40 years since the Falklands War in 1982, conflict has once again been sparked by Argentina. However, the conflict is not fought against another opponent, but between foreign powers offering various new aircraft to the Argentine Air Force.
The competition was initiated after the retirement of the French-built Mirage fighter in 2015 due to budget restraints. In the subsequent 7 years since then, Argentina has been on the hunt for a successor, with various nations offering up secondhand fighters such as Jordan and Spain offering up Mirage F1s or Israel’s offer of modernized Kfirs. And in other cases being offered new fighters such as Sweden’s Saab Gripen, and most famously South Korea’s KAI FA-50.
However, all of those aircraft were unable to be selected due to one common factor: British Influence.
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After the Falklands War, the United Kingdom placed a full embargo upon any and all military hardware from reaching Argentina. For the rest of the 20th century, the embargo showed little to no effect upon the Argentine Armed Forces, however as nations began rearming in the 21st century, Argentina found itself with limited options in terms of its Air Force modernization. The Air Force was forced to rely on Mirage fighters and older A-4 attackers, both of which were veterans of the Falklands War.
The United States even maintained an arms embargo on Argentina from the 1970s until the early 1990s due to Argentine assistance during the 1991 Operation Desert Shield, where they committed a destroyer, two corvettes, and a supply ship as part of their efforts.
Later on, in 1998, Argentina would be declared a ‘Major non-NATO Ally’, the sixth nation in the world to receive the title after Australia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. During this time period, The United States made an offer to sell 36+6 F-16A/Bs, unfortunately, due to financial insecurities, the Argentines declined the offer.
Fast forward to 2021. After the UK had rejected Argentina being able to access dozens of
aircraft due to their British-built Martin-Baker Ejection Seats, there were only a handful of
options left for Argentina. Which includes the Chinese contender to the F-16, the JF-17 Block III. The JF-17 is a Chinese/Pakistani joint venture designed to replace older fighters in the Pakistan Air Force, as well as try and contend with the F-16 on the export market.
To the Argentines, the JF-17 looks promising, as with its cheap price tag compared to the MiG-35 (which the Russians were currently offering), it looked like the best choice. Around this time, America had appointed a new SOUTHCOM commander, Gen. Laura J. Richardson.
During General Richardson’s testimony to the United States Congress, she made an explicit request to Representatives of the Armed Service Committee that the United States should aggressively market the F-16 to Argentina in order to stop Chinese influence in ‘America’s Backyard’, even stating that the US should appeal to the UK to lower the embargo to stop Chinese influence from spreading.
Here is where we meet the modern day. The United States is currently appealing to the UK to let them export F-16s to Argentina. Most British people would immediately reject the offer, having said that, this is where the argument against Argentina becomes shortsighted. Argentina, at one point or another, will press on with the recovery of its armed forces, and even today it has various procurement programs in place to restore lost capabilities. The position in which I believe is that the British should lift, or at least reduce the severity of, the arms embargo. If the British do not lift the embargo, South America will fall further and further into Chinese and Russian influence.
Nations such as Peru and Venezuela are already using Russian-built combat aircraft, as well as Uruguay, and Bolivia considering Russian or Chinese light fighters to replace their older systems. By denying Argentina its last opportunity to acquire western-built fighters, the UK has essentially pushed Argentina to the point where it will have to acquire equipment from China.
The Argentines have held out for decades in their attempt to still keep procuring from the West, yet they will be forced to turn away if the UK continues its harsh embargo.
Here’s where the UK has an opportunity: Allow the United States to export the F-16 to
Argentina. Allowing Argentina access to the F-16 stops Chinese military influence directly in its tracks.
The F-16 is a well-known fighter in the British Ministry of Defense, so none of its capabilities will come as a surprise to the Royal Air Force, the same cannot be said for the JF-17 whose capabilities are unknown by western air forces. The F-16 would also help strengthen ties between the United Kingdom and Argentina, as the UK could be seen in a more “accepting” light by the Argentine people.
The British politicians have the last word nonetheless, and I suspect that some may see the current threat of Chinese military influence expanding to Latin America being a much greater common threat than the disagreements of the past.
Simple answer – no. What’s to then stop them once securing F16 then also going for Chinese?
Budget, for one thing. The Argies aren’t exactly overflowing with cash to be making multiple major procurements.
The question is will a few F16s prevent Argentina from falling into china’s influence… no because China will just lever the conflict around the falklands to gain influence…so unless we are so stupid and immoral as start developing a plan in which Argentina gets the Falkland it’s a bit pointless geopolitically and infact is only really about selling a US product. So let the US selll them but we want a lot for it thankyou as we would potentially need to up our air defences a bit.
Agreed.
China is already there. Late last year and earlier this year Argentinian and Chinese Foreign secretaries meet to discuss fishing rights, where Argentina granted licenced access to their waters. They also discussed and agreed on additional food supplies through beef and agriculture. This will help to bring in much need revenue for Argentina, but also food supplies for China.
Significantly, it also sets up a possible conflict. Whereby more Chinese fishing vessels will be caught in Falkland’s waters. Where they may have been granted illegal access by Argentina. From memory there is only one RN OPV stationed down there along with one Falkland Island fishery protection vessel.
Recent history has shown that China gets very belligerent defending their fishing vessels. Especially when escorted by their coastguard ships.
Given the rhetoric from the CCP regarding the Big Lizzies recent deployment. It’s a distinct possibility and a potential way to initiate a conflict. Where the CCP PLA Navy deploys, fighting on the side of the Argie b’stards. Several decades of cutting the armed forces suddenly looks very short sighted.
It is time to open up the oil/gas reserves down there and station a very large force to legitimately protect British interests. Probably a good idea to bolster Ascension too.
If Chinese fishing vessels enter Falklands EEZ then they should be treated professionally, boarded, their nets cut, their crew detained and fined and then released. If there is a consistent approach to this and the Chinese know every time they enter the EEZ this will happen they will soon stop.
You have to stand up to bullies and those like Russia that do not respect international law or international norms of civilised behaviour.
Instead of bailing out the energy sector with gigantic state subsidised support the government should just enforce an energy cap set an affordable cost per Kwh or therm and tell the energy companies they are not allowed to charge any more than that, a windfall tax on energy sector profits and then use the £170 billion saved to invest in NHS (all staff need a significant uplift in salaries as the NHS is haemorrhaging staff much faster than we can recruit) and rebuild the armed forces with a sense of extreme urgency.
A few F-16s on their own? Of course not, but as part of a wider effort at reconciliation its as good a place to start as any.
I fully agree that any plan that involves yielding sovereignty of the Falklands without the consent of inhabitants is both stupid and immoral, but this is about so much more than a US export sale (which still includes UK products, so its not like we don’t actually benefit).
We have two options. The first is carry on as we are, let Argentina become increasingly dependent on China, and have a second Falklands War break out as a proxy conflict between China and the West. The second is we make efforts to strengthen Argentina’s ties to the West, including stabilising their economy to prevent China springing more debt traps. Promote trade, promote diplomacy, obviously don’t cross the line when it comes to the Falklands.
War is meant to be the last resort, not the default position. Sitting and waiting until an Argentine government gets desperate enough to take another swing would be a shit plan, surely?
I don’t disagree the effort should be made and the F16s are just a transaction to sort through and a risk to be assessed and the U.K. does need to be provided with the correct reward against that risk, We would be taking one for the team and as an example I’m sure I’d we asked the US to just lift its embargoes around Cuba for betterment of relationships with the west we would be told to sod off so we actually would not be in the wrong to say sod off the this as we as it does create a risk ( admittedly small) to our nation.
But geopolitically I don’t think Argentinian will ever fall into the the western liberal democracies side while the falklands and it’s population are British. We really need to recognise that fact, no level of rapprochement can occur when one side will not give up its claim to using all a means to gain what is sovereign land of another nation and against the will of that population.
It’s still an open sore, which Argentinian leaders pick open at their convenience.
Sometimes nations are just going to not be friends and the only way to prevent war is for the stronger side to be willing to support the status quo, best to not support and develop the side that has no interest in supporting the status quo and will and has used violence.
I infact think if you weigh up the geopolitical tensions and if the rise of China is unabated ( by restricting its access to North American and European markets) then a second falklands conflict of some kind is inevitable ( not now and not in this decade) but I actually believe it will be simply a part of a wider longer term conflict over the resources of the Antarctic and the conflict would occur whichever nation held the falklands (someone sometime in the next 10-50 years is going to go for the BAT).
It’s one of the great future geopolitical stress points and simply the west does not have that many friends in South America as they don’t really appreciate western liberal ideas are all sore about a European population living on the falklands and are first and foremost looking for the greatest economic gain for those with power and less about stability and the greater good of their populations ( they are still at heart very much the inheritors of Power from conquests of exploitation, it’s not a judgement it simple is what it it, even the US, Canada and Australia have the same Political genesis, none are run by native peoples, but the difference is they do subscribe to our shared value system which in true is what makes the difference now).
Last point, waiting for war is a shit plan ? I would agree, unfortunately war is inevitable and the only way to prevent it on your doorstep is to be stronger that the other guy who wants what you have, while having consistent lines of foreign policy.
We unfortunately cannot prevent war, human beings make war like we breath, conflict is literally hard wired into our DNA ( the aggressive stronger organisms breeds). So when we hit a situation like the falklands there is very little opportunity for a rational way out, we can delay the inevitable and mitigate the level and type of conflict but someone at sometime will win and the other will loss.
Perhaps we should keep showing the argies clips of marines and paras as a warning to what happens when you keep poking the stick. I’m sure there must be plenty of veterans in there parliament that remember all the one sided battles they fought in and when we fight there’s no messing around. I agree with your previous points I don’t think this is going to be solved through political means, and for US foreign policy this is a disgraceful way to treat an ally for a country that already whored itself out for quick Chinese cash.
Personally I think the best way we can stave of another conflict is as long as we make it very clear, the islanders are a British population on British sovereign soil and will always be treated as such and protected to the full extent of our ability. The moment that is not the case or the balance of power changes there probably will be another conflict ( but I think China will in 20-30 years push for the BAT and other areas of the Antarctic, which will trigger conflict in the region).
Im not calling out for war but I can’t help but feel the only way the issue of the Falklands is ever going to be solved is through another one unfortunately, it’s just the Argentines will not accept the independence of the British islanders. The Chinese are already well established in Argentina having satellite ground control stations and no doubt full intelligence assimilation of key infrastructure, I’m suprised the US would expose there technology knowing full well a conflict between them is a certainty and bases on the Falklands could become key assets for the US in the future.
There is a reason why the squatter in the White House is know as Beijing biden. Inference being he sold out to the CCP a long time ago. He cares not what happens when he cashes in on the president title and retires somewhere warm.
If his son is to believe, the “big man always gets his 10%” of all family “access” deals. Apparently he is Irish and hates the British. I wonder how much he will gain from the CCP for this little ploy.
The £100bn defence spending could be too little too late.
Actually, it was Biden who supported the British against Reagan in the first Falklands War. The US believe Britain is weker outside of the EU and want us back in, its that simple.
That’s true- they already have had their referendum and that one wasn’t a hoax fudged affair it was genuine and done correctly. Overwhelming majority in favour of remaining a British overseas territory. 99.5% in favour I think. This was the only referendum Cameron endorsed that was actually useful and correct to hold. (my opinion, very emotive I know)
We know that Russia is the current active threat, that has been useful as the Ukraine war has awoken NATO from its slumber and demanded we re-invest in defence. The UK needs to rearm and quickly. We also know that in LESS than 20-30 years time in fact in the early 2030s the Chinese expect to have qualitative and quantitively equality with the US and its allies militarily and therefore we need to rearm and prepare for the 2030s. A doubling of our Navy and Airforce would be a very prudent and vital step as well as filling all the capability gaps and ensuring resilience in terms of logistics, spares, adequate munitions and the ability to replenish stores, weaponry and repair battle damage is vital.
I completely agree. So “Sod Off Argies” and anyone selling them arms. The CCP will increase their influence to tie Argentina to the belt and road nonsense, regardless. Should they be permitted to have F16 too!
Do not be surprised if a CCP PLA Navy base suddenly appears on the Argentiniana coast. Disguised as a container terminal in some strategically important location. Complete with air base and army barracks.
I assume because F16’s have British technology in them, it means we can veto any sale. Is it the same for the Grippen, with BAE involvement.
That makes good sense. However, we do not know what deals are going on behind the scenes. The current squatter in the White House isn’t called Beijing biden for nothing. Apparently the big man always gets his 10% and “being Irish” he would love to crap on the British, causing another Falkland Islands war.
There is far more going on, and much more at stake here, that simply handing back the Falklands, which Britain has been owner/protector of, since before 1833.
I really do not understand where the “stupid and immoral” comment comes from. Frankly it is a ridiculous thing to say. Britain is not the only country to have ‘oversea territories’ in far flung places.
When others decide to give back these “stupid and immoral” territories to… well whoever tries to lay claim to them, maybe stupid Britain will do the same.
On a point of order… the Falkland Islands are 1,521km or 945miles away from Argentina. On that maritime point alone, Argentina has no ‘moral’ basis, on which to claim those islands as their own.
Tom immoral comes from the fact this is not about rocks soil and occean it’s about the families that live there, That’s 3000+ human beings who put their faith in the British state, and have voted over 95+ to stay part of the U.K politic, so yes to abandon to a county that tried to invade them and would use their home for its own geopolitical gain would be immoral and a shameful act (in the same way as it would to annex the island with force or force them to become citizens of a nation they did not wish to be part of).
The stupid comes from the fact those islands are strategically important in regards to the entirety if the British Antarctic territory and all of that EEZ and land mass.
Also there is no giving back in regards to the falklands as Is the case with many other imperial territories that the European empires picked up, as most were not deserted islands and had populations. A lot of nations try to conflate the two to argue taking territory back they never owned. So the Falklands is more a discussion on which nation the population wishes to be were part of as they were never owned and uninhabited before the first settlers in 1664 for a french settlement on one island and 1666 for a British settlement on the other. So who do we in-fact give the islands back to. The owners of the islands are the 3000 so inhabitants who are almost all culturally British and look to the United Kingdom as the geopolitical entity with which they wish to be part of.
Most of the complications are actually historic smokes and mirror used by the Argentinian government over the years to rally it’s populations national ire against a British population living on a small group of Islands it has never had sovereignty over and which even its progenitor imperial power, Spain never had sovereignty over…other than via the a 1494 treaty of Treaty of Tordesillas in which the pope decreed that Portugal and Spain owned half the new world each.
As for the point of order around the distance form Argentina to the falklands Im afraid your using one of the google maps that provides air travel distances for commercial flights. The distant between the Patagonian coast and falklands is 300 miles. But even so there is not legal claim that could be made on an island 300 miles away from your own land mass unless it’s based on the population that lives their.
