Royal Navy warship HMS Richmond kept a close watch on a Chinese Navy task group as it passed the UK twice in three weeks, according to an announcement.
The Plymouth-based frigate monitored the Peopleās Liberation Army (Navy) ships first as they headed to St Petersburg to participate in Russian Navy Days.
In their announcement, the Royal Navy say that, working alongside NATO allies, the British warship was on hand to keep the two Chinese vessels ā the Jiaozuo, a 7500-tonne destroyer, and Honghu, a 23,400-tonne supply ship ā firmly under surveillance as they made their return journey through the North Sea and into the Channel, travelling through UK waters under routine right of passage.
Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard, said:
“These escorts are a clear demonstration of how the Royal Navy continues to protect the sovereignty of UK waters. Working closely with our allies to support Euro-Atlantic security is a top priority for this government. I thank the crew of HMS Richmond for conducting a safe and professional transit and all they do in keeping our nation secure at home and strong abroad.”
Although the presence of Chinese Navy ships in the English Channel is not a common occurrence, itās not the first time the Royal Navy has maintained watch on Chinese ships heading to or from the Russian city for its annual naval gathering. HMS St Albans and Westminster were called upon to monitor the Chinese destroyer Xian as it sailed to and from the same event back in 2019.
HMS Richmond took over from the French ship Commandant Blaison which maintained contact with the Chinese duo past its countryās coastline.
From there until reaching the North Sea, where Belgian Navy patrol ship Pollux continued to follow Jiaozuo and Honghu.
Richmond used her helicopter āBrigandā from 814 Naval Air Squadron at Cornwall, plus cutting-edge sensors and simple visual contact to maintain a constant eye on the two vessels.
HMS Richmondās Commanding Officer, Commander Richard Kemp, said:
“Close monitoring of foreign vessels in UK waters is routine business for the Royal Navy and ensures their compliance with maritime law and respect for UK sovereignty. By maintaining a visible and persistent presence, the Royal Navy demonstrates our commitment to the NATO alliance and in maintaining maritime security which is crucial to our national interests.”
The Royal Navy say it routinely monitors UK waters and adjacent seas to ensure compliance with maritime law and protect national interests. As part of unified activity with NATO Allies, the presence of foreign naval vessels is monitored as they transit through or adjacent to the UK Maritime Area. This is entirely normal and helps to ensure the Royal Navyās presence is noted, they add.
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Itās very interesting how China and Russia have to send supply ships everywhere even when just deploying a small frigate or a destroyer. The lack of foreign bases makes it very difficult for a navy to operate globally.
It may be an idea for the UK to invite Chinese warships for a port visit next time they are in European waters, freedom of navigation means China has as much right to have ships in the North Sea as the UK does in the South China Sea and it may help two ward off a Cold War mentality.
I wonder what the little pinks will think of that š
Sending a supply ship when you are about 8000 miles from home is pretty normal if most people aren’t interested in hosting you for a resupply. You will note however that there isn’t the Russian Std Tug accompanying them.
The problem with freedom of navigation is that it is a two way street, we acknowledge that right where China insist on trying to block their side of the street. This is why they aren’t that many places they are welcome and why they have a supply ship.
I think it’s a great idea to suggest they have a port visit somewhere like London (and well away from our naval bases). They can collect lots of Elint and we can monitor them monitoring us. It’ll be like live electronic exercises.
ā¦and they have all those illegal police stations of theirs dotted around Greater London to visit and compare notes.
This is not a tug in case of breakdown..this is sending a task group with RAS support into the meditation/euroatlantic region..if they had sent a frigate without RAS supportā¦thatās just the normal activity of a green water frigate navy and less of a concernā¦
Its not a weakness that they are sending an at sea replenishment vessel on a distant deploymentā¦question you should be asking is what does it mean that they are able to send so many task groups out with RAS supportā¦after all they have a deployment in Europe with RAS support, a deployment in the gulf/gulf of Aden with RAS and another deployment heading home in the Easter Indian occean with RAS supportā¦
while at the same time they have a large task force in the South China Sea, with RAS support and well as another task group of in the western pacific south of Korea and a carrier battle group in the Philippine sea.
finally they have now started a permanent deployment of a task for around Cambodia covering the strait of malacca ( Cambodia says they are just there for training..but so far they have been there for around 8 months and the PLAN donāt look like moving from their naval base).
China now essentially has two navel bases with permanent navel task forces covering both of the major choke points in the east and West Indian occeanā¦
Its a sign of a very very big problem for the west..infact the centre of strategic and international studies publicised an article in June which stated..
āIf China continues to expand its fleet at the current pace and the United States does not revitalize its shipbuilding industry, China will grow increasingly likely to emerge victorious from interstate war, especially a prolonged great power war.ā
According to the 2024 international institute for strategic studies, balance of power, china now has 167 combat support and logistic vesselās vs the USNs 126ā¦with a significant overmatch in numbers of surface combatants as well..( although in general the quality of the US combatants is betterā¦although that balance is changing as well)ā¦the US cannot maintain dominance in any major war or long term conflict when china has around 260 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US.
