The situation on the ground hasn’t changed much in recent days.
According to a Ministry of Defence intelligence update:
- It remains highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved the objectives outlined in its pre-invasion plan.
- Russian ground forces continue to make limited progress. Logistical issues that have hampered the Russian advance persist, as does strong Ukrainian resistance.
- Russia is likely seeking to reset and re-posture its forces for renewed offensive activity in the coming days. This will probably include operations against the capital Kyiv.
Who controls what?
Here’s a map, remember things can change in seconds.
Here's the status of the Russian invasion this morning. Reports suggest that Russian ground forces continue to make limited progress. The British Ministry of Defence says that logistical issues that have hampered the Russian advance persist, as does strong Ukrainian resistance. pic.twitter.com/dg2MVPzna0
— George Allison (@geoallison) March 11, 2022
Reports suggest that Russian forces appear to be regrouping in order to encircle Kyiv. Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies show the large Russian military convoy that was last seen north of Kyiv had largely been redeployed. Maxar said its pictures showed that armoured units had dispersed out through forests in the area, with artillery looking like it is moving into potential firing positions.
A senior US Defense Department official also claimed that in the west of Kyiv, the Russian military had advanced by about 5 kilometres closer to central Kyiv, in the vicinity of Hostomel Airport. The column advancing from the east was meanwhile 40 kilometres away from Kyiv. Furthermore, he claimed that Chernihiv was now “isolated”. Ukrainian forces meanwhile claimed to have ambushed a Russian column in Brovary Raion and forced it to retreat after destroying several tanks.
Conflict has now been running longer than the time it took the US forces to enter Baghdad. . Suspect the next 4 days will he telling. Pressure coming down on Russian commanders must be crushing.
The American and Allies ‘Shock and Awe’ is a bit different to the Russian way of doing things. They have different mentalities and methods.
I think Syria may be a better example of how the battle will go. Including the future use of chemical weapons to clear the defenders from urban areas.
Will NATO consider that a Redline?
Does NATO have any redlines in relation to non-members?
We have in the recent past, along with US and France forces. Where conducted a coordinated cruise missile strike on Syrian chemical weapons depots. After it emerged that Assad’s regime had used them on their own people. As quoted this week by the Defence Minister James Heappey, when asked whether the use of chemical weapons might cross a “red line” that led to cause NATO members becoming involved in the conflict? (BBC Radio 4) He said: “I don’t think it is helpful to get into any firm commitment right now about where that red line sits, but I think President… Read more »
Thanks. I assume the justification is that use of chemical weapons is outlawed under the Geneva Treaty of 1925 and the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993.
I’m not sure the red-lines are helpful in this scenario? Would NATO make a proportionate response if Russia takes certain decisions – possibly it depends upon the circumstances. Putin is threatening to throw the rule book away completely but his problem with that is thast it is uniting the world against him – in time his own people will be against him. He needs to quit whilst he is only massively behind.
His type don’t generally quit. They just burn it all down as they go.
Agreed. It is not necessarily just his head on the block though. There must be many more Russians with a lot to lose – perhaps some of them have some influence
I think that’s our only hope. But like Hitler he has had many years to ensure those around him follow or believe and the rest of the public are feed a constant diet of what he wants them to know until every thinks in double think or is to powerless or scared to act ( most Germans knew what was happening in the 30s and then 40s but did nothing).
Putin will be worried about a a von stauffenburg hence the long tables maybe. Certainly the problem is a Russian one and they will need to sort out their leadership. The rest of the world can’t make their decisions for them.
But they can force it’s hand my money 💰 is in a military coup
ditto Andy
Mark ,maybe if the Russian people were too find out that A Presidents yearly salary does not equate too what he has in his Bank accounts and how he has acquired this wealth then maybe just maybe the same would happen too him as what happened to putins mate in 2014 Ukraine
Russian leaders are not renown for their longevity a coup to get rid of him is not out of a possibility Th Po of the oligarchs is endless and when life gets hard for the family they will remove the cause, and cut the head off the snake 🐍 or the military Will do it as a reward for the debacle We’re. Seeing
Ukraine waas once known as the breadbasket of the East I’d hope a scorched earth policy won’t happen there
To be honest Andy this years crop will be done for anyway. Even if there is any harvest, yealds Williams be crap as there will not be any work don on soil nutrients ( which you would be doing now for wheat). Barely needs putting in the group now as well. Finally what infrastructure will be in place to store and export any crops.
Red lines do not exist NATO dies not exist to take aggressive military action sulpos8 a line was drawn where if Russia encroached what would we do? If say a no fly zone if a Russian plane ignores it and refuses to leave the area what happens? If it is shot down thenww3 Will happen.
True Russian tactics are very different to those used by NATO…
But they do seem to be struggling… Makes you wonder if the common soldiers heart just is not in it!!
The Russian soldiers must be having difficulties seeing a positive outcome to this …
Yep, considering there are stories out there of them being told they are going on Exercise….
The Ukraine will become what Chechnya was a non stop issue which will spread inside Russia itself in 6 from of terrorism in short Russia’s Vietnam
The fact that Russian high ranking commanders keep getting knocked off because they need to get to the frontline to push forward their own soldiers is telling of bad morale.
100% agree…
Looks like the Ukrainians copied the play book of Sharp…
Dave, iwas thinking that about how many Senior Ranking Officers have now gone and wondered whether all went through actions of Ukrainian or the Russian Conscripts “Fragged” them
The use of chemical weapons in Europe not seen on the scale since WW1! I would call it a redline.
Redline? No such thing it’s a media generated buzzphrCatchPhrasese
When chemical weapons were used in Allepo Syria. Obama made a statement that if such weapons were used a recline would have been crossed! Nothing happened because it was Syria. This is Europe we are talking about, a completely different ball game. If Russia gets away with It in Ukraine, NATO knows that borders will have no boundaries.
NATO can’t get involved, no matter what happens in Ukraine, including use of nukes. The moment NATO gets involved, it’s only a matter of time before it goes nuclear and NATO and Russia are leveled.
Steve,We,know NATO cannot intervene ,today,the Russians demanded a UN security Council meeting ,if they were so intent in a UN meeting then they wouldn’t mind UN peacekeepers being on the ground in the Ukraine
Hope so…who would lead the PK effort…China? India? South Americans? Perhaps a combined Swedish / Finish effort.
