Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters providing Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) aircraft for the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission in Estonia have been scrambled to respond to Russian aircraft 21 times in the last 21 days.

The Typhoons, from RAF Lossiemouth-based number 1 (Fighter) Squadron, have been operating out of Amari Air Base since March as part of the UK’s leading contribution to NATO.

The Ministry of Defence said in a statement:

“The last three weeks have been especially busy and have resulted in the RAF intercepting 21 Russian aircraft in 21 days. These have included fighter aircraft (Su-27M FLANKER B, Su-30SM FLANKER H), VIP and other transport aircraft (Tu-134 CRUSTY, An-72 COALER, An-12 CUB), intelligence collection aircraft (Il-20 COOT A) and long-range bombers (Tu-22M BACKFIRE).”

The RAF Typhoons launch to monitor the Russian aircraft when they do not talk to air traffic agencies, making them a flight safety hazard.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said:

“These intercepts are a stark reminder of the value of collective defence and deterrence provided by NATO. The RAF has operated alongside our allies over the last three weeks to ensure both member states and our partner nations are protected, and they can be assured of our ongoing commitment to strengthening European security alongside those who share our values.”

140 EAW’s Commanding Officer Wing Commander Scott Maccoll:

“The number of recent intercepts that we have conducted from Amari Airbase in Estonia demonstrates the importance that our mission serves here in the Baltics. Throughout our NATO Air Policing Mission, 140 EAW has acted decisively and legitimately to uphold international law, protect democratic freedoms, and ensure the safety of all aircraft transiting throughout the airspace of member states. Working closely with our NATO allies has also improved interoperability across the alliance and bolstered regional security on NATO’s eastern flank.”

You can read more here.

George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

48 COMMENTS

    • Why play our hand that we can take them out 10+ to 1 and they order more or improve what they have when we can simply play along with their pathetic attempts to bully nato airspace. When it comes down to a real fight it won’t take long to realise the outcome, but yes well done RAF, doing the vital role they are trusted to do.

      • Try to calm yourself. That’s what the Jets are there for. It’s a little tiny number but that’s what they’re there to do.

    • Good idea. Whenever I suggest that we take such a more robust approach to the Russians, Daniele etc suggest these sort of suggestions are a bit gung-ho!

      • Because we’d then be at war with Russia, David. Maybe that is what you want?
        NATO will take a robust approach if Russia is robust with us. Flying these planes is not.

        And don’t say Salisbury was either. That, as everyone knows, was 2 GRU out to kill a Russian traitor who was spying for Britain. That a poor British lady died as a result of their idiocy is not an article 5 either.

        Whether these Russian aircraft are flying with transponders on or not, many of them were probably transiting from Russia mainland proper to Kalingrad, which they’re entitled to do.
        And you’d just open fire on them for that?

        Let me reverse it. An RAF RC135 flies on a recc mission in international airspace and the Russians shoot it down. You would be up in arms.
        The difference? None. If we shoot these planes down for what they are doing then we are at war.
        We are not at war with Russia, David! And we do not want to be, as people will die.

        This gung ho crap is fine in ones mind but not in real life. This is not a Hollywood movie, and peoples lives, including our personnel, are at stake.

        • As Medvedev has repeatedly assured the world, Britain is already at war with Russia. And he has personally threatened us with a nuclear strike on numerous occasions. Apparently we are Russia’s “Eternal Enemy”

          You must remember a couple of months back a Russian Sukhoi fired a missile at one of our Rivets operating over the Black Sea? Our asset either decoyed it or the missile malfunctioned. That would have been Article V had it struck home

          • No, it didn’t David. If it had most likely that Rivet would have been gone. They too know how far to push and fired away from the aircraft not directly at it. Just like the T45 had bombs dropped miles behind it and again not at it. It’s tub thumping bullshit, we know it and they know it.

            Medvedev talking bollocks for Russian public consumption is also not a war situation.

