a ‘gesture of goodwill’. As always, we await the Whitehouse.
Good luck with senile, sleepy Joe running things. Remember he was the idiot that said he was “ok” with a limited Russian invasion of Ukraine. Funny how the liberal media forgot that. lol
I don’t want to bring US politics into this, it is it’s own disaster area.
Change the record. Trump lost. He also praised Putin as a genius and smart after Russia invaded. Funny how you forgot that.
Can you please investigate if theses items are bring backfilled. It is good that we are giving equipment. However war is about numbers and our war stocks were less than a few days supply before the war
. Resupply is essential.
We give our MLRS to Ukraine.
Norway gives us their MLRS mothballed since 2005, which we then update to latest standard.
Ukraine gets MLRS, we get backfilled with equipment with less miles on the clock, Norway doesn’t have to store equipment it no-longer operates.
It’s win all round, well except for the Russians 😏
Yes but it’s not the launchers I’m worried about. I wonder how long our war stock of MLRS missiles would last?
If we were at war, we’d be firing the same missiles, at the same enemy. I don’t think it matters whether we’re firing them or the Ukrainians fire them. So losing as they’re killing Orcs who cares 🤷🏻♂️
However, the whole of NATO must now reassess if the amount of war stock it maintains is sufficient for a prolonged conflict. The West has been astounded at the rate that Ukraine expends munitions against the Russians, even though it’s apparent they are selective in their targeting compared to the Russians random mass bombardments. It’s likely any NATO army would burn through its munitions at a similar rate – and there’s nobody to resupply NATO in the way NATO is resupplying Ukraine.
Pretty sure any NATO army wouldn’t be going toe to toe in an artillery battle. They would go Air Superiority and mass precision stuff.
Why do we always assume any western army with loads of modern kit would not do any better than plucky Ukraine with a load of ex-Soviet stuff and a few bits of kit that western armies have going spare.
A fully equipped NATO Army would not end up in trench warfare with this shower.
The fact that Ukraine is still existing and fighting should tell us how pants Russia is doing.
Ukraine are brave and tough, but if they had half the stuff a NATO Army has they would really be kicking ass. They are resisting with handouts and tanks, aircraft and other kit which is no match for the most modern NATO stuff in any depth.
Yes we’d go for air superiority and then ground-attacks from the air rather than artillery… assuming of course we have enough war-stocks of air-to-air and then air-to-ground missiles.
Which is the point, are NATO war-stocks sufficient for a prolonged conflict? You’re the one assuming war-stocks are simply how many artillery shells you have. 🤦🏻♂️
Exactly. Understand and fully support transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine by NATO members; however, the question remains whether anyone is adequately addressing resupply issue.
With the strain about to be put on the public purse it’s hardly credible to suggest any equipment operated by British forces will be replaced in the short or median term. My view, and I am certainly no expert, if any cash is available we need to put into pilot training; getting all the Typhoons/ F35b flight worthy and increasing our stores of Meteors, Brimstone and tomahawks. If things in Ukraine start to go pear shape we should not be afraid to intervene and air power with the help of someone else’s AWACS is the best and most effective way we can do so.
Looks like next PM going to need to fine money for 3GDP on Defence ,other wise our guys may be left with Boots 🙄💂
‘Boots’ All made in China too….just like the RN’s new No 8’s (which are really rubbish even compared to the old look).. Services good kit or why bother at all?
There are a number of these in public ownership, I wonder if these may now be called upon to fill the gap back in the UK?
No need , we’ve only supplied 6 including this latest batch. That’s only half of the number Norway has in storage available to backfill our number.
It seems like we MAY be buying in a load more weapons, this time for $70M odd FCA Kazakhstan airport via a Jordanian company where the UK is the End User, which looks unlikely. The two draft contracts include:
Also a request for 200 BTR and 1,000 120mm mortar rounds from the Kazakhs seems to be in the air.
Not sure who might gain from going to all the work to fabricate this but this is a Ukrainian site claiming to have got the documents from their MoD. Details of this are at https://www.stalkerzone.org/great-britain-buys-weapons-in-kazakhstan-for-ukraine-documents/
Who cares, more ammo for Ukraine to kill the dirty rapist scum who are suddenly gaining on the back foot! This same dirty Russian peasants who you fully support! Don’t see an issue here or even the point of your, again, boring as shite post!