Would have too find a country that has no vested interest in either Country Pete
That’ll be the oirish, they’ll drag the bastard Russians to the table and drink them under it. However, they’re tough lads. Stupid o’clock at Katowice station last week and 18 carriage long trains coming in. We know about men not being allowed to leave; I saw no young teenage boys on the trains. And then on Saturday, mum, two daughters and jack russell – they were knackered, but, not broken. Her husband was fighting, she was going home. No words. My personal opinion. The Ukraine is not a no go zone for NATO, send in medical convoys – if attacked,… Read more »
Thanks David ,it’s quite heart wrenching watching families being torn apart ,your last piece, on sending in Medical convoys The Russians dont give much credence for Medical vehicles, their’s normally don’t carry Medical equipment ,Just Ammunition and other non medical equipment , they think that if they do it ,we do it ,and would probably attack them , .Then it would be Gloves off ,Biden would have no excuse not too
I hear you Steve. However the longer term consequences of staying out and allowing Putin to use WMD could be that every hostile nation and every threatened nation (or ethic grouping) will be scrambling to get hands on nukes. Imagine 20 to 30 mini cold wars around the planet or a dozen or so regimes behaving in the style of Putin. Hopefully sanctions will bring Russians to table for a UN brokered peace deal soon. ….ohhhh, had a thought. How would we all react if China volunteered to lead a peacekeeping effort. Would probably need to be them, the Indians… Read more »
Just as much Chance of China making a grab at tiawan
Thats why Biden was reiterating last night that the US simply will not get involved in Ukraine.
James I’ll Give Sleepy Joe something ,when he stated that if the US or NATO were too get involved ,with Russia in the Ukraine, WW3 would be the outcome and seeing how ADOLF Putin is acting the reality of it happening is closer than Biden would like His and Nato hands are tied Putin knows this and will continue his barbaric actions even Chenobyl could become a false flag terrorist action for Putin claiming that Ukrainian terrorist have compromise the Nuclear security at the Plant sending radiation across western Europe like 86 but this time Deliberate
Putin is pushing the boundaries and he is certainly testing the US and the west to the absolute limit here. I really hope he doesnt go down the route of chemical or small scale nuclear attacks. My predication Belarus enters the frame from the north heading to Ukraines Western cities whilst Russia continues its slow progress in other areas of the east and South whilst circling Kiev and starting to attack Odessa. With fuel prices going insane and the anti war sentiment gathering in the West pressures on governments all around the world is getting stronger and stronger. Putin knows… Read more »
‘Anti-war sentiment gathering in the west’ ? Where in the west ? 🙄🤔
Do you want it as per a compass or as per whats very commonly known as the ‘western’ world?
I’ll take that as a no then.
Think you are answering a different question to what you asked initially.
Putin realises that his Librration ploy isn’t holding water, The Russian Ivan on the streets like winners regardless of how they achieve it the first rule of Communism was if at first you don’t succeed Cheat such as with the Olympics.So Putin has ratcheted it up too now Looking for WMDS (bio and Chemical) this has been leaked too the Russian public as a justification for his New task of ensuring that Russia security will be garrentied when the job is complete regardless of the cost beit Civilian and their own military Putin is all about being about a Strong… Read more »
Russian leaders are not renown for longevity it could be that a coup of some description may happen
It would have too be from the populous and lower ranks of the Armed Forces ,Putin greases the hands of everyone else he has them in his pocket either with treats or threats Andy
Andy ,By 2014 it was reckoned that Putin had amassed a wealth through his protection or what’s known in Russian as “Roof” the bigger the “Roof the greater the Protection at an estimated 40 billion making him one of the richest men in the world and that 134 friends of him own 40^ of Russia wealth I wonder what the average Russian on the street would make of it How a Servent of the People on a President salary could Legally amass such a fortune
Really Andy? Leaving aside the sick old men (Andropov, Chernenko): Stalin (29 yrs), Krushchev (11 yrs), Brezhnev (18 yrs), Gorbachev (7 yrs), Putin (22 yrs as President/PM).
However, coup is very likely.
If the Ukrainian situation doesn’t make vast expansion of the European members of NATO aPriority what will?
I dont disagree, Putin has done exactly what he didnt want to rally everyone to join NATO, I can see alot of non European countries pushing to join also.
Peace in our time huh ? According ot our media (Belgian) the Russians consider the Nato weapons convoys as legitimate targets … when will Nato say this is a red line … when will Danzig happen?
NATO mistake was not deploying into Ukraine before the invasion started. They choice to be weak and Russia is now exploiting it. The decision was made and now there is no going back, NATO can’t now get involved, no matter what happens in Ukraine. The red line will have to be another country.
No such thing as a redline it a media generated press buzz word.
I totally disagree. He is a bully, he needs slapping down. The Russians will do the rest.
While we disemble and dither, children are killed. That should be our red line.
Putin is getting his “victory”, but at a glacial pace & at a huge cost to Russia & Ukraine. Any rational leader would be looking for a way out, with a deal. The fact that Putin isn’t, makes me fear this war is going to drag on. Only if the West mans up & becomes more resolute, while staying calm, but firm, is there any chance of the Kremlin seeking a genuine deal.
Putin and his nation will count the cost when an insurgency starts in his own cities Ukrainian terrorism like with the Chechens will turn the nation against him and his fellow nodding dogs responsible for the fiasco
I think NATO forces suitable for an intervention (Tanks, Artillery, SAMs, combat jets & helicopters) should be deploying to South Eastern Poland & Eastern Slovakia. We would still be on NATO lands, but dropping a heavy hint to Putin, that he had better get serious about offering Ukraine an honorable deal.
It is said that one key reason the USSR collapsed was because the economy could not support the defence spend. Might this happen again with Russia?
Yes, but it might take years.
Do you think there is an enthusiasm for using nuclear weapons?
I doubt it. But depends how badly the war goes. As the sanctions bite and if the Russian army fail to bring results, Putin might find himself cornered in his desire to maintain control of Russia. His power has always been a compromise with the rich elite and if he can’t bring them new wealth by taking Ukraine, they might look to remove him.
I think the end game has started for Putin. I don’t see how he can recover politically from this debacle.
Terrorism brought to the Russian doorsteps by a Ukrainian insurgency will make the problems with Chechens look like nothing this will be Russia’s Vietnam
The American and Allies ‘Shock and Awe’.
Here, the Russians are just bewildering in their ‘tactics’. And a good thing too!!
