Witnesses told the House of Lords that Britain’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) must be fully funded and strategically focused if the UK is to meet the growing security challenges posed by deepening military cooperation between Russia and China.
Dr Sophy Antrobus of King’s College London said the UK has no credible alternative to continued participation in international fighter programmes.
“If we did not have the F-35 programme, we would not have a fifth-generation aircraft, end of,” she told the International Relations and Defence Committee. “If we did not have a fifth-generation aircraft, we would not be learning quite a lot that is helping us in the development of a sixth-generation aircraft in the Global Combat Air Programme.”
She warned that leaving such programmes would effectively relegate Britain to a lower tier within NATO, arguing that “there is not an equivalent alternative” and that the UK must choose either to remain fully engaged or accept reduced global influence.
Dr Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute said the coming decade poses “an acute period of risk” as Russia expands its military despite heavy losses in Ukraine. He said European states need to close gaps in ammunition and airpower to avoid overreliance on US intervention in any future crisis.
Looking further ahead, Bronk said GCAP’s success will depend on sustained investment. “You need to do this programme properly,” he said, estimating the cost at “£80 to £100 billion between the three partner nations by 2030.” He added that the project would return much of its value to the UK economy through domestic industry.
Japan, he noted, would likely drive the programme’s most advanced capabilities because of its proximity to China. “The counter-air capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army today are almost incomparably greater than Russia’s,” he said, predicting that Chinese weapons and sensors would eventually proliferate to Russian forces.
“By the 2030s and 2040s, when Tempest enters service, we must expect to be facing Russians carrying Chinese weapons, Chinese sensors and probably Chinese tactics and training,” he said.
Bronk warned that any major conflict involving either Russia or China would heighten the risk of the other acting. “If China and the United States end up in a clash over Taiwan, the US will pull capability out of Europe,” he said. “The Chinese are likely to put pressure on the Russians to create trouble in eastern Europe to split attention. Equally, if war breaks out between Russia and NATO, the Chinese might decide that they will never get a better chance to go for Taiwan.”
He concluded that the two threats must be seen as interlinked and that GCAP, alongside broader European rearmament, must be treated as a strategic priority if the UK is to deter aggression in both theatres.
Makes you proud to know there are people who have an ability to “State the bleeding obvious”.
And sadly, there are people who lack the backbone to do anything about it.
Bloody Crustaceans !!!!! Spineless lot 🦀🦀🦀😁😁😁
The thing is I don’t think it’s that obvious to many people.. a lot of people seem to think china is as it was 30 years ago, capable of making plastic toys and bad electrical equipment.. and the concept of conflagration of a pacific war to a European war or a European war to a pacific war is not on a lot of peoples radars..
Although chinas actions will very much depend on how it sees the likelihood of actions against it from others… if it thinks the U.S. was definitely going to step in and support Taiwan there is a possibility it may simply go full strategic suprise and try an knock the US back to the second island chain.. if it thinks the US could be made to back off it may simply go for a strangulation of Taiwan and see where that goes, if it thinks the U.S. will leave Taiwan to its fate it will simply invade Taiwan and not touch the U.S.. but if there is a U.S. sino war china will make judgments on how likely it is other groups will support the US as to its actions.. if it thinks Europe will get involved it will strike into the western Indian Ocean and stir Russia to move on the Baltics. It will stir the pot in Africa.. get Iran to take its shot etc and if it thinks South Korea is going to get involved it will unleash North Korea.
Don’t you be worrying mate, We’ll soon be having carrier launched “Sea Tempests” armed with plastic recycling bins full of Chinese Tat, unloading over Shanghai.
“Made in China, returned to sender”
It will be a lot more calculated than Mad Vlad’s UKR excursion. They will have learned a lot from that: mainly that all of Mad Vlad’s wonder weapons were useless!
That said they are clearly going for overmatch ratios of ships etc and will expect and accept taking a lot of hits. Otherwise why build so many?
As I have posted many times they will encourage their ‘allies’ to stir the pot a lot. I am not sure that Iran will risk stirring the pot again after the thumping they do from Isreal and others.
NK may have a lot of people but even the crazy little guy wouldn’t risk invading SK and I cannot see that NK with even worse conventional kit than Russia would risk a well equipped SK. I also don’t see NK lasting very long against SK as the overmatch is there in the way it wasn’t there for UKR as SK have a real proper airforce. You look at the NK tactics against drones and that tells you a lot about their military thinking.
