UK Defence Intelligence has disseminated an updated chart of the conflict in Ukraine as of the 8th of December, delineating the current conditions at the front in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine.
As per the reports, it has been ascertained that Russian forces have been engaging in aggressive manoeuvres along the line stretching from Kupyansk to Svatove and Kreminna, which spans from the Luhansk region into the Kharkiv region.
Additionally, the document illustrates skirmishes within the Donetsk region, specifically around Bakhmut, in proximity to Avdiivka, to the west and southwest of Donetsk City, and at the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
Concurrently, in the western part of the Zaporizhia region, Russian advances have been substantiated, including areas close to Avdiivka.
Seems the Ukrainians are being worn down through attrition and without the required western military support arriving in time there is a real risk of a tactical defeat for Ukraine and the potential of Ukraine losing the war. In those circumstances Poland is right, we will have a maximum of 3 years before the Russian military think they will risk a conflict elsewhere and either attack through the Balkans using their minions in Serbia as a pretext to attack or the Baltic states trumping up claims of naturalised Russian ethnic peoples being persecuted in NATO countries.
Meanwhile in the UK the government are preparing for the coming war how exactly?……. answers on a postcard.
Russia has switched fully 1/3rd of its industrial capacity over to war production in 2 years. The west has done little to ramp up production. Russia is moving closer to its intention of producing 2 million heavy artillery shells per year with the likely aim of doubling up and aiming for 4 million per month within the 2025-2026 time-frame. Whilst MBT production is now at 200 T90 series per annum and climbing. The west has taken its eye of the ball, when considering Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as a combined axis they easily out manufacture the western powers and NATO allied countries in ammunition, tank and shipping production (China) and there seems to be a generalised malaise over the Western nations due to corruption and politicians being more interested in securing non executive directorships and advisory roles after their political tenure then serving the general public and protecting the national interest. Politicians are forgetting the first priority of any government- the protection of the UK and its national interests.
Sorry meant Russia was aiming for a 4 million per annum shell production target within the 2025-2026 timeframe not 4 million per month.
I do wonder about the Republicans stalling on the aid package. If that continues I think Ukraine will be forced to the negotiation table at Russias terms. Where then? Moldova whilst they have the momentum then a few years to regroup and re equip whilst at the same time bringing Hungry back into the Soviet domain.
Biden is the one stalling on the aid package. All he has to do to get it passed is to take note of the demands of the House and Senate Republicans on securing the US’s borders and compromise with them; however, he (or whoever calls the shots in the White House) refuses to do so. Democrats believe that the flood of illegal immigrants can be convinced to vote Democratic and that’s behind the refusal to secure the borders. Already Democrats are trying to register and give the vote to illegal immigrants. The country agrees with the Republicans – securing the border is more important than aid to Ukraine. You may not like it bit that’s the reality. But put the blame where it belongs.
Election fraud is the name of the game here too.
The blame is on the far too toxic political debate there. And that’s mostly on Trump. There belongs the blame
It’s Trump’s fault that Biden invited illegal immigrants to swarm the southwestern US border, removes border agents from patrolling the border to make sandwiches for the illegal immigrants, then has his underlings lie to congress?
Joe Biden could have provided Ukraine with weapons that were more lethal when they actually needed them instead of waiting months or years to provide HIMARS, cluster munitions, and attack aircraft. And, when he abandoned Americans and allies behind enemy lines, he showed Putin, Xi, and Iran that he is a coward. Iranian proxies attack US forces on a daily basis and Biden responds with pinpricks. Hamas holds American hostages while our ally, Qatar houses the leader of Hamas.
Bidens mistake in Afghanistan was to leave the sudden pull out policy that Trump came up with in place. Trump was the author of it, it’s well documeted & reported. Trump wanted UKR to negotiate away its territory for “peace” & is far more isolationalist, Putin friendly & woludn’t have sent half as much aid to UKR as Biden has. It’s republicans mainly who are holding up further US support for UKR. Perverse indeed for a party that once was hardest on standing up to the USSR.
Biden reversed every single position Trump had taken, except the Afghanistan plan. The Taliban breached any agreement numerous times, prior to the withdrawal. Biden had every opportunity to alter the plan and every one of his military advisers had advised him to do so. Say what you will about Trump, but, only Joe Biden was commander in chief, during that catastrophic withdrawal.
Err no, illegal immigrants can’t vote, and no the Democrats are not trying to register illegals immigrants, because it’s illegal. You know, like storming the Capitol building to overturn a legal election is illegal. If you’ve got some verifiable evidence to substantiate your claim, I’m sure we’d all like to see it? Take note of the demands of the Republicans, well when the GOP rediscover the art of negotiation rather than political grandstanding we might make some progress. We will have to see how closet creeper Johnson lasts as speaker, bit of a revolving door for republicans these days.
Well said. And I don’t bother answer those unsubstantiated claimed above. They would be better suited for an American forum, trying to fool people that will actually vote
Here you are then.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/fine-print-democrats-plan-turn-migrants-into-voters-right-now
Yep, pretty much knew if someone responded they would quote from that towering edifice of journalistic integrity – Fox. Just another inflammatory Nothing Burger opinion piece about a few local elections in very Blue districts. Nothing to do with Federal elections which is what I was referring to. Even if any of this came true, the Fox assumption is it will make Blue districts a bit Bluer – and cost Blue districts more money. Wow. You didn’t read it, did you.
But hey, at least you wont find articles in Fox about Republicans purging the voter rolls in Democratic districts, but you should.
It’s where it begins Johnno. Biden is starting the process by authorising all incomers to have the right to work after being in the country for only 30 days.Mayor Adams is piggy backing on that, proposing that all people in work should also have the right to vote (in New York local elections) regardless of their legal status. If it succeeds, it will spread outwards and upwards to State level and finally to National level. That is the plan. Excellent reporting by Fox, as usual.
Certainly dangerous times Mr Bell…
I wouldn’t necessarily agree with post Ukraine Russian intentions, but what we do know is that we have been taking our eye off the ball for 9 years.