Interesting footage from a couple of weeks back.
https://youtu.be/y1dXAs2ybIU
Keep on keeping on Ukraine 🇺🇦. !! Strength to all you brave souls. Keep on knocking out as many 🇷🇺 tanks, vehicles and launchers as possible and planes too! It’s your country and your people!
We need to look carefully at the Russian force posture. They invaded with 200,000 troops. Now they’ve lost 10,000 dead which probably means 30,000 wounded too. So that 200,000 is now 160,000. Without calling out their reserves (millions of them) then there are only 800,000 troops left in Russia. 400,000 of them are conscripts and they still need to screen their borders, the Kurile Isles, Mongolia, central Asia, Turkey, Kaliningrad, The Baltic States and the high north.Therefore, although we think about Russia as this massive force, their ability to deploy conventional combat power is finite. If the Ukrainians keep up… Read more »
I’m not sure its just a question of the realative numbers here. The Russians are fighting a 20th Century war with 20th Century equipment and tactics from God knows what era. Against a 21st Century opponent, well trained and highly motivated and equipped with the most lethal 21st Century anti-armour weapons that rarely miss. An infantry man so equipped can take on a tank, APC etc and expect to win. I can just imagine the terror in a tank unit once they know they are up against opponents very likely fielding Javelin or NLAW. Although doing very well, if the… Read more »
“Although doing very well, if the Ukrainian’s had had comparable air defence forces, I think these Russian forces would be in very real danger of being annihilated on the battlefield.”
Very true, just imagine the damage the Ukranians could have done to that Russian column moving towards Kyiv if they’d had a couple of squadrons of A-10s.
Ridiculous, they will downed very fast like Su-25…
Not necessarily as the A10 was built to survive and if the Russkie AD is as woeful as it’s other arms then the possibility of pretty much wiping out these car parks of incompetence are very high!
The believe some have in own propaganda is outstanding.
Your typed English is a little unclear, however I think I know your meaning. I leave the propaganda to those who are fools, to myself and others who have experience on the subject matter, I give you………experience.
Experience from those around me in the Falklands the made all the difference when the missiles were flying experience is a force multiplyer and a massive difference in getting the best out of those in any situation.
Yes that would be you Russians lol.
Not going very well for you Ivan is it lol, Russia the butt of all military jokes.
You really are incapable of seeing the vulnerability of an A-10 against manpads and other AA. it is really instructive to see how people change their rules depending the side they are.
The minor variations between a Su-25 and A-10 do not make a relevant difference in survival against manpads.
That in the end you resort to ad hominem also show more about you than about me.
The A10 is deadly for this kind of thing
Indeed. Almost exactly opposite to our BEF in Europe at the beginning of WW2. (Infantry unable to take-on any armour). Makes me think the Russians never considered infantry with ant-armour weapons. Impressed with the NLAW! I wonder if this is the end of heavy armour? bit like the end for Battleships!
We had anti-tank weapons in WW2 – didn’t spell the end of the tank.
NATO will learn greatly from the conflict Russia tactics logistics failing to equipment inability to gain air supiority so poor as to be unusable the big Bear 🐻 in the east looks like a family pet.
Russia only has 280,000 personnel in its ground forces. The million figure includes its Air Force, Navy and Strategic Rocket forces. They have committed the vast majority of deployable units from their army.
Exactly the figure of 800-900,000 is not the army on the ground forces.
The question is out of the circa 250-300,000 in the standing army how many are longer term professional soldiers and how many are doing the annual conscription duties?
Gmany of the figures include prospective conscript available to boost the size of the
And found them wanting
That is quite the picture. Looks like a lot of knocked out kit. This drone video (link below, first video) on the BBC shows a Russian armoured column getting ambushed. Not sure how many vehicles are actually knocked out, but there a good nuber of hits. Also, in the first version I saw the imagine was a wider view and you could loads of ‘flickering’ small arms fire set back from the road all around the ambush point. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60699332 If nothing else it shows how effect the Ukrainians are setting an ambush, which must be very disconcerting for the ‘liberating’… Read more »
To my untrained eyes, their (the Russian) tactics look shambolic. What on earth were all the tanks doing lined up on a major road, as if lining up for some parade?? Astonishingly stupid, or am I missing something?
Suspect the training “exercises” on the boarders before the invasion would have put a lot of wear and tear on the tanks, expect problem getting parts and fuel to keep them going!
Yes you don’t know war practicalities.
Some of us do and their combined arms tactics seem none existent, basic recce, route selection, tactical movement, reaction to effective enemy fire, etc all would appear not to be employed, more likely not trained and their comms kit? Analogue radios in this day and age FFS!
Do you have any criticism to say to this phrase Airborne? if you don’t have you know nothing.
You are struggling with your English, which I take it, is not your first language? I have much criticism of the Russkies ongoing tactical desicison making, at every level of command. It would be most interesting to hear your take on the ongoing Russkie operation AlexS? Doing well do you think?
It has been a disaster, i even saw photos of Russian T-72 that the reactive armour bricks had no explosives inside..
But tanks starting to assemble is typical of a military operation.
Interestingly i answer to your questions but you don’t to mine.
What questions, the only one I haven’t answered was the silly one about “if I don’t see what’s wrong with that’s line I know nothing” mmmmmm well I answer the questions and ask my own, as after nearly 30 years as a professional soldier in the mil, at every rank up to LE commission, and the various jobs they bring, I do question your subject knowledge comments and subject matter experience. As your posts are quite simplistic and with due respect show a very limited military experience without decent level of command experience.
Alex it would be more beneficial if you posted an answer to Andrew, he is asking a question. To quote your reply, it also appears the Russian army doesn’t know the practicalities of war either.
They know the practicalies of assembling a force to advance… Do you think that you can have you force always dispersed? And the dispersion don’t make other risks increase? The problem with ignorant commentaries here is that you and others think that they can do war as a set piece, information is always 80-100% reliable and on time, you can go move on and every enemy ATGW team will be detected and bombarded before being in range, enemy artillery will destroyed etc etc… And at end of the war the causalities are numbered in 100 or so. Basically a fairy… Read more »
Thank you for the explanation Alex. I understand what you are saying, as the adage goes “no plan survives first contact ”
That being said, I’m not the one having my tank column blown into next week.
might this be due to to the terrain being too muddy for open movement of tanks.
