The UK Ministry of Defence has provided an update on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, focusing on the situation in the eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
The update highlights continued Russian pressure in the region, particularly near the town of Kupiansk.
According to the intelligence, “Russia has maintained pressure in the east of Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast,” with Russian forces now positioned “within several hundred metres of the Oskil river in a narrow salient approximately 20km south of the town of Kupiansk.”
The report further notes the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, stating, “It is likely that continued Russian attacks are complicating Ukrainian operations on the east bank of the Oskil.” In response to the intensifying situation, on 15 October 2024, “regional Ukrainian authorities ordered the civilian evacuation of several population centres in the area.”
Looking ahead, the Ministry of Defence indicates that Russia “will likely continue to make gains in the area in coming weeks.”
The report also points to Russia’s strategic interest in Kupiansk, mentioning that “Russian forces have been making sporadic attempts to regain control of Kupiansk since losing the town in a Ukrainian counter-offensive in September 2022.”
The town is particularly important due to its location on the Oskil River and its role as a “rail hub supporting Ukrainian operations in the area.”
The attack into Russia certainly showed chutzpah, however, was it at the cost of stalling Russia in other areas?
Well said and yes you are correct with it taking away drone groups, battalions and brigades who were better off being used to defend \ break through elsewhere
One of my colleagues thinks that Ukrainian unit equipment losses in the Kursk amount to 100% whenever the Russians advance. I’m wary of disagreeing with him. It’s exactly what happened towards the end of Germany’s invasion of Russia before they were kicked out into Eastern Europe. The Russians have alot of experience breaking fortified lines. He’s being saying the Russians will win ever since the invasion started, and he’s predicted every offensive correctly (barring Khrakiv). The Russians are winning, and once winter lifts, they’ll just keep going and going. 3 to 1 fires advantage according to Michael Koffman. The North… Read more »
NATO has to step up with weapons when General Winter sets in.
Ukraine manpower is another problem.
However, if NATO political leadership can convince Western leaderships to unleash the dogs, the UAF could mallet Russian positions, HQs, and logistics.
For me, hitting Russian stockpiles and logistics would balance some of the Russian capabilities / capacity. That could hold them back
I certainly am not an expert I’m these matters but other than an opportunity to practice “all arms” whilst not under to much (initial) counter pressure, with some tactical success, I can only see strategic failure. This unfortunately seems to be the Ukraine experience as it strives to escape from its own soviet style mindset.
For those ‘experts’ who say Russia is finished militarily and incapable of confronting NATO and that our hollowed out forces are capable of engaging Russia I say you are either ignorant or living in a rose tinted vacuum! Russia has shown it’s capable of suffering multiple reversals, setback and tactical defeats. However it has the time and resources. We on the other hand have the resources for tactical success but so few troops, ammunition and capabilities to last more than 6 months. With North Korea now providing troops this is no time for rose tinted glasses.
Spot on RMJ. There are certainly a couple on here who constantly deride Russia as any threat to NATO. The Russian effort in Ukraine has frequently been inept, their tactics poor., their kit underperforming, their losses very high. But they learn, they keep the pressure on the front line, they adjust their tactics and switch to a war production economy and are still dictating the battle. We make a big mistake if we underestimate the Russian threat to NATO Europe. With a population twice ours and conscription, they can field a large army that dwarfsallied forces, particularly if Turkey sits… Read more »
Too right Cripes and with Trump the US could also walk away.
I think it’s nearly time for Ukraine to get round the table, the trouble is now Russia has its tails up there’re not interested and I can see them making a move on Odessa and cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea and creating a land corridor to their enclave in Moldova. Then we’ll see Putins next land grab.
I suggest you start smoking something a little less potent,
If Ukraine negotiates it will simply give Putin time to refit , rearm and finish the job.
Further the Russian have no assets capable of an amphibious attack, they are now mostly artificial reefs dotted around the Black Sea courtesy of the ukraine non navy, further Crimea is now effectively cut off and any assault across the Dnipro is a recipe for a lot of dead soldiers and lost assaults,
With the Ukraine now building their own improved long range firepower. Russia has alot to be concerned about.
I think if you look at the war as a whole Russia has shown its quite willing to throw men and lives at any objective. Time will tell and I certainly do hope things work out for Ukraine but I feel they need more help quicker than they are getting it now and I’m getting the impression there’s a bit of war fatigue from some of its backers.
The introduction of NK military cannot go unanswered. Further it is time NATO started drawing some red lines of its own.
Further Russia meat grinder tactics must eventually start to undermine their ability to continue this conflict, their manpower is considerable but not infinite.
I cannot disagree there is a certain amount of fatigue but this is exactly what Putin wants and why this conflict needs to be ended,
The response from NATO to Trump should be a united front and one voice say “ don’t let the door hit you on the way out” .
Or are we really saying that without the US the total spending of 31 countries NATO is nothing?
It is time the NATO members realised that the USA is now a very unreliable partner, even if Harris wins and until the voice of sanity returns to the Republican Party , at any one time the US is a max of 4 years away from another Trump and all that entails .
Its taking everything Russia has got for a stalemate with Eastern Ukraine. National mobilisation. Thousands of young Russians dead. Thousands of devastated families. For what. Some WW2 style shelling. Numerous Warships lost. Zero air superiority. So-called 5th gen fighters proven to be useless. Having to go cap in hand to North Korea for some more 70s tech and troops that don’t want to be there. Its not rose tinted glasses. It’s tactical reality. A conventional conflict with NATO and US forces would not look like this. Which is why Russia won’t step foot in a NATO nation. Because they know… Read more »
Its a question of who runs out of troops, ammo, and equipment first, as much as Russia has taken a hammering, they keep firing and they keep attacking, they still have sizeable reserves to continue. There is a clear danger now that UKR forces will totally wear down on one or two fronts, and Russia will breakthrough to undefended territories.
Agreed 👍
Get real. NATO has over 500 typhoons. If Ukraine had 500 typhoons (not even counting Rafale, Gripen or anything US made) there wouldn’t be a Russian soldier on Ukrainian territory. Russia doesn’t have a MIG or SU within 200 miles of Ukraine. And Ukraine doesn’t even have a proper airforce. Russias GDP is 2 thirds of the UK. And dropping. Things cost money. You don’t have to be an expert to put 2 and 2 together. It’s plain common sense. Other possibly than its subs, Russia has been exposed and is not equipped for modern conventional warfare.
I think we underestimate their ability to regenerate and resupply their front line forces and this is the strength they play to by using attrition tactics.
There are about 20 Ukrainian Battalions \ Brigades in that Kupiansk area!
Im more concerned about the Pokrovsk sector, which is very fragile