Argentina’s recent purchase of F-16 fighter jets may sound like a big step forward for its military, but it doesn’t significantly alter the situation in the South Atlantic.
While the acquisition boosts the country’s air force on paper, Argentina is still far from posing a serious threat to the Falkland Islands.
A combination of outdated equipment, limited resources, and diplomatic restrictions continues to hold it back.
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For decades, Argentina’s military has been in decline. Before this F-16 deal, the air force struggled to keep even a handful of its planes operational. Its fleet of Mirage fighters was retired, and the A-4 Skyhawks, once the backbone of its air power, were grounded.
Argentina’s broader military remains in a difficult position even with the new jets. The country’s ground forces are underfunded, poorly equipped, and rarely have the resources to train properly. Much of their kit is from the 1970s, and maintenance problems frequently ground aircraft and disabled naval vessels.
Argentina’s defence budget, heavily skewed towards personnel costs, leaves little room for major new purchases. In fact, while there’s been talk of buying $2 billion worth of modern equipment, such plans seem highly unrealistic given the economic constraints.
Instead, the Argentine military has often relied on foreign donations to fill the gaps. Previous attempts to buy fighter jets from Sweden and China were either blocked or fell through due to costs.
Even with F-16s in their arsenal, Argentina doesn’t have the budget to maintain or modernise its military to the extent needed for a credible regional challenge.
In addition to financial issues, Argentina faces significant diplomatic limitations. Since the F-16s are American-made, any meaningful use of the jets would require U.S. approval, especially for maintenance and parts. This dependence makes it highly unlikely that Argentina could deploy them against British forces without facing major hurdles.
Then, there’s the practical side. The Falklands are located roughly 300 miles from the Argentine mainland, across unpredictable South Atlantic waters. Any attempt to stage a military operation over such a distance would be logistically challenging, especially with Argentina’s navy and air force in their current state.
The UK, meanwhile, maintains a robust defence set-up in the Falklands. With its Typhoon jets, RAF Mount Pleasant ensures British air superiority, while a Royal Navy patrol vessel and ground troops offer additional security. Approximately 1,500 military personnel are permanently stationed on the islands, providing a formidable deterrent.
Britain can reinforce its position quickly if necessary. The Falklands remain secure given the UK’s current strength and the challenges facing Argentina.
In short, while Argentina’s purchase of F-16 jets might sound impressive, it doesn’t change the bigger picture. The country’s military is still grappling with outdated equipment, financial constraints, and logistical issues. In addition, the diplomatic dependencies around its new jets and any real threat to the Falklands seem to be distant prospects.
The UK’s defences are more than adequate to ensure the islands’ safety, making it clear that Argentina, despite its recent upgrades, poses little threat at this time.
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Are the Falklands Typhoons equipped with Meteor?
Yes .
No. Tranch 1 airframes not capable of carrying meteor
I read that only three of the Typhoons for the Falkland Islands flight are in flying condition and these are Tranche 1 jets. Not sure what block level the second hand Argentine F-16s are but would be interesting to see if the Tranche 1 Typhoons would still have the edge.
As far as the Argentine’s are concerned, there’s only one way to find out & I doubt they would like to see the outcome
I am not surprised if one out of 4 Typhoons is not currently fit to fly. They are complex machines. You can’t expect 100% availability all the time.
Hi Graham,
Is it truly a case of complexity or no money for spares so they have to cannibalise some to keep the rest flying? I know for the RN, HMS Daring was stripped for parts to keep the other Type 45s operational which is in large part why it is taking so long to get Daring back into the fleet. She has spent longer alongside now than she has at sea.
It’s about engineering maintenance schedules. Aircraft have to be taken offline for routine planned maintenance. Just like your needs a mot and service. The mean time between failure for Typhoon is very impressive. In short. It’s very reliable. The EJ200 also can spend far longer on the airframe before it also requires scheduled maintenance. The 4 T1 jets will remain in the Falklands until 2027 before being replaced with T2 or T3 jets.
I believe they are F-16AM . . basically similar to mid/late F-16Cs up to and including Block 50/52. Airframe age is the biggest issue given some parts are circa 1980 etc.
Yes.They would still very much have the edge.
