According to a recent press release from Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S), the Typhoon Total Availability eNterprise (TyTAN) is playing a crucial role in maintaining the operational readiness of the Eurofighter Typhoon, the mainstay of UK combat air defence.
The aircraft and support teams are based at RAF Coningsby, RAF Lossiemouth, and other global locations including the British Forces South Atlantic Islands at Mount Pleasant.
TyTAN, a collaborative effort between DE&S, RAF, and BAE Systems, was initiated seven years ago to enhance the way the MOD and its industry partners manage the support and maintenance of the Typhoon fleet.
According to the release, this shift has resulted in a one-third reduction in the cost of support services while improving support levels for the UK Typhoon fleet.
Wg Cdr Simon Davies, DE&S TyTAN Service Delivery Manager, stated in the press release, “The TyTAN enterprise is unlike anything else I’ve worked on. Fundamental to its success is the embedded behaviours within the entire team where a culture of openness, transparency and honesty takes precedent.”
He emphasised the collaborative working environment between the MOD and industry partners and the collective focus on problem-solving.
TyTAN is responsible for a range of availability services, including training, maintenance, and 24/7 technical support. The release notes that the initiative has successfully met its contracted flying hours each year for the past seven years and aims to ensure the availability of 65-70 Typhoons at any given time for the seven front-line squadrons.
The press release also highlighted TyTAN’s problem-solving effectiveness through a case study on the Supersonic Fuel Tanks (SFTs) of the Typhoon jets. A dedicated team, termed the “Tiger team,” addressed the long-term technical issues with the SFTs, leading to a significant reduction in maintenance hours and improved availability of the tanks.
“65-70 typhoons available at any given time for the seven front line squadrons”……… where to start.😧
I won’t mention it again Frank, Honest 😂
😁
That is a good number from the fleet available. Fleet managers from the 90’s would have killed for that kind of availability.
Yup, no argument there.
When the air defence of the UK relied upon five Lightning squadrons you would not have had anything near that number instantly available at any given time!
Just had a little look on Google…. In 1989 the RAF listed the following aircraft in their inventory.
229 Tornado GR1.
165 F2/3.
100 Phantom FG1/2.
14 F3.
100 Jaguars.
80 Harriers.
94 GR5/7.
65 Buccaneers.
36 MR2 Nimrod.
Plus quite a few more including Tankers and Canberra’s.
Now I’m really depressed.
U.K. Does Not Have Enough Aircraft To Fight A War, Says Official Report
Oct 5, 2023,09:01am EDT
House Of Commons Defence Committe
“The report emphasizes the importance of airpower to the nation — “Whether it be provision of UK Air Defence, global power projection, rapid delivery of humanitarian aid, strengthening relationships with our allies, or delivery of decisive and lethal action” – and the requirement for a sufficiently large and balanced fleet of aircraft to carry out all the necessary missions this entails.
The biggest concern is with ‘combat mass’ and the sharp reduction in the number of aircraft available since the Cold War. While all air forces have gradually replaced older types with fewer, more capable aircraft, the drop-off for the UK is shown to be much steeper than for France, Germany or Italy.
“It is true that mass alone does not win wars,” states the report, but notes that even the most advanced aircraft are likely to suffer major attrition in a serious conflict and that would rapidly eat into the UK’s reduced air force.
“There are serious questions as to whether the UK’s diminished combat air fleet can successfully deter and defend against enemy aggression,” states the summary “The MoD and RAF must urgently address this lack of combat mass”
No mention of the improvement in capability of hostile aircraft. Potential enemy’s havn’t stood still whilst we have run down our Air Force. One F35B is still only one platform and cannot be operating in two places at once no matter how capable. So, numbers are important not only for weight of response (or mass) but to be able to operate across a broad front. This is where the numbers of P8s and E7s are particularly important as these platforms are very good “force multipliers” able to direct scarce resources to the place of maximum, or best, impact. But if you only have a handful, or less as in the case of the E7s, so the use of valuable scarce resources becomes less efficient.
And while we sleep!
China’s air force modernisation: gaining pace
“China continues to build more and better combat aircraft as the air force continues to replace ageing aircraft with considerably more capable types: the Chengdu J-10C and J-20 and the Shenyang J-16 are increasingly at the core of Chinese air power.
The 2023 edition of The Military Balance tracks further improvements to China’s air force inventory. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is adding combat aircraft at pace.
It also continues to integrate onto its aircraft a range of capable air-to-air missiles and China’s defence industry is developing a new generation of air-to-surface stand-off weapons.
The country appears to have further closed a longstanding capability gap in the domestic production of military-grade afterburning turbofan engines.
Since 2016, PLAAF production of multirole fighter/ground-attack combat aircraft has focused on three designs: the Chengdu J-10C Firebird, Shenyang J-16 Flanker and the ‘low-observable’ Chengdu J-20. Between these three types, the PLAAF now fields over 600 aircraft in at least 19 frontline combat brigades and is looking to further expand.
Open-source information suggests that within the last three years annual production rates of both the J-16 and J-20 have likely doubled. For the J-20, IISS data drawn from the Military Balance+ database showed at least 150 aircraft in PLAAF service in early 2023, and if production of the J-20 continues at its current rate, by the end of 2023 this inventory will likely have overtaken that of the United States Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.
