Argentina has officially signed an agreement to acquire four P-3 aircraft from Norway.
The signing event, attended by key officials from both Argentina and Norway, saw the presence of Argentinaās Minister of Defence, Minister Jorge Taiana, and Juan Mercatelli, Commander of Naval Aviation and Rear Admiral of the Navy.
On the Norwegian side, Magnus Hansvold, Director of the Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency (NDMA), and Halvor SƦtre, the Norwegian Ambassador to Argentina, were present.
“These planes have a particular observation capacity and also have great autonomy which allows them to fly for many hours, being very useful for the surveillance and control of our territorial sea and especially our exclusive economic zone. They will also be very important for the search and rescue system,” stated Argentinaās Minister of Defence on the Presidente Sarmiento Frigate.
An official release added:
“The acquisition of these aircraft will allow us to recover long-range exploration capacity in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and have a greater presence in the maritime areas of interest and the Argentine Antarctic, especially with regard to the control of living resources and non-living and maritime lines of communication.Ā
Furthermore, these aircraft, thanks to their characteristics and performance, are essential to fulfill the functions of searching and safeguarding human life at sea (SAR), a responsibility that the Argentine Republic assigns to the Navy.”
Why are our allies supplying Argentina with the petroleum to ignite yet another trouble spot?
How many simmering trouble spots can the West cope with?
These feels like the miscalculations prior to ā82 all over again – T42 and Sea Dart – the knew how useless Blow Pipe and a great many other systems were as we sold them some units. Old Neptune (?) used to track the task forceā¦..
This and the F16ās have massive nuisance value as they will tie up more of our slender resources. Exactly what Vlad and Xi would love.
Hi SB… I was thinking the very same thing.
The P3s entered Norwegian service before the Falklands war, the F16s not long after.
This is much better than Chinese equivalents. We know everything about the F16, all itās capabilities and weapons systems. British Typhoons have trained against F16s in the aggressor role. The same cannot be said for Chinese equivalents.
Agree, the war was a long time ago and Argentina needs to get something. Better old US tech than new Chinese stuff that they can acquire in numbers.
Argentina trying to invade the Falklands with two squadrons of F16 and 4 P3 is just the kind of small training exercise the Queen Elizabeth strike group could use right now.
There’s no real chance of an invasion but harassing ships in the Falklands EEZ is a near certainty.
Agreed. In 1982 Argentina didn’t seriously think Britain would attempt to retake the islands. Now they know we will.
Argentina has no capacity to launch an attack on the islands. They have no fighter aircraft, no submarines and their surface vessels are 30 years old or older.
However, Argentina can harass vessels engaged in oil exploration and, as they acquire more modern systems (like F-16s), they can increase the cost to Britain of defending the islands.
They will undoubtedly hope that increasing costs and a lot of “colonialist oppression” rhetoric will lead a future Labour Government to start negotiations. … and who would bet against that?
None of this requires an increase in our defences on the Falklands. The balance of power isn’t really changing; the current garrison size has remained more or less unchanged for decades despite the continuous degradation of Argentine forces.
More or importantly, Argentina isn’t a military dictatorship anymore. They might still speak like they’ll invade the islands, but they know they can’t and are aware they’ll have better chances appealing to woke muppets than tangling with Typhoons and an entrenched garrison
I think a moment of truth will come if – next year – oil production begins. That may activate Argentina and possible harassment by naval vessels. That would then likely require a UK presence beyond HMS Forth.
In Red Flag exercise this year a typhoon squadron leader was surprised and shot down by an F16 aggressor aircraft. So these aircraft are a threat.
Whether the Argentine airforce will be able to handle their new F16s to maximise their advantages I don’t know, probably not for a while.
Training against aggressor aircraft at Red flag will put aircraft like Typhoon and F22 into very unusual circumstances like close in fights to give the adversary a chance. In reality a Typhoon would sit at maximum altitude and speed against an F16 and lob meteor missiles. However not much point in training that at Red flag.
That’s exactly what they train to do. Sit at 45:000 feet ahead of the strike package. Maximum radar range, and put maximum energy into BVR missiles. Any aircraft can be shot down if the pilot doesn’t have great situational awareness or simply makes an error. Regardless of what aircraft type they are flying. š
Well back in 82 you’ve got give it to the Argentine pilots did well flying Skyhawks and Mirage Fighters , so in an F16 š¤
That, and a Argentina that is friendly to the West is MUCH better than a Argentina that is a Chinese dependency.
Unfortunately the whole of South America is in chinas pocket, this is a nothing action really, if it was some part of a seriously put together geo strategic move to remove the influence of china from South America I would applaud itā¦as is, china is the single biggest trade partner with South America,to the to tune of 400billion dollars a yearā¦has been increasing its trade by around 30% a year most years and by the mid 2035s will be trading 700billion dollars a yearā¦they have also signed geopolitical partnership agreements with all the major regional powers in South America as well as lent out around 180billion dollars in infrastructure investment moneyā¦16 second hand f16s and 3 P3s is as nothing and is meaningless to increasing western influence in Argentina..when played against the very serious geo strategy and mercantile strategy employed by Chinaā¦.what it does do is give Argentina the ability to probe the SAOTā¦.and using western tec not chinaās tec..which is a win win for them as they get information while doing nothing.
