During an episode of the Lord Speaker’s podcast, Lord West delivered an extended warning that the UK now sits inside what he called an undeclared conflict with Russia, arguing that the scale and persistence of Moscow’s hostile activity places Europe in a precarious strategic position.
He said, “It is extraordinary that we are in this grey zone warfare now. I mean, effectively we are at war with Russia.” He pointed to persistent attempts to probe undersea infrastructure, the arrival of Russian-linked drones, and elevated military pressure in the Arctic.
According to him, “the huge pressure they’re putting up in the Arctic region… is causing real problems for the Scandinavian countries, which is why Norway bought some of our frigates and is very involved with us.”
West stressed that the situation is both volatile and difficult to unwind. “It’s quite difficult to see how one’s going to get out of this because one doesn’t want a full war between NATO and Russia. They would lose it. And the danger with them losing it is would they then make that stupid mistake of going nuclear?” He said that possibility hangs over any scenario where Moscow perceives existential defeat.
He framed the broader confrontation as a continuation of miscalculations in Ukraine. “Thank goodness we are supporting Ukraine. Putin made a major error there,” he said. West argued that China’s leadership recognises the scale of that misstep, recalling that Putin assured Xi Jinping the conflict would be a short operation. “He said, ‘Well, I’m doing a special operation. It’ll go on for three weeks.’ Well, it hasn’t, has it? He’s completely made a major, major strategic blunder.”
Despite this, West noted China remains willing to support Russia in limited ways, which he tied to long-running geopolitical patterns. “The Chinese can spot that, although sadly they’re still willing to support him. And again, these links and linkages, they come out over the years, years and years of working and operating.”
He also placed current tensions in a longer historical arc, contrasting the present with his experiences during the withdrawal from Hong Kong in the late 1990s. He described Chinese naval behaviour at the time as confrontational and recalled later visits as Chief of Defence Intelligence where surveillance was so overt his wife joked “Good night everyone” when the lights went out.
Lord West of Spithead is a Labour Peer and a former Head of the Royal Navy. He joined the Royal Navy in 1965 and served as First Sea Lord and Commander in Chief of the Royal Navy from 2002 to 2006. From 2007 to 2010, he was Minister for Security, Counter-terrorism and Police. The full conversation is available on the Lord Speaker’s podcast here.
And in the time he was ISL he was one of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for reductions in navy hull numbers and equipment and personnel. Sits his well padded arse on plush upholstery in the Lords, pontificating as if he had nothing to do with the mess he created.
Exactly.
GB has detailed this before, as well as what a compete arse he seemed to be with his men from his own personal recollections of him.
It amazes me how often people like West and Carter get quoted or interviewed about defence matters. Carter was on months ago bemoaning a lack of Tanks FFS…the same Tanks he wanted gone when he was CGS then CDS.
Luckily, Ajax was so delayed the KRH never converted.
West oversaw the cutting of a dozen or so vessels, maybe more.
Strirup is another, gravely confering on military affairs in the Lords and condoned the 2010 SDSR with words which I recall were long the lines of “shaping the forces for an uncertain world.”
General Saunders seems to have been an exception to the yes men.
Morning Mate,
I share your sense of frustration at the evident hypocrisy being demonstrated by many, but to be fair the strategic situation has taken a big change for the worse. True these people should have been arguing for caution and making the point that it would be very easy to cut and a damn site harder to rebuild, but…
The point is right now any voice with any kind of perceived authority is welcome because very few folk out there will remember the details of defence decision making from 20 years ago – ancient history to most people 🙁
The more noise for increased defence spending the better.
Now where is the bloody Defence Investment Plan..?
Cheers CR
The DIP is due this Autumn. That means before December 21st. That’s a weekend, so they’ll aim for Friday December 19th. Something will go wrong because something always does. The following week is Christmas. So I reckon DIP will come around the third week in January, next year.
Yep this is the man who oversaw the plan of 12 AAW destroyers moving to 8 in 2003 and finally 6 by 2008… as well as the reduced of the frigate fleet from 20 to 17 and the constant delay of the type 23 replacement.. so this is the man who oversaw the escort fleet officially dropping from a planned 32 to 23 and played an equal part in the mid 20s type 23 crisis.
The UK has quite a history of this, Churchill was only too happy to gut the armed forces when chancellor then as soon as he was on the backbenches he called for war time spending in peace time.
Russia lacks the capacity to form any kind of conventional threat to the UK much less NATO and no amount of UK spending will protect us from an unconventional threat.
The period of hostilities with Russia will only end when Putin leaves office which is likely only going to happen when he dies. That could easily be in a year or twenty years from now.
No amount of frigate or tank procurement on the UK’s part will hasten that.
We need more voices in government to raise defence issues. I don’t believe we are at a ‘Call Wolf’ moment. Putin’s armour may have been depleted, but Russia is far from beaten and can step up the electronic offensives to the point that general disruption to our lives could become unbearable. We have little idea what Starmer’s Government is doing behind the scenes to counter this threat. I just hope it’s been given the urgency it requires.
I say frankly we should take care of the invaders that constantly cross the channel first, but yes I would love to see a stronger royal navy.
An enlargement of the RAF would also be great or if failing that, more ground based AA systems. I doubt either will happen, but a man can dream