Russia pushed a chess piece forward and took Crimea, the West did effectively nothing.
Green light go for Putin. It’s the Russian mentality unfortunately.
The problem as I see it now, is Russia has become a wrecking ball, with a deluded dictator working the levers. Prior to 2014, we had a reasonably good handle on the Russian threat, today we are behind the curve, trying to second guess a rampaging lunatic.
As you say, what steps has the British government taken, with the clear level of escalating threat as Russia starts to rearm on a War footing?
I’m going to say, absolutely no steps taken, just sticking to SDSR 2019’s plan.
SDSR 2019 was a plan that’s now patiently ‘way’ out of date. We all know the UK clearly needs to restore 3% GDP on defence and plan accordingly, restoring our defence capabilities to match the threat.
Meanwhile our borders (and that of France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc) are porous and the threat from Islamists is probably one of our biggest challenges in the next ten to twenty years because of shear demographics ergo the Palestinian protests in central London whilst plod sits on their hands but then attacks with truncheons football hooligans doing no harm to anyone….The peace dividend after 1989 has made the west weak, stupid, ignorant, complacent and lazy… Putin, with Belarussia, played a blinder by importing third world migrants into Europe to cause mayhem, internal division and bleed our health and social security systems looking after these illegals which means we can’t invest in our defence and security infrastructure. Russia and China are playing three-dimensional chess whilst we play a game of scrabble….
Absolutely agree
Your post prompts what is hopefully perceived as a legitimate question:. A component of Liz Truss’ governing platform was an increase of defence spending to 3% of GDP as well as tax reductions, resulting in a probable increase in UK budget deficit. The bond market and currency exchange markets did not react very positively to this, and as a result Ms. Truss was forced to resign. If the platform had been constrained to an increase in defence spending, would it have been feasible? As an outsider, unable to properly evaluate this issue. 🤔
The real issue was that the Bank of England stopped QE bond purchases two days before the announcement and the Lettuce and her chancellor did not tell the BOE what they were doing. Trying to borrow more while the central bank is selling bonds was the real issue.
The US is starting to have much the same problem as the Fed unwinds it’s own QE and the Biden administration is borrowing at a rate of knots much like the Trump administration.
An increase in defence spending to 3% of GDP would equate to about USD 94 billion, which would be a (phased) increase of about USD 36 billion above the current spend. Increased defence spending (particularly R&D) tends to boost economic growth and job creation, which goes some way to offsetting the costs (DARPA’s impact in the US being a case in point). For comparison, public health spending (mostly the NHS) accounts for > 9% of GDP, while ‘social protection’ spending accounts for an even larger slice. So yes, the money is there- it’s just a question of how the Treasury chooses to spend it. The largest financial commitment Truss made was actually an open-ended commitment to subsidise energy bills, but I think what really spooked the markets was the perceived lack of fiscal discipline in general.
Interesting that an action, which should be perceived as a win-win proposition, would encounter opposition from the (political) class that should be aware of the benefits and would, at least indirectly, benefit from the same. 🤔 Unfortunately, in most democracies, the general electorate fails to recognize impending danger (and therefore the political class ignores the issue), until it literally breaks upon them. ☹️
By saying “Ukraine losing the war” you meant to say “the West losing the war.”
Losing the Economic/Industrial war, we have shown our weakness as the inability to keep up the resupply of weapons and ordinance to Ukraine.
We are being outpaced by Russia’s internal industry, and their backup suppliers Iran, China, and North Korea.
We all hope not!. Because we know Russia will try to attack other countries to regain it’s colonial territories. People want their freedom from Russian. They want to regain their own cultural heritage without Russian influence. Regain their national language without Russian influence. Have free elections without Russian influence or graft. This is all worth fighting for.
100% agree with your statement…don’t forget Taiwan next for China as they take their cue from Russia…..China will 11% take Taiwan as well as they have the military capacity to do it. War game play out on supercomputers have shown that a coalition of the US, UK and Australia (at current military capacity) will loose in retaining Taiwan as an independent nation state….AUKUS is too little and too late….
I would not say 11% I would say 100%…if china does not see a route to unification and the west does not suddenly change its ways and look like a set of nations that would willing bleed more than china in a world war, a war with china is inevitable ( china thinks, knows we are weak..in almost every domain required to win a world war). The only way to prevent that is to either 1) let china have Taiwan 2) convince china that the west would fight a multi year long global conflict killing miilions and destroying our economies for decades ( think WW2 level of economic destruction and even loss of live), because it’s very clear china will be willing to take that pain…even if we find it hard to believe.
I agree ,but to let them take Taiwan like they took Tibet means they won’t hesitate to extend their reach even further.. Look what they are doing with the Philippines. Are they next after Taiwan??
I don’t disagree..but I think china are willing to fight world war three over Taiwan…they see it as part of China and totemic….the west would get itself into world war three but I agree with china I think the west would in the end blink and we would end up with hundreds of thousands dead, economic collapse and complete loss of western authority.
The only for that not to happen is to convince china that it cannot even succeed in dragging it into the world war phase or that if it does the west is hardened for it.
that’s means
1) massive levels of military deterrence…the west needs to significantly up arm..,and show china the the whole west would be committed to war.
2) hardening our economies and supply chains
3) engaging in the Sub war that is going on in African and South America ( Russian and china are pissing all over the West here to be honest)
4) Providing massive support to Taiwan to upgrade its defences so they are capable of surviving that first two weeks where they will be on their own in case of strategic suprise.
basically if the west does not sink many 100s of billions into Harding itself for a world war ( as I noted china has specificity accepted a reduction in growth or around 3-4% in its economy to undertake this Harding) it will be in a world war that will cost it untold trillions.
what I don’t think china would be willing to do is fight WW3 over anything else. They are more pragmatic than that..but for tiawan it’s so very totemic to their national identity they will and have clearly said they are going to.
Yes that’s another country trying to exercise it’s extended colonial territorial acquisition by undermining territorial integrity. China and Russia have always been .. What can I get from someone else to make me look better.