So I would have said this was worth the difficulty it will give the UK in the SAOT if it had been linked with a massive geostrategic play backed by a few hundred billion dollarsā¦.as is itās crappy
Hmm. So any issue will grow *much* more slowly.
That forecast says that China – South America trade growth will be 5% per annum between now and 2035, down from the “30% in some years” it was up to now.
The calculation is that 1.05 is the eleventh root of 700/400, so 5% growth will get to approx 700 billion.
I’m less sanguine about influence via access to fishing waters, by corruption to top politicians etc.
Chinese trade with the EU + UK + EFTA, for example, is something over 1 trillion Euro a year (~10% of that is the UK), and it has not destroyed our security.
China has, however, been able to buy influence in some ways. Especially from politicians.
I’d be concerned about Ireland and the China Far Waters fishing fleet, because the active Irish navy is roughly two pedalos and a rubber duck – the rubber duck normally sailing on a sea of Matey bubbles in the Taoiseach‘s bathtub.
i would debate there is an impact of the European trade with china on the security of European..I think actually the UK and EU has let china get away with a hell of a lot because of that volume of trade and dependenceā¦itās been a well know secret that china has been paying for and manipulating political leaders the west..maybe not directly but via pressure groups and think tanks..the whole 5G debacle as well as Hinckley point are Classic and only the tip of the iceberg..china has been running a full scale mercantilist geostrategic policy against the west..from securing market share, using anticompetitive strategies to undermine western strategic industries, state sponsored industrial and scientific espionage and using any means it can to secure raw materials all to help cement mercantile dominance.
This has been blunted by the wealth and political structures of the west but itās still had an impact..against the fragile democracies of the second world and their need for finance Chinese influence is far greater ( just look at how Britain created its empireā¦it used mercantile strategies against weak ( politically and economically) states to subsume them into it hegemony, the economically more fragile economies ( of which most of the South American economies are) are alway susceptible to Mercantilism.
As for the republic and is navy, luckily for the UK any illegal fishing in Irish EEZ waters is the EUs problem.
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True but this same argument was used to arm Argentina before the Falklands war… the only difference it was the Russian influence that was being used as the excuse. Will these planes get US weapons? Rearming Argentina can cause nothing but trouble fir the Falklands and the UK.
It’ll be years before Argentina is able to pose a risk to the Falklands, even then I honestly believe the argies would prefer a bad guy to blame and winge about than actually doing anything. They know they would have their arses handed to them on a plate if they tried to do anything for at least the next 20 years. If they start ramping up so will we. There’s no requirement for a Black Buck anymore we can sit a sub hundreds of miles off their coast and take out what we want.
An F35 or a Typhoon is several orders of magnitude more effective than these F16’s they are acquiring and that would be even more the case in ten years when half of them are non effective due to parts and maintenance issues and with pilots who cant get their hours in due to a lack of cash due to the multiple inevitable economic crises they will go through
The issue isnāt the threat it is the probing they can do with the combined assets.
4 No Typhoons scrambled regularlyā¦.maintenance intervalsā¦..at what point isnāt there one to put up? That is just statistics with a small fleet.
Able to sit with the P3 and look seeā¦..
Able to give their Chinese mates a close look at F16 & P3ā¦..OK probably old versions with upgrades strippedā¦..even so not great.
I agree with the use of assets and all that but I prefer to look at it as damn good training for our pilots and crews. Its a relatively benign enemy at the moment and for the foreseeable future but something we should keep an eye on.
Honestly I will only have genuine fear for the Falklands if Argentine sorts out their economy
Last time was to distract from their basket case economy!
agreed SB, but last time they had a functioning military
They have one of the largest untapped reserves of Lithium. That could sort out their economy and more. We need to sort out our economy and who’s future it is in the UK.
2 Typhoons hold QRA. And they fly most days, weather permitting. They are designed to fly a lot. They would fly even more hours if they were UK based. QRA flights are usually pretty easy on the jet’s. They are not pulling 9g on QRA launches.
re F16 and P3, both of these in Pakistan inventory, so PRC may well have access to all the info anyway?
Oh I think we can say Pakistan has definitely
‘paid it forward’ there!
Pakistan allegedly lent China an F16 for flight testing and study, probably based at Chengdu, the J-17 most certainly benefitted from those studies.
And probably will give the Chinese a look see at their CAMM-ER too. And doesnt the Navy have the Phalanx’s too?
I do wonder about exporting things like CAMMā¦..to everyoneā¦ā¦although I suspect the version they get is a few paces behind current.
That is a significant ITAR breach in itself.
Indeed it is, JF-17 has a rather clear F16 design influence, I think J ‘F17’ is very much a Chinese tongue in cheek piss take!
