British Army ‘depleted in months’ during a major war

The British Army could be depleted within six to twelve months if faced with a large-scale conflict akin to the war in Ukraine, Defence Minister Alistair Carns has warned.

Speaking at a conference hosted by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Carns highlighted the critical role of reserves in addressing the challenges of modern warfare and sustaining the armed forces during protracted conflicts.

Citing casualty rates from Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, where an estimated 1,500 soldiers are killed or injured daily, Carns said such attrition would rapidly exhaust the British Army’s current capabilities.

“In a war of scale – not a limited intervention, but one similar to Ukraine – our army, for example, on current casualty rates, would be expended in six months to a year,” Carns said. He stressed the need for the UK to enhance its ability to “generate depth and mass rapidly in the event of a crisis.”

Carns, who recently joined the reserves himself after serving as a Royal Marines colonel, highlighted the importance of rebuilding the UK’s reserve forces. He argued that while the British Army does not necessarily need to grow in size, it must have the capacity to quickly expand in times of crisis.

“The reserves are critical, absolutely central, to that process,” Carns stated. “Without them, we cannot generate mass; we cannot meet the plethora of defence tasks.”

He called for an overhaul of the reserve recruitment process, describing it as overly complex and in need of simplification. Carns noted he had been holding discussions on streamlining the system to make joining the reserves more accessible.

Carns also pointed out that the UK lags behind its NATO allies in leveraging its reserve forces, calling for a shift in focus to align with the practices of other member states.

“We need to catch up with NATO allies,” he said, underlining the importance of fully integrating reservists into the broader defence strategy.

General Sir Jim Hockenhull, Commander of UK Strategic Command, echoed Carns’ sentiments at the conference, describing reservists as “fundamental to our national security.”

Hockenhull highlighted the critical contributions of specialist reservists, including the 2,000 personnel working at Strategic Command, which account for 7.5% of its workforce. He noted their role in various capacities, including training Ukrainian medics to address the unprecedented number of amputations caused by the war.

“There are more amputees as a consequence of the war in Ukraine than there are service personnel in the British Army,” Hockenhull remarked. “Many of our reserve medics are on the front line of helping that support and building capacity.”

The general argued for the need to integrate reservists into the armed forces fully, stating that their contributions must be “baked in, not bolted on.”

Carns’ comments underline the vulnerability of the British Army in the face of sustained attritional warfare. He said Russia’s ability to endure heavy losses and rebuild its forces highlights the importance of having a layered and adaptable military structure.

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