Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, director of the Norwegian Intelligence School, has said allies must be prepared for Russia to cross the nuclear threshold if a shooting war with NATO breaks out, according to remarks made at the Atlantic Future Forum in Oslo.
Answering a question on board HMS Prince of Wales about imposing costs on Russia without escalation, Bruusgaard said “it might not be possible to avoid escalation” as a crisis develops, because Russian doctrine gives nuclear weapons a substantial potential role in an all-out confrontation with NATO. She said “we need to be basically prepared for Russia also actually crossing the nuclear threshold in the event that we get into a sort of a firing war”. On sub-threshold attacks, she said a lack of significant responsive action across the alliance may be part of what keeps Russia’s campaign going, adding: “I think that we should be having that discussion even more actively and perhaps even more openly.”
Bruusgaard, a scholar of Russian nuclear strategy, said the Northern Fleet hosts much of Russia’s secure second-strike capability. She said that has kept tension in the region relatively low, but the region would quickly become vital to Moscow in a crisis and the dynamic could shift rapidly and dramatically. She said Russia leans on nuclear and non-conventional tools for coercion while NATO leans on conventional capabilities, and that this asymmetry risks misperception, to the point that “we don’t necessarily know exactly where our own red lines are”. She said: “I’ve never been entirely convinced of the argument that Russia believes NATO unity is an easy target.” She added: “My impression is that they remain relatively concerned with NATO, and that it would take quite a lot for them to conclude that NATO would not respond to an action that they would take.”
Bruusgaard said bilateral deals such as Lunna House strengthen the alliance by forcing Russia to factor in muscular responses from individual allies or small groups, and that Britain’s continuous at-sea deterrent and its commitment of nuclear forces to NATO add another layer to the relationship. Vice Admiral Rune Andersen, chief of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, told the same panel that allies must relearn the art of deterrence and escalation management in the north. Britain’s defence chiefs have warned that the Russian threat to the UK is growing.