Actually the Russians are running out of peasants and now recruiting convicted murders and rapists from their jails. They should feel right at home in the Russian army…
Is that the guards in Russian prisons then! It’s looking like they may be the worse than the inmates for rape, torture, murder etc
Agreed, dross recruting more and worse dross.
IF that is true; given the vast majority of what you post isn’t, then that is going to be a political and diplomatic blow for Putin given that Kazakhstan is a member of the CSTO.
Sean,
Its just got worse for Putin as I read this yesterday:
“”The Embassy of Uzbekistan in Russia cautioned the Uzbek diaspora that any form of participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine is punishable by up to 10 years in Uzbek prison, effectively denouncing Russian volunteer recruitment efforts among Central Asian immigrants.””
Maybe the Uzbeks have realised that after Ukraine and Moldova, Putin might look in their direction with regard to expanding his totalitarian empire.
Maybe?
They definitely have. Hence why the ‘peacekeepers’ have gone (well, Putin needed the VDV meatbags too). And after what’s happened to Belarus (and of course Georgia and Ukraine), they can see the writing on the wall.
They feel somewhat secure though, due to decent relations with the PRC. Obviously not want we want in the end, but better than them being on Russia’s side.
JIMK wrote:
Help me here JIMK, as I dont understand where you are going with this?
1) Are you saying this is fake news?
2) Are you claming that the Uk is wrong to furnish the Ukr with soviet era weapons, which they are familiar with?
By putting in the qualifications I did I was just trying to avoid getting some here from jumping on me with the normal steam of invective but failing in that objective.
When I find information that I think might have been missed by some here who might find it of interest i post it, usually waiting until there is an appropriate thread.
In this case I don’t know if its fake news or not but I suspect its probably genuine as, given its current strategy, its exactly what I would expect our Government, among others, to be doing, since as you point out, supplying ammunition for their current equipment makes so much more sense, for a whole raft of reasons, than supplying NATO standard artillery.
JIMK wrote:
The problem you have JIMK, is you have made a name for yourself as a Russian appologist. 99% of the posters are pro Uk, for example I wear a Union Jack enamel badge on my Barbour because I am proud of being British (still waiting for the day somebody tries to berate me for it) but the thing is each and each and everyone of us is happy to berate the country when it gets it wrong. That stance is what lets you down, not once have you berated Moscow and come on here and promote this POV that Mosocw is unfallable, that it can do no wrong and that the West is in the wrong. Anyway must go as I am watching the Amazon TV series Jack Reacher.
Oh and before i bugger off allow me to avail you about being British Military, you learn to work as a team, you learn about brotherhood, you learn about compromise and you learn not to shag your best mates sister. No wait, that’s a different subject. What I’m trying to say is we stick together through thick and thin, we don’t have any time for bullshit and we say it as it is. Yes some will never understand us, but tell me, how many people have you met who would die for you never mind let you sleep with their sister. (No wait that still is a different subject) that is what sets us apart from the rest. but the simple fact of the matter is, most of us will put our hands up and admit when we are wrong. its what we are good at, because if you are tasked with doing something you have to tell the truth each and every time. Unfortunatly that trait is not as common as it used to be. Saying that, my ex had no problem telling me that there was an unoffical bus stop outside our house. Boy did i get some stick from the lads about how she was getting shagged by a white man. Actually a lot of them. Oh yeah we also come with a really good sense of humour.
You are officially top ninja on this site! A type of ninja johnskie will never ever understand!!!!!!!
Good post 👍🇬🇧
Yaaaaaaaawn
Of course this story is all fake news! I mean with all the hundreds or rockets fired by the Ukr have ANY of them hit Hospitals,shopping centres,schools apartments etc? Got to be fake hasn’t it Johnski?
To be fair, it was a qualification.
Our Johnsky has been quite normal and reasonable recently. I guess the Russian setbacks have left him little to boast about. Of course, he won’t be complimentary of the Ukrainians and those helping them, but that would be too expect too much.
