A recent report from the House of Commons Defence Committee, titled “Aviation Procurement: Winging it?”, raises significant concerns over the UK’s air defence capabilities, highlighting the potential vulnerability of the nation’s air fleet amidst rising European tensions.

“With the prospect of UK involvement in a major war on the European continent closer than it has been for decades, there are serious questions as to whether the UK’s reduced combat air fleet still provides a sufficient deterrent,” states the report in its 21st paragraph.

The document also cites concerns over the Royal Air Force (RAF) having an aircraft fleet that offers “boutique high capability” but “lacks numerical depth.” As per the report, “in a peer-on-peer conflict such as a shooting war with Russia, every airframe will count.”

Moreover, while the RAF’s consideration to increase its F-35 fleet beyond the 74 aircraft already planned has support, the report highlights concerns regarding the high sustainment costs and slow growth rate of the fleet. The MoD is urged to be transparent about the eventual size and deployment of the F-35 fleet.

Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) are identified as a potential cost-effective means to enhance combat mass. However, the Defence Committee recommends that the role of UAS, especially in the context of the UK’s aircraft carriers, should be rapidly defined and pursued.

The report also draws attention to the serious threats presented by the retirement and delays of certain Airborne Early Warning & Control programmes. The decision to cut the UK’s Wedgetail E-7 fleet from five to three aircraft is described as especially concerning, with the cut reducing capability by 40% but only saving 12% in acquisition costs.

There’s also a call to action regarding the RAF’s training processes, highlighting the need for more effective flying training mechanisms, streamlining contracts, and ensuring more effective resource allocation for defence procurement.

The committee concludes by stressing that the 2021 Defence Command Paper has weakened the UK’s air power capabilities at a critical time, stating, “The MoD’s acceptance of capability gaps and its cuts to combat mass across the fleet have left the UK dangerously exposed at a time of increasing threat to national security and risk diminishing our role within NATO.”

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George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

48 COMMENTS

  1. Yes MOD procurement policy has been pants . Reducing Wedgetail from 5 to 3 is negligent . With the 6th largest defence budget this is clearly not a cost effective decision.

    • Thing is that every planes cost a lot of money and requires 3 years to build. AirPower of WW2 is out of the equation because of this inflation of costs. A fighter bomber used to cost 40k$ in WW2. Let say that the price in today’s money would be 400k$. The price of one Typhoon is 100M$. So who would win in a fight where you throw in 300 mustangs against one Typhoon. Oh, yes, the Typhoon may win 2 or 3 times given it’s performance, but given a capable commander, I would bet on the mustang, killing the jet in it’s nest. Especially since with current technologies we could significantly reduce the gap. This is what is happening with drones. We are in an Airpower dead end. This is about to collapse. I am afraid that the path followed by the main airframe of SCAF and GCAP is the continuation of the dead end, while the data sharing, the loyal wingman and all other drones are the real thing to regain mass, face attrition and so on. With a plane worth 80 M€, France is able to field 150 of them. With a plane worth 10 M€, we could expect 1200, which would be more serious. A least a mix would be great. Rafale F5 is this way, GCAP and Scaf are more ambitious, let see who first will regain air power. I think USA is serious, UK aim at 2050, France aim a massive airpower in 2035. This way, the deterence toward Russia will be ensured by France in the near 15 years, while UK will provide great power a bit later.

    • Razor wrote:

      “”Totally nutty comment””

      It would really help your cause if you explained exactly why you feel what I wrote was nutty. Instead, you threw a barb simply because you are unable to correct with actual facts anything I stated. No seriously the object of debate, is to get the other fellow onto your way of thinking, you are not going to achieve that in any mass debate by resorting to grunts, moans and hi pitched exclamations.

      • Western society is facing a steep decline. The decline is rooted in many things but it certainly encompasses a decline in confidence and in respect for previous generations who actually built the society

        The decline is more than evident across many strata of society. It is certainly evident in a seeming inability to get things done. It is certainly evident in hiring policies based on criteria other than merit and on an ability to do the job.

        It is impossible to divorce defence from this broader societal reality. Many continue to believe that one can build a strong defence on an increasingly broken society, but you can’t.

  2. Well as a Scot I demand reparations from England for the treatment of my ancestors. Also Italy owes a chunk for the suffering under the Romans. Those Nordic countries owe a few Bob from the Viking times.
    This is just to show how ridiculous it can get. It’s time to move on to the future. Nobody can be held accountable for dead people’s actions.
    Fair enough debt relief for struggling countries but that’s not just a U.K. decision.
    Big issues face the world and the forces are meant to be the big stick that maintain things how people want them if the poop hits the fan.
    I think the forces are at a minimum level but the direction of travel is always downwards.

