Significant concerns have surfaced over the UK’s capability to deter and defend against aggression due to a diminished combat air fleet.
These concerns are highlighted in the House of Commons Defence Committee report titled ‘Aviation Procurement: Winging it?’, which critically assesses the nation’s current defensive posture amidst rising geopolitical challenges.
The report stated, “There was a consensus amongst our witnesses, including the MoD, that the ability of the UK’s combat air fleet to deter aggression and to gain air superiority in a warfighting context had taken on a new significance as the prospect of conflict with a peer or near-peer adversary had drawn closer.”
Alarmingly, the combat aircraft fleet now is only “around a third of the size it was at the end of the Cold War.” Dr. Sophy Antrobus highlighted, “there is no way of getting away from it: the number of fast jet combat aircraft and squadrons that the RAF has is a significant step back from where we were at the end of the Cold War.”
Below is a table reflecting reductions in combat air fleet sizes across selected European NATO members:
| Year/Country | 1973 | 1993 | 2013 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 500 | 450 | 230 | 169 |
| France | 500 | 630 | 290 | 231 |
| Germany | 460 | 450 | 209 | 214 |
| Italy | 330 | 320 | 220 | 199 |
Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance
The report points out that “mass alone does not win wars.” However, there’s a “fine balance to be struck between exquisite capability and aircraft numbers.” The consensus among experts, including David Deptula, is that a potential conflict would see attrition “on scales that we have not witnessed since World War Two.”
Justin Bronk added another dimension, emphasizing that “readiness for warfighting is not quite diametrically opposed, but close to opposed, to the readiness and degree to which you use the force for lots of small presence and signalling operations.” The gist being, the current RAF operations might be detracting from true war readiness.
In a telling observation, the report warns that the RAF now offers “a boutique high capability: it lacks numerical depth and has an inadequate attrition reserve.” In a possible major conflict, it asserts, “every airframe will count.”
Conclusively, the pressing concern remains: “The Defence Command Paper cuts will create a combat air capability gap which, on current plans, will persist well into the 2030s. This is unacceptable. The MoD and RAF must consider as a matter of urgency how they can increase combat air mass in the short term.”
Rich that politicians set the budget then complain when that does not create a large aircraft fleet while putting pensions and Successor capital costs into core budget.
Cuts in 91,95,97,2004,2010, and ongoing.
It’s you, HMG, Only you.
As always, a balance is needed between quality and quantity to get more mass, as the RAF will always go for capability.
Which we still don’t see.
It matters also the cost from Industry. Eurofighter in Colombia competition was considered the most expensive and most complex to maintain compared to Gripen, F-16V and Rafale – Rafale won – but government changed and contract was not signed so they continue with +40 year old Kfirs.
Wow some book definitely for the museum 🤗 🇬🇧
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Yet we never learn. Before WW1 we had poor Artillery, Aerial recconisance, engineer support.. By the end of WW1 we were world beaters. By the start of WW2 we were behind in all areas. By the end of WW2 we were world class and led in many areas. Guess where we are now.
Err I think you just made a case for the current strategy of why spend money on things you don’t need 😉
When I was a very young lad, in the RN CCF at school, the RN had 5 battleships, 20 carriers, 20 cruisers, 50 destroyers, 50 submarines, and 188 frigates.
From that you should be able to work out how old I am.
Ghee, if you posted that as a wish list we would call that a fantasy fleet!
That global military reach strategy of the post war decades bankrupted the country and destroyed British civilian industry by the 1970s. Not entirely convinced it was worth it for the picture book. Look at how Japan and Germany who invested in their civilian industry instead out shone us.
yep DM , 31 front line combat jet squadrons in 1990 – sad state of affairs. Slightly off topic, but the RN is still no more than 19 Frigates and Destroyer .13 years post the Cameron cuts and the dial has not moved. We’ll be lucky to keep pace with replacements of the Type 23’s.
“Rich that politicians set the budget then complain when that does not create a large aircraft fleet”
I thought exactly the same.
You can guarantee that the politicians today criticising the current state of affairs would have been up in arms ten years ago if the government had found requisite funding to bring aircraft numbers up to what they expect today.
During my service in the 80’s and 90’s the RAF operated about 35 combat squadrons. I think the current 8 combat squadrons (7x Ty, 1x F35) is far too low, and provides for no attrition in times of conflict. The current crop are extremely capable, but so are the enemies. The RAF should be operating at least 12 to 15 combat squadrons, dispersed across the country. The centralised Lossiemouth base is very nice, but you shouldn’t keep all your eggs in one basket.
Hi Paul,
Given that numbers can and do fluctuate, what in your opinion would be the ‘average’ size in aircraft numbers in a Sqn? I have always assumed that it was 12 aircraft, perhaps wrongly.