The rumours of the Chinese test flying an F16 in the early 2000’s were certainly persistent and with a sharp fall off in Pakistan / US relations post 9/11, plus close and increasing military industrial ties with China, point at a rather clear F16 provider!
It was Pakistan that came up with the designation JF-17 to show it to be a sequential step on from the F-16 they already operated. In China the type is designated the FC-1 Xiaolong. The design of the FC-1/JF-17 is derived from the defunct Grumman Super-7 project and a design study by RSK MiG commissioned by China and paid for by Pakistan. The FC-1/JF-17 project was instigated by Pakistan looking for a fighter that would be Western sanctions proof and have a BVR capability something they lacked at the time.
The head of the Pakistan Airforce himself gave the reason for the JF-17 which as I said to show it to be a sequential step on from the F-16. It was a designation chosen by Pakistan for their own reasons retaining the J as a nod to the Chinese input to the programme. Your timing is waaay off for the Super 7 as well, that development programme was in the 80s and ended with the Tiananmen square massacre and following sanctions imposed by the West. Arguably the Super 7 was starting to stall as a programme already when Grumman pulled out. The PLAAF had been allowed to test fly the Dassault Mirage 2000 which they found to be a quantum leap in capability over what the Super 7 could offer or any Chinese jet for that matter. The programme meandered on for a while but the 1991 Gulf war was the final nail in the coffin for the programme. The PLAAF were horrified at the ability of Coalition aircraft to destroy the Iraqi airforce. The Iraqi airforce fleet was as good and even marginally superior to what China fielded at the time. The Super 7 was simply not good enough on paper to make continuation of the programme worthwhile. To that end China went cash strapped Russia and purchased SU-27 in large numbers to make up the technology and capability gap. They also rebase lined together some other single engine fighter projects the J-9, J10 and J-13 they had been working on in the 80s into one the J-10 and brought in discrete Israeli and Russian help to develop a credible but affordable F-16 alternative. The J-10 alongside the J-11 (the Chinese designation for the SU-27) form the backbone of the PLAAF now.
What do they tell you in the Forces about an unthinking moment?
I’m not saying we don’t keep up basic intelligence practices and monitoring I’m just saying that the equipment the Argentinian government is receiving ,while better than it has, isn’t a risk to the Falklands
Itās funny, all the argentines I know never mention the islands, itās like the Shetlands or the Pharos islands to them.
I think they only people that actually care are in the UK and the Islanders themselves. Argentine politicians put the odd bard in to try and build a bit of nationalism. However most educated Argentines look at their own country as a cruel joke and all they want to do is get out and move to anywhere like Britain. I dare say at some point soonish someone going to figure out crossing from Argentina to the FI is an easy way to get UK asylum and that will be our big problem.
Not a handful of clapped out propeller planes.
I remember crossing the border from Brazil to Argentina, maybe 12 13 years ago on a coach, as you crossed over there was a huge billboard proclaiming that to the Malvinas belonged to Argentina facing you.
Government propaganda, how many people in the uk care about Shetland.
Is it a case that most of the Argentines you know do not actually live in Argentina? maybe that’s why they never talk about it.
The QE class carriers have an estimated 50 year service life. So I’d say unless Argentina are supported by a PLAN carrier group the Falklands are safely British until at least 2050.
If the west allows Argentina and these other despot countries to hook up with the PRC, it’s a real possibility.
Frankly I suspect the British had they known what Argentina was going to do and invade the Falklands they would not have sold the stuff they did to Argentina
Britain has a long tradition of selling guns to the country it goes to war with. We were criticised too much for invading countries without guns so we decided to arm them to make it fair. š
Argentina poses zero risk to the falklands and they know it… an Astute, the typhoons already on the island and soon carriers with plenty of f-35s to make short work of F-16s- not to mention what a couple type-45s could do, thats a totally different scenario than ’82- and after suffering such a disastrous defeat back then- why try it when the odds are exponentially more stacked against them? The P-3s are a complete non-factor as far as I’m concerned. They simply won’t have the resources to be using it to hunt for an Astute for instance, I doubt they’ll even get the sonar gear. They need planes for fishery patrol (they’ve got a problem with China there) and these are a cheap way to go. The argentinian people are fed up with their government spending as it is, the last thing they care about is the Falklands.
Strategically China getting its hands into South America would be a much bigger disaster- not just for US interest but for western interests in general. We’ve seen how they’ve gained so much influence in Africa. Once they get ahold in one country and start ‘spreading the wealth’ the neighbors think ‘why not?’. I could even seen them gifting Argentina much more modern military equipment in exchange for an infrastructure project and the like- and once they get influence perhaps they could talk Argentina into doing something stupid for more favors- it would benefit China immensely to have a puppet that would start trouble in the south atlantic just as they want to pull off Taiwan for instance…
You misunderstand my point.
I am not suggesting Argentina invades again. With the carriers and T45 + Astute that is now impossible.
