UK Defence Intelligence has reported that Russia launched approximately 4,400 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian targets in January 2026, a moderate decrease from around 5,100 launched in December 2025, the Ministry of Defence stated.
In its latest update on 19 February 2026, Defence Intelligence said: “In January 2026 Russia launched approximately 4,400 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian targets. This was a moderate decrease from the approximately 5,100 OWA UAS that Russia launched in December 2025, almost certainly due to poorer weather conditions in January 2026.”
However, the assessment said Russian strike activity increased again in early February. Defence Intelligence stated: “Daily launch rates increased significantly in the first two weeks of February 2026, with Russia averaging approximately 190 per day compared to approximately 140 per day in January 2026. This follows a short pause in energy strikes from 28 January 2026 – 2 February 2026 that both sides broadly observed. Russia immediately returned to widespread energy sector targeting in Ukraine on 3 February 2026.”
The update said Russia has focused heavily on energy-related infrastructure since late 2025. It stated: “Energy-related critical national infrastructure (CNI) has been Russia’s primary target since the beginning of October 2025. Russia has launched more than 20,000 OWA UAS and more than 300 of its premier air launched missiles, fired by its long-range bomber fleet, in attempts to systematically destroy Ukraine’s electrical grid and heat generation capacity. Water provision is also being impacted by this concerted campaign as a second order effect.”
Defence Intelligence said any reduction in missile usage could enable Russia to rebuild stockpiles while maintaining pressure through alternative systems. It stated: “Any pause in this missile usage allows Russia to build its stocks for future strikes with its primary target almost certain to remain energy CNI. Russia can also offset any gaps in long-range bomber usage by drawing on its arsenal of deep strike weapons. Short range ballistic missiles have been heavily relied upon by Russia for this purpose, used in far greater numbers during this winter strike campaign than previously in the conflict.”