To be fair , I know of several incidents in ww2 where German and allied tanks were caught in similar circumstances. A single Tiger tank under Michael Wittman destroyed 28 British tanks and vehicles in a column outside Villers-Bocage, France in1944.
Combined arms tactics I say no more!
You are only in combined arms tactics deployed for combat, in movement and in mounting or demounting you are not in combined arms tactics. A column of Russian tanks and a column of British tanks moving along an European typical route with vegetation are vulnerable to be ambushed and to long range artillery.
For example what AA missiles does British Army(criticism valid for most NATO countries) have that can fire on the move or short stop?
NATO army would need some ad-hoc trucks filled with manpads to have some sort of AA defence.
Wrong mate I’m afraid, combined arms tactics isn’t just about combat, it starts from the planning phase (indeed needs to by trained and practiced for years) to the build up, moving from the LOD, towards, upto and through the objective. It’s a very in depth subject which would appear that you are not well versed in it. To keep it as simple as possible for the layman, here goes! You utilise assets and platforms from all 3 dimensions, let’s say a BCT moving from the LOD towards its objective, big main road heading towards objective, 1 x Chally Sqn, 2… Read more »
Haha I can see the Russian generals frantically looking for pen a paper to copy down what you wrote and use it. It would appear that some of the troops do not want to get out of the armoured vehicles until it’s to late. My worry would be where are the better units of the Russian army? I had thought before this Ukraine business that Russia was a 2 tier army. With a smaller number of better equipped, better trained units akin to a smaller European army and then a larger number of soldiers still with the old equipment left… Read more »
Agreed mate, they want to be seen to have a large modern military while Ukraine has shown they are a large army yes, capable no, and certainly lacking any sort of quality training and real multi dimensional capability! They have shown to the world maybe we have all been worrying throughout the Cold War (aside from the nukes) for nothing! It’s shocking (fortunately) to see just how bad their tactics, training and C3 is at every level! Cheers mate!
Drone view of a Russian Ambush of Ukr forces from Feb. I suspect there are pockets of good practice being performed on both sides.
https://youtu.be/y1dXAs2ybIU
I do fear for Ukranians once the mud hardens in April.
Pete
No air superioritypoor logistics poor tactically equipment so useless it is made a mockery of. By a force on paper should have been swept aside in days.
Just read this very interesting article by Time about India’s position and role in the current crisis. https://time.com/6154734/india-ukraine/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB It highlights India’s long term relationship with Russia and its continuing need for Russian support in its face off with China. It also explains India’s move towards the US as part of the Quad group in highlight of China’s assertiveness. Long story short, India’s long term relationship with Russia is too complicated to simply walk away from and in any event such a move might finally push Russia into China’s arms. So India needs to play the long game, basically it is… Read more »
Given the economic sanctions, Russia is effectively in “China’s arms”, the Indians are completely deluding themselves if they think Russia will support India over China.
Exactly, Russia is now quite literally owned by China as its only financial lifeline.
India also needs to consider is Russian supplied military equipment actually any good? It may hold its own against Chinese knock offs but compared to western equipment I think they need to look elsewhere for procurement.
It may be that the Ukr Army is doing much better than our media are reporting – and the Russians much worse.
This link is good with near real-time data and strategic analysis
https://twitter.com/jominiw/status/1502176338404200450
mmm I think the reporting of UK mainstream media is “interesting” to say the least. It may just be me but I see much about refugees – important though that is – but little about progress of the conflict itself except constant reference to a 40km Russian column NW of Kyiv. For instance I would have thought the loss of 3 named Russian generals KIA (most notably the Commander of the 29th Army, Eastern Military District) might have warranted a passing reference on the BBC News but must have missed it. It seems to me they wait for confirmation from… Read more »
It has been on the reported on the BBC live reporting about the generals
Fantastic thread David, well done for finding it.
A great thread, thanks for the link.
So here we are after however many days now, taking *hite, and doing nothing! Sky news reports that the bodies of civilians alongside Ukrainian soldiers, are being buried in mass graves. The west’s answer… do nothing! Bodies are piling up in towns and cities across Ukraine, and the west does nothing! Russia will pound Ukraine to rubble, and the west will do nothing. Russia will use chemical weapons, and the west will do nothing! Russia will take as long as it takes, to punish and murder the Ukrainians, and the west will do nothing! How many nothings will it take,… Read more »
Tom, we all worry what’s happening, but there is always hope, more stuffing is generally not the answer, history goes on and happiness returns.
Hi Jonathan
Not this time I’m afraid. The world is over populated by probably more than 2 billion as it is.
If things carry on unchecked, by 2040, it will stand at almost 10 billion. The planet cannot sustain us, or feed us already.
Unfortunately Tom I completely agree ( I’ve a degree in environmental science). Organisms that have no environmental, biological controls on numbers alway overwhelm/destroy their environment and then suffer a catastrophic population loss. But the difference is we know this and have the means to manage. It does mean the whole world taking on responsibility for numbers of people and very dam damaging nations ( western and China etc) calming their use of resources. We can use birth control it does work. But if not global warming is going to kill billions within 50 years so……. lucky for us just not… Read more »
Humans currently have a worse reproduction rate than Pandas and we are not an organism like any other we are technologically capable. Lab grown meat is already being sold, in 10 years it will be 10 times cheaper than regular meet and most farmland on earth with return to nature. We can support billions more humans on earth not that we will have the need as the birth rate in virtually every country is below replacement and rapidly falling.
Birth rates are falling in most Western countries you mean?
Considering 100% of the African continent is at a multiple birth rate figure, middle east also, most of Asia and South America aswell, that accounts for a huge portion of the world still breeding in multiples.
James , the same Western trend is occurring in China, with a dramatic reduction in birth rates- a hangover from the one child policy.
India and the rest of the developing world , as you point out is a very different picture.
I forgot to add this insight from a us fertility study
:”China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4b in four years’ time before nearly halving to 732m by 2100.”
Martin, the drivers around human population more complex that reproduction. Rates, yes we have very low reproduction. Rates compared to most animals, but our mortality rates and life expectancy are off the chart. We utterly dominate the mammal biomass on the planet, 96% of all mammal biomass is focused on humanity ( manly feeding us). The most important thing is that yes we have technology and especially in the west we think that removes us from natural forces. But it does not. The vast majority of humanity is fed by growing plants and we have been doing this with farming… Read more »
Martin ,I don’t think your panda analogy is accurate when weighted against the developing world (Africa and Asia) birth rates?
