Western officials said there is no evidence of any significant Russian force build-up in Belarus.
Officials were asked by journalists about suggestions of a build-up of up to two corps in Belarus alongside diversionary operations elsewhere.
“We have no indicators and warnings of any significant number. When I say significant, I’m not underplaying and saying there’s a battalion. I’m saying we’re not seeing any numbers of Russian forces in Belarus seeking to either augment the conflict in Ukraine or move west.”
The Western official reinforced the point and expressed some frustration at how often it recurs. “This is persistent. It keeps coming back up“ the official said, adding that there is “no evidence from overhead imagery or from intelligence that tells us that there is a significant build up in Belarus, but it is a surprisingly persistent piece of reporting.”
Asked to state Russia’s war aim in the terms a NATO exercise would use, officials described an objective that has not changed.
It concerns “subjugation of Ukraine, not allowing Ukraine to drift into the West’s sphere of influence, and not allowing it to join NATO”, a Western official said, describing it as having become almost a no-fail objective for Putin even though no tangible route to victory is visible.
One official or many? How do the kids say.. pics or it didn’t happen? Or I suppose in this case, names or they’re lying.
I suspect that this is probably true, in regards to large formations building up in Belarus and Russia along the Baltics. However, I also suspect there is a lot of “military like” activity along those borders. very similar to the build up around Crimea with the “green men”, so deniable state actors. It has also been reported that similar occurrences are happening on the Russian side of the Finnish border.
But it does raise a number of questions of what men and materiel does Russia have, that is not tied up with defending cities/towns and energy infrastructure, but also in Putin’s Ukraine faux pas? Do they actually have the capability to carry out a full on offensive against a NATO country? Or are they lining up for some nuisance raids, where they can deny direct involvement?