Also can’t but help wonder if we would be better served by having a standard fighter sqn of 16 aircraft. Not my domain mind, just a few thoughts from a RN type.
I would go for ten aircraft per squadron as it allow for better de centralization and also promotion opportunities. If it were down to me I would keep Tranche 1 and upgrade for air defence as best as possible; order another 30 aircraft including 12 electronic warfare types. This could be run with the German order. 12 squadrons of ten. F35’s to be used for the carriers. Four squadron of eight by 2025 and order another twelve. At least we could get the RN properly active. Then, presuming Labour doesn’t cancel it, wait for Tempest.
I think WW2-era fighter squadrons were around 16, giving 4x 4-ship flights. Later this generally became 12, but varied by aircraft type. Some harrier squadrons were only 8 aircraft. A lot of 80’s era air bases operated only 2 squadrons; I always thought this was a bit inefficient, but gives good asset dispersal. I think RN should use 16 per squadron. This gives 2x 16 per aircraft carrier; a good size air wing in my opinion. If the RN operated 5 squadrons this would give 2 air wings plus 1 training/reserve squadron.
In my day, jet squadrons typically had 16, as a general rule. About four would be unserviceable at any give time. So 12 operational.
Please bear in mind service was with the South African Air force. However, much of the doctrine was RAF based.
Interesting, mate. Makes sense.
👌
Spot on ,when some people post on this site about better capability so the numbers are no longer needed I don’t think there take a count of attrition and war losses 🙄 🇬🇧
Agreed.
The report does not mention weapons. I suspect out stockpiles of Air to air and even cannon amp is just as woeful.
I’d love to see more RAF front line fighter/bomber/standoff capability.
Shortage of munitions was said about army and it then turned out there was a small mountain of NLAWs and M270 which were actually what was required.
Bear in mind UK had more M270 than Ukraine has and look at how effective they are?
At one stage we did have around 1k Storm Shadow too.
Yes, I would like bigger stock piles too…..
The thing I like to see most of all is more pilots per front line airframe.
One of the biggest issue curtailing larger stockpiles, is this idiotic rule that items in stores are taxed. So the MoD have to pay back money to the Treasury. I for the life of me cannot see why and I’m trying to remember which cockwomble of an MP brought it in?
There is some truth in that.
Really it also to encourage not siting on masses of ancient kit – Russian style – so there is a value judgment.
Sure that a saying exists… ‘Quantity has a quality of it’s own’, now I know a balance is needed between budget & most modern equipment possible, but do we always need such advanced weapon system for some of the conflicts we might face? Would a more modest equipment selection be justified in greater numbers? (Although we would need the manning to look after it all!).
We now have one of the smallest air forces in the world ( taken against the top ten), possibly the top twenty. Most are no less capable than the RAF. In terms of the F35 almost every leading buyer has more on order than we do. As things stand at the moment, and yes I will say it again, it has taken us ten years since inception and six since operational capability was announced to get one squadron operational. News this week has pushed back the second squadron from this year until 2025. There is no order for tranche 2 forthcoming, and I very much doubt that there will be.
By the end of 2023 the RAAF will have its full complement of 72 F35As delivered. Together with 24 Super Hornets and 12 Growlers (all with AESA radars) for a total frontline combat fast jet fleet of 108.
RAAF squadrons are typically 24 aircraft (similar to USAF) so using a UK squadron model that would be the equivalent of 9 fast jet squadrons.
Weapons load outs either in service or on order will include long range stand off air to ground (JDAM glide bombs, SDBs, JSOW, JDAM-ER) maritime strike (Harpoon, NSM and LRASM) and anti radiation missiles (HARM, AAGRM-ER).
Supported by 6 E7 Wedgtails, 7 boom equipped MRTT tankers, 14 P8 Poseidon and soon 4 MC 55 Peregrine SIGNIT aircraft and Triton HALE and Ghost Bat loyal wingman UAVs.
It is an airforce that can and does deploy globally from Japan, to the Middle East to Alaska and Nevada and is trained to the highest standards at Red Flag.
It’s a disturbing comparison that as of today the RAAF already has more 5th generation stealth fighters (60) in service than the RAF.
Omitted JASSM and JASSM-ER cruise missiles (920 km rang) from RAAF weapons list.
I Don’t know about timescales O.Z. but I do the following Main F35 orders to date. Australia 72, Canada 88. Finland 64, Israel 75, Italy 75, Japan 147, Norway 52, Poland 64, South Korea 60. We are being by passed by every major European and Asian country and heading, in F35 terms at least, which everybody here seems to think is the way forward, for the bottom.