            And you’re not answering my points.
            Do you expect war with Russia if we shoot those planes down? Will Russia quite rightly retaliate? Then?

            This gung ho bollocks helps nothing but inflames the situation and several posters on this site come out with this nonsense without a batted eyelid at the consequences.

          • I think that under the current situation, more robust terms of engagement would be appropriate. If one of our chaps decided that it was necessary to open fire and shoot down a Sukhoi who’s radar had locked on, my view is that the Russians would crap out and not respond. There is no chance whatsoever that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons, its pure bluff because Putin knows what the response would be

            Russia is allowed to bomb UkR civilian targets with absolute impunity, thanks to Biden and a small NATO group led by Macron refusing to allow their weapons to be used against legitimate targets inside Russia.

            This just emboldens Putin, he thinks he can get away with anything. Hence all the bluster and empty threats.

          • Which is what they are, and that hurts no one and does not mean, to me at least, lets force their hand.

            There is certainly a Hawk and a Dove group in Washington. We know what side you are on! I have a foot in both camps, as I believe in a proportional response. I’m against hitting targets in Russia with western weapons, it plays right into Putin’s narrative he uses to sell this to Russians, yet I’m for arming Ukraine to the hilt for as long as it takes it to eject the invaders back to their start lines. Shooting down Russian assets because they are there, like what you wished to happen to Russian naval ships south of Portsmouth in early 2022, is not proportional! 😆

            When Russia starts shooting down RAF aircraft and firing missiles at our ships then we, and NATO, rightly retaliate.
            You say they’d be running scared. Well that is good, so they won’t attack us and we do not need WW3 to keep them in their box. So far Ukrainian sacrifice and heroism and western money, technical aid and intelligence in their support is doing a fine job. Russia are going backwards and their nation is showing cracks, judging by Putin’s performance these last few days.

            The wider inside Russia point is another debate entirely, though yes it forms another strand in the Hawk Dove camp. I don’t think the inside Russia point is really relevant to this particular situation though, and Mr Bells hope that the RAF pilots wanted to shoot them down, the initial post that set off this conversation.

            I assume these 21 Russian aircraft were in international airspace and not Estonian, and thus NATO airspace?

            The forcing down of the US Reaper drone and Turks shooting down the Russian jet are similar cases. With the Drone, the Russians calculate they get away with it as no lives are lost. Turkey, with Erdogan mates with Putin and Turkey, to many, barely in NATO at all by their behaviour, hardly the same as western European NATO nations shooting down Russian fighters, intell and transport types transiting, I assume, to Kalingrad simply because they are there.

          • Its not just me in the Hawk camp. Wallace has said several times that UkR may do whatever it wishes with our kit, including Storm Shadow. So have Germany and the Baltic states. Macron and the French have refused to allow even shelling across the border by their Cesar SPG

            In my view Biden is the leader of the Dove camp in Washington. Biden is a pacifist at heart, his natural instinct is to run away from any threat, including the likely prospect of the Ayatollahs testing their nuclear weapon next year. He knows that the Israelis dare not attack the Iran nuclear program alone and just to emphasise the point, earlier this year he moved 300,000 155mm artillery shells stored in Israel to Ukraine.

            Biden, who thinks he is Irish, like all Democrats regards Britain with mixed feelings. On the one hand he appreciates our being the American unsinkable aircraft carrier and indeed, our unwavering support. On the other hand he and his party supported the Provos throughout the Irish civil war, despite them killing about 1700 civilians, mortaring 10 Downing St and bombing Canary Wharf.

            So now your going to think that I’m anti-american. Actually, I’m not. But I think it’s obvious that Biden had made many mistakes over the Ukraine war, though I note the $billions in weaponry, training, intel and ammunition America has provided.

          • Well the choice is Biden or Trump.