As already pointed out though, if Johnsky wishes to continue posting here, then he’ll always have to post such qualifications as his reputation here is set very firmly.
Thank you John. I hope it is all completely accurate.
I think my money is being well spent helping democratic Ukraine defend itself against fascist imperial aggression.
As a fellow British taxpayer what do you think?
Pretty sure the Ukrainian’s would benefit?
No issues for me, destroying Russian scum in Ukraine or the inner German border, this kit is doing its job and doing it well! The Ukrainians are now really looking at the deep battle, with a mindset to move forward and retake ground! The Orcs have bitten off more than they can chew, and while they run out of platforms and people (and resort to even less trained muppets and museum pieces) NATO will keep Ukraine trained and supplied and slowly move to the offensive! Good job all round!
I have greater sympathy for our drip feed approach on two counts, at least in theory: a) it permits UK to replenish
b) it enables more accurate track & trace with regard to Ukraine’s front line distribution. Who can forget the picture of a civvy hatchback loaded the the gunwhales with anti tank weapons en route to Russia?
On that basis, I’ll move away for now from my suspicion that We (i.e. the West) were content with a status quo scripted to cause Putinia prolonged pain over a prolonged period, as politically advantageous as that may be, but with Ukrainians paying the blood price.
So what do we use if we are giving them away?
British army, fitted for but not with artillery. Or much of anything!
What do we use? The assets we have in place in 26, 14, and 101 RA.
The military does not issue every piece of kit it possesses to front line units.
I do not believe the forward fleet allocations are affected by giving 6 to Ukraine, which are being backfilled by Norway.
We only have 42 systems in 1 regiment and utterly inadequate reserves.The Ukrainian war are consuming hundreds of systems and thousands of missiles.
Our european allies also have also got pathetic stores.
Taking from Norway to replace our donations without restarting the production lines reduces Nato stockpiles and is a gift to Putin.
2 regiments, as the 3 Army Reserve batteries in 101RA I believe have launchers too and augment 26 in war.
The army’s MLRS total is not all in use, some are in reserve, or with the School of RA ( 14RA )
A 2nd regiment of regulars is due to form but there s some smoke and mirrors in that as the batteries in 26 RA are split between them.
Europe is not on a war footing. I don’t see that changing.
This donation to Ukraine does not reduce front line capability. As for reserves, yes they’re thin in many areas, but not all.
The TA regiment is not a real regiment. The TA abandoned the ability to deploy whole regiments years ago .
They are only able to provide individual reinforcements and do not have a full set of equipment.
There will shortly only be 2 regular batteries
IRs yes, not entire regiments. That applies to most of the AR, but not all.
I believe some individual batteries can also deploy, such as those which form the 4th fire battery to regular regiments in war.
2 regular batteries? No, not correct. There will be 4.
Both 26RA and 3 RHA will have 2 Fire batteries each, plus TAC group batteries.
3 RHA currently uses LG and will convert to become a 2nd GMLRS regiment.
See this from RA in house magazine
https://www.thegunners.org.uk/uploads/Gnr%20Mar_22_interactive_version.pdf
Around 30 of our GMLRS are in front line use, front line will increase slightly.
Regards 3 RHA conversion…
“3rd Regiment RHA will re-role to the MLRS with C Battery RHA and D Battery RHA equipped with M270 launchers. J (Sidi Rezegh) Battery RHA will become the Regimental Headquarters Battery as J (Sidi Rezegh) Headquarters Battery RHA and the title of M Battery RHA will be placed into suspended animation.”
26 RA will also have 2 fire batteries, and 101 RA provides the 3rd Battery for each of the 2 regular regiments.
Cheers.
And another thing, it appears there is no longer a production line for M270.
1. We’re giving nowhere near all of it away.
2. What we are donating is doing what it was intended for. And our soldiers don’t have to risk their lives doing so. Sadly, the Ukrainians do, but they want to as it’s their home.
I’m glad the UK is part of a multi nation effort to ensure Ukrane has the means to resist the Russian invasion most of these weapons would probably lie in a depot till their expiry date without firing a shot and then be scrapped or sold on. Yes the UK has provided a lot of valuable kit but we are a rich nation , look at the baltic states and the former soviet satellites and see how much kit they have donated. I would like to see the UK donate more, if we are defo getting rid of warrior AS90 etc now would be good time to sell to Ukraine, The Russians will take about 10y before they can invade anyone again . China is a different kettle of fish but if we get involved will probably be airforce and navy
Yes. so true!
