The Government has declined to say whether the UK intends to procure the Nightfall ballistic missile, instead pointing to the forthcoming Defence Investment Plan for decisions on Britain’s future precision strike.
In a written question, Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty asked what assessment the Secretary of State for Defence had made of the potential impact of procuring the Nightfall missile on the UK’s precision fires capability. The question directly raised the prospect of the system contributing to Britain’s own long-range strike inventory.
Responding for the Ministry of Defence, Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry Luke Pollard focused on the programme’s stated purpose.
“The new ballistic missiles developed under Project Nightfall are intended to provide Ukraine with a long range-capability to counter Russian aggression as rapidly as possible,” he said.
Pollard added that “decisions on the UK’s precision strike capabilities will be prioritised appropriately against the threat as part of the future Integrated Force and set out in the Defence Investment Plan to be published this year.”
There is no indication that Nightfall is currently being considered as a defined UK procurement programme. Instead, ministers are signalling that any changes to Britain’s precision fires capability, whether involving Nightfall or alternative systems, will be addressed within the wider force design and investment process due to be outlined later this year.
Yet another non answer with anything concrete awaiting the DIP later this year. This government gives the impression it simply doesn’t know what to do.
Why do you think that is an impression rather than reality?
I scent an internal war on the defence budget increase. The manufacturing unions want the money spent, Starmer wants the money spent as industrial strategy in UK produced weapons.
Army wants MOTS/COTS basically anything that works now.
Navy is more relaxed as the hulls will be UK produced and it is happy with A30 and CAMM etc.
RAF wants more F35A and Starmer and the unions want Typhoon. This is where the F35B -> A game has backfired as they could have used RN / CSG as cover for more F35B.
It is also worth noting that the last working day before Leonardo’s NMH offer expires is tomorrow with no sign of an announcement, let alone the DIP.
Next Tuesday March 3rd is the date Reeves delivers her spring forecast statement to MPs. I would guess the spending depts will have sight of the funds they have been alllocated from Monday and assuming there is some decision on Ajax, can work on the DIP. They will likely leak decisions on some urgent items like NMH to Leonardo
There are rumours the medium helicopter contract will be announced next week. The whole DIP could be published with the Spring Forecast on the 3rd March.
Apparently a visit by Healey was abruptly and at short notice “delayed” today, where Leonardo expected a contract for NMH to be announced. Note I don’t know if this visit was the March visit or something they’d planned earlier. Source: Francis Tusa on X.
Probably a protocol thing. Healey could have been jumping the gun and announcing the NMH contract before Reeves had informed MPs of the spending forecast on Tuesday.
I’m sure the forces and the defence ministers know very well what they need to do and what.equipment they need to do it. The delay in finalising the DIP is now primarily down to money. The services claim to be £28 bn short to fund defence investment over the next ten years. There is no chance of getting that from the public purse, the nation is about skint and every department needs more cash following years of austerity.
The Chancellor has the options to (a) exclude defence spending fron the fiscal borrowing rules, as pet Germany, (b) borrow the money for a one-off investment in equipment as per the EU’s SAFE scheme or a UK equivalent, (c) raise.the money through defence bonds basically Treasury gilts or (d) put a 1p in the pound levy on taxes. The first three mean she would have to breach her borrowing rules , the fourth would breach HMG’s tax pledges. But the government will have to choose one of these doors or else cut the investment plan back by £28bn.
The best we can hope for is a compromise, where some more new money is provided by HMT, which.has now got £30bn headroom in its fiscal policy, but a lot.of the grand new schemes like Atlantic Bastion are scaled back sharply and delivery times pushed to the right.
.
Cripes,
Wonder whether the forecasted £28Bn shortfall in the procurement budget also includes the agreed expansion of MoD’s budget to 3.5% of GDP by 2035? Accountants, especially those of the governmental variety, should be accorded continuing, close scrutiny, throughout the developed world. 🤔😉
I would think that the missing £28bn is almost certainly the shortfall to get spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
The known maths tell us this: HMG has committed to increasing defence spend from £62.5bn this coming year to £73.5bn in FY 2027/8, to arrive at 2.5% of GDP. (Well 2.6% in government-speak, being 2.5% core defence and 0.1% intelligence services). If we extrapolate that increase out to 2035 and the 3.5% target, it would need another.2.8m each year, so a total of…. £28bn. So that looks to fit.
A supporting fact is that these defence investment plans are a rolling 10-year plan, which gets updated every year. So the services are looking at what they need versus what they can afford to buy through to end March 2036. The answer looks to be that £101bn is.the figure they are working to.
Thing is the departments are not actually short of spending money. Budgets were and are historically high in most departments – money is just spent quite badly.
A lot of this is down to Doris’ crowd pleaser spending splurges which bloated out the public sector and entrenched high headcount’s which are hard to reverse.
DIP published THIS YEAR! What a waste of words.
This is actually a softening of the government position, as previously IIRC they had said there were ‘no plans’ to procure Nightfall for our own use.
The answer is no then.
O/T but what are Prince Harry and Meghan doing in Jordan? Selling RBSL Challenger refurbishment services perhaps?
Yawn.
What a way to run the defence of the realm.
Yet no other Dept has to publish an ‘investment plan’ money is thrown at the NHS ( double the budget but no improvement in service since 2010)HO can spunk £Bs on illegals,FO can pay to give away sovereign territory,mad Ed snaps his fingers and £Bs end up at GB energy!It really is bonkers!!
Makes sense, who would buy initial version without seeing it in action from a country that never developed such weapons?
Every unit we buy for ourselves is one redirected from Ukraine where they can produce baby be fired as fast as they are delivered. Right now, send them to Ukraine I think