Thanks Jonathans, you make some good, interesting points. To my mind, the whole ‘who owns’ saga is long dead. Personally, I’d suggest a deal with Argentina. Renounce any and all claims to the Falklands now, and for good, and the UK will not block them from buying aircraft.
I doubt they would consider that, or anything else seriously, however it could then not be said, that the UK did not try to improve relations, with a hostile neighbour.
I didn’t read who owns them. The people who live there own the lands and have done for hundreds fo years. Where exactly do you suggest we up the people and relocate them to?
The US has an Empire but much smaller than Britian did during its superpower status. Philippines et al and directly iush there foreign policy to be advantageous to themselves only.
Imagine if Hawaii was taken but force by a foreign country. If the US wanted to take it back, should we all call the US stupid too? No maybe stupid is the ones that don’t understand history and the self right to determination of people’s whom have raised in said country for hundreds of years…
New Caledonia in the Pacific ocean
Also Reunion in the Indian ocean
As well as Guadelope in the Caribbean
And not forgetting Saint-Pierre and Miquelon of the coast of Canada.
Which all overseas Departments of France.
leverage – we agree it on basis we get the trade agreement with the USA. we also get to agree on what upgrades are fitted and allowed in future / what missiles and air to ground ordance.
The Chinese are good with lines of credit! Look at all the countries in hock to them.
We are in a difficult place if we cannot secure those islands and indeed any of our overeas territories from attack from virtually anyone. I would like to think that even the US would get a bloody nose. Argentina no longer have a dictatorship therefore we need to start nudging the relationship toward something sensible. They know we are not going to be bullied into handing over the islands to anyone but the islanders.We are not achieving anything by preventing them from having enough kit to defend themselves.
Strange I thought we had secured the islands. The massive air base, Meteor armed Typhoons, Sky Sabre air defence, a substantial garrison, a permanent RN presence, South Atlantic frigate/destroyer/sub. Plus a reenforcement air bridge. Add the CSG as ultimate backup and
I think the islands are secure.
We should not bend to US/CCP pressure.
Hi Rob, sorry my fault. Really what I was trying to say was that we have secured it so well that the Argeninians improving their air power by whatever means will not impact our ability to defend the islands.
To me the issue is that we need to hasten the thaw in relations between the UK and Argentina.
What we should perhaps be doing is broadening our cooperation with other powers to prevent the hostile takeover of islands unable to defend themselves. The NATO concept has proven very successful – perhaps something similar could be achieved to improve the security for nations across the world with aggressive neighbours..This might be of interest to the US, France, Spain etc. and stop Countries from even thinking about hostile action. It is essentially what is happening with Ukraine now. .
I have no problem with good relations with Argentina but so long as it claims the Falklands it IS a potential adversary.
Last time the US armed up Argentina against potential influence it was against the Russians… look how that turned out.
Argentina does not need an enhanced military and influence from China can be countered on non-military lines.
As for multilateralism thats fine but the Britain must be solely responsible for the islands defence.
A lack of money for starters.
Who would have thought that making ejection seats would give you an effective veto on fighter jet arm sales. We should sell the F16, best thing for UK forces would be a re run of 82 but now we have two carriers and TLAM. We should get Martin Baker in to Chinese jets. Help them with exports like we helped SAAB.
Jim I agree even with F16s or Chinese cheap crap jets I cannot see any conflict whereby Argentina can retake and hold the Falklands currently. Our 2 QEC mean any attack would be met within 2 weeks by 1-2 x72,000 ton carriers and a full battle group. Argentine air bases and C3 would be rapidly knocked out by F35Bs and tomahawks.
HMG just need to double down on the RN and RAF and make sure we have the forces needed to reinforce the Falklands at the first sign of trouble. Getting too a £100 billion defence budget asap and rebuilding our armed forces asap and with extreme vigour so we are ready for obvious conflict with the Sino-Russian pact in the 2030s is going to be vital.
Sorry but Argentina will never be allowed to restore their air force as the British do not trust the Argentine Government at all and unless the Americans are willing to help pay for the defense of the Falklands then the British are not going to budge
The last time, the British let the Americans worry about Argentina was the Soviet Union and they let the Americans arm them and they invaded the Falklands which cost British blood and treasure to take back, the British will not let that happen again and Americans should give up on trying to sell F -16s to Argentina
Agree with your sentiments but lets not forget the Type 42’s that we supplied them complete with mounting points for Exocet. Its easy to blame the US and France.
We also armed Argentina pre-1982 with Canberra jet bombers, bombs with dodgy fuses& probably other things. Then we convinced them we’d lost interest in the area with stupid planned Thatcher cuts.
Also the Blowpipe. One of them destroyed a Harrier in 1982.
If it did it was probably aimed at something else!!
Yes, they must have aimed something else as well when they sunk 4 modern HMS warships and 2 logistic carriers… never happened to us since 2WW. don’t underestimate those brave warriors!! Best war pilots I’ve ever seen
Sure they can have F16s. As soon as they declare that they have no claim on the Falkland Islands where 99% of the people are British and have voted to remain that way, as well as us defeating them in a war.
We should never have left the situation like this. We should have kept pressing until we had a full treaty giving us full claim.
That is the problem with this country. We try to be nice to people who use us then turn around and kick us in the back. We have to build our strength and use our power.
The Americans have to make Argentina sign a treaty stating they have no claim over the islands then we can all move on. The crazy govt there keeps bringing it up even though they lost a war over it. It is ridiculous.
I guarantee if we allow this we will regret it down the line when they attack, which they will when the govt needs a war to distract the people from its dead economy.
The Americans need to make them give up any claim. The Falkland people want to be British.
Didn’t hear a peep from UK Gov when France shipped a load of Super Etendards during the pandemic. Literally no other role than anti-shippong. Zip from HMGov.
Those Dassault Super Etendards don’t even fly anymore
The UK arms embargo on the Martin Baker ejector seats applied and as a result they are non operational so the UK govt didn’t need to say anything specific.
Yeah let the US include the FI in NATO security guarantee. See what sleepy joe says to that. 😀
That would have been true with President Trump in the White House. But not with the current clown. There is a reason he is called Beijing biden. He sold out to the CCP years ago. The question is how much will he earn from the CCP for this little ploy.
How much do you think he would earn from CCP for selling Argentina F16 jets?
$100m? Luxury apartment in Beijing?
If only there was some kind of check on a presidents earnings and some kind of government to oversee a presidents rule. Also a free press that investigates and reports on shady dealings?
Trump should of set something up so nobody could scam money from being in office.
That would be the same establishment and press, that denied the existance of “Hunters laptop from hell.” Despite knowing otherwise. The FBI had it in their possession for a year and did nothing as “not to influence the election.”
Had the electorate known the biden crime family were already doing shady deals, knowingly associating closely with CCP spies. Do you think they would have let sleepy Joe run for office, never mind win. Had the same establishment and press accumulated that much evidence on President Trump, he would be in jail.
The US self policing may have been effective at one time but not now. It’s worse than ours! Where a friend and protector of Jimmy Savel can become leader of the opposition.
The only reason we can veto it is the British made ejector seats. Do we want to give the US an incentive to develop their own ejector seat, that potentially becomes the new standard and our British company’s goes out of business?
The Argentines will restock there air force … the question is will. It be with Chinese or Western jet. It is not a question or never, just who will supply it. Better we have a jet with known capabilities, or one we don’t?
Absolute nonsense to ease any of the embargo. The Argies can (try to) buy whatever they buy. Buying is the easy part, operating and maintaining is what counts, and they are far behind on any related fast jet expertise.
Stopping the spread of China in ‘America’s back garden’ is entirely their own problem, stopping the aggression of Argentina on our territory is similarly our own problem and one we expect to continue to face on our own.
If America wants to make us a deal then fine, but don’t expect us to see the overriding necessity of enforcing its hegemony over that continent at the expense of our security.
Stopping the spread of Chinese influence is ALL of the West’s problem. This isn’t a national competition, its ideological. Democracy against tyranny.
Also, consider what the article says; the Argies are going to get new fighters. We can’t stop that, but what we CAN do is make the most of the situation to both improve relations with Argentina and enhance our own defence by equipping them with kit we know the full capabilities of. To do anything else isn’t driven by actual logic
The US doesn’t need our help defending what they consider ‘their backyard’ and I’d rather we treat the US as they treat us and get something out of them in return, such as a mutual defense pact that covers our overseas territories or at least just the Falklands.
The US has the power to completely ease our security concerns, the ball is very much in its court on this one.
In this case I think the US does need our (diplomatic) help we need to improve relations with Argentina by flexing on our demands for a moratorium on Argentinian rearmament and by starting negotiations on some sort of Northern Ireland type devolution status which would provide for the possibility of the Falklands becoming part of Argentina. The world has moved on in the last 40 years. China is now the threat.
“Northern Ireland type devolution status which would provide for the possibility of the Falklands becoming part of Argentina”
The Falklands already has devolved government, the Islanders have already voted on independence and there have been no calls for another vote, there is no desire in the Falklands to join Argentina.
I honestly think people have a duty to properly educate themselves on issues before calling for constitutional change in someone else’s home.
The fact that China is now correctly identified as a threat does not make Argentina our friend, or any less of a threat.
If we scratch America’s back they should scratch ours too.
See my reply to Jonathans. We need to find a way to move forwards. Some time ago I suggested the idea of selling Argentina some Hawks armed with AA missiles. They have the right to self defence like anybody.
They did have a home grown aircraft industry, made their own jet fighters designed by nazi german escapes.
So do we.
👍👍
Sorry Paul, cannot agree, there is no way you can compare nothern Ireland, with a native Irish population and the Argentinian claim to the falklands which is based far more around imperialism and aggression than the UKs claim which is essentially a claim based around a native populations wishes ( as the islands were deserted Atlantic islands before British and french settlers arrived the present population is the native population as they did not replace any previous population), where as the Argentine claim comes from a treaty from the high Middle Ages in which the Catholic Church divided the whole world between Portugal and Spain as the two Catholic superpowers.
Also the falklands are a future geopolitical power piece and will essentially provide Argentina with full access to a virgin continent full of resource ( the British Antarctic territory) which is why they want it……it’s a resource grab and conquest ambition with a long term aim of almost inevitable subjugation and then ethnicity cleansing by population manipulation of an ethnically British population. So no there is no moving on…unless the population of the falklands wishes to become Argentinian.
As for preventing the rise of China, Argentina will likely fall into its orbit with or without the U.K. betraying the Falkland islanders to try and buy off Argentina. In which a case we will just be handing China the keys to the BAT. We are only gong to win this Mercantile war with China by our producing them and not buying their products anymore…the west is still the worlds defacto market.
As to the question of letting the US sell Argentina jets, probably OK as they are a generation behind our airforce.
As I see it we can either help the US to safeguard and nurture Argentina as a culturally western country or we can allow a British 19th century Imperial view of the world to facilitate Chinese expansionism. The Falklands are not independent. The Falkland Islanders voted in 2013 to remain a British Overseas territory. What’s needed here is a bit of real politik. Right now our policy is all stick and no carrot.
“British 19th century Imperial view of the world” you mean the Charter of the UN?
Implying the UK doesn’t have the legal and moral high ground betrays your ignorance.
At some point someone has to make a gesture of reconciliation. As victor in the conflict that act of generosity falls to us.
That’s your excuse you’re using to tie the Islanders to a country that has recently refered to them as “a bunch of squatters”?
If we’re still respecting the pre-UN way of doing things what about vae victis?
👍👍
No, the principle of self determination must be respected. But you have to have dialogue. Trade is where you start. Sell the Argentinians some Hawks and some OPVs to police their fisheries – jointly with the Falklands. The Chinese are coming.
In this instance I think The Chinese have bigger fish to fry.
Er no. they are not policing the Falkland’s jointly with us. The Falklands are a British Overseas territory. Inhabited by native Falklander’s who have lived on the island for generations. Since 1865 I think.
Therefore the Argies can bugger off.
Hawks yes- they can buy some old Hawks off us.
Yes they can buy some OPVs but no to policing the Falklands EEZ
I think I can summarise your point of view.
“How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. It seems still more impossible that a quarrel which has already been settled in principle should be the subject of war.”
Neville Chamberlain
Well, not quite. But we have to draw Argentina in from the cold somehow. It’s in our interest, and the interest of the Islanders really
Why is the ball in our court? We’ll drop our embargo after the Argentinians relinquish their territorial claims on the Falklands
Agree
Two points. Firstly I would argue it is our interests to take the initiative and secondly the trick is to start a dialogue on a subject of mutual interest while accepting there is a difference of view on sovereignty.
It’s not necessary for the UK to resolve their differences over Gibraltar before you book a holiday in Spain or buy Spanish 🍅 s!
We should take over Argentina like we did late 19th early 20th century .we owned practically all infrastructure in Argentina, they where a peaceful happy rich country then under our guidance.all ruined by person and evite.
Read Peron and Evita
I assume you are in favour of the breakaway Ukrainian territories you join Russia?
Clearly no. The referendum is a sham.
I don’t have a big problem with the US selling a few F16s to Argentina, but I’m sorry the only 19th imperialist behaviour/view is from Argentina. The falklands are an island around five hundred miles away from Argentina with an British ethically British population that wishes to stay part of the United Kingdom. Offering them up as some form of sacrifice in a few decades to buy Argentinian support is immoral, sorry but it is.
No-one is suggesting a ‘sell out’. What we have to think about is what we want the world to look like for the children and grandchildren of the islanders. These things take generations. C’mon, the Argentinians can’t be all bad, they play rugby for goodness sake!
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So in order to secure the future of our children, you’d consign the Falklanders and their subsequent generations to subjugation by a foreign power. Because that’s what you’re suggesting; forcing them to give up sovereignty to a nation that, among other things, covered their home in minefields.
Have you got a cogent argument? You’ve suggested a devolution deal, for an already self-governed territory, with the potential for a sovereignty transfer that the population are vehemently against and violates UN law, at the same time as saying that UN law must be respected, while ALSO calling our defence of the principles behind that law outdated and imperialist.
“Subjugation by a foreign power” is the sort of language which is inimical to progress. As I say in my other posts we need to initiate real dialogue.
Why? At the end of the day the Falkland Islanders do not want to become part of Argentina. They have an unswervable desire to remain British. So why would the UK sacrifice that desire purely on the basis of trying to limit China’s role in the region?
IMO the fact that there is a stalemate in the Falklands situation is making it easier for the Chinese to inveigle themselves into positions of influence in Argentina. That’s why I think we need to do something (to normalise relations).
https://africa.cgtn.com/2022/09/29/china-argentina-pledge-to-promote-community-with-shared-future/
I’m sorry, but there simply isn’t any ‘stalemate’ as you put it. The inescapable fact of the matter is that the people of the Falkland Islands have no reason or wish to join with Argentina. It is worth remembering also that the federal state formed in 1853–1861, known today as the Argentine Republic, was formed at least 170 years after the first British colonists arrived there.