Fortunately the US has allies with capable navies. China does not.
The USN will also very likely be fighting the PLAN in the china seasā¦in which the tyranny of distant and land based air cover will be hardā¦its best to not be dismissiveā¦if china can decimate the USN in the china seas it cannot recoverā¦china can and has been building the equivalent in tonnage of the RN every couple of years and that is in peace timeā¦all the allies in the world ( especially since many are in Europe) will not help the U.S. bridge the ship building capacity gap if china and the US end up in a years long attrition war to strategic exhaustionā¦.china can win that fightā¦.a lot of very expert opinion is saying so.
Also what most people donāt realise is the geostrategic situation in the western pacific is far more complex and less black and white than in the Euro Atlantic region..NATO makes it easy if you are talking about Europe and the continental USā¦when your talking about a conflict in the pacific the US has lots of obligations but no supportive grand allianceā¦Japan does not have an alliance to support and defend the US ( infact itās still constitutionally obligated to only act in its own defence)..South Korea..not obligation, Australia no obligationā¦infact if China simply invades Taiwan and only attacks or defends against the U.S. from the second island chain inwards or in the Indian Ocean and does not impinge on Japan ectā¦the US would be on its own unless it could get individual European nations on sideā¦.India would inevitably stay neutral as would all the gulf and western Indian Ocean states apart from Iran and we know which way they would swingā¦.so I would not be so sure of some grand allianceā¦
“if china and the US end up in a years long attrition war to strategic exhaustionā¦.china can win that fightā¦.a lot of very expert opinion is saying so.”
They can and in my opinion they would, if it came to that but based on the US force design and recent procurement decisions, they have no intention of being in an attritional war. Also keep in mind that a Taiwan invasion scenario is incredibly complex for China. I can’t see how they invade Taiwan without dragging Japan and possible South Korea into the war which makes it a multifront conflict for them. Something that definitely gives them pause.
What has Taiwan got to do with South Korea or Japan? It is a province of China.
Hi troll
How mature!
Japan can act offensively in self-defense (that’s not a contradiction in terms) and is restructuring its armed forces to have a preemptive strike capability. The “experts” are naive if they think that a Chinese attack on Taiwan wouldn’t be met with a military response by all of the democratic powers in the Pacific who would recognize an attack on Taiwan as a direct threat to their national security. China can’t gather the forces necessary to invade Taiwan without alerting US intelligence well in advance and the US will be waiting for them with a formidable array of US Navy, US Marine, and USAF assets, supported by formidable Japanese and South Korean naval and air assets.
China has to assume that any attack by Taiwan will be met by all of the relevant democratic powers. Do the “experts” really believe that the Chinese Communists are so astute diplomatically that they could split this alliance? If so, there’s a man with a bridge in Brooklyn for sale.
Japan has effectively stated it will support Taiwan in any conflict. In reality it might not have much choice as it would inevitably lead to the southern Japanese islands being assaulted soon after which are nearer to Taiwan than mainland Japan so they would otherwise have to accept an invasion akin to Russia taking the Shetland. China by the way illegally enters Japanese Internationally recognised territorial waters over a 100 times per year which shows the full e tent of Chinas hypocrisy let alone future intent in such matters.
Indeed it can, but it can only act if it is defending itself against an existential threat to its existence. Now china taking Taiwan is a potential existential threat..in that it could potentially cut a number of major shipping lanes if china and Japan ever went to warā¦.but like Russia and Ukraine is to many Eastern European nations..itās a risk of a potential existential threat not an actualised existential threatā¦therefore itās a toss up as to what Japan does in that case..
Japan would have to balance a future potential existential risk against the real risk that china would bury the home islands in a vast amount of cruise, ballistic missiles and air attacks causing untold death to its population..if the U.S. went to war over Taiwan it would do so sending out its armed forces in harms way..knowing that itās home is at little or low risk ( at best a few targeted attacks on specific infrastructure) Japan would join that war knowing its going to be smashedā¦a very very different propositionā¦I would note that no European power has declared war for Ukraine..and even the U.S. has decided discretion is the better part of valour when I comes to a potential enemy with nuclear weaponsā¦.the west seems to be only happy to send its armies to fight and die against nations that cannot strike back at its homeā¦and only then if itās for not to long and does not drag onā¦.so I would not be to sure of Japan at allā¦
As for Europeā¦ that really sort of depends to be honestā¦The US has been seen to be a shaky allyā¦the pull out from northern Syria, the abandoned of Afghanistan to the Taliban and some very shaky support to Ukraineā¦has made a lot of nations in Europe pretty worried and far more focused on ensuring Europe is safeā¦even then in reality there are only three European nations that could offer meaningful support and thatās the UK, France and Italyā¦in reality if Europe went to war with china in support of the U.S. the gulf of Aden and western Indian occean would end up being held at risk..and essentially the European navyās could just about secure and keep that set of sea lanes openā¦freeing the USN from that areaā¦apart from a stray SSN that would probably be Europes contributionā¦if a china US war kicks off..there would be a very high chance that Russian and Iran would join on the fun..so any willing US allies would probably end up guarding against that so the USN can pop off in full strength to the pacificā¦.remember European navyās are 6 weeks steaming from the pacific ..so if the UK could get a CBG ready at 1 months notice..itās not arriving until 3 months after the fighting startsā¦France only has one carrier..and if china was clever they would wait until itās in refitā¦the Italian carrier is a tiddler and not really much use in the pacific.