But they can be a right nuisance and gain a lot of data for other actors.
The Argentine Navy operated the P3 until 2019 so anything China wanted, they have already got. By 2025 any country that will potentially fight China will have retired P3 (Canada, Australia, US).
The US is the main operator of the F16 and clearly see no issue with China having a look around. The aircraft has been in service for decades so the Chinese know everything about it anyway. The jets Argentina are receiving are nowhere near as updated as those in USAF inventory anyway.
Agreed, we sometimes expect opponents to act in a certain way and shocked when they dont and act creatively with much less resources. Why would they go toe to toe with a T45 etc? They have geography and numbers on their side, thatās a big advantage. Itās not about trying to deploy a massive littoral strike to take it, all they have to do is simply beat our forces that is there, and itās a small garrison to beat with no real armour. A swarm of small boats with enough people would cause chaos, fishing boats disguised as a protest against the nasty British could cause enough doubt to not be fired upon, once ashore on motorbikes they could cause mayhem and sabotage to then allow a bigger littoral invasion, enough motivated men armed with decent weoponry could take it, why would an astute worry them once ashore? The trick is to keep the islands but decking the captured islands with anti ship and anti air missiles, and fast boats, good ones, would be enough to deter our tiny fleet to try and take it back. I know itās laughable but itās not impossible. Now, what day is it and who are all these people in my houseā¦
Your right the Falklands island’s patrol ship couldn’t really put up much of a fight,then keep 4Typhoons Occupied get through the Sky Sabre Batteries it is Absolutely possible there would be able to over run us all be it with the resources and small garrison would undoubtedly put up a good fight .But the Argentine well know that RN submarines could stay well away from the main land and hit there airfields military bases etc so it would be Madness on there part .But still you do have a point .š¬š§
You should really stop snorting those wasps, it’s not helping you to think.
Iāll try some bees, with a hover fly chaser
Once ashore on motorbikes….
Hmm. Are they disguised as nuns?
Good idea, that would add to the distraction, whoās going to fire on nuns on motorbikes. The Argy special ops teams could be dressed as priests commanded by someone dresses as the pope. Our lads would just surrender.
We don’t need armoured vehicles on the Falklands, although CVR(T)s were useful in 1982, but the situation was different then.
Our garrison is small but effective as both a deterrent and an initial response force to an invasion. Hopefully we get enough notice of an invasion and can reinforce the small garrison by air-lifting additional troops from the UK and other assets.
My bad, I did misunderstand. I was more alluding to why the US would want Argentina to use their kit from a geo-political standpoint. but I see I you mean about nato equipment possibly getting looked over from the Chinese. But I think once the decision was made to give F-16s to Ukraine that point is pretty moot as inevitably they’ll get to look over a downed one at some point. These look like the same block of F-16 that Ukraine is getting so won’t have too much in common with the upgraded F-16s still operated by NATO countries.
Hopefully all the anti-sub gear is removed from the P-3, I imagine it would be as it seems they’re just using it for anti-fishery and search and rescue. That would be a mistake even though its outdated, I imagine china would love to get their hands on things like sonobouys and the like- but I’d be shocked if anything related to anti-sub doesn’t get torn out.
Yep that’s right and enjoy doing so. š
The flip side of that coin is the RAF regularly sending an Atlas aircraft on a training and navigation run to Terra del Fuego or similar just to expedite the fatigue on those F16 airframes.
Even if they had all these assets available next week they would find taking the Islands again an impossible challenge. They lack the ability to get enough troops to the island to take it and the UK now has enough tankers to get aircraft to the Falklands quickly should it seem like they are needed.
There’s also the tiny factor that the people aren’t trained yet to use the new kit and won’t be for a while. Just look at how long it took to get Carrier capability back for the UK.
The UK will have enough eys on any Argentine military outpost where a build-up will take place to have ample time to respond.
You can inave somewhere once but that place will after that be on guard and we know the attack routes and likely scenarios.
Maybe
But Iām not suggesting they will invade with them.
They will probe and deduce useful intel for their paymasters: the union of Pariah Regimes.
I have said it before on here on similar topics. There are many on here who speak of our much vaunted technology and super forces. In 1982 the key to sinking our surface ships was one Neptune aircraft. Obsolete at the time by any standards . Long since replaced in US service by the P3. There is a Neptune in the museum at Cosford. Visitors pass it by without a second glance. This not something to ignore glibly.
If the Royal Navy were asked to Mount Operation Journeyman toady I seriously doubt they could. Far less a Task force.
I had to read up on Op Journeyman – very interesting. Surely our navy could deploy two frigates, a sub and 2 x RFAs to ward off a potential invasion by Argentina?
We were tied up in Antwerp on a port visit. Then we left early. Once in clear water we went to 27 knots. Rumour was rife. One or two guessed correctly. With everyone having 4 or 5 ideas there was probably 1000 options bouncing around the ship. 27 knots on a Leander for an hour is okay. Antwerp to Guz is not fun.
