On Russia’s build-up near Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that “we all made it very clear that there will be a high price to pay” for any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.
In 2014, Russia invaded, occupied and illegally annexed Crimea. Russia also provides military support to militant separatists in eastern Ukraine.
“NATO is providing support to Ukraine, political support for their territorial integrity and sovereignty, but also practical support with capacity-building – NATO Allies provide training; NATO, for instance, help them with . . . the reason they visited the Naval Academy in Odessa where we have NATO trainers helping them where they build their maritime forces; some NATO Allies provide also equipment and so on. So NATO and NATO Allies provide substantial support to Ukraine, because they have requested support and we are ready to provide them support. Then we also made it very clear that, first of all, this is a Russian military build-up, which is unexplained and unjustified.
Therefore, we call on Russia to be transparent, to reduce tensions and to de-escalate. If they do the opposite and actually decide to, once again, use force against Ukraine then we have made it clear and ministers made that clear during the NATO foreign ministerial meeting in Latvia today, that Russia will then have to pay a high price. There will be serious consequences for Russia and that’s a clear message from NATO.
Well, we are now very closely monitoring what Russia does and . . . and from several Allies we have very precise intelligence. I cannot go into the details. But what we see is heavy weapons. We see armoured units. We see drones. We see thousands . . . obviously, artillery. We see thousands of combat-ready troops. And we also see electronic warfare systems. And this is the second time this year that we see an unusual concentration of Russian forces, both within Ukraine – , Crimea, which is part of Ukraine – and also along the borders between Russia and Ukraine.
We are not saying that there is any certainty about the Russian intentions, but we are saying that when . . . when Russia, that has actually invaded and used force against Ukraine before, concentrates forces, combat-ready troops, close to the borders of Ukraine and we also see a significant increase in aggressive rhetoric, including on social media, it will be irresponsible to rule out the possibility that Russia wants again to use force. We . . . we call on them to not do that. But we need also to be realistic and realise that that’s absolutely a possibility.”
Read the Secretary General’s full interview here.
Whilst Russia is rattling it’s sabre the rest of the West is gently waving it’s foil.
You are too old fashioned. Just wait till we unleash our transgender “cyber” warriors on those Russian armoured units, they won’t know what hit them 🙁
We could do with the “Cybermen” or is it “Cyberpersons” from Dr. Who!
I wonder when drones will start taking to the battle field like in Robocop. Considering Boston Dynamics’ spectacular achievements, and I’m sure many like them around the world, it will only be a matter of a few short years.
What then for infantry?
Gender free they or them now Ian. No outlandish ideas about persons please.
I kind of think there needs to be a unicorn rainbow there somewhere.
I saw a meme on YouTube contrasting Russian and US recruitment videos. The former was serious and intense, the latter’s a LGBT promotional.
One came away thinking – damn, we’re screwed.
You must be a Russian troll they tend to have obsession’s with trans gay people , Russia seems to have a lot of repressed gays.
You seem to keep yourself well informed on the Russian gay community Dave
But Russia has no gays Ulya its against the law 🙂
You have been speaking to one for several years now Dave so I can confirm it is not against the law, but I will admit it is not exactly easy in Russian culture and even worse if Muslim. But with you being expert on all things Russian I assume you know this 😉
I stand corrected 👍
I flagged this thinking this was an attempt to insult Dave and was bigoted but reading later posts I realise I was wrong
Hello Damo, to bee fair to Dave I was just teasing him in my first comment, my second comment is not something I am in the habit of discussing
Those of us who have conversed with you long enough here should be aware of it. You’d mentioned to me too on a few occasions.
No issues from me. 👍
I did not realise I had mentioned it before, I have always tried to be careful with my language even though it makes little difference here but with me working in Iran etc obviously a issue if careless. Thank you Daniele
My dig was at jacks ignorant comment , but admit I came across ignorant myself as for Ulya its what she said it is .
Dave, I do not understand what “jacks” mean but I hope you do not feel bad about your comment, I know things are more sensitive in your part of the world but with me I enjoy our banter when I get time for it
UK banter is strong Ulya but its seems we have to be careful in the online world nowadays. I can guarantee jack is not from the UK to come out with that comment that’s for sure.
Any swordsman will tell you the point of a sword such as a foil is faster and deadly than the slash of a sabre blade edge. This is why the current British sabre pattern, from 1908 has a straight blade.
The EU is talking again about its 5000 man intervention unit (again – hot air is cheap it seems) but only by 2025!