            I did support Trump once, until I saw his attitude to the environment. And I don’t appreciate Biden’s snipes against the UK either.
            Though I would also add that both are mere figureheads. they get advice from others. And whatever politicians say, they eventually pass and relationships lower down remain.
            Not a fan of Macron over his behaviour to my country re Brexit, but I recall him going to Moscow to meet Putin in person, and I’m glad someone at least tried.
            I have no issues with France or Macron over Ukraine, all countries will do what they see fit as being for the best.
            The UK? We automatically follow the US lead on foreign policy, which is not always a good thing.
            It is a relief we are not all Doves and not all Hawks, as we’d either all be speaking Russian or dead by now.

        • Hi Daniele

          I do think in some cases NATO needed to be more robust…with its responses. The Salisbury incident was a classic, this was a planned Russia escalation and test..it’s classic textbook from their point of view…they were testing resolve to see if we would come close to matching their escalation.

          The thing about Russia is it has a totally different view on escalation, warfare and deterrence than the west. That was why actually turkey shot a Russian aircraft out the sky and nothing happened…to Russia it was simply a game of escalation and a deterrent response ( not an act of war)..it’s why they are knocking US drones out of the sky, why they dropped bombs close to a UK ship…it’s all within their standard view of normal escalation, deterrent and warfare.

          Its also why they first invaded Ukraine in 2014 in one way, then launched a special operation in 2022 that was effectively a war but not no a war to Russia.

          so Russia has 17 levels of escalation and de-escliation and 4 levels of war within those 17 steps of escalation ( historically Russia has favoured a escalation tree of up to 44 levels).

          rungs 1-destabilisation using political means..including information warfare economic sanctions..effectively Russia perceives the west as never getting beyond rung one.

          Rung 2s are effectively threats of undertaking violence against other nations. Russia threading the west with military repercussion is a rung two.

          rung 3 grey zone warfare, incursions by stike aircraft close to borders, using military capabilities close to other’s military ( effectively this is the level Russia is using against the west most of the time at present).

          Rung 4 hybrid warfare, limited combat using special forces and denyable assets, large scale use of Miss information and economic disruption…this was what Russia used in Ukraine

          Rung 5 interaction between great powers that cause death and destruction to military equipment ( this would be shooting down an aircraft blatantly).

          Rung 6 local conventional warfare, with cyber war, limited or no strike against civi infrastructure

          rung 7 regional war….start of war between great powers. Still limited to military no major destruction of infractucture

          rung 8 Limited conventional warfare with defeat (physical destruction or functional defeat) on one scale or another of spacecraft without destroying satellites of the missile attack warning system.

          rung 9 Large-scale conventional war without destroying large urban centers, chemical industries, nuclear power plants, etc., with the use of cyber weapons only against military targets both in the theater and beyond.

          rung 10 Large-scale conventional war with combat cyber operations aimed at disrupting the state administration system and destroying important civilian infrastructure of the other side.

          rung 11 Conventional war with the disruption of large urban centers, with the destruction of chemical industries and nuclear power plants (at the same time, the defeat of large chemical production facilities, nuclear power plants with large-scale chemical and radiation contamination

          rung 12 Nuclear conflict – a crisis in which one or more nuclear weapons states are involved, and the confrontation reaches the level when one or more sides begin to use nuclear weapons as an instrument of direct political and military pressure

          rung 13 -17 nuclear war…16 is strategic strike using counter force 17 is strategic strike using counter value.

          so you can see that in Ukraine Russia is actually using escalation rung 6-7, while using rung 3 against the west…( Salisbury would have been a quick check on what we would do at rung 4)..while it sees the west as only reacting on rung 1. It is very likely that Russia would have expected the UK and NATO to react at rung 3…possibly even rung four against Salisbury and saw it as a weakness which reduced the effectiveness of the west military might as a deterrent ( a deterrent must have visible, capable, believability and willingness to use).