I remain a fan of AUS defence policy, particularly the RAAF. Living in NZ, I stare across the ditch with much envy.
I wonder if the RAAF have factored in the required modifications, downtime and cost of upgrading from TR2 to TR3?
The Defence Strategic Review (DSR) released earlier this year (the first major review by the Labor government) specifically recommends both the TR3 upgrade and any future block 4 upgrades be implemented and are noted as critical for maintaining the F35 platform’s lethality although no specific funding amounts are given – most probably because nobody (including LM or USAF) knows what the cost might ultimately be.
Australia has a general policy of funding spiral upgrades to keep RAAF platforms in lock step with US equipment as already demonstrated by its public commitment to upgrading the Super Hornets and Growlers to match USN specs. Same is likely to go for the P8.
In fact Australia is committing funds towards the development of the next generation radar jamming pods for the Growlers. it’s a smart move because the investment gives the RAAF a seat at the table at the development and testing phases to ensure any unique to Australia requirements are funded.
Australia is already leading the development of upgrades to the E7 Wedgtails which the UK acquisition will probably benefit from.
This approach also applies to an extent with land platforms with the Abrams M1A1s being upgraded (swapped out for new hulls) to M1A2 Sep 3 standard (while increasing numbers from 59 to 75 MBTs and adding a further 29 Assault Breacher 17 Joint Assault Bridgers – all based on Abrams chassis).
Tranche 1 Typhoon is still with us. When it goes about 107 Typhoon and first 48 F35. I use 150 as a rough number going forward.
Too few by far. I’d be happy with 200.
Good morning Daniele.
Unfortunately all these Defence Committee warnings – and there have been many over the years – just fall on deaf ears and are simply ignored by whichever government is in control.
With regret, it’s going to take an actual shooting war to ram home the true state of our Armed Forces. We have cut and cut and cut and all the holes have been papered over. Something has to give.
There will be no new money for defence either now or in the future as the government of the day will continue to kick the can down the road paying lip service along the way.
Without wishing to be a ‘Debbie Downer’, in my opinion war is coming with China. Estimates are that China will move on Taiwan around 2027 and have no doubts we will be dragged in – and with what?
Sobering.
About a year ago I undertook a detailed study of the status of T4 Typhoon availability, using only open source information. The conclusion was that only 60-65 airframes would be immediately available on any one day. I wrote it up and posted it here. Available airframes are one thing, trained pilots are another.
Currently the situation has taken a decided turn for the worse. The RAF made a supreme effort for the fly-bys around the Coronation and about 50 got up from Connigsby and elsewhere, which seemed to impress everyone.
Precise availability numbers are classified, but the lack of trained pilots is now telling and I doubt if the RAF could send up 45 T4 Typhoons – none of them with the latest AESA radar, which will not be recieved untill 2027 at the earliest.
I think its reasonable to ask where the £24 billion of extra defence money has been spent – certainly not on up-to-date kit for the armed forces. The whole situation is a damned poor show.
We know where mate.
Nukes. So read Politics.
AUKUS. So read Politics and industry, big R&D money that has no certainty that it ever appears in military service, yet the money is gone.
Tempest. As above.
Other billions will have goneon your fav subject, cost over runs and on restocking munitions that are for Ukraine.
With the MoD budget, the priorities are politics and industry. We know this, even though many either won’t admit it or try to ignore it. Actual kit and numbers for the forces are a byproduct.
Look at Sunaks grandstanding with AUKUS while our small SSN fleet sits in port for lack of Dock capacity they’ve nor spent money on.
Not sure where you think stuff comes from if you think it’s a waste to invest money in the industry, you mean don’t invest and instead buy cheaper off the shelf foreign R&D and built equipment? The elephant in the room here is taxes and social security, that’s your politics for you, now jump into that pit of snakes!
F35 shared with the carriers so in reality is just the 107. What a woeful place to be, just like the army trying to muster together a fighting division can the RAF deploy a fully fledged squadron?
Think we have around 137 typhoons including the tranche 1 so guessing 32 F35B has been delivered so far, could be wrong but I think this is the split. And they are planning on dropping the 30 tranche 1 typhoons soon which is silly.
Been saying this about all 3 services for year’s ,one does feel like giving up .Don’t think defence spending will ever be a priory on PM list. 😕
Likewise Andrew. We have shared many a post. It’s difficult enough convincing fellow readers so what should we expect from the politicians.🙄
Wonder what the labour policy decisions will be?
Cut or at best freeze defence spending, as always, and pour the money into the NHS, preferably without reforming it in any way.
I think I heard Wes Streeting say he was minded to make GPs salaried employees. That would set the cat among the medical pidgeons.