How can I feed my population, by taking from someone else that’s doing it better.??
Based upon an extrapolation of current trends, reluctantly forced to agree w/:the majority of your argument. The US will fund some level of military/economic aid for UKR in 2024, but the amount will be subject to internal negotiations between the US political parties, regardless of the demonstrable needs of UKR. Therefore, anticipate that the 2024 UKR counteroffensive will only be marginally more effective than the 2023 edition, despite the introduction of F-16s, at least to a limited extent, into the conflict. The West collectively, does not appear to be willing (or perhaps able) to ramp up defence/defense industrial production to the same extent as the Russian command economy. Therefore, unless the Europeans, collectively, are willing and able to increasingly underwrite the burden of financial costs associated w/ the Ukrainian conflict, believe that a continuing stalemate is an almost inevitable consequence. Hopefully, a negotiated ceasefire, ala Korea, w/ some adjustments to current borders, is an achievable objective. Although undoubtedly beneficial for the Ukrainians, it is probably premature to predict the pathway to eventual inclusion in beneficial European institutions for the residual Ukrainian state (e.g., EU, NATO, etc.).
If this forward path is chosen by intent or default, fully agree that further Russian aggression is almost guaranteed, probably via Balkan instability/intrigue. The Baltic states would probably only be attacked if Mad Vlad had a reasonable belief that the nuclear armed NATO states would collectively ignore treaty commitments. 🤔
Which is why UK, as the main European supported of Ukraine, failing to increase defence spending is sending Mad Vlad all the wrong messages.
Of course Mad Vlad is banking on Tangerine leadership.
Although, The Tangerine did want to increase the size of USN……?
To be perfectly honest is Labour made a clear 2.75% defence spend commitment and Reeves came out clearly on T31 and T32 I might vote Labour….anything to stop the defence cuts as the overall situation is getting so dangerous now.
Our increasing defence spending won’t help Ukraine indeed it will hinder it. NATO members ramping up for example weapon inventory just crowds out Ukrainian supply.
However, at least in the US, a substantial portion of UJR weapon deliveries is a result of drawdowns of existing inventories, thereby facilitating backfill/replacement orders for updated weapons.
Is saving disposal costs ever discussed?
Possibly w/in official reports, but certainly not typically in the open press.
Ergo, the UK has the economic capability to significantly increase defence spending, if not the current political will to do so? 🤔
The main European supporter is by far Germany, by far
The main Ukrainian dithered…..is Germany FIFY.
UK made it happen with CR2, Storm Shadow etc
Ok that was Doris’ Churchill complex at play but he did galvanise things.
Military aid, Germany 17.1 G€, UK 6.6 G€. Let’s get things right
But what has been bundled into military support?
Headline numbers only mean so much.
Germany is very transparent, and it is an awful lot. In particular it differentiates delivered and planned. Highlights 2 Patriot systems, 5 IRIS- and a bunch of Leo2, Leo1 and much much more.
Check this out
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992
The UK is not increasing defence spending because, contrary to its rhetoric, it actually does not view Russia as a serious military threat beyond what it is doing in Ukraine.
Ya.. Russian wants to rule the world!! So we must stand firm that we won’t let that happen.
I would not vote labour just because Reeves came out supporting the budget Frigates T31 and more so T32 hardly a good replacement for Duke Class – Which would be better with extended like than bargain basement Frigates,
T31 with Mk41, NSM and Sea Ceptor is a much more powerful frigate than T23 GP……
T31 is a general purpose frigate , not a front line frigate like the T23,
It has 12 Sea Ceptor Duke Class has more. – T31 cost £250,000 and carries a lot less clout than the Duke class. T31nwill be ok for chasing pirates, and relief work.
T31 will not have sonar or torpedoes – Not an ASW ship. Will the T31 be able to carry marines and their landing boats?
T31 is a bargain basement boat and maybe the fleet will expand, but what with.
With NSM and MK41 T31 will have offensive punch which T23GP doesn’t really have other than 4.5” Mk8 gun and Harpoon.
We don’t really know how many Sea Ceptor T31 will have.
No 4,5 main gun, a single 57mm mane gun.
T31 will have 32 Sea Ceptor quad packed into 4 cell.
Will T31 be able to accommodate Royal Marines and their equipment?
We have T26 a large Frigate I mean how can a Cheap T31 be able to hold it’s own like a T26.
I would be over the moon with T31 if there was say 4 more Type 26 and say 6 Duke Class given life extensions .
US Navy make good use with older ships.
So what is it you know about the T32 that makes you say that ? Unless you have knowledge of this proposed ship and it’s capabilities ? Please tell us.
Well not a lot bar T32 will be be a low cost ship, if it ever gets built – never mentioned now, is it?
HMS St Alban will be the last Duke Class to retire in 2035 – Can you see ^ global warships. 7 T31 and if at all say 7 T31 all being built in11 years?
T31 is a GPF and judging by the noise when T32 was mooted it will be the same .
In effect when Juke Class is retired we will have 6 T45 Destroyers and 8 T26 Frigates a total of 14 Front line warships, compared to 18 now.
T31 is not a front line warship and T32 who knows if or when it will be built, you can bet it will be a cheapo
At this point I think I would actually vote for a party that promised 3% as a minimum..I think unless the west suddenly shows it’s willing to fight a world war ( with Cold War type commitment) we are going to end up in a world war. At present china and Russia are on trajectories that can only be prevented by a massive level of deterrent to show that the west could and would win a world war…or we back down..and give china what it wants..which would inevitably lead to Chinese hegemony.
Agree
Labour will promise that but will never deliver unless, they cancel Trident.
I agree, the UK and other northern European NATO members must now be prepared to replace US funding. Fortunately much of the production for basic items like shells is already heavily based in Europe and keeping them supplied with items such as basic anti tank weapons won’t be much of an issue.