If you wish to normalise relations then convince the Argentinians that they have no legitimate claim to the sovereignty of the islands as determined by their own residents.
In order to change mindsets you have to start a dialogue, if necessary with the help of an intermediary.
As an argentinean I can tell you that our education system has been brainwashing everyone about this topic. A rising percentage of our population believes that we should have no links with the West and that we should (further) strengthen our relationship with China and Russia. For example, the government didn’t want to bring Pfizer vaccines, relying instead in Sinopharm and Sputnik. This has been APPLAUDED by lots of people.
I really don’t think that a dialogue with the British is going to be seen as something acceptable right now, mainly because of Peronism – Kirchnerism, as stated above. Alberto Fernandez (current president) is without doubts a puppet of Cristina Kirchner, someone who wouldn’t even consider a dialogue. Judging by the reactions I’ve seen when the Queen died, I think it’s safe to assume that the British government is still considered a predator by the vast majority. But this could change in the coming generations as the Malvinas fanatics finally die and people start forgetting that we once had a war with the country that essentially built our railway system.
Thanks for this perspective. It reinforces the scale of the challenge – how to counter the brainwashing. As you point out the Chinese are the beneficiaries of the mutual paranoia. Even if all we do is send a chess team or a Spanish speaking Morris dancing group….or just one tech support engineer from Martin Baker for the F-16s, it would be a start!
A shame really, the invasion of the Falklands was a distraction by the Junta to stop people complaining about their incompetence and corruption of running the country. One would think that once they were overthrown that this Malvinas islands narratives would be abolished as people would accept that they were manipulated by the then leaders. Alas as you have said, people are still being brainwashed. As far as I see it, Argentina can buy Chinese goods and be influenced, we saw how Sri Lanka ended up after being manipulated by them and building pointless infrastructure that just added debt.
I think you are missing the point here; the Falkland Islanders do not want their mindsets changing – they are Crown subjects and wish to remain as such. Argentina therefore has no legitimate claim to the Falkland Islands and as such any dialogue is meaningless.
What I am suggesting is a ( long-term) process of building a constructive relationship with Argentina which result in interior changes to the character of that country such that the islanders view of it changes ( from negative to positive).
May I ask how this could be accomplished without the the Islanders renouncing their Crown Sovereignty, an issue that Argentina will most likely be reluctant to overcome?
The issue of sovereignty has to be put to one side. For example it is not necessary for Spain to renounce its claim to Gibraltar in order for you to buy Spanish tomatoes or holiday in Spain or for the Spain to be a partner in Typhoon or for Navantia to rescue Harland and Wolf. Trade is a proven route to better relations. Add in cultural exchanges, school and university exchanges, town twinning, sports, royal visits, subsidise more flights to Rio Gallegos….the objective is to educate Argentinians that their future should be working with the west. By all means trade with China but don’t get into debt with them.
A fine idea in theory; the reality is that the Falkland Islanders (I would suggest) want absolutely nothing to do with Argentina, and have absolutely no interest in any trade relations with the country at all.
Your analogy with Spain is also flawed as Spain has never attempted to retake Gibraltar by force so there are no impediments to trade or working with them in industrial partnerships. Were they to do so I would guarantee you that position would end quite dramatically.
I am speaking of fostering cultural and trade initiatives between the UK and Argentina, where the political leaders are ( still) creating anti British sentiment in order to secure their own position. We have to go around that influence; communicating directly with the people of the country, by increasing the number and depth of cultural and trade links. It’s a long process.
As long as the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands isn’t a prerequisite for those initiatives, then I’d say go for it.
Why do we have too? We actually don’t. The Argentinians have zero moral, ethical or legally viable claim to the Falklands other than they want them because they are close. They might as well claim Chile or Uruguay as those places are closer and actually attached to Argentina.
Just because someone shouts and makes a fuss (argentina) we don’t have to do what they say or give any of their hot air an ear.
We don’t have to do anything. My argument is that it is better to do something other than dig our heels in; to engage in dialogue in support of cultural and trade exchanges so as to ease tensions in the belief that this will make conflict less likely, inhibit Chinese expansionism, improve the prospects for democracy in Argentina and prosperity all round. Obviously I have failed to make my case. Too bad, at least I have had my chance ( thanks to UKDJ). Tomorrow is another day. Have a good one!
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Ignoring democracy and selling islanders down the road for Geo politics sounds just like a 19th century imperial policy.
It’s what de Gaulle did in Algeria. All I am proposing is that we start talking and trading; the Falklands and Argentina need to start to get to know each other, as neighbours.
The issue is that Argentina does not recognise the FI government and refuses to talk to them. So what the **** are we meant to do?
Morning Jim, you have hit the nail on the head. The challenge is how to build a relationship with someone ( or another nation) when you disagree on an issue you both regard as fundamental. That’s life. I think that trade and cultural exchanges are a proven approach. There’s a view of UK history that the way we moved on from the 17th civil war and religious differences was by focussing on trade and industry; we built the empire. You start by agreeing to disagree but abjuring violence. In selling F-16’s the US is not only safeguarding all our interests in resisting Chinese expansionism, it is also acting as a mediator between the UK and Argentina through Martin Baker.
Real politik is what caused the Falklands War. We indicated we had no interest per se in the islands. Back then the Islands were just a giant sheep farm. The creation of the 200 nautical Mike EEZs and resource discovery has totally changed that.
The issue here is simply democracy. The Islands belong to their people. Their people have like Gibraltar spoken loudly and clearly.
Real politik is what Chamberlain did to the Csechoslovaks. Real Politik is what we did for Crimea, Fonbas, Georgia and Tranistria.
Are you daft? Northern Ireland is a state the FI is an independent country able to do what ever it wants. It chooses to be a British territory, even voted 99.7% in a referendum to remain so.
I’ve no doubt that Westminster would be relieved to see Ireland assume responsibility for NI. A 300 year old Union settlement which is well past it’s sell by date and which assigns a privileged constitutional status to a religious sect stands in the way.
Seriously, have you read the Good Friday agreement? Clearly not.
Well, I admit my comment is more attitudinal than politically accurate. But you get my drift.
Yes, a one sided “special relationship” is in no one’s interest. You want the embargo on Argentina lifted give us a trade deal. The US has made it very clear repeatedly they don’t have friends only interests. Time for the UK to follow suit. Time for the UK to go back to a bit more of a mercantile foreign policy like every other country. That being said US presidents have about the same amount of power these days as a constitutional monarch. Short of a free guided tour of the white house Biden has little power to give us anything.
We shouldn’t be dependent upon the US to ease our security guarantees the UK armed forces should be large enough and power enough to do that on our own with reference to the Falklands territory.
I would tend to agree. I think the F16 is too wide spread so easy to circumvent the US to keep them flying. But something old, niche, western and with few operators would mean we have control over the supply chain and therefore availability..
Tornado 😀
Good call 😀
Yes it is our problem as well. Argentina recently recognised Taiwan as belonging to China, and China responded in kind declaring that Argentina has a claim to the Falklands. It would help China no end to have the UK removed as a potential thorn in their side when the money and infrastructure starts pouring into Argentina preparing the way for the ultimate desire of a ‘Belt & road’ expansion into South America.
This already exists in much of Africa, and if more parts of South America are seduced by the financial gains to be had from China, it effects us all.
The southern tip of South America is a strategic gold mine. Not just for security but also that Antarctica will become more and more attractive to China in its search for resources, and the many efforts over the years to prevent exploitation in this very sensitive area could well be threatened.
Surely a prerequisite of arming Argentina would be them ending involvement in Belt and Road, otherwise we’re just arming an enemies vassal.
That would a good idea 👍
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The Falklands War was 40 years ago. The Chinese threat is now. Keep defenses in the area and respond to the threat.
Why does the little West think it owns the World? Well just to enlighten you, you don’t and as you have miffed everyone in South America, Africa and Asia your very likely asking for s very severe punch in the nose which appears to ge the very trajectory where the West us heading against a much more powerful International Community that is quite frankly fed up of the little West threatening the rest of the World as its their right to act like dictators when it isn’t.
I would recommend that the West behaves and has good relationships with the larger International Community so that instead of war trade prospers and tgat means all people prosper in peace and harmony.
If that is not what the kittle West wants then as stated earlier they will get a punch in the nose like what every dictator abd bully deserves but this time it will be the International Community tgat will be doing the occupying and subjugation abd Ifuess that won’t be very pleasant so why not just get on with 80% of the World instead of making the 80% of the World your no.1 enemy?
What on earth are you going on about?
As to pissing off African countries etc a good few of them are quite happily members of the commonwealth with countries like Gabon applying to join.
nice rant though.
If you say so.
Is that the rest of the world that sits on its hands and abstains regards Russia / Ukraine rather than joining in sanctions? Right!
No 1 enemy? For some reason the world wants to come to Europe and America for a better life.
Punch on the nose? With what? You are 2nd and 3rd world nations without the money, military or economic power to punch anyone, not G7 economies.
And what is the point of that rant on a UKDJ article about the F16 and the Falkland Islands, whose people wish to be British?
Sure they can have F16s. As soon as they declare that they have no claim on the Falkland Islands where 99% of the people are British and have voted to remain that way, as well as us defeating them in a war.
We should never have left the situation like this. We should have kept pressing until we had a full treaty giving us full claim.
That is the problem with this country. We try to be nice to people who use us then turn around and kick us in the back. We have to build our strength and use our power.
The Americans have to make Argentina sign a treaty stating they have no claim over the islands then we can all move on. The crazy govt there keeps bringing it up even though they lost a war over it. It is ridiculous.
I guarantee if we allow this we will regret it down the line when they attack, which they will when the govt needs a war to distract the people from its dead economy.
The Americans need to make them give up any claim. The Falkland people want to be British.
I know this is controversial but here goes anyway.
One argument is its far easier to stop F16s flying as we can push for embargo’s should things heat up. We can’t do that with Chinese or Russian kit. Its quite conceivable China would like UK tied up in the South Atlantic if they made a play for Taiwan.
The F16 is probably to wide spread so there’s a lot of operators who could supply parts. Perhaps a more niche western fighter is the answer that the UK easily influence the supplier. And if Argentina has no aggressive plans toward the UK the why would they take issue with UKs ability to block weapons and parts supply.
Ultimately we can’t stop Argentina recapitalising its Airforce and may be better to be controlling factor than an outsider.
Agree with all that. Presumably they would use weapons common to an F16 as well, ones we know about…parameters and so on.
Would F16s be much of a threat anyway? Do they have the range. Do the Argies Have tanker capacity? They will be facing Typhoon with Meteor and a sky whatever CAMM battery.
AA
The problem will be in numbers. We have 4 Typhoon and 1 Sky Sabre battery. If Argentina is able to field a fleet of F-16’s to good effect, the current defences at the Falkland’s won’t be close to sufficient.
Yes agree, but if you has access to the intelligence which would if you’re friendly with the supplier we will know if Argentina was preparing for something enabling us to bolster defences.
We have intelligence assets that can help detect Argentinean intentions.
With possession of MPA we can reinforce if necessary.
MPA and its defences are built to keep the runway open long enough to fly extra assets in to bolster the defence of the FI. Unless the Argentinian airforce got the F16 (or J whatever from China) in large numbers ,managed to conduct a undetected buildup and subsequent surprise attack the whole “attack the FI” is not going to hold water.
With the defences in place at MPA, the ability to reinforce with Aircraft and troops and the RNs SSN capability the Falklands would be a tough nut to crack for anyone.
This isn’t 1982 anymore. There is an air bridge. You can get additional troops and equipment there quite quickly if your Intelligence info thinks there is a threat.
I look at this in three ways, and cannot decide which to go with.
How about….before the UK bows to US pressure yet again.
Extraditing Sacoolas to the UK for the killing Harry Dunn, which the US still blocks because she and her husband are actually NSA, pretending “diplomatic immunity” sadly with the collusion of some areas of HMG it seems.
Biden stops putting his nose in UK affairs and causing issues regards NI / EU / protocol, which is delicate enough without his interventions which then the media pounce on like wolves to make a story denouncing the UK as the big bad wolf.
Then, we lift the embargo.
Or,
Argentina officially renounce their claim, which is groundless anyway.
Or,
We allow the sale in good faith, as I see the benefits from improving relations with Argentina, countering Chinese influence, and, in the F16, it is a short range fighter outclassed by the RAF that on its own makes little difference to the military situation. Argentina cannot retake the FI with F16s.
One good turn deserves another, does it not.
Agree on all points although I would add in the simplest option of the US signing a defence treaty to defend the Falklands.
Although the one thing they could do with fighters, regardless of any treaties we have with the US, is use them to harass the oil industry in the Falklands.
I honestly think that in this case selling F16s will make no difference to Argentina falling into china’s influence as the falklands are to much of a conflict and the U.K. would be acting in both an immoral and Geopolitically foolish way if it ever gave up the falklands unless the population asked.
So on balance all this is would be a trade, the US gets benefits selling aircraft ( jobs and money) Argentina gets benefits… stronger airforce, we get a cost… the need to up our air defences in the south Atlantic. So unless the US is willing to give the U.K. something that matches the cost… not a good idea as the benefit of selling a few ejector seats is nothing.
We will defeat China by hitting its mercantile strategy head on, so destroying its access to its key market, which is Europe and the US, not by trying to play nice with a nation that really in truth hates us and has an avowed aim to take by whatever means what is ours and subjugate a part of our population leading to its likely ethnic cleansing (by population management).
But if the US gives the U.K. something worth the cost…then ok why not as we can easily manage a squadron or 2 of f16s….but it’s still a cost to us so the pot would need a bit of sweeting.
As usual, a thought provoking post.
Agreed, under not circumstances is the FI to be given away, which I greatly feared with JC and the Labour left.
I hope KS and the current Labour front bench are more strategically aware J, considering the state of HMG at the moment! That also applies to Gibraltar and the SBAs in Cyprus, of value beyond measure.
Can you ever see capitalist Europe/US weening themselves off Chinese goods?
Unfortunately Daniele the west either drops its Neoliberal dogma and protects its own industries and markets or it accepts China will have hedgemony from the mid 21c.
Im not sure what choices our leaders will make…but I think personal profit and the needs of multinational companies will overcome national need.
It always does unfortunately.
I’m not sure what China you are talking about. Is it the one that is the 78th richest country in the world, just below Botswana with the collapsing population, gigantic debt bomb that currently has about 30% of its population under house arrest to control a cold virus? On current population trends Nigeria will have a larger population and economy than China by around 2070. India will over take China in population in 3 months officially but probably did in reality about 10 years ago.