I was thinking more about the RAF. An order for Tranche 4 Typhoons to replace the T1s perhaps. Levelling up jobs in the Lancashire ‘red wall’ belt?
On an average of £120,000 a year. they shouldn’t need to do anything with GP’s salary. On you other point re Typhoons I’ve just replied near the start if you would like to take a look.
Ok, got it. 👌
Re the NHS thing, Streeting didn’t elaborate. You could speculate … more health centres and move away from small GP practices. Reduced admin, better leverage of GP skills, more allied medical and social services skills on same site, quicker referrals maybe?
Would love to see it but we’ve been here before. I actually have access to a very good health centre where amongst other things the GP’s actually see their patients. My son’s family and my daughters family centre (they live in the same city area) is like something out of the third world and I may be being unkind to the third world.
In the late 1940’s, Enest Bevan, who created the NHS, said afterwards that his biggest regret was not getting the GP Doctors to become salaried NHS doctors – and nothing has changed since then. Indeed Blair/Brown caved in to their demands for more pay/benefits which many others in the NHS were amazed at – so good luck to Wes Streeting easy to promise anything in opposition. As long as voters always look to the Government to step in to throw money at every problem which emerges, we will never see substantial increases in defence spending. Of course its not helped by senior military leaders playing up individual platform capability over numbers.Ignoring the reality of war when platforms and crews will be lost or damaged .
Like the school teachers the GPs are having to deal with the breakdown of traditional family structure. They are overwhelmed as more and more ‘conditions’ which are really to do with self management and relationships are medicalised. As the saying goes ‘it’s the economy stupid’. Turn every problem into a medical condition and you create lots of jobs for pundits, therapists, medics, academics, charities and pharma companies. Spoke to a woman yesterday who was phoning from her health centre to see her GP to ask for a referral to the local food bank!
Perhaps she was offered drugs for anxiety and blood pressure or may the diabetes caused by decades of stress. Who knows? The NHS is the biggest Welsh Chapel in the world. Not sure that culture is everyone’s cup of tea.
Agree about numbers vs capability in defence. I hope we are learning some lessons watching how things go in Ukraine.
Russia must ultimately be brought into Europe. Interesting to hear Pope Francis comments encouraging Russian youth to look to Tsars like Peter and Catherine who looked to the West. China is too big to confront. It must be undermined from within – by the Christians. The key diplomatic player is the Vatican who I see have just sent a senior peace envoy to meet with the Chinese number 2 to talk about China acting as peace broker between Russia and Ukraine. Clever move.
Surely the friendly elephant in the room is NATO. It would seem unlikely the UK would find itself in a peer to peer war on its own.
Seems to make economic sense to concentrate money on investing in the high tech research and development while supporting that with an affordable purchasing and maintenance strategy, the whole thing would collapse of the UK went bancrupt and the slightest well earned long term leads on areas like aviation and automation would be lost forever. Be careful what you wish for.
The current ship building programme, a mix of work horse, high tech and flexible solutions, home built with attractive export licenses seems to be like a good way to go.
It a while since I posted anything, but I’ve got to agree we are now the poor relative as far as everything goes, tiny military, tiny finances, and a tiny PM have I missed anything? As always we wait til it happens, our Politicians never heed the signs.
Much like the navy, we have too few ships, the cuts to defence assets have gone too far. Now us the time to do something about it.
No surprise to anyone interested in defence. Linking this to the earlier article on flying hours for Poseidon and F35, it seems that the existing F 35s are barely being used. Why? To save money? because these early production versions have such limited capability?.or ?
Whilst many other countries which didn’t contribute $2.5b to development costs have ordered more units than UK, all of them will be similarly hampered by the slow integration of weapons and necessary software fixes, entirely controlled by LM.
There is an obvious solution for the UK- buy more Typhoons, retain the T1s, upgraded to at least give credible air to air capability. A fleet of around 200 plus whatever F35s are eventually acquired would be a significant improvement and certainly not a fantasy fleet.
The army has long overdue committed funding to modernise key systems,
The RN has orders and funding to replace its entire frigate fleet and FSSS.
The only major programme for the RAF is Tempest, still a research project that won’t deliver an aircraft until after 2035.
We had the report saying we going to need a bigger Navy. Now the report saying we need a bigger Air Force. I can’t think what the next report will be, but I’ll bet it’ll feature the number 72,500 and “no longer top tier”.
I hope the pattern will come clear soon. Even to the Prime Minister.
If it’s depth we need then the only way that can be provided surely is by buying cheaper aircraft to complement the current fleet.
If the US operate the F15 as their dominant fighter and the F16 as a light fighter then for us it would be the Typhoon as our primary fighter and we should purchase the Gripen as a modern light fighter