I’ve got it now. The cunning plan is to give everything away to Ukraine so the British Army will be forced to get an up-to-date replacement. Why didn’t we see it before? Well done Ben, I see your plan now.
Or do I?
Well sure enough, the situation is forcing through some decision ‘at pace’ as the saying goes: updating MLRS, offloading protected patrol vehicles and increasing the Boxer order, CH3. The fate of Ajax must be holding up key decisions on the roles of the remaining Boxers.
How come our paralysed government is able to donate more weapons for the Russians to destroy in Ukraine, but not able to tackle the cost of living crisis at home until a new Fuehrrer has been elected in early September?
Just like in America. People elected a senile, old fool to run things and right after he took office Russia invades Ukraine, inflation goes through the roof, stock market crashes and we’re heading for a recession. Voters are stupid. Simple.
I don’t know why don’t you go visit a political website to find out
So whats the answer to the cost of living crisis exactly? What magical solution are other western governments using that our paralysed government are not implementing?
Considering the majority of the issue relates to the Russian invasion maybes supplying weapons is actually part of the solution or do the labour supporting papers not look at that point of view?
SD wrote:
Yes there is an energy crisis and from standing back and looking at the media there is a lot of scare mongering going on, everyday they will find some obscure outfit who will claim that prices are rising, the yesterday it was £3500, today it was £4000 no doubt tomorrow they will find somebody to state £5000
And for all the screaming that the gov is doing nothing, they fail to mention the billions handed over to people in which to offset the price rises, so we had the £150 council tax rebate, followed by the £650 cost-of-living payment and £400 energy grant? and those with a disability will receive an extra £150, granted the less well off will only receive the former, but everybody will receive the £400. Its early days and no doubt more help will materialise as we go along.
The interesting thing is, there is actually very little shortage of hydrocarbons for the Uk, the issue is due to Moscow cutting its supply to Europe (which it has been doing since 2019) resulting in worldwide prices rising. Interestingly (can’t remember the date) Gas used to be sold a lot cheaper than crude, then Russia and Iran (so post 1979) won the right to link gas prices to crude oil.(make of that what you will) And lets not forget that the rise is due to Russia enforcing hardship on Europe so as to have them sign off on its invasion of the Ukraine. The problem with appeasing Moscow regards Gas, is they see that as a weakness they can exploit and as we saw time, and time and time again with the Ukraine, they will cut the flow in the middle of winter and demand a price increase. The problem for Moscow is that that the early win they presumed didn’t materialise and I’ll put money on the table that they were banking on the liberal European political elites to capitulate in which to ensure the gas taps remained on. Hasn’t happened and so Putin is dragging out cutting the flow of gas (note how he cuts off one country at time whilst restricting flows to the rest in which to ensure the media (looks at the BBC) can do their chicken licken bit. I mean whilst the media promote doom and gloom how many people heard that British Gas signed a deal with the Us yesterday to supply £7 billion worth of gas to the Uk, or that in June they signed a deal with Norway to supply an extra 12% of the Uks needs. Or that in June the European Union, Egypt and Israel agreed to supply the bloc with more natural gas as part of efforts to cut supplies from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine or that in March the European Union signed a deal with the US to deliver an additional 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquified natural gas (LNG) this year, and increase its supplies over the coming years, then there’s African nations willing to cash in . Yes Moscow’s reduction of hydrocarbons have impacted on the price around the world, but once other flows open up, the price will fall, lets not forget the Wests gravitations towards green energy (which ironically is also part of the problem due to closing coal fired and nuclear power stations, which explains why France with its numerous nuke power plants has so far managed to weather the recent price increases (granted the recent election may have played a part there)) will rob oil production nations of the political hold they have over others.