Within a week of leaving Antwerp we were on our way south. After clearing Biscay and feeling all alone the crew were briefed, The radar was switched of and we left the shipping lanes. Within days we met the other ships.
Even then we were two of a handful of ships that were available and capable of the trip at such short notice. The navy now are using river class patrol boats on Blue Water tasks. The fleet is just not big enough.
Thanks mate. Op Journeyman seems to have been a success. Pity it was not repeated in 81 or early 82, then the Argentinians would probably not have invaded.
Fully agree that our navy is not big enough for its bluewater (Global Britain) tasks.
I am no naval expert but I would have thought we should have:
-one more carrier and/or LPH
-another 6 x T45s as the requirement was for 12
-at least another 5 frigates, to have min of 16
-at least another 5 attack subs, some of which could be SSKs
The Argentinians are responsible for the search and rescue operations in a large chunk of ocean and need the resources to do it. They also need to be able to monitor illegal fishing by Chinese trawlers in the South Atlantic. The alternative to buying second hand NATO kit would be to buy from the Chinese, which would have several adverse effects.
Whilst I agree with that, on the face of it, rational argument the opportunity for mischief is still quite high.
I agree..this is going to be very troublesome for the RAF. You can guarantee that the Argentinian government is going to use these to bother and test the UKs airspace and response in the SAOT. There is a potential that the RAF will need to increase the tempo of its operations in the south Atlantic.
personally I donāt think this move will prevent the Argentinian government getting closer to china as most of the South Americans nations are already buried into the Chinese circle of influence..with growth rates in South America China trade being 450billionā¦and a growth rate of around 30% a year over that last decadeā¦estimated to hit 700billion dollars by 2035..China is South Americas biggest trade partner..china has loaned South American nations something around 137billion dollars..china has comprehensive strategic partnerships with all the major regional powers..Argentina, Brazil, Chile etcā¦handing over western aircraft to Argentina is not changing it geopolitical trajectoryā¦itās just making it harder for the UK and will suck UK treasure away from supporting its allies in places like the northern flank, Eastern Europe, and china seasā¦quite frankly a geopolitical own goal from the U.S..
Although I could deploy my usual argument about leaving vacuums for other to fill!
Realistically we need more military kit urgently now.
If China is down there then we need three P8ās out of Stanley. Reason enough to add to the fleet.
You say we need more military kit because Argentina is acquiring three aged P3s? More kit to FI? Three of our scarce P8s to Stanley, or do you mean MPA? I doubt that will happen.
We surely have other ways to determine if Argentina is readying a task force for invasion.
The P8ās are to keep an eye on China not Argentina.
More resources are tied up by people aggressively playing games: as we are seeing in Israel.
Light another fire etc.
There are elements in Argentinian politics who would love to stir the pit at the behest of others.
Why?
It makes them feel important rather than impotent.
I will they invade: no.
Will they be a PIA: yes.
Thanks for the clarification.
Argentina has waited too long. I’m pretty sure with a well thought out plan with special forces operations Argentina could take the islands even today. The issue is we now have carriers back and most of the fleet is upgraded with CAMM. The ground forces are battle tested in recent years. Argentina wouldn’t be able to hold them.
I dont understand it. UK has been our most trusted and best ally all the time since WWII. I served in our brigade in the north for som years. Your forces came every winter and took part in the NATO exercise with your big ships, your Jaguars and Phantoms and your f****g Royal Marines who gave us hell -ALWAYS. ;-D
It’s not a US sale, its a Denmark F-16 sale with US approval.
Hey. It’s because China is offering brand new fighter jets, with unknown Chinese weapons and systems, to Argentina. If they win, China’s deal will likely include new sea ports and airfields, and neither the UK nor the US want PLAN and PLAFF to enjoy closer range.
China has not forgotten the atrocities of the East India Trading Company, I assure you. It’s in our interest to make friends with Argentina.
The F-16s will be Block 15 to start, but will likely upgrade to Block 50+ in the future. Very good for typical defense, but completely defeatable by the UK if need be. It’s a small risk.
The Argentine government know they cannot win against the British again and if they were insane to try they would lose and then I think the British would not be so kind on the post war demands the 2nd time around
The Americans would be in trouble as the British let the US arm Argentina decades ago and look what happened, if it were to happen again in the unlikely event, the British will probably harden their stance on any military sales to Argentina as the British government would have more proof that Argentina could not be trusted but also that we should trust the United States less because they would be seen by some in the UK as betraying their oldest ally again
Since when did the US need the UK’s permission to arm Argentina? And there are many in the US who would argue that the US turned out to be the real loser in the Falklands War.
The United States Has Never Recovered From the Falklands War (foreignpolicy.com)
By the way, it was the Israelis who sold military equipment to Argentina during the Falklands War.