I’d be interested to know what capability Russia has of sustaining an attack on Ukraine. Obviously Putin has done a lot of posturing in advance of his summit with Biden to squeeze out concessions, and that’s probably his real aim – a free hand in Ukraine as part of some sort of latter day Czecho ’38 deal. But I wonder how much is carefully constructed hype and what real capability the Russians would have to sustain a major engagement if the US put it’s air power at the disposal of Ukraine.
I also think we are now paying the price of allowing Putin a free hand in Syria, which is beginning to look more like a corollary of the Spanish Civil War. That sent him all the wrong messages.
A “corollary”, is that like a heart attack?😁
The west’s inaction left room for Putin to step in & allowed Assad to survive & exterminate every Syrian who wanted a better future for their country.
This Deployment is a massive undertaking, even for Russia with it’s Large Armed Forces,with up to 50% of its Land Component already committed or scheduled to be so.If the US put it’s Airpower at Ukraine’s disposal that would be a game changer for sure but i fail to see any circumstances where that is likely to be the case.
If the US put its air power at Ukraine’s disposal that would be a game changer alright … and we would be on the edge of nuclear war over Ukraine. And that is precisely why the Russians believe NATO is bluffing.
Nuclear war works in two directions, that is the point of deterrents.
NATO has not said anything – so what is the bluff? If anyone it’s Russia that is bluffing.
The bluff is that NATO has nowhere near the military capability, let alone the political will, to risk general war in a country that is not vital to the Alliance. NATO cannot stop the Russians in Ukraine without risking a nuclear confrontation. There are many countries in the Alliance who have absolutely no interest in risking any kind of war over Ukraine.
The risk for Russia in turn is becoming embroiled in a Ukrainian guagmire while simultaneously facing massive international sanctions. All that to say, hopefully cooler heads will prevail.
Nato with all countries combined out number vastly Russia. Even with all the cut backs of nato actually activated fully on a section5 or whatever they call it would be game over. What would worry me would be nato fragmenting as certain countries avoid commitments
Also they claimed a vast military superiority in Cold War to Nato and guess what turned out to be propaganda like the missle gap, bomber gap and the tank gap
Trouble is NATO countries have been fanatically divesting itself of serious war fighting equipment & manpower for the last 30 years. Our weakness & inability to stand up to the growing tide of authoritarian states is laying the foundations for the demise of freedom worldwide. We can fail to act when nations are overtaken by bullying neighbors but eventually we will have to face up to them or become extinct ourselves. Just limiting ourselves to increasing sanctions pushes aggressors to the point of miscalculation or just thinking they have to start direct wars to recover the resources they need, just… Read more »
Totally agree a strong military signals to the other side that they can’t win so no point trying it. The peace dividend is long over
Was there really a tank gap? I don’t recall that was confirmed.
Well turned out there was no bomber or missle gap either
Do you really believe that Putin & Co would want to ruin their lives of luxury in palaces etc, with a nuclear war just over Ukraine?
I don’t think so!
This issue really requires a reading of Russian military doctrine concerning the employment of nuclear weapons and how it regards the likelihood of escalation with a peer adversary. If the Russians cross the frontier into Ukraine, your analysis will have already failed.
Once conflict breaks out, it will be difficult to manage escalation. This is why I don’t think NATO will ultimately oppose an attack – if launched – and it may well be willing to head one off with concessions to Russia. But we shall see.
My analysis still stands if the Russians were to threaten to use Nukes first. The US & UK could beat them if conflict is kept conventional
Russian doctrine generally rejects the notion that war with peer adversaries can remain conventional. So theres that. But even in a conventional sense, there is one American brigade in Germany and another in Italy. The total strength of the British army (world wide) is 76,000. … the Russians have three armies in the Western Military District and another three in the Southern Military District. There is another Russian corps in Crimea. The US would have to deploy the whole if its air power to Europe – leaving an area like the Pacific completely vulnerable. The RAF – besides deploying a… Read more »
So that’s why a Repub. senator called on the US to prepare to launch a first strike on Russia?
Sounds like a very reasonable winning proposition for the entire world. I hear that Roger Wicker is changing his name to General “Jack D Ripper”.
Based on what I’ve read from some very knowledgeable people on the Russian military, there is enough capability there to support and sustain a total invasion of Ukraine. It’s unlikely that’s the goal and it doesn’t look like Putin has decided what he wants to do next but it seems the military is getting prepared for whatever he decides. It should also be stated that it’s almost a certainty that the US or NATO will not get into a shooting war with Russia over Ukraine.