So in answer to your post, the British government has reacted to the current price rises in Gas and oil, but it has taken steps in which to mitigate those rises, the problem we have the leftwing media (and political parties) have used this crisis in which to try and remove the government on a lie add the Unions, Myself I would put money on the table that a lot of this anger towards the government is generated in Moscow, simply in which to remove a government they knew would stand behind the Ukraine. (looks at the paltry Western EU stance) and replace it with one which would do as it would be told from Russia.
How come the Free power promised from all the green projects windmills etc cost the same as gas , ever feel we have been taken for a mug should have gone nuclear 20y ago
Interesting response. The first two paras are bang on the money but you go off the rails in parts of the third.
Under normal circumstances pipeline gas supply reducing into Europe can be due to two things, a Russian decision to cut availability or customers reducing orders. You are ignoring the latter.
Traditionally Russian gas has been supplied to Europe on long term, often fixed price contracts. Then, a few years back the EU, noticing that at that time the spot market for gas was as low or lower than contract told the customers in the EU to cancel their contracts and buy from the Russians at spot. This the Russians hated as although they could see times ahead when spot might be higher they wanted the security of long term prices. Anyway they conceded and it worked well for the EU until winter 2020/21 which was cold and long in central Europe causing large volumes to be bought from Russia (NS1 running at 110% of rated capacity in March) and storage being drained. The event then occurred that triggered the price rises, EU trade customers decided to delay buying the extra gas to refill storage until the normal price drop in the Summer of 2021. But the City traders read the market better than they did and kept the price of gas high leading to the situation where by August the customers had to buy and we saw the soaring prices last autumn as a result. To say that this was Russia “enforcing hardship on Europe” flies in the face of the facts. Russia is not demanding increases, it is the traders playing the market and appears to be willing to reinstate the old contracts.
This chart, turning the cost of gas into the cost of producing electricity from it, puts it quite clearly,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZukulWWQAESne6?format=jpg&name=small
Meanwhile you have to hand it to the Hungarians, last August they realised what was about to happen so instead of going down with the EU spot ship, they got the Gazprom man in and got their old contract back at virtually the old price around $275 ThousandCuM. Within 3 months all the countries around them were paying 5x that price and it has been even higher since. So what did they do? Oban went to Moscow and upped the volume and increased the contract duration. Serbia did a deal in May this year at $310. What did Germany do? Under ‘advice’ from the US they walked away from the massive NS2 fixed price deal at similar prices, committing virtual economic suicide.
Gazprom nowadays only cuts off supplies to counties that won’t pay in rubles. Pretty fair given the West has seized Russia’s $300B so payment in them is like giving the gas away.
All those deals you mention are great but I shudder at what price we had to pay and how much of it we will feed across the Channel.
It is not Russia’s reduction in supply that has caused the price increases it is our sanctioning the supply that has done it. We are now in the ridiculous situation where large volumes of Russian crude are being shipped to India and Saudi of all places, being refined and then shipped into sanctioning countries with no mention of source on the Bill of Lading. The EU seems to have agreed that EU owned tankers can move Russian oil as long as it isn’t to the EU.
As to France, their nuclear power system is up shit creek, running at about 50% capacity all last winter due in part to fractures in power stations that are up to 36 years into their 30 year life. As a result at the end of last year they became net importers of electricity, including from us, for the first time in many years. EDF is effectively insolvent.
JIMK wrote:
I knew that you would take umbrage with how I stated that Moscow reduced the flow of Gas to Europe in 2021, in which to place a little pre-emptive pressure on the union regards reacting to its invasion and subsequent war on the Ukraine and for you to claim that it was down to Europe reducing orders is actually a fabrication on your behalf. How can I say so, because it was well reported at the (I will now post 3 articles due to the single link rule remember 7 Ps) time and from before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
ENERGY SECURITY FEBRUARY 14, 2022
What if Russia cuts off gas to Europe? Three scenarios
Since last summer, Europe has been in the midst of a natural gas supply crisis – a bind that an escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis only makes worse.
It is normal for Russia to provide more gas to Europe than is contractually obligated, especially when prices and demand are high. Yet even though European gas consumption increased by about 5.5 percent and prices hit record highs, Russia refrained from pumping any extra gas into the continent. European countries typically use this extra gas to fill their storage facilities during the summer. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly put pressure on Europe, especially Germany, to quickly approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project (which bypasses Ukraine), and to sign new long-term gas delivery contracts as preconditions for supplying additional gas to Europe.