The thing about NK is more the fact NK is a short landbridge to china.. china has a lot of army it’s got little use for other than essentially if SK put its foot wrong punishing it, would get a load of NK brainwashed brigades essentially soaking up its defences.. but I suspect china would have a hell of a lot of ground and tactical air ready to make the threat real.. for china though the game would be keeping SK out of any fight not giving NK its head..
China focuses its amphibious training on army groups 71,72,73, 78, 79,80 ( each army group has 6 combined arms brigades and six support brigades ( for about 60,000 men per army group).
That leaves army groups 74,75, 76, 77. 81, 82, 84 as pure land warfare.. so 42 combined arms brigades ( each with 7 teeth battalions and 3 CSS) which it can use to intimidate anyone that it can reach by land.
It’s also got a 6 brigade marine which is focusing on expeditionary warfare..
What happens if they all jump up and down at once?
A really large poorly timed Mexican wave.
So only a Mexican one then, not a really big fuck off one…Phew thank God for that…as I can’t swim.
It’s only the Russians that have the capacity to make a really big wave apparently ( well so they say )
I was curious as to the others were that were thumping Iran And their houthi puppets… Was it the “great Satan”?
Yup, it was the US.
The USN and USAF carried out a strike on three Iranian nuclear sites using bunker busting weapons. B2 bombers were the main offensive assets deployed with F35 and F22 apparently deployed to suppress any SAM batteries that might have been silly enough to switch on, as it was there were reportedly no SAM launches…
I remember Trump made quite a noise about it at the time.
Cheers CR
Maybe I am being naive but I truly think China will never go after Taiwan in a hot war (diplomatically is another story). A contested amphibious assault on Taiwan, not to mention urban warfare in Taipei, even with the overwhelming numerical and technological advantage the PRC has, would be an absolute bloodbath. I really think the regime in China is far more patient than that, and would not want to deal with the public reaction to seeing tens of thousands of their boys coming home in body bags. That’s to say nothing of the economic ramifications.
I think it suits China to keep Taiwan, Japan and the US guessing as it ties them down, but in reality I don’t think the Chinese are as mindlessly belligerent and impatient as the Russians are.
There are a number of huge red flags that say they will unfortunately. For one thing they have been preparing their population in the general instructions coming out of the CCP.. because of how China works it tends to essentially tell its population what to expect. It’s best to not think of China as a normal nation that’s the mistake many make.. China is nothing more or less than the CCP its purpose in existence is to increase and expand the political power of the CCP.. wealth, happiness all the things guide western nations are essentially not relevant to the CCP.. if returning to an agrarian economy would increase the political power of the CCP, 1.3 billion Chinese would be eating rice… remember Xi is a product of the cultural revolution.. he was transported to a village to be a peasant escaped back to the city, was arrested sent to hard labour ( re education) and after that went back to his assigned village and became the best most effective party member.. he’s a true believer as most are in China.. the cultural revolution killed 20 million Chinese and they are OK about that as an experiment that did not achieve its goals.. so if we consider:
1) a society that believes in complete political control of the CCP as its only goal.
2) is willing to accept 10 of millions of deaths to ensure this political control.
3) firmly states it must reunite with Taiwan no matter the cost and the hard deadline is 2045.. a political message it’s been feeding its population for almost 80 years
4) tells its population it must be prepares for all our war by 2027
5) in 2020 tells its army that its primary goal is fighting and winning a war.. when for the previous 75 years its primary goal was supporting political warfare.
6) accepted the loss of about 1-2% of growth per year over a decade to harden it’s economy against war.
7) has essentially undertaken the largest expansion of maritime and naval building capacity in history over a 10 year period…to the point some of it is laughable in it’s unstable approach.. who needs the capability to build 200 nuclear submarines in 25 years.. because that is the capacity China has build.
8) blatantly practices every year the details of how it’s going to attack it’s enemies including blatant first day of the war strategic surprise.
It essentially far far more than the third Reich ever did in the 1930s as well as the fact the third Reich keep lying..China is utterly honest in telling everyone “we will take Taiwan and we will take it by any means and if anyone gets in our way in anyway we will go to war with them.. the have even laid out the timetable not before 2027 and not after 2045 with the aim to essentially fight anyone on equal footing anywhere by 2035.. they even helpfully show everyone the difference ways they may do it every year.. essentially China has put everyone on notice.. step away or suffer the consequences because we are doing this one way or another and are perfectly happy to take all the consequences.