I quote a US fertility study:
“The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to treble in size to more than three billion people by 2100.
And the study says Nigeria will become the world’s second biggest country, with a population of 791 million.”
The irony is Jonathan, the Chinese introduced a 1 child per couple many decades ago, only to be treated with scorn and derision by the west. Some of the criticism they received, was from human rights activists.
Maybe they knew something more than the rest of us back then…
Yes they did they had just started to try repair the damage of the cultural revolution in which 20million or so chinese people starved to death. The one child policy was to prevent mass starvation at the time. I have never been a lover of the idea of human rights, as it’s all a social construct that does not work when it meets reality. If your in a desert with a group of people with no food and water where is the right to life. I only really believe in the concept of obligation. So we have an obligation to… Read more »
Jonathan, thanks for your detailed post , this is really interesting reading. On the Chinese population, I came across this: “China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4b in four years’ time before nearly halving to 732m by 2100.”
Hi Klondike, yes China is a really interesting case as it’s the only place that has had actual social modification of fertility and it worked very well indeed. But I’m not sure they will be able to revers it back due to increases wealth of the population. What is interesting is that it became more successful the greater the wealth and wellbeing of the population. As with first world countries it’s fertility dropped the wealthier it became. So if you go back about 10-20 years it’s fertility rates was about 1.7 ( which is what the U.K. is now) it’s… Read more »
Thanks again for the detailed reply Jonathan
Stop reading the daily mail, don’t worry and be happy. They have been saying the world is over populated since the 11century and all is still well.
I generally get my information from papers in peer reviewed scientific, public health, health care and risk management journals to be honest.
A… I fail to see the relevance that any fleet street publication, has with my post.
B… The world population of the 11th century was approximately 750 million.
C… You come across as a ‘live for now, bugger the future’ person. That be the case, good luck with that.
D… I have children, and whether you like it or not, the earth is buggered, and those children, as well as any offspring they may have, will be even more buggered.
Tom, the thing that keeps me trying with all my own green agenda is that the U.K. will be one of those places that should offer a good life to future generations. Most places above around 40 degrees North or south will be hotter but fine. But for the U.K. especially there is one final thing that will mean apart for the sea level rise we will suffer just about the least impact on the planet. Due to significant increase rainfall in the Northern hemisphere above about 40-50 degrees north. We are seeing significant desalination of the northern oceans, at… Read more »
There was a press conference with captured Russian aircrew earler today. One of the pilots was a Lt. Col. the commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment and who confessed to dropping bombs on residential areas. At one point the interviewer asked if they were aware of deficiencies in Russian equipment in aircraft notably ejector seats. She explained that of Russian aircraft shot down, 5 had seemingly failed to deploy parachutes / or the ejector seats had failed to operate. One of the pilots looked visibly shocked at this point. Then a mumbled a comment about it not being possible to… Read more »
I saw this picture of the crew of a downed Russian jet who had been captured by the Ukrainians and it had me asking, how did that happen:
I don’t favour sharing pictures of POWs but it looks like to me that the ejector seat has propelled him through the canopy before the canopy popped. Ouch.
Breaking: Ukraine claim they’ve got another General. Major General Andrei Kolesnikov, commander of the 29th army of the eastern military district killed today. The last times they made these claims they were proved correct. They either have a corpse or, more likely, radio intercepts. Ukraine are saying that Russia are bombing a village in Belarus as a false flag operation and that as a result Belarus will invade tonight at 2100hrs. If true this might be good news as a general revolution may break out in Belarus and the army mutiny. Russia made outrageous CBRN claims against Ukraine and the… Read more »
That’s 3 major generals in 2 weeks, I think that’s more than in the entire Syria campaign.
Rasputin claimed his army were on the borders of Ukraine for exercises and that he wasn’t going to invade. Only a total idiot would believe anything that came out of his regime.
Not sure if strategically that would be a wise move.
At least whilst they are making such claims others can see them for what they are.
Russian airpower seems to be the thing that could win this war for Putin. The Ukrainians certainly think so. A no fly zone seems to be ruled out so I wonder whether, with Sky Sabre coming into service with the British forces, we might consider sending Rapier systems to the theatre. Would add some range above that of Manpads like Stingers and Star Streak. Still only defensive…..
AAMat there is a lot of BS going on about defensive and offensive weaponry. We don’t need to announce it and do it anyway. There is no reason why Ukraine cant have Patriot in western Ukraine. If a Russki plane gets shot down he’s hardly going to have time to tell the Kremlin what hit him is he?
The issue will be training, anything beyond a Manpad needs a lot of training and logistic support. You can’t just dump a complex weapon system like Rapier onto a nation, without all the logistics and training in maintaining and using the weapon system.
Yes, training would be a problem. It won’t be easy and would probably be too late for the east of Ukraine. Might have time if deployed to protect airfields and other key infrastructure in the west. I just feel that if we won’t deploy aircraft then we should do all we can to beef up Ukrainian SAM defense. No easy choices in any war.
Apparently, according to the BBC, the Russians are asking for their own volunteers, are looking at the middle East (Syrians) and aiming to Arm them with captured Western AT and AA weapons. I can’t possibly see anything wrong with that at all.
Mmm they must have captured an awful lot then as they say 16000 are on their way.🙄 What does this say about the confidence Putin has in his own forces then?
It looks like he is bring in fighters from Syria and other hellish places where any form of restraint went out the window. This is not a good sign. It’s going to get even more difficult for other European nations to sit and watch. The question is how far will Europe let this go before interventions are made. Can we watch death squads, chemical or bio weapons being used. I think the NATO statement of no intervention unless a NATO nation is attacked was a red line set to far back and was self prescriptive of NATO actions and may… Read more »
Well if they bring in extremists which start beheading people on TV that would be another thing but I doubt the Russian propaganda campaign will allow that to be televised.
Are the Syrian or Iranians pretending to be Syrian? Putin needs to be told calmly, but firmly, that if he uses chemical weapons on Ukrainian civilians, all NATOs self imposed restraints will be dropped. If we say it, we have to mean it.
Unfortunately The US President has just come out and said there will be no action unless nato borders are breached…so that’s a “go and gas’s a few civilians” card issued by the ever so strong leadership of the US.
Can Biden please go to a sunny retirement. He clearly is not up to the job.