  3. I agree with you about the promotion of racist divisions by our schools and media, but think this is our establishment copying the US example of keeping the poor down by keeping them at one another throats over race. Both major parties are involved in that. The reparations nonsense over slavery and climate change is just part of that.

    Re Brexit The Tories took us out without a valid vote but to prevent civil war I think there is little chance of our rejoining without one.The important thing is to go after the murderous fascists thugs of UKIP, Brexit, Reform and their Tory and Labour collaborators. Those bastards have to pay for what they have done to the country.

    Re total defense spending we are the 7th biggest economy in the world. Last year we had the third biggest defence budget in the world; This year the 4th. Are we getting bad value for money and if so why?

    Are the lead ships of new high tech designs in the US really any faster on average?

    • Chris wrote:

      Brexit The Tories took us out without a valid vote but to prevent civil war I think there is little chance of our rejoining without one.

      It was a legitimate vote , with the largest number of people who voted and unlike the EU who forced countries such as Denmark, Ireland, France, and Holland to retake votes which went against it, or even ignore them altogether. The British stuck by the voters , if you feel that the vote was stolen, then do be so kind as to report it to the MET police 
      Chris wrote:

      The important thing is to go after the murderous fascists thugs of UKIP, Brexit, Reform and their Tory and Labour collaborators. Those bastards have to pay for what they have done to the country.

      So let me get this right , a nice person like you who believes in equality for all, feels that those who didn’t vote the way you did should be punished. It never fails to amaze me at how people like you play the fascist , far right card . You know just like they did when that Polish geezer was killed in Essex just after the Brexit vote, oh how they all claimed that intolerance had risen, how the far right was the reason behind all the hate foreigners were now experiencing, in fact after that death Poland sent Polish police officers to patrol the streets of Essex in which to protect Poles from nasty far right British people. Then it transpired that the Polish guy was drunk and set upon a load of coloured lads minding their own bees wax with acute racism and when one hit him back, he fell , banged his head and died and guess what very few of the “its all the fault of the far crowd” admitted they got it all wrong. Funny that. It’s the same with how people like you are ok with people like farage getting attacked on the street, in Pubs. I may not like what he has to say, but you know what, he has as much right to say what he wants, just like EU politicians have about the Uk, you know those who demand that the UK must be punished , (such as the Irish leader wanting to ban all Uk flights from their air space) why the EU even played silly buggers with the British government during the covid crisis over a trade deal with a private company yes a private country .  To that end have you seen any British Political elite demand that any remainer or even a EU political elite be physically attacked simply because we don’t like what they have so say? No and you know what, if somebody had, that person would be gone. Be careful what you ask for, because once you start eroding peoples rights, it’s the first step down a long sticky slope. (looks at Irish and Scottish hate bills)

  4. Who would give misleaded ideas to friends? Their are injustice, but what can you expect when a country choose to play the weak strategy? This is beyond common sense. A small industrial factory will not be in a good situation negociating with Cosco. Transpose it and all the comment is… lame. No diplomacy is strong when it is representing small interests. This is something our countries, England and France faced in Suez in 1956, hence the French deterence program and the EU. Faced with the exact same problem, UK played low key on nukes and places itself in a very weak position within it’s peer in EU. UK played as if it could play a particular role toward USA, while war in Irak and Afghanistan made it clear that from then on UK would not really be treated as a partner by USA, even in a junior role. So from then on, despaire and resentment and a fertile ground for those who want to play on it. This make no sense to me, especially given how bright people are in foreign office in UK.
    For the military culture, home pride, it is another story. Every one in West was so sure we would win in every war, that people forgot that great people have first to have the desire to be great. Same for countries. Every other path is doom.