I think you will prove to be wrong on the latter point. The goal is obviously to secure Eastern Ukraine as part of Russia, preferably via threats and diplomacy, but by force if necessary.
It’s all about Russia wanting to shorten the amount of space it has to defend, all you have to do is look at the map to see it makes sense
Defend from who? It’s like the UK saying it has to defend it’s borders from the EU, therefore invade Ireland. I doubt the UK would be given an international ‘ok that’s alright then, given Brexit’ for taking away another nation’s sovereignty. Total BS – Putin wants to recreate the Russian Empire.
Substantially more capability than most Western nations, at least from a purely military-industrial perspective. Russian stocks of ammunition, spares, and reserve equipment are far greater, and strategically important primary industries and the defence sector are expected to maintain 3 months worth of raw materials so that production can go on unhindered in the event of import or supply restrictions. No, “just in time” system for them.
Yes but that was the case in the Cold War, but it turned out to be complete BS.
Cold war western estimates of Soviet strength were often wrong, through error or sometimes deliberately to secure funding. But I would say it’s now clear that Russia has greater strength in depth and industrial resilience than Western Europe (the USA is a different matter). In a large scale engagement in Ukraine we would run out of ammunition, particularly high-end, very quickly. We would also have to make difficult choices about how much attrition we could accept of high-end assets like aviation. Full commitment and concurrent losses may be able to decisively blunt a Russian attack, but if it failed we… Read more »
Could you provide a link to Russian resilience in industrial capacity?
I’m not downplaying the Russian threat, Putin is a lunatic so he’s capable of irrational decisions. Yet it’s in his interest that both his people and NATO see Russia as a war winning machine. So he will play that up. You will really have to provide some evidence for Russian industrial resilience – that does not chime with me. As far as trousers go, it’s been the West not Russia that has worn them for the past 30 years.
Agree,with the complexities of modern Military Hardware it would be difficult if not completely impossible to ramp up any available production capacity to replace losses.I wonder how our esteemed ( being very generous here ) Politicians would react in a National Emergency if the Military was forced to scour Museums and Private Collectors for Specialist Equipment,especially Armoured Vehicles.
Agree a lot of posturing, hype and capability. So far tanks parked in a carpark next to Ukraine a cause of great concern maybe he will send them over the border or he won’t, what a game for the Kremlin.
Yeah but at least their tanks are in a carpark 50km away from the border whereas ours are in storage 1000km away, if they’re not in bits in Telford and waiting for new turrets from Germany!
Oh and don’t forget that most of the ammunition for our 120mm is out of production.
Erm, I think the Poles are nearer and are certainly annoyed with Putin’s puppet in Belorus… there are dynamics here that are hard to measure and it could escalate seriously vis
Attack on Kaliningrad by Polish forces.
Movement of Slovak and Hungarian forces into Ukraine and
Forces of Hungary and Romainia move into Moldava and take back break away area.
Russian movement into Baltic States.
Great PC gamesplay there for Christmas.
Biden won’t involve the USA in any military action in the Ukraine, even if it’s only airpower.
And if the EU kicks up a fuss, Russia will just switch off gas supplies to Europe in the middle of winter.
Ah, more sanctions then..
Did anyone just notice our priminister accidentally announcing a political boycott of the next Olympics…..the look on Duncan Smiths face when is question got the to say well we are not sending any ministers so you know that is a political boycott, when 10 mins before he had said there was no boycott, but no minister had planned to go……
The Ukraine is not a NATO member. I struggle to see any military motivation, let alone obligation, for NATO involvement. Is the Ukraine worth going to war for – to me that is the question?! If the USA wishes to get involved, that’s their business. Will UK military involvement get through the House of Commons – I don’t think so. The rest of NATO members are hot air and foul air when the chips are down. Stoltenberg may bark, but he has no military authority. To stop a Russian military invasion of the Ukraine you need a pre-emptive strike and… Read more »
Kuwait is not a NATO member, just sayin’
Oil
Oil. Kuwait is next to Saudi Arabia.
Oil. Ukraine next to NATO.
Or more seriously the strategic consequences are just as great (in fact greater), as are the energy security issues. In 1991 Iraq had the third largest army on earth in terms of numbers of men and tanks.