The move seemed part and parcel of Moscow’s hybrid war against the West (the European Union in particular) and Ukraine. If the Kremlin does decide to invade Ukraine, triggering sanctions by the EU and United States, it could retaliate by cutting gas supplies – potentially by crippling amounts.
Weaponizing gas exports Natural gas accounts for about 20 percent of Europe’s primary energy consumption, as well as 20 percent of its electricity generation. It is also used for heating and industrial processes. Russia is Europe’s largest gas supplier, delivering an estimated 168 billion cubic meters (bcm) to the continent (including Turkey) in 2021, short of its own projections of 183 bcm. In the last months of 2021, Russia delivered only 19 bcm through Ukraine – less than half of the agreed 40 bcm capacity, during a time when deliveries should have been increasing due to the onset of winter. Some worry that in a wider conflict between Ukraine and Russia, these deliveries could be severely disrupted, potentially for months or years.
………………………………….
Have a butchers at the chart, the flow of gas to Europe during 2021 started falling as of August, now allow me to remind you of this snippet you posted above:
Do be so kind as to try and substaniate your claim how Europe purchased large volumes of gas from Russia during the winter months of 2021 when the charts (and numerious media articles) state otherwise
Funny enough Moscow started carrying out huge miltary exercises at the time. the above article i have cut and pasted reveals that is the time when Europe usually starts filling its t anks for winter and which resulted in huge price rises. Its as if Putin was sending a message to Europe which was:
“if you think this is bad it will be a lot worse when I send my troops into Ukraine. So be good little vassels or else, the lights will go next Christmas”
Thanks for your replies. Don’t you go to bed? I need to do some more research.
JIMK wrote:
New book, so I was reading late into the night , I turned on the computer during a coffee break
You seem to be neglecting your job johnskie troll, or is it best to stick with twitter trolling as there are less subject matter experts on there? You lose every day on here, every post, every day you are found wanting! To many professionals on here for your propaganda to work. Good to see your not on here any longer, with your disgusting peasant attitude and support to illegal invasion, rape, murder and torture. We are much cleaner, smells much nicer, with your lack of sad, puke ridden propaganda. Good to see you have funked off…..or have you, as I have used your correct avatar and your troll app will pick it up and therefore you will need to reply….
Article 2:
IEA chief accuses Russia of worsening Europe’s gas crisis
Russia is holding back at least a third of the gas it could be sending to Europe, according to Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), reports the Financial Times on its frontpage. Birol said Russia was limiting supply at a time of “heightened geopolitical tensions”, the paper says, adding that this “impl[ies] that Moscow has manufactured an energy crisis for political ends”. It quotes Birol saying: “We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour…Russia could increase deliveries to Europe by at least one-third – this is the key message.” The FT adds: “The comments from Birol are his most pointed yet on Russia’s role in the energy crisis. They come as households in Europe expect steep increases in energy bills after wholesale gas and electricity prices hit record levels.” It notes that Russian gas deliveries to Europe were down 25% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2021, according to the IEA.
Article 3
Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss
The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.
He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.
“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”
The IEA’s most damning criticism of Russia’s energy policy to date has emerged after the Kremlin downplayed hopes of diplomatic solutions for the ongoing Ukraine crisis on Tuesday, before a meeting in Brussels between Russia and Nato’s 30 member states.
This week Russian forces deployed along the Ukraine border conducted a live-fire military exercise involving 3,000 troops and tanks, in a clear rejection of US demands for a de-escalation in the region.
At the same time, the world’s biggest supplier of gas has opted to keep a lid on gas exports to Europe where market prices have surpassed the all-time highs set in September to reach a new record last month.
Analysts estimate that Europe’s gas prices could fall by half if Russia agreed to increase its exports by 20%. Gazprom has claimed it is meeting all its contracted exports to European companies.
“The current storage deficit in the European Union is largely due to Gazprom,” Birol said. “The low levels of storage in company’s EU-based facilities account for half of the EU storage deficit although Gazprom facilities only constitute 10% of the EU’s total storage capacity.”