In talking about the China which last year had a trade gap With the rest of the world of around +600 billion dollars, that is not the generated trade, that is the money that China made over and above what it imported in goods and services. China as a nation gets that every year. It’s the nation with an expected GDP this year of 16 trillion dollars.
I noted that you compared the wealth of China with the wealth of Botswana, Botswana has a GDP of 15.5 billion dollars, China’s is 16 trillion dollars….note that means China has the same GDP 1030 Botswana sized countries. the net wealth of China is 85 trillion dollars The net wealth of the whole of the African continent is 5 trillion dollars. The whole of Europe’s net worth is 105 trillion dollars and every year .3 trillion of that is lost to China, so China
The country with a population of 1.5 billions souls.It has changed it demographics ( recognised the issue of population explosion) and so is estimated by 2100 to have about the same population as the US ( both estimates to be 550 million)
As for outlook most economists agree China is very likely to become the largest economy in the world:
“China’s GDP should grow 5.7% per year through 2025 and then 4.7% annually until 2030, British consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts. Its forecast says that China, now the world’s second-largest economy, would overtake the No. 1-ranked U.S. economy by 2030. Credit insurance firm Euler Hermes made a similar forecast“
“China’s economy totaled $15.92 trillion in 2020, and market research firm IHS Markit estimates that it reached $18 trillion last year on export manufacturing growth and capital for new projects. The U.S. economy reached about $23 trillion last year, the market research firm said“
”China’s GDP for 2021 expanded by 8.1 percent, according to figures released last month by the county’s National Bureau of Statistics. The full-year GDP resulted in China’s economy increasing in value by $3 trillion from 2020 to 17.7 trillion in 2021, leaping ahead of the EU.”
What ??? China is the second biggest economy on the planet with a gdp of 17-18 trillion dollars and a net worth of 85 trillion dollars. It’s GPD is over a thousand times larger than Botswana and it’s it’s net worth is 17 time that of the entire African continent.
As of last year it’s GDP was greater that that of the whole EU and is forcast by every single economic expert to overtake that of the US by 2030.
Yes it’s population is dropping but it’s presently at 1.5 billion which is actually to mean..by 2100 it will have the same population as the US but she’d loads more cash.
at present the west is leaking money ( trade deficits) in the region of around 600billion dollars a year to China.
Its a wealth creation machine like no other…it was a third world nation 30 years ago then 20 years ago it’s GDP got to about 1.4 trillion ( 8 times less than the US) now it’s close to parity.
So I’m not sure what nation you are talking about, but you seem to have missed that last 20 years.
It has the worlds 78th highest per capita GDP. That’s how you measure if a country is rich not the size of its economy. Botswana has a higher per capita GDP. It’s population is 1.3 billion and falling rapidly and it will likely never have “shed loads of cash” It’s trade surplus has been dropping fir years and will soon begin to reverse due to its ageing population.
Sorry no that’s not great a measure and is a bit meaningless all told the best model model is PPP GDP. Which gives to total spending power of the nation ( China actually has the Highest PPP GDP, of any nation even above the US, it’s easy to look up).
so why is GDP per capital a crap way to measure a nations wealth….well…according to GPD per capital Luxembourg is the wealthiest nation on earth with Ireland as the the third wealthiest nation.
So should we be more worried about the superpowers which are Luxembourg and Ireland or that third world county called China which is in-fact somehow poorer than a small African nation…( please)
As for its trade surplus its been going up and up I suggest you actually read and review a few article its not hard. There was a blip in a few months of 2020 and the end of 2022 but, as of July 2022 its had its highest surplus ever.
2018 91 billion ( a drop from 2017)
2019 132billion (Rise)
2020 366billion (rise)
2021 458billion (rise)
2022 projected end of year 600+ billion ( rise)
it’s population decline is at 1.1% which is not an issue TBH.
Im sorry but your analysis is not standing up and is effectively meaningless when you are looking at a nation which is now a peer of Europe in regards to wealth and power and will soon overtake the US.
Hide all you want. try and make believe China is a weak nation with less wealth than a small third world nation….But Unless we in the west take China seriously our hubris ( your type of hubris) will cause our decline.
I have some interesting debates on here but actually trying to argue that China is poorer that a 70 odd other nations including small sub Saharan nations is quite the most interestingly blind to reality argument I’ve ever come across or I could be wrong, in which case someone needs to tell the US, Japan and Tiawain to stand down and stop spending so much on military hardware after all Ireland Or Botswana could handle China if needed. FFS get a grip man.
Quite simply rubbish.
Hi Jonathans,
I think you are right regarding the choices our politicians will make. Just look at the current government hanging its future and the country’s future on the idea of trickle down economics which is debunked by none other than the London School of Economics.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2020/L-December/Tax-cuts-for-the-rich
However, I think the majority of people are beginning to realise that they are being sold a lie. Even well paid professionals are finding it increasingly difficult to cope, especially if the have a mortgage or rent (most people). Most fixed rate mortgages are apparently only 2 years so have a fast turnover – only 6 months to drop many into serious difficulties… Apparently nearly 20% of British households are already face ‘difficult’ choices and in my book there is no such think as food poverty or energy poverty – just poverty…
There will be a reckoning if some kind of redistribution doesn’t happen soon. It says much if Bill Gates says he is going to deliberately take himself out of the Forbes 500 rich list by giving most of his wealth to his foundation and 100 billionaires / millionaires publically call for a wealth tax at the recent virtual Davos shindig…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62162300
https://www.reuters.com/business/millionaires-group-calls-wealth-tax-virtual-davos-2022-01-19/
Everyone is beginning to realise that things cannot carry on the way they are – except our politicians of course. But they are a bunch of dogmatic twerps – ALL of them – evidence led my *****. Most of them wouldn’t know real evidence if it slapped them in the face.
Sorry slipped into a mini-rant.
Cheers CR
Don’t apologise, that was a very good rant. I don’t disagree I think at some point we will probably need some form of social reset.
Most of the leaders of cutting edge tec are pretty clear that because the future is AI and autonomous heuristic learning systems doing most things ( they are even now better at diagnostics of complex diseases than any human consultant) we are going to need a social reset…Simply at some point we are going to truly become post scarcity society and if we take our present baggage of “your only value is in the work you do” and only some people get high rewards then society will be buried under the disenfranchised and social unrest.
To be honest a lot of our present problems are all about economics of the “some people are more deserving than others“ and the most deserving are those who make money or pretend they make money ( no CEO actually makes money for his organisation, his staff do that, but he gets millions and they get 17k) ….2 years ago the nation was clapping for its key works, When before covid many where those who are those actually aways considered to be unskilled and not worthy of being well paid.. and we are back there again….it really does piss me off. Now I’m what’s called a well paid key worker As I’m a very senior nurse with a skill set that only a few handfuls of people have in any county, so I’m ok ( not wealthy but happy with what I get) , but I look at care assistants and social care staff and it’s utterly disgraceful what our society pays these people… home care staff Who look after our loved ones earn less than minimum wage (they are not payed for the traveler between each appointment) and are treated like dirt, and yet it’s these people who will be the difference between us all having really shitty old ages or have a good old age. What is more because we treated them like dirt for years we now dont have the care staff For the number of people needing care packages and our entire health system is collapsing Under the weight of people waiting for care packages ( and starma was not totally right when he said The NHS is face down, it’s actually face down and gasping it’s last breaths). We stripped our NHS to the bone over a decade or so call efficiency reforms and have less beds than any comparable nation, which would work if we had great social care closer to home ( we only disinvested in one side and did not then invest in the other side) so the trouble is our political classes killed social care and the death of social care is now killing our whole health system, most hospitals are now running at 100-110% capacity, with around 20% of that capacity made of surge beds ( which are day clinics filled with beds and agency staff, so actually our hospitals are really running at around 130% capacity…an efficient Safe hospital should have no more than 90% of its bed capacity Full with a spare 10% capacity for peaks and the need to move people or close areas due to infectious Disease and make sure everyone is on the correct specialist Ward ( each ward will have a speciality what it’s staff are experts in and if your bed is in the wrong specially because it’s to full your chances of dying go up a fair bit) . It’s this bad because around 30% of our hospital beds are filled with people who don’t need the NHS but are awaiting social care packages, that means our EDs can’t move people to beds and become overwhelmed ( and overwhelmed EDs kill people for a pastime, I shift managed one I known) and our ambulances cannot offload, and our waiting times for 999 ambulances are also killing people ( it’s to the point where our health system is letting large numbers of people die, because we have nothing left, the decisions around social care reductions Over a decade while at the same time reducing the NHS bed base are now killing very many people in the U.K) the entire NHS staffing body from chief execs to nurses are living lives of despair as we know people are dying all the time, when they should not be and we can do nothing. Once I loved my career as I knew I was saving lives and making a difference, now I try to rebuild and patch a system that’s collapsed beyond any short term repair, in which people are dying, it’s actually indescribably horrible knowing it’s your job to make it all work and stop people dying but knowing you have no hope because the dike has a thousand leaks and you only have 10 fingers.
To be honest I don’t think people realise the true level of criminal neglect of adult social care and the fact it’s destroyed our healthcare system and the fact that at any time anyone of our loved one may now not be saved.
Even if we started Tomorrow, paying social care staff a living wage and re recruited ( 200,000 vacancies) And open the training pipeline to replace all the nhs staff lost to despair (100,000 vacancies). It will take years ( around a decade) to train them all up, rebuild and just deal with the damage to the nations health ( waiting lists and lack of preventative healthcare), and all that time people will die and suffer needlessly…..but they are not going to do that …..as they have fucked borrowing costs and reduced the tax base.
My advice get private healthcare and have 150k in the bank just incase you develop a long term condition ( insurance will drop you after a time).If you don’t have a spare 200k to pay for insurance( £1400 a year and £500 excess every time) and having that 150k buffer for longer term care….just hope you stay well and look after yourself.
I thought we all agreed to keep the politics out of it from now on.
Hi Jim
When did we all agree? And when is me expressing a hope concerning HM oppositions policies an issue?
I’m not complaining, I’d be relieved.
About two threads ago 😀
Really? Cut and paste for me please where I agreed, said, I would not state any political opinions or mention Labour or it’s leader?
From now on? There have been arguments debate here on UKDJ for years that won’t ever change whatever agreement you wrongly thought occurred a few threads ago!
We will defeat China by hitting its mercantile strategy head on, so destroying its access to its key market
China already knows this and with its made in China policy and belt and road initiative it has a longer term plan not to be reliant on the west. Unfortunately the Mr Clinton set the ball in motion and now its unstoppable.
now this is where you have to separate the bits of the Mercantile strategy. There are three things you need in a mercantile strategy and if you can affect one you collapse the strategy.
1) tec and or productivity advantage, if you can came it cheaper or better you win this bit of the strategy…so we can impact this by making better, so make sure our tec is better. We cannot win on productivity as China as a massive slave workforce.
2) resources and raw materials, this is actually what the belt and road strategy is about, Africa and South America are really not markets as the second and third world simply don’t have the money or GDP to be effective markets. Unless we are willing to spend a fortune in South America and Africa we cannot prevent China getting the resources…we should be competing more in this domain.
3) china’s big weakness is the third key bit of a mercantile strategy..security of market. The only markets that will really be able to push China to hedgmony are the US and Europe ( almost all the worlds money sits either in the first world or china). Africa and South American cannot fund China challenging western hedgmony, only the west has the money to be the market that can generate the wealth that would allow China to dominate the west ( it’s ironic as its western neoliberalism that will allow China to do that).
I disagree we can make cheaper and tech allows us to do that. AI, machine learning and automation are key to doing thus. It used to be you only automated high volume production that’s changing due to technology, developing this smart manufacturing is crucial. The other aspect the UK as whole need to get its head around is ‘What is a productive job’ we tend to get far to attached to unproductive employment and people confused someone earning more money with productivity.
But it’s around the two points, manufacturing and market. You can make all the stuff in the works as cheaply as you like but you need a market, which is why you have to pay people even if it’s just for make work. In reality most U.K. jobs are not about production and growing wealth they are about moving it around and spending, we have effectively become a very large market place and a very small producer, this is the economic incongruity we need to deal with.
the simple fact is China is out performing the west and out producing the west, we are a net importer of their produces and they are a next exporter….”can make cheaper” is not “makes cheaper”. We need to deal with the threat as it is before we then think about how it many be managed in the future.
One thing we actually need to get our head around when we get to an AI and machine driven economy is what we actually do with out population, As at that point the vast majority of the workforce becomes either not needed or not capable. But we still need social integrity and we still need to create the market place to sell the products. But that is a different question to how we manage China over the next 2 decades or so.
Actually we’re not a small producer by value we’re 9th in the world and if you work out manufacturing value per person we’re much higher up.
It’s refreshing that someone recognises the economy we’ve become though and I find it hard to understand why we continue to add people when ultimately their will be a pot of cash to redistribute from largely automated industries. So personal wealth will be directly impacted by volume of people as the pot will be spread more thinly.
Lol yes but Italy actually out produces us and we are not far ahead of Taiwan, which is not even officially a county and has a 3rd if our population. Considering we are the fifth largest economy in the world that means we are spending a lot of time buying stuff and selling services, which is nice, but service industries are easy to move and can disappear, even so we are generally running a net trade deficit of around 10% which is not sustainable as if we don’t out grow the deficit at some point you end up with a smaller national wealth pool. So in the longer term we really need to be finding 60-100billion pounds more production or services to sell to the rest of the world if we want to stay where we are or stop buying 50 billion in other countries produces ( and I’m talking China here).
what is interesting is China and its trade surplus in 2021 was 676 billion dollars, China is simply making trade surplus hand over fist and has been for a decade, and as the Chinese economy is in reality a corporatists state that’s all state wealth. What is worse is this is all coming from western democracies…so the EU trade deficit with China was 250 billion euros and the US trade deficit to China at around 300 billion dollars….al this money is fuelling their military build up, advances in the truly important sciences and tec fields as well as bribing the crap an lending the the second and third worlds on a scale the west cannot afford ( after all we keep on handing China hundreds of billions of dollars from our pockets each year).
So at the moment the economy that’s based on a massive low wage controlled peasant workforce is beating the pants off the western democracies and is going to economically, scientifically, militarily and via soft power bury them in a couple of decades. We cannot keep on giving China 500-600 billion dollars a year to spend on what it wants.
It’s much much harder to move services because they involve a lot of highly skilled people and people don’t like to move. Moving factories is a piece of piss. All the factory’s that left us and eventually ended up in China are currently moving to Vietnam and in 10 years time will be in Bangladesh. London and the UK has been the centre of the service industry world wide since the 17th century and will probably be so in 300 years from now.
Spot on.