    • You do realise, that what you have written substantiates everything I wrote about the nefarious nature of our European neighbours. For example whilst they all to a letter (and their sycophants in the UK) scream that the Uk is untrustworthy country, yet and a big yet the Uk always abides by the rule book, can we say for any central European country. Just look at how the UK implemented EU laws, such as animal husbandry , such as Pigs welfare, banning caged chickens and yet whilst the Uk adopted those new laws which increased costs for British industry , other didn’t so the battery chicken law was enacted in Jan 2012, the Uk implemented it on 01/01/12, France has still to enact that law, want to guess which country is now the EUs biggest producer of battery farmed eggs, Poland is in a similar position with Pork both of whom have undercut the British egg, chicken and Pork industries. The other day Germany refused to send a Albanian drug dealer to the Uk as his defence stated British prisons would be against his Human rights.
      The above attitude is even worse amongst the political elites at the EU, who lets be honest sneered at Cameron when he went to them cap in hand was the reason the British voted to leave. As I have stated before I am pro EU. (Having spent a lot of my adult life on the mainland) and I honestly thought that the Uk leaving the union would result in the EU changing its way for the better. How wrong I was, despite all the cat calls of far right, brexitshiters, Little Englanders  etc the vast majority (by a long way) of hatred has come from the EU and its sycophants directed at the British. I see similar undertones of that mindset in your post. No attempt to understand why, but simply berate the otherside as its so easy to throw mud.

      • Exactly, we agree 100%. This is why Brexit was pointless. It placed UK in a bad seat, a weak position, for nothing. EU is more important for UK than the countrary. You can do nothing to change this fact, and USA does’nt care why you are weak. They walk on your concerns, because no time to ear them. EU is more important for USA than UK. It is facts. The position of UK is currently weak. UK has friends, in France and elsewhere. I like UK. I hope we will be able to work together soon.

  5. I would suspect it would be more to do with a vast part of the UK population wanting to have a Champaign lifestyle on a lemonade budget. And also objecting to paying tax

      • K wrote:
        “”Gosh, your reply sounds like someone thoroughly brainwashed.”

        Is that so? Do be so kind and correct anything i stated above with factual evidence. I’m big enough to admit when I am wrong and yet instead of pointing out exactly where, you instead resorted to an ad hominem attack.
        https://i.postimg.cc/Z575fwD3/Graham-s-Hierarchy-of-Disagreement-svg.png
        So do be a dear and point me in the right direction, or should i presume that due to your inability to debate you are somewhat Myopic. Which would mean you have No Idea. I know its terrible isn’t it. But its late, and ive just spent an hour on the spin bike, and my pit is calling me.

        • Hi Farouk – I think your reply was meant to be directed to “Marked”(and not to me). I’m pretty much in agreement with your commentary. My side swipe was aimed at Marked and not to you. Please refer to my first reply to your post:”excellent piece Farouk, well written”

          I do follow and like your posts which are really balanced and intelligent. Do cut ‘n paste your above and send on to Marked!😉

      • I was at school in the late 80s early 90s and nothing of what this brainwashed tool has fabricated was pushed at us. And that’s from a school in a historically left town.

        People do push the agenda he claims but they are nothing to do with the left, or the right, they have their own agenda that’s on a completely different political spectrum.

        He’s just a brainwashed sheep reciting whatever he is fed by right wing leaning politicians and media without having the ability to engage a single braincell to consider if its true. The golden rule is treat politicians and the media the same, assume whatever they say is bollox, they will twist anything to attack political opponents.

        • Appreciate yore view , but will agree to disagree . Farouk is (in my opinion) correct regarding current global political narrative. I do however agree with your view on the media and politicians, all are self serving.

          • Howsit Klonkie. I posted something on an 8th September article UKDJ entitled “Martin Docherty-Hughes appointed SNP…” I needed you to confirm that our politicians are much worse than theirs!! 🙂
            ps What about the Jutes not to mention the Visigoths!! :):)

          • Classic Geoff! We are 5 weeks out from the NZ general election and the tide has turned. All polling trends showing a big predicted win for the centre right coalition. (55 to 60% of the vote). At last, the end of the tyranny of the Jacinda Ardern legacy and her Orwellian nightmare !

  6. Not enough money,not enough personnel,not enough equipment,no strategic plan equals shambles.UK airpower now based on F35 and Typhoon until Tempest arrives is locked in the cost death spiral.Small numbers of fabulous air systems(not planes anymore) with unit costs rising well beyond £100m per aircraft.Math has a valid point with his Mustang/Typhoon comparison.Quantity over quality,dozens of Shermans against handfuls of Tigers….

    • Thanks, this view is from USA. Damn theses guy’s have good thinkers. But let’s see what is on GCAP shopping list… 6th Gen is about numbers and I would never underestimate RAF thinking process or decision making process. These guy’s are 2nd to none.

