At a press briefing hosted by the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), experts highlighted the UK’s role in Arctic security amid its Defence Review and changing geopolitical realities in the High North.
During the session, I asked:
“With the UK retiring two of its assault ships, does this diminish the UK’s role in the Arctic? More generally, what role do you believe the UK is best suited to play now and in the future, in the shadow of its ongoing Defence Review?”
Lance Landrum, Senior Fellow at CEPA, responded by emphasising that political will and strategic engagement are far more critical than the availability of specific military assets.
“Some changes in specific capabilities, in the sense of onesies and twosies, are less important than the political will and the willingness to engage and to be strong in the region,” he explained.
Landrum highlighted that effective Arctic security requires a multi-dimensional approach that combines diplomatic, economic, and military efforts. He stated, “Political engagement, the diplomatic engagement, through the information space, economic space, and the military space all combined” is what truly sustains influence in the region.
CEPA Report on Arctic Security
The recent report from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), titled Up North: Confronting Arctic Insecurity – Implications for the United States and NATO, explores the rapidly evolving security landscape in the Arctic. The study highlights challenges posed by Russia’s increased military operations and the broader implications of strategic competition, climate change, and critical domain awareness gaps.
“Regional stability is highly contingent upon successful Arctic-specific deterrence against existing regional threats. A carefully crafted regional presence will help the US and its six allies create appropriate deterrence.” https://t.co/weZIhyx8Y0
— CEPA (@cepa) December 8, 2024
Key insights from the report include:
- Russia’s growing use of low-intensity warfare tactics, including air incursions, GPS jamming, electronic warfare, and subsea activities targeting critical infrastructure.
- Risks of miscalculation or unintended escalation at Arctic choke points.
- Persistent gaps in allied domain awareness, compounded by overlapping command structures.
- The need for a unified NATO approach to Arctic security, bolstered by Finland’s and Sweden’s recent accession to the alliance.
- Recommendations for an Arctic Military Code of Conduct and increased use of emerging technologies like uncrewed systems and space-based assets to improve deterrence and defence.
The report emphasises the importance of creating a predictable and transparent security framework tailored to Arctic conditions.
For the full report, visit CEPA’s official page here.
The briefing underscored the Arctic’s growing strategic importance, with its rapidly changing environment and geopolitical competition. While Russia’s force posture and China’s increasing interest are notable, Landrum argued that a united approach among allies is essential to ensuring stability.
“Russia’s changes in force posture are notable, but I also think the political part is really important,” he said, stressing the need for sustained political backing to ensure effective engagement. He also pointed out that prioritisation and resourcing remain crucial for nations to fulfil their commitments in the Arctic.
This focus on political will aligns with broader NATO goals in the High North, where collaboration between allied nations underpins much of the effort to deter threats and respond to emerging challenges.
CEPA’s report, Up North: Confronting Arctic Insecurity, explores these themes in greater detail, offering insights into how the region’s security dynamics are rapidly evolving.
The UK’s Role
The UK’s retirement of its assault ships may appear to diminish its operational capacity, but as Landrum noted, this should not necessarily signal a reduced presence. He stressed that influence in the Arctic depends on broader strategic commitments rather than the loss or gain of specific platforms. “The capacity to engage in these areas and sustain that engagement is crucial to maintaining influence,” he said.
As the UK refines its Defence Review, its ability to remain a key player in Arctic security will hinge on its political commitment and collaborative efforts with NATO allies. While military assets are undeniably important, it is the will to act decisively that will ultimately shape the UK’s standing in the High North.
This briefing reinforced the notion that Arctic security cannot be addressed in isolation and requires long-term commitment across multiple fronts. For the UK, balancing strategic priorities while fostering partnerships will remain key to its role in the region.
Surely this is the wrong way of looking at it ? We need BOTH platforms AND political will. It’s not helpful to say that political will is more important than platforms !
It’s okay, the politicians will use their Willpower to float our troops across the ocean
Absolutely. We need the political will to spend money on the necessary assets.
“The capacity to engage in these areas and sustain that engagement is crucial to maintaining influence,” he said. – Yuckspeak as per usual. It’s like those allegedly inspirational quotes on FB that positive thinking means positive attitude rubbish. The reality is to get boots on the ground you have air, land or sea. Every conflict we have partaken in has used the landing ships to move people and material.
I stopped at “onesies and twosies”, another pile of gobbledegook.