France, Germany and Poland will soon abandon Ukraine, I can only see the JEF countries being prepared to continue the fight. This group should be the UK’s new primary defence alliance in Europe moving forward. Other big players are too unreliable now to rest our security on.
$30 billion a year in funding is a pretty small amount of money from the JEF countries combined.
Russia seems to me to be headed to full on North Korea hermit kingdom territory. It won’t be able to fight a war against a major peer but it will be able to continue grinding attrition for years until the Ukrainians get fed up and it will continue to pose a threat to the Baltic and North Sea regions for years.
Interesting, the French and German future possible conduct would not be terribly surprising, but the posited future Polish conduct is both surprising and troubling. Thought that the Poles were acting out of a sense of enlightened self-interest?
Yes I hoped for more from the Polish also, unfortunately as with many in Eastern Europe, western liberalism and democracy run very shallow. It’s worth remembering that Poland was actually the first country to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938 firmly on the Nazi side.
Fortunately we picked up the Fins in the process.
What a load of absolute crap
The 2024 offensive will only be marginally more effective than the 2023 one? HAHAHA! How was the 2023 effective? Losing more ground to Russia and eating billions from Western tax payers?
The 2024 ukr offensive will be in the outskirts of kyev.
Greetings, Mr./Ms. Troll. A virtual guarantee that will not prove to be the case, unless the prelude or opening salvo of WW IiI. In which case, perhaps we will collectively contemplate the ashes of the Northern hemisphere.
As others have said the west has been behind the curve since Syria and Crimea. Putin is putting Russia onto a war footing; Ukrainian forces need a rest. Ukraine needs to consolidate its economy and its politics. It needs to rationalise its armaments, build an airforce and accept some losses of territory in the short term. Live to fight again another day. The Berlin wall did not fall overnight; 1000 years of Russian Orthodoxy has formed an determined but patriotic mindset. On the plus side Putin has significantly failed to crush Kyiv and the Ukrainian spirit. Odesa is still in Ukraine, the Russian military have been given a good hiding and Ukraine might still retake Crimea. My betting is that next year’s election in Russia will see sufficient dissent to halt Putin’s new world order agenda. We need to bring Ukraine into the EU, put in place Starmer’s UK – EU defence pact, assume a leadership role in Europe and rearm.
Sincerely hope you are reading the tea leaves correctly. 🤞🤞
Yeah, me too. Consider this; that if Labour wins the next UK generally election Starmer will likely have the strongest mandate of any leader of a western democracy in recent times will be in a position to claim moral leadership of Europe and arguably the West.
Tea leaves indeed- Paul u mean UK should prepare to give away part of her territory!
If you are gullable to think Putin will honour any ceasefire , not my problem.
He will rearm and finish the job then the Baltic states are next on the menu.
Meanwhile China will accelerates its plans to take Taiwan while the Orange Jesus is in power.
No, no. Agree Putin only understands force. We must rearm. But we need time. Fortunately he is not ready. I’ve stated in other posts that the Baltic states are at risk. His most likely tactic is to foment a ‘democratic’ revolution by the large ethnic Russian populations thus circumventing the NATO membership.
A likely scenario. Given the geography. The Baltic states can be easily isolated by land and it is doubtful NATO can react fast enough to counter a serious push by Russia.
Yes I agree, UK re admission into the single market can probably generate sufficient economic growth to get us out of our current decline as well and help uplift the military budget.
All true. I’d like to point out that Russia as is, would be defeated in short time by NATO. Their only chance would be if China attacks Taiwan, getting USA overly busy in that part of the world and leaving Europe without full support. That would mean immediate strong recession and pretty much WW3. I think it’s too much, just for Taiwan. I have high hopes it won’t happen.
BTW Europe alone would crush Russia anyway, in my opinion. Demographics and technology on the side of Europe
Personally I think if the west does allow a Russian victory the crunch time will be 2027…
Any western weakness that allows a Russian victory would cement chinas decision to invade Taiwan. Optimal time for china to invade Taiwan is 2027 this is its greatest point of strength vs western weakness.
As discussed before, china knows it cannot likely win a short focused military campaign around Taiwan as it know the U.S. can focus more power for a short campaign…but it very much thinks it can beat the US over a longer term world war ( it’s spent around 2-3% of its industrial output hardening its economy for a world war, as well as preparing its population for that war)…
Some come 2027 when china rolls the dice on a long drawn out world war to strategic exhaustion it’s going to require its junior partner to participate in the war in the pacific and possibly even distract Europe with either the risk of wider conflict ( and so keep Europe out of the war) or simply attack to prevent European forces being sent to support a pacific war…I also think China will be trying to get iran and North Korea to do the same..as well as use all the African counties it has purchased ( none of whom actually like the west) as a way to block the wests access to resources.
It does seen insane to me, all of the geopolitical moves and geostrategic aims of china indicate its planning to likely initiate a world war in around 4 years ish time if it does not get its own way with Taiwan…our political leaders simply fail to comprehend or acknowledge what a totemic reunification is to china and that it will and is planing to go to war ( they have told everyone that is what they are going to do and have spent litterally hundreds upon hundreds of billions of pounds getting ready for it so far)..the west should be doing everything it can to deter china from that, by convincing it the west would be willing to bleed in a world war and it cannot win…instead we are balking..china is watching and it sees weakness all over the western world.
Have been contemplating recent political events and have come to the conclusion that it is time to seize and utilize the $300+B in frozen ORC funds to support the UKR. Lord Cameron recently proposed this action while visiting the US. Given the cautiousness of the current US administration, the UK will be forced to take the lead role, as it has on numerous occasions during this conflict. Three hundred billion would finance ops for 4-5 years. Really couldn’t envision sweeter irony than defeating the Orcs w/ their own funds. 🤔😁
The UK government is severely debilitated in war preparation because the vast majority of young people in the UK don’t view this as our problem.
What would we be fighting for exactly?
The UK is seeming less like a country and more like a multinational company every year. The Government imported 1.4 million foreigners last year to hide their failed economic policies in direct violation of the express wishes of the British people.