Yes that was a very interesting study in mass being meaningless without the correct enablers and being able to fight as a peer in all domains.
It showed the lesions from WW2 have even more meaning in the 21C, lose in one domain and you are likely to loss the war and mass will mean nothing more than extra lives to be lost.
“To stop a Russian military invasion of the Ukraine you need a pre-emptive strike…”
Not really, just need a lot of combat air patrols to deter strike aircraft, yes deploy Typhoons and F-22s in the region to prevent Russia achieving air superiority over Ukraine.
And air defence missiles ready. And anti tank defences in place.
Bombers near Black Sea to destroy amp. landings. Or we could move into Belarus at the same time Russia is invading Ukraine, a sort of spoil the party!
Yes very much, prevent Russia dominating the air space will mean it becomes a slog between to large veteran armies, I don’t think Putin would want to gut his armed forces and then try and hold a very large hostile country, it would bankrupt and destroy the Russian millitary and economy.
Similar to Shirreff’s book ‘War with Russia’. NATO couldn’t prevent the Baltic states falling, but could take Kaliningrad. Unlikely to invade a separate sovereign nation though. More likely to try the UN route, get vetoed by Russia, Ukraine appeals for assistance and invites NATO in. Rapid reaction force deployed to Kiev, a la Kosovo. Air power mobilised, ask nicely for Russia to hand back eastern Ukraine. Interesting argument around any Russian complaints about strikes on Russian units in Ukraine uninvited.
Yes, I have read that book.
The entire Russian military is geared to operating within an air-denial bubble within, or close to it’s borders. As soon as they advance 50km or so they will be able to deny non-stealthy flights over Kiev. Russian airpower will be able to operate within that bubble to support ground forces and to hunt stealthy intruders. And the Ukrainians would have to trade ground for time to avoid being clobbered by short(er) ranged Russian artillery, among other reasons. The bubble is not impenetrable or invulnerable but the idea that NATO air forces could degrade it in a couple of weeks is… Read more »
An Russian air-denial bubble over Kiev could only be operated by mobile systems near to or on border with Ukraine. They could be destroyed before being setup properly. An S400 system would take some weeks to setup.
Any Russian air defence system deployed on or near the Ukrainian border to provide an air-denial bubble within it’s borders,
can be clobbered before being setup properly.
There is a obligation look up the Budapest Memorandum.
Mr Putin has already shown his contempt for the West when he sent his assassins to the UK with chemical weapons, when he sent his spy’s in the Europe to blow up storage facilities and when he annexed the Crimea. He is trying to prove a point, and the point is, He pushes and we do nothing. This now get complicated as the Chinese undoubtable will be watching in the wings so if we are now seen to be weak and do nothing allowing Russia to keep the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine or indeed allowing Russia to take more of… Read more »
Biden seems to be standing up to Putin in a non gun-ho way, not seen that, for a long time.
We also need to sanction those rich Russians who own football clubs in the West.
I agree, but don’t forget who was vice president when Mr Putin annexed the Crimea and all that the Ukraine got out of America was a few blankets!!!
Spot on. We can’t keep throwing nations under the bus because we can’t be bothered to stand up for freedoms or it will be us facing far stronger enemies soon. The tools of repression & dictatorship are many times stronger with IT than during the cold war. Russia & China(PRC) are actively hostile against us on many levels & the weaker we are & poorer our decisions, the less inhibited they’ll be. Ukraine may not be a NATO member but it is a major European nation whose soveriengty & integrety is guarenteed by us, the US & Russia. If we… Read more »
My personal opinion is that Mr Putin and Mr Xi realise that its now or never as the West is only now starting to realize the damage we have done to our selves with this slash and burn over the last 30 years to our Armed Forces (and our reputation) we are all on a quick to fix and make good programme, but it will not be till at least 2030 till we are back to some sort of credible fighting force, that’s if the government dose not change and chancel all the projects being put in place by this… Read more »
I have often said that Britain’s armed forces have been reduced once or twice a decade since the end of the Korean War, so much longer than just the last 30 years. There is so much that we cannot now do – we could not repeat Gulf War 1 due to lack of massed armour and we could not repeat an enduring operation on the scale of Afghanistan.
You are quite right that we do not have a Plan B in case sanctions fail.
Hello Graham,
You are quite right, I used 30 years as an example as the most dramatic decline in our capabilities has happened in the last 30 years, To say our political elite and some of our military elite are short sighted would be letting them off lightly I believe that it is bordering on treason.