Next biggest concentration is Koreaā¦.now what do you think the nutter in the north is going to do the moment china and the US go to warā¦heās not going to sit there on his hands and go..ohhh look itās my one chance to invade the south without the U.S. hammering meā¦heās going to invade the southā¦so Korea will be in a war of destruction with the north..or even if not it will have to keep all its forces at home on the assumption that the north will invade ( because everyone knows the moment it thinks ot can get away with it it will launch the hordes)..
So the reality is if china goes for only Taiwan the USN are probably going to be fighting with no other allies than tiawan for at least the first campaign of the war..and that will be with the forces it has in the western pacificā¦thatās going to be pure pain and the USN will be vastly outgunned..infact it may have to run and save its CBGs and amphibious groupsā¦at best it will have a couple of CBGs and an amphibious group in the western pacific and that force level cannot face of the PLAN in the china seasā¦The PLAN will be doing its level best to kill those exposed battle groups in that first monthā¦ the USN is going to have to concentrate at pearl then steam 4000miles if itās going to try and break the PLAN grip around Taiwanā¦so thatās your month two eventā¦any extra forces from Europe would be in month three..
personally I think Japan will be in any china US war from day one..because I suspect the likely scenario will be that china tries to flatten every US base in the western pacific first chain and Guam on day one. the evidence is there..they have mock ups of the base in Japan and Guam with nice big missile crater holes where they have practiced attacking themā¦and they are are not stockpiling theatre ballistic missiles for funā¦I would say day one would see massive missile strikes on Guam and the CBG in Japan.
I also think that if your study the Chinese paradigm. That comes from āon protracted warā by Mao you will see that a big part of this is making the enemy hurt at homeā¦so I think china will engage in all sorts of terror, political, cyber and kinetic attacks on the U.Sā¦.to try and break the US populations will to fightā¦this in itself will trigger NATOā¦so in my own view a U.S. china war will inevitably flow into a world war involving all the west, vs china, Russia and its its satellite nations, Iran and its proxies as well as North Koreaā¦you would even see fighting for resources in Africa..and a general navel conflict across the globe..this is a war china thinks it can win because it thinks the west is weak and our populations, will when the suffering, poverty and losses mount give up and go to the peace table because āwho cares about Taiwan reallyā
There is another potential possibility in that in the end the US decides that Taiwan is not worth fighting a world war with a peer enemy and fellow nuclear powerā¦I personally could see this as a possibilityā¦.it would in the end see the end of US/western hegemony but I could see it happen
The only real way to really prevent the above..is by massive investment in deterrent, which means the west hurting a lot to:
1) kick its military into Cold War levels..thatās every western nation spending 5% GDP on defence.
2) a massive build-up of key industriesā¦the west won the Cold War and WW2 because of industrial economic dominanceā¦in the modern world China has 260% more shipbuilding capacity than the U.Sā¦that will matter and china knows itā¦
3) decoupling of our industrial supply chains and markets from chinaā¦china is doing this to the west..but the west is still happily letting china build all its componentsā¦china has probably lost 2% of growth for the last 6-7 years from its economy since it decided to decouple and harden its industrial capacity against a world warā¦
4) engagement in a massive political warfare campaign against chinaā¦if anyone thinks the levels of political disruption in the west are simple just happening they are delusional..china has 2 key political warfare agencies employing 3 million operatives..that have been attacking and destabilising the west for years..we need to start doing it backā¦.
5) show appsolute commitment to attacking any threat to the west and never giving up..no more retreats from Afghanistan or northern Syria..no more sort of support to Ukraineā¦they west has to go out and crush any and all opposition.
6) when Putin pulls a nuclear blackmail numberā¦look him in the eye and essentially go āyes we have ours as well, would you like to seeā
7) political parties need to agree on some rules of the road..as they had during the Cold Warā¦every political party in the west that could be in power followed the same..āwe will take you down in the firesā policy when it came to the Soviet Union and it worked. Our enemies knew that everyone had the same view on defence.
If the west does this it may convince china that the west would infact win and to back awayā¦personally I think itās do this or back off and let china have Taiwanā¦.any middle road will lead to a world war.