Actually Jim moving a modern production line is not a piss as you do need shed loads of skilled people as well as massive investment in tec and tooling as well as setting up all of the just in time logistics and supply chains.
It’s why when you loss a sovereign capacity is probably lost and why our submarine construction suffered and we could not have more that 7 astutes even if we wanted more.
Getting a few bankers to move is piss easy you just offer them money and they move centres…The infrastructure they need is server based and comms which is again less complex than setting up a high tech factory.
It is your dismissal of industrialist production and awe of Financial services that will lead to the west loosing it’s position and power.
Yeah if your moving Rolls Royce Trent engine production you do. If your knocking out widgets like most factories it’s piss easy. That’s why they all left the UK and other countries constantly looking for cheapest location. That why all the high skilled stuff stayed in the UK. Moving PWC audit business, Barclays Capital or Clifford Chances legal consultancy out of the UK is hard. All have tried before and come back with entire tail between their legs as they are all staff led and staff don’t like to move.
don’t be daft, we all need to get back down the Tyne and the Clyde and start knocking big metal boxes together. Shove your design skills and high value added manufacturing sector. Who wants to be an investment banker anyway 😀
I’m not sure what your day job is but it’s clearly not an economist. The UK has about 11% of its GDP in manufacturing which is the same as the USA which is pretty impressive for a mid sized country that completely dominates services and finance. How much more of the economy do you want to turn over to manufacturing? What would be the benefit? The UK is running at close to full employment with zero capacity to spare so what jobs would you stop us doing and industries would you shut down to free up labour for this new manufacturing sector?
Actually U.K. and US manufacturing is more like 17-18 percent. The issue is the massive trade deficits every western country is running…you cannot keep running a massive trade deficit and keep you position and the trade deficit between the west and China is 500-600billion dollars a year ( that is China increasing its net wealth by at least a trillion dollars a year) that is why china’s net worth has gone through the roof.
At preset if the west does not actually start reeling in that deficit ( which is entirely based around manufacturing) then the west will loss its dominance in the world and China will become the hegemonic power..600billion dollars a year in trade deficits make it inevitable.
You can keep running trade deficits when your capital account supports it. It’s pretty complicated to understand if you don’t have a background in economics but at a very simplistic level no rich Americans move to China but lots of rich Chinese move to America. No rich British people fly to Shanghai to buy designer handbags, lots of rich Chinese come to the UK to shop. Times these interactions and hundreds more like it by many millions and you see what countries like the UK and the US can fund trade deficits indefinitely.
Chinas plan sucks, it’s stuck itself with a bunch of debts from a group of countries who are not willing to pay it back and there is nothing China can do but write it down.
china has moved from a third world nation to the 2 second biggest economy in the world in one generation, they don’t give a crap about the debt, the whole point is the nations cannot pay it back, China is financed by a western trade deficit of 600billion dollars a year, that’s money they can loss and still not be showing a deficit…they are putting the third and second world into a debt trap using money generated by western democracies trade deficits, it’s actually brilliant and is second only to the last great mercantile power to make an empire by selling stuff… the British empire.
It’s still technically a third world country although there is no such distinction in economics. It is towards the bottom of the middle income countries just below Botswana and Iraq. They only debt trap China has built is for itself. You need to get more current, everything your are quoting is form a decade ago.
No I’m quoting, the latest papers from financial journals actually. I like to read and I always keep of with the economics of the Major geopolitical players.
To me it would depend on what damage 2 squadron s of F16 could inflict .Argentinian pilots were effective in 1982 & caused a lot of injuries …do we really want to give them additional help? Yes I understand that we may have more effective defensive capabilities (soft and hard) against F16s but politically it’s surely not a good idea to sanction that sale.
Yes, let them have them. The benefits would seem to outweigh the negligible military threat.
After all, they have no navy, no “extras”…subs and so on, so no threat to the FI at all as far as I can see?
If they were to try and buy Tomahawk and some sort of long range Ashm…that would be a different matter!
AA
Until Argentina recognises the sovereignty of the Falkland Islanders to choose their own future (which they already have in referenda) then no, the UK should not acquiesce. The US would never agree to such if the situation were reversed.
Besides, Russian influence at least, is definitely on the wain right now given the overall poor performance of both their armed forces personnel and their military technology in Ukraine. If Argentina wants to waist it’s fragile economic resources on clapped out Russian kit then let them.
As for the Chinese kit, the JF-17 has inferior performance to the Typhoon anyway and Argentina would need to buy dozens of them, which they probably can’t afford, to have any real chance at establishing air superiority over the Falklands in a future conflict.
Its an interesting piece, but the true geopolitical lesson here has nothing to do with selling some f16s to Argentina as Argentina is likely going to fall into china’s orbit due to the ongoing dispute over the Falklands ( which we should never give up unless the population asks us to, it’s strategically massive and would be an immoral act against an ethnically British, native population as all evidence shows the first humans to inhabit and colonise the falklands were the french and British).
The true lesions are about:
1) The power of industrial might. If you make it you control it and if others need it and don’t make it they loss control and you gain control….this was what made the British empire the largest empire the worlds has ever seen,with what was essentially a minuscule level of open warfare, Napoleon said we were a nation of shop keeps and it was true, he said it in despair as the greatest military force on the planet was essentially defeated by a millitary minnow of a nation that was the worlds Mercantile Super power…so Mercantile/economic warfare and power Will generally overcome military might in the long game ( as the USSR, Napoleon, Japan and Hitler all learnt the hard way). Military power wins The battle campaign and even at time a war, but in the longer geopolitical game the economically more powerful nation or nation with the better mercantile strategy will win.
2) if you need it and cannot build it yourself you loss a level of sovereignty and power, if that’s to a nation that becomes an adversary your in trouble. This is why sovereign capability in science technology, military equipment, energy and other key infrastructure is key as well as maintaining sovereign wealth. It is aways a geopolitical gamble to depend on another nation for a strategically important industrial, infrastructure capability or economic dominance. This is where China has been playing the west and the U.K. has been particularly bad… we have been the most avid followers of neoliberalism than any other western nation and it’s cost us and could cost us more. Buying from another nation because it’s a bit cheaper at the detriment to your own nations sovereign industrial capability and wealth generation is geographically incongruent. It’s were are political parties have really let this County Down…wealth creation for individuals or multinations in a global neoliberal world does not benefit our individual nation unless there are watertight rules around why it would ( it once did but not anymore) so we need to rethink…I’m going to miss quote starma ‘Nation first, British.companies second, Multinational companies with a British subsidiary third, companies without any U.K. presence fourth and companies supported by our geopolitical adversaries never”. Nothing wrong with capitalism as long as we realise companies and money are amoral ( companies do not act in the best interest of a nation they act in the interest of the share holders or owners) and it’s British capitalism that supports this country and not global capitalism.
Couple of points, our access to the British Empire and common wealth made us sloppy, captive market with little competition lead many in industry believe UK Manufacturing had no peers. This attitude carried on into the 1970s, when the British public had access to better products from Europe deserted UK manufacturers.
Second point is Global Capitalism generates the UK a lot of wealth, BAe wouldn’t be one of the largest defence companies without access to other markets. When you shut down our market to close out competition you risk reciprocal measures. Not saying we shouldn’t help home grown industries but there’s delicate balance and of course defence is somewhat easier due to its nature.
companies do not act in the best interest of a nation they act in the interest of the share holders or owners
Perhaps the answer to this is to have more British people invest, however we seem more intent on portraying big business as 007 Spectra like organisations. No wonder the British public have no appetite to own part of them or if they do want shot of them!!!
i don’t have a problem with level markets, so an internal western market is fine. The problem is we have a nation with a vast serf population that it’s mobilising using a mercantile strategy to gain dominance. China is what the British empire was in its years of growth not what British industry was from the 1950s onward.
Its a choice, allow the primacy of Neoliberalism and accept likely Chinese hedgemony or develop a more cogent western led market, that protects western interest.
I agree mostly with your first point, a nation that has no or limited industrial capacity has no power. Many successive governments have failed to keep our military industries going, case in point is the Vickers tank factory closure.
If we ever have to face a country with sizeable armed forces that are peer matched in capability, then we have to be prepared for attrition, good Industrial capacity is a buffer for that.
My most rationale, peace-loving and dove-like thought on this is that if Argentina purchases fighters, they should be destroyed on the ground in an F-35 night raid
Here is my very controversial thought: Let them buy Britiish. e.g. mothballed Tornados or even Typhoons batch 1s.
A bit like the Russia/Ukraine thing. That is never going to end until Russia is defeated and a regime falls with a change of thought towards Ukraine and other countries in the West. Similarly the Falklands thing is never going to go away until Argentina recognises that the Falklands are British.
Also the British and Argentinian military seem to show a good level of respect for each other, and many Argentinians are of Welsh descent. Indeed Welsh language and education is growing in Argentina. Many non-Welsh are choosing to send their children to Welsh schools as a lifestyle choice. So my point is there is a soft power diplomatic opportunity here.
The are also hoards of Chinese (i.e Navy) fishing boats raping the oceans around the Falklands and Argentina.
So IF (big if as many Argentinians are rabid on the subject) they were to accept that the Falklands are British and wish for good relations with the UK, then we could sell them, and support in service, some of our kit.
Lol you can’t compare Argentina with Russia, we weren’t an empire like them. Do you know who was an empire? The United Kingdom
You have a reductionist vision of the history of Latin America
Sounds like my attempt at extending the arm of friendship across nations has fallen on at least one pair of deaf ears.
We are willing to shake hands, but not at any cost. Accepting that you compare us with Russia is DENIGRATING (and even more so coming from a country that conquered half the world by force)
This is all about the US trying to increase and reopen sales to Argentina. There are other ways to build good US/Argentina relations without arms sales. Also Argentina is managing just fine without a new airforce…. no one is attacking them.
The last time the US sold weapons to them the Hunta took over and the UK faced those weapons.
Why the US is keen to sell weapons to a potential adversary of an friend I am not sure on….
F16 is a slippery slope… it will be F16 plus better radar and then BVR AAMs… etc
This is simply a sales excersise for US gain….
But Argentina has the right to arm itself, and it will do so one way or another.
Postscript: how paranoid the English are. Surely they think that Argentina is still governed by the military 🤣🤣🤣🤣
As i said the British Government just do not trust the Argentine Government
But to be honest, you guys should consider yourselves lucky that the British didn’t have stuff like the CVA01 carrier as i can already imagine what probably would have on May 25th 1982 had circumstances played its hand differently with the British having CVA01s
Would you like me to elaborate?
Keep talking 👌🏻
What I suspect most likely would have happened
On May 25th 1982
the 2 CVA-01-Class carriers sent have their AWACS up and detect the 25th of May and her escort, given how much of the threat the carrier was, the Blackburn Buccaneers with F-4K Phantom 2 escorts are dispatched on a carrier strike avoiding the wind drop that scuppers the Argentine strike later that day and they hit the carrier group likely doing a lot of damage, how much is hard to say but I don’t believe the carrier would survive because her 12 40mm Bofors AA Guns are useless against a Buccaneer plus it’s hard to say how the Buccaneers would attack the carrier, bombs or Matra Martel Anti-ShM as for the escorts hard to say what happens to them
That afternoon HMS Conqueror sinks General Belgrano but whether or not the ARA Piedra Buena and ARA Hipólito Bouchard survive is dependent as we know a 21” Mark 8-Mod.4 did hit Hipólito Bouchard but failed to explode, plus we can be sure Conqueror was intending to sink Belgrano, Hipólito Bouchard and Piedra Buena
But it didn’t happen 🥱
Yeah because of decisions and factors that played against the British in the 50s, 60s and 70s
The CVA-01 Carriers that would likely be available would be CVA-02 HMS Duke of Edinburgh and CVA-03 HMS Prince of Wales as realistically the RN would have got 3 CVA-01 instead of 5
ironically Santiago if the UK had the CVA-01, Argentina would not go to war with the UK over the Falklands in the 1st Place
Well, don’t worry. We will buy jets to China, we have no problems with that; but you will have to answer to your daddy USA for ignoring his petition. Good luck
2 Questions
Is that worth being debt trapped to China?I
Is that worth annoying the Americans?
1) “Debt trap” is more of a myth than a reality. For now, no one gave anything for apparently “unpayable” debts
2) You missed my point. It is not Argentina that will make the United States angry, it will be the UK for maintaining an uncompromising position and paving the way for China. Americans know thay they can’t blame us for trading with China
Have you seen what Pakistan had to give them?
If you remember that thing I told you on the 5th
well according to retired Blackburn Buccaneer officers a Royal Navy Buccaneer air attack on Argentine carrier Veinticinco de Mayo would have the 1st wave of buccaneers unescorted attack with Anti-Ship missiles, getting in, firing and getting out then the 2nd wave escorted by fighters would hit the Veinticinco de Mayo task force with unguided-bombs with the Veinticinco De Mayo as primary target and her escorts are secondary targets
😴
Unfortunately this doesn’t concern ‘disagreements of the past’, because Argentina still claims the territory. If its government were to recognise the Falkland Islands as exclusively UK territory then there would be no need for an on-going embargo at all. The ball is very much in their court.
If they are still early-block A-versions from AMARG. Our Typhoons can wipe the floor with them anyway.
Is this the same US which refused to allow Israel to sell its old F16s to Croatia in 2019 then when that was dropped, Washington then offered Croatia in 2020 its own F16s. Lets be honest here, Washington will always put Washington first.
Argentina should be prevented at all costs to gain any type of fighter force, until they can show that they respect the rights of the Falklanders and act with some resemblance of maturity. Argentina has shown that it will do anything to antagonise us and the islanders, and there us no doubt that they will use any fighters to probe and irritate the Falklands defences. Not only would this creat a significant risk but would cause a massive financial burden on our side. Perhaps if the USA was actually a true ally they would first be putting more pressure on Argentina then us.
“Putting more pressure on Argentina”
What do you mean?
By telling Argentina to grow up and act with maturity over the issue of the Falklands and to respect the rights of its inhabitants.
Yeah, because UK is peace and love 💀
If we sell western tech to them then we still have control over its usage because they will need spares. If it came to war we would cut their supply to spares.
Ivan
But your English compatriots, ignorant of foreign policy from what I am reading, prefer not to lift the embargo. THANK YOU
Hi Santiago You must remember that Argentina made an unprovoked attack on the Falkland Isles, it is very difficult to arm a country that seeks expansionism. A simple acceptance of the Islanders right of ownership would probably open all doors for you.
Another British mistake: treating us like if we were still ruled by a dictatorship. Thank you again, China is the way
Hi Santiago You turn your face from one dictatorship to another, China is also expansionist. Democracy is about people being free to live there lives in harmony, Business can be expansionistic but countries shouldn’t. We are not against China but we take our dealings with them very seriously as I think all democracies should. At the end of the day you do need defensive weapons and if we don’t sell them then you must get them from somewhere, but for us to trust Argentina as they would like to be trusted we will look at the kind of decisions they make.