I feel Putin does these sort of moves when he feels he not getting enough attention from the west but like a bully he finds it hard to make friends and its not like Russia is successful in soft power or cultural exports, so wargames is all they got, plus he must have a small p#nis.
Well given Russia is at least a decade ahead on missile tech and appears to have its procurement practices in order, and can quickly field 200,000 troops on the Ukraine border, I don’t think they are worried at all.
Really and how many of those are conscripts that don’t get paid, how much kit is 50 year old. How did going up against the west with such a military end for saddam. Also in full war footing his economy would collapse quickly
You need to bring your knowledge of Russian forces up to date, the Soviet era is gone, they have a lot of modern equipment that Nato has yet to counter, they also have the industrial might to produce it in large numbers.
Realy like the t14 they barely built the su57 they have 1 production unit, ships they can’t build bigger than frigate size. Yes they have some impressive kit, they do not have large nos of it, there economy can’t handle it. Even the newly modernised tanks they are building instead of t14 are no comparison to western units. Yes they have many units but large amounts are still conscripts with second or third tier kit
Well, at least they don’t throw away good kit (eg challenger 2 ) just for the sake of ‘cost cutting’ the fact they can field an army of 700,000 a navy of 81 fighting vessels, and an airforce of over 1100 combat aircraft I would say indicates a strong economy.
Not really there country has double the population of the U.K. with half the GDP meaning it’s productivity is roughly a quarter of the U.K. 1100 planes great very impressive except there pilots average hours in the air is about sixth of the U.K., there maintenance and parts are rubbish cos it’s not sexy or threatening, 3/4 of those planes date from the 1970 and 1980 same as all their naval units bigger than frigates. Look beyond wiki and global power and actually look into it. Great they have a very impressive elite core of soldiers but the vast bulk… Read more »
2000 Republican Guard elite Tanks – are you sure about that ?
There economy couldn’t stand up to a war footing especially with western countries no longer buying energy, they would collapse very quickly
No. Europe is just one of their energy customers, important but of reducing importance as China s consumption increases. They are also just about the World’s largest exporter of some types of grain. Not forgetting critical to the US exports of titanium products and rocket motors. Anyway, were they to strike Ukraine, in response to a Ukrainian attack on Donbas, may only last for hours. By the way the Russian army active units are contract soldiers, their policy is that conscripts are used in support roles.
Apart from the US, that keeps it’s old tanks and aircraft in the desert boneyard.
The Phantom F4’s the RAF got to defend the Falklands after 82, were brought back to life from the boneyard.
…and the Vulcans and the Victor tankers were on the point of being pensioned off too.
Can Russia’s economy finance a war at scale? How does Russia deal with the consequences of even a limited war? These will be catastrophic in economic terms for a country where many people still at well below the European standard of living – on of the reasons Putin is so keen to distract from his domestic crises. His international foray in Syria make those of any recent U.S. President look mercurially inspired by comparison. Further afield his belligerence is not going unnoticed in Norway, Finland and Sweden. He might be the dose of laxative the Europeans need.
It seems to me that: It may be the case that Putin has not definitely decided to invade, but this could well be because he wants to see just how far he can push the west without any appreciable aggressive response. Sanctions? Already factored in, and he has one or two of his own that Germany in particular may not want to experience with winter in the horizon. Crimea and Sebastopol are more important and the peninsula needs the water. We need our own sides little green men in the shape of much vaunted Special Forces equipped with effective countermearsures,… Read more »
It’s been interesting to read these comments and all the western media hype about 70-175,000 troops (depending on media) we have within a few hundred km of our border, and then there was a article i read in us media about China possibly building Navy base in West Africa and all the concern about that. If these things cause you such concern to you, how is it so hard to understand Russian concern about Ukraine being turned into a NATO forward base? While I understand it is Ukraine right to join NATO and Russia has no say in this, but… Read more »
Ulya – the obvious solution to this problem is for Russia to honour it’s commitments to the Budapest Memorandum in return for a declaration from the other signatories that the Ukraine will NOT currently or in the future make any attempt to join NATO.
Paul, Budapest agreement went out the door with coup, no going back to that, Kiev honouring Minsk agreement and talking to the leaders of Donbas republics to find a political solution would be a good start but I don’t think there is much hope in that
Hello Ulya,
The only real solution is for Russia to pull its troops from the Crimea and the Eastern regions of the Ukraine and then allow an independent state to decide for it’s self what it wants to do. Mr Putin is trying to set himself up as the new Starlin so I guess we must expect a bit of genocide just to keep the history books up to date.