Not many teenagers want to sign up to die in Eastern Europe on behalf of a foreign Prime Ministers global ambitions.
Are British people going to die to defend American Corporate profits, EU expansion and the rights of anyone on the planet to live and work in Europe.
let Rishi and Boris send their kids, we’re happy on our island.
Unfortunately Ukraine is losing and they need to negotiate a ceasefire and end to this conflict. Russia will win a pyric victory though as it’s harder to be an Empire these days….they will try and roll through Eastern Europe Maybe this is what Europe needs to bring them out of their torpor but with the Islamist threat at home in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Spain I think we have bigger issues to deal with longer term. I can say one thing though for sure Taiwan is next as China takes it cue from Russia….I also read Venezuela is going to declare war of their nearest neighbour Guyana. Seems like the world is going to hell in a handcart whilst we have a senile old fool in the White house and we have Roland Rat in 10 Downing Street….couldn’t have come at a worse time. Where are the Reagan’s and Thatcher’s when you need them…..
I’ve been listening to the Daily Telegraph daily ‘Ukraine’ Podcast for a while now, anything from 30 to 60 mins long, usually in 3 sections;
1) News
2) A report
3) A interview
The latest one (from the 8th)
Ukraine: The Latest – Blocking Ukraine aid a ‘Christmas present’ for Putin, Lord Cameron tells US
Its on a number of formats, I either listen to Apple podcast, but it is also on YouTube.
Well worth a butchers.
Yes – the best long form coverage I listen to, and I have been listening for well over a year now.
I particularly like the refusal to lay down a party line, and continued championship of certain under-emphasised questions such as the thousands of children abducted from their families and kidnapped to Russia.
And their last question in every conversation:
“Is there anything we have not asked you that you would like to say to our listeners?”
The West is weak, arrogant, complacent, lazy, largely ignorant and stupid. it’s led by people that only care for their careers and not the UK or the wider western civilization. The UK population cannot even summon the effort to save their own civilization from internal threats such as Islamists. I’m no apologist for the Russian’s but they are playing three-dimensional chess whilst we play a game scrabble. For sure China will launch an invasion of Taiwan by 2025/2026 and we’ll loose that as well even with AUKUS which will take ten years to really deliver properly – too little and too late given the scale of the challenges we face. Russia and Belorussia have kept us busy with flooding Eastern Europe will illegal migrants to swamp our social and healthcare systems (and get us fighting between ourselves) meaning we divert effort from defence, security, border control and foreign policy to supporting ever greater numbers of illegals (coupled to the self inflicted harm of mass legal migration). The numbers of foreign nationals in social housing is phenomenal (read the figures from Migration-watch). These are zero economic benefit to the UK and make us a less cohesive society that is fearful of one another and with a scarcity mindset as housing is at a premium with salaries stagnant. Within ten years all these issues will come home to roost and the west (as we know it) will be completely different to what we see now. We have a senile old fool in the White house and a soon to be defenestrated third PM (with limited geopolitical understanding of the real challenges we face) in the last couple of years….Wait until we have Sir Keir Starmer and then we have the coup de grace for the UK of increasing irrelevance and decline…I really do put the blame fairly and squarely at the feet of the one nation conservatives they have done untold irreparable damage to the UK since they defeated Margaret Thatcher.
No surprise there with the Ruskies tapping into not just UK systems but the whole of Europe would be my guess. I did read the other day that 70% of global payments made by hacked entries went to Russian hacking groups. I also read earlier this year that GCHQ had dropped its UK only staff policy and wondered if we’d started to recruit a few Ukrainians or baltic people into the fold as they seem to be a few years ahead of us.
The NATO powers need to realise some home truths.
No 1 is that a Trump presidency is a very real possibility and if he gets back in, he WILL pull America out of NATO, even if he doesn’t, it is very unlikely he will honour his article 5 obligations. NATO needs to start preparing for this ASAP.
No 2 it is very unlikely there will be not be another weapons shipment from the US. The Senate is involved in a Mexican stand off and the republicans in Congress will continue to do the orange Jesus bidding.
No 3 Ukraine MUST win, if they don’t Putin’s Next target will be the Baltic states , which without US backing will be a bloody but short fight. The European powers need to step up and fill the void left by US. Or NATO will be left with the same uncomfortable choice to try and protect the Baltic states as the U.K. had during WW2 over France, which was to Use up our combat resources trying to help France in an unwinable fight or cut our losses and pull back until we are in a better shape, in the hope we will be back .
NATO states would be wise to heed Polands warning. Once Putin is done with Ukraine he will continue to rearm as long as the Russian economy holds up.
No 4 With Orban using the Hungary veto to effectively torpedo everything the EU does to help Ukraine, individual countries need to do their own deals to help Ukraine.
No 5 Taiwan and South Korea should understand it is in their best strategic interests to help Ukraine in the understanding that NATO will help them. ( as crazy a proposition as that is) because America under Trump will leave them high and Dry should North Korea and China indulge in a spot of reunification.
I will await the inevitable broadsides from my fellow arm chair geopolitical strategists,
Sorry it is very unlikely there will be another aid package from USA.
You think senile old fool Biden with his dodgy son would be the solution to our problems. If you do then you are asking the wrong question. I’m no fan of Trump but Biden is million times worse as he showed to the allies in Afghanistan. Look at what Biden is doing with Venezuela recently….turning the other way whilst they plan to invade Guyana…Biden is a disaster waiting to implode…who is writing the autocues he brainlessly reads from? Who wipes his bum at night and feeds him his food from a straw…these are the ones that are the real power in the US. Trump is just a sideshow…imagine if you had Kamala Harris (the cackle) as President if Biden passed away….
Apparently if Venezuela wants to move military equipment into the Essequibo area of Guyana the terrain is very difficult and would likely mean having to pass through Brazilian territory to reach it. As reported by the BBC. Can’t see that happening.