  7. In the past 13 years the national debt has surged from £1.2 Trillion in 2010 to £2.4 Trillion in 2023. Conservative policies of tax, borrow and spend have resulted in the Treasury having to provide about £85 billion each year in interest payments, with interest rates at 5.25%

    Sunak, who printed more money than any Chancellor in history, now has a problem. Desperate to give the party a straw to clutch at, as the Labour party has a sustained 20 point lead in the polls, he wants a 2% cut in income tax as a sweetener before he is forced to go to the country in January 2024

    Sunak’s policy of kowtowing to the fossil fuel lobby forced inflation up to a high of 14% and currently still 8%. He gave the oiil majors a £12 billion direct subsidy last winter, to forstall bad headlines about the thousands of pensioners who froze to death because they could not afford to eat or heat their homes.

    Sunak must have a reason to put someone as incompetent as Grant Schraps in charge of defence. Schraps will do what Sunak tells him. Watch out for a big chunk of the £24 billion in extra money that Wallace obtained for defence being clawed back to pay for Sunak’s income tax sweetener.

    • After Ben Wallace, It would seem R.Sunak MP and First Lord of the Treasury would seem to want to be Secretary of State for Defence Of the Realm ~ following in the footprints of one Margaret H. Thatcher MP who knew little about Thatching Buildings but, Maggie knew Precisely How to Stitch Up On-the-Hoof, such as Cabinet Ministers, as She Handbagged the Unwary, Allegedly.

      And, Apparently, I would seem to have the Recollection that British Steel Ravenscraig was kept Operating in Motherwell to forge the High Quality Steel for the Present Time Continuous Deterrence At Sea RN Deeps during difficult political times in Scotland at the start point of Thatcherism versus the Trades Union Movements in Britain, among other issues at that time, It would seem

  8. We never learn. The UK “Saved money” in the 1920/30’s only to bankrupt the country fighting WW2.

    Fighting a war is always more expensive than maintaining credible defences.

    • Partially true. The war was won. The end of the empire is due to the rise of more cohesive one, in wich dreams were larger. Demographics and prestige… let one fall and empire is gone.

  9. There is absolutely no societal ill that you won’t blame on minorities. Everything wrong is because of the “immigrants” or the “gays” or the “blacks” or the “women”. Completely ignoring easily verifiable facts about decisions that were made that has the military and larger society in the position it is. Complete sheep repeating vacuous phrases you heard in the right wing swamp land. 

    • Netking wrote:
      “”There is absolutely no societal ill that you won’t blame on minorities.””

      It never fails to amaze me how people like you have to invent things in which to attack those you are unable to prove wrong by citing facts and figures. if you had bothered to read what I wrote, you would find I pointed out a racist drunk white Polish man died when he started a fight with a bunch of non whites. But hey don’t let the facts get in your way. A stance which is the Polar opposite of your claim I am a far right bigot.

      Nowhere do i berate immigrants, Gays, blacks or women. no go on, be my guest and cut and paste anything I have , oh that’s right you cant . so you throw mud simply because that’s all that people like you can do.

      Oh and by the way, might want to look up my name as its not English, I am not white and all my siblings are….Islamic.

  10. Good Evening!
    How many times have we discussed these matters? Air combat strength, increase in Defence spending, troop strength, lack of armoured strength, naval strength, fitted for but never applied?

    What do Labour intend to do that the Conservative Party in the tenure did not? Why is it always the same ping pong? All parties should ensure a consistent agreed strong Defence policy! Both for industry and the security of the nation! As it is now we are pathetically weak! There are no Cold War dividends anymore so let’s face it pay up support a strong Defence or leave and withdraw from the world stage!

    Nick Hamburg

    • Options for Change in summer 1990 reset our forces for the post Cold War world. The ‘peace dividend’ was taken over 30 years ago.
      However since then there have been numerous cuts unrelated to Cold War dividends – they were just cost cutting measures to enable more money to go to social voter-friendly programmes.

  11. Ah love how the left of the political centre work, throw abuse at anybody who doesn’t dance to the tune they blow on their wohmans skin flute. Then when that person turns out not to be a far right racist as they claim , but an Asian bloke with a Egyptian first name.which he supports by posting a photo, of his hand (Colour) wearing his watch (Date time) resting on a letter from Army records from the other week which has his name on it, they flag that post in which to get it removed because they don’t like been exposed for the oxygen thieves they are.

    • Who complained about my post and got it and the replies deleted? I am to the right of approx 60+ per cent to the population, only about 32 per cent to the right of me. I think it was one of the extreme right posters whose murderous criminal antics I mentioned who complained.

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