Although the combined US Air Force inventory of F-22 and F-35 low-observable aircraft will remain substantially larger for now, Beijing is clearly not content to remain a distant second to Washington when it comes to advanced air combat capabilities.
All three types are fitted with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and can therefore better exploit the PL-15 (CH-AA-10 Abaddon) long-range air-to-air missile, viewed by the US and its allies as a threat driver. The PL-15 is also fitted with an AESA seeker.
They have also begun to add new air-to-surface weapons to their arsenals. The J-16 was displayed with a previously unseen tand-off missile design, the AKF-98, at the November 2022 Zhuhai air show. The AKF-98 may result in a family of cruise weapons with unitary warhead and submunition variants being explored.
So far, none have been identified with operational units. A further missile, the AFK-88C, was also shown for the first time at the same event. This weapon may be a development of the KD-88 air-to-surface missile.
While China has already made great strides in terms of combat aircraft platforms, sensors and weapons, it had previously struggled with the development of high-performance military turbofan engines. The use of Shenyang WS-10C engines on later batches of J-20s, alongside domestic engines on the J-10C and J-16, indicates that Beijing feels that it has now also made significant progress in this area.
Another domestic high bypass turbofan, the Shenyang WS-20, has been seen on a new variant of the Xian Y-20 heavy airlifter, which may now be entering production. Heavy transport and tanker aircraft have also been traditional areas of weakness for the PLAAF, largely as a result of difficulties in producing a suitable domestic engine but are now seeing substantial inventory growth.
China’s heavy air transport fleet consisted of 20 Ilyushin Il-76s until the first domestically built Y-20s entered service in 2016. By the end of 2022 there were 50 Y-20s and 20 Il-76s in service, with more of the former in build.
The Y-20 has become an increasingly common sight outside China in recent years. It was used to deliver China’s COVID-19 vaccine and medical supplies to other countries, as well as weapon systems to some of Beijing’s growing number of export customers.
The PLAAF has not yet, however, shown any desire to increase the overall size of its dedicated military airlift force structure (currently sized at six regiments in two divisions). Instead, the new Y-20s have allowed for the repurposing of ageing Y-7 and Y-8 light and medium transport aircraft to training or other secondary roles, and possibly also an increase to the size of individual transport regiments.
If adding additional heavy transport regiments to its force structure is not an immediate priority for the PLAAF, production may begin to shift to specialist variants based on the Y-20 airframe, such as the YY-20 tanker, or a future replacement for the existing KJ-2000 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.
The addition of a substantial number of YY-20s, in particular, would represent a significant improvement for the PLAAF given the relative paucity of the service’s existing air-to-air refuelling assets. Coupling such a force to the expanding fleets of J-10Cs, J-16s and J-20s, and their associated weapons systems, would represent an even more significant improvement in the PLAAF’s overall capability.
And how many of the 600 are available on any given day? What’s the average monthly flying hours? Figures you will never know or released from the Chinese. Because they will be very low.
I wouldn’t underestimate China. They are not there yet but they are catching up quickly. They are not short on manpower or economic resources to continue their huge leap forward in capability.
So you are saying we will never know yet you are also saying that you do then ? …… Please share with us what you know….
But we do have an excellent idea on the F-35s.
Congressional Budget Office
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
February 2023
At a GlanceIn April 2022, the Congressional Budget Office published Availability and Use of F-35 Fighter Aircraft. That report used data through September 2021, the last month of fiscal year 2021. This update incorporates data for fiscal year 2022 and employs CBO’s recently developed approach for measuring the effects of aging on aircraft.
Availability and Use in Fiscal Year 2022. In 2022, F-35Cs’ availability and flying hours per aircraft exceeded those of F-35As and F-35Bs. F-35Cs’ availability increased in 2022; F-35As’ and F-35Bs’ availability decreased. Flying hours per aircraft increased slightly for all three fleets.
Full Mission Availability Rates. F-35As have had greater full-mission availability rates than F-35Bs and F-35Cs. Full mission availability rates reflect aircraft’s ability to perform all—not just one or more—of their designated missions.
Effects of Aging. All three F-35 variants have experienced generally declining availability and use with age. However, all three fleets are composed of mostly new aircraft, so estimates of the effects of aging on F-35s are tentative and are subject to change as those aircraft mature.
CBO calculates aircraft availability rates by dividing the number of hours that aircraft are both mission-capable and in the possession of operational squadrons by the total number of aircraft hours for the entire fleet, including aircraft undergoing depot-level maintenance.2 (An aircraft is considered mission-capable if it can accomplish at least one of its designated missions.)
Between 2021 and 2022, F-35As’ availability fell by 11 percentage points. F-35Bs’ availability also fell, by 7 percentage points, and F-35Cs’ availability rose by 5 percentage points. In 2022, availability rates ranged from 54 percent for the F-35A and F-35B to 58 percent for the F-35C.
Since 2019, F-35Cs have flown more hours, on average, than F-35As or F-35Bs. For all three variants, flying hours per aircraft increased slightly between 2021 and 2022.
Since 2016, full mission availability rates have been considerably greater for F-35As than for F-35Bs or F-35Cs. It has been common for F-35Bs and F-35Cs to be capable of performing one or more, but not all, of their tasked missions.