I was hoping we would get a bit of an old Cold War warrior statesman in Bidden…but I fear we have not.
Blinken for President. Today please.
Sleepy Joe Biden will not act on Ukraine until he can get his troops out of Vietnam
John Florida already has a crisis with Non Indigenous Snakes
,they don’t need another
Least worst option. Otherwise its KH. Dear God no!
👍 what else is left in the bottom of the Barrel John
Now apparently there is confirmed footage that Russia has lost 160 main battle tanks with Ukraine claiming destruction of a total of 355 (unconfirmed). That’s in a handful of days against a massively outnumbered and under resourced military ( lets be honest Ukraine has the best military it can and they have done wonders And been supported by the west but it’s still a very poor nation compared to NATO standards). This does raise a few questions. How many main battle tanks can Russia loose and still maintain its armoured formations. ? We know that Russian/ Soviet Designed tanks have… Read more »
Jonathon, interesting comments. I think it is all about doing combined arms operations properly. Combined arms is a hard thing to do, as the Russians are finding out. Interestingly, if you read about the early days of WW2, you’ll see that the Germans were not a tank heavy army but rather a RADIO heavy army. Just having lots of tanks doesn’t make you a battle winner. Having some tanks and using them properly with other arms does. The Ukrainians actually do have tanks and it seems are using them wisely. Many of these Russian tanks are being taken out by… Read more »
Interesting comment on WW2, what most people forget is during the fall of France, Germany actually had inferior armour to France and the U.K. ( a German mk1 was a joke tank and even MK2s and 3s were not up to facing most french tanks or British armour face to face….as you noted they won by combined arms and better tactical control of the armour they had. It does make we wonder if we need to really look at what will keep a main battle tank fighting and study the f%#k out of this to understand the place of a… Read more »
Disagree, Ukraine has a stronger army than UK and of many other NATO countries.
In hardware yes but not capabilities! It’s not just about numbers and many who have not served don’t seem to understand that! Look past the top trumps and see the range of capabilities which a modern military needs.
Exactly, the Ukrainian army was reported at roughly 170,000 however that includes admin etc so not just soldiers, real number if probably circa 120/125,000. However Ukraine like Russia also uses conscription so probably 60% of the numbers are effectively part time, part trained numbers. The Uk trained roughly 20,000 troops since 2014, assuming a number of those people will have since left the army as 2014 was some time back how many professional battle experienced troops does Ukraine have? Its the same problems Russia has. So yes on paper Ukraine has a lot of numbers but how many actual professional… Read more »
Thousands that have been fighting in Donbass since 2014.
How many is that then, 2,000, 20,000, 80,000?
The estimate is that the UkA had in the demarcation trench network, for most of the years since 2016, around 50,000 on average with up to half of them conscripts, depending on the numbers of the latter available. It increased to around 100, 000 last April, causing the mirror Russian build up. Then a further increase at the end of last year/start of this year to 120,000+ when the Russians attacked. That many of Ukraine’s most important units were part of that increase convinced Russia that the UkA was going to attack end Feb/start March. Hence it was an important… Read more »
No, yet again the reason the Russkie bandwagon struck first is that they wanted to finish the illegal invasion they started in 2014! Your continued justification for an illegal invasion is yet again more weak propaganda from a troll, who thinks an illegal invasion by a megalomaniac Nazi can be justified by having a neighbouring country, already invaded, building strong defence on its own soil! Do stop with the chuff you are now making yourself look even sillier than when before the invasion you stated Putin had no intentions to do so! And for the audience, any condemnation of Putins… Read more »
What forces exactly did the Ukraine have to worry Russia exactly? Any land force entering Russian territory would have zero chance without the capability to do a sustained long range bombardment into Russian areas first, which Ukraine does not posses. Im sorry but this narrative that Russia was threatened in any way is utter horse s**t and everyone can see through it. Even using Nato as a threat is complete bollocks whilst we are on the subject. Nato covers what, 5% of Russia’s land borders even if Ukraine joined that might be 6%, huge huge encirclement of Russian territory going… Read more »
Does MK stand for Moscow Kremlin?
Absolute rubbish. There has never been any threat posture by Ukraine or NATO towards Russia. NATO is a defensive alliance made up of countries with democratic governments and free populations. They border barely one sixteenth of Russia’s total border. It is Putins fear of democracy and freedom that made him and his cabal of Nazis attack Ukraine. Russia has been carrying out cyber and grey zone attacks on the west (Salisbury, Litvenenko), for many years. BTW JohninMK, do you ever feel like you are just another ‘useful idiot ‘ as Comrade Lenin put it ? The Nazis you are defending… Read more »
134 friends of Vlad puking own 40% of Russia’s wealth credit suisse has worked out that the average Russian earns less per month than an average Indian earns Posse
🙄
Delete/insert Russkies as well. Sounds like its becoming excuses excuses time.
Agreed mate, but I was also alluding to other capabilites which we have, not just the platforms, but the ability of the various platforms, in all 3 dimensions. Modern warfare isnt about numbers as we know, its about the ability to fuse together, over years of training the various arms, kit and capabilites, in order achieve the desired end state. For example, the use of various ISTAR assets, UAV, secure and burst comms, sats, EW assets, smart munitons and sensor fusion of platforms. And of course, which many ignore, is the skill set of the people involved.
Exactly alot of force multipliers exist within our and others equipment and training.
Russian piling tons of old tech equipment in is a blunt tactic and is slowly working but they have the numbers to sacrifice doing this.
We would operate in a different way to different results.
Agreed mate!
Let’s not make this more complicated than it really is. Putin is paranoid and as one Russian woman was quoted today, needs to go to therapy. Medical definition.
“paranoid personality disorder a personality disorder in which the patient views other people as hostile, devious, and untrustworthy and reacts in a combative manner to disappointments or to events that he or she considers rebuffs or humiliations”
All this Putin greater Russia history destiny stuff is the output of a sick mind.
Join up the dots…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22806866
Alex I’m talking about the complex advanced capabilities that only large amounts of dollars or pounds can buy. So the have a lot of soldiers under arms and armoured vehicles, but almost all the hardware is Soviet and from a 40-50 year old tec base. They also don’t have the same level of training as western forces. They are doing an amazing job and showing how important the will to fight is. But if Ukraine had even the defence budget of Poland which is around 3 times that of Ukraine, with a nation like the U.K. spending about 17-20 times… Read more »
Today at 15th of war British Army would be out of Challengers to fight, maybe it would remain a battalion or so.