USA has partnership with Saudi Arabia and another Middle East countries that difficulty could be considered “democracies” by Western vision, and 80% of the world has trades with China. You can’t mix morals with foreign affairs.
The US state department is always lecturing the world about human rights but not a single word in support of the Falkland islands because it does not support the State departments clouded interests. If we saw some strength on the issue Argentina might realize the great Malvinas myth they spin to any party worldwide willing to listen has ended. The Argentine Government have already freely given the Chinese a Base in Patagonia that no parties are allowed access. Who takes the most fish from the Argentines in the South Atlantic, their friends the Chinese and not a word from the Argentine Government, the USA sent a vessel down to assist on illegal fishing last summer and the Argentine Government did wish for any presence of such craft. The US should support the Falklands strongly and make Argentina realize that dealing with China is at their own risk and it is much better to join US & UK interests in the South Atlantic.
Don’t be ignorant, man. To build hegemony, you must offer something in return. Today, China offers more than the US and that is why Latin America prefers it over other countries.
Also, what can they offer Argentina besides “shared values”?
What exactly do the Chinese offer you – and what exactly do you think you will end up paying in real terms.
It obvious reading your comments your underlying rationale is not just defence you are looking for what you can gain.
It doesn’t matter whether you are ruled by the military or not your government still maintains its claim on The Falklands so I fail to understand why anyone here would want to provide any assistance whatsoever to realise that claim.
We have no problems with British position about the embargo, but your daddy USA has it. They worry that Britain’s uncompromising and capricious stance will pave the way for China in South America. Talk about it among yourselves, we are going to continue negotiating with China
Continue with your devils bargain by all means. Unfortunately Argentina is ripe for the picking for China. The UK will have to reinforce MPA accordingly though.
Man UK has more serious problems. Your main city is becoming Londonistan
Is it. You best brush up on your Mandarin pal, ingratiate yourself with your Chinese overlords 😂
Lol it’s not happening, because we don’t have inmigrants taking the cities like your country has
You do realise your country is a product of European immigration and unfortunately ( mainly by the Spanish) utter destruction of the local inhabitants don’t you?
Read to me, Anglo-Saxon: ALL South American countries are sons of Spanish/Portuguese and Native people. We aren’t a product of X inmigration. French, Dutch and British people are the ones who killed native people of their formee colonies.
Besides, almost 70% of Argentine people have at least one indigenous ancestor. We belong here. The racial argument is a problem of the First World
It’s ironic that you think the descendants of Europeans who displaced the indigenous population belong in Argentina but the people of the Faulklands somehow don’t. A quick look on Google and it says 1.49% of Argentinians consider themselves indigenous but you are right in that many Argentines think they have at least one indigenous ancestor. Also Argentina is the country with the second highest number of immigrants after the US. As for “ the racial argument” I don’t know what you mean.
If your source is Google, what can I say…… 🤭🤭
Because everything on Google is untrue?
For those things, you should check the information from INDEC (organization that is in charge of statistics and censuses in Argentina). There is nothing to hide, the data is there
Thanks for this. This does read rather like a University essay, where the author is second language English. It’s a little annoying, is replete with assertion, subjection, and supposition. For eg Argentina isn’t a Nation any more than the UK is. It is a State. Nations share a common genetic heritage, language, and religion; almost the opposite of Argentina. Aside from this, there’s no mention of Argentina’s recent acquisition (for peanuts) of French Super Etendard aircraft. These ‘exocet carriers’ were used to deadly effect during the Falklands, and a batch of second hand units were recently shipped to Argentina by France. That the UK made no comment, seemed in fact largely ambivalent, sets a precedent. An important precedent; we won’t push back if Western Nato allies supply old airframes to Argentina. This might mean a defacto green light for US sales of F16, and probably ought to have been mentioned (and its impact analysed) in this piece. Thanks again.
Not quite correct. They were supplied in 2017, in another post you claimed it was during Covid. They have been nonoperational as they cannot get parts for the Martin Baker ejection seats due to the UK arms embargo.
It’s high time we nationalised the Falkland Islands company, integrated the Falklands into UK proper, and have it as a constituency with an MP in the Commons. This is what the French do. This ‘ours’ but actually ‘mostly owned by the Falkland Island Company’ halfway house is too ambiguous. Make it part of UK ‘mainland’ and be done with it. Same goes for Gib and other Bots.
Perhaps we should allow them the F16s, but only with Martin Baker ejection seats. Then secretly plant software in the seats control unit, that activates the seat when it receives the correct code!
But seriously, if the US want to make sure Chinese influence stays out of Argentina. They need to insist that part of the deal also includes them dropping their fake claim to the Falklands. Then significant aid packages can be arranged.
So basically you want to end the conflict making Argentina to dropp the claim. You are a genius 🤣
Er, yes!
I was joking. You’re a clown 🤡
So why am I a clown for stating the bloody obvious? If Argentina actually responded to legal summons and tried to argue their case. They would surely loose. To save the embarrassment of losing a World Court trial, it would be better in everyone’s interest if they dropped the sovereignty claim. If this was done, then the Country may be looked on more favourably rather than as a pariah and the UK would lift the embargo. It doesn’t get much simpler than that!
Yeah, we surely will hear your advise 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Shame, I guess Argentina will maintain its slow and steady decline into the arms of China and all that entails. Good Luck.
Thanks, and don’t piss off your daddy USA
End what conflict exactly?
Aye the folk advocating allowing a potential enemy we’ve already gone to war with in recent past to get more capable weapons platforms that could be used against our forces need to lay off the crystal meth simple as.
🏴🇬🇧
You surely also think that Argentina still ruled by a dictatorship…..
Chinese or F16 doesn’t matter could be a damned F15, nothing is escaping a locked on meteor.
It’s my understanding that the F-16 is equipped with a Raytheon seat, so this piece seems to be based off a false premise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACES_II
How does selling some F16s stop Chinese interests in Argentina? Maybe they don’t get Chinese jets. Just everything else. China doesn’t see it like they bought F16, all deals are off, close the embassy. Argentina will do what works for Argentina as they should.
More importantly there needs to be some kind of deal done to end the falklands uncertainty. Some way Argentina benefits and the islanders gain more security. Perhaps an economic sharing agreement. Falklands and Argentina split oil prospects in certain regions. Just something to move peace along.
I know some Argentinians/South Americans are still grumpy about the islands so there governments need to show there are getting something worth while.
Maybe the uk should give them a few jets, retired C130s and a few patrol ships. Why should the USA get the sale.
As I said earlier the British do not trust the Argentine Government and as far the British, their embargo is not outdated
Hello everyone, im from Argentina. I’m convinced that in 50 years there will be no interest in the islands from my country. Its alredy undergoing deep inside the goverment and the people. China is a difficult issue, since it represents a significant percentage of the money entering the country. Everything you read or hear from my country regarding the claims for the islands is nothing more than colored pieces of paper (as we say here, meaning “load of sh*t”) for electoral gains on the few who still believe in the brainless peronist governments. Chinese influence not only worries the US government, but the Argentine population as well, we do not want to end up like Venezuela.
Have a nice day guys.
👍
Thank you Pato_vj.
We can all be friends in the21st Century and share mutual respect and our history. That is the way forward. Not China, or trying to invade the Falklands again. Crumbs, many Argentinians have Welsh heritage for goodness sake.
Or I don’t know the US could put pressure on the Argentinian government to sort their problems with the UK.
Why not make the Falklands part of the United kingdom like Russia has made part of the Ukraine Russian so that we can actually bomb Argentina if it threatens part of the United kingdom ie the Falklands whats good for the goose is good for the gander
If you do that, all South America will be pushed to Russia/China arms, because it would confirm the fear of a new kind of European “imperialism”
Who ever supplies the aircraft eventually better receive a substantial upfront payment as the Argies are not exactly reliable payers; just take a look at their inability to comply with and pay their debts to the IMF.
Mind you the IMF likes to point the finger at the UK for alleged poor economics when they are so remiss in how they judge who to give money to, generally utter basket financial cases.
Don’t think HMG are to worried ,but best keep an eye don’t want to make same mistake again.🔭📡
Does or could Argentina really exercise influence over America’s ‘back yard’?
Where is this back yard?
It seems to me that this is a bit of a King Canute problem, as much as we wish Argentina never acquires new military equipment they inevitably will.
So if we can’t stop it be pragmatic and control it in a constructive way, we use that as an Olive Branch, after all we have nothing to lose and some added value to gain.
The F16A/B are old and will be a sod to maintain and to be fair they are probably beyond Argentinas requirements.
I would allow them to buy what they wanted in the 1st place which was a quantity of South Korean T50 Golden Eagles with U.K. parts.
It keeps the Chinese out of it, allows Argentina to have a decent and affordable Aircraft which isn’t too much of a threat to us, and we make some export ££s.
The fringe benefits are twofold, we can exercise control of some vital spares (Ejector Seats are pretty important if you are a pilot) and just as importantly it uses up Argentinian Pesos so limits other purchases.
Do you trust the Americans? do you trust the Chinese?
do you trust the EU? do you trust Argentina.?
remember every decision has a consequence. and might cost British lives in the future,
why takes the chance.? NO
Be careful which bear (eagle) one pokes. The US just may say one day that its reliance on Martin Baker for ejection seats is not in the US interest since it precludes certain arms sales that the US considers in its national interest. A nation with a $813 billion defense budget and the premier defense corporations in the world could quite easily remedy a dependence on a foreign nation for a vital defense asset by deciding to fund a program to manufacture that asset domestically.
Or they could be so impressed by the company they buy it. (to paraphrase an old advert).
In all seriousness that would be their answer – and our government would of course allow it.
UK should have lifted the embargo when the USA declared Argentina extra NATO allies, but you choosed to treat us as if we were still ruled by a dictatorship. Next year we celebrate 40 years of democracy, and all our democratic governments always wanted and still wanting a pacific solution. That embargo has no sense, but it’s too late now, and I’m really disappointed of seeing many British people thinking we are dangerous. You evidently don’t know my country
Coming from the country that decided it was a good idea to promote your Olympic team in 2012, by desecration our war graves.
Better than conquering half of the world by force like UK did until the 1960’s
If Argentina could of done it they would have done it. I wonder if they would of relinquished power with as much grace as the British empire.
“Yes, I’m a killer, but the rest of the people are potential killers too”. Great thinking 🤡🤡🤡
You missed the point entirely🙈
No
I have read all this interesting thread about Argentina / Falkland Islands and F16s jets. I was born and live in Argentina, and had 21 years old when the war hapened. That event was the most ridiculous, impractical and immoral idea that came up to a bunch of military trying to held in power (later condemned to life in prison for their crimes).
Discussing (again and again) about (us) gaining the sovereignity of the island is absolutely pointless and also impossible to obtain. By the way: what would mean to Argentina to have that sovereignity? What will change for the better to the poople in the streets? Would we have less poverty? I am sure that 99,999% of our population would never think again of an armed conflict with the UK for the islands. The problem is that our politicians don´t have any creative attitude to create a better plan !
I know how we can start and win (sic) a second war for the Falkland Islands: by passing a law approving a deal between the two countries, so that:
– Declare the islands inhabitants friends of this country.
– Agreeing the two countries (UK and Argentina) to jointly operate a port and a fleet to control illigal fishing in the area.
– Agreeing the two countries to jointly operate a military base (why not ?!?!?). Together we have to protect ourselves to “other” potential enemies.
– Jointly operate scientific installations regarding climate change and melting icebergs control.
– Allowing Argentina´s entrepreneurs to legally invest in every possible activity in the islands.
– Allowing Falklanders to have good medical services in the continent.
– Starting mutual turism business.
– Drastically increase flights between the islands and the continent.
– Business – Business – Business !
After a few years with these policies in place, who will think again on sovereignity? It would be absolutely meaningless. This is not surrender, it is called being practical in the 21st century.
Argentina needs politicians with clear minds (we don´t have), that see the future in perspective, having clear who will be our friend and who could be an enemy. As we are a “Major non-NATO Ally”, lets honor the title by doing the right friends. Argentina should not look at non democratic eastern powers like Russia and China (except for business!), because it is not in our blood. This country was built by spanish, italian, french and many other european immigrants. Just to illustrate: there are 800,000 italo-argentines citizens enabled to vote in the september´s Italy parlamentary elections (I have myself voted!).
If it weren’t for the fact that China doesn’t have a democratic government, this way of thinking would be also the solution to the China-Taiwan confilct (at a much higher scale of course).
Sorry if I jumped into this thread but I could´t resist the temtation of giving mi 5 cents.
Pablo
You’re entitled to like anyone else Pablo. 👍
This is really an interesting discussion…. It’s been it’s been 40 years since this conflict occurred. Just a few more years and it would be the span of the entire Cold war. It’s time to get over this and move on. How about some actual diplomatic negotiations. It is also interesting to hear the level of hatred for the United States. Not sure where that misguided opinion came from. That is the post colonial hatred from the UK that blames the United States for where the UK is in the world order at the moment. Interesting psychology going on there.
Actually I think the disdaine for America comes from more contemporary issues. Such as the fact we entered a decade long war in their defence, costing us hundreds of lives and billions of pounds and yet they never thought to include us in the “peace negotiations”. Or perhaps its because their citizens who lived in our country as guests are protected from prosecution after they killed one of our children. Also don’t forget that their current president is continously intervening in our domestic and foreign affairs to our disadvantage, due to some ludicrous personal family feelings.
Bravo.
Also we are not the ones preventing diplomacy, why don’t you share you’re views with the Argentine government who continue to antagonise the Falklanders.
Post colonial hatred? Nothing of the sort, more research by yourself needed I’m afraid. Cheers.
ChiCom overtures to Argentina are not common knowledge in US. Really don’t wish to contemplate their infestation of SA. It’s about time to break our the insecticide.
…out…
Just take up the offer buying the Indian made Tejas or refurbished F 16 provided the UK okay the deal because of the ejection seat
Who will lend them the money to buy the F16’s? Ah yes, China.
What will China want in return, alot. Raw materials, food products, access to the oceans off Argentina etc etc etc.
By selling them the F16’s it still benefits China regardless.
I do not believe that Argentina buys weapons thinking of a new armed conflict with the UK. Argentina has serious problems with the infiltration of drugs through the northern border, it has a lot of surface to take care of, patrol, Bolivia a few years ago moved the Border Mark and appropriated a few kilometers on the Argentine continental territory. The depredation of fishing on their coasts, they had to use the only operational submarine they had left to patrol the coast and it sank. Whatever the plane they buy, it is not enough to try a new conflict with the UK, in addition, the pilots must adapt to the new plane, they train in Texan II and have the Pampa as their main plane, which is an advanced training plane, it is not even a hunting, they don’t have a navy to fight. I think there is a lot of paranoia and overestimation of the state of Argentina’s defense, which is almost nil. I am surprised that no one has tried to take more territory from them. Like Chile, Bolivia or Paraguay, which are much better equipped militarily.