What you are essentially describing is a pretty effect means of intimidation, deterrence if you like. For a nation the size of China and with the level of political control you describe anyone planning on getting in their way has either got to be very big and well armed or certifiably nuts. It is no wonder that China’s neighbours are keen to get along with them if they can possibly manage it, if not they face subjugation by one means or another. Not a pleasant prospect.
We in the West need to take heed or we will surely face the same difficult set of choices in the not too distant future. My nightmare scenario is Chinese troops or submarines, for example, based in Russia west of the Ural mountains i.e. in Europe. I can see the possibility happening if China decides Russia needs weapons and support against Ukraine / eNATO. The most likely first step would be the deployment of ‘advisors’ to help the Russians get the best out of any Chinese weapons. There are already allegedly Chinese mercenaries fighting in Russia’s war and I don’t believe they would be there without a nod from the CCP. In short, China is already giving more support to Russia than she is admitting to. So if I was being really pessimistic I would argue Chinese troops are already fighting as part of Russia’s army. Although not quite the same as the German Condor Legion in Spain’s Civil War the likelihood of CCP knowledge and probable support for Chinese mercenaries in the Russian Army demonstrates a similar level of determination to ensure that their preferred side in the war can stay the course.
Not good news for the West and it underlines the fact that Russia alone is not the enemy, the CRINK Axis is the big threat in the coming years and as you say within the next 5 to 10 years the threat may get very real indeed.
Cheers CR
Hello mate, hope you are well.
The CRINK Axis – my favourite drum. Axis is a good description of the grouping as it is not an alliance despite what is said in the mainstream press. Alliances come with responsibilities, a la NATO, and the CRINK nations are not in the business of taking responsibility for the actions of each other as they are all well aware that they are each only concerned with their own self interests. It just so happens that enough of those interests sufficiently align that it is worth their while to collaborate and support each other when it suits. There was another historical Axis which behaved similarly and they were quite capable, and did on more than one occasion, let each other down when it suited them.
There are significant similarities between the nations of the CRINK group of countries and the Nazis led Axis of the 1930’s and ’40’s. So it is not an unreasonable concern about the possibility of apparently separate conflicts in the East and West involving CRINK countries ending up morphing into a single global conflict, after all that is exactly how WW2 evolved from a series of ‘local’ if large conflicts into a global conflagration of horrendous scale and savagery. We in the West often overlook the suffering that occurred in the Eastern theatre but many estimates these suggest that the loses due to displacement of populations and wide spread bombing could well run into the tens of millions and possibly over 100 million… add that to the suffering in the West! Horrific!
The shocking truth is that WW3 might actually have already actively started in Ukraine and we could also reasonably argue that the ‘grey zone’ warfare being carried out by CRINK Axis members are disturbingly similar, if using modern tools, to the destabilising political campaign that Hitler initiated in the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia…
It all comes down to Levi’s point; will China go into a ‘hot war’ to regain Taiwan? Traditionally China has been very patient and taken the long view applying it’s strategy of war by other means. Ten years ago I would have been inclined to agree with Levi, but now I think things are changing because Xi is very different to his predecessors. Not only does he probably have more control over the Chinese Communist Party than any previous leader but he is also in more of a hurry. It seems he wants to go down in history as the leader who restored China as the single greatest power on earth and an united China would be a big first step from a geopolitical perspective.
As you rightly point out there are a number of scenarios that could lead to a direct confrontation between the US and China. If that happens, and I think the risks of that happening are greater now than ever before, then each of them will likely look to their ‘allies’ for support at which point we will all be staring into a very frightening future indeed.
The only way to avoid such a horrendous scenario is to deter the CRINK Axis effectively and that can only be done with sufficient conventional military capability to make it obvious to all that another world war would be pointless in the extreme with little or no chance of anyone coming out of it with any kind of meaningful benefit or advantage – and just to be clear I am NOT talking about nuclear weapons here (although they are always the ever present and frightening nightmare scenario). I am talking about conventional power not now, but 10, 20 or more years from now, because the CRINK nations are arming themselves far quicker than the West, especially China, and if we do not react properly and soon we risk not being able to effectively deter them. And that is the surest way to bring about World War 3.
So rearmament is just some unfortunate add on to the national budget, it could well be key to our survival as independent countries and the avoidance of countless more names carved in stone… Our politicians, government ministers and senior military commander, need to get their heads around the fact that the geopolitical landscape is changing fast, and not to our best interests, and they are lagging behind big time.