Effects of AgingIn a recent report, CBO analyzed how the availability and use of other DoD aircraft have evolved as those aircraft have aged.4 Compared with those aircraft, DoD’s F-35 fleet is very new: 87 of the aircraft began operation during fiscal year 2022, and as of September 2022, more than half of the 532 F-35s in DoD’s possession had operated for less than four full years. Only 44 aircraft were in their 10th or later year of operation.
As in its earlier analysis, for each F-35 variant, CBO estimated the relationships between aircraft’s age (measured in months since the aircraft commenced operation) and their availability and use. The resulting best-fit curves, below, show smoothed portrayals of the observed relationships. CBO used a flexible functional form (including squared and cubed terms) that allowed estimated rates to increase or decrease with the aircraft’s age.
In its earlier analysis, to reduce the potential for unrepresentative results and other problems associated with small sample sizes, CBO generally analyzed aircraft only at ages (in years) at which at least 70 percent of the fleet had been observed.
However, the youth of the F-35 fleet precluded the use of such a stringent standard. Instead, for F-35s, CBO constrained its analysis to ages at which at least 30 percent of the fleet had been observed. Using that relaxed constraint, CBO was able to estimate five-year aging curves for F-35As and six-year aging curves for F-35Bs and F-35Cs
Use has also trended downward as F-35s have aged, with some upturn for F-35Cs toward age 6.
To date, F-35Bs have had availability rates that are roughly comparable to those of Harriers later in their life, but the F-35Bs’ rates appear to be falling more quickly.
So far, the usage rates of F-35Bs have been below those of Harriers later in their life.
Hi Frank,
At a Glance
In April 2022, the Congressional Budget Office published Availability and Use of F-35 Fighter Aircraft. That report used data through September 2021, the last month of fiscal year 2021. This update incorporates data for fiscal year 2022 and employs CBO’s recently developed approach for measuring the effects of aging on aircraft.
Availability and Use in Fiscal Year 2022. In 2022, F-35Cs’ availability and flying hours per aircraft exceeded those of F-35As and F-35Bs. F-35Cs’ availability increased in 2022; F-35As’ and F-35Bs’ availability decreased. Flying hours per aircraft increased slightly for all three fleets.
Full Mission Availability Rates. F-35As have had greater full-mission availability rates than F-35Bs and F-35Cs. Full mission availability rates reflect aircraft’s ability to perform all—not just one or more—of their designated missions.
Effects of Aging.
All three F-35 variants have experienced generally declining availability and use with age. However, all three fleets are composed of mostly new aircraft, so estimates of the effects of aging on F-35s are tentative and are subject to change as those aircraft mature.
CBO calculates aircraft availability rates by dividing the number of hours that aircraft are both mission-capable and in the possession of operational squadrons by the total number of aircraft hours for the entire fleet, including aircraft undergoing depot-level maintenance. (An aircraft is considered mission-capable if it can accomplish at least one of its designated missions.)
Between 2021 and 2022, F-35As’ availability fell by 11 percentage points. F-35Bs’ availability also fell, by 7 percentage points, and F-35Cs’ availability rose by 5 percentage points. In 2022, availability rates ranged from 54 percent for the F-35A and F-35B to 58 percent for the F-35C.
Since 2019, F-35Cs have flown more hours, on average, than F-35As or F-35Bs. For all three variants, flying hours per aircraft increased slightly between 2021 and 2022.
Since 2016, full mission availability rates have been considerably greater for F-35As than for F-35Bs or F-35Cs. It has been common for F-35Bs and F-35Cs to be capable of performing one or more, but not all, of their tasked missions
.
Effects of Aging
In a recent report, CBO analyzed how the availability and use of other DoD aircraft have evolved as those aircraft have aged. Compared with those aircraft, DoD’s F-35 fleet is very new: 87 of the aircraft began operation during fiscal year 2022, and as of September 2022, more than half of the 532 F-35s in DoD’s possession had operated for less than four full years. Only 44 aircraft were in their 10th or later year of operation.
As in its earlier analysis, for each F-35 variant, CBO estimated the relationships between aircraft’s age (measured in months since the aircraft commenced operation) and their availability and use.
The resulting best-fit curves, below, show smoothed portrayals of the observed relationships. CBO used a flexible functional form (including squared and cubed terms) that allowed estimated rates to increase or decrease with the aircraft’s age.
In its earlier analysis, to reduce the potential for unrepresentative results and other problems associated with small sample sizes, CBO generally analyzed aircraft only at ages (in years) at which at least 70 percent of the fleet had been observed.
However, the youth of the F-35 fleet precluded the use of such a stringent standard. Instead, for F-35s, CBO constrained its analysis to ages at which at least 30 percent of the fleet had been observed. Using that relaxed constraint, CBO was able to estimate five-year aging curves for F-35As and six-year aging curves for F-35Bs and F-35Cs
Use has also trended downward as F-35s have aged, with some upturn for F-35Cs toward age 6.
To date, F-35Bs have had availability rates that are roughly comparable to those of Harriers later in their life, but the F-35Bs’ rates appear to be falling more quickly.
So far, the usage rates of F-35Bs have been below those of Harriers later in their life.
It was Roberts comment about Chinese aircraft availability that I was referring to….. He said “We would never know” yet he then said it would be very low….. which is a contradiction. All I know is they can send Dozens of Aircraft around Taiwan at a time and this happens so many times. The Chinese Airforce, has @ 4000 Aircraft including @2500 Strike and their Navy has@ 700. On top of this they have 3 Carriers and dozens of modern Destroyers, Frigates and Submarines plus many other craft.