Chris O’Shea, the head of the UK’s largest home energy supplier, British Gas, warned that prices were likely to remain high for at least another two years, based on the current outlook for global energy markets and the UK’s ongoing reliance on fossil fuels.
Stand by stand by BOOM Farouk has handed you your arse YET again! Give it up my old troll you are even making the FSB special needs look efficient.
The best thing effective thing to do to tackle the cost of living crisis is enabled Ukraine to defeat Russia as quickly as possible. I doubt Putin can survive a humiliating defeat.
The best thing to do would be to hit Russia in the pocket, reducing their revenues would really hurt. Strangely the best way to do this is counter intuitive, the EU opens NS2, reinstates old gas contracts and allows all oil and coal in as normal. This would crash the prices for all energy, fertilisers etc eliminating our cost of living crisis at a stroke and hitting Russia’s income that they use to fund the war very hard.
I can’t imagine even a Putin propagandist kept his face straight while posting that ridiculous tosh.
Buying gas from Russia is not going to hit Russia’s income. Not buying at all is the best way to reduce Russia’s income.
In theory Putin can sell it elsewhere, except there’s the issue of transportation. Using pipelines is easy, but the ones not going to Europe are at capacity already and they take a long time to build.
LNG is an option, if the supplier and receiver have the facilities to liquify and deliquify the gas. Not to mention the limited number of tankers, and their operators fear of being hit by sanctions.
If Germany had any moral backbone it’d trash both NS1 and NS2 as soon as possible.
You be careful talking like that (or have you had permission to try to go a little more covert and impartial) or you will find yourself a T72 track pad! But as you are now trying to be a little more impartial, any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukrine yet?
False flag, or maybes had a few too many russian standards typing it, be back to the usual supporting sentiment very soon.
Because there is widespread, cross party support for helping Ukraine. And I think deep down we know how important, existential even, it is. It also makes the the government look good – remember they are populists.
And the only functioning minister at the moment is the Defence Minister.
I have read the posts on the subject above and look at one stark question no one is thinking of. Will Putin get to the point of not wanting to lose this war he opts for TNW? Remember, in 2014, the Russian’s changed their
“The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, and also in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation involving the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is under threat.”
This ambiguity may well be by design given that other publications like Russia’s 2017 naval doctrine refer to the role of nuclear weapons as a tool to be used at all phases of conflict. This does not necessarily mean that nuclear strikes will occur at every stage of a conflict but rather that ambiguity regarding possible use can create the conditions for conventional escalation and that the calibrated use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons can end a losing conflict on acceptable terms. That said, we hope it is likely that Russia would only use nuclear weapons in extremis should, for example, its forces face a decisive defeat at the hands of NATO or its control over what it deems its own territory be jeopardized, Ukraine is, as far as Putin is concerned, Russian territory. Could this can include freshly seized territory that has been de jure incorporated into Russia. For example, we might consider the nuclear threats issued by Putin over the seizure of Crimea, which prompted concerns that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons to dissuade Western involvement.
Are there are no scenarios in which TNW could or would be used in a local conflict, as they are ‘for general warfighting as a last-ditch effort in cases where the military is losing a war and the state is under threat’ and the scenario that Russian forces are lose in Ukraine and that Ukraine can retake Crimea?
I cant see Moscow going down that path. Putin believed that the Ukraine would be done and dusted in days,-Huge mistake- allowing him to go down in Russian history, well he is, but not for the reason he signed up for. As this drags out, pressure will start to pile up and I wouldnt be suprised if he taken out , with the new government ending thr war, turning back on the gas taps and the EU returning to attacking the Uk as enemy nbr 1 (you know they want to)
I suspect our leading support of Ukraine in this conflict has bought us a lot of friendship in EU states that feel directly threatened by Russia. While the EC may hate us for proving life can be better outside the EU, these states should be able to throw spanners into the EC’s vindictive plans.
From an outsider’s perspective, all the at-risk, frontline NATO members earnestly desire to embrace Blighty as a best mate;.those lands comfortably behind the front exhibit indifference to contempt. Welcome to the world as seen from US perspective since 1949. 😁
Going by that logic anything that Putin seems as his, or rather part of Russia, that he can’t retain or conquer could justify his use of nukes. Do we hand over Ukraine, Moldova, The Baltics, Finland, all because they were at one time part of the Russian Empire or USSR?