          But generally NATO going out and showing it’s assets….interception or aircraft and ships with shadowing is the correct thing to do against the rung three escalations by Russia..but when Russia ups it’s escalation ( such as Salisbury rung 4 ) the west needs to also up its escalation..Russia will expect this..( turkey shooting down the Russian jet was seen as a rung five escalation and Russia backed off its incursions into airspace which were level 4 escalations).

      • They are actually allowed to fly around doing this…yes it pisses NATO off. But they are not pushing over a red line…

  1. Good to see the “mighty” Russian Airforce has aircraft to keep buzzing NATO airspace instead of fighting the war in Ukraine and supporting the Russian army.

    Big hero Russian pilots able to take out unmanned drones by bumping in to them and buzz civilian aircraft. 😀

    • Were they doing that, or transiting too and from Kalingrad? If the later, not much wrong with it to me and the geography makes this inevitable.

      • Agree, Daniele, but a crucial issue is that they never file a flight plan or have a transponder working. They are invisible to ATC and a danger to all other aircraft in the vicinity. So, as well as identifying these aircraft, the interceptors supply crucial position info to ATC.

  2. A very interesting video of a French CAESAR 155mm gun indirectly getting taken out by a Russian Lancet Loiting muntion. In a nutshell the Driver of the CAESAR was very unlucky, but it hints at how Ukrainians may have been taught to dodge UAVS.

    • These drones are a pain to deal with. Without having a drone defence vehicle out protecting each vehicle or group of vehicles things some drones will get through. Even with drone defence some may get through.
      Take note forces across the world.

      • Compact anti drone level automated EW isn’t that big a deal.

        Maki g drones drop from the sky is easy. You don’t see it done in cities as the collateral risk is too high.

  3. Apart from the QRA responses, are NATO aircraft reciprocating these nuisance flights? We have more aircraft and could potentially be buzzing the Russian frontiers all the way from the Artic to the Black Sea, forcing them to commit to more QRAs themselves and so further reduce aircraft available to fight in Ukraine while also helping to degrade the lifespan of their already aged airframes.

    • I don’t think their modern version ( name of which escapes me ) of the Voyska PVO “Troops of Air Defence” would be in use in the Ukraine war anyway. It was an entirely separate service, like their Strategic Rocket Forces. They take AD very seriously due to the sheer size of the area they need to defend and the threat NATO, and primarily the USAF, pose.

      The obvious ones that spring to mind are the RC135 flights.

      • Speaking of which from today:

        Moscow has claimed it scrambled a pair of jets after three foreign planes – including two UK Air Force Typhoon fighter jets – approached the Russian border over the Black Sea.
        The approaching jets then performed a U-turn away from the border, the Russian Ministry of Defence said.
        It said in a statement: “On 26 June 2023, Russian airspace control systems detected three aerial targets approaching the state border of the Russian Federation over the Black Sea.
        “A pair of Su-27 fighter jets on duty scrambled to identify the aerial targets and prevent violations of the state border of the Russian Federation.
        “The Russian fighter jets identified the aerial targets as RC-135 reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft and two UK Air Force Typhoon multirole fighter jets.”
        The foreign planes did not cross the border and the Russian aircraft returned safely to their airfield afterwards. 
        “The flight by the Russian fighter jets was carried out in strict compliance with the international rules for the use of airspace over international waters without crossing air routes or coming dangerously close to aircraft of a foreign state,” the Russian MoD added.

        • Rivets are invaluable assets and if this story is true, the positive is that there were two Typhoons riding shotgun. It reads like it was a routine interception.

          • I’m guessing since that incident last year any of the Rivets are escorted, but other than that as you say sounds routine.

  4. I suspect Kaliningrad could become a safe hideout for Russian assets if their was a civil war and Putin or another leader needed to stash away some force from a conflict on Russia main.

  5. Any votes for a sustained NATO operation to probe and test Russian AD?

    It would push Russian personnel, frames and defence economics as well as denude Russia of Air over the Ukraine.