I’m sure he will be able to give us a breakdown and supply us with the numbers!
An also you would need to factor in attrition , some would be bound to be lost in conflict
Exactly. Quite how people think the numbers are even remotely adequate is beyond me.
Likewise.
“While China’s nuclear capabilities grow, it is also updating its air fleet. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force”. The Pentagon report noted that “the PLAAF, “in particular, has received repeated calls from its leadership to become a truly ‘strategic’ air force, able to project power at long distances to advance and defend the PRC’s global interests.”
To do so, the report said, the PLAAF is investing in:
Upgrades to its fifth-generation J-20 fighter Developing its H-20 bomber, projected to have both nuclear and conventional roles “New medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets.”
On top of that, the report notes for the first time that China has fielded the new Y-20U tanker.
“These new air refuelable aircraft will significantly expand the PRC’s ability to conduct long-range offensive air operations,” the report states. “In addition to aerial refueling, it is expected that there will likely be further Y-20 variants, such as a possible [airborne early warning and control] variant.”
Taken together, all these developments mean the PLAAF “is rapidly catching up to western air forces,” the report concludes.”
Yes I follow the Chinese military build up quite closely…. the PLAN more closely and It’s staggering build pace…… There is just one reason they doing this…… Why can’t the West wake up and smell the Yunnan Coffee ?
Far too busy with the Longjing green tea!
From 2030. Over 500 F35’s will be operational services across EU nations and the UK. Not including USAF assets. Plus, all the other fast jets types in service. Typhoon, Rafale ect. Or F35’s in service globally. China has nothing close to that level of capability. 19 warships will be 5th gen capable. China. Zero. They are years away from a credible carrier force because it takes years to build up the experience and capability. Just ask the US Navy about that. All these fighters are cheap copy cats of western products. or 1970/80 Russian designs. They might look nice on the surface. But below the skin, they will be a generation or more behind. Let alone the total lack of real world combat experience.
Oh Ok then….. 🙄
Talking his usual crap, it’s not that long ago he told me the Royal Navy wants for nothing. Seriously you couldn’t make it up!
😂
Good point Nigel. Also in the event of us locking horns with China, would they be able to send and sustain an air attack on the UK? From my little understanding of military issues, I’m guessing they would struggle to attack the UK from the skies. The sea using subs may be a different scenario. Before any surface navel fleet got anywhere near the UK, they would be sunk.
However, as with many on this site, I agree we have few air frame numbers that gives us all concerns about deployment and at the same time protecting our national interests and air space superiority.
Cheers
George
Good afternoon George, From Russia, yes there is a growing relationship between both countries.
Also.
19 Oct 2023
Department Of Defence (DOD)
“The Chinese military is looking for bases overseas and looking to develop the resources needed to be a globally relevant force.
They have established an overall logistics command and they are working hand-in-glove with the Belt and Road Initiative to gain access.”
All the very best!
Africa and South America are Ripe for the picking…. China is the next big Global influence in the making and the pace of their military build up reflects this…..
Exactly, but try telling that to some on here🙄
At the rate of their build up, I predict the world will see a plan CSG take a tour of friendly nations in the Atlantic in less than a decade.
And I wouldn’t be surprised either…. China has a lot of historical “Beef” with the west…… we should be taking note.
Indeed.
11 Oct 2023
“The PLAN’s overall battle force is expected to grow to 400 ships by 2025 and 440 ships by 2030.”
Thats as may be yes …but don’t forget 1 Typhoon is equal to 10 x other aircraft and forget the 20 or so F35B we have …and of course once Tempest becomes operation it will be equal to 50 x…
Now as long as not every one starts anything not all at once we may be OK ….
Yes, this is what we hear all the time and some on here seem to believe it too.
Is that all? 😂
Yet 70 Typhoons presents a far more capable force than any of those combined.
So you are happy with this then ?
I’m happy that our capability, along with the US and NATO allies, is more than a match for China. China cannot match the west with conventional capability. Some of you are fooled by the Chinese propaganda.
So I’m a Fool then ?
No Frank. I’m just being realistic. Has everyone suddenly forgotten just how capable the Americans are on their own? The very capable Force’s from South Korea and Japan, Malaysia and Australia ect. All with very capable western equipment. F35’s P8’s F15’s F16’s ect ect. It isn’t going to be the RAF deploying 20 Typhoons to the far side of the world to face down China on its own. Same way you won’t be seeing any Chinese fleets sailing up the English Channel anytime soon. When it comes to China or any other major unfriendly nation. It isn’t going to be the UK V the rest of the world. And China cannot deploy fighters globally. Same way we are not going to be trying to invade China and try and fly Typhoons 3000 miles into the interior. Just think about it.
And out of all those fleets. Only a tiny number would be available on any given day. In op Telic in 2003. We deployed 32 Tornado GR4’s, 12 F3s, and 12 Harrier GR7. Today, we could match those numbers, but with far superior capability.
Well If you are happy in your thoughts that’s all that really matters…
Bollocks we could! That would leave nothing here for QRA let alone Falklands, Cyprus etc. Struggle with numbers do you?
I don’t know what fantasy war is going on in your head. But we are part of something called NATO. And allies called the Americans. Or did you forget about them.