2 for planned ops
1 standing by as spare
1 on maintenance at any given moment
If Argentina flew 2 x f16 every 4 hours towards falklands QRA would quickly become exhausted……if
If that happened? How quick could additional Typoons get there to help out, going on the assumption that they would still have a place to land ie Mount pleasant and the refueling bridge needed to get them to Acention and then on to the Falklands?
don’t know. Push comes to shove I’m guessing +/- 36-48 hours but others on here will know better than I. Really need to have Ground based CAMM ER (not just std CAMM) capability to balance the limited airframes and/or the River Class gets swapped out for a Type 31 once they are ready…again ideally with some CAMM ER in the load out.
Yeah I heard that there are only three air worthy at Mount pleasant too
Most of the points raised about the Argentine forces could also apply to ours. All sounds very familiar.
There is obviously a party line on Argentina not being a threat. In practice this is all about the US political agenda to keep China put of South America. Just like they gave A4s to Argentina to keep Russia out of South America. The Hunta took powe and used the A4s to attack the Falklands, the US told them not to but they used the A4s anyway. Does any of this give a clue to what may happen in the future…. Argentina has NEVER renounced its claim on the islands and this desire to take back the Falklands is written into their constitution. Argentina has not had an airforce for many years and noons has attacked them… why do they need to rearm… who will be their opponent? Perhaps the UK…..
I’d like to see them try, this time it’ll be more than the Belgrano, the last time wasn’t enough of an indicator for them in that scenario.
What about that country that sold the Junta a couple of destroyers and before that an aircraft carrier to Argentina? Seems as big an issue as A4’s?
Oh wait…
The threat to the falklands Islands is labour party and no stomach kier starmer
Looks like the military is set to get it biggest boost budget wise in a decade under the current government. They have already announced their commitment to the Falklands aswell
Give the islands back to Argentina. Problem solved.
Never had them in the first place.
ask the Falkland islanders their preference – think you probably know the answer .
The residents might have something to say about that.
Didn’t the islanders vote to stay with the UK?
Remain by 99.9%. I’d say that is a clear mandate myself
Nope. They are British. Will remain British indefinitely
And another….
They never had them, so why not make a point that you can back up, instead of a trolling comment.
Very hard to give something back, to someone who didn’t have it to start with.
I would say the Dutch have a stronger claim – they found it first.
Argentina’s military does have a number of issues but also their president is a libertarian and doesn’t believe in war. He on record as criticising the Falklands war started by Argentina and doesn’t believe its an option and prefers dialog.
Only because they lost and currently their armed forces are weak in terms of a potential invasion. If they rebuild their armed forces as they are doing they may be tempted to have another go.
“The country’s military is still grappling with outdated equipment, financial constraints, and logistical issues.” This sounds alarmingly familiar.
Come on. Seriously.
The UK armed forces have exquisite kit.
Apache E, F35B, Poseidon. Wedgetails, Joint Rivets, A400M, C17, Typhoon, Astute, Type 45, QE class carriers, AS90, Archer SPGs, Boxer and Boxer SPGs inbound, Chally 2 and 3, Ajax…( If it ever enters service)
We have great kit and personnel…just not enough of it. It’s the lack of attritional reserves that worries me.
However to face an Argentinian threat we definitely have them over matched. Much more so than we had in 1982.
A single QEC with 24-36 F35B onboard and a couple of type 45s could close the Argentinian mainland and destroy their air force on the ground and do the same for their C3 sites and radar facilities. A single astute could sink the entirety of their navy.
We definitely have a huge overmatch and technological edge.
As the Russian’s are showing you can either have great kit or an attritional reserve but not both.
Hi folks hope all is well.
The article gives some encouragement, we know that the island’s are better prepared than pre 1982. However, no doubt if Argentina were foolish enough to attempt to retake the Falklands again, and the fight was hard, my concern is for us to rapidly deploy reinforcements for back up. Could the UK easily embark on a quick deployment? What assets would we use? Over to you experts as usual please.
Cheers
George
Argentinian air power would be a non-issue. Even a handful of British F-35Bs on a Queen Elizabeth carrier could pose a serious threat to the Argentinian F-16 fleet.
An Astute-class submarine in the region could sink an Argentinian invasion fleet.
UK has 16 Air Assault BCT at very high readiness which can respond (Given the adequate air transport) along with Special Forces.
I do wonder if the RAF have a Typhoon Squadron/Flight at high readiness/short notice to move?