Well said and you’re 100% correct.
Numbers do not outmatch capability and experience. You know. I know. The US Navy would wipe the floor with them. They don’t even have experience of dropping bombs on terrorists in the desert, let alone anything else. And that’s not underestimating them. Its simple truth. The Americans have decades of combat experience. The Chinese have zero.
The problem is Robert that is not alway trueā¦the west lost in Afghanistan and the US lost in Vietnam…to an enemy with almost no capabilityā¦as for experience, there was no more experienced or battle harder army in the world than the Wehrmacht..the US forces were essentially utterly greenā¦the Wehrmacht lostā¦.the Japanese imperial navy was far more battle hardened than the USN in 1941ā¦against they lostā¦
The simple truth is wars are won by far more that a nations standing field army or navy..if your depending on your navy for a short sharp victory..and yet your opponent has 260 times the shipbuilding capacity than you and is an occean awayā¦then your going to get a nasty suppriseā¦because at some point your brilliant navy is going to run out of shipsā¦and if he can build more than you and has the will to keep coming at you as well as the industrial capacity to overcome yoursā¦you will lossā¦.just remember in all major wars the army that wins is not the army that you start with as that army is died along the wayā¦infact the winner is the nation that can keep raising armies one after the otherā¦.if the PLAN can decimate the USN in the first couple of months of a china seas campaign..even if the USN destroys vast amounts of the PLAN..china can rebuild a navy the U.S. only has the one itās gotā¦.
I think you are massively underestimating the US’s industrial capacity in a crisis. Building ships quickly is one thing, making them into trained capable fighting units is another. The US didn’t lose in Afghanistan, not from a military point of view anyway.The west lost the politics. China couldn’t even do what us and the Americans have done on the Red Sea for an extended period. Their lack of capability and experience would be exposed very quickly. Also, you have to remember. China is also a land of McDonald’s and Disneyland. And huge numbers of rich and middle-class Chinese buy expensive western goods and premium brands. They flock to London,Paris and NY in droves for holidays. They need the West and globalisation to survive and grow. Taking Taiwan by force is an enormous gamble for them. Which is why they probably won’t do it. The ramifications are too great. Even for an economy, the size of China’s. They could have done it when Taiwan suffered a massive earthquake. But nothing. They have nothing to gain. Which is why in the end, the aggressive talk will continue, and the drills will continue like they have done for decades. But nothing else. I have work colleagues in Taiwan. Who have grown up with the threat from China. There parents and grandparents have lived with the threat from China. Some even support China. But no war has ever come. And China will also be looking at the mess the war in Ukraine has left Russia in. They are smarter than the Russians.They won’t risk making the same mistake over a island off the south coast. In the long run, Taiwan may do a deal with them that brings them more into the Chinese fold, without giving up is democracy. Time will tell.
Hi Robert, interestingly itās the USN and department of defence itself that has raised the issue of ship building as potentially war losingā¦they have produced a three slide briefing that essentially says in their estimate china can produce 200% of the tonnage of warships than the U.S. in time if warā¦thatās their estimates if both sides converge all of there capabilitiesā¦.essentially they have estimated at best the US is now capable of producing 100,000 tons of warship a year. But they estimate china at max capacity could produce 200 million tonsā¦.and the really brutal bit is that china does not even need to convert its yards to military building as all its shipyards are essentially required to be a mixed military/civilian yard ( essentially every ship builder is a military ship builder that also does civilian work).
Finally having quantity builds quality..quantity of ships, quantity of manpower, quantity of industrial capacity allows you to build quality into your system..the less main power, the less ships and industrial capacity you have against requirement the more the quality of your service fallsā¦there is a good article on this in the maritime executive āchinas navy is using quantity to build qualityā.
finally in regards to will china fight over Tiawan and will it fight a world warā¦.honestly the terrifying answer is yes it willā¦because all those wealthy people in china donāt actually matter. China is not a modern state itās a communist state that uses the trappings of a modern state to its advantageā¦the Chinese state will and does disappear and or execute any of those very rich individuals that step out of line they know this..
What you much remember about the Chinese stateā¦and how the population are controlledā¦.
the population are controlled by around 1.5million paramilitaries internal securityā¦backing up the 3.6million strong police and what they are allowed to see and think is managed by the 3 million political warfare operatives employed by the stateā¦.
The security apparatus are directly controlled by the community party, all government apparatus are controlled by the communist party and every private business has a communist party shadow board, that monitors and is legally able to take over the company at any time..
The communist party has a membership of 1 millionā¦.they are the high priestās of what is essentially a belief system..
The Chinese communist party is managed and is completely faiful to the central committeeā¦now this is the big oneā¦in theory the central committee should vote in and act as a control/balance of power with the general secretary ( this has been the case since Mao)ā¦Xi has changed all thatā¦using the war against corruption..he has removed any and all opposition and changes the rules..essentially Xi now totally controls the central committee..