Israel sold weapons to Argentina at height of Falklands War, reveal declassified Foreign Office files (telegraph.co.uk)
Plenty of people on here are adamant that the Argentinians couldn’t invade & keep the Falklands, maybe, maybe not, but they tried it in 82 when our armed forces were far more numerous than now, although I doubt they’d try again I wouldn’t consider it impossible at all that they might fancy their chances.
I donāt think they would or could.
Other than using ferries they donāt have the transport.
No navy to speak of.
No army systems etc that are not 40 years old.
24 early block 2nd hand F-16s and some P3s that they already have isn’t changing anything, our navy may have less hulls than in 82′ but we can carry significantly more missiles and aircraft that are unbelievably more powerful than anything we had in the 1980s on what we have now.
There is no foreseeable way Argentina challenge sovereignty militarily within the next quarter of a century minimum. If they do start a sudden build up and enact a hostile foreign policy again we will move to counter it, our armed forces aren’t rigid and we still have some numbers to throw around – despite the gloom and doom we all love to get from here.
Yes. The F-16s are also 40 years old.
No chance, the Argentinian armed forces of 1982 was probably the second most capable after the US in the Americas.
Large, relitivly well equipped and with mass…
Today it’s not even a vague shadow of what it once was…
A very limited SF landing, blow shit up and run away type op, possibly, but why would they, what would it possibly achieve????
Absolutely šÆ
DeeBee, yes the UK military was far bigger in 1982, but it was all sat in Germany waiting for the 3rd Guards Shock army to cross from the DDR or they were patrolling the North Atlantic monitoring the Russian Northern Fleet. The FI garrison consisted on a Royal Marines Landing party. Basically less than a hundred Marines and Sailors. No aircraft and no air defence, and nothing above 66 mm ammunition.
Today we have aircraft, air defence and radar. They would be spotted leaving the main land.
Technically the largest weapon was a Carl Gustav 84mm ATGW. But the marines only had two of those and very few rounds to fire off.
Indeed. And with JSSU (FI) on station, their invasion and build up had better be pretty silent.
We got wind of it in 82, the politicians hesitated. This time our dwtection assets are far greater.
Assume an Intelligence agreement with Chile still exists?
I agree with SB and J though on the nuisance value of the F16s and P3s that may commit our assets more often.
Agree could be a hybrid surprise attack, preceded by spoiling operations and dragging and pulling the UK armed forces off guard in multiple locations. I think small fishing boats, trawlers etc could deliver small numbers of troops ashore, run up the Argentine flag and cause a commotion.
But we are far more capable now. One Astute boat with TLAM could hit any target on the islands or the mainland with pin point accuracy.
The Argentine Navy is a floating bucket of rust. What they do have that is operational wouldn’t threaten a row boat let alone escort and conduct an invasion.
So the F-16s being sold to Argentina were bought by Denmark in 80-84 and early 90s. Link
No issues from me, every nation has a right to defend itself, and more importantly, these P3s can have amore useful effect in maritime surveillance and assisting in maritime rescues etc, a capability found wanting for the Argentinians when their sub sank. Do the Argies pose a a threat to the FI, no not for years yet, if ever. Should we try to get closer ties to the Argies, in order to make an attempt at pushing out possible Chinese influence, deffo for sure we should. Lets talks, trade but remain wielding a decent sized stick!
A lot of people believe and thereās some evidence pointing to the ARA San Juan being lost after returning from a covert surveillance mission. Argentina has conducted covert missions on the FI since ā82. Often dropping off a detachment of AgrupaciĆ³n de Buzos TĆ”cticos, APBT. Remains to be seen what would happen if the RIC came across them whilst out on patrol?
Is that right?? I’ve never heard of this, blimey.
Sadly yes, every now and then items are found. From good wrappings to a dingy.
Thanks. This is news to me. Do you know where, or is that sensitive? The RIC cannot come close to covering even East Falkland. Assumed it was more for static guarding of MPC, Mere Cove, Remote Site, and a few other places than as a deployable reaction force.
Hi Dan, some items were found by the Islanders on both West and East Falkland over the years. The RIC is not static, thatāll be the Rocks that are down there, who are tasked with security in and around the airfield.
I wouldnāt be surprised if this was a right of passage for the Buzos TĆ”cticos.
Right, thanks.
Good Lord š
Prob right about a right of passage for new Buzos, but now they are using Albanian people smugglers contracted from Calais, and there are now 18000 Buzos and 144 small boats in and around San Carlos!!!!!! š
Re reading and correcting my post, it is of course Mare Harbour, East Cove, not Mere Cove!
š¤ Sec that
Iād expect the Argie subs would on occasion do some covert recce etc of the FI and itās waters, but not sure how often dropping off the Buzos mate, Iām sure as you say itās been done, but quite risky depending on what their mission was, š
So we have to raise our game on the Falklands, great training opportunity and stops Chinese influence extending for a minute or two.
It also gives America via spare parts over what Argentina allows wrt Chinese fishing fleets… Should Argentina be able to monitor their waters more effectively and be less in hoc to the Chinese, all the better.