Cheers CR
CR and Jonathan – thank you for the interesting replies
Hi Levi,
You are most welcome. Your original post triggered a thought process… 🙂
Jonathan is the real China expert on here and his posts are always thought provoking and authoritative. We would do well to take note…
Cheers CR
As long as his posts are only authoritative and not authoritarian….
They are neither authoritarian nor authoritative..
Makes a change from those actually making the decisions, which only highlights just how delusional or distracting they are in their language and tactics.
Too true. And if the threat level is likely to intensify in the next 2-5 year period isn’t the purchasing of additional Typhoons and or upgrading more a “bleeding obvious ” sensible choice to complement the F35Bs. And where are GBAD even more Shorad for the UK at? Production is running hot for Ukraine, is there anything for thr UK?
Certainly in the short term, I would be fully upgraded our Tranche 2 and 3 Thypoons to full Tranche 4 standard. I would also buy the 24 Spanish surplus Trance 2’s and do the same.
I would be expanding the F35 fleet, buying 90 B models to fully support 4 squadrons and buying a similar number of F35A, again to build 4 squadrons and fully fund Tempest to get it moving as fast as possible.
Get a loyal wingman locked down and ordered adap to work between them all and a capable GBAD to protect the IK and overseas bases.
Declare 5% defence spending straight away and just get the hell on with it….
Yeah, whatever happened to that? Five 5% defense spending that you gave promised Trump…
What’s a Thypoon.. is that like a really posh typhoon 😂😂
Someone has to tell the UK population of the scenarios and why we are effectively a doubling Defence spending and show signs its happening.
Any news of any orders to offset the last 15 years or endless cuts?
The Defence Investment Plan is to be published in “Autumn” although yesterday the Defence Secretary wouldn’t confirm that, just waffled on about nothing as usual.
👍
GCAP needs to prepare for Trump’s push with Japan as well.
Big change from Justin Bronk, two years ago he was all for cancelling GCAP in favour of a big buy of AMRAAM missiles and American aircraft.
Luckily we didn’t take his expert opinion then.
I never liked his singing either.
I agree we need to go full in especially with the very high probability that FCAS will go down in flames. Although I believe the French could go it alone technically, I doubt the French have the depth of pockets to develop a 6th gen jet.
The utterly patently obvious is that Tempest( GCAP) gives the UK a moment of choice, fund it properly and virtually capture the market on 6th gen sales or get off the pot and stop kidding everyone the UK is serious about defence. Because if we walk away from this, we clearly are not!
Yes, exactly, been saying this for ages now, Tempest has huge potential and It’s exactly the sort of business we are trying hard to generate.
Lets hope It does corner the market and lets hope we don’t forget to order any for us !
If there’s a naval Tempest the UK might need buy a PA-NG! Half joshing. And there’s likely be some “friendly” competition from the F47 when that eventuates.
This is one of hottest takes but I firmly believe PANG will never see the light of day, beyond snazzy rendering on PowerPoints. It’s not forecast to commence build until 2031 and France is absolutely and unequivocally bankrupt.
Should have carried on with pa-2 carrier, they would have gotten two for less than 1 Pang. Even if they get pang they will only get 1.
A tad ironically the only outside chance of cancellation would likely be from Farage who might get instructions from his ‘Daddy’ to stop cooperating with US competitors and EU countries and save money to pay to his business mates tax reductions and get a ‘special deal’ on US aircraft instead truly selling out UK independence. I fear when Reform get in it will be all about personal grandisement and wealth either side of the pond so dodgy bit coin scams it will be. I’m sure Farage will be put in touch with the bit coin billionaire criminal Trump just pardoned so that he can do the same for Farage as he did for the Trump juniors.
God I hope they dont cock this up, I got so excited when they first announced the Tempest programme.
I think the Japanese will help there, they are not only experts on all manner of process, electronic and systems tech but did a damn good job of improving the F-16 substantially as an airframe and learned a lot in the process. Our weaknesses are where they are strong and hopefully our technology strengths will gain from their efficiencies in development and production.
Hope so! Honestly, if I was a stinking rich tech guy, I’d actually buy alot of toys for Ukraine and the UK military.
The way the world is going, it might be prudent to be ready to fight anyone – and I mean anyone.
Agree, nearly went war with the US in the thirties when a similar movement to the present one was growing strong, WW2 rather stopped and historically obscured all that. More importantly though is a very possible self destruction of the US and serious civil war, meaning a whole range of others could well take advantage and think Europe is a soft touch to strike at.
