Britain’s new ‘Nightfall’ ballistic missile project underway

The UK has formally moved ahead with a new tactical ballistic missile effort after the Ministry of Defence published a notice for Project NIGHTFALL.

The notice, published on 9 December, confirms that the MOD is seeking industry partners to deliver a short term development programme, following earlier confirmation in November that officials were reviewing responses to an initial request for information. Defence Minister Luke Pollard previously told Parliament that the department expected to launch the competition before the end of the year, after assessing industry feedback.

According to the contract notice, the MOD is seeking to “procure a future tactical ballistic missile through a short-term development programme”, signalling one of the most ambitious missile requirements pursued by the UK in decades.

The programme is structured around a Competitive Development Phase, during which up to three suppliers may be awarded funded contracts to develop and mature their proposed solutions. This phase is expected to last around 12 months, after which the department will assess options for potential further development or production.

The published notice provides unusually detailed insight into the performance expected from the NIGHTFALL system. The MOD states that it requires a cost effective, ground launched ballistic missile with a range greater than 500 kilometres, capable of operating in high threat and contested environments.

In the words of the notice, the system must be “capable of being safely ground launched from a mobile platform in a high threat tactical environment, navigating to and accurately striking a user-programmed fixed target co-ordinate.” It must function day or night, withstand harsh physical conditions, and remain resilient in complex electromagnetic environments, including degraded or denied satellite navigation.

Each effector is required to carry a high explosive payload of around 200 kilograms and travel at supersonic speed on a ballistic trajectory. The MOD specifies that the missile must achieve a circular error probable of 10 metres for 50 percent of strikes, stating that it should “strike within 10m of a provided target co-ordinate 50% of the time.”

The system is also expected to support salvo firing. The notice requires the ability to launch multiple effectors from a single ground vehicle, with all missiles fired from the same launcher. Once launches are complete, the launcher and crew must be able to withdraw rapidly, with the MOD stating that they must leave the area “within 15 minutes of launching all effectors.” Strike timelines are also tight, with each effector expected to hit its target within 10 minutes of launch.

Looking ahead, scalability is a key consideration. Subject to any future contract, manufacturing must support production of at least ten units per month, with the ability to increase output further. The MOD also stresses the importance of upgrade potential, noting that designs should allow future improvements to range, accuracy and manoeuvrability.

The notice adds that systems should minimise reliance on foreign government restrictions such as export controls, and that suppliers must be able to deliver at least five complete units within nine to twelve months for trials.

While Project NIGHTFALL sets out a clear and demanding requirement, the MOD also reserves the right to amend or cancel the process at any stage. As the notice states, “the Authority reserves the right not to award any Contract to any supplier at any stage during the procurement.”