Good point David,
The Chinese are literally hoovering the world’s ocean’s of fish
60% of the illegally caught fish worldwide are done by their large fishing fleets
as most countries can not monitor their EEZ’s especially small Pacific nations with massive areas to cover with no resources
The Argentinians need to monitor their seas
The UK were recently in the same boat!
Nimrods were retired, replacements scrapped, post cold war dividend and then after a decade the Russian subs were sniffing off NW Scotland and the approaches to the Clyde
I think we had to embarrassingly request NATO or French ASW planes to help for a time
HMS Trent
Absolutely getting rid of our MPA was crazy ,David Cameron and George Osborne were lethal š
I agree that the Chinese fishing fleet in Argentine waters – and overstepping into Falklands’ waters – are a concern.
Institutional corruption is also a risk, which as we know is a major problem in Argentina.
Can I take your institutional corruption and raise you PPE?
Bought from… China.
And.
I believe China created COVID, they suffered from it just as Russia killed most of their WW2 casualties launching attacks without weapons…
Nothing special for that species of humans.
For Argentina a lot will depend on who wins the election tomorrow. Milei said he will respect the views of the islanders, he’s ahead in the poles and as far as the Falklands goes the best choice. The other candidates we can expect more of the same.
Argentina is and will remain one election away from military intervention. Many South American governments remain potentially volatile.
What Argentina has been doing over the last few decades is to gain support for its claims on the Falklands with numerous other countryās now supporting its position. Some of those supporters have significant military capabilities such as Brazil.
If Argentina should choose to militarily intervene they will not be on their own this time around and I fear the UK continues to believe both politically and militarily that this is a solo nation issue, that is no longer the case. Potentially Argentina could have the military support of a number of other nations, especially with Chinese financial encouragement.
Where as the UK politically remains isolated in regards to the Falklands with zero potential international support for its position. I would expect no other country to lend military support in a future intervention.
I would expect to see a political solution in the future as UK governments realize their position becomes more unattainable.
It seems likely over the next 10-20 years that it will be necessary to expand NATO’s influence into the southern hemisphere or set up a similar organisation. In theory this would provide cover for many democracies throughout the world. Would this not cover the Falklands and put this problem to bed permanantly.
There are always going to be a couple of problem countries however they know perfectly well there is a limit to how much they can protest. If they push things too far they know full well they could end up outside a global alliance which they would not want. I think Spain is more interested in it’s military alliances than a little bit of politicing around to gain a few extra votes come election time.
Fear not. Argentina is on the verge of collapse, again. A cunning plan would be to declare war on the U.K. and then surrender making us Brits liable for their debt mountain.
Google ‘Argentina election: Javier Milei, TikTok economist, leads polls’
All be be revealed.
‘will’ be …
Hilarious, declare war and then surrender. Excellent, you’d think the Argentinians were descended from the French. Opppssss shouldn’t have said that, it just slipped out.ļ»æšļ»æ
He didn’t lose either. I can read.
‘leads polls’ was taken from the Argentine Press reports leading up to the election. He still hasn’t lost.
Personally, I don’t give a fig for whomever tries to govern Argentina. It’s basket case that cannot threaten anyone. Nuisance yes; threat no.
It is unlikely the Argentinians will be able to afford to fly the F-16’s with any regularity. If this is a credible threat to the UK, the RAF needs to do some soul searching because they’ve eff’d up.
No point in the UK wasting political capital trying to block the sale of these and the F-16’s. Given the size of Argentina, they are hardly an excessive purchase for self defence, almost no one is likely to agree (obviously including the USA as they approved the sales) that they are a serious threat to regional stability.
The Westminster lot will give it all away if it suits them.
Why do we sell those old aircraft at all? Put one or two on museums and keep two flying. Norway has a lot of ocean to patrol and could probably make good use of them for many years flying nonmilitary missions.
Usa has allowed these people sold to Argentina to help prevent Argentina falling further under chinese influence with Chinese aircraft purchases. So its essentially good deal for uk . What is embarrassing for uk is that Argentina may have more working long range surveillance planes than RAF
I doubt it given Argentinas last P3s left service due to poor maintenance and lack of spare parts after being in service for just 22 years. Norways P3s have been in service for 40+ years.
Argentina is not going to invade the Falklands anymore; that was a big mistake made by the junta on that years. The new gov will respect islanders self-determination to live as they always have been.q
Weāre gonna have to reinstate the Vulcan bomber wing
Yep and Victor from the Yorkshire air museum š¤ š¬š§
Its amazing to compare how much fuel the Victor carried, to today’s A330 MRTT Voyager aircraft. The K2 Victor carried some 91,000lbs (41,000kgs), whereas the Voyager carries 245,000lbs (111,000kgs). But bear in mind, this is just the Voyager’s internal fuel. The Voyager can be fitted with additional fuel tanks. The aircraft can carry an additional 45,000kgs of cargo. Which I presume could also be additional fuel. So in essence one Voyager can carry nearly 4 Victor aircrafts worth of fuel.