That’s what the French thought at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu and look what happened there. The Venezuelan’s are well aware of the terrain and will have come up with alternative plans. Moreover, I suspect that China and Russia will be providing advice and support…I mean what better plan than to get the US and UK involved in South America, the middle East and Ukraine…As I said the Russia’s and Chinese are playing three-dimensional chess whilst we play scrabble….What happens if China and Russia do deals with Argentina as well? What better way to entice that madman in Argentina than giving him the arms needed to take the Falklands…Moreover, that issue could divide the US and UK as the US would seek mediation and force the UK to accept Argentine control over the Falklands (nearly happened last time). It would be a perfect wedge issue to separate the US and UK as the UK population would never accept being stabbed in the back by the US over the Falklands. It would simply fracture the relationship between the US and UK for a long, long time. We have issues at home with health, housing, immigration and the economy so this could be perfect storm arising…I suspect Russia and China know what buttons to press to cause of maximum harm….how about the Russia’s turning off all gas and oil to Europe over winter? Our politicians in the UK and US are just not up to the task I’m afraid….
It is dangerous times and so many flashpoints. I enclose a link re Argentina and Ukraine which hopefully shows Argentina possibly moving away from the China/Russia drumbeat.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/ukraines-zelenskyy-heads-argentina-bid-win-support-developing-105530135
Again I’d be surprised if indeed Venezuela did make a move on Guyana, but who can predict the minds of madmen?
The new president of Argentina voiced support for Ukraine, to the point of Zelensky travelling there (!) for the ceremony. Jeeeez Russian gas is down to a mere 12% share of European import, oil is theoretically banned (apart some, minor though, violations to embargo). Do you realize that pretty much all you wrote, here and above, is fictitious and wrong?
As opposed to who. The orange Jesus who is so smart he doesn’t even know who the current President is, or what city he is in. Needs help getting down a ramp or two hands to drink a glass of water. A documented and proven list of over 30 k times and think Putin is a very clever man.
Who has been convicted of fraud thinks just because he was elected president due to the electoral college not the popular vote the law does not apply to him.
Put the US 7 trillion further in dept.
Go away comrade Troll
Okay so you want a senile old fool who dribbles in his morning coffee and has the security detail to wipe his ass and then forgets which side to leave in speeches as President. His son is extremely dodgy and used to call him the “big guy” in various “business deals”. You would also like Kamala Harris as vice President who anytime she is asked serious questions like did you see those Afghans falling off transport planes in the evacuation starts to cackle like someone high on hippie crack… Also read my post I clearly stated “I’m no fan of Trump”.
I am very happy for you.
I don’t have a vote but if I did I would take Biden over Trump any day, in fact I would take a dog turd over Trump any day.
I would say China and Russia play 3D chess and we play scramble.
I didn’t think of a comrade troll, that makes a lot of sense indeed
Please inform yourself before engaging in so strong comments. US announced joint military exercises in Guyana, which is the strongest signal possible.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan was signed with the Talibans in Doha by your favourite orange
First of all read my original post “I’m no fan of Trump” but then again maybe you don’t read but just insult people instead (lowest form of comment in my opinion). Comrade troll (again no basis in fact and again just the lowest form of opinion). If does you a great disservice to insult people when they post. I would add Biden was president and could have reversed Trump’s decision but he doubled down on the US withdrawal in Afghanistan without warning allies, such as the UK, which led to an internationally condemned (on the left and right of the political spectrum) and utterly chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Biden’s press conference afterwards was utterly inhumane as people had fallen off air transports (look again at that press conference and tell me Biden is fit for office). Kamala Harris laughed with her awful cackle when asked about people falling from transport planes (these are humans and not cattle). Biden is senile and Kamala Harris is out of her depth and both are typical lefties – try to appear nice but are just awful human beings really. Trump is not be my favourite president either because he is erratic and not honest or transparent so is unfit for office. If like me it would be none-of-the-above you would be aligned with me…Your hatred for the orange man (I just don’t think he is very good as president) blinds you from the complete and utter incompetence of the Biden and Harris double act. The US deserves better than the current Democratic and Republican parties (both are awful). This is similar to the UK where we have a moron in number 10 (Rishi Sunak) and a disingenuous liar in Kier Starmer whose views change with the wind. These people will lead to the destruction of the west and honestly Russia and China are playing 3D chess and we are literally playing catch up in a very amateur way.
3 to 5 all agreed. 5 I like a lot, Orban gets on my nerves. Per 1 and 2, I have a strong faith in US democracy. It has been threatened but they will do the right things
You have more faith in American democracy than three of my American friends do. One is already making plans to get his homosexual son out of the country if the election goes the wrong way.
I keep hearing this non-sense if the orange man wins I’ll leave the US…total tosh. I’m no fan of Trump as I said many times but such statements like my friend will get his homosexual son out of the US just makes people look hysterical and ridiculous.
Tell that to the Jews who didn’t get out of Germany, comrade.
I can smell a false flag when I see one!
Okay Tin foil hat time for you….
Sorry I prefer wool, it is warmer.
Just politely informing the debate on how one particular American feels about a second Trump presidency.
Not my problem if you don’t like it.
TTFN
Does anyone really use that term anymore? Really sounds like an old fashioned offensive term. Surely it’s just gay??
I fail to see why it should be offensive in anyway.
Well, for the first time in history, failure to act by the US president will lead to his removal from office by the military. Remember, this is more than an incompetent president- It is western civilization in peril
Are you refering to Biden or a future Trump.
Biden is not failing to act, it is the republicans who are holding up the funding bill. Biden is working within the system. I believe he can authorise emergency spending but I have no idea of the rules,
Hypothetical Trump presidency
For the military to step in would be an enormous step. Although I have no doubt a Trump 2nd term would put the US military into a extremely difficult position.
If Putin attacks the Baltic states, Article 5 will be called, the whole of NATO will wade in and Russia will be finished. Would Mad Vlad initiate the destruction of his own armed forces, and probably his regime as a whole?
And if Trump pulls the USA out of NATO, which was one of the main premise of my argument.
He could effectively isolate the Baltic states by closing off the narrow land corridor .