What this means is that even beyond any historic monarchy or other dictatorship we have seen..the control of Xi is totalā¦xi controls the central committee totally as well as the wider communist party..the communist party controls every state body including the 5 odd million police and internal security paramilitaryā¦they also control every business. Basically china does what Xi wants nothing more nothing less..and if you object you are re educated or deadā¦
what does xi wantā¦unfortunately every bit of evidence we have says that xi is profoundly clever, very brave, willing to suffer, utterly brutal, completely driven and most importantly and scarily completely brainwashed into believing the story of Chinas destiny as constructed by Mao..this is a man whoās parents were generals of the revolution under Maoā¦who were charged with being traitors and locked up..as children he and his siblings were cast onto the streets, his sister died on the streets in front of himā¦he was then swept up in the cultural revolution and sent as a child serf/slave to a village to work on a farmā¦.he escaped back to the city after a few year as an older teanager..he was then arrested and sent to a hard Labour camp ( during the Cultural revolutIon when millions died ). After being let out he returned to the village with nothing more than a box of box on Mao and communismā¦started working a slave farmer and spent the next couple of years trying to become a member of the communist party ( he was refused over and over because of his family and personal history)..he was finally allowed in as a party member and became the general secretary despite his history because he was a better and more driven believer than anyone else..he did the hard jobs out in the rural communities no one else wanted to do..
So what does Xi believeā¦he believes in The Maoist fantasy of the romance of the three kingdomsā¦you have to understand Chinese communism differs from other forms of communism in that itās not āinternational communismā itās profoundly nationalist and based around han exceptionalism..itās why it feels a bit like they are fascists because it has those elements.. what this fantasy/beliefs systems core looked like is this: China can only be great and fulfil its destiny when it is whole and United under one banner..thatās its destiny..but it will always go through cycles of unity ( greatness) followed by fracturing (destruction shame and weakness), followed by suffering any harm to bring about reunification and reaching unity ( greatness)ā¦this is the core of Maoist beliefs and so what drives Xiā¦he believes that china must be reunited..he also believes that china must and will suffer for reunificationā¦he believes this as much as any religious extremism believes or Hitler believedā¦
A frigate and an auxiliary isn’t a task force…
Yes it isā¦look up the definition of a naval task forceā¦basically if itās more than one military vessel assigned to a task itās a task forceā¦and itās not a frigate..itās a 052D AAW destroyerā¦very modern and 7500 tones ( PLAN have around 30 commissioned and 7 fitting out and seems to be aiming for 50) as well as a type 903A replenishment shipā¦a very nice 8 year old, 23,000 ton replenishment ship, with hanger and flight deck for a large military rotor.(PLAN have 9 of them)ā¦
Except the Chinese donāt accept our right of passage in the South China seas at all even though it has been designated legally as non Chinese territorial Waters, let alone offer freedom of navigation if it were officially recognised as theirs, as is the case of the Channel being Internationally legally designated.
It’s a very contested concept but there is a very strong academic argument to effect the SCS is not mainland Chinese territory but may be Taiwanese administered territory…courtesy of allies at end of WWII….hence the ramping up of mainland China’s desire to regain control of Taiwan.
Unfortunately China has more freinds & bases globally than you might suppose.
Can you really describe one medium size warship and a stores supply ship as a “task group”?
It is interesting how the world works, if it was a genuine task group of 5 to10 warships the royal Navy would have looked a bit silly escorting them with 1 ship. I suspect that the Chinese couldn’t (it present) support that size of task group and certainly the Royal Navy doesn’t have enough ships to be a credible escort for it.
I read in one of the papers that the chancellor will be looking for the MOD to reduce (along with other departments) to make savings, rather contracting the ambition to increase the defence budget.
If that paper was the Telegraph or the Mail it’s probably best to ignore it.
She has to pay for all the new benefit packages she’ll need soon.
She has to lay for the Conservatives’ deficit.
Very similar to the deficet left by Gordon Brown. Remember the note. “there’s no money left” Just for a change it would be nice if politicians of all parties came into office and said “The past is the past, I will take responsibilty from now on” ļ»æšļ»æI’m not holding my breath.
Labour left 170bn deficit the last government left 120bn I believe so maybe labour doesnāt want to really say much about that
Very true, I’m still shocked she got away with a speech saying large black hole in public finances, here’s Ā£10 billion in pay rises.
Either we have a budget issue or we don’t, what she was basically saying is the government is making a choice to give (well deserved in most cases) pay rises at the expense of other spending.
Defence cuts are almost certain. The pay raise is coming out of the MoD budget and it comes on top of an already existing large deficit in program budgets. I suspect that almost everything “east of Suez” will go and the easiest cut in the navy would be to get rid of one of the carriers – big personnel saving, one can then limit the F-35 orders going forward and there is no negative political fallout. It’s not the right move, but politically it will be the easiest.
