The Clyde Infrastructure Programme (CIP) is aimed at ensuring the safe operation of submarines and supporting the introduction of the next-generation Dreadnought-class SSBNs.
According to the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) Annual Report 2023-24, the programme has retained its Amber Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA), highlighting ongoing challenges in execution.
Strategic Importance
With an estimated budget of £1.8 billion, the CIP is a key element of the UK’s submarine operations strategy. The programme aims to:
- Deliver updated and new infrastructure at HMNB Clyde to accommodate submarine operations.
- Consolidate all submarine activity into a single operating base, enhancing efficiency and security.
- Sustain the UK’s Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD) capabilities through 2067.
Despite its importance, challenges with resource availability, operational constraints, and cost pressures persist.
Key Challenges Identified
The IPA Annual Report outlines two significant obstacles affecting the programme’s delivery:
- Operational Constraints: Balancing infrastructure recapitalisation with ongoing submarine operations at Clyde presents a significant logistical challenge. Existing facilities must remain operational, requiring meticulous planning to avoid disruptions.
- Labour Market Pressures: Attracting and retaining skilled workers, particularly those with expertise in nuclear operations and project management, is proving difficult. The remote location of Clyde in western Scotland adds to the complexity, compounded by a tight labour market.
These issues demand sustained focus over the next four years as the programme enters its most demanding phase.
Budget and Timeline Updates
The whole life cost of the programme has increased marginally, from £1.869 billion to £1.870 billion, due to revised forecasts accounting for operational, inflationary, and resource-related pressures. However, the project remains on schedule, with a planned completion date of April 2032.
Delays in contract placement and a rebaseline exercise within the Coulport portfolio have pushed some activities into future years. These adjustments are part of the MOD’s cost management efforts to ensure delivery aligns with financial constraints.
Progress Amid Challenges
While challenges persist, progress has been made in several areas. The Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) analysis provided by the IPA has helped refine cost estimates and identify key risk areas, enabling better planning for the next phases of the project. The report also highlighted timely deliveries, including the arrival of critical assets at Faslane and Coulport.
Understanding Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) Ratings
The Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) ratings provide an evaluation of the likelihood of a project meeting its objectives in terms of time, cost, and scope. The Infrastructure and Projects Authority uses these ratings to identify challenges and provide recommendations for improvement. The ratings are categorized as follows:
- Green: A Green rating indicates that the project is on track to deliver successfully, with minimal risks identified. Any issues are well understood and manageable within the existing plans.
- Amber: An Amber rating signifies that while successful delivery is feasible, there are significant issues that require focused management attention. These challenges could pose risks to the project’s timeline, budget, or objectives if not addressed effectively.
- Red: A Red rating reflects serious concerns about the project’s ability to meet its objectives. Immediate corrective action is needed to address fundamental issues, as the project is unlikely to succeed without significant changes or interventions.
These ratings offer a snapshot of project performance and help ensure that potential issues are identified and mitigated early, improving the likelihood of successful delivery.
