The Treasury has taken on responsibility for the cost of further support for ongoing international objectives, including Ukraine security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire, transferring that risk away from the Ministry of Defence when the Defence Investment Plan was finalised, according to an answer given in Parliament.
Ben Obese-Jecty, the Conservative member for Huntingdon, asked which risks had been transferred to the Treasury from the Ministry of Defence, and when, following an answer given on 21 September.
Luke Pollard, the Minister of State for Defence, said: “His Majesty’s Treasury have taken on responsibility for the cost of further support for ongoing international objectives, including Ukraine Security Guarantees in case of a ceasefire, and unlocking additional savings from improved procurement.
“These risks were transferred at the point the Defence Investment Plan was finalised.”
Transfers of this kind happen inside Whitehall and change what the armed forces can plan around. A department holding a risk has to carry provision for it inside its own settlement, and that provision sits against everything else the budget is meant to deliver. Moving the risk to the Treasury removes that claim on the defence budget and places it on the reserve.
Britain and its European partners have been working on what a reassurance force would look like after a ceasefire, with the coalition of the willing having examined options including a ground presence, air policing and maritime security in the Black Sea.
‘His Majesty’s Treasury have taken on responsibility for the cost of further support for ongoing international objectives, including Ukraine Security Guarantees in case of a ceasefire’
A big commitment…not really…
Any ceasefire in the near future is highly unlikely.
Any negotiations regarding such a ceasefire will rule out NATO security forces positioned within Ukraine.
Who knows what the cease fire would look like. Right now both sides think they can win/survive. Something will have to change to get them both around the table. Likely a coup in Russia would be needed, as I can’t see Russia suddenly becoming more successful in it’s offensive operations to reach the objectives that Putin wants to be able to announce it as a victory.
Actually I would say it’s a big risk removed, because the MOD would have to plan its budgets on the assumption it covers that risk.. if someone dumps a risk on you, then you have to have the plan in place to manage and fund the management of that risk.