Defence spending rise could create 85,000 jobs

A rise in UK defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP could require around 85,000 additional workers across the industrial base, MPs have been told during evidence on the delayed Defence Investment Plan.

Appearing before the House of Commons Defence Committee, ADS Defence Director Samira Braund said the scale of workforce growth needed would be significant if higher spending is to translate into deliverable capability. “At ADS, we have already modelled that if you are going up to 3.5%, that is an additional 85,000 jobs. That is a significant increase,” she said.

The figure emerged during a wider discussion about how quickly defence spending should rise and whether industry could absorb a major increase without worsening inflationary pressures or supply chain strain. Braund argued that some funding needs to begin flowing soon, but suggested that a more gradual increase would better match the sector’s ability to recruit, train and invest. “We need to see some money flowing through the system sooner rather than later,” she said, adding that to ensure “the right capability, with the right people and the right skills, it would probably need to be incremental.”

Other industry witnesses broadly agreed that a steady rise would be easier to absorb than a sharp surge. Arnab Dutt of the Federation of Small Businesses said the approach should be “more tortoise and less hare,” while Make UK Defence’s Andrew Kinniburgh argued that immediate front-loading would be most useful in areas such as research, development and preparing supply chains, with larger production increases then following later.

The evidence session focused on the consequences of the continued delay to the Defence Investment Plan, with trade body representatives warning that uncertainty is already affecting recruitment, apprenticeships, investment decisions and supply chain stability. Witnesses described a sector struggling to plan, even as ministers continue to promise higher spending in the years ahead.

Kinniburgh told MPs that long-term demand signals are essential if industry is to expand efficiently. He argued that stable multi-year commitments would allow companies to invest in productivity and capacity, helping to contain costs over time. Without that certainty, he warned, delays are likely to keep pushing costs higher and undermine the sector’s ability to scale.

Braund also linked future jobs growth to the need for clearer planning assumptions. She said industry is already preparing for expansion through trade body programmes, SME mentoring and supply chain readiness work, but that businesses still need to understand when and where funding will flow. In her view, the challenge is no longer simply policy design, but moving into delivery.