The only saving grace is that with Sweden and Finland now part of NATO, it effectively would control the Baltic
I did not spot that point of yours – sorry. It is of course conjecture that Trump could be President from a jail cell. He disparaged NATO early in his first term but decided against withdrawing from the Alliance.
Even if that happened and the US left NATO, NATO would survive but very weakened. Article 5 would stand.
So if Mad Vlad invaded one or more Baltic states, Article 5 would be called and Canada and the European members of NATO would have to respond. With recently strengthened Polish forces, recent NATO enlargement, Russian forces weakened by the Ukraine war and ‘the West’ having stronger economies and better logistics – it might well be an even fight.
[Let’s park for now, the nuclear issue!]
Re Trump in a prison cell , one can but hope.
My main concern is that we continue to be naive regarding Putin and I see precious little preparation for either the US pulling out of NATO or to confront the growing security threat.
Happy to park it but I will leave you with one thought. IF USA pulls out of NATO that will leave the U.K. as the ONLY member providing the nuclear umbrella. A covering thought !!
I hear Trump is sometimes getting confused, which might be dementia.
I doubt Euro NATO nations, including the UK, are seriously contemplating the US leaving NATO. It must seem to be so remote – and depends on Trump getting re-elected and doing something he considered but did not actually do in his first term.
I am still astonished that IR Refesh23 and associated DCP did not advocate any increase in defence spending in the light of the Russian war in Europe, unlike other European NATO nations. Instead we have a sizeable procurement black hole! Quite the opposite.
You don’t mention that France has got some nukes!
Yes Trump does but he is neck and neck with Biden in the polls and someone is pulling his strings.
I agree on defence spending , it needs to be nearer 3% but given the state of the countries finances , and the Tory fixation of tax cuts , I doubt that will change. Labour are making encouraging noises but I have yet to be convinced it is anything other than point scoring.
Technically France is not a member of NATO but appear to be a member in all but name. Perhaps a more informed head can explain it.
Another reason we will not have a defence spending increase is that Shapps is ‘a Yes man’.
France was one of the 12 founding NATO members (1949).
In 1966 de Gaulle withdrew France from the integrated military structure (but formally the country was still a NATO member). This nonsense ended 43 years later when Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France would rejoin the military portion of the NATO alliance in 2009,
My understanding of France’s NATO position is clearly out of date.
Thank you for the update.
UK and France please.
Ukraine at the moment have made no move to actually attack Russias oil and gas production, if the west drifts away then all bets are off and if Ukraine does attack production etc watch energy prices go through the roof!
If I were Ukraine I would blow up the pipelines mid-winter…it would cause extreme pain for all of Europe. It would cause a financial meltdown in the markets as well. It may just lift NATO from its torpor.
Exactly if they are abandoned what have they to lose?
Totally agree with you Jacko….If I were Ukraine I would see blowing up the gas pipelines as a strategic move. Also assuming that Ukraine comes under Russian influence again why wouldn’t Russia try the same game again. All those Baltic states will be looking carefully at what support they get. Moreover, if I were Poland I would be shi**** my pants now….
Let’s not forget that Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back at the moment! No airforce to speak of,donated weapons not to be used to attack the Orc homeland etc! All these places in Russia are not spontaneously combusting on their own either!
….and no conventional Navy to speak of too! So perhaps that is two hands tied behind its back!
[..except the drone-centric UKR Navy is doing a good job]
No great need for Poland to panic. If she is invaded NATO will come in. If she is invaded it is by a weakened Russian force. Poland is rearming and continues to do so – and has a strong undelying economy.
Is Russian invasion of Poland likely? Why?
No it would do nothing. Only 12% of European gas imports go to Europe. And almost all to Hungary and Austria. No pain, just a little sting
Not talking about just to Europe if they go after the whole infrastructure then China, India and all the other sanction busters get sod all! Then watch the energy prices!
Why would Ukraine want to cause extreme pain for her Western European backers? Biting the hands that feed?
NATO torpor? NATO cannot directly get involved – Ukraine is not a NATO country. NATO has done all that it can and individual NATO members back Ukraine and supply UKR with military, humanitarian and financial aid.
They are obvious drone or sabotage targets and wondered why they haven’t hit them before. Massive black clouds of burning oil moving across Russian cities I’m sure would start driving home the message that all is not well (pun intended)
I would assume that they are not attacking them so as Andrew has said it would cause a lot of grief for their supposed’allies’! However back them into a corner and all bets are off.Jake Broe on YouTube discuses this very scenario.
I agree, one of the main barriers to Ukraine going all out asymmetric is USA. If they abandon Ukraine, then all bets are off!!
Europe will not be invaded by Russia because they know perfectly they will be destroyed if they try.
Europe is being invaded daily by thousands of africans and other islamic People some of them radicals but this invassión is approved by the european traitors Who want the racial substitutión and the islamization of the continent.
Micki for me a native English man I wholeheartedly agree our greatest threat is the current ongoing planned invasion by hoards of military age young men with views anathema to you and I. Our young British soldiers, who often fall victim to ruthless money grabbing human rights lawyers, must wonder why they want to defend these Islands sometimes. They can also look forward to a life on the streets after they finish as broken men. You think Johnny Mercer (Minister for Veteran affairs) will do anything about these issues. Not a chance he is too busy having his wife promote his own interests in government. This is also correlated with the collapse in recruitment in the British army, Royal Navy and Royal Airforce. This country is collapsing before our eyes whilst we are being carved up by internal and external forces…I wish Margaret Thatcher was still around as she would have the guts to turn things around something the current incumbent of number 10 has neither the energy, intellect, moral compass or inclination to do…too busy wondering what he will do with his AI institute and US green card to worry about the very serious business of actually running the UK. Still I am at least happy he’ll be removed from office after the Rwanda bill fails to get through parliament and the house of Lords.
