AUKUS crew fly RC-135 surveillance aircraft over Pacific

UK EYES ALPHA, intelligence distributed to UK agencies only but often the 5 eyes are included on the circular.
UK EYES BRAVO wider distribution to allies outside the 5 eyes agreement.
Humit, Elint and Ilint, plus much more.
I was attacted to the 55th wing at Offett AFB operating out of Kadena Okinawa many years ago. For weeks I was escorted around the CAOC a windowless structure even when I needed to take a leak. The amount of information that was hoovered up was incredible. Knowledge is power and if you know what others are doing or intend to do is more than just the golden hour. Impressive yes and to a certain degree worrying.

Yes. I suspect many don’t realise just how powerful and capable UKUSA is. I like to use that old term for what expanded into 5 Eyes.

Leaving the EU, the remoaner saying we’re being excluded from intelligence sharing? Go ahead, we’re a part of something much much bigger. Knock yourselves out.

The intelligence side is as important to the defence of our great country as is the military.

Our boys and girls are present at several locations like the CAOC you describe.

Impressive, yes. I don’t find it worrying personally, that’s all too much Liberty and Guardian for my taste, being against people trying to stop us being blown up by terrorist bastards yet local firms happily snoop on your shopping habits.

Their welcome. GB

I’m sure we could do with better intel on speed boat sales in northern France and it’s probably not a particular interest to five eyes.

What would we do with that information, inform the French authorities so they can stock said boats in the required quantities!?

gochelwch rhag troliau

😳😆

To be fair most nations in the far east have been very concious of the rising Chinese threat & building their forces up markedly the last decade at least. It’s certainly not a case of Putins invasion prompting them. The big problem has been most of NATO(including the UK) reducing conventional forces below anything that makes us look serious. For all China’s growing military hardware, the neighbouring nations combined with US commitments in the region at least match Chinese capablitiies.

Actually, my comparison was to the 1930s, prewar. Agreed, Russia has exactly one trump card, its’ nukes. More concerned w/ ChiComs, and the rate of acceleration in their armament program. US currently has preponderance of power. Ten to fifteen yrs. from now, given current trendline? Without significant US investment, a much more problematic peoposition, apart from possible political instability. Equally concerning, British and French governments currently exhibit relatively little progress in rearming. Really would be useful to have someone w/ gravitas of W.S. Churchill become next PM. The frontline states (e g. Poles, Baltic states, Finns, Swedes, etc.) are alarmed and aroused to action, but, even collectively, do not have the aggregate manpower and GDP to meaningfully affect course of events. Equally, it is fortunate in the Indo-Pacific that Japan, S. Korea, and Australia all appear to be accelerating armament programs, but will it be both sufficient and in time? Believe there is an appropos Chinese epithet, “may you live during interesting times.”

… proposition…🙄

I don’t disagree with your analysis. The problem on rearmament for the likes of the UK and France is the vast size of US forces. Britain could double its defence budget and it would still have exactly the same political weight with Washington as it does now. The UK faces little in the way of a direct threat and it’s difficult to tell people to pay more tax to deal with a belligerent China given how far away it is. It’s worth noting that no one in the Indo pacific was massively keen on helping Europe against the soviets in the Cold War. Matters are further not helped by just how useless the Russian land forces are. Poland could probably defeat Russia solo once it finishes its rearmament program on juts 3% of GDP. We are told constantly the Russian navy is far superior to their army and air force however four months ago we thought their land forces were amazing so there is every chance their navy is just as crap.
China is certainly the main threat however unless they can find a way to run a modern economy without oil the UK could probably defeat then on its own by simply basing a fleet at Diego Garcia and cutting off its oil supply. The PLAN’s dismal performance against CSG21 suggest UK naval technology is far superior to anything China has. Also unlike ww2 the UK has little in the region to genuinely worry about. Our nearest sovereign territory is now Diego Garcia. Sure lots of Allie’s to support but it’s more us making a contribution in the form of a CSG and a couple of brigades to a US force or perhaps an Aussie/Japanese force if the US sat it out. As in WW2 the UK a primary role in any conflict would probably be to hold the ME and the Indian Ocean where we have multiple basis to facilitate this sheik the likes of the USA and Japan operated in the pacific.

Sorry, don’t understand the term “sheik” in the last sentence of your response. Please explain.

My contention is that in 10-15 yrs., given the command nature of its’ society and economy, and a robust armaments program, the ChiComs may be able to decisively and comprehensively defeat a combination of USN, RN, RAN, Japanese and S. Korean fleets, in addition to any other fleet capable of assembly, and the collective expeditionary air forces of the allies. The sole response would then be unrestricted nuclear warfare, a distinctly unpleasant prospect.

Sorry sheik is a typo should say while. China can have all the fleet it wants but basing is the issue . Chinas geography is terrible for projecting naval power. If it can’t hold the Indian Ocean and the straits of malacca at present then it can’t import oil and it will loose in the same way that The axis did in ww2 I.e. lack of oil.