Cancel everything and give all our money to third world countries, oh, silly me, they are all here or on their way.
Didn’t see you here in 2021/2022 when the numbers were almost as high. But then again, back then you didn’t have Nigel/Elon/Donald telling you how doomed we all are, and your iPhone algorithm wasn’t quite so overtly marketing the doom and gloom.
Yes we get migrants and the sino/Russians overtake their countries it great.
Since they like to talk about the need for the aircraft, why don’t they order more in the first place instead of spending all this time talking.
So according to Bronk, and to “do this programme properly,” he estimates that it will cost the UK £30+ billion by 2030. With the UK currently bankrupt, where does this fekin eegit suggest we get the money from?
These ‘theorists’… well lets just say what utter balderdash!
I hold out hope this is the one part of the defence budget they will see as “first on the team sheet” so to speak. UK has already spent £2bn and apparently budgeted another £12bn out to 2030. Italy has committed 1.8bn euros with Japan’s number being lumped in with their $104bn aircraft spend over 10 years, not to mention hundreds of millions from industry itself. The money is being put up, let’s hope it continues.
So ‘some’ of the money has been ‘put up’ but at what cost? Considering the defence budget is only £60 billion or so, and the fact that UK government’s are forever chopping, hacking and slashing the armed forces budget, what other ‘projects’, will fall by the wayside?
I’d push back on the UK being bankrupt, it is extremely solvent albeit spending too much. A realignment of priorities and all our fiscal problems go away
“Britain’s new jet must prepare for Russia–China threat”!!!
Who else should it prepare against. The IRISH ?
Mauritians !
Even if Tempest turns out to be a world beating design, you can guarantee the MOD won’t order many of them.
Leonardo anticipate a 350 aircraft initial order. Split between the three nations, I think that would come out to maybe 125 for the Japanese, 100 for the British and 75 for the Italians.
Tempest is going to need the combat radius of the F-111, & the ability to carry 5000lb class weapons.
A quick scan through a War Zone article from July this year about the technology demonstrator and Tempest suggests that Tempest will indeed be about the size of the F-111, be able to cross the Atlantic without refueling and it may be able to carry a payload twice that of an F-35A. So yeh a big aeroplane.
The article also says that the demonstrator program is a UK only program at the moment with 2/3 (by weight) of the aircraft structure now in manufacture. The target date is for the first flight is 2027.
The article also points out the UK’s Experimental Aircraft Program (EAP) which produced the demonstrator for Typhoon looked very much like the final article all be it with quite a bit lifted from, or modified from Tornado. If the Tempest demonstrator follows the same pattern, and I believe it will otherwise why bother, we will soon get quite a significant insight into the size shape and hence capabilities of the Tempest fighter. I think the demonstrator will add a great deal to the Tempest program, even though it is a UK only program at the moment. So I would suggest that our investment goes further than the funding of Tempest suggests and the value of our participation is often very under valued by many here in the UK. That’s not to say we should over estimate our role either… Tempest is a team game and so looks promising.
Time will tell.
Cheers CR
PS. I think we will be lucky if there are no delays to the program, but that is another discussion.
Initially the demonstrator was supposed to show case to various Countries the UK’s ability to produce a next gen aircraft, I think with the idea of inviting countries to join the program. However, politics I believe over took events. With the issues with Biden’s administration blowing hot and cold over what could be released to Japan, then Trump’s cutting off everyone at the knees, then saying you can do a deal with us but on our terms. Showed that as a Nation, the US could no longer be trusted or relied upon. China was also ramping up production of the J20 and J35 fighter aircraft, plus there were rumours that they were developing a next gen aircraft (which proved accurate). Japan were pretty much banging on the door to join the UK’s future combat air system (FCAS), after I suspect on realizing how much this new aircraft would cost if going alone. They have two aircraft that are coming to the end of their lives, namely the Mitsubishi F2 (evolved F16) and the Mitsubishi F15J. They were purchasing the F35A to replace a lot of the F2’s role. But the F15J is the aircraft that needs urgently replacing if they are to compete with the newer Chinese aircraft. Italy, were also considering a Typhoon replacement, but were clear they didn’t want to be part of a French program. Sweden were invited into the program, as they were considering what comes after Gripen.