    (Perhaps it is already happening, hopefully).

    • There are very few Russian warplanes operating over UkR, they have lost many aircraft to MANPADS and other UkR AD. The Russians are forced to launch their ordnance targeting hospitals, residential blocks, schools, kintergardens etc from many miles inside Russia

  6. As NATO gathers it’s strength and the RAF 140 Expeditionary Air Wing gains useful QRA experience from the very forward Amari airbase in Estonia, it exposes just how much we need additional Rivets to gather real-time intel on Russian military activity.

    At least there seems to be active discussion going on among the various Defence Committees about our military readiness. Lets hope for a positive outcome from the forthcoming Defence Command paper

    • We had 3 aircraft for this role in the Cold War. We have 3 now.

      The Rivets are but one tool, we have others.

      I myself would spend the money on E7s or P8s instead, or on additional A400, before increasing an already gold standard capability. Would the USAF even have any spare, no idea.

      • I admire the carrier based EA-18G Growler. It is apparently unsurpassed for tactical jamming. Robert would remind us that the Typhoons have EW but as far as i’m aware our F35B don’t yet. I read somewhere that the Merlins have some EW capability?

        • The Merlins? No idea myself, I’d not heard of that.
          I too have heard of the Growlers EW capabilities.

          Robert knows more than I ever will on the technical and avionic capabilities of fast jets so maybe he, or DaveyB, will comment.

          Just a note, the EW jamming capability on Growler is not the same as the role of the RC135. “EW” has many variations.
          For example, our own “14 Signal Regiment” is described as having our land based EW capability, but does a lot more than jamming.

        • EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON: DIGITAL STEALTH
           
          “The Eurofighter Typhoon has one of the world’s most advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. This allows the Typhoon to operate stealthily, evading threats and preventing engagement.”

          LINK

        • 3 Apr 2023

          “BAE Systems has received $491 million in contracts from Lockheed Martin to produce state-of-the-art Block 4 electronic warfare (EW) systems for future Lot 17 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets.”

          LINK

  7. This sounds like a very interesting concept being developed by MBDA.

    “PARIS AIR SHOW — It’s not a weapon, it’s not a drone and it’s not an aircraft. So what is it?

    It’s an “expendable remote carrier” (ERC), an integral part of the European SCAF program, whose main objective is to confuse the enemy and lure its air defense system out of hiding.”

  8. Looks familiar!

    Turkish Aerospace (TA) has revealed details of its new Anka III medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) at the Paris Air Show 2023, held from 19 to 25 June. The company displayed a 1:7 scale model of the UCAV.

    The Anka III, which underwent taxi tests on 26 April 2023 and is expected to conduct its maiden flight in July, is a tailless flying-wing configuration aircraft with low-observability design features including a frontal air intake obscured from below and a sawtooth engine exhaust.

    The model on display featured four wing-mounted pylons carrying a TA Süper Şimşek aerial target, a Roketsan Stand-Off Missile (SOM-J) air-to-surface munition, and Roketsan MAM-T mini smart munition.

    Unlike the Anka and Aksungur UAVs, the Anka III also features an internal weapons bay. It is stated as being capable of Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) and swarm deployment as well as carrying air-to-air radar and munitions. It is compatible with the ground control systems of the Anka and the Aksungur and features the same avionics architecture.”

    https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/uk-taranis-ucav-flight.jpg

  9. How long until Ukraine start using western weapons inside Russia? And then how long for Western support to dry up because of this? And then how long for Ukraine to concede territory? Point being without Ukraine becoming a member of Nato, Crimea will remain Russian.

    • I’m not so sure; Ukraine realises that it gains nothing by breaking its promise not to use weapons in Russia and will probably focus on evicting the Russians from its sovereign territory. And I would imagine that Putin is probably now going full on Joseph Stalin and seeing conspiracy and mutiny everywhere he looks, which is bound to have an impact on the already poor performance of the Russian Army.

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