I agree. I think she suffers from the Diane Abbot school of arithmetic. I’m in debt (?) so I’ll spend money I haven’t got then cancel a load of capital projects that benefit private sector employment, then I’ll have a review. If we don’t have defence cuts I’ll be amazed.
some of that cost would have happened any as the pervious government had already offend junior doctors a 22% pay rise etc, they were just dodging the bullet by calling an election
They most definitely couldā¦.they are very light touch in Europe for political reasons not because of capacityā¦.but china could but a CBG through the channel anytime itās likes..the PLAN is now larger than the US when measuring large surface combatants as well as logistic and support vesselsā¦.this summer they have around 6 task groups with RAS support on operationsā¦
It’s not just about having support vessels. It’s also about having strong diplomatic relationships with nations, ports, and logistics suppliers. Spare parts for vessels and aircraft are also flown and dispatched globally. Fresh food when in ports. Can China dispatch engine parts for a J20 to the other side of the world. It’s much more than just having support vessels. And supporting a single destroyer for a Russian port visit for a jolly is one thing. Supporting during a conflict or a enduring operation with multiple vessels or aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines is a whole other ball game.
I think Reeves has asked all depts to ask their suppliers for proposals for āin year savingsā. E.g. we can ask BAE and Babcock to hang on to a few invoices for a few months until the govt can pay them: accrued accounts receivable? The govt have a peak of one time expenses like the Post Office managers compensation and the infected blood scandal and the Treasury reserve has been spent several times over. The last govt decided to cut NI and this govt decided to fund pay awards for public service workers so the credit card is maxed out. I think tax receipts will increase as we move into 2025 and interest payments on borrowing should fall so the finances look rosier.
As much as I hate to say it, the Type 052D outguns any destroyer/frigate The RN currently fields. You can bet that the Type 23 doing the shadowing has no ASM fitted.
The Jiaozuo has VLS 64 cells for mixed missile load and another 24 dedicated for short-range SAM. The type 23 (or type 45) would not want to get into a slug out with her.
Course not but it’s a matter of showing you’re they’re and keeping an eye on them.
Also sure that one frigate would have a bad time but the destroyer would quickly be completely surrounded by UK and Nati aircraft if it ever did try something, which obviously they wouldn’t.
My point is the amount of firepower these ships carry compared to RN ships, even a flotilla of 5 would be a headache to NATO ships and aircraft
Just because It has lots of VLS. doesn’t mean they are full. And they also lack any operational experience of any kind. I’d feel safer on the T23.
You can assume the same for the RN as far as missile load out goes… given the MOD’s reputation for cuts and FFBNW.
China is wealthier and has a huge industrial capacity, if they can churn out these ships every 2 years, they can certainly manufacture missiles at a rapid pace too.
Is like to see the engineering quality of these vessels and training standards of the crew. Ans how much operational flexibility the officers have on-board. Nations like China are not well known for encouraging free thinking.
The size of the Chinese navy now I wouldn’t of thought they’re have any problems sending a naval task group anywhere round the Globe š
I think we’ll see more of the Chinese once their carriers and amphibs. are fully deployable. Unless we buck our ideas up, and I’m not holding my breath, It’ll be only U.S. and Chinese task forces we’ll be watching in a few years time.
Agreed mate š
Their carrier is fully deployableā¦last year it had three deployments..one of which was a mid pacific deploymentā¦which was around 8000 milesā¦this year itās got about the same level of deploymentā¦.I very much suspect that the RNs CBG will pass a PLAN carrier battle group in the night in Indian Ocean next yearā¦.strategically PLAN are not specifically interested in the Euro Atlantic at preset..their focus is:
1) turning the china seas into a blood bath for the USN.
2) project power to and beyond the pacific second island chainā¦( taking the fight to the US and disrupting the USNs ability to deploy into the first island chain and china sea.
3) development of the power to threaten the west access to the Indio pacific sea lanes and choke points as well as protect its own access.
4) development of the power to threaten the wests access to the western Indian Ocean and the western Indian Ocean choke points and protecting its own access.
5) threatening and continuing the Indian navy in the Indio Pacific as well as the ability to penetrate any Indian navy SSBN bastionā¦
I suspect china will only deploy into the euro pacific and a significant way when it decided it needs to warn the European powers off from any future China U.S.conflictā¦.they day we see a major task group in the euro Atlantic will be a big red flag day for Taiwanā¦so I suspect a PLAN CBG into the western India Ocean in 2025/26ā¦and a major North Atlantic deployment of some kind in 2027.
I’d be watching where they are dragging their anchor chains after the Baltic disgrace tbh.