Because we would smash them some time later
Having access to Western weapons systems – British built Type 42 Destroyers , Canberra bombers , French Mirages and Exocets to name just a few – didn’t exactly prevent the nasty little fascist dictatorship from invading forty years ago did it ? Why do you think they wouldn’t try something again ? (regardless of where they obtain their weapons)
Because we aren’t ruled by a dictatorship. Next year we celebrate 40 years of democracy, and all our democratic governments wanted and still wanting a pacific solution. But if you still treating us in that way, UK has the problem, not us
So why did Argentina try so hard to exclude the Falklands island badminton team from competing in the South American games last year? It is not us that has the problem.
Yes the UK has a problem in that it does not want to have to go to war again.
If the ‘democratic’ Argentinian governments dont have an issue they should stop the repeated rhetoric on the ‘Malvinas’.
A “democracy” that refuses to acknowledge the wish of 99% of the FI population to remain British
Being a “democracy”, UK became a gloval empire that conquered half of the world by force. What kind of morals do you think you can teach me? Our troops never invaded another continent. Based in history, UK is more dangerous than my country
Based in history you better watch out for the Mongols. It wasn’t the UK that launched a war of aggression in the south Atlantic was it?
You stole the islands in 1833
That’s not true though is it, and even if it was is it acceptable to remove the inhabitants now?
Yes, it’s true. And with that argument, Russia could remove all Ukranians from the Donbass, militarily guard the area for 50 years and say that the new population is Russian and they can’t be taken out of there
Is it acceptable though?
That’s what UK did in the 1830’s, and that’s what Russia will do
What could I say? You are the one who has experience with that kind of problems
Was that a yes or a no then? Is it acceptable to invade and remove the lawful inhabitants of a territory?
UK did it and you’re defending it. Not acceptable for me
If it’s not acceptable then leave the Faulklands alone. Yes the Uk did it 200 years ago when Argentina had no right to be there, but the Uk still did I can admit, but what is it you are after exactly?
Lol why we should accept it? We had right to be there and you stole the islands. No deal, no ending
Let’s say Britain did wrongfully remove the Argentine residents of the Falklands near 200 yrs ago, what does that have to do with the current situation? How do you think this is going to be resolved? Do you expect the people to up sticks and leave or should they become Argentinian? What is it that you want?
I don’t know how to solve the situation, but UK started this problem. We only claim to deal PACEFULY
The people of the falklands don’t want and probably never will to leave or be Argentinian. The only peaceful solution is for Argentina to drop their baseless claim
In exchange for?
Good relations.
Thanks but no thanks
How about this proposal? The United Kingdom and Argentina go to the ICJ to determine the Sovereignty of the islands and if it applies the Right of Self-Determination and the Wishes to the current inhabitants.
Which would be a legal novelty, because if it were valid, what Russia is doing in Ukraine implanting its population and holding referendums would be legal.
In short, if the ICJ determines that it does apply the right to self-determination to the 3,000 islanders, Argentina withdraws its claim over the Malvinas.
On the other hand, if the ruling determines that there was an expulsion of Argentine citizens in 1833 and that the principle of self-determination does not apply… but only the interests of the islanders should be considered.
Both countries agree on a 150-year lease with a gradual start of the transfer of sovereignty or shared sovereignty
Argentina had no right to live peaceful at occidental island?? Uk had a only a military settlement at port egdmont (western island) between 1667 to 1774.. they leave it on 1774 with an exit agreememt with spain..
Argentina had a civilian settlement at port louis, on a diferent island houndred miles away… and they were evicted by UK in 1833 after 59 years of silence..
Argentina made his settlement in 1820 at port louis and the islands were nullis land for international law.
Give them the jets, let them get friendly with the US. We’re going to need to come to some kind of unerstanding with them about those oil strikes at some point anyway- may as well build up a bit of good will.
The reason they invaded last time was because they saw an ailing empire that had already given up masses of old territories and a disinterested UK government. They know that’s not the case anymore, they’re not going to try an armed invasion again. Eve if they wanted to, all arms of their military are a hollow shell, which a few F-16s will not change. We will have literally years of advance notice in terms of when they’ll be capable of invading again- we may as well sell them some ejection seats and show ourselves to be the bigger, more mature party in the discussion.
America needs to assess who their allies and partners are before re-arming a belligerent and aggressive country like Argentina. I think if Argentina wants to purchase sub standard Chinese or Russian aircraft, often with significant sub text in the contract around resource exploration and mineral extraction rights and the rights to base aircraft and ships in their country that is entirely up to Argentina.
I think if America does re-arm Argentina with F16s then the Falkland’s defence posture will need to be changed- Land Ceptor , CIWS/ Phalanx, Point defence lasers for Mount Pleasant and an increased defence force to around 2 companies of infantry and added armoured vehicles such as Boxer brimstone and maybe a dozen warriors would be a good idea. Also the RAF contingent down there would likely have to be increased to 8 Eurofighter typhoons and with rotational or permanent basing of a small number of F35Bs as well. I’d also make it be known that cruise missiles will be deployed to the islands to act as a counter battery deterrent- targeted and zeroed into the Argentine C3 facilities. You attack the Falkland’s and we will take out your ability to co-ordinate a hostile military action against us.
It would add significant to UK costs and reduce British military forces available for NATO and Europe- this would have to be clearly spelt out to the US to aid their fully informed decision making in this area.
This is part of the problem though if China for example did supply Argentina, the small print and contract details are the bigger issue.
Will end up with a Chinese naval base, air fields etc in Argentina which no one wants.
Good afternoon, although I think it’s a good night for you, do you think that a belligerent country would allow companies like British Petroleum or Shell to participate in the exploration of hydrocarbons in its territorial subsoil where 31,000 MM of recoverable barrels of oil are expected? Or that they explore and produce gas in one of the world’s largest reserves of Shale Oil & Gas?
Or that they participate in the extraction of lithium in one of the largest and best reserves in the world?
Excuse my English, I’m using the translator.
https://www.iprofesional.com/actualidad/370870-petroleo-como-sera-la-nueva-vaca-muerta-en-mar-del-plata
https://www.pan-energy.com/sites/en/Prensa/Paginas/Bridas-and-BP-agree-to-integrate-PAE-and-Axion-Energy.aspx
https://www.shell.com.ar/acerca-de-shell/negocios-en-argentina/exploracion-y-produccion.html
https://www.cronista.com/negocios/litio-us-1700-millones-de-inversiones-confirmadas-crece-el-interes-britanico-por-el-oro-blanco-argentino/
Let them buy them, they will be buying older blocks, absolutely no match for Typhoon, and then they will be tied into US support and spares, which could be withdrawn if they made (serious) threats against the Falklands. If they actually bought some fast jets it would at least justify us keeping a flight down there, which are currently wasted.
What a ridiculous argument – let’s give them new weapons so they don’t attack us with somebody else’s weapons. F16s are good enough to make things very difficult for the Falklands, as are Russian and Chinese jets. We defend our interests by any means necessary, via diplomacy if we can, or via direct action if we cannot. So we must resist any attempt for them to arm themselves where we have an export veto. If they want peace then they already have it. If they acquire Russian or Chinese jets then we will need to enforce the exclusion zone by military action.
It’s been 40 years… Almost the length of the Cold war. Maybe some diplomacy might be employed here cuz my god this is just ridiculous. Someone is being a petulant ass. It’s time to move on.
Perhaps as a friendly gesture, Argentina can cancel their claim over the Falklands?
Basicaly, we should accept those vintage jets in exchange of dropping our claim. Genius 🤣
I say for Argentina, they should forget about buying anything from the west because the British will try to block them. They should seriously go for the JF-17 block 3 or even the J-10C. Make the British rethink about their so-called antiquated embargo on Argentina. Besides, the JF-17 is armed with the CM-400AKG, which is a Mach 4+ anti ship Missile and the British have nothing to counter it.
What makes the anti ship missile you speak of impervious to the air defence systems the UK use exactly?
British have nothing to counter the Chinese CM-400AKG, which flies at Mach 4+ At that shocking speed, the British have nothing against it.
Sounds like the Russian Hypersonic story telling again.
It always fascinates me that they love to give out all of the capabilities of such systems but the West dont give out full range capabilities of what they have. Curious that.
Based on what evidence? Maths works both ways and no you can’t base your evidence on propaganda.
5 or 10 F16 are welcome, will serve to train our pilots with the F16 , which the RAF used to train the eurofighters pilots in exercises with nato.
Then we can acquire and add the Chinese jets like the J17 or some MIG35..
And we will have the advantages of knowing what they know well, and adding what is unknown to them.
Or combining them into attack groups to enhance capabilities.
I doubt the US will be able to sell F-16s to Argentina without the British. Although, I do think the US can because the US can sell their own ejection seats.
if it were possible for us to evolve like humanity by resolving conflicts peacefully by going to the ICJ… several billions would be saved on both sides, in addition to lives
I dont think our Economy currently could handle another event like that either.
Agreed. Better known US kit than allowing China to grow its influence.
the Falkland islander have a legal right to live in Peace and without threats, they have a right to choose who they wish to be, they freely chose to be British, end of argument,
if you believe in freedom and democracy, then end of argument,
on the other hand, if you do not believe in in freedom or democracy and think another country has a right to take you by force or violence then you are as guilty as the perpetrators who wish to steal what is not theirs, you cannot defend any country that wants to occupy another illegally or violently without their say so,
simple is it not, they have a right, so either respect that right or side with the oppressors,
thank you.
Poor Criss, you surely think we still ruled by a dictatorship
Ok but Biden and Pelosi butt out of Northern Ireland’s affairs. Cant have cake and eat it.
If the Argentinians really want to re-arm their Military, they will find a way, but even then, is it likely that they would want to have another go at invading the Falklands?
I very much doubt it.
Argentina lacks one very important ingredient in the military mix and that is the kind of discipline and determination that has become ingrained in for example, the British armed forces.Any nation that would allow capital ships to deteriorate to the extent that they eventually capsize and rot in the waters of their naval bases, has a long way to go in achieving the kind of Military standing needed to take on an established first world opponent
My knee jerk reaction is “Hell No !”. But when I think about it I come around to some logical compromise.
It’s been 40 years.
The government in Argentina isn’t the psychotic bunch of pricks they were.
I have met several Argentinians and they are nice people with no appetite for another conflict.
The military is generally run down and the state is in financial purgatory.
So a batch of say 24 F-16s would be fine. Make up two 8 strong Squadrons, have 4 in training and 4 as spares mules. But, the F-16s shouldn’t be the very latest Vipers with the some of the hottest shit available. So re-conditioned late block F-16C’s would do the trick. Some mid C model AMRAAMs and Block 1 AIM-9Xs (assuming either are still for sale). This is key, only basic air to ground / anti-ship weaponry.
There could also be a condition that under no circumstances are they they to go anywhere near UK interests, otherwise support and spares goes bye bye and the Argentine Air Force is back to square one.
It is 40 years later and key that China doesn’t get a foothold in the south Atlantic. Their usual “have this kit, pay us alter”, “what you can’t pay, never mind just sell us that naval station and we’ll call it even” must not happen.
Finally, one has to remember that the Falklands are WAYYYY more heavily defended than they were in ’82.
So all in all I say yeah, OK. A country that size does deserve the right to have some air defence capability.
If they do get the F16, we will no doubt have to deploy another flight of at least tranche 2 Tiffies, which would mean more deployments more ground crew etc, all the force multiplier stuff that goes with it. Perhaps increases costs at MPA which for the last 10 years as tried to reduce manpower to draw down costs and manning to bare minimum. Its been an effort to get spares and MT vehicles for years at an adequate level for day to day jobs.
You would probably look also at the need to open stanley or at least get it to a bolthole standard for at least a bit of redundancy, even with minimum manning which would need accommodation etc.
Perhaps Uncle Sam can sell them f16s and chip up a few bob to bolster any defence requirements in the FI due to increased perceived threat
Malvinas belong to Argentina since 1833, UK invaded and expelled the Argentine habitants at that time. They did the same thing that Russia is doing with Ukraine. Our claim will always be peaceful, never again a war, we respect the English soldier and people, but we will never renounce the sovereignty of our islands.
That’s not true at all.
The British were there way before Argentina even existed as a Republic, as were the Spanish, French and Americans. Russia Invaded an independent state just like your Junta did 40 years ago, you seem to be confused as to who is the aggressor.
You really should read up about your claims, the British
were on the islands before Argentina even existed! As an aside are you going to give the indigenous people their lands back that you took to create Argentina?
The Island belong to Spain before the Argentinian revolution of 1810. The Island are under the Argentine continental platform. The UN asked several times to both countries to dialog about the sovereight of the islands. Argentina is a poor country, The UK has only rights undrr the islands for his military power, the world is aware that the Malvinas Islands are Argentinian. The military power should not give rights over lands.
what may or may not have been the case 200 years ago isnt really the point. Britain was under Rome’s military rule at one point but that matters not one bit today. The people that live there now get to decide. So as it with the Falklands.
Hi GlynH, the People Who decided be part of Britain were inserted in the islands, something similar that Russia made Donetsk Ukraine, so that the referendum is not valid. The citizens Who lived in the Malvinas in 1833 were expulsed by the British. Sorry for my english….
If they want to part of the UK no problem, but the land belong to Argentina.
Saludos!
You are aware that for the last 20 years Argentina has transported British army UN troops in Cyprus in their helicopters. And conducted joint patrol’s on the green line. We be have diplomatic relations. We need to get a grip on on reality and make sure China isn’t going to supply their jet fighters to Argentina. If we allow F16s then it shows we have no fear of Argentina. And it will work in our favour. At some point Argentina will get fighter’s from somewhere
No, please, keep holding the embargo. We don’t want to be deceived
let them have f-16s, if they are older models they are very little threat and it stops China getting a toehold, Argentina will not be a threat for years to come.
We won’t accept garbage
Well unless you want the Americans to slam Argentina with sanctions for doing business with China
Yeah the British had to make do with stuff that would be considered garbage like the Saro Lerwick, the Blackburn Roc
If Argentina can not get F-16s which the British will never allow, Argentina will have to make do with what it has or give up your non-existent claim to British Overseas Territory then maybe Argentina will get somewhere
Lol USA can’t sanction democratic countries for trading with other States. That is a direct attack on sovereignty. The world is bigger than tiny, self-centered Europe, and has other concerns.
