Vladimir Putin may be fighting his brutal and costly war against Ukraine with a distorted picture of what his forces are achieving.
A Western official says there is evidence in the public domain of Putin beign given a distorted view. If battlefield setbacks are being softened or concealed, the Russian president’s calculations about how long he can sustain the invasion may rest on what are, quite simply, false assumptions.
But the assessment also raises a difficult question for Western governments, how do you influence a leader whose closest advisers may be shielding him from the reality on the ground?
The Western official was clear that he believes that Putin’s overriding concern is his own survival and that of his regime. The pressure most likely to influence him would involve people around him becoming willing to challenge him.
That offers a possible pressure point, though the official acknowledges it is “a hard thing to do, and it’s a hard thing to judge”.
Meanwhile, Putin’s ambitions remain, as ever, expansive. The official describes an objective little changed since 2022: control over Ukraine, effectively reducing it to a state resembling Belarus. That leaves an enormous gap between what the regime in Moscow wants and a settlement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine.
There is a more reassuring assessment on the risk of the war widening, however. Despite increasingly intense attacks and Russian rhetoric about European targets, the official says he sees no indication yet of the armed conflict spreading beyond Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s forces remain tied down, limiting their ability to take the war to NATO.
Perun, the Australian military procurement consultant, runs an anonymous YouTube channel to which he posted a video discussing this topic exactly.
In short, he concluded that falsifying information for personal gain is rampant with the Russian system. He also pointed to the frequency at which angered Russian officials threaten to ‘brief Putin themselves’, suggesting there is a general understanding that the man at the top is not receiving the picture of events on the front lines.
He can’t attack NATO, and won’t attack NATO. Not with conventional forces anyway. Cyber threats, the grey zone, espionage and misinformation. Yes, definitely. But I feel we are well equipped to deal with those threats. If Putin had any real desire to attack a NATO nation, be it Estonia or a pop at the UK or Poland, surely now would be the time to do it. Not in 5 years time when NATO and EU countries have got their defence spending act together and lots of new equipment has entered service. And our industries are much better placed to sustain a conflict. Personally. I think cyber attacks to our critical infrastructure is the biggest threat. Not Bear bombers coming over the North sea or the odd Russian nuclear boat hanging around. I’m sure others will have a different view.
You hope he wont attack. By all accounts as he feels his life becoming more in danger he could end up using a tac nuke in Ukraine. Russian Military philosophy talks of escalation with Nukes as a normal action. They dont see it like the West does.
I’d be very surprised if even the Russians view using a tac nuke as normal considering the repercussions.
We’ve been lied to by Labour until Burnham admitted that social security is more important than national security