No that could be deployed. 56 aircraft out of 100 typhoons and 32 F35b.
The article says 65-70 typhoons are available each day. That leaves enough for 4 at falklands, U.K. QRA
Now out of those 56 aircraft deployed in op telic not all were available everyday. Would be a good day if half the tornados were ready to fly everyday.
Also there are the reaper fleet that weren’t available for op telic to add in to numbers.
Granted it leaves it tight but manageable for while.
Funnily enough, Cyprus does not need Typhoons permanently stationed on it.
4 Typhoons in Falklands, not all are available.
56 out of ~160 would be achievable.
Roughly 300 fighters, 600 strike. I’d be happy if we had even a quarter of that now
Apparently we don’t need any more as we have the Americans and NATO minding our backs. 🙄
Pathetic numbers. In war so many would be engaged in uk air defence there would be nothing left to support the fight in Europe.
We no longer have an air force. Its a glorified local defence force.
Give over.
You can’t see what’s at the end of your nose, totally clueless.
I am realistic. With experience to back it up.
Pmsl, of course you have, of course.
Stick to Facebook pal.
He has, as it happens. Look him up. Like me, Robert does not hide his identity on this site, but uses his real name. He has a long career in the Fleet Air Arm which is obvious to even the most cursory search.
Does he have a long bushy beard as well ? 😂😂
Unlike you, no!
Wake up & smell the coffee Robert. Our forces are at a historic nadir & the Tories have wrecked UK society.
I don’t need to wake up and smell anything. I am very aware of what our Force’s can and cannot do. What is being spent on what, and what needs more investment. We have capabilities many just don’t understand. And we can achieve things only bettered or matched by the Americans. And I’m not talking about mass. But capability. As for your politics. That’s up to you. Its a free country.
That’s the real concern in my view, it’s all inter-connected, less destroyers results in more pressure on Typhoons covering the UK against air attack. I really can only guess, but how many active Typhoons would be required to do that UK coverage considering you will have to overload somewhat to cater for attacks from the high North? Quite a few I suspect, plus in any conflict overworked aircraft will almost certainly lead to reduced availability. Again I can only guess as to how many would be available to operate in Norway to intercept aircraft early from the most likely danger area to the UK. And of course add responsibilities to wherever the actual front in a Russia conflict might be, Finland, Baltics, Sweden, Poland could all be early victims of attack and are effectively for the most part in our area of defence responsibility within NATO and are likely locations for UK forces to operate specifically and thus losses expected.
Fact is without US backup those responsibilities would not survive as a sufficient operating force for long. So we better hope we can actually rely on that support then, though I guess Trump might want to protect his Scottish golf courses, at least if he can’t get a deal from Putin to preserve them intact and profitable for him should they prevail. Let’s hope they don’t offer Scotland as a personal fiefdom to make hay in.
Not just aircraft. The ASCS CRCs (Control and Reporting Centre ) that direct those aircraft were reduced in the early 2000s from 3, plus a reserve, to 2, and one of those is in a surface building.
The attached radar sites ( RRH – Remote Radar Head ) are still pretty much intact.
Without the radar and control elements it matters not if we have 70 or 200 Typhoons.
11 Group needs an uplift.
Bit of an over exaggeration, Marked. Too small, yes, but a local defence force, no.
Hi M8, Scratch your head time ! Butother than useless outsourced support businesses, Senior Officers and MOD Civil servants can you actually name a single item the Defence Establishment has anywhere near enough of ?
Other than Water and Air (Hot or Cold) I’m stumped to think of even one.🤔
As for the combat Aircraft right now we have zero on order past the remaining F35B deliveries. So as of 2025 with the Tranche 1 going we will have just 107 Tranche 2 / 3 Typhoons and 45 F35B. Take out the 1/3 rule and that leaves just 100 fast Jets available on a good day.
In contrast all our NATO allies have ordered quite a lot in last 2 years and even without those Germany, France and Italy have significantly larger combat forces than we do.
Its not even a home defence force but as the Commons described it.
“A boutique combat air capability”
Right now we have a Golden opportunity to change that courtesy of Germany actually giving the nod to the Saudi Order.
We could keep the Tranche 1’s in service purely for AD and to maintain Pilot / support crew numbers, leverage on the Saudi, German and Spanish orders and order replacements.
I’m a realist so no Pie in the Sky numbers and just order 36 Tranche 4 and the additional 27 Tranche 2 F35B to bring us up to 72 (+3 Test ones which are N/A ever).
Oh and 2 extra Wedgetails (just check the door clips).
That adds a bit more Mass and lower Airframe use in peacetime and hence help increase availability.
And as for the old Tranche 1 Typhoon, we always get rid of things just because they are old, it doesn’t mean they are useless.
With 60% of their airframe life left, take a leaf out of the USAF book, turn them into unmanned drones but with something that goes bang attached (see PLAAF JF17 for details). A 1 way trip to Kola and Kaliningrad.
I fully agree mate. Add extra P8 to that.
With regards Italy, Spain, Germany jet numbers it must be acknowledged all lack an SSN, SSBN fleet and supporting nuclear infrastructure. A subject I know you’re not only extremely well informed in, but have personal experience with.
So one for one comparisons do not always work.
As for those increments I’m no longer looking at this government but the next one. Hopefully some of that list will come to pass.