In addition the only platform likely to matter in a shooting war are SSN’s. China has shown its SSN’s are still a generation or two behind the US and UK’s. In 15 years they might catch up on tech but then it will take decades to actually build them.

Martin,

Thanks for your prompt response and explanation. I certainly hope your forecast of the next 15 yrs..is more accurate than mine. Two additional questions arise 🤔: 1.). How does the West constrain future PLAN basing, leveraged by ChiCom financial investment in worldwide port infrastructure? and, 2.). How does West prevent wholesale theft of the designs of next generation SSNs by ChiCom foreign intelligence service? ChiCom activity is reminiscent of cancer metastasis.

Basing is hard to prevent with our current weak policy. One only has to look at what’s happening in the Solomon Islands. It’s hard when you go out of your way to not have an empires to prevent others from building empires as local elites tend to favour empires as they benefit. Harsh sanctions might work as a deterrent for island nations like the Solomon’s. Fortunately the Himalayas make Pakistan basing largely irrelevant in the Indian Ocean however Myanmar is a bigger concern. Hard to stop it though as they have a boarder with China and are completely economically dominated by them. Continued focus on democracy is likely the way to defeat Chinese basing. Africa is a different story however as the Germans found out in WW1 having a loan naval base on the far side of the planet ain’t much use. It’s just an easy quick win for the enemy at the start of a war.

As for SSN tech theft, I think as with jet engines they can have all the plans it’s the ability to precision machine that’s the the issue. Hard to stop them catching up though.

Psst…will let all of you in on a state secret…when the chips are down, the US will only count on unalloyed support from a handful of states (and those of Anglo-Saxons descent comprise the vast majority). Therefore, each aircraft carrier, submarine, destroyer, frigate, fighter sqdrn, armor or artillery formation deployed in harm’s way would be gratefully accepted by those who count. Please do not repeat this; reasonably certain this info is not PC orthodoxy. 😎

For sure, my only concern is that the US figures out that the pacific is crazy wide and the US is nowhere near China and packs up and goes home. Too many countries free load on the security provided by USA and US voters are increasingly isolationist. The last 3 presidents in America have had no foreign policy at the start of their administration beyond pulling out troops and strategic retreat.

There is a Latin motto which is relatively popular w/in rhe US military, “Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum,” roughly translated into English as “If you want/wish for peace, prepare for war.” (Sorry, I was never more than an indifferent student of Latin,). Believe motto also known to UK military. A personal favorite is the Theodore Roosevelt quote re foreign policy, “Speak softly, carry a big stick.” Homespun words of wisdom, undimmed by the passage of six score years. If potential opponents know they will be annihilated, most sane parties will seek a reasonable accommodation.

Another discomforting thought to stoke your nightmares: what transpires after Mad Vlad and his slobbering Orc horde detonate a tac nuke in Ukraine, if they are repulsed in future battles (an option per Russian doctrine)? 🤔 Personally believe Russian response would begin w/ rest of CBRN panoply of options, but have been mistaken on numerous occasions. 😳 Would the West give the Ukrainians a corresponding weapon to retaliate with? Presume we are collectively in a whole new ballgame at that point. Arrgh,,,,

Tactical nukes are not really that effective unless you have a specific target like and airbase. Also the Ukrainians have the ability already to deploy a dirty nuke on Russian territory that’s likely far more devastating than a tactical nuke.

Very interesting, didn’t realize the Ukrainians had that capability. Surplus from Chernobyl?

Surplus from Chernobyl and all the other nuclear reactors across the country. They currently have 15 providing half their electricity. They have had fake deals with he Russians up until this year however there will be plenty in storage across the country for a dirty bomb and there was speculation they might have such a device just after the war started. Delivery platforms may be an issue however they have significant stocks of ballistic missiles that could be retro fitted or they can use an aircraft or helicopter with a barrel bomb at a push.

They don’t even have to use spent fuel for such a weapon. Processed waste from Chernobyl would be sufficient for a Low grade weapon.

Let’s just hope mad Vlad does not test them.

The Nazis and to a certain extent the Japanese high command believed they were racially superior and this racial superiority would some how over come their clear economic short comings. I don’t think the Chinese have the same belief.

Belief in racial superiority is not the only false belief. Belief in a false philosophy invented by an unemployed German philosopher is as destructive.

Could well be.

Ultimately the gas pipeline will go to China who will own the pipeline – the Russians could never build it in time.

The Russians will sell the Chinese gas at whatever price the Chinese dictate. Which won’t be much. There are two lessons China has learned from Germany: cheap energy, cheap credit for investment in building plant and machinery.

There are big questions of the Russians can build a pipeline with out western technology.

The Russians can’t without the Ukrainians for sure. They cannot make the compressors themselves.

The Chinese will have a go at stealing the designs for the West and building one that never quite performs to advertised standards.

Yes. They value the Northern Resource Area.

Taiwan is so different, to Ukraine, in that it has relatively well trained armed forces with some decent weapons that would make Nad Vlad’s eyes smart.

Essentially the shoulder launched kit needs to flooded in as does shore based AShM (Harpoon is there in quantity) and something like Ceptor to augment Patriot.