There are two or perhaps three key points for Tempest. The first is the RAF insisting on a very low radar cross section (RCS). As it means they can either get closer to a target before being detect. But having a low RCS also means it makes it more difficult to target the aircraft in the first place. The second part is that the RAF wanted the aircraft to maintain its low RCS, which meant using an internal weapons bay. This has a knock on effect for the third key requirement which is unrefuelled range. Traditionally 4th Gen aircraft need underwing drop tanks to get a decent combat radius with a full weapons load. The RAF wants Tempest to be capable of doing this on internal fuel only. Which if only using an internal weapons bay will also help range due to not creating shed loads of drag with carrying underwing weapons etc. Plus it will help the super-cruise ability.
I think Sweden quickly realized that the proposed aircraft would be too large to meet their short take off and landing (STOL) requirements, hence why they left.
The problem is that to carry that much fuel needs a lot of internal volume dedicated for storage, which will naturally increase the size of the aircraft. Added to that is that the RAF want weapons stored internally to maintain the RCS. So if the aircraft needed to carry something like Storm Shadow, then the bay needs to be large enough to accommodate it. Along with sufficient space for ground crew to load it, connect it up and arm it. Therefore the bay would need to be at least 5.1m long, 0.63m wide and 0.48m deep, plus additional space for the groundcrew to get hands, arms, a head so they can fit it. I’m pretty certain that the RAF will insist on it being able to carry a minimum of two Storm Shadows. So now the bay or two independent bays are starting to take up a large amount of volume. Especially if like the F35, it needs to carry a few air to air missiles as well for self defence. A large or a couple of weapons bays also causes packaging problems for routing your air intakes. Getting air to the engines without causing turbulence is vitally important, as they need smooth curves if they need to use a serpentine intake to hide the front face of the engine. But their dimensions could cause the bays to limited in depth, as per the Chinese J20 and to an extent the F22 Raptor.
Typhoon is not a small aircraft at nearly 16m long and with a gross weight of 16,000kg. The F22 is nearly 19m long, and has a gross weight of 29,400g. But has a similar combat range and has a limited bay size capacity. The F111 by comparison is over 22m long with a gross weight of 37,500kg and has a much longer internal fuel range. However, the internal bay was relatively small and as it could only carry a max load of 2300kg. Therefore I believe, the aircraft will be closer in size to the F111 compared to the F22. But have a much larger and deeper weapons bay, so it can carry stand-off air to surface missiles similar to the Storm Shadow. The delta wing shown with the demonstrator aircraft, probably points toward it using a delta wing, as they are great for carrying more fuel, whilst giving better drag characteristics at higher speeds. But like the demonstrator will have a wider and flatter fuselage. This is so it can provide body lift, but also the additional volume would be used to store fuel. Whilst allowing deeper weapons bay/s and helping with engine intake routing. There is perhaps an inkling of what FCAS could be like, which is based on the proposed YF-23 bomber. This would have been 30m long, have a combat radius over 1,840 miles (2,960 km) and internal payload of 10,000 lb (4,540 kg). I doubt it will be this big, but the payload and range are in the right ball park.
Yeah sure, take irrational actions, spread anti Russian hatred and propaganda then pray how everything will be fine. No, nothing will be fine. Sooner or later the sh** will hit the fan and then pretty sure British people are not as ready to sacrifice as Russians. You have forgotten that you’re not a factor in the world anymore and that you only barking while hiding around Americans legs?
The statement by Dr Sophy Antrobus of King’s College London about: “If we did not have the F-35 programme, we would not have a fifth-generation aircraft, end of.” Is a pile of shite! The reason I can say this, was that we had the future offensive air system (FOAS) program that was being developed to replace the Tornado. Tied into this program, BAe developed and made the Replica demonstrator aircraft. This aircraft was in part to test stealthy materials and manufacturing applications. Also tied into the FOAS, was the unmanned Taranis demonstrator. Which was a very stealthy concept aircraft that did a series of very successful test flights to validate its very low radar cross section and the flight controls of a tailless aircraft.
The JSF program was for the UK initially a replacement for the Harrier. The FOAS capability was then merged into it as a cost saving measure. As it was expected that there would be a split purchase of the conventionally landing JSF (F35A) to meet the FOAS requirements and the STOVL variant (F35B) to replace the Harrier.
Both the Replica and Taranis demonstrators showed that the UK had the capability of manufacturing a 5th Gen aircraft, which by implication was defined as an aircraft with very low radar cross section. A super cruise ability, along with the next gen avionics and networking would also have been easy to produce, thanks to Rolls Royce, Leonardo, Thales etc.