Putin is a classic bully, big mouth but a coward in the face of danger. We saw that fear in how he isolated himself in a dacha outside Moscow for the entire duration of the pandemic.
The Baltic states are far smaller and easier to isolate, they would have been easier to conquer than Ukraine… EXCEPT for one thing, they’re NATO members. Putin fears going head to head with NATO because he’d lose in every single theatre of operations. So he avoided tangling with NATO by going after Ukraine.
I suspect NATO would feel compelled to react if a tactical nuclear weapon was used in a country bordering a member. While the radiation and fallout risks are much reduced in size, there’d still be a danger to neighbouring populations. NATO would probably deploy air-defences over Ukraine to prevent the Russians launching any further nuclear weapons. That would leave Putin the choice to go head to head with NATO, or back down.
Now supposedly Putin, before his days as president, did propose the “escalate to de-escalate” concept, to force an opponent that was winning in conventional warfare to back down by the first use of nuclear weapons. But that policy involved both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Putin may be bad, but he’s not mad. The publicising of this policy proves this is a bluff rather than a military strategy.
This is the delicate balance being navigated by Blinken in conjunction with the UK and NATO: weapons support to Ukraine which is timely, are Soviet in origin of if Western can be characterised as ‘defensive’ and are sufficient to wear down the Russian forces and the morale of Putin’s cadre to the point where they get rid of him and/or come to the negotiating table.
The recent offensive Ukrainian strikes into Crimea are a rubicon. The Russian response seems to have been incursions into US Alaskan air space where the USAF is a bit short of F22s interceptors, having sent quite a few of them to Europe. A Russian reminder that they retain the ability to strike the west coast of the US.
The usual crew helping Ukraine. What are France,Germany and Italy doing of late tho?
Italy is in political turmoil, Macaroon is trying to hang onto as much power as he can after effectively being voted out of most political decision making and Germany will be deciding how it can shaft every other EU nation to prevent itself falling into recession. That about sums up the EU meetings for the next 2 years.
It was interesting to listen to the our Defence Secretary Wallace during the conference mention that war stock reserves in general were running low across donor nations (primarily European ones of course). Hence more emphasis was being placed on 3rd party purchases (perhaps from Africa/south America) and increasing producing of munitions too to partially replace what was being sent. But it was very revealing that the tone is that it is unlikely, especially on munitions, that production can’t currently keep pace with the level of expenditure.
Request that someone w/ superior logical reasoning skills explain the rationale behind Russian behavior at the Zap. nuclear power station complex. The logic frankly escapes me . It is baffling to contemplate why a government would risk contamination, for an indeterminate period of time, of land that was the purpose of subject operation. Or how said government repeals the prevailing wind pattern to avoid contamination of a significant swath of the homeland. Is this not the archetypal scenario for usage of the term, ” hoist w/ one’s own petard?” 🤔
What a sham, if not also shameful show of support ! Earlier invasions and interventions even via proxies in Iraq and Syria were dealt with either British or funded mercenary boots on the ground bringing quick positive or negative outcomes even where the elites have vacated the scene and with lower indigenous defence production capacities. But in Ukraine which fares better on both these scores, the Western response has been hypocritical and rather muted to just loud bangs ; there are no pro-active COWs, no conventional counter attacks and not even passive boots on the ground on peace-building missions. What a shame !
What’s your point?
I wouldn’t call Iraq and Syria quick outccomes !
AIUI it is a basic of peace keeping or peace building missions that consent / ceasefire has to come from both sides first, which is not – and cannot be – put in place.
I’d wish they’d stop all this broadcasting of eveything we’re doing and giving the “heads up” to the Russian’s… unless it’s false information… Lol 😁
Id guess the information is handed out in a timed fashion, i.e well after it has already happened.
I agree. Politicians seem not to know what OPSEC is.
As I understand it, the largest pool of these in Europe is the 114 Germany has in storage – in addition to around 50 in active service.
It would be good to see some of those going.
There has been a claim that Ukraine may have killed Yevgeny Prigozhin in a Himars strike