Are Russian cargo ships operating drones in Europe?

A Russian-crewed cargo ship, HAV DOLPHIN, has attracted some attention after its movements coincided with drone incursions over German military installations, according to a cross-border investigation by Follow the Money, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, VRT, De Tijd, and Pointer.

The vessel, flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda but managed by the Norwegian company HAV, entered the Baltic Sea via the Kiel Canal on 24 August, after calling at Antwerp and declaring its destination as Vaasa, Finland.

Open-source researcher @auonsson drew renewed attention to the ship’s course, pointing to its suspected links with earlier drone-related incidents in northwest Germany.

Suspected drone carrier / cargo ship HAV DOLPHIN entered Baltic Sea via Kiel kanal, last port Antwerp. Stated destination Vasa, FI

The Russian crewed ship is suspected if being behind drone flights over military installations in NW Germany a few months ago. pic.twitter.com/i4QfsyLyzi

— auonsson (@auonsson) August 24, 2025

The investigation detailed how HAV DOLPHIN spent almost a month in Kaliningrad beginning on 10 April 2025, officially for maintenance. Kaliningrad is a hub of Russian naval and intelligence activity and a regular base for spy ships and auxiliaries tied to Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet.” After departing for the Latvian port of Liepāja, the ship’s AIS signal disappeared. When it reappeared, the vessel was 26 nautical miles from its previous reported position, a red flag for maritime trackers. On the same day, GPS disruptions were recorded in the region, something that has been associated with Russian jamming operations.

Five days later the ship lingered in the Kiel Bight longer than expected. Analysts note that unexplained loitering has become a common feature of Russian-crewed ships suspected of intelligence work. In May, Dutch, German, and Belgian authorities boarded the HAV DOLPHIN and another Russian-crewed vessel, LAUGA, searching for drones. Neither inspection uncovered physical evidence, but European officials told Follow the Money that both ships remain under surveillance due to concerns about Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy.

The scrutiny comes amid a surge in drone sightings above German military sites. A map shared by @auonsson showed 257 drone incursions in the first quarter of 2025 alone, with concentrations in Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony, Hamburg, and North Rhine-Westphalia. In one case, two days after the HAV DOLPHIN was inspected near Rotterdam, the LAUGA was linked to a swarm of drones tracked by German naval patrol vessels. While no drones have been directly tied to the ships, investigators argue the timing and location of vessel activity and drone flights raise serious questions.

As Follow the Money put it: “European authorities suspect Russia of using drones to spy on and intimidate, but catching them in the act proves difficult. Suspicious ship behaviour can also have other causes, making definitive proof hard to establish.”

Related, map of drone incursions in Germany for only the first quarter 2025. 257 (sic) incidents. pic.twitter.com/Y8lSpZyLRJ

— auonsson (@auonsson) August 24, 2025

The wider concern is that vessels like HAV DOLPHIN represent a grey-zone challenge: legally commercial, but potentially operating with intelligence or sabotage missions.

I went onboard a Swedish warship patrolling the Baltic Sea

Earlier this year, UK Defence Journal joined NATO forces aboard the Swedish Navy ship Carlskrona as part of Operation Baltic Sentry, a patrol mission aimed at deterring such threats. Officers described the task as a constant process of filtering traffic: “We are constantly scanning for deviations. If something looks out of place, we investigate and report it if necessary.”

Commodore Arjen Warnaar, Commander of NATO’s Standing Naval Group 1, was frank about the ambiguity of the situation when talking to me onboard earlier this year: “All the ships that have been involved and have been dragging their anchors for miles and miles around the Baltic started from a Russian port or were going to a Russian port. Now that seems strange, but if you ask me who done it, I don’t know. I can tell you that, because I’m not sure.”

For NATO, the solution has been constant visibility. Warnaar compared it to police patrolling a neighbourhood after a wave of break-ins: “What usually happens? The number of break-ins reduces. That’s more or less what we’re doing, too. If anything happens, we react. And what we hope for is that that will reduce the number of incidents.”

At sea with Operation Baltic Sentry – A report from onboard

With Sweden and Finland now NATO members, surveillance in the Baltic is reinforced by a broader network of assets spanning surface, subsurface, air, cyber, and space domains. Warnaar confirmed that unmanned systems are already part of NATO’s toolkit: “What I can tell you is that they’re already using unmanned systems today.”

The HAV DOLPHIN case highlights the difficulty of proving intent at sea. Suspicious loitering, AIS obfuscation, and long port calls in Kaliningrad are circumstantial, but together they form a mounting dossier that European security services say cannot be ignored.