Hmmm…that timeline would be totally compatible w/ Xi’s mandate that PLA be ready at any time after 2027…š¤
Yes and this is the problemā¦china are talking very tough and saying they are going to go to war over Taiwanā¦which you could probably put down as sabre rattling if it was not for the fact they are at the same..telling their own armed forces, people and companies to be ready for war, burning trillions of dollars in capital spending on military capabilities..as well as completely warping their economy into a wartime economy which has impacted growth by about 2% a yearā¦.and launching almost constant political warfare attacks against the west..while Harding its own population against political warfareā¦all the while constantly practicing how they are going to attackā¦by literally mocking up US and tiawanse bases and practicing attacking/blowing them upā¦
Taiwan itself has said, that essentials the PLAN have now practiced essentially every element of their invasion plan..including the complete wartime mobilisation of entire provinces..and itās only a matter of time before one of the annual invasion exercisesā¦moves from an exercise to an actual invasion..(Taiwan has made it clear it thinks china will gain strategic surprise against the west..because the west is so used to watching a massive set of exercises every year..and it will not be able to tell which one is the real one)ā¦
Im not sure how much more blatant china needs to be or how much more overmatch it will gain on the USN before someone looks up and goesā¦shite we better build a bigger navy.
Quite frankly, agree w/ your assessment. Believe the die has already been cast and fateful deeds are now in the countdown phase. Do not foresee any political leaders in the West both capable of and willing to effectively marshall the capabilities of the various MICs in the remaining time available. Consider momentarily the choices for POTUS during the next four years. Cannot conceive of a method whereby either would deter either Putin or especially Xi from acquisitive plans. Taiwan will be attacked and America and its few stalwart allies will be decisively and comprehensively defeated by conventional arms. Then, there may well be a difference, depending upon the governing POTUS. Harris may well sue for terms of surrender, but Trump may well choose to end civilization on the Asian continent for the foreseeable future.
If China launches an attack on Taiwan/the USN I’d expect massive missile strikes on all the PLAN bases from both. That’ll throw a spanner in the PLA works.
Unfortunately Frank, most assumptions are that china would get strategic supprise and missile them firstā¦essentially chinas war stocks of medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles is hugeā¦infact itās one of the red flagsā¦there is little use for the amount of theatre ballistic missiles that they have in the region other than a knockout blow to the U.S. bases in the western pacificā¦.the other problem for the west in this potential missile engagementā¦is that essentially china has a continental size nation full of bases to prevent concentrationā¦the US has everything in a very small number of bases..all exposed on small islandsā¦in regards to the missile war china winsā¦
infact latest estimates of chinas stock of cruise, ballistic and anti ship missiles is in the region of 10,000. Air sea and land basesā¦
If we just look at land based its seems that china is just about doubling its ballistic missile stocks every yearā¦ as of 2022 it was estimated they had 500 IRBMs, 1000 MRBMs, 1000 SRBMs and 300+ land based cruise missiles ā¦and basically their production a year seemed to be 200-300 IRBMs, 500 MRBMs, 500 SRBMs or around 100 ballistic missiles a monthā¦ in 2021/22ā¦by 2023 Japan reported that is felt china has 1600 intermediate range ballistic missilesā¦so its again massively upped its intermediate range ballistic missile range production..
infact china happily fires off over 100 ballistic missiles a year while at the same timeā¦
The studies show that china has the stocks to overwhelm every USN asset in the western pacificā¦as well as flatten every base on day one.
Very serious. This is what we get for shifting so much of our manufacturing base to China. Also what we get for trying to get away with the minimum, or below minimum, spending on defence. Certainly past time limiting Japan with post WW2 constraints.
Freedom & international rule of law has to be defended to survive.
I was more thinking what things will be like when they have five or six carriers. As you say, three deployments last year as opposed to the R.N.’s once every four years with a handful of aircraft. They don’t have to be interested in the Atlantic but making a political point, showing the flag in our case, reinforces their capability worldwide. Anybody who doesn’t think China is a threat to the west is living in a fool’s paradise.
Now compare what would be the response of a Uk warship sailing through international waters between China and Taiwanā¦
Wot! You mean HM govt aren’t sending a strongly worded protest to the Chinese to stay out of UK waters, like the Chinese would do if we sailed through the Taiwan Straits? I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked!.
Jiaozuo is a type 052D of which PLAN has about 25 – 30 in their fleet, that is a lot of firepower.
Oh dear š
I believe they have now completed the first batch, with 27 and 28 launched in March 2023 so I think all of the 052DLs are now built fitted and being commissioned ( I think that takes them to ship 30ā¦
there are recent pictures of 5 of the 10 batch follow on order of 052DMs all fitting out in one of the two yards that build them, Dalian Shipbuilding seem to have just built five 052DLs at the same time and launched them and started filling them all out at the same time, with Jiangnan launching 2 of that batch and still building 3 which is quite frankly scary if your willing to think about the implications of that..they essentially built the equivalent of the RNs AAW destroyer fleet in one yard over a couple of years) .,
so they are well on the way of completing the new batch of 10 052DMsā¦from what I have read the final count is speculated to be a further batch of 10 taking the total 052Ds to 50 vessels and so a total of 60 for all of the 052 seriesā¦I believe Dalian has started laying down a hull for this last batch as itās already launched itās 5 from the new batch of 10..china seems to be a bit consistent in that it always orders the same number from each of its 2 Destroyer yards..and each is always building around 5 052Ds and 2 055s ( one fitting out and one on the slips..itās other two major military yards focus on frigate production.