Hello Steven,
I disagree, the only peaceful solution is for all sides to honour the Minsk agreement, Kiev talk to the 2 republics to find political agreement. There is nothing to discuss regarding Crimea, it is Russian and it is a war I would support to defend. Your last paragraph I will politely ignore as pointless
One of the main reasons the Ukraine want’s to join Nato is so it can claim artical 5 has been breached with the invasion of the Crimea (and Eastern Ukraine) so that it can then recover its coast line. So the only way to stop the Ukraine from joining Nato is to give back the Crimea and pull the troops out of the East of the country. My last statement may be pointless but it dose help explain the rationale behind Mr Putin’s thinking as he seems not a person capable of backing down and be seen to do so… Read more »
That is Not on the table by NATO or the US. What matters is what is deployed in Ukraine as a future member of NATO.
The main commitments to be honoured, that will sort this out, is Kiev honouring the Minsk agreements it signed back in 2015. When they do that will be the solution to this problem. Only neither Germany or France, the other signatories, apart from DNR/LDR, seem at all inclined to encourage them to do so. NATO seems to be quite happy letting the pot bubble away, its only Ukrainians that are killing each other.
So, Nato stays out of Ukraine so long as Russia doesn’t invade. NATO stops messing about in Georgia so long as Russia doesn’t invade. Job done?
Completely agree with you Damo
I’ve been to the Caucasus many times. The main road from the airport to Tiblisi is called George Bush avenue. We are not going to give Russia it’s sphere of inflence back. Why would we? The Georgians don’t want a Russian boot on their necks, and Western values are at stake if we condone invasions of states who have democratically chosen self determination. This is the very basis of the Rules-based International System we need to defend.
Damo didn’t say that the Russians had any interests in Georgia and there is no indication of any ‘boots on necks’ plans. Like the US it seems that Russia does not want very low response time weapons on their border and it will, if forced, react to their placement. When the second most senior Senator on the Armed Services Committee in Congress has just said that the US should first strike Russia with Nukes don’t you think that they should be at least a bit worried in Moscow?
That is what Putin wants. Will he stay out of Ukraine or not mess with Georgia? You can bet your life he won’t.
This is my position. Sorry folks. I pray we stay the hell out of Ukraine.
I am sure that in the main we will stay away, at least in public. The Russians showed, when they struck the main command bunker in the battle of Aleppo, that, when push comes to shove, they didn’t care who was inside it. This was a change in strategy to their position only a year earlier at Debaltseve when they allowed western ‘advisors’ out of the cauldron. I doubt that Russsian targetting will differentiate nationalities if they are forced to react in Ukraine. As in so many times in the past there will be ‘collateral damage’ that the rest of… Read more »
I agree. Ukraine right now is as Belgium was in June/July 1914 and Poland was in June /July/Aug 1939. The only difference is that we (UK) don’t currently have a formal agreement to come to the aid of Ukraine if she is attacked by a neighbouring major power aggressor – and neither does the US or NATO.
Daniele, the Iron Lady would of been very disappointed with you! If she was still around, she would of been very supportive of Ukraine.
Morning M.
Supportive yes, which I agree with.
At war with Russia over. No.
Ulya
Just a question ….. Why do you think many Ukrainians wish to join NATO and the EU?
Alan, when you say many Ukrainian wish to join NATO and EU, which Ukrainian? Certainly many from western side, not so many from eastern side, really depends on ethnic back ground. I have no idea of percentage for either group. Personally I care nothing about Ukraine joining EU but for Russia security having Ukraine in NATO with third party military there is a concern, NATO certainly doesn’t like having Russian military so close so why should we be happy? I know many Russians think Russia/Ukraine are brother nations but I am not Slav or orthodox so don’t have that connection… Read more »
Hi Ulya, Thanks for your comments – which I found very interesting to read. In general, you seem to feel that ethnic Ukrainians (consisting of 78% of the population) are more in favour of forging closer ties with the West – than those ethnic Russians in the east of the country. And certainly recent presidential and parliamentary elections in the Ukraine do seem to indicate a majority support for this approach. You feel this sentiment is down to historical grievances – including mass murder and oppression of Ukrainians by the leadership of the old USSR. I certainly agree that all… Read more »
After the establishment of the two breakaway oblasts in the Donbas there was a referendum just like in Crimea. But in this one the majority, although some regarded them as Russian, voted to stay in Ukraine. That put a stop on any Russian moves to absorb them. What they wanted and still it seems want, is for the Minsk agreement, signed by themselves and Kiev with Germany and France, to be implemented, which Kiev has refused to do. That is the core of the problem, Kiev believes that it can force its will on them rather than talk as it… Read more »
I am not sure that many of the citizens of Iraq, Afghanistan and probably Syria regard NATO, or the majority of the important countries in it, as a ‘defensive’ alliance. Just as the Russians don’t regard its eastward march across Europe as appropriate.