British Army have no material depth. No reserve tanks for example.
That sounds like British Army age equipment.
Yes but in reality we don’t have a land borders Our defence has always been about sea and air… As for age of our stuff, challenger 2 is 24 years old not 40-50. Exactly how many Soviet made tanks were lost in the Iraq invasion vs western tanks and western forces that were a generation behind what we have now, but still completely destroyed a very large soviet high density low quality army ? Numbers only matter if they are in some way matched against capability. A single 2nd generation class British SSN essentially forced the entire Argentinian navy into… Read more »
Yes but that is with USA and other allied support, obviously the overmatch is enormous and in that circumstances an one sided combat chances increases several fold.
Now do a British Vs Iraq in Iraq and check what result would be.
UK vs Ukraine
Probable result is that the one on defence would win.
Let us know your country of origin then let’s talk about your home countries ability’s, defence expenditure and contribution to NATO. Always interesting to get others opinions on their own military organisations.
Pretty much a disaster but we still have tanks!
Then please let us know your country of origin so we can have a fruitful chat about relevant capabilities and operational commitments to previous, ongoing and future NATO operations. Every military can have its specialty and niche capabilities! And we all have tanks (even the Dutch are getting some back operational) 👍
Your missing the point Alex. The ground forces available to Iraq in 2003 were astronomical in numbers, Iraq had and army of 350,00, 20,000 paramilitary, 80,000 republican guard and around 900,000 reservists, within that you are looking at 2000-3000 tanks. On the US/U.K. side you had just shy of 200,000 and a few hundred MBTs. In the end the Coalition did not even use all its available forces. what makes the difference is very expensive up today modern capability. If an armed forces cannot fight in all domains including EW and intelligence, numbers become meaningless and in Iraq they were… Read more »
Agreed about the material depth, but its not about numbers (only those with no military or combat experience think like that) its about the full range of capabilites, and the ability to fuse those capabilites into an effective, well trained, combined arms force, capable of independant action with the C3 to ensure it happens.
You can only be holistic with numbers otherwise we are talking about specops, and when all the meat are in the grinder are not decisive.
If 100 Challenger II are damaged , 15 destroyed and 30 with faulty equipment. There is only less than 100 remaining. There is not much you can do about that.
You can only do an offensive if there are tools for that.
Like I said numbers matter but a professional military work past the numbers, and use TTPs, to ensure you mitigate your weakness and push to your advantage. You will always lose people and platforms in war, it’s a case of how many, and how often, prior to you achieving the mission! And as you are from Western Europe you are fully aware no NATO country will fight alone in a peer conflict so the subject is moot! Countries play to their strengths, mitigate weakness and have niche capabilities they bring to the team table!
Interesting use of Bn, the Brits use the term armoured Regiment for tanks and leave the term Bn for the Infantry!
I am not British but i am from Western Europe.
It has been proved time and time again that the size of a defence budget is a better guide to military strength than raw numbers……
Number have quality of their own, if there are no material reserves you have only one thing remaining: Infantry
Agreed to an extent, but also there is more than the land dimension we operate in, and its about the ability of operating together effectively. Numbers do have a quality of there own agreed, but at the moment the Russkie numbers are just targets.
Looks to me that infantry are doing quite well at the moment against ‘vastly’ superior armour!
That depends what “well” means, they are giving a bloddy nose to the Russians, but are not conquering their country back. At distance they seems to be loosing slowly.
Like Churchill said after Dunkirk : wars are not won by successful evacuations.
We also don’t know how Ukranians are using their armored forces, we have bias toward what appears in videos: Infantry(with ATGW) and drones.
Have the Russians actually conquered anything apart from the roads towards their objectives? I would hazard a guess and say most Ukrainians in the ‘conquered’ territory have not even seen a Russian yet! And I did say “at the moment” with what they were managing to do.
Even having trouble with the roads 😂👍!
See reports that a village was bombed by aircraft just across the border in Belarus, how long now till its army starts steaming South?
Id guess on a more western trajectory towards Lutsk or Rivne to try draw Ukraines forces away from outside Kiev so they have little chance of countering when Russia circles the main city.
I keep hearing in the news that Russian forces are surrounding Kiev and other cities. I do pray and hope that the Ukrainian people are as well armed as possible and ready to take on and demolish the approaching Russian forces. I hope there is some UkAF being held back for more strategic time to strike. It’s absolutely digusting seeing what the Russian’s are doing to Ukraine and it’s people. What a completely amoral and evil lot the Russian leadership are. Sorry to say this, but may they go through the doors of hell of their own making! Strength and… Read more »
Absolutely Quentin, the push into Kiev has started and the lead Russian elements have been severely mauled. The Ukrainians are following the text book of how to counter Russian tactics. They have prepared extensive defence in depth, with well thought out killing zones, other elements have formed smaller highly mobile battle groups, hitting the Russian supply columns hard and running, before any artillery counter strike or air strikes can be mounted… The fact is the Ukrainians have a solid base of growing support, well financed and supported by the West…. Russia is degrading its conventional capability by the day and… Read more »
Putin may not get a face saving option. Zelensky has just reported that 600 Russians were captured yesterday. If , and it’s a big IF, correct then it may signal the beginning of the end. If these are desertions rather than a surrounded unit then that means the moral of the Russian force is crumbling. Once that starts it is very hard to stop and forces can implode very rapidly. Think what happened to the Argentine conscripts around Stanley.
It depends how many more he is going to force into the same situation.
Russia has a lot of reserves and alot of conscripts he can call upon. Plus as hes hiring mercenaries that would be alot more on top.
I wonder who do these conscripts fear the most Ukrainian troops/Civilian defence forces or Russian Army/ FSB rear echelon blocking force? Rob
Suicide!
Don’t want too put a,downer on the way the world is going ,but does anyone think that whoever deciphered the Gliffs of the Mayan calender got the date wrong by 10 years not 2012but 2022 ?
A US maker of bomb shelters, says his orders from the top 1%, have just gone skyward in the last month.
Someone ,Somewhere, seems too be erring on the side of Caution or its a good marketing ploy from a once dwindling building Idea NBCD shelters in the UK most were sold off ,And then converted into Huge scale Cannabis farms whoops John
$70k to $250k ex factory, if you want one in your garden.