The are now trying to market the 052D as the only advanced AAW on the open market..so it looks like they will be moving away from the 052D after the last batch and instead using it as an export hull. It also shows that even though the PLAN are ordering and commissioning huge numbers of warships..chinas years warship capacity is well over even that massive amount.
when you think this is not even their primary AAW destroyerā¦and they are now well into the second batch of the type 055..with the first batch of 8 all commissioned..Jiangnan launched hull 9 in 23 and Dalian hull 10 in early 24..both yards are now working on hulls 11 and 12..
what is quite frankly scary is china seems to be speeding up its DDG production not slowing downā¦and when you think..between 2014 and 2023 they built and commissioned ( as in they are all in service ) 25 7500 tonne 052s and 8 13,000 ton 052s..that is 3 very large AAW destroyers a yearā¦which is an insane numberā¦but in 2025 we are likely to see those seven 052s be commissioned..and possibly at a stretch the 2 055sā¦who the hell plans to commission 7 Destroyers in one year and more importantly why.
Quite where the PLAN will end up, is anyone’s Idea, I reed such silly stuff on here at times and most seem to just dismiss the Plan’s Plans as rather inadequate. Yet they are building ships and Aircraft at an astonishing rate, way faster than the USA or UK that’s for sure. They learn faster too . We dismiss them at our Peril.
This is not the first time they have sent ships through the channel yet some folk on here still dismiss it as a one off.
This action demonstrates once again that the PLAN is a true Blue water Navy. but with way more ships than the RN.
Unfortunately..many people see see the PLAN as the navy it was 15 years agoā¦the level of expansion is profoundly scaryā¦to dismiss them is not wiseā¦to underestimate the balance of power in regards to naval shipbuilding capacity is unwise as well..the west is so indoctrinated into the idea of a short war..that to get your head a round an enemy that will happy loss the opening campaign as well,as see their own fleet decimatedā¦as long as they can sink a good portion of your navy is alien to the westā¦.the simple truth is the PLAN would happy loss vast numbers of its frigate, destroyer and electric boat fleet if it can gut the U.S. carrier forceā¦it can rebuild those hulls in 3-5 yearsā¦The USN cannot rebuild its carrier fleet..
Yes, people are too quick to dismiss the Chinese potential threat in a war scenario and certainly no one on here has any real Idea. It’s all very well throwing silly comments around but the truth is we just don’t know how good a fight they would put up.
All I know is that they are happily and quietly building a massive inventory of modern equipment, Ships, Subs, Aircraft and support infrastructure and when you actually look into it like a few of us do on here, there can be no real grounds for such a simple dismissal.
If you know what they have managed in the last 15 years, you have to imagine what they will do in the next 15 years.
Most dismissed the Japanese until Pearl harbour, Malaya, Phillipines, Dutch East Indies etc.
I would expect Japan, S Korea, Australia & others to join against any effort at Chinese expansion. If N Korea attacks S Korea at the same time as a PLA invasion of Taiwan that would tie up S Korea & also much of Japan & US forces in the region.
Jonathan. As much as I agree with your reply my only problem is ‘a good portion of our fleet’ is our fleet because US and UK platforms are tied up alongside; we are in dire straights.
Time to stop shipping colour TVs and fridges.
Economic war is here and they have a head start.
The West has to gut China economically and just cut off their exports to the UK while imploring the EU and US to do the same.
There will be inflation, but, at least we will start thinking about our purchases.
Put it out there that I’m a very sad individual- I love 00 gauge model railways. I buy nothing from China.
Indeed we have to start essentially a true Cold War..exactly as we did with Russia..china is at present doing it to the westā¦every business every action is controlled and managed by the CCP to support their aim and they do believe they are in a conflict with the westā¦we need to be fighting them on the same battlegroundsā¦political, social, economic, industrial, resource as well as military industrial complex build upā¦.but we will not accept the pain.
The export of massive amounts of manufacturing industry to China was a betrayal of our own people & fed the monster that could destroy liberty worldwide.
Well done to the Royal Navy once again for securing our waters. The United Kingdom needs our Services, not just abroad, but in this country too. My dad served in the RN during WWII and Iām a proud of his service, no matter how short. To all our naval and support crews thank you.
Funny how when Chinese warships pass through UK waters it is mostly ignored by the press. Plus the Royal Navy gives a very low key report.
Quite a contrast to what happens when the Royal Navy ships passes througth or close to Chinese waters
Too worried about Strictly’ problems’. Priorities………. ?