What does defence have enough of??? I’d have to think….there must be something!
Special Force’s 👍
Hi pal.
Hmmm, not sure. The supporting infrastructure has expanded, yes, as have the formations ( 18, SRR, and ** ) from Cold War days, but actual badged bodies I don’t know, and doubt given the reduction in the pool from which they come.
We remain capable of global, short notice deployment in various areas, which many a European nation cannot, with the logistical and ISTAR tail too. Even with our modest numbers.
But keeping these deployments going on an enduring basis is another matter, as the mass has gone.
Which is why although I questioned Marked comment on HM being a local defence force, which clearly they are not, I agree with the overwhelming view that numbers matter and that needs addressing, urgently.
I think we both know, the number of manned fighters is only going in one direction. With capability going up. Tempest will be in small numbers, the manned version anyway, with mass coming from unmanned and drones/loyal wingman ect. Even NGAD is only expected onto be made up of 200 airframes. Despite the doom that every everyone is reveling in. We could deploy 24 F35’s and 30 or 40 Typhoons. Now to some that’s a small number. In the real world, that’s a massive capability. Could we sustain that long term, no, we could not. But nobody else could either except the Americans. Our enemies definitely couldn’t. All this talk of war with China is exactly that. Talk. China can’t match the west, and allied nations in the region. The US Navy on its own has overwhelming capabilities. China wants global influence. I don’t believe it wants WW3. And with the cyber domin, a conflict could look very different from what people think it would. Why use Frigates and tanks when a virus will do the job far more effectively. Our numbers are to low, but moden warfare is vastly different from the 80 and 90s force structures people keep harking back to.
Hi mate. I appreciate all that, and agree, as you know, regards capability. Numbers remain my beef, I cannot get away from that.
On China, I don’t know any more. They might not want WW3, but if they go for Taiwan that depends on the wests response doesn’t it.
We can only hope that, ultimately, China will decide that trying to invade Taiwan will result in not only a massive loss of life wnd pointless destruction. But also an enormous hit on it’s economy, and isolated from the rest of the world. And that it isn’t worth it in the slightest. China’s military build rate is scary. But we both know those numbers are nothing without experience and training. And the yanks would wipe the floor with them. And copy cat technology will only get you so far. Communist regimes will ultimately fail. I’d give it 25 years before the Chinese communist party and its central committee will collapse. And it will be the Chinese people that will bring it down.
You’re not wrong Quality is a game changer but quantity stretches it and maybe too far.
I believe China doesn’t want WW3 but then their country has 3000 years of History so can just afford to wait for an opportunity with an acceptable risk.
If Taiwan is the objective then they have to negate the US ability to react in time to make any difference. And given its less than 80 miles away from China the odds a pretty badly stacked against anyone them able to do anything before it’s all over.
The present Salami Slicing tactics involving multiple sideshows and diversions is IMHO a road map as to how to achieve a suitable opportunity for China to take Taiwan.
Russia wants to take a large part of Ukraine, negate the rest and avoid WW3 with NATO. Well between Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis are diverting the west away from supporting Ukraine.
It’s actually working and even the US is getting stretched they are rapidly heading Navy wise to being Maxed out.
I actually think that if the ME blows up then China may just wait till the US, Europe and India are committed and then consider taking a punt.
If China takes advantage of that situation and use mass, speed and overwhelming all arms conventional force then I think it’s a Done Game. The clever move would be to also take no offensive action against anyone else, just repeat that there is only 1 China and Growl a lot. By the time the West has thought of a response that would be a reality.
We can do small gestures from Cyprus to make a point, but as far as offering a credible force we can deploy? No chance.
Yes, for that requires CSG. Which may yet arrive.
By comparison, who else in the EU nations has deployed?
Flying 3000 miles from Cyprus to hit multiple targets with pinpoint accuracy day or night in any weather is not a small gesture.
It is a Political inspired gesture and yet again a “solution” has been pulled out of the hat to make that possible.
What it reinforces is what we can do with so little, it’s
but it also an amazing demonstration of capability, planning and sheer professionalism.
Yep it was doable and has been repeated but it really can’t be defended as a sensible idea other than it was the only option available.
The idea of 4 single seat aircraft flying over 3000 miles at night, involving multiple Air to Air Refueling and hitting an enemy target half way through is “Challenging”.
To put it in context it’s roughly half the distance of Black Buck and you can stretch your legs and have a Pee in a Vulcan.
We have very the highest end Aircraft available and an Airforce that stands on the shoulders of giants.
But we lack Mass in every area and have too many tasks. Look at how our likely enemy and friends are stretching us.
Red Sea, Cyprus, Baltic and AD UK, they are Salami Slicing our capability up and it means we have insufficient numbers to go round.
As I posted earlier to DM I don’t think we need stupid Pie in the Sky numbers but an order for 36 Tranche 4 Typhoons and the 27 Tranche 2 F35B would be prudent.
That I’d be happy with (ish). A few more P8 and E7 would be prudent as they are force multipliers.
Oh and a proper Missile ADGE for UK.
It is an outstanding operation those Typhoons are conducting, in the very best traditions of the RAF. Those are sensible numbers. But unfortunately, I don’t think k the RAF would go for more Typhoons. Especially when £2.35 Bn is being spent on upgrading them. Serious cash. F35 numbers do need to be up into the 70’s range, and they can provide a huge capability. Agree with E7 and P8. 5 and 12 should be the minimum. I’d also up Protector to 26.