Hi John Thanks for your comments on the Minsk agreement. The massing of Russian forces on the border of an independent country doesn’t seem in-line with the spirit of the two protocols. Just for a wee bit of additional balance – I don’t believe NATO as an organisation was involved in the invasion of Iraq. It certainly intervened in Afghanistan – but following an attack on a member state. As for Syria – the criticism directed at Western powers from some quarters is that they are not more engaged! Perhaps you should ask the people of central and eastern Europe… Read more »
You are totally correct in that Ukraine, as a sovereign state, has the right to decide its own future. But as its now a ‘buffer’ state on the border of a major power rather than being part of a major power group, the USSR, it would be prudent, as such states have done for eons, to take into account the sensitivities of that state. That it is intentionally poking its neighbour at every available opportunity is just not sensible or wise. Note that it is not just Russia that reacts this way, China does with its neighbours whilst the US… Read more »
Thanks John
I’m not acting as a cheer-leader for the United States.
Neither am I comfortable with the term “buffer state”.
Like any other European country, Ukraine should have a normal relationship with its neighbours based on mutual respect and understanding. Today, the Czech Republic can have disagreements with modern-day Germany – but it doesn’t have to take into account German “sensitivities” to avoid being destabilised or invaded.
Undoubtedly, Ukraine is on a difficult journey – but perhaps one day Ukrainians (and Russians) will have the same political and economic choices that we enjoy elsewhere in Europe.
I’m sure they will but I’m not sure if will be due to our freedoms being reduced or theirs increased. I look in horror at the rate at which the US and to a lesser extent ourselves are printing money. Effectively bringing forward wealth from the future, that of our children, to spend today. It started in 1971 and has gone exponential. Ironically Russia is easily the most solvent major country there is now, they had their crash in 1991 and are still catching up, our crash is over the horizon, horrors still to come.I’ll keep smiling until my fixed… Read more »
Hi Alan, To blame Russia alone for destabilising Ukraine is wrong, the US/EU had their hand in it also, to me the real question is why did the people of Donbas feel the need to pick up guns to defend themselves from Kiev in the first place? To dismiss it as nothing more than Russian fault means there will never be a peaceful answer so Kiev must talk to them at some stage or nothing will change. Putin has been very clear that he will not allow Kiev to sort this problem out with full military, Russia will send in… Read more »
Hi Ulya Thanks for posting again – and I do enjoy reading your perspective, as do many others on the forum. The European Union has many critics, but in normal diplomacy a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, plus a form of associate membership, would not be viewed as an attempt to “destabilise” that country. Normally trade is good – and increases mutual prosperity. I don’t know enough about the people of the Donbas (I will now try and learn more) – but there is a suspicion elsewhere in Europe that President Putin has inflamed and exploited ethnic tensions in… Read more »
Ukraine joining the EU is the easy one Alan, they expected to be welcomed with open arms like their fellow WP country, Poland. They saw it as a way to dramatically increase their standard of living with huge piles of dosh sent to Kiev as per Warsaw. Only they were both too late, in that a major source of said money was us and we were out the door and no-one else, especially the Poles, was going to give them any of theirs and they had industry and agriculture that could compete too well with France especially. The potential good… Read more »
Hi John, I know – those crazy Ukrainians! All they want to do is open up to the West – have a better life, and increase their standard of living! Who’d a thunk it! 😀
Best regards
Alan
Yes Alan and we can certainly understand that, its just very sad it hasn’t come to pass.The likes of Victoria Nuland had different plans for the. Still, millions do now have better lives, those that fled to the EU or the larger number that went east. Russia has the same problems as us in an aging population. Unlike us, working on it with random alien culture boat people, Russian got millions of common culture immigrants. That was a huge strategic screwup by the US and doubles all round in the Kremlin. All the best from MK John
😉