JOHN, When I was a young whippasnapprr, used too play in the Anderson shelter in our Back garden in Colindale NW London not a very gas or Radiation proof build though PS your not on a commission are you ?
50p & a bottle of Tizer would buy me. Sadly, nobody offers.
Following Biden’s statement last night that the USA would not fight the Russians in Ukraine because it would mean WW3 (debateable) Al Jazeera is now (1350 hrs GMT) reporting that an advanced Russian column of 1500 troops has crossed the Moldova border and is establishing a bridgehead inside.
Well it seems to me that WW3 has already started. Expect another Biden refusal to fight – or set up the NFZ – or let the Ukrainians have the Polish MiG29’s.
Considering the last known movement of Russian forces was still East of Odessa it would be interesting to know how they have managed to sneak 1500 troops all the way to the Moldovan border?
They were already in Transnistria. Another ‘breakaway’ republic.
So Putin is now threatening western arms shipments as legitimate targets.
Are the arms shipped in by any form of western forces or simply dropped at the border and collected by the Ukrainians?
If they hit a shipment and its still in western hands that would be making things a very grey area of attacking a Nato member.
if he did attack them I suppose it depends on who has control of them at the time. If it’s a British or other NATO armed forces logistics team then that’s an article five infringement.
Im guessing the UK or US would not have logistics teams running these into Ukraine as even if logistics only that would technically be committing forces into Ukraine itself?
If he did he an arms convoy controlled by Ukraine itself but say for example still on the Polish side of the border would that then be an attack on a Nato member?
Putin really does seem to want to push this situation to the limits with Nato.
In theory it would be if he launched a military attack on polish soil. But in reality the use of a chemical weapon in Salisbury was as well and we and nato did nothing. I don’t think he would chance it but, let’s be honest Biden is spending as much energy on telling everyone that NATO ( AKA the US will not fight a war with russia). Putin is going to take that as a sign of weakness and permission to push.
It’s very simple. You just have a series of Ukrainian cars running back and forth into Poland or where ever and then filling up the boot and delivering into Ukraine. The Russians will get some but not many.
A sort of Dale boy trotter version of logistics with advanced anti tank weapons.
And manpads. Whilst it is just hand held missiles it’s easy. When they need bulk artillery ammunition and rations it becomes more complicated.
Not only that the basic high bulk stuff, they must be burning through bullets and food and fuel as the cities become shattered potable water will become a logistic nightmare as well.
But a right hand drive bright yellow 3 wheeler will stick out like a sore thumb Johnathan
You know what they say, always hide in plain sight…no one expects trotters independence traders….
It’s bound too upset the BBCs Prop dept remember the BBC is a Nonadvertising Corporation Johnathan
luvly jubbly Jonathan! Perhaps Mr Bean can join in his mini?
That’s more like it Klonkie won’t stick out either 🚙
👌
I think it’s been talked about on here before but there’s an interesting film on youtube about Russian ERA. Search Russian tanks substandard equipment in Ukraine, [as relating to the ERA]
Seen, very interesting if correct!
This is worth a read. It’s why NATOS present stance with Russia is not geopolitically tenable and is weakening western liberal democracies. A good read. Basically because NATO will not countenance Escalation and conflict with Russia it’s trapped in an almost Geopolitical Negative feedback loop of retreating red lines and influence.
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/03/time-for-nato-to-find-a-way-out-of-the-escalation-trap-in-ukraine
Seems to me that OP ORBITAL has been very successful. From the various clips I’ve seen the Uks are doing everything from dash, down crawl observe sights fire right up to classic L shaped Pl anti armour ambushes. If their moral and logistics remain in place they will cause the Russians many more casualties.
Jeremy Hunt calling for our defence budget to rise
to 4% of GDP, while the Treasury are arguing that defence has already had a big uplift.
4% is cloud cuckoo land territory. I doubt we’ll get much at all, maybe up to 2.5% if we’re lucky.
Jeremy Quinn has said the MOD is trying to fast track PIP for the T45s. Hope that happens and they get the Sea Ceptor upgrade at the same time, too late for Dauntless though, she’ll have to go back in another time.
I’m not sure Rob, the US can find that sort of percentage and they are crippled with a 15-17% spend on health on top of that. Germany has found 100billion of capitalisation on top of getting its defence spend to 2% per year.
We are a vastly wealthy nation and can afford what we need to do if we are willing and the word is willing. For myself if a nation is not willing to defend itself then it will always end up subservient to another.
Very different politics over in the US. Congress often argues for more defence spending than the White House requests, they did last year. Varying reasons for that, with many wanting to look tough on defence and threats, while others are trying to ensure that big employers in their state get contracts. There isn’t the same push over here. Some have come out and said we need a big increase but not enough to force the agenda. As I said, I expect there will be something so it looks like we are responding to the situation but I can’t see a… Read more »
A few billions for the “capability gaps” is the best we can hope for. One or two batteries of high end SAM (Aegis Ashore/THAAD/Arrow/SAMP-T, any of those), a small buy of Marte ER for Typhoon, LRASM for P-8, fitting Camm-ER to T26/31. More Boxer variants (Cockerill 105 + Oerlikon Skyranger). Plus not cut the Army so much.
I will be very happy if I’m wrong but I can’t see us getting funding for all that, including ballistic missile defence, although perhaps for T45. Let’s see!
Watching Skynews a Breaking story needs confirmation yhat the Russian have just used either Phosphorus Bombs or Shells in the East of the Ukraine if so and its correct then it’s a War Crime Putin
Is this invasion the worst most inept shambles of the past150 years poor troops faulty equipment an airforce unable to gain air superiority no grasp of logistics, a plan typically the same as Russia has always used NATO would rip the Russians to pieces, and I think they know it
To be honest Andy, Putin forget one really important rule. Invading other nations has not really ended well in Europe since around about the enlightenment.
Andy, from the footage I’ve seen many of these Russians wouldn’t get a British Army Cadet Proficiency Certificate. One tank front with no infantry clearing patrols, no radio procedure and junior leadership which is at best hopeless. If this cluster goes into a FIBUA environment they are going to get their clock cleaned in no short order.
Some cultural background…
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pope-the-patriarchs-and-the-battle-to-save-ukraine
This is an interesting RUSI article in comms and EW weakness in the Russian forces invading Ukraine and how the Ukraine armed forces could exploit this.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-comms-ukraine-world-hertz