Just to add to the comments of my old pal, Daniele. I always find your commentary very interesting, Robert.
Based on my sums, we’ve currently got 137 Typhoons in the RAF fleet. That will drop to 107 next year with the retiral of the 30 Tranche1s.
Someone much more intelligent than me once said that, “quantity has it own quality” (or something like that!).
** Is there an advantage in running those Tranche1s on for a few more years (albeit with some additional funding)? **
Because in doing so, by quickly responding to growing international tension – the MoD would be effectively increasing the RAF’s planned strength by about 20% (ie maintaining 137 Typhoons/48 F-35).
Good morning Allan. Yes, mass does have a quality of its own. Especially for enduring operations. I try and base my comments on reality rather than fantasy fleets and budgets. With T1 Typhoons it comes down to cash. T1 is still very capable. But it is a very different aircraft from the T2/3 fleets. Its a fleet within a fleet. Much of the equipment is now becoming obsolete and very expensive to maintain and operate. It requires a different training and engineering pipeline compared to the T2/3 fleet. Basically, the RAF are getting far less return in terms of capability compared to what its costing them to keep them going. Of the 30 T1’s. maybe 10 are actually in service. 4 in the Falklands and around 6 on the OCU. None are on the frontline sqns. The rest are in the sustainment fleet. £2.35Bn is being spent on upgrading T2/3 aircraft. A massive investment. Because the RAF want the very high end capability. In a perfect world we would order 24 or 30 T4 Typhoons. But the money simply isnt available. And Typhoon is still very expensive to purchase. More than a F35A. Not when we need to fund the growing F35B fleet, and attention will turn towards Tempest. (if it happens) And the RAF knows we would be operating as part of a NATO or allied coalition (that’s the mass) And unmanned drones are the longer term future rather than lots of manned platforms. Hope that helps. 👍
It does help, Robert, many thanks.
I mistakenly had believed that the Tranche 1s were on the front-line. The rationale in breaking them down for spares does make more sense now.
Thanks very much for taking the time to give me such a detailed response. 👍
Always alot of misunderstanding on some of these topics. And the reasons behind the decisions made by the RAF/MOD are not as simple as they seem. The RAF will always go for capability over numbers when the budget available doesn’t allow for both. That way our Typhoons and F35B’s sit at the top of the tree alongside USAF assets. Capability brings options and influence. And some of our EU allies with slightly better numbers, will still be in the championship compared to the Premier league. 👍
As the war in Ukraine shows it’s not the shiny toys sitting on the runway ready to go that wins wars it’s what’s stuffed in the hangers and warehousing that will ultimately decide the fate of a nation. Unfortunately in a peer on peer fight you are most likely to lose most of your available fleet in the initial stages and unlike Russia who we all like to troll, we don’t have a reserve of any aircraft, warships or pretty much any ground vehicles of note.
We would be very hard pressed in a proper jostle to sustain any large operational tempo without the US but like the Falklands war showed when it matters who can we really rely on to come to our assistance without any embarrassing compromises?.
Our secret weapon, the will of the people to fight for their freedoms, democratic values and just causes against oppression and bully boys.
I wonder what that 33% reduction in costs has done to the cost per flight hour for Typhoon- must be pretty good. I doubt we’ll get any new orders off of it at this stage of the game, but good nonetheless.
Money saved here can be spent elsewhere.
As far as numbers, sure we could do with more- no argument there. But Wikipedia tells me we have 137 airframes remaining, with 102 in service. Maintaining a constant availability of 70 airframes for the frontline squadrons gives a 70% rate, which is really quite good I believe.
But, let’s for a minute take a look at what those 70 airframes are doing: There’s a detachment at Akrotiri (4-8), another in the the Falklands (I’m pretty sure there’s 4), and another forward deployed in the Baltics (4) so that’s 12-16 aircraft. The other 54 are, essentially, for defence of UK airspace and any additional international tasking we have on. What are they up against?
Russian Air Force (VKS) has around 63 Tu-22 bombers back in 2014, who knows what condition they’re in, and at least a couple of which have been lost in Ukraine. Considering they’ve got a long way to come to get to us, and they would have to split their forces between us and the rest of Europe, and presumably the US in Alaska, that full force is not going to come for us. Even assuming 50% do focus on us, we’ll have forward warning from Norway and Iceland, sufficient to get a good portion up in the air. 30 Typhoon with Meteor vs 30 Tu-22? It’s a very unrealistic scenario, but I really don’t think we have too much to worry about. What I would say, though, is that our deployments to Akrotiri and the Baltics should be a squadron each, without impacting the numbers protecting UK airspace- so we could still do with more aircraft.
In the Ukrainian war in the first few days the russians were lobbing 100s of cruise missiles a day at strategic sites to overwhelm and disoriente the defenders, we don’t have any active ABM sites so logic would say we could lose a large percentage on those first few days.
What’s the plan once most AD radars are lost and the front line airbases got craters in them? At the same time the largest cyber attack in history wipes out our power generation and communication which at the very least crashes the stock market and causes mass panic to the masses unlike anything we seen from COVID, go nuclear???.
We could have 100% availability on the parliamentary reports but the gaps in our defence are absolutely massive now and it’s going to take a brave new policy to fix this if not then stop poking our noses in and hope the USA comes to our rescue again.