Back in 2009 x4 Typhoon (Faith, Hope, Charity and Desperation) were flown non-stop from UK to Falklands to replace the Tornado F3s stationed there, Which took the effort of x2 TriStars – x4 VC10s – x3 C-130Ks and x1 Nimrod MR2 for SAR cover, Totalling 280 flight hours and 95 personnel.
So any attempt to reinforce by air is going to take extensive planning and huge resources to accomplish.
If things did look like they were going to kick off. There are number of key questions that need answering. Are Argentina looking to attack the Falklands Islands (FI) to make a point for PR or is there indications for an amphibious operation to take the islands? Another question would be are they getting help and if so from whom?
The answer to first question is likely to be an out of blue attack on Mount Pleasant Airfield (MPA). This would likely be using the remaining A4 Skyhawks, supported by their Herc tanker aircraft. These Hercs can only supply fuel using the drogue system. Meaning the F16s can’t use them, as they require the boom system.
The F16 is fairly short legged, it will need to use hardpoint stations for fuel tanks. I’m not sure if this would be enough to get them to the FI and back. Along with spending time over the FI to mix it with the Typhoons.
A real indicator to show Argentina are getting serious about the FI, is if they get a tanker aircraft with a refueling boom. This would be an absolute game changer. As it would allow the F16s to reach the FI with a much larger weapons load. But more importantly give them the opportunity to mix it with the Typhoons.
However, a big difference today is that MPA is now protected by Sky Sabre, after it replaced Rapier. This is a significant step change in air defence capabilities. As it can be used against both aircraft and missiles. So if Skyhawks were used that currently don’t have stand-off weapons, they would be easy meat for Sky Sabre.
Before anything reinforcements get sent via air bridge, you can guarantee that at least one Astute would be sent at flank speed for the South Atlantic. Although a single Astute cannot be in two places at once. Its Tomahawks (TLAM) have a long reach.
The question though is, would our incumbent Government have the balls to use TLAM against mainland military targets? If the answer is yes, then the airfields and aircraft housing the F16s and Herc tankers would certainly be primary targets. Secondary targets would likely be ports with amphibious ships alongside.
An Astute with a number of TLAM used strategically, can go a long way in removing some of the primary pieces off the chess board. If two were available, then even more pieces could be removed. Which could either delay or remove the threat altogether.
The final question about if Argentina are doing it of their own back or are getting help. Could be just as important. If they do get help and it’s someone like Russia or China, they may provide satellite surveillance information or supply weapons. This will make life more complicated for our forces. Although most of these countries weapons won’t be compatible with the F16.
To summarize, for the U.K. the Astute will be a key player in any possible future conflict with Argentina. Especially if it’s allowed to use its TLAM against mainland targets.
The Mount pleasant air base was also supposed to be getting an integrated air defence system based on land Ceptor and ? Close range radar guided guns.
Not sure if that’s true. Just remember reading that somewhere a couple of years ago.
The tranche 1 typhoon aircraft based at Mount pleasant can easily handle some old model F16s.
What happens when tranche 1s are retired?
Will the UK deploy 4 tranche 2 or 3 aircraft from a very limited fleet of what 90 aircraft?
We need either a new batch of typhoons or tempest bringing into service a lot earlier eg IOC by 2030 and retain tranche 1 until Tempest is ready.
As far as I know Sky Sabre is in the Falklands I presume at MP. However the system can be dispersed. Not sure about the radar controlled guns. They should put in Starstreak vehicle mounted.
Sky Sabre has been deployed in FI since 2021.
Sky Sabre definately ,Radar Guided Guns unlikely seeing as the RA and RAF Regt had been all Missile since the era of the Rapier,
I was making the point that since the war in 1982 there have been many problems concerning the Falklands. If you want to keep them british that’s fine, but there will continue to be problems. The simplest option will be to get rid of them.
Appeasement is never the answer. History has taught us that!
“If that territory is now in the hands of the United Kingdom, it has the right to do so. “I don’t see it as a provocation,” added Milei, whose position contrasts with that of previous Argentine governments, which have demanded that the United Kingdom open negotiations on the sovereignty of the islands, which has always been rejected by London.
Milei said that he wants the islands to be Argentine “within the framework of peace” https://forbes.com.mx/milei-admite-que-las-malvinas-estan-en-manos-britanicas-y-que-no-hay-solucion-instantanea/