For the Black Buck missions, they needed 11 Victors to tank one Vulcan to make sure it reached the FI. With the same number on the return. Today, you would need 3 Voyagers for the outbound, then another 3 for the return leg. The Vulcan’s four Olympus turbojets were very thirsty.
Is that from uk or the ascension Islands
Davey means Ascension, surely.
That was from Ascension Island. The Voyager can do the Falklands run in one hop. Though they normally stop on the way to pick up other passengers and cargo.
Thanks
Thanks very interesting comparison š.However sure you know the Victor was a Bomber in it’s early career but the RAF kept the Vulcan in the Bomber roll.Actually it is said the Victor was the better of the two would of been interesting to see how things would of pattern out of the Vic had bombed Stanley runway and on Black buck Mission . š¤ š¬š§
I think what irritates me about this is that itās a geopolitically irrelevant move that can be perceived as a weakness of resolve and support across the libral west and is therefore an own goal and crap foreign policy that is in no way holisticā¦.. Unfortunately the whole of South America is in chinas pocket, this is a nothing action in regards to changing that really, if it was some part of a seriously put together geo strategic move to remove the influence of china from South America, which the Uk government clearly supported and participated inI would applaud itā¦as is, china is the single biggest trade partner with South America,to the to tune of 400billion dollars a yearā¦has been increasing its trade by around 30% a year most years and by the mid 2035s will be trading 700billion dollars a yearā¦they have also signed geopolitical partnership agreements with all the major regional powers in South America as well as lent out around 180billion dollars in infrastructure investment moneyā¦16 second hand f16s and 3 P3s is as nothing and is meaningless to increasing western influence in Argentina..when played against the very serious geo strategy and mercantile strategy employed by Chinaā¦.what it does do is give Argentina the ability to probe the SAOTā¦.and using western tec not chinaās tec..which is a win win for china as they get information on the SAOT while doing nothing.
So I would have said this was worth the difficulty it will give the UK in the SAOT if it had been linked with a massive geostrategic play backed by a few hundred billion dollarsā¦.as is itās crappy and makes the western alliance look less well put together..and the wests geopolitical enemies will be feeling quit pleases with this moveā¦not shocked that Argentina is moving away from china ( itās not).
I don’t think Argentina would try and invade again. If we still feel nervous about their recent Aircraft acquisition, then we can counter that by bolstering air defences on the island.
That would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul with the way things stand at the moment and it’s no joke š
Its the china aspect . China would be happy to encourage Argentina to retake falklands as that would strengthen chinas sphere of influence not just in South Atlantic, even falklands as a useful naval base but also increases influence over Antarctica for china
A country suffering 138% inflation splashing out on F16’s and P3’s. Priceless!!
Does anyone know the F-16 block? Either way the 4 Typhoons (another question are these 4 upgraded to the latest AESA radar? Well all 24 F-16s couldn’t overcome the 4 Eurofighters quickly accompanied by one of the two carriers carrying the black death part 2 as the Harriers were named the Black Death
By the Argentine pilots
They are Danish Block 15 A/B’s with the MLU upgrade with small mouth Pratt motors and the APG-66v2. They have a Danish homegrown electronic warfare management system that wasn’t designed or evaluated by Lockheed, the Danes installed on their own.
The jets are actually beyond their design life, even with the mid life structural upgrade.
Thanks any word on if the Typhoons are upgraded with the latest AESA?
Thanks for the input appreciated š
Thank you, and thanks again.
If they want to have another go, I reckon itās more likely that they go for a post-truth, psyops approach rather than anything kinetic, maybe a combo. Anyway, we need to be really watchful this time around.
Hmmm, buying is one thing but maintaining them, training on them at a regular pace to maintain the capability is something Argentina will struggle to do. Currently its economy is in dire straights with 100% inflation and an inability to fund what little it has. Selling them ex NATO stock is better than China getting more of a foothold in S. America and they need it to monitor their very large expanse of ocean for illegal fishing and also SAR. I will be amazed if they can keep more than 1 squadron flying on a regular basis.
I wonder how long until unserviceable?
The Argentine Air Force and the Argentine Navy’s naval air force fought with tremendous bravery against the Royal Navy, with many catastrophic losses, using planes from the 1950s with dumb bombs, just 5 Exocet, and some Miragr with Israeli missiles that failed. There is no glory in the British victory, much less in this stupid war driven by a bloody Argentine military regime.
You have every reason to be worried. But I wouldn’t underestimate the ingenuity and determination of South American pilots, assuming they don’t have enough training, or that they have old weapons systems. Empires fell, thinking like that. Here, miracles are performed for the country, and today, we are all democracies.
Times have changed, gentlemen. Argentina will not attack the Islands, as a Brazilian I guarantee, no one wants war. But you will never be welcomed by any of us in South America, even if we have good diplomatic and commercial relations. Attacking Continental Argentina then would be a huge mistake, and I know that what bothers the British Government is money and public opinion.
Greetings from Brazil, to our British friends.