Witnesses told the House of Lords that Britain’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) must be fully funded and strategically focused if the UK is to meet the growing security challenges posed by deepening military cooperation between Russia and China.
Dr Sophy Antrobus of King’s College London said the UK has no credible alternative to continued participation in international fighter programmes.
“If we did not have the F-35 programme, we would not have a fifth-generation aircraft, end of,” she told the International Relations and Defence Committee. “If we did not have a fifth-generation aircraft, we would not be learning quite a lot that is helping us in the development of a sixth-generation aircraft in the Global Combat Air Programme.”
She warned that leaving such programmes would effectively relegate Britain to a lower tier within NATO, arguing that “there is not an equivalent alternative” and that the UK must choose either to remain fully engaged or accept reduced global influence.
Dr Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute said the coming decade poses “an acute period of risk” as Russia expands its military despite heavy losses in Ukraine. He said European states need to close gaps in ammunition and airpower to avoid overreliance on US intervention in any future crisis.
Looking further ahead, Bronk said GCAP’s success will depend on sustained investment. “You need to do this programme properly,” he said, estimating the cost at “£80 to £100 billion between the three partner nations by 2030.” He added that the project would return much of its value to the UK economy through domestic industry.
Japan, he noted, would likely drive the programme’s most advanced capabilities because of its proximity to China. “The counter-air capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army today are almost incomparably greater than Russia’s,” he said, predicting that Chinese weapons and sensors would eventually proliferate to Russian forces.
“By the 2030s and 2040s, when Tempest enters service, we must expect to be facing Russians carrying Chinese weapons, Chinese sensors and probably Chinese tactics and training,” he said.
Bronk warned that any major conflict involving either Russia or China would heighten the risk of the other acting. “If China and the United States end up in a clash over Taiwan, the US will pull capability out of Europe,” he said. “The Chinese are likely to put pressure on the Russians to create trouble in eastern Europe to split attention. Equally, if war breaks out between Russia and NATO, the Chinese might decide that they will never get a better chance to go for Taiwan.”
He concluded that the two threats must be seen as interlinked and that GCAP, alongside broader European rearmament, must be treated as a strategic priority if the UK is to deter aggression in both theatres.
Makes you proud to know there are people who have an ability to “State the bleeding obvious”.
And sadly, there are people who lack the backbone to do anything about it.
Bloody Crustaceans !!!!! Spineless lot 🦀🦀🦀😁😁😁
The thing is I don’t think it’s that obvious to many people.. a lot of people seem to think china is as it was 30 years ago, capable of making plastic toys and bad electrical equipment.. and the concept of conflagration of a pacific war to a European war or a European war to a pacific war is not on a lot of peoples radars..
Although chinas actions will very much depend on how it sees the likelihood of actions against it from others… if it thinks the U.S. was definitely going to step in and support Taiwan there is a possibility it may simply go full strategic suprise and try an knock the US back to the second island chain.. if it thinks the US could be made to back off it may simply go for a strangulation of Taiwan and see where that goes, if it thinks the U.S. will leave Taiwan to its fate it will simply invade Taiwan and not touch the U.S.. but if there is a U.S. sino war china will make judgments on how likely it is other groups will support the US as to its actions.. if it thinks Europe will get involved it will strike into the western Indian Ocean and stir Russia to move on the Baltics. It will stir the pot in Africa.. get Iran to take its shot etc and if it thinks South Korea is going to get involved it will unleash North Korea.
Don’t you be worrying mate, We’ll soon be having carrier launched “Sea Tempests” armed with plastic recycling bins full of Chinese Tat, unloading over Shanghai.
“Made in China, returned to sender”
It will be a lot more calculated than Mad Vlad’s UKR excursion. They will have learned a lot from that: mainly that all of Mad Vlad’s wonder weapons were useless!
That said they are clearly going for overmatch ratios of ships etc and will expect and accept taking a lot of hits. Otherwise why build so many?
As I have posted many times they will encourage their ‘allies’ to stir the pot a lot. I am not sure that Iran will risk stirring the pot again after the thumping they do from Isreal and others.
NK may have a lot of people but even the crazy little guy wouldn’t risk invading SK and I cannot see that NK with even worse conventional kit than Russia would risk a well equipped SK. I also don’t see NK lasting very long against SK as the overmatch is there in the way it wasn’t there for UKR as SK have a real proper airforce. You look at the NK tactics against drones and that tells you a lot about their military thinking.
Makes a change from those actually making the decisions, which only highlights just how delusional or distracting they are in their language and tactics.
Too true. And if the threat level is likely to intensify in the next 2-5 year period isn’t the purchasing of additional Typhoons and or upgrading more a “bleeding obvious ” sensible choice to complement the F35Bs. And where are GBAD even more Shorad for the UK at? Production is running hot for Ukraine, is there anything for thr UK?
Any news of any orders to offset the last 15 years or endless cuts?
GCAP needs to prepare for Trump’s push with Japan as well.
Big change from Justin Bronk, two years ago he was all for cancelling GCAP in favour of a big buy of AMRAAM missiles and American aircraft.
Luckily we didn’t take his expert opinion then.
I never liked his singing either.
I agree we need to go full in especially with the very high probability that FCAS will go down in flames. Although I believe the French could go it alone technically, I doubt the French have the depth of pockets to develop a 6th gen jet.
The utterly patently obvious is that Tempest( GCAP) gives the UK a moment of choice, fund it properly and virtually capture the market on 6th gen sales or get off the pot and stop kidding everyone the UK is serious about defence. Because if we walk away from this, we clearly are not!
Yes, exactly, been saying this for ages now, Tempest has huge potential and It’s exactly the sort of business we are trying hard to generate.
Lets hope It does corner the market and lets hope we don’t forget to order any for us !
If there’s a naval Tempest the UK might need buy a PA-NG! Half joshing. And there’s likely be some “friendly” competition from the F47 when that eventuates.
A tad ironically the only outside chance of cancellation would likely be from Farage who might get instructions from his ‘Daddy’ to stop cooperating with US competitors and EU countries and save money to pay to his business mates tax reductions and get a ‘special deal’ on US aircraft instead truly selling out UK independence. I fear when Reform get in it will be all about personal grandisement and wealth either side of the pond so dodgy bit coin scams it will be. I’m sure Farage will be put in touch with the bit coin billionaire criminal Trump just pardoned so that he can do the same for Farage as he did for the Trump juniors.
God I hope they dont cock this up, I got so excited when they first announced the Tempest programme.
I think the Japanese will help there, they are not only experts on all manner of process, electronic and systems tech but did a damn good job of improving the F-16 substantially as an airframe and learned a lot in the process. Our weaknesses are where they are strong and hopefully our technology strengths will gain from their efficiencies in development and production.
Hope so! Honestly, if I was a stinking rich tech guy, I’d actually buy alot of toys for Ukraine and the UK military.
The way the world is going, it might be prudent to be ready to fight anyone – and I mean anyone.
Agree, nearly went war with the US in the thirties when a similar movement to the present one was growing strong, WW2 rather stopped and historically obscured all that. More importantly though is a very possible self destruction of the US and serious civil war, meaning a whole range of others could well take advantage and think Europe is a soft touch to strike at.
Cancel everything and give all our money to third world countries, oh, silly me, they are all here or on their way.