The good news is that unlike purist Putin and his henchmen, NATO and Europe are multicultural entities. That is why western militaries are strong, both black, muslim, russo, chinese, hindi green, yellow, white – the rainbow colours – separates Euro-Atlantic values from neo-nazism-Putin. Western countries don’t fight wars alone the way Putin is doing. Imagine the strength of NATO after Ukraine finally defeats Putin- I meant to say when finally a coalition of more than 50 countries defeats fascism and neo-nazism. China will not attack Taiwan anytime soon given the paper tiger performance of the Russian military equipment in Ukraine.
Not a fan of the DI maps!
There are far better-detailed maps to look at🤓
The Ukrainian forces have been breaking up many Russian attacks along all fronts.
Yes it’s often overlooked on the talk of Ukrainian offensive that’s stalled but they have really pummelled the Russians on their major assaults all year and the Russians continue to loose men and machines at an unsustainable rate.
The map looks blurred – often happens with digitised/scanned images. But is it wrong?
If the US witholds UKR funding further I hope the rest of NATO step up & provide more to keep UKR going, even sending forces to fight alongside.
Our whole way of life is under threat. Democracy may crumble if we go on accepting narcissistic egomaniac incompetant popularlists with no talent for ruling in the best interests of the people. All egged on by Russian & Chinese donors. Maybe that’s the strategy behind why we’ve been running down our armed forces so drastically.
If we let/encourage UKR to fail & accept Russian gains we’re giving a carte blanche for every enemy of the west & international law to do whatever they like. That will mean more wars, oppression, genocide & misery worldwide.
I’m rather surprised at the fatalistic tone of the comments here on this article thus far.
European NATO countries plus Canada cannot fight alongside UKR forces. UKR is not a NATO country.
Politicians have reduced our armed forces to save money – not because they want democracy to crumble.
I fully agree we need to continue to not accept Russia’s war, and Russian territorial gains. We are doing that in many ways – just not by direct commitment of forces into Ukraine, because we can’t.
I think we’ve fought alongside many non NATO countries, including S Korea, Kuwait, Israel(with France in Suez crisis Opreration Musketeer), Oman, Kenya. So it’s the politcal will that seems the only, though coniderable obstacle. The tiny size of our forces is a major limitation too. Seems more like won’t rather than can’t.
Frank, the big difference between your examples and going into Ukraine along the lines you suggest ….is that we’d be fighting the Russians without NATO allies alongside us.
Their army is crap but it is huge and has lots of artillery, attack drones and they are supported by significant air power. We could take huge casualties and the war would be ‘unpopular’ amongst the British public and most politicians.
It could finish off the 3rd Division of the British Army as you allude to and/or leave them committed for years, unable to extricate.
If 3rd Div is destroyed, then the core of the British Army is destroyed.
3 (UK) Div is also clearly not ready to deploy as it is understrength and has dated equipment and also capability gaps.
If we are talking Geopolitics crisis on here. 1st KGB Lt Colonel Putin started on the road to power through KGB inspired coup that had to fail, to get KGB/Military man into Russian Presidents good books, back in the day.2nd. Putin is a Tyrant Dictator who was not afraid to send agents with band chemical weapons on to UK soil and use them on 2 occasions. 3rd. Putin sent military to Syria and allowed Assad to use poison gas on Syrian people. 4th. Russia invades Ukraine and starts a war, to win at any cost. 5th. Russian Ally Iranian proxy’s attack Israel, knowing that the huge attack would unleash Israel into a war.
The next military flash point/invasion looks likely to come in South America between another Russian ally Venezuela.They are threatening to invade pro US/UK Guyana. Russian Dictator and his Kremlin Henchman have morphed a cold war into a hot war in Europe. Are we ready industrially & military in the west to defend NATO & the free world against fascist dictators.
NATO has done an admirable job since 1949 at defending NATO and the free world whose nations are in NATO. NATO will only warfight if a NATO country is attacked.
Until Ukraine’s allies can match or outpace the pace of resupply from Russia’s internal industrial output combined with supplies from Iran, North Korea, and China, then attrition wise the war is already lost.
Collectively the West has shown its weakness, with the inability for our economies and industries to support a large-scale attritional war.
This should be a wake-up call to our politicians.
It’s not looking good.
Ukraine has gone on to a defensive stance, and Russia is attacking on all fronts.
The Ukrainians are bravely fending off the continuous assaults, both sides have made minor gains/losses of territory in a cycle of attacks/counterattacks. It’s almost like WW1.
If Ukraine is going to win it needs to be on the offensive, retaking large areas of occupied territory, currently, this is not happening.
It makes sense for Ukraine to adopt the defensive for now – hard for UKR to fight both the Russians and the mud/snow/winter in the Offense, especially when they don’t have air superiority and have less manpower than the enemy.
Ukraine’s winter strategy might well be to hang on to what they have won, to not lose any more significan towns, and make small incremental gains and interdict Russian supply lines, whilst reducing the enemy’s morale.
I foresee this winter more lobbying by Ukraine for F-16s and more western AFVs and artillery and maybe some CA training – then a Spring offensive in 2024 (not saying all that extra kit will have arrived of course).
George should keep quiet until the war is over, then he can pontificate to his hearts content, not feed the enemy. Loose mouth etc. 🤫
It’s an image released by the Ministry of Defence you absolute balloon of a man.
No excuse for spouting off to boost your ego and sap the morale of the Ukrainians.
Oh dear 😂😂
?
Off subject I know but congratulation to General Sir Roly Walker. He has been appointed the new Chief of the General Staff, with effect from June 2024. Nice to see the good guys rise to the top. I salute you Sir!
I fully agree George. Gren Gds and 22 SAS. Lots of operational experience – op tours in NI, Iraq and Afghanistan. Recent, relevant high-level staff jobs at Army HQ and MoD. A very good choice.
In 2010 all Putin wanted was for Ukraine not to join NATO or EU. But USA and to much lesser extent its European counterparts decided to poke the Bear. Well now there is no Ukraine. Major investors like Blackrock etc have already bought the rights to infrastructure. There is no sovereign Ukraine, there will never be one for the next 500 years.