And no, we are not going to end our claim just in exchange for garbage. We can keep waiting, but it seems that your USA dad can’t do it, as it is nervous about China advancing because of the uncompromising British stance
Yeah Santiago, they can actually,
the USA has been threatening to use secondary sanctions to sanction India and China for doing business with Russia also the US does have sanctions on China and if Argentina does business with them, the US can threaten Buenos Aries that they will be hit with secondary sanctions for doing business with China
Yeah, we are all scared of USA 🥱
Frankly you should be as look at Venezuela to see what happens when a South American country
I don’t care Venezuela. My point is that USA can’t sanction a democratic country for tranding with other States. They have political relations with countries like Saudi Arabia (remember journalist Khashoggi) and no one say nothing about that. We don’t like Western hipocresy
Pretty sure they can with secondary sanctions but I getting the impression that you are not listening to any other viewpoint
And I say they don’t have the balls. Trading with China isn’t a crime (unfortunately for Anglo-Saxon countries)
Oh they do it passive-aggressively
should have sold them out Tornados.
Argentina needs the United Kingdom to help it control Chinese fishing predation along its Atlantic coast. If agreements are reached, a much better coexistence can begin.
Don’t see how Argentina can afford new planes as their inflation is running at 95%. Doubtful if they really need them as there are no threats from neighbours, really its folly with the state of economy !
Argue what you want fiscally and politically. We went to war to defend democracy, regardless of the cost. If you value your most trusted ally so little..
No. Why should we “ok” this? They still lay claim and expect to be treated normally. Veto any modern weaponry for them.
Why? Because next year Argentina celebrates 40 years of democracy, and all its democratic governments wanted and still wanting a pacific solution. In addition, as the article says, the British embargo affects the interest of your daddy USA to avoid the increase of the Chinese presence in South America
Obviously UK can choose to keep holding the embargo; but it would be frowned upon by the United States and Argentina and China would win
You people do not get it do you? What the people of the Falklands voted for was to remain British. Past history of your country is politically volatile and corrupt. You would like access to the seas because there is oil and gas. That is the reason the Chinese will put you into their debt for centuries. No brainer.
Based in the history of Latin America, UK and USA are more dangerous than China. It is the UK and the USA who have to clean up their reputations to win back the sympathy of the countries in the region. The ghost of China’s “undemocratic values” doesn’t scare anyone here
Buy Chinese. Then watch them fall out of the sky if you ever challenge the sovereign territory again.
Do you think a democratic government will start a war? No John, that’s what UK did when it was an empire
You just do not get it do you? The islanders do not wish to be Argie. Until that changes we stay.
We claim the land, not the people and their nationality
Doesn’t matter what you claim. What matters are the rights of the people who actually live on the islands. You talk about democracy but don’t respect it when the vote is against your wishes (as the Falkland Islanders have, decisively more than once). You have no business lecturing others about cleaning up their reputation whilst your country routinely threatens the sovereign territory of other people. Besides, the UK gets on pretty well with Chile and Brazil, and even Argentina these days.
Yeah, pretty well 🤭🤭
Mate, we do not care what you claim. You are not having it period. Those people were violated by your country. And they will be defended as long as they want to remain British. So dream on or try it again. We have a few surprises that were not around in 82 😘
And I don’t care that you don’t care. UK can’t teach anyone morality. We can wait 👍🏼
😙
I agree, it makes sense
All good, but what are Argentina going to put on the table?
Nothing. We aren’t ruled by a dictatorship (next year we celebrate 40 years of democracy) and we are part of G-20 and an extra-NATO ally. We have nothing more to change. UK is the one who has never changed. That embargo has no sense right now, and all the world know it
After 40 years of Democracy, perhaps Argentina should recognise the democratic rights of the Falklanders to live in peace without the threat of an invasion?
So between 1833 and 1982 we were not a democracy? 😆😆😆😆
Nothing. We aren’t ruled by a dictatorship (next year we celebrate 40 years of democracy)
You said it!!!
😘
Yes, I said that in 2023 we celebrate 40 years since the recovery of democracy in 1983. That’s what I said. Maybe you misunderstood something… 🤷🏻♂️
The question remains…
now that you are a democracy, are you going to respect the democratic rights of others?
Being a “democracy”, UK became an empire and conquered half of the world by force
Who are you to make me that question? My country is more paceful than yours. Stop being paranoid
Haha…
And yes, who am I to make that question…
When I was born the Empire had already gone…
When I was born, your country had a Dictator…
When I was born, I had a cousin in the Royal Navy…
Paranoid or careful…
You turned your weapons on a friend…
You attacked like the Japanese in WW2…
But that’s ok…
Why should we support Argentina getting modern weapons if even the Argentine man on the streets is unable to see that the Falklands have already Democratically chosen to remain British…
You think you are democratic, but you are not…
as long as you continue to threaten a small democratic nation you will never be….
Don’t bother bringing up the Empire, Argentinas conquest and empire building is a matter of historical fact too.
Enjoy the liberty HM forces gave you
Goodnight
typical simplistic European analysis: “you are not a democracy because…..”. Also, you guys didn’t give us ANY freedom. The dictatorship fell just the following year and for social and economic reasons (human rights violations, increased poverty, etc). If you don’t know the history of my country, try not to talk about it
On the other hand, I see that you still living in 1982. We are a democratic country even if it hurts to you. Hugs
😂😂
Typical Argentine response… Claiming something was said when it was not…
Grow up and admit the truth, the Falklands are democratic and not interested in being joined to Argentina…
Be democratic and understand that…
By the way, its 2022, finding the history of a country is easy…
So why did you lie saying you liberated us? 🤷🏻♂️
And we don’t deny the islands are democratic, buddy. We only claim a solution to the problem. What you did in 1833 will not be ignored
Again, you can’t understand the difference between Liberated and Liberty…
I said Liberty, not Liberated…
1833… lol, from an Argentine point of view? or the Historical Truth…
But that ok, why would I expect someone who fails to understand about Democratic countries and Freedom, to understand what someone else is writing…
Liberated, liberty…. the point is that you gave us nothing, Briton
And yes, we have the right to tell our part of the story. But I understand that as a good buccaneer you don’t understand it. You don’t ask
😄😃😅
Sad how you cant understand others points of view and you call yourself democratic…
Many Britons miss their empire. I think they aren’t democratic according your point of view
Hard to miss what you never had!
Plus, when is having an understanding of your country’s history, including the bad stuff, nondemocratic?
Man you’re mixing the things. I only said that you can’t say a country isn’t democratic for a simple claim 🤷🏻♂️
I’m reading what you put and responding to that.
Perhaps it’s getting lost in translation…
Or maybe you have a wrong vision of my country 🤷🏻♂️
Strange how you say that…
But my opening post was ”All good, but what are Argentina going to put on the table?”
So… the question remains?
Nothing. As I said before, we are a democracy and we are part of G-20 and an extra-NATO ally. We have nothing more to change
And there is the issue…
So, if Argentina refuses to change their demands, thereby ignoring the democracy of another country, why should Britain agree to the rearming of Argentina?
Lol we don’t really care what UK does with the embargo, but your daddy USA is advising you to change your position, not to us. Precisely it’s what the article says: UK should finally change because of the Chinese influence in South America
We don’t need anything of UK (thanks to you, ironically)
And you think the UK will listen to the USA about Argentina!!
We didnt last time…
But you guys want to sell your souls to communism, off you go
UK is nothing in the world without USA. Every year Britain looses influence
We don’t care what you think. We have partnership with China because you ignored South America for many years
And Argentina is nothing….
Now, answer the question…
Only a liar keeps changing the subject…
We may be nothing but when we want to buy some jets you start crying
the falklands are democratic, Democratic same as the Self Determination of Crimea, Donetsk , Lughanks and jason where the 98% of the people decides be russian.
Is that kind of democracy correct? invade evict population and then celebrate a referendum?
No at last, someone who knows how to ask a question…
OK, so first, tell me about this evicted population?
Between 1820 and 1833 there was an Argentine population that reached 200 inhabitants in Port Louis. In 1831 that population was attacked by the American frigate USS Lexington, the population dropped to about 100 inhabitants… and in 1833 the British, after investigating the area and seeing that it had been weakened, expelled and evicted 70%… leaving some
22 gauchos to assist them in livestock activities.
As a consequence of the British invasion, 53 people who were living on the islands returned to Buenos Aires from Puerto Soledad. The British schooner “Rapid” escorted the “Sarandí” for the British and carried in shackles the nine insurgents who had killed Argentine commander Francisco Mestivier. These were: 2nd Sergeant José María Díaz; 1st Corporal Francisco Ramírez and privates Manuel Sáenz Valiente, Antonio Moncada, Bernardino Cáceres, Manuel Delgado, Mariano Gadea, Manuel Suares and José Antonio Díaz. The schooner “Sarandí” took 17 military men with 10 members of their families (wives and children) to Buenos Aires and 17 inhabitants of the islands that worked there. The military men and their families were the following: Captain J. Antonio Gomila; Sergeant Santiago Almandos; 1st Corporal Miguel Hernández and his wife María Romero; Corporal Daniel Molina; and privates José Barrera, José Gómez, Manuel Francisco Fernández, Toribio Montesuna, Juan J. Rivas and his wife María I. Beldaño, Dionisio Godoy, Hipólito Villareal and his wife Lucía Correa and two children, Gregorio Durán and his wife Carmen Manzanares with two children, Benito Vidal and his wife María Saisa, José Soto and José Rodríguez, Juan Castro and his wife Manuela Navarro and Antonio García. Finally, the group of civilians was composed of the following workers: Joaquin Acuña and his wife Juana, Mateo González and his wife Marica, and the foreigners José Viel, Juan Quedy, Francisco Ferreyra and Máximo Warnes and a female group with their children: María Rodriguez with three children; Anastasia Romero; Encarnacion Alvarez; Carmen Benitez; Tránsita González and daughter.
The British eviction resulted in almost 70% of the population leaving the islands.
From that moment on, the citizens who lived there, including the children who had been born on the islands, were not allowed to return, following the pattern of what they did in Chagos in 1955. And here we come to the present, with an open sovereignty dispute, we will never forget what they did to our citizens whether 100, 200, 500 or 1,000 years pass.
Nice…
That is from the Argentine point of view…
Let us look from the UK point of view…
The Falkland Islands derive their name from Falkland Sound, the name given to the waterway between East and West Falkland by Captain John Strong, who spent several days in the Islands on his ship Welfare in 1690. Falkland Sound was itself named after Viscount Falkland, one of the owners of Welfare. Captain Strong was the first person to have been recorded as landing in the Islands, although the first reported sighting was by English navigator Captain John Davis in 1592.
That means the 1st person on the Falklands was British and that predates 1820 by 130 years!
The Falkland Islands have never had any native inhabitants and no indigenous people have ever been displaced, (so 100% different to Chagos) instead the Islands were entirely unoccupied until 1765, when they were first claimed by the British who established a garrison at Port Egmont.
Again, 55 years before 1820!
On 6 October 1832, an Argentine military garrison arrived in an attempt to establish sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, disregarding the British claim of 67 years prior.
Less than three months later, on 2 January 1833, the Royal Navy evicted the military base with no loss of life. The civilian population, who had sought permission from Britain to live there, were invited to stay.
The peaceful civilians were not evicted, a military garrison was ejected… to use the correct term. The civilians were allowed to remain.
Questions,
Are you aware the Argentine cowboys were employed to work on the Falklands?
Do you know who their employer was?
I would like to invite you to share a link, in which we make available our historica facts, and refute Pascope&pepper argument that in 1833 a “military settlement” was evicted as they mention
http://www.malvinas-falklands.net/book/
We have invited the United Kingdom to resolve the dispute peacefully by going to the ICJ, they have nothing to fear if things are as they say that in 1833 there was a military settlement and they did not expel a civilian population.
Quite simply, it doesn’t matter what jet the Argentineans secure. Astutes and Tomahawks will take out their airbases without loss and without Argentinian civilian casualties. They won’t even know they are there.
I must say that this group is full of emotional comments but no historic facts or knowledge of the present situation on the South Atlantic. First, let me tell you one thing: there is no international law expert in the world that does not agree that Argentina’s claim over the Falklands is legitimate. They were taken by force in 1833, the current population was implanted. Ever since, Argentina has protested in every forum there is. In the 70s, the UK government negotiated a handover. Of the 3000 people that live in the islands, 1000 are Royal Marines, 500 are low pay Chileans and only 1500 are actual islanders. But again, they were implanted violently in 1833 so national self determination does not apply to them. The Falklands are actually composed of more than 5 small islands. None of which is inhabited except for 1.
I am Argentine by the way but I oppose the war. Argentina is mostly a peaceful country. The UK by the way, is not. And I don’t mean this conflict, read about UK military actions in the XX century (e.g. Egypt). In 1994, Argetina mended its constitution as follows: 1) the falklands cause cannot be forfeited, 2) but war can never be the way to recover the islands, 3) any future solution must respect the right of the population of the islands to remain British and live by their traditions.
There are hundred different ways that the conflict of around the Falklands could be solved forever. How stupid is it that you are debating about a few airplanes when the UK is struggling to maintain its role in global politics. Why not consider more sensible alternatives like joint administration.
This comment section is wild. There is so much paranoia among both sides.
Argentina isn’t a threat to the UK or the islands. There have been 40 years of uninterrupted democracy. Nobody here would support another invasion or the use of force (when there was a poll about it, back in the early 2000s, only 1% said they would support the use of force). The consensus is that it was a foolish, immoral, and insane invasion by a murderous military regime trying to keep itself in power in the face of mass protests and strikes. The dictators responsible were tried and jailed for life.
Fact is, after 40 years of neglect, Argentina does need to boost its military. It has gotten so bad, we do not have an air force to speak of, and the navy is in shambles. One of the largest countries in the world not having a military, is also a threat to regional stability. We are having problems with drug traffic in the nothern border, and no fighters to intercept those illegal flights. And the Chinese vessels looting our fishing resources.
The fact that Argentina has been holding out for Western planes also shows our good intent. If we wanted a war we would have purchased Russian or Chinese equipment long ago, as it comes with no restrictions on ordinance. (Such as anti-ship missiles)
We must have an air force. Denying access to basic military capabilities only gives ammo to those who would prefer us to sell our country out to the Chinese.
Hopefully one day Argentina and the UK will see eye to eye. Until then I hope we can mantain at least cordial relations and not close the door on basic cooperation. Cheers.
I just found this section and OMG how shortsighted all of this is. Since when a country like UK can dictate what a country on the other side of the planet can a cannot do? That’s madness.
Also, Argentina reclaiming the Falklands using war? Never. That only happened with a bunch of drunk dictators.
This is total nonense, all these entitled comments… you should be ashamed. Those UK interventions (and the US ones) end up producing massive conflicts around the world.
Take it from a kiwi: focus on Russia, China, North Korea and leave the southern hemisphere in peace