OK, so at least half of what you’re talking about has nothing to do with Typhoon and general numbers of aircraft in the air force; quick reaction interceptors do nothing against cyber attack. If you think that we’ll be making kinetic retaliation strikes into Russia proper with squadrons of Typhoons, then I find that unlikely too- the country is simply too big to effectively hit sufficient critical targets to do anything.
We have what I understand to be a very capable AD radar network, which is linked up with those of other NATO countries; one of the big problems that Ukraine had was that the Russian aircraft launching those cruise missiles could stay safely out of range in Russian airspace. They can’t do that with us. Tu-22s and 95s would have to fly out over the north Atlantic in order to give the cruise missiles sufficient range to strike the UK (we’ll ignore for a moment why they’d be hitting us rather than NATO forces closer to their borders, but let’s assume they want to knock us out of the fight so that they can take the Baltics). We’ll know they’re coming long before they’re in range, and will have Typhoons in the air to meet them before they can launch- along with Norwegian F-35s, Swedish Gripens and USAF F-35s and F-15s from Lakenheath. The chances of any of those aircraft getting through are slim.
Would it be helpful to have some levels of GBAD on key strategic targets to catch anything that gets through? Yes. Does that mean that we need more Typhoons for defence of UK airspace? I personally don’t think so. Note, though, what I said about our deployments in Cyprus and the Baltics -that they should be increased to full squadrons- so I am in favour of an overall increase in Typhoon numbers to support our commitments abroad. But F-35B is going to be our primary “expeditionary” capability from what I understand.
I’d also point out that we have our own cyber capabilities, which are kept very quiet but apparently are very good. I presume that is defensive as well as offensive, so cyber attacks may not be as apocalyptic as feared. One lesson that RUSI identified from Ukraine was that cyber attacks (and kinetic infrastructure attacks) will always get through to some extent- it’s how quickly you can reset the system, replace any damaged bits (‘soft’ or physical) and get it back up and running again. That, I hope is something that the UK has taken on board, and acted upon.
What if a future war is not with Russia but another nation, how does the Norwegian F35s and US air force defend the UK if the war isn’t yet with NATO? and we know how unreliable the alliance was pre russian invasion.
To deter Russia unfortunately we are going to need to park our typhoons far as east as we dair to give russian planners something to worry over.
We might just be ok with QRA number but as you know with commitments to the Falklands and Cyprus along with a burdensome strike missions in Yemen the RAF is going to be very hard pressed to deploy during an all out war situation.
With the government in one hand sabre rattling and trying to be world police with America but in the other pushing unaffordable social policies, it’s defence that pays the price.
It is high time the generals and admirals grew a neck and say sorry we can’t do that with what you’ve financed, we either pull back and go all out in home defence with limited retaliatory means or actually fund the think being asked to do because we are in trouble if the RAF is basically 100 fighters, people thinking tempest is going to come in and keep similar number are simply disillusional it will be another cut to get it financed.
What you missed is that once the Tranche 1 go in 2025 we only have 107 left. Do the Math and just remember that those airframes have to cover the same number of tasks as tge present force. So they get hammered and use Air Frame life quicker.
The USN has found that that the availability of their F18C/D are significantly lower than the proceeding A/B at the same point in the lifespan. Much higher usage will do that, which is why I don’t drive an ex Taxi.
The numbers I worked from did account for the 102 in-service aircraft that I found reference to.
But you raise an excellent point about airframe degradation that I had neglected. I’m not against getting more Typhoon, and I do think that our deployments in Akrotiri and the Baltics should be increased to two “expeditionary” squadrons- which would require additional airframes.
Maybe I should refine my stance to be: we have sufficient airframes for maintaining the defence of UK airspace, and should ensure that availability is maintained through procuring sufficient spares/ replacement airframes as the fleet ages.
Having read various moans on here about aircraft serviceability i decided to use FlightRadar24 to see what I could see. I’ve been “spotting” RAF Typhoons on ADS-B radar – which anyone can do. There are, in the past 10 weeks or so at least 70 individual airframes flying through that time (the Falklands Typhoons don’t use transponders much so I haven’t logged their serials.) So that fits with what the report states. I’ve “spotted” all but one KC2 & KC3s and all but one AirTanker A300 – they are very busy aeroplanes. Similarly A400 Atlas – 17 airframes flying in the past 4 weeks out of 22, I thought they had serviceability issues? Interestingly F35s rarely if ever fly with with transponders on, so can’t “spot” them. So I “saw” the Voyager and Typhoons head out for Red Flag (via the Azores) but didn’t see the F35s go. The pair of F900 Envoys out of Northolt are busy too – they been all over the place from Alaska to Guyana to Kenya and Mongolia (!) over the winter, as well as all round Europe. On the “B” side the Hawks are only slowly coming back – 17 airframes visible out of 28 is still not good. I have’t been recording Poseidon as they are shy and less inclined to appear on ADS-B. The Rivet Joints always like to show up when on a mission, though, it’s part of the job for them!
UK Parliament
Written questions and answers
8 September 2023
The average monthly flying hours for the F-35B Lightning
F-35B Lightning
Financial Year: 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
160 140 210 180
Interesting observations, thank you.
Wow , nice to know we have such a large air force defending us . I,ll sleep safely in my bed !!!!!!